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Official NFL 2010-2011 Thread


Geoff Grace

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I've developed a bit of a rubric for quarterback evaluation. It involves a dynamic combination raw stats, situational stats, fine tuned dymamic adjustment of confidence intervals, slew hygiene, and a statistical expression of what I call the gut factor. I've been perfecting it for quite a while, with the aim of determining the 10 best active QBs. That Category--top 10--will include just under one third of the league's QBs, so it gets pretty competetive in the bottom five. Thus: here are the top 10 active QBs in the NFL:

 

1. Peyton Manning

2. Peyton Manning

3. Peyton Manning

4. Tom Brady

5. Peyton Manning

6. Drew Brees

7. Peyton Manning

8. Peyton Manning

9. Phillip Rivers

10. Peyton Manning

 

The numbers don't lie...

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You've heard what they say about "Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics. All the stats in the world didn't prevent ole Peyton buddy from throwing a pick in the SB last year and lose a Championship for the Colts.

 

Some days you get the bear and other days the bear gets you. Peyton was had last year when the chips were down.

 

All that said, Peyton is still a great QB, but NFL football is a team sport. Hines Ward said something to that effect after yesterday's game. Of course, the Steelers have to play Baltimore next week. Fortunately, the game is at Heinz field so the Steelers don't have to worry about being mugged on their way to and from the Stadium. What's more, they can be fairly sure their wallets and credit cards will still be in their locker room when they finish the game. ;)

 

After the bye week and them playing Cleveland, the Steelers will have a number of road games against teams that can certainly beat them, no matter who is at QB. We'll see if Rottenburger is worth all the money they paid him and all the embarrassment he has caused the organization.

 

 

Mike T.

 

 

Yamaha Motif ES8, Alesis Ion, Prophet 5 Rev 3.2, 1979 Rhodes Mark 1 Suitcase 73 Piano, Arp Odyssey Md III, Roland R-70 Drum Machine, Digitech Vocalist Live Pro. Roland Boss Chorus Ensemble CE-1.

 

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Mags, I agree with that QB assessment. PM is definitely head and shoulders above the class.

 

Last night's game between the Bears and Packers was good.

 

Cutler still has those errant throws in his arsenal but Martz seems to have a decent plan for helping him run the offense.

 

Rodgers is quickly finding his way to Mags' list. :cool:

PD

 

"The greatest thing you'll ever learn, is just to love and be loved in return."--E. Ahbez "Nature Boy"

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Rodgers is quickly finding his way to Mags' list. :cool:

 

In all honesty, Prof, I actually MEANT Rodgers when I WROTE Rivers.

 

I any case, Aaron and Phillip are in that next class. Only Brees has joined the top tier, and Favre...well...special case. Last year he was top three. Is he capable of getting back up there again? That's a pretty freaking big question in the NFL this year.

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Tuesday Morning (Keyboard) Cornerback -- Week 3

 

I had an odd weekend for week three of the 2010/11 NFL season... "odd" because I didn't have the opportunity to watch a single game. I had a music video to film and edit, and there wasn't a spare second for me to sit in front of a TV, or even check a score on the Internet. Then, being busy with work and assuming the Packers would annihilate Da Bears, I didn't bother watching last night's game either. Some analyst I am, huh? But regardless of all that apathy toward our sport, the numbers don't lie, so let's kick off this week's Cornerback.

 

Pick 'Em Pool

Every single one of us got off to a terrible start last weekend. Out of the 12 of us who made picks, NONE of us got more than one win in the first five games of the week. That's pathetic. After that, some of us (those not named Jeff, for instance) were able to turn it around into a decent week. Antimatter came through strong, racking up 10 points with seven wins in the last eight games. Kudos, and special congrats after being the last place guy in week 2. Mid Life Crisis, Geoff Grace, and Magpel ended up with eight... MLC was one of the few that believed Minnesota would cover the 11-point spread against the Lions, while Geoff and Mags took the underdogs and won (with the Titans and Falcons respectively). Nicely done, gents.

