Official CFB 2023 Thread

[MAJUSCULE]

Recruiting is already getting to the nitty-gritty and fall camp starts soon. Games in just over a month. Figured Netflix dropping this (NSFW) trailer was as good a time as any to start this thread. (Jake Paul, Barry Bonds, and Marion Jones notwithstanding.)

 

 

If you haven't seen the Manti Te'o doc in the same Untold series, it's great. I'm looking forward to both of these, but especially the Swamp Kings, of course.

 

Anyway, as per usual, Florida has one of the toughest schedules in the country this year, including starting on the road to a top-10 or 15 team in Utah, who'll be hungry for revenge after a close game last year. Vegas has our over/under at 5.5 wins... fans are confident we'll get past that and the players seem to have a chip on their shoulder about the doubters, but it'll still be a tough row to hoe with a new QB and continued roster turnover. We need our new DC to have an impact and young players at WR, TE, LB, and S to make a difference. I do believe Billy Napier can get it done, but patience often runs out a lot quicker than it's promised. Thankfully, he's killing it on the recruiting trail, and the 2024 guys seem to know that it could be a rough season on the field. They understand that they're part of the rebuild and that it doesn't get done in a day when it's being done the right way. (And it's always fun flipping a recruit from FSU, like we did last night 😎)

 

I see that SD State and Hawai'i are both playing Week 0, August 26th. Interesting matchups for both teams, Ohio and Vandy...

 

Otherwise, the PAC-12 still hasn't announced their new media deal... I'll let those of you who are better informed than I am dissect that but it doesn't look good. The ACC is also on thin ice with some of the bigger name members wanting out, it seems.

 

Hot takes? Predictions? Lamentations?

[GovernorSilver]

I'm still cringing from San Diego State's decision to send a letter to the Mountain West Conference which essentially stated "we want to break up with you, but we're not sure when our new conference will be ready to invite us yet, so you could you not charge us a $34 million exit fee".  SDSU was doing good by keeping quiet publicly about being a PAC-12 expansion target... until that letter was sent and the CFB fandom got to laugh at all parties involved.   MWC claimed that letter was an official letter of withdrawal from the conference while SDSU disputed that.   They withheld $6 million owed to SDSU, and claimed SDSU owes about $10 million more for the exit fee.  After all that drama, they decided not to kick out SDSU.

 

PAC-12 was being ridiculed for allegedly considering ION and CW channels as potential partners in a new media deal.  Then the ACC announces its new media deal with CW.

 

PAC-12  wants a new media deal before it will consider formally inviting schools to replace USC and UCLA but at the same time it doesn't seem to be in a hurry to get that new deal.  They are not expected to announce on a new deal on their July 21 media day.  There's rumor/speculation going around they might go with 10 schools for at least one season before expanding back to 12 because of the 12-school CFB playoff plan.  Colorado is rumored to be planning a return to the Big 12 but that too does not seem to be a a concern for PAC-12 leadership.

 

The circus seems to have overshadowed any talk of how SDSU's upcoming season will look.  The 2022 offense was awful, with the opening day starter proving to be bust, one backup being injured for the season after just a couple of plays, and another backup sent to the portal after he was caught not knowing the playbook.  The OC/QB coach was fired, former Aztec QB Ryan Lindley was hired as emergency QB coach, and safety Jalen Mayden was asked to switch back to QB - in the middle of the season.  The 2023 offense should be improved with Mayden having a full offseason to work with Lindley, who is now the OC.    Mayden lacks an elite arm, but he stabilized the QB position in 2022 by dramatically cutting down on turnovers, compared to preceding starting QBs, and making clutch plays with his wheels as well as his arm.    I'm sure they'll be expected to finish behind Fresno State and Boise State again.

[Joe Muscara]

All I have is GO TERPS!  otherwise, my attention to CFB is cursory.  

