Economic impact of AI on wide range of jobs

[Anderton]

10 hours ago, KenElevenShadows said:

I think it they would be even safer if all cars were self-driving cars. I have no actual hard evidence to back that up, of course, but it seems logical.

 

Very logical, because they could all be networked to an updated kind of Google Maps. Cars could be directed to minimize traffic issues, and kept at safe speeds as opposed to the occasional idiot who goes 90 mph in the right lane. Of course, we'd have to put up with all the "our freedome is being taken away from us! big brother is telling me how I can drive!!!" To which my response would be okay, let's take down the traffic lights, stop signs, and all signage on the roads. After all, they're telling us what to do. One-way street? Who cares?

[Notes_Norton]

19 hours ago, KenElevenShadows said:

I think it they would be even safer if all cars were self-driving cars. I have no actual hard evidence to back that up, of course, but it seems logical.

 

I agree, but I won't be an early adopter. The cutting edge is often the bleeding edge, which is even more appropriate when the computer is driving your car. 

And most of us know, don't buy version 1.0 of the software.

 

On long trips, I enjoy driving more than I do being a passenger. I get bored in the 'shotgun' seat after a while.

 

But if all self-driving cars happens in my lifetime, I'll comply.

 

Notes ♫ 

[ElmerJFudd]

6 hours ago, Notes_Norton said:

 

I agree, but I won't be an early adopter. The cutting edge is often the bleeding edge, which is even more appropriate when the computer is driving your car. 

And most of us know, don't buy version 1.0 of the software.

 

On long trips, I enjoy driving more than I do being a passenger. I get bored in the 'shotgun' seat after a while.

 

But if all self-driving cars happens in my lifetime, I'll comply.

 

Notes ♫ 

The tech is not so early any longer.  As an example Tesla put self driving on their 2014 models. 

[KenElevenShadows]

2 minutes ago, ElmerJFudd said:

The tech is not so early any longer.  As an example Tesla put self driving on their 2014 models. 

 

I think ten years of technology is still considered "early", particularly given how long automobiles have been around. I would characterize EVs as "early" technology as well.

 

Regardless, we won't see every single car be self-driving cars for quite some time.

[David Emm]

16 hours ago, Anderton said:

Very logical, because they could all be networked to an updated kind of Google Maps. Cars could be directed to minimize traffic issues, and kept at safe speeds as opposed to the occasional idiot who goes 90 mph in the right lane. Of course, we'd have to put up with all the "our freedome is being taken away from us! big brother is telling me how I can drive!!!" To which my response would be okay, let's take down the traffic lights, stop signs, and all signage on the roads. After all, they're telling us what to do. One-way street? Who cares?

 

I've driven in several large cities and I've long since seen "Mad Max" movies as real-world driving instruction videos. The next tolerated misstep for the convenience of self-driving cars will be the percentage of glitches that send people into ponds or up a down ramp. Insurance companies love the Acts O' God section.

 

I'm sure I'm not the first to consider the benefits of "The Purge" in an automotive form. If you declare a Saturday as Balls Out Day, with no traffic restrictions, Sunday will be so quiet, even your dog will be creeped out. Natural Selection Wars, next on A&E!

[KenElevenShadows]

16 hours ago, Anderton said:

 

Very logical, because they could all be networked to an updated kind of Google Maps. Cars could be directed to minimize traffic issues, and kept at safe speeds as opposed to the occasional idiot who goes 90 mph in the right lane. Of course, we'd have to put up with all the "our freedome is being taken away from us! big brother is telling me how I can drive!!!" To which my response would be okay, let's take down the traffic lights, stop signs, and all signage on the roads. After all, they're telling us what to do. One-way street? Who cares?

 

Exactly. Also, even if they are not all networked, self-driving cars would still be considerably more predictable than human-driven cars.

[ElmerJFudd]

33 minutes ago, KenElevenShadows said:

 

I think ten years of technology is still considered "early", particularly given how long automobiles have been around. I would characterize EVs as "early" technology as well.

 

Regardless, we won't see every single car be self-driving cars for quite some time.

It will take a complete shift to bring EV and self driving features to cars that are affordable for the masses.  Then add 10 years to that. The vast majority of Americans drive used cars under $20k.  

[KenElevenShadows]

1 hour ago, ElmerJFudd said:

It will take a complete shift to bring EV and self driving features to cars that are affordable for the masses.  Then add 10 years to that. The vast majority of Americans drive used cars under $20k.  

