Official MLB 2023 Thread

[Lou Gehrig Charles]

48 minutes ago, bill5 said:

That's what they said the other night during the last game (i.e. "if they win this game....").  Maybe they meant WS only, or I'm just losing it, but I could've sworn that's what they said. Oddly I couldn't find out onlilne.

They quite likely could have said it.  Other than their favorite teams (Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Red Sox and Yankees), the national sports media isn't too terribly concerned about getting the facts right for all those "other" teams.

[Synthaholic]

On 11/3/2023 at 2:08 AM, bill5 said:

? I think your math needs work. They weren't the 8th best by any measure I can see. And clearly they weren't the 8th best anyway, since so-called better teams couldn't beat them. I love that you have a headache about it though.   

[bill5]

So tied for 6th. But that's all quibbling. My real point is they beat the supposedly better teams in the playoffs. Repeatedly. So IMO they weren't the better teams after all.

 

That's what's good and smart about playoffs (except in football); you can't just have a lucky/hot game and move on. You have to beat a team over and over. If you can do that, I think it's safe to say you're the better team. 

[Geoff Grace]

Which “repeatedly” do you give the most weight to and why?

The Braves were 8-5 versus the Phillies during the regular season; but Atlanta lost three games to one in October, leaving the final 2023 record at 9-8, in favor of the Braves. Despite Atlanta having the best record in Major League Baseball, and despite Atlanta beating the Phillies nine games to eight, Philadelphia advanced instead of the Braves because the Phillies won more games in October.

Sure, you can make the case the Philadelphia was the better team during that month; but you can also make a valid argument that Atlanta was the better team overall.

Best,

Geoff

[bill5]

Fair enough. I guess you could say let's not have any playoffs and the team with the best record at the end of the season is the champ. Personally I'm glad we don't. You could also argue that if they're really the better team, they should win when everything is on the line.

[harmonizer]

Through the 1968 season, the team in each league having the most wins in the regular season advanced to the World Series with no playoffs (unless there was a regular season tie). Personally I like having the additional rounds of playoffs before the "final series". But having these poses the risk of devaluing the regular season accomplishments of those teams having the best regular season records. I liked it best when baseball had 5 teams qualify in each league, with the two wild card teams forced to potentially use their best starter in a single-game elimination game, with the winner of that one game forced to play in the next round against the team having the best regular season record. That top seed got rewarded with competing against a potentially non-optimized rotation of the single wild card game winner.

[Geoff Grace]

Wow!

Shohei Ohtani joining Dodgers on 10-year, $700M contract

Best,

Geoff

[drawback]

Glad it happened this way. Perhaps now that’s out of the way, the Blue Jays will be able to put its dollars to fill the 4 holes lost to free agency with some A listers and offer extensions to Bichette & Guererro. Spending the wad on one guy, no matter who, makes no sense for Toronto’s case. 

[jazzpiano88]

3 hours ago, Geoff Grace said:

Wow!

Shohei Ohtani joining Dodgers on 10-year, $700M contract

Best,

Geoff

 

Well deserved as the best to ever play the game!   It's actually a small price to pay to guarantee LA the pennant and likely WS going forward.  

[Doerfler]

4 hours ago, jazzpiano88 said:

 

  It's actually a small price to pay to guarantee LA the pennant and likely WS going forward.  

This is  what the Yankees used to do.  So once again, the biggest markets with the most money spend their way to the top.  This is exactly why the NFL has a salary cap

[Geoff Grace]

As a Packers fan, I'm grateful that the NFL has rules in place to help smaller market teams.

 

The high spending has worked well for the Dodgers, if the goal is to be consistently among the best; but so far, they only have one World Series title since the '80s to show for it.

 

Of course, the odds have just increased with the addition of Ohtani to the roster. I have to admit that having Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani at the top of the order is pretty amazing (and more than a bit unfair).

 

Best,

 

Geoff

 

 

[Adan]

Keep seeing in the reports that "$700M over 10 years" is really  more like $45M/y because of payment deferral, the details of which will eventually be known. That seems more reasonable, because how could Ohtani be worth twice as much as Mookie Betts.

