Official NFL 2006-2007 Thread

[SilverDragonSoun]

We have a boat load of media here locally where I live for the BCS National Championship game. Many of these guys are interviewed on local sports radio and the NFL always comes up with the local commentators asking for predictions. I was surprised to hear how many people are picking the Patriots, about a 4-1 ratio, and the same media was almost unanimously picking the winner of the Eagles/ Saints game as the NFC superbowl representative. Like Scott, I have no idea who is going to win the Pats/Chargers game.

[MikeT156]

Quote by Governorsilver:

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That's a big question indeed. Will Marty continue to stay out of offensive coordinator Cam Cameron's way?

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I hope Marty learned his lesson earlier in the season when he went conservative and lost to Baltimore.

 

Mike T.

[Magpel]

I'm hearing lots of talk in NY that "no one wants the Pats...," "The last team Marty wanted to see coming into town was NE..." -- Yeah, it really takes brains and football acumen to see that a 3x SB champ team has a good shot against a young team with a young QB with a coach who has had very little postseason success.

 

I think the Chargers will control the game and win comfortably--say, by 10. Just my prediction. Score aside, yesterday was not an easy win for the Pats. The Chargers will be fresh and fast.

 

On the other hand, I think the colts will edge the Ravens on a Vinatieri FG as time expires.

 

I think the BEars will beat the Seahwaks in a very dull game.

 

Phi-NO, to me, is a big 'ol toss up, but I think NO will make enough plays to win.

 

So to review:

 

Chargers

Colts

Bears

Saints

 

One bye team goes down, the one that many "in the know" are picking to go all the way...

[Griffinator]

Originally posted by Magpel:

I'm hearing lots of talk in NY that "no one wants the Pats...," "The last team Marty wanted to see coming into town was NE..." -- Yeah, it really takes brains and football acument to see that a 3x SB champ team has a good shot against a young team with a young QB with a coach who has had very little postseason success.

The fact that everyone's saying "watch out for the Pats" does not equate to everyone saying the Pats will win in SD.

 

In fact, on the NFL Blitz, I watched one guy say "I'm picking San Diego, but if NE wins, I won't be shocked"

 

That's called respect.

 

The Pats have earned the respect of everyone in the football world, because of their ability to overcome seemingly impossible odds to win in the playoffs.

 

Vegas still has the Chargers favored by 5. What does that tell you?

[RABid]

Is this the same experts on TV that were predicting Cincinnati to be in the Superbowl?

 

Robert

[steadyb]

Originally posted by Magpel:

I think the BEars will beat the Seahwaks in a very dull game.

Why not... I've enjoyed most of your predictions so far.

[Magpel]

Originally posted by steadyb:

Originally posted by Magpel:

I think the BEars will beat the Seahwaks in a very dull game.

Why not... I've enjoyed most of your predictions so far.

You mean the picks that won me the KC pickem pool? Yes, I can see why you might find those enjoyable and maybe even a little educational.

[Magpel]

Well, obviously, people respect the Pats. At the same time, it's clearly not the "same team." You know they'll scheme well on D, and if it is close, Brady's the man. So of course they have a good shot at the upset.

 

I'm looking for SD to be really crisp, get points on the board early, and to hit Brady hard when he does anything more, uh, meditative than his three step drop and fire routine.

 

That, though, nod nod wink wink, is why I said SD by 10 -- 'cause if it's anything less than 10, NE will win...

[Sergievsky]

Originally posted by steadyb:

Originally posted by Magpel:

I think the BEars will beat the Seahwaks in a very dull game.

Why not... I've enjoyed most of your predictions so far.

Yup, Bears over Seahawks, then Bulls over Lakers in the NBA Finals.

[MikeT156]

Quote by Griffinator:

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Vegas still has the Chargers favored by 5. What does that tell you?

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That tells me that more people are placing bets on the Patriots and the Chargers are the home team.

 

Mike T.

[Griffinator]

Originally posted by Magpel:

Well, obviously, people respect the Pats. At the same time, it's clearly not the "same team."