 

That sounds logical.

 

And it sounds like I am one of the vast majority of Americans then, as I have never owned a new car, and by far my most expensive car purchase has been $17,000.

[ElmerJFudd]

1 hour ago, KenElevenShadows said:

 

That sounds logical.

 

And it sounds like I am one of the vast majority of Americans then, as I have never owned a new car, and by far my most expensive car purchase has been $17,000.

We must move in the same circles.  😉

[Notes_Norton]

17 hours ago, ElmerJFudd said:

The tech is not so early any longer.  As an example Tesla put self driving on their 2014 models. 

But they still aren't reliable. 

 

They haven't even reached beta testing stage yet.

 

They still do things they shouldn't, which is why someone in the driver's seat is supposed to be paying attention at all times. The problem with that is; Sitting in the drivers' seat of a car that is driving itself, lulls the person in that seat so he/she isn't paying proper attention.
 

The result of that is accidents that can take the life of the people in the car, and others.

With time, more failures (bugs), software patches, more bugs, and more patches, eventually they will be safer. I would guess that getting a driverless car to go from Boston to Atlanta safely is more difficult software-wise than landing a probe on Mars. So give them time and experience, but I'm getting in one yet.

[Philbo King]

On 5/27/2024 at 12:33 AM, Anderton said:

 

Very logical, because they could all be networked to an updated kind of Google Maps. Cars could be directed to minimize traffic issues, and kept at safe speeds as opposed to the occasional idiot who goes 90 mph in the right lane. Of course, we'd have to put up with all the "our freedome is being taken away from us! big brother is telling me how I can drive!!!" To which my response would be okay, let's take down the traffic lights, stop signs, and all signage on the roads. After all, they're telling us what to do. One-way street? Who cares?

One interesting thing I noticed the last time I drove in the Chicago Loop.  Wherever Google said it was clear quickly (like in 30 seconds) became congested, while those shown as congested cleared out just as quickly.  My theory is that the other drivers were using Google too, causing oscillations of congestion.  At that time I just headed toward the area shown as more congested for smooth sailing.

 

Since then we've come to our senses, and just ride a train into Chicago...

[ElmerJFudd]

I bet autonomous driving does a lot better when on the road with autonomous vehicles.  It’s likely humans are the most unpredictable.   Especially if the auto-driving cars communicate distance, speed and intention to each other.  

[Stokely]

Thinking forward on autonomous cars is the idea that we don't own our cars.  That basically there's just a fleet of them tooling around out there like robot ubers--need to go somewhere, flag one down (presumably via app!).   Unload yourself and your stuff, and say bye to that one.

I can't say that would be so terrible on paper, as long as I can get a ride that can hold my gear, and know that I can get a ride at any time back home.

I detest vacation road trips, I know those often come up in car discussions about EVs....so personally I'm not too worried about those   

A fleet of self-driving vehicles could potentially be incredibly efficient when it comes to driving together, allowing more vehicles to be on the road without all the human crap (super slow, super fast drivers, and above all accidents).   Eh, doubt we'll see anything like that in my lifetime if ever, not the least because FREEEDOOOOMMMM everyone wants their own car that says "this is me".   

[KenElevenShadows]

5 hours ago, Stokely said:

A fleet of self-driving vehicles could potentially be incredibly efficient when it comes to driving together, allowing more vehicles to be on the road without all the human crap (super slow, super fast drivers, and above all accidents).   Eh, doubt we'll see anything like that in my lifetime if ever, not the least because FREEEDOOOOMMMM everyone wants their own car that says "this is me".   

 

Perhaps someday it might be efficient to have specific zones where there are self-driving vehicles, such as in large metropolitan areas.

 

There will always be a need for people like me to not participate in that, and to be able to drive a car in places where everyone is not driving together. For instance, I am on dirt roads several times a month, often photographing the desert at night or seeking out long-forgotten abandoned places or amazing scenery. So I drive on dirt roads quite a bit, some of which are a bit rough. It might be difficult for AI to navigate these roads, and it certainly might be difficult for everyone to drive together in these areas.

 

It's cool to think of possible scenarios like this even though it's a ways off (or may never happen).

[Stokely]

There are sure to be a ton of edge cases.   Anything requiring hauling for example...lots of boats, trailers campers out there   All those service vehicles festooned with tools and materials, etc.

