Official NFL 2006-2007 Thread

[meccajay]

[font:Georgia]In past Superbowls, the #1 Offense from one conference has faced the #1 Defense from the other conference 4 times. The #1 defense won all 4 times.

 

Bears 24

 

Colts 20

 

That said I'm routing for Tony Dungy! [/font]

[MikeT156]

Mecca:

 

That's interesting. I wonder how injuries will play into the game? Da Bears have a few key players out for the seasonn, and a few of the Colts aren't in grea shape either. I'm hoping its a GOOD game, no blowout.

 

I'd like to see the Colts win.

 

Mike T.

[SilverDragonSoun]

Mecca:

 

I'm hoping its a GOOD game, no blowout.

 

I'd like to see the Colts win.

 

Mike T.

 

Mike I agree 110% with you here. I hate it when the games are blowouts. A good competitive game would be great and a Colts victory would be very nice!

[Geoff Grace]

I can't even decide who to root for let alone pick. My mind says Indy will win while my gut says it'll be Chicago. But I don't have any feeling that a particular scenario is real like I did last week. That occurrence was a feeling of clarity rather than just a feeling, if that makes any sense.

 

I too would like to see Dungy and Manning get the monkeys off their backs, but Chicago is closer to home for me and more of a sentimental favorite.

 

I'll probably wind up rooting for the Colts though.

 

Best,

 

Geoff

[Jeff Klopmeyer]

Go Bears!

 

Indy 31, Bears 13.

 

- Jeff

[kanker.]

Mecca:

 

I'm hoping its a GOOD game, no blowout.

 

I'd like to see the Colts win.

 

Mike T.

 

Mike I agree 110% with you here. I hate it when the games are blowouts. A good competitive game would be great and a Colts victory would be very nice!

In spite of my prediction, I'm hoping for the Colts to blow the Bears right out of Miami.

[GovernorSilver]

Our Charger coaching staff was plundered yet again - this time our LB coach Manusky was hired as the Niners' new DC.

 

As for the Superbowl, I'll say:

 

Colts 27

Bears 24

 

Rex Grossman's turnovers will be the difference. Bob Sanders will make a huge INT. Manning gets all the pre-game hype, but Addai puts on a show.

[jackpine]

Ok I tried to quote my favorite article of the week....

 

Here's the full link ,

 

My god the Bears are in the superbowl and I'm about to wet my pants..... sorry.

 

Dallas Morning news article.

 

 

When you understand what it takes to win Super Bowls, there is shockingly little about the Colts to like.

 

It's not just the city of Chicago that loves the Bears.

 

The Super Bowl Formula wholeheartedly embraces them, too.

 

The formula I unveiled in January 1990 uses a variety of regular-season statistics to predict Super Bowl winners. At the time it was created, those numbers would produce the right answer for 20 of the 23 Super Bowls that had been played.

 

Over the next decade it went 8-1-1 before I had a falling out with the formula when it predicted the St. Louis Rams to beat New England five years ago.

AP

Devin Hester gives Chicago a huge edge in the net kickoff/punt return touchdowns category.

 

I should have understood that there needed to be a separate category that said, "If you ever find Bill Belichick coaching against Mike Martz in a huge game, throw out the numbers and do the smart thing."

 

I was tempted to tweak the categories a bit now that we have 40 years of games to look at but will save it for another time because it would be absolutely meaningless for Sunday's game.

 

There are 13 categories that relate to Super Bowl XLI. The Bears get the edge not only in 10, but in THE MOST IMPORTANT 10.

 

That's right.

 

Everything that has been a true indicator of Super Bowl superiority favors the team that oddsmakers inexplicably have made a 7-point underdog.

 

This reminds me of Oakland being favored against Tampa Bay, even of Dan Marino's Dolphins being made slight favorites against San Francisco. Both were blowouts that went the other way.

 

The formula could have told them that.

