The Elephant in the Room - The one we’re all thinking about or ignoring.

[Joe Muscara]

9 hours ago, ElmerJFudd said:

The media wants us to believe Putin is seriously ill and not in a good state of mind.  That there is a coup in motion and that  Ukraine’s military is optimistic about reclaiming all lost regions all the way back to Crimea.  
 

https://fortune.com/2022/05/14/does-putin-have-cancer-coup-underway-blood-cancer-ukraine-war/amp/
 

This same or similar story is circulating in many news outlets.  

I'll believe it when I see it. For four years, there was a certain world leader who I kept hearing would be removed from office one way or another, was senile, was ill, etc. While things happened, this person was never removed. Pu-tiny is pretty powerful where he is, and that means it will be hard to remove him and even if he leaves or dies because of an illness, someone will take his place. That someone could be worse for all we know.

 

A few weeks ago, there was speculation that Pu-tiny had Parkinson's or something like that. Nothing came of that, either.

 

Sadly, Russia has had a long line of terrible leaders and government. I hate to say they are doomed to continue this trend, but it's hard to imagine them suddenly becoming a cool, western democracy like we'd like to see them become. I'm hopeful, but not optimistic.

[ElmerJFudd]

Ok - mistakes were made, there are hypocrisies on every side. We’ve confirmed if anyone pulls out a nuke that’s the end of it.  
 

Have Putin and the hawks who have his ear been left an off ramp?   Ukraine will have to give up something for diplomacy to work.  Russia can’t get what they wanted either.  

[Anderton]

On 10/8/2022 at 7:49 AM, ElmerJFudd said:

Ok - mistakes were made, there are hypocrisies on every side. We’ve confirmed if anyone pulls out a nuke that’s the end of it.  
 

Have Putin and the hawks who have his ear been left an off ramp?   Ukraine will have to give up something for diplomacy to work.  Russia can’t get what they wanted either.  

 

Some people think that if Putin is removed or gets too ill to govern, the problem will be solved. My concern is the opposite - that any replacement would be worse. Dictatorial leaders surround themselves with like-minded, obsequious loyalists. They'll want to show they're even more macho than their boss.

 

The only off-ramp I see is if the war drags on for years, for example like it does for anyone who tries to go to war in Afghanistan. Eventually the Russians just got tired of fighting the Afghans, declared victory, and left. Another possibility is that Russian society will unravel completely, and then that becomes a bigger priority for those who want to hold on to power than "putting the band back together" for USSR 2.0.

 

This war has fostered an unstable situation for over 7 months. This is on top of another unstable situation caused by covid. Some medical people who know their stuff say it's coming back for an encore this winter, and they aren't sure whether it will be able to evade vaccines and immunity. So, that's another unstable situation. The third unstable situation is the global economy. All of these instabilities are piling up, and affect the entire world.

 

Interestingly, these topics are not showing up in music, like they would have in the 60s with protest songs. I think artists realize that under the current conditions, they can't make even the slightest difference, so why bother? I think people just want escapism. It's easy to understand why.

[KuruPrionz]

3 hours ago, Anderton said:

 

Some people think that if Putin is removed or gets too ill to govern, the problem will be solved. My concern is the opposite - that any replacement would be worse. Dictatorial leaders surround themselves with like-minded, obsequious loyalists. They'll want to show they're even more macho than their boss.

 

The only off-ramp I see is if the war drags on for years, for example like it does for anyone who tries to go to war in Afghanistan. Eventually the Russians just got tired of fighting the Afghans, declared victory, and left. Another possibility is that Russian society will unravel completely, and then that becomes a bigger priority for those who want to hold on to power than "putting the band back together" for USSR 2.0.

 

This war has fostered an unstable situation for over 7 months. This is on top of another unstable situation caused by covid. Some medical people who know their stuff say it's coming back for an encore this winter, and they aren't sure whether it will be able to evade vaccines and immunity. So, that's another unstable situation. The third unstable situation is the global economy. All of these instabilities are piling up, and affect the entire world.