I think that is probably likely if this catches on at all--metro zones where it's mostly or all robot vehicles.  Still have issues there with deliveries and probably lots of other things.  

[Notes_Norton]

5 hours ago, Stokely said:

I detest vacation road trips, I know those often come up in car discussions about EVs....so personally I'm not too worried about those   

I love road trips.

 

Probably because my father liked to drive. We would drive from as far as Connecticut, New York, or New Jersey to South Florida to visit relatives.

After high school, I tried to join the Air Force and got a 4F on my physical. So instead, I got in a road band. 4 guys, one car, and a 4×6' trailer full of instruments. What a gas.

I've driven to all of the lower 48 US States, and much of Canada. Yukon and Labrador being the farthest. I've rented cars and/or campers in Alaska and Hawaii too, plus Mexico, Costa Rica, Australia, the UK, and a few parts of Europe. In Europe, I mixed rental cars with public transportation; trains, buses, and trolleys.

Driving gives me the freedom of going at our pace, stopping if we find something interesting, and pleasant company with me (wife).

 

As a musician, I've taken jobs more than 200 miles away. Mostly from people who moved from our area to other parts of Florida. I figure time and fuel, give them a price, and if they buy, I'm all for it.

 

For these reasons, I'd never buy an electric car, but a plug-in hybrid would be my best choice.

 

Notes ♫

 

[ProfD]

Believe that in a similar thread, I've mentioned there will be a need for a UBI (Universal Basic Income) when AI eliminates many jobs.

 

From a sociopolitical perspective, UBI will be a heavy lift in determining who qualifies and for how much.

 

Accepting AI as a replacement in jobs would suggest that humans want to work less or not at all.

 

Then, I'm left to wonder how much more productive will people be with more free time on their hands. 

 

By extension, what will make people more attractive and interesting when they have little or nothing to do. 

 

Humans reduced to robots and AI will be virtually indistinguishable.  Hopefully, I will not be around to live in that reality.😎

[Anderton]

On 5/29/2024 at 2:30 PM, KenElevenShadows said:

Perhaps someday it might be efficient to have specific zones where there are self-driving vehicles, such as in large metropolitan areas.

 

I don't know if there's a "one size fits all" solution but there's the potential for multiple solutions. For example, in places where a lot of people commute to work via rail (e.g., NYC bedroom communities), there are large parking lots. You park your car, and take the train. 

 

However, not all cities have decent train service. But maybe you could apply a similar concept to electric cars. You drive your IC or EV to a large parking lot, loaded with small EVs. You commute with the small/efficient/a-few-bucks-a-day-to-rent EV, park it (and you'll find it easier to park a small car), then at night you drive it back to the EV parking lot, plug it in so it charges overnight, and then drive back home in your car. Granted, rail would be better in many ways, but it's not always available.

 

There are obvious holes in that solution, but some variation might work well for specific situations.

[Anderton]

3 hours ago, ProfD said:

Then, I'm left to wonder how much more productive will people be with more free time on their hands. 

 

By extension, what will make people more attractive and interesting when they have little or nothing to do. 

 

When I visited the Netherlands several years ago, artists could survive on the dole and not have to work. I'm not sure if it's still that way. I thought that was great, because I sure would make a lot more music if I didn't have to be concerned with having it support me. I expressed this to a friend, and he said "It's not really that great. You get a lot of work from bored artists."

 

So I think ultimately it depends on the person more than the circumstances. If my wife had unlimited free time, she'd cook food and take it to homeless shelters, as well as make jewelry and art for her friends. But if she was someone else, she might sit on a couch and watch re-runs of reality TV shows all day. 

[ProfD]

2 hours ago, Anderton said:

So I think ultimately it depends on the person more than the circumstances.

IMO, humans need a balance of some type of *work* and *play* in order to keep them from being destructive to themselves and/or others.

 

I believe there is truth in the adage that idle hands and minds aren't a good thing.😎

[Notes_Norton]

8 hours ago, ProfD said:

Believe that in a similar thread, I've mentioned there will be a need for a UBI (Universal Basic Income) when AI eliminates many jobs.

I don't see that in the USA. One of our political parties is so anti-welfare for the poor, but pro-welfare for the already rich, that they will block any attempts from anyone to get UBI.

 

That also tends to go towards socialism, which a lot of people are also extremely opposed to.

Me? I don't see extreme capitalism or socialism as the answer. I think a mixture would be great if we can find the point where both the capitalism sector and the socialism sector benefit our society. 