 

Behind those guys, we had richwhite9 (7), kanker (6), dB (6), Saku (5), ProfD (5), jeffk_nfl2010 (5), and GovernorSilver (5) wallowing in our mediocrity. dB's choice of the Rams over the Skins was pretty impressive, though perhaps he just realized what everyone else took until Monday to figure out: Washington is terrible this year. Finally, our bottom barrel guy this week is poor griffinator, with four points. Better luck next time, sir.

 

Survival Pool

We're in that time of year that unless there's a massive upset, the Survival Pool is in status quo mode. Most of the remaining people are making the safest bets (or whoever is playing Buffalo). We had only one elimination in Week 3: NoahZark, who took a risk on the Skins and went down in flames. Mark Zeger, Antimatter, Jeff Klopmeyer, Magpel, Shaka40, BlackandWhite, and Griffinator live on to pick in week four. Once again, by not picking the highest confidence teams (he won with Pittsburgh this week, Oakland last), BlackandWhite is going to be loving life as we get toward the middle of the season and the rest of us have used up all of our supposedly sure-fire picks. I'm impressed. I've tried years making Survival Pool picks like that; I usually last two weeks.

 

That's all for now! Until next weekend, may the football gods shine on your shoulder pads!

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I hang my hat on my consistent mediocrity - and that's just as a musician.

 

I find it much more exhilarating to have moments of mindblowing greatness and moments of disastrous incompetence, myself. You'd be amazed at how satisfying it is having everyone think you are either a genius or a complete hack. :D

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Gotta give a prop, literally, to Jay Cutler, who is getting utterly slaughtered via the potent combo of a Martz system and an inept offensive line and is still finding ways to deliver wins. This is not sustainable, mind you, but it is gutsy.
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Gotta give a prop, literally, to Jay Cutler, who is getting utterly slaughtered via the potent combo of a Martz system and an inept offensive line and is still finding ways to deliver wins. This is not sustainable, mind you, but it is gutsy.

If the Bears can shore up the O-line, I think Martz' system will help more than hurt Cutler. Jay has guts but refuses to check down or throw the ball away when it starts crumbling around him. Sometimes that Favre sh*t works but often times the end result is...INT. :cool:

PD

 

"The greatest thing you'll ever learn, is just to love and be loved in return."--E. Ahbez "Nature Boy"

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I was checking out the CNNSI NFL Power Ranks a few minutes ago. The Steelers are ranked #1. Wow, is that the kiss of death? The Ravens will be trying to beat up my team on Sunday, and even if they lose, they will make sure the Steelers are hurt and bleeding. The Ravens have lost 9 out of the last 10 against the Steelers, and at least the game is AT Pittsburgh.

 

After the Ravens, we draw the BYE, and play the Browns on Oct 17th at home. After that, the schedule will be Miami away on Oct 24th, and the SB Champion NO Saints on.......Halloween...AT New Orleans. Next on Nov 8th comes the Bengals away. So that will be 3 road games in a row, all of which we can lose.

 

I know the Steelers fans are waiting to play the Patriots at HOME on Nov 14th. That should be an interesting game for sure. All too often, the Patriots come to Pittsburgh and embarrass my team. We are hoping to reverse that trend this time.

 

Oddly enough, the 3-0 Bears are ranked #7. Not a lot of love for da Bears!

 

 

Mike T.

Yamaha Motif ES8, Alesis Ion, Prophet 5 Rev 3.2, 1979 Rhodes Mark 1 Suitcase 73 Piano, Arp Odyssey Md III, Roland R-70 Drum Machine, Digitech Vocalist Live Pro. Roland Boss Chorus Ensemble CE-1.

 

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Oddly enough, the 3-0 Bears are ranked #7. Not a lot of love for da Bears!

I guess that depends on how you look at it. They're getting a lot more love than the 15th ranked, 3-0 Chiefs.

 

At this point in the season, the pundits are still factoring more than wins and losses into their conclusions. And well they should--last year, the Broncos started 6-0 and didn't even make the playoffs. A few years ago, the Giants started 0-2 and went on to beat the 18-0 Patriots in the Super Bowl.