 

Interestingly, these topics are not showing up in music, like they would have in the 60s with protest songs. I think artists realize that under the current conditions, they can't make even the slightest difference, so why bother? I think people just want escapism. It's easy to understand why.

Not disagreeing with you but reading articles on Yahoo news this am, there is a sense that parts of what was once the Soviet Union and now is "Russia" may disconnect since they are an indigenous people who have their own language, culture, etc. and ran their own countries prior to being "absorbed" by the USSR. 

Some of these countries may very well join NATO, as Sweden and Finland are doing. 

 

China is treating Russia like a red-headed step-child already and they have the military power to hold their ground easily against what the World has now seen as a lesser and poorly run military. 

 

Sorry if this is too political, just delete it if so. 

[David Emm]

I'm waiting to hear that Shorty mysteriously fell from a high window. His blunt, clumsy BS is an increasing threat to the oligarchs, who push many of the world's levers, regardless of country. Russia's brand is losing market share steadily. It'll come too late, but an implosion seems imminent. Also, their statuary sucks. That's what you get when you have only one cultural revolution and it never featured fine dining. No wonder their YT bad driver videos come across like Mad Max.

 

Here's a fun fact. When I have a good day, I'll watch Dog Fails for an added laugh. When I'm pissed, I watch Russian Car Crashes.

 

When I'm feelin' blue

I stick a pin in the picture of you beside my bed

and I feel better

  ~ "I Feel Better," John Entwistle

 

[Anderton]

1 hour ago, KuruPrionz said:

Sorry if this is too political, just delete it if so. 

 

No, it's just reporting, not promoting. Besides, anything that offers a shred of hope is welcome

[RABid]

2 hours ago, KuruPrionz said:

China is treating Russia like a red-headed step-child already and they have the military power to hold their ground easily against what the World has now seen as a lesser and poorly run military. 

China is actually patting Russia on the back saying "It will be okay. We are here for you. Just keep sending us the oil and natural gas we need and we will keep paying for it so you can fund your war." Sadly China has become dependent on Russia's natural resources. They are trying to ween themselves off of the need for Russian oil and natural gas, but a solution is years away. Energy resources are turning the Black Sea into the next hotspot. There is a battle between Russia and Turkey over pipelines and shipping lanes. Turkey is even working on a new canal which Russia strongly opposes.

[ElmerJFudd]

I wonder at this time how quickly we can pivot to alternative, sustainable  and diverse energy sources, improve battery performance and scale up production of EVs to a point they are affordable.  I know pivoting from combustion engines isn’t  broadly popular because the transition won’t be smooth, fast, convenient or immediately affordable.  But buying fossil fuels and propping up some of these regimes like Russia and Saudi Arabia… it’s just downright painful.  I guess then we’ll fight over the materials we need for batteries, because that’s what the humans do.  
 

So much speculation on how this Putin/Ukraine fiasco plays out.  A solution that brings peace and stability to the region seems like a pipe dream now that blood has been shed and the seeds of hatred planted.  As mentioned above - there are hard feelings against Moscow in many of their occupied territories.  The whole thing could unravel fairly quickly.  

[KuruPrionz]

1 hour ago, RABid said:

China is actually patting Russia on the back saying "It will be okay. We are here for you. Just keep sending us the oil and natural gas we need and we will keep paying for it so you can fund your war." Sadly China has become dependent on Russia's natural resources. They are trying to ween themselves off of the need for Russian oil and natural gas, but a solution is years away. Energy resources are turning the Black Sea into the next hotspot. There is a battle between Russia and Turkey over pipelines and shipping lanes. Turkey is even working on a new canal which Russia strongly opposes.

"They smile in your face... Uhh, backstabber."

 

China is paying much less for Russia's oil than they are used to getting for it in Europe. So is India. It is also more costly to transport the oil as well since Europe had abundant pipelines in place ad China and India do not. Russia is spending money faster than they are making it selling oil. It didn't used to be like that. They are also sacrificing the lives of their soldiers in a futile attempt to "own" more territory. Of course, Ukraine has long been famous for being the "bread basket of Europe", that's why Hitler wanted it. More recently, a treasure trove of rare earth metals have been found there. It is possibly the most valuable land in Europe at this point in time. 