No?

 

Pats D in '06:

 

#6 overall ypg

#5 rush D

#2 scoring (Baltimore #1)

#5 in turnovers

#5 in sacks

#1 in pass TD's allowed

 

Oh - and they set a franchise low for points allowed this year.

[Magpel]

Originally posted by Griffinator:

No?

 

Pats D in '06:

 

#6 overall ypg

#5 rush D

#2 scoring (Baltimore #1)

#5 in turnovers

#5 in sacks

#1 in pass TD's allowed

 

Oh - and they set a franchise low for points allowed this year.

Fait accompli!

 

But I don't see it. Those are skewed defensive stats. Maimi, Buffalo, and the Jets are all very, very modest offensive teams, then throw in four games against the NFC North + Houston. All that amounts to a bit of a headstart on your defensive stat line! Hell, Denver's offense was miserable this year too! The only indosputably good offensive teams they played were Indy and Cincy. And Cincy hadn't really started to play yet, come to think of it, after the Kimo therapy on Carson's knee...

 

Those D stats are inflated.

[SilverDragonSoun]

The playoffs are a whole new season and in many cases stats don't transfer over into the playoffs. The KC/Indy game is a great example. IMO in the playoffs three things come into play; turnovers, offensive and defensive line play and execution. If you have these three things going for you, you'll win the majority of the games. Of course a little luck never hurts (Dallas/Seattle). My point is that the playoffs are a whole other season unto themselves. I will have my rooting interest but any of the teams winning or losing this weekend won't surprise me.

[MikeT156]

The thing is, New England continues to win with different players. A lot of the team that won their first SB are gone, but BB wins with who he has. 12-4 ain't to shabby. A few things I question-letting their kicker Adam Vinatieri go (Mr. Clutch). He kicked a number of game winning field goals in not so good conditions. How much is a clutch kicker worth $$$$?? Ask the Colts. I wonder if that will come back to bite them in the playoffs? Maybe the Colts needed him more than the Pats. They were willing to pay him, BB wasn't. Same thing for Deon Branch, but apparently, he was expendable.

 

 

Mike T.

[Magpel]

No doubt the Pats get the most out of what they've got. And when you compare mathups position by position, it's a pretty tough team that wins every head coach and QB matchup, but...

 

 

If NE were what they were, they would've beaten Miami and stayed in the running for that all important bye. That was a critical game for them, a playoff-level game. And they didn't show. A hot defense simply shut them down without so much as a flutter of resistance.

[Griffinator]

Originally posted by Magpel:

Those are skewed defensive stats.

No more so than Baltimore's - the #1 D overall - they played TB, Oakland, Cleveland twice, Buffalo, Denver, Pittsburgh twice...

 

Can't blame schedule for how a D performs. Same Texans team that managed only 7 against the Pats also hung 24 and 27 on the Colts. Same Denver team that managed only 30 total (both wins) against the Ravens and Pats also scored 20+ in 8 of their final 10. Either you take care of business or you don't.

[Griffinator]

Originally posted by MikeT156:

The thing is, New England continues to win with different players. A lot of the team that won their first SB are gone, but BB wins with who he has. 12-4 ain't to shabby. A few things I question-letting their kicker Adam Vinatieri go (Mr. Clutch). He kicked a number of game winning field goals in not so good conditions. How much is a clutch kicker worth $$$$?? Ask the Colts. I wonder if that will come back to bite them in the playoffs? Maybe the Colts needed him more than the Pats. They were willing to pay him, BB wasn't. Same thing for Deon Branch, but apparently, he was expendable.

 

 

Mike T.

As strange as it seems, it's that very philosophy (allowing people to walk when they want more than what the team has set for a value at their position) that keeps the Pats competitive every year, rather than the salary-cap hari-kari the Niners and Cowboys committed back in the day that kept them down for so long after their runs were over.