 

Chicago has an edge over the Colts in these 10 categories:

 

Win-loss record. Defensive rush per carry (huge edge). Offensive rushing attempts. Net kick-punt returns for touchdown (huge edge). Defensive rushes allowed. Points allowed. Rushing TDs allowed (huge edge). Net penalty yards (huge edge). Sacks. Fewest pass attempts.

 

What makes these factors important?

 

A few examples:

 

Teams with best win-loss record are 24-9 in Super Bowls.

 

Teams with fewer points allowed are 28-11.

 

Teams with fewer rushing attempts allowed are 29-11.

 

Teams that run the ball more often are 26-13.

 

The Bears, in all cases cited, are this team.

 

The Colts rate an edge in two passing categories completion percentage, yards per attempt and also in yards per carry.

 

Those statistics are nearly irrelevant in gauging Super Bowl success, but I felt compelled to toss a couple of passing numbers in there, so they earn a few points for the Colts.

 

Add the categories and their values, and the Bears win by a count of 79-8.

 

That's not a prediction of a score. But it should dispel the myth of Colts dominance that the oddsmakers' line has established for this game.

 

Super Bowls generally are won by teams that control the clock, run the ball better, defend the run better and sometimes make big plays in special teams.

 

In the playoffs, the Colts haven't played as bad as their regular-season numbers on defense. But they still aren't playing at the level of the Bears, who all but mocked the New Orleans Saints' running game.

 

In addition, the Colts have the worst kick coverage unit in the league, and they are going against the most dangerous return man in Devin Hester.

 

All of this leads to one final thought.

 

When Peyton Manning says, as he did Tuesday, "All I have to do is go out and do my job," he's kidding himself.

 

For the Colts to win, Manning has to be special. He has to be fantastic.

 

Even that probably would not be enough against a team as superior physically and defensively as the Bears.

 

The formula has spoken.

 

Let the shift in the betting line begin.

 

THE FORMULA

 

Statistic Pts. Bears Colts Winner

W-L record 13 13-3 12-4 Bears

Def. rush per carry 10 4.0 5.3 Bears

Net kick-punt ret. TDs 8 +5 -2 Bears

Off. rushes att. 8 503 439 Bears

Def. rushes allowed 8 402 519 Bears

Pts. allowed 7 255 360 Bears

Rush TDs allowed 7 7 20 Bears

Net penalty yards 7 +161 -51 Bears

Sacks 6 40 25 Bears

Fewest pass attempts 5 514 557 Bears

Yds. per rush 3 3.8 4.0 Colts

Yds. per pass att. 3 6.70 7.89 Colts

Comp. pct. 2 54.9 65.0 Colts

Totals 79 8

[jackpine]

Jeez... sorry for the bad quote job. Really... I'm higher than a kite on my Bears

[kanker.]

Dude - you live in Wisconsin. Why aren't they running you out of the state for being a Bears fan?

 

 

 

Oh, and thanks for coming back for another year Favre! God will once again be under center for the Pack.

[Geoff Grace]

Oh, and thanks for coming back for another year Favre! God will once again be under center for the Pack.

 

 

Best,

 

Geoff

[SilverDragonSoun]

Today is the big day. How are you celebrating the big day? I'm doing the BBQ thing with my mom and girlfriend while watching the game at home. Nothing special but a relaxing day with family is good for me.

[jackpine]

Dude - you live in Wisconsin. Why aren't they running you out of the state for being a Bears fan?

 

 

I grew up in Chicago. Family had season tickets. Just happened to migrate north in 1984.

 

The funny thing is I'm only 75 miles from the twin cities and all the river jumpers have cabins ALL around me so there are a ton of Vikings fans in the bars on Sundays. Add in the Packer fans and it's a real cluster.

 

Fun part for me is that even 10 years ago when the Bears were REALLY bad I'd still don the jersey and root for my Bears down at the local pub.

 

The past 2 years have just been great revenge for me.

 

Oh.... and did I mention

 

 

 

 

GO BEARS!!!!!!

[Dave Bryce]

I'm another one whose mind says Colts, but gut says Bears.