 

China is not having it's soldiers slaughtered by Ukrainians, why not pay Russia to keep expending their military and reducing their military power while getting a deal on oil?

It's a win/win for China strategically. They smile at the Russians, encourage them to move forward and subtly eradicate a significant percentage of the Russian military while getting the fuel they need at bargain rates.

 

We may not agree with their apparent "lack of ethics" in this situation but at the same time the USA is supplying Ukraine with weaponry, making a big difference in their ability to defend their own country. Any idea who pays for that? Hmmm, us taxpayers, again. I think it's worth it personally. Russian expansion needs to be curtailed, even if it costs us dearly now. It would cost us more later if we allowed them to take Ukraine. 

 

This is not a simple cut and dried situation by any means. 

There's always more than one way to skin a cat and more than one cat that needs skinning. 😇

[KuruPrionz]

15 hours ago, RABid said:

China is actually patting Russia on the back saying "It will be okay. We are here for you. Just keep sending us the oil and natural gas we need and we will keep paying for it so you can fund your war." Sadly China has become dependent on Russia's natural resources. They are trying to ween themselves off of the need for Russian oil and natural gas, but a solution is years away. Energy resources are turning the Black Sea into the next hotspot. There is a battle between Russia and Turkey over pipelines and shipping lanes. Turkey is even working on a new canal which Russia strongly opposes.

Where did China get the money to buy Russian oil? Take a look at your possessions, country of origin? I'm guilty as charged. The US imports LOTS of Chinese made goods and still more goods from other countries that have components made in China. It's difficult to avoid owning items that were made in China.

 

Thanks to all the money we've spent buying Chinese goods, they can afford to buy the oil they need to make more goods to sell to us here in the USA. 

Not so simple, is it?

[Anderton]

Power is the drug of choice for politicians and their acolytes/enablers. Power is by definition exclusionary, because it seeks to keep others from having power. The process of exclusion is what creates fear in the population at large.

 

As long as power is considered a worthy life goal, we'll continue having problems. A worthier life goal is to divest as much power as possible. A phrase that always resonated with me is "mastery through servitude." ("Servitude" in the sense of voluntarily helping others and society at large, not subjugation, and "mastery" in the sense of having control over your own destiny.)

 

Just think what a different world we would have right now if Russia decided to partner with Ukraine for the mutual benefit of all concerned, and in the process, this would help out Europe and lessen starvation in Africa. Russia doesn't need to "own" Ukraine - simply creating a sphere of influence where Ukraine plays a vital part in Russia's evolution (and vice-versa) would accomplish the desired result, without bloodshed and with massive economic and societal benefits for both partners. And in a decade, Ukraine might want to help rebuild the USSR because of the benefits involved in being joined at the hip with a strong trade partner.

 

 

 

[KuruPrionz]

9 minutes ago, Anderton said:

Power is the drug of choice for politicians and their acolytes/enablers. Power is by definition exclusionary, because it seeks to keep others from having power. The process of exclusion is what creates fear in the population at large.

 

As long as power is considered a worthy life goal, we'll continue having problems. A worthier life goal is to divest as much power as possible. A phrase that always resonated with me is "mastery through servitude." ("Servitude" in the sense of voluntarily helping others and society at large, not subjugation, and "mastery" in the sense of having control over your own destiny.)

 

Just think what a different world we would have right now if Russia decided to partner with Ukraine for the mutual benefit of all concerned, and in the process, this would help out Europe and lessen starvation in Africa. Russia doesn't need to "own" Ukraine - simply creating a sphere of influence where Ukraine plays a vital part in Russia's evolution (and vice-versa) would accomplish the desired result, without bloodshed and with massive economic and societal benefits for both partners. And in a decade, Ukraine might want to help rebuild the USSR because of the benefits involved in being joined at the hip with a strong trade partner.

 

 

 

An excellent post but those who wish to be of service have historically been superseded by those who want to run everything to their own benefit. 

It is two aspects of human nature, quite different in vital ways. For the most part, the "power-grabbers" have succeeded in dominating society. 

