Official NFL thread 2023-2024

[bill5]

In fairness, what I saw of Mattison he seemed not flashy but more than capable. Time will tell!

[ProfD]

As player salaries have ballooned, none of these cost-cutting moves surprises me. 

 

Otherwise, the future of the NFL is players will get what appears to be a huge contract. 

 

The most significant figure a player will receive is the signing bonus and/or guaranteed money.

 

A few years later, that player will be cut or traded to another team.   

 

Most contracts will never be fulfilled.  The NFL is a business first and foremost. 😎

[bill5]

Here is my ridiculously early, I'm bored so why not thoughts on the divisons:

 

AFC East: This is the "division of pretty good" IMO. The Bills I felt were overrated last year and are this year and for the same reason: they just don't have enough horses. Nobody outside of Jefferson scares me receiver-wise and the RB game again looks iffy. That said, they will probably take the division. The Fins? Tua can't stay healthy and they also have too many other question marks. The Jets? If - and it's a big if - Rodgers has a big rebound season, it's possible, but I doubt that happens. The Pats are simply not good enough and will be lucky to not have a losing season.

 

AFC North: The Bengals are favs to win this division and go far, but the Ravens could as well. Amazingly this team caved to Jackson and he has the best receivers he's ever had and his stud RB is back. The Steelers are interesting but not there just yet. The Browns are the Browns and will disappoint as always. 

 

AFC South: Who cares?   Honestly I don't see whoever wins this division - mostly by default - going far. Probably the Jags because the others are rebuilding. The Texans and Colts are rebuilding and the Titans will be very soon.

 

AFC West: The Chiefs are the Chiefs and IMO headed to another SB. The Chargers are interesting but also don't have enough horses, the Raiders and Broncos even less so. 

 

 

NFC East:  The Eagles are taking this divison easily as they are totally stocked. They will be in the hunt for a SB again. Hopefully Fields learns to throw the long ball by then. The Cowboys could surprise but I have no faith in McCarthy calling the plays. The Commanders and Giants are wannabes and no serious threat.

 

NFC North: An interesting division. The Vikes are like the Bills and Cowboys, good but pretenders. The Lions are REALLY interesting. Can they - finally - become a legit great team? The pieces appear to be there but like the Browns they are so talented at schmucking things up, I will believe it when I see it. The Bears and the Pack, see ya next year.

 

NFC South:  This is pretty much a coin flip but I give the Falcons the edge, assuming Ridder progresses reasonably well. If Kamala and Thomas (WR) come back full speed, Carr could lead them to a title too. TB with Mayfield, yeah see ya next year. The Panthers will show promise with Young, but they don't have enough support for him yet. Nobody in this division is a contender though.

 

NFC West: The 49ers should be battling the Eagles for the SB. The Cards will be pathetic. The Rams if they stay healthy could be a threat, but they need a viable WR other than Kupp to step up. The Seahawks could be a real threat as well if Geno Smith repeats his performance.

 

[ToddP]

I think the Raiders are biding their time until Mahomes retires lol

[Anderton]

I'm moving this to the Keyboard Corner, which hosts the sports-related threads.

[ProfD]

My early scribbled predictions:

 

AFC East--Stefan Diggs is the Bills' big play WR. Jefferson is still a Viking WR. Bills still strongest team on paper.

 

AFC North--Ravens and Bengals will battle for the title.

 

AFC South--Jags have the better team balance. However, if the Titans do sign WR DeAndre Hopkins, that should take a load off RB Henry and make the Titans better.  QB Tanehill has to stay healthy and manage the games.

 

AFC West--Chiefs rule the division. I'll be convinced the Chargers are lefit if they added a few more pieces to help QB Herbert. 

 

NFC East--QB Hurts should be able to lead the Eagles back to the title.   QB Fields is a Bear.

 

NFC North-- Vikings should be able to walk through the division even though the Lions will put up a fight.

 

NFC South--QB Carr will play better for the Saints than the Red Rifle. No shortage of weapons around him at RB and WR. Saints should win the division. 

 

NFC West--49ers should cruise through the division and possibly redeem themselves in a championship game against the Eagles. 