[GovernorSilver]

The University of Colorado Board of Regents will vote on a move back to the Big 12 Conference on Thursday

 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38076854/colorado-discussing-move-pac-12-big-12-sources-say

 

Colorado, Utah, and the Arizona schools are the 4 schools that have been rumored to be courted by the Big 12.  Out of the 4, Colorado has been the most disgruntled with the PAC.  Not surprised this would be first of the 4 to lose patience with PAC's continuing failure to get a new media deal.  The PAC-12 commish has had more than a full year now, since the news of USC and UCLA's departure broke, to secure that new media deal.  From the outside, he does not appear to have accomplished anything after all this time.  For all we know, he may have already concluded this was a hopeless cause and just spent his time playing golf and enjoying cocktails in Palm Springs.

 

Earlier this week, Oregon was rumored to be one of 2 PAC-12 schools in favor of keeping the PAC at 10 schools after USC and UCLA join the B1G.  Will Oregon and the other school still insist on a 9-school PAC?

 

On the B1G side, Ohio State was said to be opposed to adding Oregon and Washington.  Even though they're set to make $70+ mill a year as a B1G member, they don't want that number to drop even one penny so that Oregon and Washington can also get pieces of that sweet B1G pie.   So the PAC can thank Ohio State's self interests for Oregon and Washington staying put, for the time being.

 

That all said, there does not seem to be any rule/regulation that says Oregon State and Washington State MUST dissolve the PAC if everybody else leaves.  I read somewhere though that a PAC reduced to just Oregon State and Washington State plus 10 schools from current G5 conferences... would still make more money than a Mountain West with those "unwanted PAC schools" added.  

[GovernorSilver]

20 hours ago, GovernorSilver said:

The University of Colorado Board of Regents will vote on a move back to the Big 12 Conference on Thursday

 

 

They voted to return to the Big 12

 

I guess PAC-12 Media Day last Friday was supposed to be an all day event.  The commish had his press conference in the morning, then other stuff was supposed to happen.  The Colorado athletic director abruptly left after the press conference, which was the first sign Colorado was displeased with the lack of progress on the new media deal.

 

Next, let's see if the PAC is finally spurred to decisive action, or if they're going to continue to do nothing but twiddle their thumbs.

[surfergirl]

It should be an easy move for Colorado. They can be irrelevant in the Big12 just as easy as they were in the Pac12.

[bill5]

Am I missing something? Shouldn't this be the 2023 thread?

[o0Ampy0o]

17 minutes ago, bill5 said:

Am I missing something? Shouldn't this be the 2023 thread?

 

Depends on whether or not they overlooked emailing you a link to download the time travel app.

[GovernorSilver]

the PAC needs to give up on the dream of a media deal that pays as much as the Big 12's $31 mill per school payout.   Not happening without USC and UCLA.

 

Just take any offer they can get that gets them a 50-50 split between broadcast TV and streaming.   It'll probably be $20 mill per school.  Get the deal before Arizona also bolts for the Big 12.  

 

The commish's statement that they longer they wait, the better the offers sure backfired.  

[GovernorSilver]

Prime Time firing back at Dan Lanning while the PAC-12 appears to crumble.  

 

Lanning said the same thing that we're all thinking about Colorado.  But you know Prime Time will always have an entertaining comeback

 

"The same teams who were talking about us, right?" Sanders asked sarcastically while clapping, per Weber. "Oh Lord, that was good."

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10085137-deion-sanders-on-conference-realignment-amid-pac-12-exits-all-this-is-about-money

 

 

[surfergirl]

It appears that Oregon and Washington going to the BIG10 is a done deal. Utah and the AZ schools will assuredly leave for the BIG12. Welcome to the Mountain West Oregon St, Washington St, Cal and Stanford.

 

[GovernorSilver]

Current PAC commish George Kliavkoff is as good as fired now.  Too bad it wasn't the reverse - Big 12 hiring him, PAC hiring Brett Yomark.   One of them showed a much more effective leadership style while the other got nothing done.