Another way to put it is "A high tide floats all boats." It seems there will always be those who just want their own boats in the water, with no regard for the benefits of working WITH others instead of telling them what to do and how they will do it. 

 

[techristian]

I am in Canada, but I live only 2 miles from Detroit and 7 miles from downtown Detroit, so yes I'm a bit concerned. I feel that we should leave Russia and Ukraine alone. BIDEN SHOULDN'T POKE THE BEAR. That way if they kill each other, at least we won't be blown to kingdom come. Having said that, we have lived with the threat of nuclear war since I was born and we are still here........SO DON'T WORRY ABOUT IT !

 

DAN

[analogika]

On 10/10/2022 at 11:53 PM, KuruPrionz said:

Not disagreeing with you but reading articles on Yahoo news this am, there is a sense that parts of what was once the Soviet Union and now is "Russia" may disconnect since they are an indigenous people who have their own language, culture, etc. and ran their own countries prior to being "absorbed" by the USSR. 

Some of these countries may very well join NATO, as Sweden and Finland are doing. 

 

This already happened in the fifteen years following the end of the USSR. 

What's going on now is the exact opposite, with the motherland Russia (well, Putin) seeking to expand its political and geographic sphere of influence back to the former glory of Greater Russia. 

[Anderton]

I think Kuru may be referring to the various republics, like Altai, Bashkortostan, Buryatia, Karelia, etc. etc. that have been in sort of a limbo situation. Some, like Chechnya, are more independent than others. According to the Russian constitution, republics are not allowed to secede from Russia, and some of the republics have constitutions that prevent them from existing independently of the Russian federation. So, if the various existing nationalist movements in various republics start getting more traction (unlikely, but possible), there could be attempts by force to keep them within the federation. Although since Putin, whether Russia really is a "federation" is open to debate...

 

So Analogika, you're right in the sense that these republics had more autonomy prior to the 2000s when Putin started reigning them in, but Kuru is also right that there is dissension bubbling under their surfaces that could result in a push for more autonomy. 

[KuruPrionz]

12 hours ago, techristian said:

I am in Canada, but I live only 2 miles from Detroit and 7 miles from downtown Detroit, so yes I'm a bit concerned. I feel that we should leave Russia and Ukraine alone. BIDEN SHOULDN'T POKE THE BEAR. That way if they kill each other, at least we won't be blown to kingdom come. Having said that, we have lived with the threat of nuclear war since I was born and we are still here........SO DON'T WORRY ABOUT IT !

 

DAN

I think pushing Putin back NOW is very important and I am glad that NATO (which includes the US) is doing it. 

Putin is a "give me an inch and I'll take a mile" sort of dictatorial personality. In much the same way that we should have stopped Hitler sooner, we need to make it clear to Putin that he will not succeed in restoring the "glory" of the Russia that trained him as a KGB agent. Based on the performance of the Russian military in Ukraine, the idea is simply pathetic and tragic. So many lives have been lost in a futile endeavor by a madman who has somehow gained control. 

 

Let him do his thing? Not a chance!!!!!

 

Putin and the ring of people around him are fully aware that starting a nuclear war will lead to Moscow becoming a smoldering crater, with their own molecules being spread far and wide. Yes, the world is likely to be destroyed but they will go with it. There are too many missiles from too many directions aimed at them and as we have seen, the "power and efficiency" of the Russian military is simply propaganda. I'd go dollars to donuts that a significant number of the missiles they have now are defective. and if launched and will cause far more problems for them than anybody else. 

[KuruPrionz]

4 hours ago, analogika said:

 

This already happened in the fifteen years following the end of the USSR. 

What's going on now is the exact opposite, with the motherland Russia (well, Putin) seeking to expand its political and geographic sphere of influence back to the former glory of Greater Russia. 

Or rather, the "legend" of the former glory of Greater Russia. If they had "it", they lost it. 

Putin is a dictator, not a Czar. Russia does have a long history of sociopathic leaders, be they Czars or other rulers. 