 

From a competitiveness standpoint, the question is always, what else could the team have done with this money? Spend it on other free agents, on player development, etc . . . putting so many eggs in one basket is a high risk strategy if that player gets injured or prematurely declines. 

 

The other part we don't see is how the Dodgers are leveraging the Ohtani signing into broadcasting deals, which is sort of an immediate financial payback that makes a signing like this into more of a solid business decision.

 

 

[Doerfler]

Here is a New York perspective on the LA Dodgers

 

https://www.wsj.com/sports/baseball/shohei-ohtani-dodgers-10-year-plan-827e54a8?st=jug0i6ctzlsj67w&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[Geoff Grace]

31 minutes ago, Doerfler said:

Here is a New York perspective on the LA Dodgers

 

https://www.wsj.com/sports/baseball/shohei-ohtani-dodgers-10-year-plan-827e54a8?st=jug0i6ctzlsj67w&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Unfortunately (but understandably), it’s behind a paywall, Dave. Would you care to summarize?

 

Best,

 

Geoff

[drawback]

The key paragraphs are:

 

“The Dodgers didn’t win the Ohtani sweepstakes with a charm offensive designed to woo him as a free agent. Rather it was the result of a decade-long effort to position themselves as the right place for him to spend his prime years. 

 

The Dodgers had been tracking Ohtani since he was a teenager and made their initial approach before he signed his first professional deal for the Nippon Ham Fighters as a teenager. They tried again when Ohtani crossed the Pacific and jumped to the majors, only to lose out to the Angels. (National League teams were a less attractive proposition to him in those days, because they didn’t yet have the designated hitter, Ohtani’s preferred role on non-pitching days.)

 

But as his contract with Angels ran down and free agency approached, the Dodgers were determined not to miss out again. And this time, they were able to promise him that 10 years of work had made them baseball’s most sustainably successful team. Los Angeles has been to the postseason every season since 2013 using a formula that is the envy of just about everyone else in the sport. The Dodgers have a robust homegrown talent pipeline, and the authorization to splurge on payroll. 

 

The work to get there stems back to the 2012 acquisition of the team by the Guggenheim Group for $2 billion, which bailed the franchise out of a dire financial situation following the expensive divorce of former owner Frank McCourt. Two years later, the Dodgers made a franchise-changing hire by bringing in Andrew Friedman, the team’s president of baseball operations.”

[Geoff Grace]

Thanks, drawback! Great points.

 

Best,

 

Geoff

[Doerfler]

 

6 hours ago, Geoff Grace said:

 it’s behind a paywall, Dave. Would you care to summarize?

 

Thanks, Rod.  Hey Geoff, I'm really sorry . You can see at the end of the url it's a pemalink ."desktopwebshare_permalink"   I am told by the WSJ that this is a sharable link, I am supposed to get "x" many a month to share without the paywall.

 

I'll have to check into this.  

 

So, my summary is this. SO went to the Angels knowing eventually he would play for the Dodgers.

 

He doesn't have to relocate. This was all by design.  Also why the NL now has a DH. 

[zxcvbnm098]

Per Ken Rosenthal from The Athletic -

 

"Ohtani deal with Dodgers, per source, includes “unprecedented” deferrals - the majority of his salary. The deferrals were Ohtani’s idea to ease the Dodgers’ luxury-tax and cash flow burdens to give the team the flexibility needs to be as competitive as possible, the source said."

 

Interesting....underlines mine

[Synthaholic]

On 12/9/2023 at 4:18 PM, Geoff Grace said:

Wow!

Shohei Ohtani joining Dodgers on 10-year, $700M contract

Best,

Geoff

I'm . . . happy for you?  

