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The Elephant in the Room - The one we’re all thinking about or ignoring.


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Ok, it’s terrifying to think about… but I’m going to go there.  
 

I am pretty sure the opening acts of  WWIII started in March of 2014 and quickly followed by September of 2015 when the US and our NATO allies did not respond with enough conviction to Putin’s actions in Ukraine and Syria.  Now suddenly our leaders have awakened… but we, I fear are not ready for what comes next.

 

In the short term, do we have the strength and unity to deal with expensive fuel and wheat products as we try to cut off Russia’s money to wage war?  Can we handle watching our portfolios tank?  How fast can we pivot to alternative fuel sources?  Can we see the plan through as long as necessary? 
 

Looking out 3-6-12 months, 2 years  out?  Surely Putin knows use of nuclear weapons is the end of his/Russia’s ambitions as well as billions of people’s lives.  China’s leadership is very quiet at this time.  
 

Can the human monkeys that run the big show avoid screwing the pooch here? 

Yamaha CP88, Casio PX-560

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As a European who grew up in the Cold War, this sudden restructuring of the balance of power, and the end to the relative freedom from fear of the last three decades really hits home. 
 

i don’t think we’re in actual danger of a nuclear war unless Putin sets his mind on directly attacking a NATO member, and at the moment, I think it’s about reasserting former status, rather than all-out mutually assured destruction (remember that phrase?)… at least, I hope it is. 

"The Angels of Libra are in the European vanguard of the [retro soul] movement" (Bill Buckley, Soul and Jazz and Funk)

The Drawbars | off jazz organ trio

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Although I agree this is currently the paramount topic in the world, I'm concerned about continuing this thread, as the probability would be quite high that it would deteriorate in short order to politics and finger-pointing due to the emotions surrounding it.

 

I'm also not sure that everyone is up to speed on the historical precedent behind the current events. Basically, this is primarily about oil and water. Secondarily, it's about a belief that geography's effect on conventional warfare remains relevant.

 

Furthermore, I don't think any of the "monkeys" are acting in a way that makes sense.  As the brilliant military strategist Sun Tzu said, "Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across."  That is the answer. There is a perfectly sensible way to extricate all concerned from this situation, but I guarantee no one from the White House or the Kremlin is going to call and ask me to handle the negotiations :)

 

So, I'll negotiate a deal about this thread. I'll let it survive IF it meets my arbitrary sense of what I feel is constructive, solution-oriented, and most importantly, applicable to our lives in the sense that we can learn our own lessons from what's going on. 

 

Fair warning: I will be merciless in removing posts that do not meet the narrowly defined goals I've set for this thread. Any removal is not personal, and all contributions are appreciated, removed or not. But I've been doing this forum thing for over a quarter-century, and I know that even apparently harmless posts done in good faith can lead to unintended consequences. Furthermore, any post with the words "Biden" or "Trump" (or euphemisms for same) will be removed. 

 

Analogika's post is a good example of a non-toxic post. His saying that it's about reasserting former status is, I think, a big part of the picture. But it's also about maintaining that former status once achieved, which gets back to what I said about oil, water, and geography.

 

If this thread provides an opportunity to learn, then it's worth keeping. If not, it's worth locking.

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I know from personal experience, and I believe many others do as well, that WWI and II were very prideful conflicts - in addition to socio-economic issues, resources, borders, historic bad blood, etc.  The adults who waged these monstrosities are gone now.  Very few of their children who survived the displacement, homelessness, imprisonment, hunger, etc. are left either.  Time has marched on.  Are we not smart enough to work our way out of this?  Are the wealthiest and most powerful among us not influential enough to see bad business for all isn’t good business for the few either?  
 

So we go about our day with the threat of insanity knocking at the door. Technology advances, human behavior does not, it seems.  I hope we can do better. 

Yamaha CP88, Casio PX-560

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1 minute ago, ElmerJFudd said:

Technology advances, human behavior does not, it seems.

 

That kinda sum things up.