 

I honestly think I'm gonna pull for the Bears, though...as much as I'd really like to see Dungy, Harrison and the rest of the Colts win one, I'm just so freakin' tired of hearing about Peyton Manning and seeing Peyton Manning that I'd kinda like to see him lose.

 

Also, as much as everyone keeps saying that Devin Hester is the X factor (how much of an X factor can he be if Vinatieri keeps the ball away from him?), I think the actual X factor is the lack of respect the Bears are getting going into this. I figure it'll give them this little extra bit of lift.

 

Plus, I too am a big believer that the team with the better D has a better chance.

 

That being said, I really have very little emotional stake in the game, so I'm mostly hoping it's entertaining...but it may have a hard time living up to the 2nd half of the AFC championship.

 

I hope all my KC football brethren enjoy this Holy Football day!

 

dB

[MidLifeCrisis]

I think the actual X factor is the lack of respect the Bears are getting going into this. I figure it'll give them this little extra bit of lift.

 

Good point. This games reminds me of the 2001 Rams vs Pats game. Everyone figured the greatest show on turf would run it up on the Pats. But a good game plan and a very aggressive defense took the Rams speed away from them.

 

The Bears play pretty aggressive defense so there is the possibility that they shut Peyton and Co. down.

 

Only a few hours to game time. Can't wait to see how this game plays out.

 

[keynote]

I'm another one whose mind says Colts, but gut says Bears.

 

That being said, I really have very little emotional stake in the game, so I'm mostly hoping it's entertaining...but it may have a hard time living up to the 2nd half of the AFC championship.

 

dB

 

I'm going with the Colts but not necessarily because of Manning hoping to get his first Super Bowl ring, if that means anything. I suppose it does to him though. :grin:

 

As far as being entertaining, let's hope so. As we know a lot of Super Bowls are duds and can even be downright boring.

 

>> Could someone please pass the guacamole and chips? That may be as good as it gets btw. But I'll hope for the best.

[Geoff Grace]

>> Could someone please pass the guacamole and chips? That may be as good as it gets btw. But I'll hope for the best.

 

Got six layer dip here.

 

Don't forget the Prince halftime show.

 

Maybe there'll be a few funny commercials too.

 

And with Prince and Rex performing at the same venue, where are all of the obligatory royalty references the media is expected to make?

 

Not that I'm complaining...

 

By the way, don't expect his royal badness to make a lot of signature dance moves -- I heard on NPR that Prince may need hip replacement surgery ... no lie!

 

(Please no geriatric jokes. Prince is only a few months older than I am. It's called middle age -- at least that's what I keep telling myself! )

 

Best,

 

Geoff

 

P.S. I was just informed that Super Bowl Sunday is, not surprisingly, the top pizza delivery day of the year.

[kanker.]

YEAHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

I can't believe it.

[Jazz+]

Who's playing in that Superbowl?

[SilverDragonSoun]

What a physical but kicking that was. I can't remember a game where the offensive and defensive lines dominated so clearly on both sides of the ball. At least it was a closer game score wise to keep the interest in the game.

 

 

Congratulations to the Colts and their Fans!!

 

Kanker buddy go out and celebrate this one!!!

[MidLifeCrisis]

Big props to Tony Dungy. He is an outstanding human being. I wish more sports professionals set as good example for life as he does.

Peyton did well but not outstanding. I thought the two running backs should have split the MVP. the Colt D stepped up big time.

And Rex was....well.... he was just Rex.

 

[kanker.]

Big props to Tony Dungy. He is an outstanding human being. I wish more sports professionals set as good example for life as he does.

Peyton did well but not outstanding. I thought the two running backs should have split the MVP. the Colt D stepped up big time.

And Rex was....well.... he was just Rex.

I agree on all your points.

 

WHat really blows me away is that if you take away the opening kickoff, it was 29-10. Our 'D' really kicked a$$ this post season. They really turned it around.

[kanker.]

Kanker buddy go out and celebrate this one!!!

