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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Bill H. #3032367 03/09/20 05:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Bill H.
Right now there are 5 people viewing this forum versus 217 over at Keyboard Corner. Fellow KC'ers should we start our own separate thread over there?


One reason for this forum is that it has always covered a broad range of topics that involve entertainment in general, trends, technology, musical philosophy, etc. I think it makes more sense to keep the Keyboard Corner about...well, keyboards smile Of course there's a solid community there, and the community wants to talk about things other than keyboards from time to time - but now you have a place for that! KC is IMHO the gold standard of keyboard-related discussion, that's what makes it unique.

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032374 03/09/20 05:16 PM
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I wish the reaction to the coronavirus was a little more nuanced than "WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE"! or "Hey, just some old people are in trouble, it's not really worse than a cold."

You really have to consider that morbidity (the ratio of sick to well people in a community) is as important as mortality, if not more so. When I was sick with whatever I had (and in retrospect, it really sounds very similar to what coronavirus patients are experiencing), I was down for the count for pretty much six weeks, and fatigued for some additional time after that. I really didn't go anywhere or do anything because I just didn't feel well, so for sure, I wasn't helping the economy. But it also meant that my productivity took a nose dive. Attending to hard deadlines was all I could do. Any soft deadline, like a book or product, got delayed. Here it is March, and I still haven't finished working through the backlog from being out of commission for that long.

Now, imagine if 20% or 30% of the population went through the same thing. It would have a huge economic impact. So there are reasons for containing a pandemic and if that doesn't work, mitigating the effects, even if the mortality rate is 0%.

Last edited by Anderton; 03/09/20 05:16 PM.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032375 03/09/20 05:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Originally Posted by Bill H.
Right now there are 5 people viewing this forum versus 217 over at Keyboard Corner. Fellow KC'ers should we start our own separate thread over there?


One reason for this forum is that it has always covered a broad range of topics that involve entertainment in general, trends, technology, musical philosophy, etc. I think it makes more sense to keep the Keyboard Corner about...well, keyboards smile Of course there's a solid community there, and the community wants to talk about things other than keyboards from time to time - but now you have a place for that! KC is IMHO the gold standard of keyboard-related discussion, that's what makes it unique.


Since most have posted about the coronavirus in general and not specifically about our gigs, your point is well taken Craig. I'm good with keeping it here thu

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032414 03/09/20 10:14 PM
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The big problem is that there are too many variables at the moment to make anything other than (somewhat) informed speculation based on what's happened in the past - which may not be what happens in the future. For example, it's often mentioned that standard flu strains kill a lot of people; but how many would be killed if there weren't flu vaccines and if people hadn't built up immunity over the years? Will the corona virus mutate into other strains to which people don't have any immunity yet, or will it just fade away?

And because we really don't know yet what we're facing, there are going be two camps...the "abundance of caution" camp that won't get on an airplane, and the "well all I need to do is wash my hands, no big deal."

Here's my main takeaway: If society ever does break down, toilet paper will be a much better investment than gold smile

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032419 03/09/20 11:02 PM
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Even better, if someone ever invents hand sanitising toilet paper they will rule the world wink


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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032438 03/10/20 02:05 AM
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Doubt if this will make national news since St. Louis is "flyover country" but there's a bunch of drama and outrage over something has happened after receiving our first case. The infectet person had come here from Italy and the family was supposed to stay quarantined. However it was learned that over the weekend, the father and daughter attended a school Father/Daughter dance at the Ritz Carlton, potentially exposing other attendees, not to mention hotel guests.


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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
J. Dan #3032442 03/10/20 02:24 AM
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Originally Posted by J. Dead
Doubt if this will make national news


I had to search for a few minutes but saw an article that NBC news just published 3 hours ago as of this post.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...ntine-took-other-daughter-dance-n1153586


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032464 03/10/20 05:03 AM
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The news keeps talking about the losses to cruise ships and airlines, but it sure seems festivals and sporting events are taking a major hit - now the Ultra Music Festival in Miami has been cancelled. I really don't know if all this is prudent and will make a difference in preventing the spread of the virus, or is alarmist silliness that won't make much difference anyway.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032469 03/10/20 05:33 AM
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I think the latter is the case.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032482 03/10/20 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
I really don't know if all this is prudent and will make a difference in preventing the spread of the virus, or is alarmist silliness that won't make much difference anyway.

I've been wondering that myself. How much of this is because of online news media and social media getting lots of people worked up and scared? Or is it prudent because the Baby Boomers are are a large percentage of the population and now old enough to be in the "danger zone"? Of course, they they probably aren't going to some of these events being cancelled. I know it can spread to them by people who would have gone to these events though.