 

Of course, it only takes an injury to change a team's fortunes. Hopefully, all teams will remain healthy and competitive.😎

[bill5]

23 hours ago, ProfD said:

My early scribbled predictions:

 

AFC East--Stefan Diggs is the Bills' big play WR. Jefferson is still a Viking WR.

Whoops and doh. uh yeah that's what I meant!

[GovernorSilver]

Chargers 2022 offense was held back by the predictable playcalling of Joe Lombardi and injuries to the WR corps.

 

For 2023 they replaced Lombardi with Kellen Moore, who was the more productive OC by every measure, while maintaining a 50-50 run-pass balance.   He knows how to use these players more effectively than Joe ever did.  They replaced the S&C coach - maybe the new one will be better at keeping the players healthy, though keeping players healthy on that cursed SoFi turf is a daunting ask.   Quentin Johnston was drafted to bolster that WR corps. By all reports he had a solid minicamp, fit in with the other players, and is the favorite to claim the #3 WR spot.    He doesn't have much competition for #3 - as neither Palmer nor Guyton are starter material.

 

Chiefs will continue to rule the AFCW until someone knocks them off.  Chargers always play them close though, with both 2022 contests decided by 3 points.  We'll see if they can make the Chiefs sweat a little more in 2023.

[Geoff Grace]

There’s been a lot of talk lately about how much the running back position is being devalued by the NFL, with star running backs struggling to earn as much as kickers and making considerably less money than cornerbacks; but it looks even worse when compared to other sports. For instance, let’s look at today’s news:

Saquon Barkley signed a one-year contract, worth $10.1 million and up to $11 million with incentives. The best player on the Giants had to settle for just over 10 million dollars. In the NBA, the second best player on the Celtics, Jaylen Brown, agreed to record 5-year, $304 million deal: $52.3 million for the first year alone. In the meantime, soccer superstar Kylian Mbappé was reportedly offered over $776 million for one-year deal by Saudi Arabian soccer club Al Hilal. That’s about 77 times as much as Saquon Barkley! Granted, Barkley is merely the best player on his team, while Mbappé is arguably the best soccer player in the world; but that disparity is over the top.

More here:

Saquon Barkley signs adjusted franchise tag, joins Giants

Jaylen Brown, Celtics agree to record 5-year, $304M supermax extension

I’m sure many of us here remember when the running back position was the most important one in the NFL. How easily can we remember who the quarterback was on Jim Brown’s team or Gale Sayers’ team? We’ve come a long way to land in this quarterback driven era. Even so, how many times have we been told that you have to establish the run to open up the passing game? The NFL’s current solidarity on not paying running backs what they’re worth is a miscarriage of justice.

Best,

Geoff

[bill5]

43 minutes ago, Geoff Grace said:

There’s been a lot of talk lately about how much the running back position is being devalued by the NFL

omg. Ya think? I'm so sick of it. Dear NFL media, it's a more pass-dominated sport now, get over it and find another story.

 

Quote

with star running backs struggling to earn as much as kickers

?? The top RBs earn WAY more than even the top PKs.

 

Quote

I’m sure many of us here remember when the running back position was the most important one in the NFL.

I don't remember ever such a time. And I'm old.   Of course it used to be more so, and there were some teams for which that might have been true, but they were the exception even then. 

 

Quote

The NFL’s current solidarity on not paying running backs what they’re worth is a miscarriage of justice.

Oh cmon. RBs aren't getting huge contacts because RBs just aren't as important as they used to be. Look at the SB champs in recent years. How many rode the back of a top RB to victory? None. The last one I can think of that's even close is the Terrell Davis Broncos, and they had a not so bad QB in Elway.

 

[Geoff Grace]

5 hours ago, bill5 said:

?? The top RBs earn WAY more than even the top PKs.

 

I don't remember ever such a time. And I'm old.   Of course it used to be more so, and there were some teams for which that might have been true, but they were the exception even then.

You're right about the kickers comparison. I should have said, "with many running backs struggling to earn as much as star kickers." The top earning placekickers are making about half of what Saquon Barkley signed for. Most NFL running backs are currently earning less on average than the top paid kickers, but 14 or 15 of them aren't.