Craig nails it above, we will be seeing resistance against "Mother Russia". The Russians may try to keep the actual events from being known but the modern world is not the 1800's, they didn't have cell phones, the internet and other ways of reaching out to the connected population of the world, which is substantial and very wide-spread.

 

In that context, this is an entirely new situation, not a repeat of history but the making of new history. 

[KuruPrionz]

And, here are some of the events currently unfolding. Moscow has moved their troops to fight in Ukraine and left other areas unguarded.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/2-intensifying-border-wars-show-220300507.html

[Mighty Motif Max]

52 minutes ago, KuruPrionz said:

And, here are some of the events currently unfolding. Moscow has moved their troops to fight in Ukraine and left other areas unguarded.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/2-intensifying-border-wars-show-220300507.html

If this war goes long enough and Putin loses enough troops, I wouldn't be surprised if China took advantage of the situation further...I mean, let him deplete his military and decimate morale, then swoop in. I've been thinking about that for a while...seems like a possibility.

[KuruPrionz]

1 hour ago, Abresch B. Eberle said:

If this war goes long enough and Putin loses enough troops, I wouldn't be surprised if China took advantage of the situation further...I mean, let him deplete his military and decimate morale, then swoop in. I've been thinking about that for a while...seems like a possibility.

China plays the long game. They are already buying oil at bargain prices from Russia. They act nice, buy the cheap oil and then Russia spends the money trying to defeat Ukraine. That is definitely a win/win for China. I don't think they want to own Russia, I just think they want to lessen Russia so they can dominate it. 

"Conquering" a country is s total pain in the @ss. 

[BluesB3]

On 10/21/2022 at 11:36 PM, techristian said:

I am in Canada, but I live only 2 miles from Detroit and 7 miles from downtown Detroit, so yes I'm a bit concerned. I feel that we should leave Russia and Ukraine alone. BIDEN SHOULDN'T POKE THE BEAR. That way if they kill each other, at least we won't be blown to kingdom come. Having said that, we have lived with the threat of nuclear war since I was born and we are still here........SO DON'T WORRY ABOUT IT !

 

DAN

My good sir, may I humbly refer you to a somewhat analogous time in the history of the British Commonwealth?

<Click Here>

 

 

[ElmerJFudd]

OK this is the biggest turn of events since this quagmire began.  

 

Yevgeny's Wagner Group is making the drive to Moscow and so far has met little resistance.  

Putin calls for his arrest and vows punishment.  

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142

 

Putin denies fleeing Moscow. 

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/wagner-putin-russia-ukraine-war-live-b2363471.html

[bill5]

And just like that, Prigozhin backs down. I think we may hear about him having an "unfortunate accident" soon. 

 

  

On 3/10/2022 at 6:11 PM, KuruPrionz said:

I would like to believe that we'd evolved but I don't see any conclusive evidence unfortunately. 

It's a curious thing IMO: in some ways I think we absolutely have, but in other ways we're going in the opposite direction. 

 

In general, I am amazed that Russia didn't overwhelm Ukraine quickly. This is one of the most powerful countries on Earth. 

[Anderton]

48 minutes ago, bill5 said:

In general, I am amazed that Russia didn't overwhelm Ukraine quickly. This is was one of the most powerful countries on Earth. 

 

Fixed!

 

Maybe this is what happens when all the people at the top are looking out only for themselves. "Think how much money we'll save if we don't lubricate the bearings on the tanks!" 🤣

[bill5]

Maybe so.  I must say this was surprising, and interesting:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

[ElmerJFudd]

I think what we’ve had here is the most obvious exposure of a powerful regime’s dependence on military contractors to shape the world as they want it - most typically for exploitation of lesser developed nations.  
 

In the US it’s difficult and complicated to rely on Congress to approve use of the military to protect “American interests”. It’s apparently much easier to hire contractors to do these jobs.  
 

In Putin‘s Russia, families are feeling the pain of loss due to his Ukraine war.  It’s risky to call a draft and send teens to die.  But a battalion of prison convicts working for a military contractor?  Much easier to hide and ignore losses, toss in unmarked graves.  The world is still as morally bankrupt and violent a place as it ever was. 