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032533 03/10/20 03:29 PM
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I'm going to visit the nice folks at Sweetewater this week, so I get to fly through O'Hare a couple of times. Should be an interesting experience. duck

dB

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Dave Bryce #3032542 03/10/20 03:46 PM
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Looks like Coachella is going to be put off for 6 months

https://www.latimes.com/entertainme...stival-postponed-rescheduled-coronavirus


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032554 03/10/20 04:21 PM
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We went to Cancun for the last week of February when coronavirus was just becoming a thing. We passed through Atlanta on the way out and back. Flights and airports were full and I didn't see many "cough filters" on people. No one seemed to be very concerned, the "scare" mainly had to do with China then I suppose. In mid January I was contacted by my supervisor at work wanting to know if we'd traveled through any airports over the Christmas/New Years break. We had traveled to Charleston SC during that time once again passing through the Atlanta airport but that didn't register any concerns apparently.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
J. Dan #3032593 03/10/20 06:09 PM
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Originally Posted by J. Dead
I think the latter is the case.

I hope you're right. I've been thinking about this some more, and here's what we know as fact based on what happened in China.

* It's highly contagious. Left unchecked, cases double about every week.
* It has a higher mortality rate than other strains of flu.
* Because it is a new strain, no one has immunity, and there's no vaccine.

So whether it becomes serious or not depends on whether it can be contained. China locked down an entire city to keep it from spreading to other cities. At the moment, it seems the Wuhan experience is like a forest fire - it eventually burns out when it runs out of trees. It's an open question whether or not sparks will go to other cities and restart the fire.

It kind of reminds me of Y2K. Remember how that was supposed to end civilization as we know it? Well, when all was said and done, people concluded it was no big deal because no serious problems surfaced. But...because of the hysteria, code was fixed and systems were checked. We have no idea whether it would have been the disaster people expected, had those steps not been taken.

It's probably the same with the virus. If efforts at containment and mitigation are successful, then it will seem like the virus was no big deal. The question on many people's minds seems to be just how far do you take containment and mitigation? Do you really need to ban gatherings of people and cancel or postpone events like SXSW? Based on the Chinese experience, it seems the answer is that erring on the side of caution will cause damage, but not erring on the side of caution could cause more damage.

Sometimes in life there are no good options for a situation, only less bad ones...argh.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032599 03/10/20 06:30 PM
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Oh, and I'd like to thank everyone for keeping politics out of this. I care only about how it affects us, and of course, the entertainment industry.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032630 03/10/20 08:40 PM
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Synthplex and ASCAP EXPO were just postponed today.

dB

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Dave Bryce #3032635 03/10/20 09:02 PM
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Synthplex website is saying the show will go on as scheduled.
Inside information mabe? idk


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
davedoerfler #3032640 03/10/20 09:30 PM
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Originally Posted by davedoerfler
Synthplex website is saying the show will go on as scheduled.
Inside information mabe? idk
An email was sent out to presenters and people who registered. The website has now been updated.

Bummer!!! Well, I have to go to California anyway...tied in some other obligations with going to SynthPlex. Maybe I can push those around.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032670 03/11/20 12:34 AM
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I play a nursing home gig once or twice a month. they called me the other day and cancelled until further notice. They're restricting visitors to the facility to family members only. Didn't surprise me a bit, as that is an extremely vulnerable population, but I think they are just the tip of the iceberg. I'm starting to have discussions with my wife about what monthly bills we can afford to let slide if it comes down to lots of gigs being cancelled

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
area51recording #3032672 03/11/20 12:56 AM
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Originally Posted by area51recording
I'm starting to have discussions with my wife about what monthly bills we can afford to let slide if it comes down to lots of gigs being cancelled
What a difficult position. Sadly, you're not alone...hopefully the whole virus thing will play itself out expeditiously.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032688 03/11/20 03:56 AM
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My wife is one of the ladies who goes to the primary and secondary schools and tests kids hearing and vision. So, sure, almost every day, some little sweet kidlet turns his/her head up with those big brown or blue eyes wide open, intakes big and sharp, and sneezes straight in my wife's face.

So she mentioned the other day, "if the coronavirus gets hold here, I'll have to do some thinking about keeping my job or not." She's diabetic. We're not young. Craig is older, but that's not saying much smile

And we're at that point in life where we're at our peak earning years, trying to catch up in savings and whatnot, before retirement is not an option but a necessity. Without her job, things would change in a major way for the duration.

So, yeah...it's on our mind, this virus and what might happen.

I have to admit - I really don't know whether it would be better for society to take all the safe routes here and shut the thing down via lack of transmission and suffer the economic consequences whatever they may be...or....soldier on like Brits being bombed in '40, keeping up daily life, keeping the wheels turning, the mail delivered, showing up at work, 'cause, well, we refuse to die in a hole scared of uncertainties.

Maybe we just muddle through somewhere between the two tacks. 'Till they come up with a decent vaccine. Everyone equally unsatisfied, but we get through it.

Uncertainty, just by itself, is a sort of acid to the soul, isn't it? Unless you don't let it do that.

nat

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Nowarezman #3032699 03/11/20 07:28 AM
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Originally Posted by Nowarezman
I have to admit - I really don't know whether it would be better for society to take all the safe routes here and shut the thing down via lack of transmission and suffer the economic consequences whatever they may be...or....soldier on like Brits being bombed in '40, keeping up daily life, keeping the wheels turning, the mail delivered, showing up at work, 'cause, well, we refuse to die in a hole scared of uncertainties.