 

As for being old, most of us posting in this thread qualify to one degree or another. Let me put it this way, when I was a kid in Wisconsin in the '60s, Paul Hornung was "The Golden Boy," not Bart Starr; and Vince Lombardi's offensive game plan was "Run to Daylight." The Packers won five championships that decade with a run based strategy. The Browns won their championship in 1964 on the back of Jim Brown. That makes at least six champion seasons of the Sixties that were based on the run, which is why I can safely say I remember when the running back position was the most important one in the NFL.

 

That said, the main thing that prompted my post above wasn't the recent running backs vs the rest of the NFL controversy as much as the comparison of one of the NFL's top running back salaries to those in other sports, after that news broke today. The best player on the NFL Giants will be earning a fifth as much as the second best player on the NBA Celtics and only a little over one percent of what the (possibly) best player in soccer has been offered. That's a stark contrast!

 

Best,

 

Geoff

[ProfD]

5 hours ago, Geoff Grace said:

Saquon Barkley signed a one-year contract, worth $10.1 million and up to $11 million with incentives. The best player on the Giants had to settle for just over 10 million dollars.

I hope the only reason RB Saquon Barkley took this 1 year deal was in order to get out of NY in 2024.😎

 

 

 

 

[jazzpiano88]

4 hours ago, Geoff Grace said:

That said, the main thing that prompted my post above wasn't the recent running backs vs the rest of the NFL controversy as much as the comparison of one of the NFL's top running back salaries to those in other sports, after that news broke today. The best player on the NFL Giants will be earning a fifth as much as the second best player on the NBA Celtics and only a little over one percent of what the (possibly) best player in soccer has been offered. That's a stark contrast!

 

Best,

 

Geoff

Yep the heyday of RB and even WR is gone in favor of the QB and the salaries reflect that.    
 

Zero active Running backs in all time rushing top 25.  
One active WR in all time receiving top 25.  

7 active QBs in top 25 all time passing.   
 

 

Your comparison with other sports is right on.   I don’t know how the NFL players could have a worse deal, given the horrific contract terms, risk of injury, and money generated by the league.  

[bill5]

8 hours ago, Geoff Grace said:

As for being old, most of us posting in this thread qualify to one degree or another. Let me put it this way, when I was a kid in Wisconsin in the '60s, Paul Hornung was "The Golden Boy," not Bart Starr; and Vince Lombardi's offensive game plan was "Run to Daylight." The Packers won five championships that decade with a run based strategy. The Browns won their championship in 1964 on the back of Jim Brown. That makes at least six champion seasons of the Sixties that were based on the run, which is why I can safely say I remember when the running back position was the most important one in the NFL.

But without Bart Starr and Otto Graham, IMO those titles likely wouldn't have happened. Sure the game was more run-based then, but even then the QB was still the single most important position on the team. 

 

Quote

That said, the main thing that prompted my post above wasn't the recent running backs vs the rest of the NFL controversy as much as the comparison of one of the NFL's top running back salaries to those in other sports, after that news broke today.

Kind of apples and oranges IMO. For example, basketball players start five guys and perhaps what, 8-10 play at all in a game. NFL teams start 24 and perhaps near double that overall. There are also many coaches vs one and a much larger staff overall. etc...

[ProfD]

Even Christian McCaffrey thinks RB salaries being held hostage is criminal:

 

https://www.sfgate.com/49ers/article/christian-mccaffrey-nfl-rb-pay-18257620.php

 

When it was time for RB McCaffrey to sign a new deal, there was no hesitation or franchise tag despite the fact that he's injury prone. 😎

[GovernorSilver]

17 hours ago, Geoff Grace said:

There’s been a lot of talk lately about how much the running back position is being devalued by the NFL

 

 

Austin Ekeler contributed to that by hosting a Zoom call in response to Jacobs, Pollard, and Barkley failing to land contract extensions - at the time of the call of course

 

https://larrybrownsports.com/football/nfl-running-backs-agents-contract-complaint/618052

 

Agents are part of the NFL business so it's not a surprise they're among the targets of the RBs' complaints

 

Ekeler himself reportedly requested a trade because he didn't get an extension offer that he liked.  His situation was eventually resolved  but he's going to test the market when his contract is up.  The Chargers haven't been able to find a younger RB with the talent to replace his production (20 TDs in 2022), so he has a bit of leverage there.  

 

Unfortunately for these star RB, both Superbowl contestants  this past winter got here with RB-by-committee supporting star QBs.