 

This may not seem relevant, but I know musicians who thought "If only I was a star, everything would be all right." And business people who thought "If only I could be the head of a huge company, everything would be all right." But everything didn't turn out to be all right, because although their circumstances changed, they didn't. 

 

So now we have a situation with changing circumstances, but running under the same assumptions that haven't worked in the past. It's the outmoded assumptions that are fueling the problem.

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I am always disappointed by these events but not surprised. I don't possess the power to make the kind of changes that would be needed. 

 

The Ukraine has very fertile soil, a significant percentage of the world's food is grown on Ukrainian soil. 

They have tremendous mineral wealth, well beyond simply oil, many of the rare earth metals are obtainable there. 

 

Historically speaking, the Ukraine operating as an autonomous country hasn't lasted very long. 

I don't know what the outcome will be but I doubt nuclear weapons will be deployed. Putin is not suicidal and does not want his country or the world to become a smoldering crater. 

 

Most of my stocks are headed in the right direction currently, they did take a ding but appear to have recovered. NVDA stock went up $15.00 per share today, Costco moved up over $4 and Apple over $5.

I know better than to predict what will happen on "the Market" (the Casino?) but I do see my WPM holdings are still not doing great so people have not moved toward precious metals yet. Hard to say if they will. Fortunately for me, it's a fairly small holding. 

It took a chunk of my life to get here and I am still not sure where "here" is.
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4 hours ago, ElmerJFudd said:

Can the human monkeys that run the big show avoid screwing the pooch here? 

 

NO! They're going to screw the poor little feller so hard, the howling will be picked up by the Mars rovers.

 

Note that Putin is a former KGB Cold War snake. Traditional political maneuvering as we know it doesn't fully apply in his case. Assuming that his actions don't lead to anything nuclear (brrrrr...😬), it will be sadly interesting see how it plays out. Every new Bad Thing seems to encompass more of us at every step. If anything finally craters Putin, it will be that he's bad for business.     

 

Possessing no super-powers or control over the supernatural, I choose to keep at my compositions and wait semi-patiently for "Doctor Strange and The Multiverse of Madness." Being disgusted by politics, financial evils and willful ignorance is simply an ongoing state of being. I just didn't expect a Marvel movie's title to nail it. HA!

 "I want to be an intellectual, but I don't have the brainpower.
  The absent-mindedness, I've got that licked."
        ~ John Cleese

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There's a lot of natural resource wealth under the waters to which Crimea has legal rights, according to international law. Ukraine is also the most expedient place to have pipelines to Europe. 

 

The quickest resolution would be Russia gets to keep Crimea and Donetsk (that train has already left the station anyway) in return for paying a reasonable royalty to Ukraine for Crimea's natural resources, along with paying a fee for oil and gas that goes through Ukraine. Russia also guarantees Ukraine access to Odessa so it has a seaport, and recognizes it as having a political status like Finland, to which the west agrees. Ukraine says  Russians in Ukraine will be treated with respect (another face-saving measure for Putin that doesn't really mess with Ukraine), and won't ask to be a part of NATO, but has the option to apply for the EU someday. It takes forever for that to go through anyway. Turkey's been trying since 1987, right?

 

Problem solved: Putin gets to save face by saying he got part of Russia back, even though they're fairly small pieces of a big country. Ukraine and Russia both get money from resources, which they both need.  Russia gets to open its gas and oil spigot wide over Ukraine, knowing that the situation has stabilized, and can then start rebuilding its economy. Zelenskyy can say he successfully repelled a Russian invasion and secured Ukraine's independence. NATO doesn't really need Ukraine so they won't care if it doesn't join, and the EU has so much red tape Putin will be long gone by the time any papers are to be signed anyway.

 

Europeans keep getting gas and oil, and Americans can go back to watching football on big-screen TVs, complaining about things, and having cheap gas. China gets to breathe a sigh of relief because they dodged a bullet, and can devote their full attention to figuring out how they're going to get out of the mondo real estate bubble that's about to burst. Moscow can go back to having an awesome club scene, and make money from tourism with the under-30 crowd.