The problem is that the thing isn't digital, where either you're fine or you die. As mentioned in a previous post, when I had whatever I had late last year, my productivity was maybe 20% of normal. I hit all my hard deadlines but anything non-essential got pushed back. It was hard to get out of bed, I was so fatigued. If a significant portion of the population was too sick to get out of bed, that would create an economic problem that might be just as bad as what's happening now.

Either way it's a problem. Best case scenario is that all the paranoia is paying off, the virus won't spread much more, and it will just dissipate. I don't think it's doomsday time, but I do expect a rough ride for a while.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032701 03/11/20 07:36 AM
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Well tonight at the pharmacy, the girl behind the counter was excited because she had just hear that all her classes are canceled until April and she had a test next week she was worried about. I have to admit that I'm now old enough, that it took the entire walker back to the car for me to wrap my head around the practical details, particularly online classes, before I realized that she was in college and not high school.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032725 03/11/20 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Because it is a new strain, no one has immunity, and there's no vaccine


Scientists were close to a coronavirus vaccine years ago. Then the money dried up.

Quote
"We could have had this ready to go and been testing the vaccine's efficacy at the start of this new outbreak in China," said Hotez, who believes the vaccine could provide cross-protection against the new coronavirus, which causes a respiratory disease known as COVID-19. "There is a problem with the ecosystem in vaccine development, and we've got to fix this."


Originally Posted by Anderton
So whether it becomes serious or not depends on whether it can be contained. China locked down an entire city to keep it from spreading to other cities. At the moment, it seems the Wuhan experience is like a forest fire - it eventually burns out when it runs out of trees. It's an open question whether or not sparks will go to other cities and restart the fire.

It kind of reminds me of Y2K. Remember how that was supposed to end civilization as we know it? Well, when all was said and done, people concluded it was no big deal because no serious problems surfaced. But...because of the hysteria, code was fixed and systems were checked. We have no idea whether it would have been the disaster people expected, had those steps not been taken.

It's probably the same with the virus. If efforts at containment and mitigation are successful, then it will seem like the virus was no big deal. The question on many people's minds seems to be just how far do you take containment and mitigation? Do you really need to ban gatherings of people and cancel or postpone events like SXSW? Based on the Chinese experience, it seems the answer is that erring on the side of caution will cause damage, but not erring on the side of caution could cause more damage.


This is a really interesting analysis of Exponential Growth and Epidemics. Until I saw this, I wondered if this was stoppable at all, but he's saying it is, with some effort on our part. It seems some short-term suffering will help in the long term.


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032814 03/11/20 07:55 PM
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Big Ears just announced cancellation. Shame, as I love that festival, even though I wasn't planning to go this year, but that's how it goes

https://bigearsfestival.org/big-ears-festival-covid-19-cancellation/

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032825 03/11/20 08:51 PM
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And another big one down - the NAB show has been cancelled on account of virus panic. First no-show for them in nearly 100 years of shows. Says here: "We are currently considering a number of potential alternatives to create the best possible experience for our community."

Glad I decided not to go this year (hotel rooms too expensive) so I don't have a bought-in-advance plane ticket going to waste.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Mike Rivers #3032845 03/11/20 11:41 PM
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‘Everything Is in Chaos’: The Concert Business Stands to Lose Billions From Coronavirus

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/...oncerts-coronavirus-risks-losses-965482/


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Mike Rivers #3032850 03/12/20 12:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Mike Rivers
And another big one down - the NAB show has been cancelled on account of virus panic. First no-show for them in nearly 100 years of shows. Says here: "We are currently considering a number of potential alternatives to create the best possible experience for our community."


I've been talking for the last 15 years about why there should be a shift to virtual trade shows, and all the elements needed to make them successful. Maybe people will listen to me now smile

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032882 03/12/20 04:27 AM
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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032899 03/12/20 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton

I've been talking for the last 15 years about why there should be a shift to virtual trade shows, and all the elements needed to make them successful. Maybe people will listen to me now smile


I hope not. In a sense, we have virtual trade shows (at least in our trade) now in the plethora of videos of booth visits, and the "show reports" in magazines like Mix or Recording where there's a two sentence description of new and old products. I like to think that my virtual trade shows (reports) are better, but they're pretty limited in scope. What I do at shows is talk one-on-one with the exhibitors and learn enough about their products so that I can explain them to others. How's that going to be if virtualized? Make an appointment to put on goggles and talk with Glen Coleman about how his insert switching on his new monitor controller works? And I can read preprints of papers on line, but panel discussions are interactive both among panelists and audience, so how's that going to work? And then there's the informal meetings at the hotel bars.

What's your concept of a virtual trade show? Maybe my virtual experience is too limited to conceive of how a virtual trade show could work for me.

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