 

He's a great hitter, but he's not going to pitch next year, and as Chelsea James said in WaPo, the basic math is that he's being paid $35M to hit and $35M to pitch. There are only 4 players making $35M to hit: Trout, Judge, Correa, and surprisingly, Anthony Rendon, and 5 making $35M to pitch: Verlander, Cole, Scherzer, deGrom, and Strasberg, who is now retired. But this year the Dodgers are paying a DH $70M to hit. Which brings me to agree with her conclusion: 

 

Quote

In practice, the Dodgers are not paying Ohtani to pitch next season. The 29-year-old underwent his second elbow surgery in five years this fall, and the soonest he is expected to pitch again is 2025. Because of that injury and those that preceded it, the Dodgers cannot be sure how much pitching they will get from Ohtani during the deal. But Ohtani is the biggest star in the world and is now playing for one of the sport’s most prominent franchises. The Dodgers are paying him to hit and to pitch as much as he can. But more than anything, they are paying him to be an icon.

 

They are deferring the majority of his money each year, to avoid luxury taxes and be able to sign other players, so it may end up another Bobby Bonilla situation, where Ohtani is still getting multi-million-dollar checks when he's in his 60s.

[Synthaholic]

On 12/9/2023 at 7:47 PM, jazzpiano88 said:

 

Well deserved as the best to ever play the game!  

I don't think we're there yet. He's very good, but I have a hard time designating him the GOAT - so far.

 

Quote

It's actually a small price to pay to guarantee LA the pennant and likely WS going forward.  

I honestly do not think he results in them winning more WS than if he wasn't there. I think the Dodgers could win one or two WS in the next 10 years, with or without Ohtani. And when you look at their projected lineup, I'm only impressed with 1-3: Betts, Ohtani, Freeman. After that it's Will Smith, very good but no superstar at the plate. Then Max Muncy, who like Kyle Schwarber is an all-or-nothing swinger. After that it's not great. Outman has a lot of upside, but Heyward and Taylor are now replacement-level. When I've seen Gavin Lux I haven't been that impressed.

 

[Geoff Grace]

3 hours ago, Doerfler said:

 

Thanks, Rod.  Hey Geoff, I'm really sorry . You can see at the end of the url it's a pemalink ."desktopwebshare_permalink"   I am told by the WSJ that this is a sharable link, I am supposed to get "x" many a month to share without the paywall.

 

I'll have to check into this.  

 

So, my summary is this. SO went to the Angels knowing eventually he would play for the Dodgers.

 

He doesn't have to relocate. This was all by design.  Also why the NL now has a DH. 

 

Thanks, Dave. No worries. I hope you're able to fix your monthly perks with WSJ.

 

It does look a lot like longterm planning on the Dodgers' part, not to mention the National League. The lack of a designated hitter put them at a competitive disadvantage, especially in this circumstance.

 

1 hour ago, Synthaholic said:

I'm . . . happy for you?  

 

He's a great hitter, but he's not going to pitch next year, and as Chelsea James said in WaPo, the basic math is that he's being paid $35M to hit and $35M to pitch. There are only 4 players making $35M to hit: Trout, Judge, Correa, and surprisingly, Anthony Rendon, and 5 making $35M to pitch: Verlander, Cole, Scherzer, deGrom, and Strasberg, who is now retired. But this year the Dodgers are paying a DH $70M to hit. Which brings me to agree with her conclusion: 

Quote

In practice, the Dodgers are not paying Ohtani to pitch next season. The 29-year-old underwent his second elbow surgery in five years this fall, and the soonest he is expected to pitch again is 2025. Because of that injury and those that preceded it, the Dodgers cannot be sure how much pitching they will get from Ohtani during the deal. But Ohtani is the biggest star in the world and is now playing for one of the sport’s most prominent franchises. The Dodgers are paying him to hit and to pitch as much as he can. But more than anything, they are paying him to be an icon.

1 hour ago, Synthaholic said:

 

They are deferring the majority of his money each year, to avoid luxury taxes and be able to sign other players, so it may end up another Bobby Bonilla situation, where Ohtani is still getting multi-million-dollar checks when he's in his 60s.

 

I agree with your choice to bold, "they are paying him to be an icon," Synthaholic. The Dodgers are continuing to cement their brand as a destination, and LA has long been a setting for iconic figures (while Anaheim has mostly been iconic for Disneyland, NAMM Show notwithstanding).