 

Belichick knows what he can afford at a given position without compromising their cap room and thus compromising their depth. Folks like Bruschi and Brady stuck around even though they could get more elsewhere, because they wanted to be part of a Pats winning tradition. The ones that left? Well, not many of them have really done anything for their new teams, with the exception of Vinny...

 

Deion Branch: 53/725/4 TD's, and a lot of kick returning. Lowest total he's had since his rookie year, not including '04, where he was out 7 games due to injury.

 

Damien Woody: (Lions) Started all 16 games in '04 and '05 for the Lions, but only 5 this year.

 

Willie McGinest: (Browns) Lowest tackle total since '01, when he was hurt, and lowest sack totals since '98.

 

David Givens: (Titans) Only played in 5 games, with a total of 8 catches for 104 yards, 0 TD's.

 

These are just a few examples of former Pats who left for big paychecks and had their careers pretty much tank.

[MikeT156]

Scott:

 

True enough. They let Ty Law go because it would have taken a 10m hit on the cap (in one year) to keep him. So much for back loaded contracts. McGinest was getting old and was expendable. I don't know about Givens, I haven't really followed him. Branch? His team is so-so, and he hasn't done too badly considering their injury problems.

 

I think they should have done what they could to keep Vinatieri. Look what happened to the Colts last year when their "accurate" kicker choked! Steelers went on to win the SB they thought was theres. (couldn't happen to a nicer team, except maybe Dallas).

 

A great kicker is the difference between going on or going home. I don't know how much he was asking, but even Brady said that the front office "wasn't taking care of their players".

 

Mike T.

[Magpel]

That's a good point about the Pats' philosophy and it is has been borne out over the years.

 

Vinatieri and Branch didn't make much as sense to me as McGinnest, Law, etc. While Branch's totals may have been down, methinks that has a bit to do with Seneca Wallace and a sputtering offense adjusting to the absence of Hutchinson among others. Branch is still a playmaker, and, Brady's brilliance aside, that's one thing the Pats could probably have used a bit more of this year.

 

As far as Ty Law goes, well, we he's still a magnet for Manning. Beyond that, he looks pretty washed up to me.

[GovernorSilver]

Wow, I didn't realize there'd be that much support for the Chargers here. Magpel, thanks for speaking up for my team.

 

The Patriots-Chargers Matchups as I see it:

 

Patriots OL vs. Chargers DL

 

Games are won and lost in the trenches. We're adept at applying pressure with just 4 or 5 rushers. We'll need to bring it against Brady. Our run defense has suffered from Castillo and Olshansky missing games. Having them both available should help, especially against the Dillon/Maroney ground attack.

 

Patriots DL vs. Chargers OL

 

This has been the best season I've seen for a Chargers OL since 1994 - big reason for LT's accomplishments and Rivers' surprising season. McNeill has been an impact addition. Patriots' DL looks much improved since our 2005 matchup. Our pass protection has excelled in non-blitz situations. It struggled against KC's blitz schemes, but otherwise has been fine in blitz pickup.

 

Patriots Receivers vs. Chargers Pass D

 

CB Jammer is having his best season ever as a Charger. FS McCree has brought much needed veteran savvy to a young secondary. Aside from being embarrased by Chad Johnson, the secondary has improved vs. WRs. Nickel CB Cromartie has made some rookie mistakes (eg. being burned by Chad) but has been solid overall. Pass coverage (including LBs) still struggles against TEs on occasion though, and Watson-Graham looks like a dangerous duo. Still, we have an excellent cover LB in Edwards and both Phillips and Merriman have improved in coverage.

 

Patriots Pass D vs. Chargers Receivers

 

Neither of our starting WRs (Parker, McCardell) are threats to outrace CBs on go routes. They are however, reliable route runners and catchers - adept at taking advantage of single coverage opportunities when Gates draws extra defenders. Gates is of course our #1 option in the passing game, except when LT lines up at WR. We like to use our #3 WR, Jackson, as a blocking specialist because of his size (6' 5", 241 lbs). He leads our WRs in TDs because of his downfield speed and ability to outjump/outmuscle smaller DBs. Patriots have a great CB in Samuel, but I don't know much about their other CB or safeties (other than Rodney). Philip needs to be especially careful throwing around Samuel's vicinity, since he tied with Bailey for #1 in INTs.