[Geoff Grace]

5 hours ago, bill5 said:

But without Bart Starr and Otto Graham, IMO those titles likely wouldn't have happened. Sure the game was more run-based then, but even then the QB was still the single most important position on the team.

 

Just to be clear, I'm not trying to say that the quarterbacks were unimportant; and there would have been no "daylight" to run to if it hadn't been for the linemen opening holes in the defense. Nonetheless, it makes no sense to me to claim that the quarterback was the single most important position on a run-based offense, especially since the run by committee approach wasn't the norm back then.

 

9 hours ago, JazzPiano88 said:

Yep the heyday of RB and even WR is gone in favor of the QB and the salaries reflect that.    
 

Zero active Running backs in all time rushing top 25.  
One active WR in all time receiving top 25.  

7 active QBs in top 25 all time passing.   
 

Your comparison with other sports is right on.   I don’t know how the NFL players could have a worse deal, given the horrific contract terms, risk of injury, and money generated by the league.  

 

The way I see it is that they may be tied together. As NFL positions become devalued and remain more dangerous, will talented athletes gravitate to other sports that pay better and have less severe injury risk?

 

At this point, I believe rule changes over the past 50 years favoring the quarterback carry most of the responsibility for the active all time statistics you cited; but the risk/reward ratio is clearly better in other sports. If Jim Brown or Jerry Rice were kids today, would they choose football over other sports; and if they did, would they choose to play the same positions? If football isn't already suffering from a talent drain, it could very well happen in the years ahead.

 

Best,

 

Geoff

[bill5]

6 minutes ago, Geoff Grace said:

 

Just to be clear, I'm not trying to say that the quarterbacks were unimportant; and there would have been no "daylight" to run to if it hadn't been for the linemen opening holes in the defense. Nonetheless, it makes no sense to me to claim that the quarterback was the single most important position on a run-based offense, especially since the run by committee approach wasn't the norm back then.

It depends on the specifics. I agree Jim Brown was the most important guy for those Brown teams. Hornung? Nah. He was great but remember he was only half of the dynamic RB duo along with Jim Taylor. 

 

Quote

If Jim Brown or Jerry Rice were kids today, would they choose football over other sports; and if they did, would they choose to play the same positions? If football isn't already suffering from a talent drain, it could very well happen in the years ahead.

Good point. I think most would, because football is what they're good at and what they love. Great football players aren't necessarily good at other sports (i.e. good enough to star in them at the professional level). But more money/less injury risk are powerful motivators too.

[Geoff Grace]

More contract news:

Andrew Thomas agrees to massive $117 million contract extension with Giants

(Thomas is the Giants’ left tackle.)

Chargers sign QB Justin Herbert to 5-year, $262.5M extension

Best,

Geoff

[GovernorSilver]

Herbert's contract extension will lower his 2024 cap figure by about $10 mill.  The Chargers will have to let veterans like Mack and Allen walk in 2024 or later because of the total salary cap, but the $10 mill in cap savings will give them more options.   

 

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/07/chargers-sign-qb-justin-herbert-to-five-year-extension

 

Joe Burrow is waiting for his own contract extension, which is currently under negotiations.  He can and should get a richer contract extension soon, having led his team to playoff wins and a Superbowl appearance.

[Geoff Grace]

Coincidence?

Aaron Rodgers signs reworked contract with Jets

Jets laud Aaron Rodgers' sacrifice as Dalvin Cook set to visit

 

I wish Rodgers would have done the same for the Packers; but then, Randall Cobb aside, I'm not sure Green Bay would have been as likely to bring in the players Rodgers wanted. The Jets have shown a great willingness in that regard.

Best,

Geoff

[bill5]

Can you believe pre-season is right around the corner?

[jazzpiano88]

11 minutes ago, bill5 said:

Can you believe pre-season is right around the corner?

 

I know.   Every year when August rolls around, I'm amazed at the stability of our solar system. 

[ProfD]

On 7/26/2023 at 8:05 PM, GovernorSilver said:

Herbert's contract extension...