 

It's technically true that the Dodgers will be paying Shohei Ohtani $35M to hit and $35M to pitch and taking a bath on the pitching (at least for next year and possibly beyond). However, as a 10-year deal, LA probably expects to weather some setbacks; and of course as you alluded to, there will be off-the-field advantages to having him on the team.

 

I agree with your assessment (as their lineup currently stands) that the Dodgers could win one or two World Series in the next 10 years, with or without Ohtani. As a Dodgers fan, I hope that will be the outcome. At the same time, as a baseball fan and a sports fan, I hope that no team—including the Dodgers—will win more than two or three championships in any given decade. It devalues the competitiveness of any league and undermines the unpredictability that makes sports so much fun to watch.

 

Best,

 

Geoff

[Geoff Grace]

Wow again!

Dodgers announce Ohtani signing; $680M of deal deferred, sources say

 

The deferred money is expected to be paid to Ohtani between 2034 and 2043. He certainly wants to win!

Best,

Geoff

[Bobadohshe]

It's lame and weird in my opinion. What is happening to baseball?

[Geoff Grace]

I wish I knew, Bobby. We’re entering uncharted water.

 

Shohei Ohtani isn't the first player to accept deferred money, but no one has done anything nearly this extreme before.

 

Even though it's within the rules, it seems patently unfair.

 

Best,

 

Geoff

[Synthaholic]

On 12/12/2023 at 1:27 AM, Geoff Grace said:

Wow again!

Dodgers announce Ohtani signing; $680M of deal deferred, sources say

 

The deferred money is expected to be paid to Ohtani between 2034 and 2043. He certainly wants to win!

Best,

Geoff

He's not hurting. He is currently making around $50M per year in endorsements and other off-the-field ventures.

[zxcvbnm098]

Here's even more detail on how the Dodgers will be paying SO...interesting details:

 

https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/newsletter/2023-12-13/shohei-ohtani-dodgers-dugout

[jazzpiano88]

Buster Posey, SF co-owner, weighs in that the sorry state of the city of San Francisco is hurting their free agency.
He also discloses that it was a factor in Ohtani’s decision to go with the Dodgers.
 

 https://www.sfgate.com/giants/article/giants-posey-sf-doom-loop-free-agency-18552169.php

[Geoff Grace]

I haven't been to San Francisco since 2016 or 2017, but I always thought it was a great city. I hope any current negatives are exaggerated and quickly reversed.

 

Best,

 

Geoff

[Geoff Grace]

Despite the Shohei Ohtani signing, the Dodgers still needed to add pitchers:

Sources: Tyler Glasnow finalizing $135M deal with Dodgers

Glasnow is from Southern California (Santa Clarita), so he should feel right at home. If he can stay healthy, he should be a great addition to the team.

Best,

Geoff

[Adan]

19 hours ago, jazzpiano88 said:

Buster Posey, SF co-owner, weighs in that the sorry state of the city of San Francisco is hurting their free agency.
He also discloses that it was a factor in Ohtani’s decision to go with the Dodgers.
 

 https://www.sfgate.com/giants/article/giants-posey-sf-doom-loop-free-agency-18552169.php

To be precise, in that article Posey says it's the perception of SF that is the problem, and he goes on to say that when it comes to attracting free agents, "perception is reality."

 

I lived in SF from 2002 to 2013, then in Marin County (just north of SF) until 2021.  The downtown part of the City, which happens to be where the ballpark is, has really gone downhill.  I saw with my own eyes the tent cities and the open drug use, which had always been there to some extent, increase severalfold.  And yet, that's only a portion of the city.  Anyone on an MLB player's salary can easily live in the suburbs, which are not affected by this at all.  So it's kind of a strange theory because it's not so hard to avoid all that stuff, even if you have to commute to the ballpark for work.

 

Part of the reason I continue to root for the Giants is because they've shown it's possible to win without overpaying for big name free agents.  2021 was a good example. The part that's confusing is why their farm system consistently sucks.