[o0Ampy0o]

Why has Prigozhin been on the front lines? Imagine Putin on the front lines. Imagine the coach of a football team playing in the Super Bowl as the quarterback. The Wagner Group meddles in a wide range of activity worldwide, from covert cyber attacks, spread of disinformation, to overt harassment and torture of citizens and direct fighting on the front lines without regard for any form of rules. They do much of their bidding invisibly by setting up legitimate businesses serving as a disguise for criminal activity. The Wagner Group's presence in Africa has assured access to valuable and lucrative natural resources. Prigozhin personally makes boatloads of money. If supplies are not being sent to Wagner forces on the front lines he could do more being somewhere else. At the least, he could be preserving his own leadership role. He could be protecting his life for that matter. He could also be directly involved in the acquisition and distribution of supplies for his soldiers.

 

It took some brains to identify and execute the reach The Wagner Group has established. It makes no sense that the man responsible for it all is placing himself in such a vulnerable position. He managed to survive this long fighting in Ukraine. Then he publicly called out top military officials for not doing enough, particularly defense minister Sergei Shoigu. He called for Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov to meet with him at the Russian military base in Rostov-on-Don which he took control of.  Then he announced he was taking the fight to Moscow. He publicly disgraced Putin and broadcasted his moves. There is a long trail of dead ex-Putin detractors. These do not appear to be very wise moves. How did a guy seemingly this foolish make it this far? It is too stupid to be true.

 

Balarus is a neighbor to Ukraine. Putin could come out looking like a crafty strategist if Prigozhin suddenly turns his coat right side out and is part of a fresh offensive revealing the whole thing was a decoy. Even if such a maneuver is successfully defended by Ukraine forces the chain of events resolve the perception of weakness from infighting and instability around Putin. It would appear that Putin was never so weak. This distraction might set the stage for Russia to prepare for a renewed offensive while Ukraine believes the enemy is weakening. Ukraine believing they are no longer facing Prigozhin lead Wagner forces would be a costly mistake.

 

But this possible scenario playing out does not address the presence of Prigozhin on the front lines. That has been a huge risk and not necessary for this idea to work. Or maybe it was part of the illusion. He has become a prominent face of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, very much opposite of their otherwise covert activity and separation from Putin (plausible deniability). His public departure could be key to the plan. Whether Wagner could be the same without him or not, it does seem to lessen their power if the leader and his loyalists on the front lines exit the battle.

[bill5]

The whole thing just doesn't make any sense, so clearly there's things going on we don't know about. I mean why take an insanely bold step of marching towards Moscow in the first place, and then suddenly going "oh never mind."  ?? Maybe they're holding the guy's family hostage or something? It sounds like some James Bond thing.

[Stokely]

Choosing whether Wagner or Putin runs Russia is like choosing Saruman vs Sauron.  Not a great choice, and both are what I'd call "evil" though I'm not usually prone to using that word.   

Mercenary armies (like Blackwater who has worked for the US) that can operate outside laws and strictures sounds like a really bad idea to me.   

I hope Ukraine doesn't cave into a shitty "peace deal" like those African leaders were pushing for--because Russia will be right back for more in 5 years or so if they do.  That's really easy for me to say from the safety of my chair.

[David Emm]

Since this has been a brute-force WWII approach as much as not, I'm fascinated, awaiting that moment when Putin's mess becomes wholly unsupportable. I'm talking financial aspects that must eventually start cutting the legs out from under the war. There's also bound to be a point where the public will become more of a force against Putin as they tire of seeing their teenagers killed off. Its historically surreal to watch in real-time.

 

The other issue is that when a new boss pops up within any authoritarian regime, they're never better. Instead, they often double down on bastardy, but what if the national economy drops to a level that starts neutering such actions? Some of that will depend on proxy-war aspects, such as China providing Moscow with oil. There is also a limit to how far that can go if the current boss proves too incompetent. See "surreal" above. 

 

Between this, the writer's strike & my iffy knees, its no wonder I'm drawn to goofy-assed, high-quality distractions such as "Shazam! The Fury of the Gods." 🙄