Justin Herbert is the highest paid QB in the league and he hasn't won a playoff game yet.😁

 

Let's see if commissioner Goodell insures the Chargers make it to the playoffs and wins at least one game.🤣😎

[GovernorSilver]

37 minutes ago, ProfD said:

Justin Herbert is the highest paid QB in the league and he hasn't won a playoff game yet.😁

 

Let's see if commissioner Goodell insures the Chargers make it to the playoffs and wins at least one game.🤣😎

 

He'll be the highest paid QB for only a few minutes.

 

As previously mentioned, Joe Burrow has a contract extension of his own under negotiation right now, as in July 2023.   Unlike the PAC-12 media deal that has been promised "any day now" for more than 12 months, Burrow's extension is sure to be done well in advance of the 2023 preseason.  When it's done, Burrow will be the highest paid QB, for exactly the reason you reference (more playoff wins than Herbert)

[bill5]

Sean Payton makes ass of self IMO: https://www.nfl.com/news/sean-payton-takes-shot-at-nathaniel-hackett-era-broncos-vows-to-do-opposite-one-

 

Trying to pass blame for Wilson's bad performance off on the coaches, GM, etc? Has he even watched any tape of Wilson last year? 

[Geoff Grace]

Sean Payton can think what he likes, but it was a poor choice to say that in public. As the Broncos new head coach, he'll have to show he can do better this season. Otherwise, he'll be fair game for the same criticism he dished out.

 

If Payton can design an offense that will make Russell Wilson shine again, I'll be happy. He did it for a six-foot tall Drew Brees, maybe he can do it for Wilson, who's an inch-and-a-half shorter. Obviously, you're throwing blind if your view is obscured by linemen who are a half foot taller. I'm not saying that's the main reason for Wilson's poor showing last year, but it's probably part of it. Payton ought to know how to work around that problem.

 

Best,

 

Geoff

[ProfD]

6 hours ago, GovernorSilver said:

He'll be the highest paid QB for only a few minutes.

 

When it's done, Burrow will be the highest paid QB, for exactly the reason you reference (more playoff wins than Herbert)

Sure.

 

But, Herbert's contract proves that a QB doesn't have to win significantly in order to get paid.

 

It flies counter to the discussions and hoops QB Lamar Jackson had to jump through in order to get his deal done.

 

NFL QBs are receiving record breaking contracts mainly based on the salary structure moreso than performance and/or accomplishments.

 

Imagjne how great former NFL QBs must feel seeing what these kids are getting paid nowadays. 😁😎

[GovernorSilver]

6 hours ago, ProfD said:

 

 

NFL QBs are receiving record breaking contracts mainly based on the salary structure moreso than performance and/or accomplishments.

 

 

Thus by the end of this summer, Joe Burrow will be making more than Justin Herbert.  It doesn't really matter exactly why - whether it's just the NFL structure or his better production.

 

Justin Herbert being the highest paid QB does nothing for me, emotionally.  Does not excite me, nor would I have been heartbroken if he got paid like n RB.  😀  That's why I didn't post that news.  All the franchise QBs make more money that I ever dreamed of and this will continue as long as people watch NFL football, so to me this is like talking about water being wet.   

 

Herbert helped himself by complying with the NFL business framework, unlike Lamar Jackson.  What I mean of course is working with an NFL agent - in his case Athletes First, which also counts Dak Prescott, Rodgers, and Deshaun Watson among their client.   Athletes First worked out his new deal while Herbert himself went fishing and golfing.   I'm pretty sure tAthletes First did not approach negotiations with the attitude "Let's make sure Justin gets paid less than Burrow because it would be so unfair, what with Justin not having a single playoff win".  No sir, Athletes First went in with the goal of securing as much money as possible for the client, because that's what agents do, and the more the client makes the more Athletes First makes.

 

 We learned that the NFL will punish you if you act as your own agent.

 

That said I suspect Trevor Lawrence would be treated more leniently than Lamar if he decided to be his own agent on his contract extension negotiations when the time comes, and we both know why.  In either case, Trevor would then become the highest paid QB for exactly the reasons you state.

[GovernorSilver]

for you, @Geoff Grace.  Despite the video title, the first half of the video is Ekeler answering questions about that Zoom call with fellow high profile RBs.  I'm surprised the official Chargers channel posted this actually.    Quite a bit of food for thought for those who have the patience to listen to the entire interview

 

https://youtu.be/WtdQcBKz5FE