The Elephant in the Room - The one we’re all thinking about or ignoring.

[o0Ampy0o]

5 hours ago, David Emm said:

Since this has been a brute-force WWII approach as much as not, I'm fascinated, awaiting that moment when Putin's mess becomes wholly unsupportable. I'm talking financial aspects that must eventually start cutting the legs out from under the war. There's also bound to be a point where the public will become more of a force against Putin as they tire of seeing their teenagers killed off. Its historically surreal to watch in real-time.

 

The other issue is that when a new boss pops up within any authoritarian regime, they're never better. Instead, they often double down on bastardy, but what if the national economy drops to a level that starts neutering such actions? Some of that will depend on proxy-war aspects, such as China providing Moscow with oil. There is also a limit to how far that can go if the current boss proves too incompetent. See "surreal" above. 

 

Between this, the writer's strike & my iffy knees, its no wonder I'm drawn to goofy-assed, high-quality distractions such as "Shazam! The Fury of the Gods." 🙄 

 

Would you explain theoretically why China would provide Moscow with oil in a proxy-war context?

 

Pre Ukraine invasion sanctions, Russia was the second largest global exporter of crude oil in the world. "European nations are were the largest collective buyer of that oil, while China is (still is post-sanctions) the petro-state’s largest single purchaser."

 

"Russia is a major producer, consumer and exporter of not just oil but also coal and natural gas, and the various refined products made from them."

 

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/597882-here-are-the-countries-that-import-the-most-russian-oil/

 

"Almost half of all the Russian government's annual revenues come from oil and gas, and its sales to EU countries has plummeted over the past year as sanctions bite. A significant amount of this shortfall has been made up with increased sales to Asia. Who is buying Russian oil and gas? Russia exported twice as much liquid petroleum gas (LPG) to China in 2022 than it did the year before. It also delivered 50% more natural gas via the Power of Siberia pipeline, and 10% more crude oil."

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/60571253

 

 

[ProfD]

On 6/24/2023 at 10:06 PM, bill5 said:

In general, I am amazed that Russia didn't overwhelm Ukraine quickly.

IMO, the objective is not to beat Ukraine down.  It is to keep Ukraine under the sphere of influence. 

 

Preventing Ukraine from joining NATO by proxy means keeping the US out of Russia's backyard.  

 

Otherwise, Russia is playing with Ukraine like a cat and a ball of yarn. 

 

Unfortunately, real lives are being lost on both sides over some geopolitical sh8t. 😎

[Stokely]

I don't get that impression at all.

I get more of an impression that Russia has a great armed forces on paper, and in reality has poor leadership, crap gear (except for certain artillery) and low morale.  Maybe I'm wrong in that impression but I think the last thing they wanted to do is have this war extended.  Putin and Russia want a new empire and that includes the former Soviet state Ukraine...manifest destiny and all that.  Much like China wants Taiwan and will never admit it's got its own separate destiny.

Agreed on the loss of life, all for who controls lines on a map.  Just shows me that human societies are the same violent domineering tribal groups they've always been, when you get right down to it.   People dying by thousands just so old rich men can brag.

And to be fair I was just as infuriated over the 2nd Iraq invasion, perhaps more so because that was done in my name as an American.  One decade I'll get over it...well, maybe not.  It would be nice for the US to have some high ground credibility in telling someone to stop invading another land over supposed "security reasons".