 

So nobody gets 100% of what they want, but everyone gets 80% of what they want, and they decide that's good enough compared to the alternative. You're welcome :) 

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Very sad that it has come to this.  I don’t believe Putin believes he can save face.  And he has bombed the shit out of Ukrainian cities displacing millions of people, injuring countless others and committing to death as yet unconfirmed/undisclosed people on both sides.  The Ukrainians will never forget.  Now there will forever be an insurgency in Ukraine.  Likely anti-Russian terrorist acts.  War as an answer loses again.  The human  monkeys in charge can’t learn from Russian or US fairly recent history. 

Yamaha CP88, Casio PX-560

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The Russian people will end up paying an unexpected price. If Ukraine counters with acts of terrorism on Russian soil then Putin will have to increase restrictions and the monitoring of all movements within an already militaristic Russia. This will make things harder on his own people and spur more resentment. 

This post edited for speling.

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One people starting a war with another people to take their resources and/or conquer/eliminate their people is the history of mankind.

Almost a 3rd of European born people have chromosomes that can be traced back to the Mongol invasion. The Zulu were warriors, the Cambodians committed genocide, the Australians committed a total genocide against Tasmanian and the occupiers of what is now the United States and Canada hardly have a leg to stand on with regards to their track record. 

 

I'm not saying that this justifies anything or that nobody can change. I am saying that history indicates what actually has (and probably will) happen and that every time somebody points a finger at somebody else there are three fingers on the same hand pointing right back at them. 

 

It's not quite a cut and dried situation, in other words. There are layers of complexity, some of them are difficult to parse. 

It took a chunk of my life to get here and I am still not sure where "here" is.
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1 hour ago, KuruPrionz said:

I'm not saying that this justifies anything or that nobody can change. I am saying that history indicates what actually has (and probably will) happen and that every time somebody points a finger at somebody else there are three fingers on the same hand pointing right back at them. 

 

True, but I was just hoping that as a species, we had evolved a little further. The problem isn't that there isn't enough to go around, the problem is that people don't realize there's enough to go around. All we have to do as a species is to make some minor modifications to our behavior, and then war for the sake of eliminating others who compete for resources would be irrelevant.

 

Although I don't think art can solve our problems, or even a fraction of them, it does have the effect of stretching one's brain to more abstract spaces. I think that a certain level of abstract thinking will be necessary to change the current course we're on.

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2 hours ago, Anderton said:

 

True, but I was just hoping that as a species, we had evolved a little further. The problem isn't that there isn't enough to go around, the problem is that people don't realize there's enough to go around. All we have to do as a species is to make some minor modifications to our behavior, and then war for the sake of eliminating others who compete for resources would be irrelevant.

 

Although I don't think art can solve our problems, or even a fraction of them, it does have the effect of stretching one's brain to more abstract spaces. I think that a certain level of abstract thinking will be necessary to change the current course we're on.

I would like to believe that we'd evolved but I don't see any conclusive evidence unfortunately. 

Whether or not there is enough to go around (and or the resources required to move needed items to places in need) does not alleviate tendencies towards greed and hostility nor does it change the events of the day - things like earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, floods, droughts, etc. 

 

As an example I've kept an eye on, they are building homes like there is no tomorrow in Phoenix and they sell them quickly. 

The water table continues to subside. This is unsustainable but the combination of greed on the part of the builders and ignorance on the part of the buyers is setting a large population up for disaster. It may or may not come in our lifetime but it will come. A vast expanse of the Southwestern area of our country will be afflicted. Can we get water to all of them soon enough?

 

Hence, my move to the Washington coast in 2005. No regrets, I barely got in but I did. It doesn't mean the water crisis won't affect us up here, I have no idea how we've managed to escape uncontrolled wildfires in August but so far so good. It won't be pretty, none of it will be pretty. Is it off topic? Not if we are realistically discussing the human condition. 

 

Putin wants the wealth of a country that is on his border. His motivations are complex and historically speaking not unusual behavior at all. I don't condone it but I'm certain he doesn't care if I do or not. 