 

Read some rumors that Stanford will also leave by going independent, because they won't be able to stomach being in the same conference as one or more CSU schools.   🤣

 

Mountain West pays about $4 million per school per year.

 

I would not be surprised to see Oregon State, Washington State, and Cal hanging on to the PAC.  If they can quickly invite 8-9 G5 schools (depending on Stanford going independent or not), get a new grant of rights signed, they may be able to get a media deal that pays better per school than the MW's $4 million.  But they might have to fire Kliavkoff and appoint an emergency commish to get the media deal done - no telling what George might do to screw up even worse.

 

I guess another possibility is, indeed, MW taking in 3-4 PAC schools then rebranding itself as the new PAC.   

 

Current MW commish Gloria Nevarez would just slide into the leadership role for the new combined MW-PAC conference.  I could see her immediately renegotiating the media deal to get something more than $4 million per school per year.

 

If I were the PAC-4, I'd try the first route first, at least to see if it's indeed a better financial situation for the PAC-4 vs. merging with the MW.

[Geoff Grace]

 

 

Best,

 

Geoff

[GovernorSilver]

 

[GovernorSilver]

ACC ADs meeting to discuss potentially adding Cal and Stanford:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/california-stanford-interested-in-acc-conference-set-to-evaluate-viability-of-adding-pac-12-teams/

 

Looks like it was Cal and Stanford who initiated contact.  Seems like a long shot with Florida State already complaining about their cut of ACC revenue - don't see them being onboard with their share dropping further by adding the 2 schools. 

 

Can't blame either California school for trying, though.

[surfergirl]

I don't think The BIG10 is going to let The ACC get a foothold in the California recruiting market. I think this will move the BIG10 to take in Stanford and California in order to block the ACC. 

[GovernorSilver]

yes, that what some of the speculation out there says - a calculated move by the 2 schools to get the B1G to add them sooner rather than later.    

 

in related news, one of the current PAC-12 presidents allegedly begged the Big 12 to "take us all.. excepted Oregon State and Washington State"

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10085372-report-pac-12-pres-asked-if-big-12-could-take-all-of-us-except-oregon-st-wsu

 

If the PAC-4 becomes the PAC-2 (Beavers and Cougars), the PAC-2 should go ahead fire Kliavkoff, merge with the MW, and let the MW take over the PAC brand/trademark and logo.

[GovernorSilver]

Looks like the ACC's potential invites to Cal and Stanford are on life support - met on Monday to set up a Wednesday meeting, then on Wednesday voted to not vote on inviting the 2 schools:

https://apnews.com/article/acc-pac12-washington-state-conference-realignment-3dbdfd282f532c2b0951fb9ab2647b17

 

Interview with MWC commish Gloria Nevarez, recorded hours before the ACC Wed. night meeting - possible scenarios for merging with the PAC-4 are more complicated than they appear on the surface.  Nevarez mentions that a merger could involve taking on liabilities as well as assets - case in point the PAC-12's $50 million debt to Comcast.    Interesting to see if the MW leadership would be willing to take on debts like that in exchange for gaining the PAC-12 brand, NCAA tournament units,  etc.

 

 

[ProfD]

Amazing the amount of money generated and number of non-athletic jobs created by college football.

 

Just to think...football started as a sandlot game.  It has become a multibillion dollar industry.

 

Back to the regularly scheduled programming...😁😎

 

[GovernorSilver]

SMU allegedly offered to take ZERO dollars per year in revenue, for the first 5-7 years of membership, if the ACC were to invite SMU.   SMU must have pockets as deep as the Marianas Trench (boosters!)... goot me thinking about the old SMU that was so corrupt, it earned the infamous Death Penalty and helped destroy the once dominant Southwest Conference.