 

Special Teams

 

We like our kicker and punter. Coverage has been a trouble spot in previous seasons but improved in 2006. A blocked FG contributed to our loss in Baltimore. I don't know much about NE's special teams.

 

Coaching

 

Everyone knows about Belichick's successes and Marty's failures in the playoffs. Marty's made some changes in playoff preparation, like emphasizing technique over hard-hitting in practice. Marty has a winning head-to-head record against Belichick but I think that's regular season - don't know if they ever met in the playoffs before. Marty these days is more of a motivational, delegating presidential type - the strategists are Cam and Wade. Unless Marty tells Cam "I want to see I-formation, 3 yards, and a cloud of dust all day or you're fired".

 

Player Playoff Experience

 

No question about the Patriots here. The Chargers are a younger overall team, but have several players with previous playoff experience (McCardell, Oben, Godfrey, Hakim are all Superbowl veterans), plus the ones left from the team that got knocked off by the Jets in 2004 (LT, Gates, etc.).

[MidLifeCrisis]

Originally posted by GovernorSilver:

The Patriots-Chargers Matchups as I see it:

 

I was waiting for the

QB - Tom Brady vs Philip Rivers

entry and there was none

 

If this is going to a close game as the experts predict, it may come down to the QBs. I am going to have to put my $$ on the man with 3 rings instead of a rookie.

[GovernorSilver]

Originally posted by MidLifeCrisis:

Originally posted by GovernorSilver:

The Patriots-Chargers Matchups as I see it:

 

I was waiting for the

QB - Tom Brady vs Philip Rivers

entry and there was none

 

That's because QBs don't play each other in football.

 

Will Rivers be more easily confused by the opposing defense than Brady? Probably. Will Rivers be able to overcome that? Don't know.

 

Which QB will be given enough time by the opposing pass rush to do his job? Two unknowns in my book. Last year's Patriots could not manage a single sack against our OL. But apparently Seymour was hurt in that game. His being healthy should make their DL more of a challenge this time around. On the other hand, our OL also improved - they got a better OL coach and got Marcus McNeill.

[Griffinator]

Not a bad little dissertation there, Guv....

 

To fill in the blanks a bit...

 

The Pats secondary is, IMO, much deeper than SD's - James Sanders has come into his own at SS, under the tutelage of Harrison. Ellis Hobbs has come on solid opposite Samuel. Chad Scott is a great nickel corner. Everyone in the Pats secondary are above-average tacklers, which is what gives Samuel the ability to gamble on picks, and that's paid off handsomely.

 

No discussion of LB's? Come on - this is the definitive youth vs. experience comparison! Both teams employ a 3-4, which means the LB's are a crucial component of the DL discussion. Rosie Colvin had one of his best seasons since the broken hip - 8.5 sacks - on the right side, Banta-Cain has been a stalwart on the left. Bruschi and Vrabel on the inside have been stellar, as usual, despite their age. Run stuffers extraordinaire, and we all know both of them can cover backs with ease.

 

Oh, and not only is Seymour healthy, if you watched last week's game at all, you know that the highly touted Vince Wilfork has come fully into his own this year in the middle, and can two-gap with the best. Ty Warren has been a beast at left end (7.5 sacks), which was an unexpected surprise for all of us in Pats land. Doesn't hurt that all the attention is on Seymour. Jarvis Green has played exceptionally as a backup on both the left and right sides and in 4-down packages, with 7.5 sacks of his own.

 

As to the QB's, very simply, all Tom Brady needs is a good 3 seconds, and he'll pick any secondary apart. Quentin is a solid cover corner, although I've seen him make some really boneheaded plays this year. Florence on the other side is who the Chargers need to worry about. None of your LB's are particularly adept at coverage, and that's going to give McCree and Kiel fits when the Pats go 3 and 4-wide sets and send either the TE or RB into patterns.