It took a chunk of my life to get here and I am still not sure where "here" is.
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It is looking like the cost of this endeavor is immediately very high.  The sanctions seem to already be in effect and disrupting Putin’s economy, foreign businesses closing operations (Putin talking about confiscating their assets and running them himself).  Foreign aid in arms and experienced manpower putting up painful resistance.  But as mentioned before, no “golden bridge” for Putin to save face.  But maybe the lesson is hard enough that he will think twice about grabbing the other former USSR nations. 

 

Watching millions of people on the run.  What are the legit ways to help?

https://www.care.org

https://donate.doctorswithoutborders.org/

https://www.icrc.org/en/donate/ukraine

 

Yamaha CP88, Casio PX-560

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There are legitimate ways to help. I’m watching on Facebook as a friend of mine in Germany goes to the train station every day since this thing started to help bewildered Ukrainians get to somewhere safe. He has hosted people in his house overnight and comforted dozens of children. There are no men between 18 and 60 on these trains. He is doing this without any organization or entity telling him to…there is some mild volunteer organizing going on at the station itself.

 

As usual, I feel pretty useless, but I’ve been checking in with my Ukrainian coworkers and friends, but with technology as advanced as it is now, there’s little I can do to help them…they can all do it themselves. I do argue with people here in the Midwest about the fallacy that this war is what is spiking oil prices. I guess the best I can do is dispel misinformation.

"For instance" is not proof.

 

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On 3/11/2022 at 12:45 PM, techristian said:

To this one, I say I'm not sure. There are always 2 sides to a story.

Indeed, and one side isn't always 100% right, and one side 100% wrong. But it's digging deeper (and sorting out information from propaganda, which isn't always easy) that reveals which side has the preponderance of evidence to support their position, and who's on the right side of history.

 

Interestingly, current negotiations are pretty much following what I proposed earlier, except that they're not working the idea of shared resources and royalties into the equation - they're sticking with geopolitical aspects only. I still think that if they followed the money, they'd realize there's an easy solution that would give all sides most of what they want.

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"Update on March 13, 2022: The following article was submitted by the author to the Chinese-language edition of the US-China Perception Monitor. The article was not commissioned by the US-China Perception Monitor, nor is the author affiliated with the Carter Center or the US-China Perception Monitor.

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor. "

 

The article was reportedly censored in China, but not before Jiaqi Lu translated it to English

 

https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/?utm_source=digg&utm_medium=email

 

 

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1 hour ago, GovernorSilver said:

 

"Update on March 13, 2022: The following article was submitted by the author to the Chinese-language edition of the US-China Perception Monitor. The article was not commissioned by the US-China Perception Monitor, nor is the author affiliated with the Carter Center or the US-China Perception Monitor.

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor. "

 

The article was reportedly censored in China, but not before Jiaqi Lu translated it to English

 

https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/?utm_source=digg&utm_medium=email

 

 

Thank you for sharing.  If the article is indicative of careful thought and strategic planning happening within China's leadership, it is hopeful that Xi Jinping comes to the same conclusions.  The war is a miscalculation, a bold and blatant mistake.  The sooner a negotiated agreement with concessions on both sides is achieved the better for all.  

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Yamaha CP88, Casio PX-560

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Lots of interesting responses here.  When this all broke out, my best guess was that Russia would accomplish the takeover in very short order.  That still could happen, but it clearly looks like a tougher situation than Russia anticipated.  From Russia's point of view, this war is like a brawl at a family reunion.  You want to knock this one guy out - teach him a lesson you think he needs to learn - but you can't hurt him too bad or the family will turn on you.   So you punch, but hold back a bit - and now you're in something a lot more like a real fight, wondering if you should have sat this one out....but you can't back down.  Dicey.  

 

Clearly this invasion has galvanized NATO, and will chase some tweener nations into NATO's arms.  So a new, harder, more polarized Asia/Europe standoff will result.   There might be new walls reminiscent of the Berlin Wall.  Yikes - all that all over again.  