Heh, I'm definitely enjoying this. Indy hasn't had a Major league championship since the ABA Pacers, and that's before my time really, so this is all just stunning me. I never expected the Colts to win a Super Bowl - ever.

[ProfD]

That was a good game. Yep, take away the kickoff return and the score would have been a little more lopsided. But, then again, those 8 turnovers could have swung the momentum either way too.

 

It appeared Da Bears offense played a little too conservatively. Once Rex threw up those jump balls, I see why. Their defense tried to keep them in the game.

 

I think Indy's RBs clearly deserved to share the MVP honors moreso than Manning getting it. Those cats ran all over the field, enabling Indy to control the ball/clock.

 

Nonetheless, congrats to kanker who (pessimistically ) rooted for his Colts all season.

 

Also, congrats to jackpine for sticking with Da Bears throughout the season. Your team made it further than 30 others teams.

 

Enjoyed my first season hanging out with fellow KC forumites who have an appreciation for the pigskin.

 

Let's start talking about the 2007-2008 season soon!

 

[Griffinator]

Meh. Game was really disappointing. Like a re-run of the AFC championship, except the NE offense was better.

 

Enjoy that ring, Peyton, it'll be the last one you'll ever get. Salary Cap is gonna hit the Colts in the teeth this offseason, and they'll be right back to a suck-ass defense next year...

[Magpel]

Well, I thoroughly enjoyed the game, even though it should havebeen more like a 40-10 affair.

 

The AFC is just way better.

 

I've come to the conclusion that the Colts are a really, really good team--another impressive rushing performance againts a top, non-flu ridden defense. And their D has played 4 good games in a row when it counted most. Bears did break 100 yards rushing, but 50 came on one play, and about 35, I'd guess, came against a prevent on desperation drives.

 

It was amazing that as late as the 4th Q, you're thinking the Colts have done eveything within their power to keep the Bears in striking distance--missed PAT, missed short FG, not converting drives into TDs, the unsportsmanlike tacked on to the short kickoff. It had all the earmarks of a franchise-devastating tragedy, but the Bears just couldn't get it together on either side of the ball.

 

I heard some analyst suggest tha the Bears's D played a decnet game. Umm, excuse me? they were shredded like a...paper tiger. So what if their offense couldn't move. Your a defensive monster, supposedly, already spotted a special teams TD and a first possession TO. The Colts ran for close to 200 yards! Yikes!

 

Well, again, not a classic but certainly a super bowl oddity to remember, and the right team, in spades, won. Great run for this team.

 

 

[Geoff Grace]

Great first half of football in the rain -- wild and unpredictable: Devin Hester's opening touchdown, Adam Vinatieri's missed field goal, and turnovers left and right.

 

Too bad the second half was almost completely one-sided.

 

I'm glad the officiating was good this year.

 

Congrats to kanker and the Colts. I'm glad the monkey's finally off of Tony Dungy's and Peyton Manning's backs.

 

Oh, and I thought Prince's halftime show was pretty good as these things go.

 

Best,

 

Geoff

[daBowsa]

Congrats Kanker! I told your Colts would roll - keep the faith!

[meccajay]

[font:Arial Black]Sweet Vindication![/font]

http://www.nfl.com/u/photos/pl_914580.jpghttp://www.nfl.com/u/photos/pl_914617.jpg

 

===========================

 

[font:Courier New]Hey Rexy, you've just blew the superbowl, with the worst performance in recent memory.. What are you gonna do now??!![/font]

 

http://www.nfl.com/u/photos/pl_914492.jpg

I'm going... to be TRADED!!

 

================================

 

http://www.point-spreads.com/images/stories/lovie-smith.jpg

Ah yes Sandra, could you pull up the agent's phone numbers for Matt Schaub, Byron Leftwitch & Jake Plummer please?!

 

[MikeT156]

My vote is for no more games in outside stadiums. There are so many modern stadiums that are under roof. All the rain detracted from the game. In 2007, there's no need for the NFL to use crappy old stadiums.

 

Mike T.