 

In the trench battle, I noticed you mentioned absolutely no one on the Pats OL. The left side of this line has started every game this season, and you can see the cohesion as a result. Koppen, Mankins, and Light have been the anchor for this line, and have been outstanding the last four games at protecting Tom's blind side. Including the Jets, the last four D's (including Jax) we've faced have managed only 5 sacks total.

 

Oh - one more edge - Rivers has only seen one 3-4 D all year, and you lost that one - to the Ravens, who happen to be #1 ahead of NE at #2. Something to think about, no?

[SilverDragonSoun]

One thing that may have been overlooked is how the Patriots attack teams in the playoffs. Usually Belichick likes to take something away from the offense, in this case I think he will try and take away the Chargers running game, LT, and try to make Rivers beat them. I think it will be interesting to see if Pats do this, how do the Chargers respond. Can the Pats stop the running game? If yes can Rivers do enough to beat the Pats if the Chargers have trouble running the ball? I think these are some things to consider and watch to see how they unfold in the game.

[Magpel]

The only thing that concerns me about the Chargers is that their receivers don't scare anyone deep. They're skilled but not explosive. Defenses can draw up pretty close to the line of scrimmage. Still, LT and Gates are a handful, and, still, the Jets, who have the most compressed effective offensive range of any team in the NFL (sorry Chad), moved the ball fairly well against the Pats, and without a running game to speak of.

[Magpel]

The NYG gave Tom Coughlin a one year contract extension, so now he's on for the next two seasons. Yippee.

[meccajay]

Mags, I can only imagine how that news makes you feel..

 

I guess the silver lining is that the extention gives you the ability to go after your real target-Bill Cowher after next season. Of course you'll have to compete with half the league to get him...Kornheiser & Wilbon discussed this a little bit yesterday.

[MikeT156]

I'm surprised they gave him an extension at all. If the Giants really wanted a shot a Cowher, they would have let the contract as is.

 

 

Mike T.

[GovernorSilver]

Originally posted by Griffinator:

Not a bad little dissertation there, Guv....

 

To fill in the blanks a bit...

 

The Pats secondary is, IMO, much deeper than SD's - James Sanders has come into his own at SS, under the tutelage of Harrison. Ellis Hobbs has come on solid opposite Samuel. Chad Scott is a great nickel corner. Everyone in the Pats secondary are above-average tacklers, which is what gives Samuel the ability to gamble on picks, and that's paid off handsomely.

Thanks, Griff. Like I said, I don't know much about your secondary, so I appreciate the info. Samuel is the only guy I recognize from last year. I have no doubt Rivers will avoid throwing the ball anywhere near him if possible (unless Gates is there to fight him in a jump ball situation - that's one of the few times he beat Champ Bailey for a score, just a classic box-out, rebounding technique from hoops).

 

Our WRs rely on precise route running and Gates or LT (as a receiver) drawing away defenders for their playmaking opportunities. Neither starter is a Smith type who is a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. Big plays to our WRs are set up by stretches of safe, fairly predictable plays (runs, short passes). We try to bore you to sleep, then catch you sleeping. Doesn't work all the time, but that's our philosophy. For example, at Cincy, we ran a series of runs and short passes, then scored a long TD to Jackson when a Bengals DB bit on a pump fake to a short receiver.

 

No discussion of LB's? Come on - this is the definitive youth vs. experience comparison! Both teams employ a 3-4, which means the LB's are a crucial component of the DL discussion. Rosie Colvin had one of his best seasons since the broken hip - 8.5 sacks - on the right side, Banta-Cain has been a stalwart on the left. Bruschi and Vrabel on the inside have been stellar, as usual, despite their age. Run stuffers extraordinaire, and we all know both of them can cover backs with ease.