 

It's early yet. ;)

 

Best,

 

Geoff

My Blue Someday appears on Apple Music | Spotify | YouTube | Amazon

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Yes, and speaking of the Giants, they are not playing well at all, sometimes even embarrassing. My brother was a big Giants fan, and I really don't like them being down like they've been lately. I don't know that they can fix that team this season.

 

 

Mike T.

Yamaha Motif ES8, Alesis Ion, Prophet 5 Rev 3.2, 1979 Rhodes Mark 1 Suitcase 73 Piano, Arp Odyssey Md III, Roland R-70 Drum Machine, Digitech Vocalist Live Pro. Roland Boss Chorus Ensemble CE-1.

 

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There are a couple of turns in each team's story in a single season, so I still hold out hope that the Giants have already hit their nadir (and if you watched that Tennessee game, it's hard to imagine a team doing itself fewer favors than the Giants did in that game). It might just have been the kind of self-inflicted loss (no offense to VY and his 110 passing yards) that sparks a turnaround and a climate change on the team.

 

Or it is possible that the trouble that began--literally--in Plaxico's pants has fully flowered into a poisoned environment and a flawed team.

 

 

Yes, and speaking of the Giants, they are not playing well at all, sometimes even embarrassing. My brother was a big Giants fan, and I really don't like them being down like they've been lately. I don't know that they can fix that team this season.

 

 

Mike T.

Check out the Sweet Clementines CD at bandcamp
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It would be hard to imagine that a team that played so inspired football could be a "flawed" team. Plex was a big plus to their Offense, and I remember reading in passing that some players that were on their SB team are gone. It could be that the chemistry has changed, or maybe they just don't have enough play-makers on the team to play well enough to win consistently. I don't know, but I sure hope they can come back and play better than they have been.

 

 

Mike T.

Yamaha Motif ES8, Alesis Ion, Prophet 5 Rev 3.2, 1979 Rhodes Mark 1 Suitcase 73 Piano, Arp Odyssey Md III, Roland R-70 Drum Machine, Digitech Vocalist Live Pro. Roland Boss Chorus Ensemble CE-1.

 

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This news is several days late, but left tackle Marcus McNeill finally signed with the Chargers to end his holdout. He took a HUGE paycut to return, but it was his choice to reject the tender that was offered to him several months ago.

 

His current replacement surrendered several sacks on Rivers - beat by pure speed each time. Because McNeill was slapped with a Roster Exemption, he won't be able to play until Week 6. Fortunately, the tough part of the schedule (Pats, Titans, Texans, Broncos, Colts) begins at Week 7.

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Congrats, Ken.

 

The Packers had 17 penalties tonight, tying a 50-something year old franchise record.

 

Yeah. They basically handed the game to the Bears.

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The NYG's most productive defensive player so far this year--Mathias Kiwanuka--is out two to three months with a bulging next disk. Just thought you should know before you seal your picks...

 

This is supposed to be our great depth position, with Osi and Tuck still on the ends, not to mention the first round pick, but Mathias was finally appearing to come into his own. Sad to hear this.

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The Steelers did not play a good game. They didn't successfully rush the Ravens QB and he was free to pick the Steelers Defense apart. Steelers had a lot of penalties, 2 false starts at the critical end of the game when they were trying to hang onto their 4 point lead. When the Ravens got the ball back at the Steelers 49 yard line with two minutes to play, the Steelers played the famous "Prevent" Defense, which didn't work. The Ravens moved the ball down the field and won the game.

 

The worst thing I noticed is that Baltimore was pushing the Steelers around and I felt they had the upper hand most of the game. #43 played today, but Troy was invisible.

 

We got two turnovers and didn't get any points. Can't do that against Baltimore, those games are always too close.

 

 

Mike T.

Yamaha Motif ES8, Alesis Ion, Prophet 5 Rev 3.2, 1979 Rhodes Mark 1 Suitcase 73 Piano, Arp Odyssey Md III, Roland R-70 Drum Machine, Digitech Vocalist Live Pro. Roland Boss Chorus Ensemble CE-1.

 

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The Eagles fans surprised me with their reception of McNabb. Good for them.

 

Taking Vick out was the key to the Skins win. As usually this season, the Skins barely showed up in the second half.

 

Skins fans - the word of the season is DEFIBRILLATOR.

 

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