Notes ♫

[ProfD]

25 minutes ago, Notes_Norton said:

I don't see that in the USA.

 

....they will block any attempts from anyone to get UBI.

 

That also tends to go towards socialism, which a lot of people are also extremely opposed to.

Right now, capitalism works because if does just enough to create the illusion of a middle class. 

 

A UBI will be necessary in order to prevent another civil war especially if too many people from the majority become unemployed and/or poorer.😎

[ElmerJFudd]

3 hours ago, Notes_Norton said:

I don't see that in the USA. One of our political parties is so anti-welfare for the poor, but pro-welfare for the already rich, that they will block any attempts from anyone to get UBI.

 

That also tends to go towards socialism, which a lot of people are also extremely opposed to.

Me? I don't see extreme capitalism or socialism as the answer. I think a mixture would be great if we can find the point where both the capitalism sector and the socialism sector benefit our society. 

Notes ♫

There will come a day when another plan is necessary.  Painfully necessary.  When that time will arrive is hard to predict.  But, one would hope that a plan and gradual steps are made before there is civil unrest.   

[Notes_Norton]

I agree that something needs to be done, but I don't know exactly what that will be. I'm not an expert in that field.

But when AI and other automation processes take away too many jobs, and the desperately poor class gets large enough, that's when civil unrest will begin. IMO, the upper 1% does not need to have over 50% of the wealth of this country. As long as the balance is where too many people are starving, things will go on as usual. The country is so politically divided that it's going to take a lot to make any change. And we all know, “Every kingdom divided against itself is laid waste, and no city or house divided against itself will stand.”

I've also read worst case predictions that if we keep warming the planet at the rate we are today, our food crops will start failing around 2050. So if correct, I guess civil unrest will come anyway.

 

Notes ♫

[Threadslayer]

21 hours ago, Anderton said:

"It's not really that great. You get a lot of work from bored artists."

Another way to put that is: Any system that does not champion excellence encourages mediocrity.

[Anderton]

On 6/1/2024 at 10:37 AM, Threadslayer said:

Another way to put that is: Any system that does not champion excellence encourages mediocrity.

 

And the corollary: Any system that does not reward excellence will cause people to look for a different system.

[KenElevenShadows]

On 5/31/2024 at 4:51 PM, Notes_Norton said:

I don't see that in the USA. One of our political parties is so anti-welfare for the poor, but pro-welfare for the already rich, that they will block any attempts from anyone to get UBI.

 

That also tends to go towards socialism, which a lot of people are also extremely opposed to.

Me? I don't see extreme capitalism or socialism as the answer. I think a mixture would be great if we can find the point where both the capitalism sector and the socialism sector benefit our society. 

Notes ♫

 

I would unfortunately agree with this. I actually like the idea of UBI, at least in theory, but feel that there's no way it will ever be implemented in the U.S., a place where we can't really even get universal healthcare that every other developed country has, much less a livable wage.

[ElmerJFudd]

Creating video from text

Sora is an AI model that can create realistic and imaginative scenes from text instructions.

https://openai.com/index/sora/

 

Just read about this today.  I don't see a way to test it yet, but I suspect it will be just as disruptive as what is happening in music and graphic arts. 

[ElmerJFudd]

[KenElevenShadows]

Thankfully, it does some useful stuff.

 

It can be monitoring various aspects of agricultural elements, detect cancerous cells, alert people when gunshots are heard, plan gardens with drought-resistant plants, aid with health and nutrition plans, design hardware for spaceships and ten million other things that are lighter, better, and stronger than human designs, analyze data sets, sort through archives of pictures, fix bugs in codes, make insulin analogs for diabetics and immune cells that fight cancer or aid in Parkinson's or malaria research and identification, test hypotheses faster than humans, identify diseases in humans and plants, create more effective spam filters for email, cleaning offices, analyze chronic conditions with lab and other medical data to ensure early diagnoses, use  the combination of historical data and medical intelligence for the discovery of new drugs, identify defects and nutrient deficiencies in the soil, improve the in-vehicle experience and provide additional systems like emergency braking, blind-spot monitoring, and driver-assist steering for driving cars, detect changes in financial transaction patterns and other potential red flags that can signify fraud, in astronomy it can establish that galaxy mergers were the primary force underlying starbursts, analyze immense teraquads of data, identify data security threats...