Your LBs were sort of another unknown to me, in that Bruschi did not play against us in 2005, Colvin was a backup, and I'm not familiar with Banta-Cain. Colvin must be to you guys what Shaun Phillips is to us - talented young OLB who finally got promoted this year after the vet OLB in front gave way. Losing Steve Foley to gunshot wounds hurt our depth, but Phillips has emerged as we had hoped. Losing our other last-year OLB starter Ben Leber, who was not a fit for the 3-4 anyway, did not hurt at all - he was replaced by Merriman.

 

Oh, and not only is Seymour healthy, if you watched last week's game at all, you know that the highly touted Vince Wilfork has come fully into his own this year in the middle, and can two-gap with the best. Ty Warren has been a beast at left end (7.5 sacks), which was an unexpected surprise for all of us in Pats land. Doesn't hurt that all the attention is on Seymour. Jarvis Green has played exceptionally as a backup on both the left and right sides and in 4-down packages, with 7.5 sacks of his own.

Yes, we definitely did not face your down linemen at full strength last year, so I'm looking forward to this trench matchup. Seymour was questionable for last year's game and I suspect even though he did play, he played hurt.

 

As to the QB's, very simply, all Tom Brady needs is a good 3 seconds, and he'll pick any secondary apart. Quentin is a solid cover corner, although I've seen him make some really boneheaded plays this year. Florence on the other side is who the Chargers need to worry about. None of your LB's are particularly adept at coverage, and that's going to give McCree and Kiel fits when the Pats go 3 and 4-wide sets and send either the TE or RB into patterns.

All fair statements. Trust me, I always hold my breath when opposing QBs throw in Florence's direction. Florence is the more spectacular athlete of our CB tandem, but he's also more of a gambler. Earlier in the season, he struggled with tackling but seems to have cleaned up his technique of late. Jammer is perceived as a PI machine but has garnered only 3 flags this year, which for him is a VAST improvement. Against your multi-WR sets, Florence moves inside to play slot WRs and Cromartie takes the outside. Cromartie has the most freakish upside of the three CBs but is also the greenest of a young group. I expect Brady to pick on Cromartie when available or Florence. Our SS Kiel has been a liability in pass coverage and is a reason TEs and RBs have made big plays over the middle against us. Phillips and Merriman were terrible in pass coverage last year, struggled some early this year (Merriman was dragged by Heap into the end zone for the winning Ravens TD), but have improved. Basically, your TEs will probably try to attack Kiel or backup MLB Cooper, who frequently spells the crafty vet Godfrey, but not really Edwards as he is our INT machine among the LBs.

 

In the trench battle, I noticed you mentioned absolutely no one on the Pats OL. The left side of this line has started every game this season, and you can see the cohesion as a result. Koppen, Mankins, and Light have been the anchor for this line, and have been outstanding the last four games at protecting Tom's blind side. Including the Jets, the last four D's (including Jax) we've faced have managed only 5 sacks total.

Sounds like it'll be a good battle between your OL and our front 7 then. Our OL similarly improved from having the same 4 guys together over 2 seasons. The one new guy is of course McNeill, who surprised everyone with his work ethic and learning as quickly as he did.

 

Oh - one more edge - Rivers has only seen one 3-4 D all year, and you lost that one - to the Ravens, who happen to be #1 ahead of NE at #2. Something to think about, no?

Not too worried, as the Chargers offense practices against a 3-4 defense (ours) on a weekly basis. I'm more concerned about him being confused and frustrated by the schemes you guys will cook up. The confusion and frustration is inevitable - the question is whether he can bounce back from it once it does happen.

 

Once again, thanks for the info! Did I mention I'm excited about this upcoming game?

[meccajay]

Originally posted by MikeT156:

I'm surprised they gave him an extension at all. If the Giants really wanted a shot a Cowher, they would have let the contract as is.

Yes, they mentioned that as well on PTI yesterday..

 

They concluded that the Giants ownership really doesn't like lame-duck years for there coaches, so they extend. This way they can keep ole grouchy pants if something miraculous happens, and only have to eat 1 years salary if they can land Cowher or another coach.