 

The U.S. economy will be both hurt and helped I think. We still are the world's largest producer of oil and gas, so high gas prices will bring a windfall to that sector of our economy.   A rush to produce more might happen - and the usual boomtown cycle will crank up again where drilling takes off.   Buy Schlumberger!   It's a bad time for gas prices to go up - no question there - but as my old friend in the petroleum industry says, there's a silver lining to every mushroom cloud.  

 

nat

 

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The article quoted above closes on a highly pragmatic note:

 

A just cause attracts much support; an unjust one finds little. If Russia instigates a world war or even a nuclear war, it will surely risk the world’s turmoil. To demonstrate China’s role as a responsible major power, China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should take concrete actions to prevent Putin’s possible adventures. China is the only country in the world with this capability, and it must give full play to this unique advantage. Putin’s departure from China’s support will most likely end the war, or at least not dare to escalate the war. As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West.

 

As I've often said, internationally speaking, all China really wants is to be a respected player on the world stage. Domestically speaking, it just wants to maintain order to avoid volatility. I think the conclusion is correct - China can leverage its response to Ukraine to its advantage.

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3 hours ago, GovernorSilver said:

 

"Update on March 13, 2022: The following article was submitted by the author to the Chinese-language edition of the US-China Perception Monitor. The article was not commissioned by the US-China Perception Monitor, nor is the author affiliated with the Carter Center or the US-China Perception Monitor.

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor. "

 

The article was reportedly censored in China, but not before Jiaqi Lu translated it to English

 

https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/?utm_source=digg&utm_medium=email

 

 

following up on above post, here is an opinion from the New York Times by 

 Wang Huiyao

Dr. Wang is the founder and president of the Center for China and Globalization, a nongovernmental think tank based in Beijing. He advises the Chinese government in that capacity.

 

it's a gift link from me to you, should not be a Pay Wall

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/13/opinion/china-russia-ukraine.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuomT1JKd6J17Vw1cRCfTTMQmqxCdw_PIxftm3iWka3DODm8ZiOMNAo6B_EGKbqpiYdJ2xSmAX95IdaIsXvVzyOIZP1BoT0PghKq4r6k_And_r5OvDCRx1ojRXLs8_Hi7PmDkeO4kzvjl7xuLdWXhD63A2SEnIxJjpZdndg392ycNlazVA6UijIkFqPQkAZh-RzsEZzDb_KW7TkUjZ6jVK03U-QI0WOpGWDvMndL66LkIcQxaDV6uX2ooqC9nq4saYIVLSf65ex0we8P-gqETD3hrKeqpBJ4zRovTk9Z6oL8g4jsXTe61077tPKWsGUA&smid=url-share

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Very interesting and somewhat hopeful. I agree that China can come out of this smelling like a rose if they make the right moves. Besides, as mentioned in my first post in this thread, it was a Chinese military strategist who said "Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across." Here's hoping they do.

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I found this interesting, I am not saying it is indisputable but I found it informative.  It is excerpts from an interview with Retired US General David Petraeus, who also headed the CIA. He is answering questions regarding the situation in Ukraine. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/15/opinions/russia-ukraine-petraeus-bergen/index.html

It took a chunk of my life to get here and I am still not sure where "here" is.
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55 minutes ago, KuruPrionz said:

I found this interesting, I am not saying it is indisputable but I found it informative.

So did I. Also, I find people more credible when sometimes, the answer to a question is "I don't know."

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Today I was able to catch Zalensky’s address to Congress.  He asked for US support and help, comparing Ukraine’s situation to Pearl Harbor or 9-11.  Displayed news footage of the destruction in Ukraine with a focus on injury and loss of life inflicted on communities, children and the elderly indiscriminately.  The desire is for a no fly zone over Ukraine.  I do not believe NATO can do this without escalation of the conflict to a world at war.  And we can’t assume Putin’s response would not be nuclear if backed into a corner where he is going to lose everything anyway.   He, Putin, is claiming sanctions aren’t working and everything is going to his predetermined plan.  This is hard to believe.  Let’s all hope for terms and a treaty as soon as possible.  

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Yamaha CP88, Casio PX-560

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