 

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/notre-dame-pushing-acc-to-add-stanford-cal-smu-join-without-revenue?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=BrettMcMurphy

[GovernorSilver]

Interview with Mitch Vingle, longtime reporter on West Virginia sports, including Oliver Luck (ex-WV AD and yes, Andrew's dad), discussing Oliver Luck who was reportedly hired as a consultant by the PAC-4.  One new thing I learned today was Luck's actual clients are Oregon State and Washington State.   Neither Stanford nor Cal are clients.  

 

Also, Vingle stated the report of Luck securing a new deal for a merged PAC-12/AAC is plain false.  Not that it could never happen.  It's just that Luck was just hired a couple of days ago - he just wouldn't have had enough time to make a deal like that.

 

 

[GovernorSilver]

Talk about ACC considering Cal, Stanford, and SMU are still alive.  The 4 "no vote" ACC schools opposed to adding them are FSU, Clemson, NC and NC State.

 

The "money pool" that would be created by the 3 schools getting paid next to nothing as new ACC members is thought by ESPN and other CFB reporters to be enough to flip one of the 4 no voters.

 

But the sentiment inside the ACC seems to be the same as before.  "What's in it for us?" .  The 4 holdouts are all who are keeping Oregon State and Wazzou's hopes alive of rebuilding the PAC-12.  Once Cal and Stanford are out the door, the PAC-2 has no hope of landing a media deal - and they can't invite G5 schools without that deal, unlike in 2022 when the PAC-10 had a $30 mill per school offer from ESPN... and turned it down... 

 

 

 

[GovernorSilver]

So USC is supposed to win the PAC-12 in its final season?   

 

Not with that defense.    Surprisingly porous against San Jose State - upcoming opponents Notre Dame, Washington, and Oregon will have their way with that.

[GovernorSilver]

The UNC tragedy (professor shot by grad student) is delaying any decision making by the ACC on adding Stanford, Cal, and SMU.  

 

In more upbeat news, Florida at Utah should be good.   No Richardson for Florida.   Probably no Rising for Utah.  Surprised OP has been so quiet.   Maybe he's working on switching allegiance to the Georgia Bulldogs, effective 2024 season.

 

Fun debate between the Locked on Utah guy and Locked on Florida guy, moderated by Locked on Pac-12

 

 

[GovernorSilver]

So far the Utah-Florida rematch is going a lot like last December's Vegas Bowl, in which Oregon State crushed Florida 30-3.   It's Q3 and  Utah leads 24-3.

 

I've never seen a team get penalized for 2 players wearing the same number before.  Neither Meyer nor Spurrier would have put up with that.

[GovernorSilver]

ACC finally voted to add Stanford, Cal and SMU.  The 4 holdouts were UNC, NC State, Florida State, and Clemson.   NC State's vote was the one that flipped.   2 of the 3 were so desperate to join a power conference that they offered to take little to no money out of ACC's media payouts for 5 years or something..   Cal is actually the most hard up for cash, so are they counting on donations from Stanford until  they start getting ACC media payouts?.  I guess the "they're coming in for practically free, and thus the rest of the ACC gets this much more dollars" argument was enough to sway NC State.

 

This shrinks the PAC-4 to the PAC-2 of Oregon State and Washington State.  Both wanted to reload the PAC by poaching G5 schools, but they need a media partner to make this happen, and it's going be really hard to land that media partner without Stanford and Cal.    Next we see if they'll go for a reverse merger with the Mountain West or simply join it as new members.  

 

In a reverse merger, the MWC would take on the PAC-12 brand, PAC-12 Network infrastructure, NCAA Tournament units, financial assets and whatever other assets belong to the PAC-12 as a legal entity... as well as the liabilities like the $50 million debt to Comcast.   I'm guessing the PAC-2 will push in this direction.  Oregon State's president and AD have repeatedly cited the PAC-12's 100 year history and the desire to keep all their sports, like men's soccer which is not sponsored by the MWC.

 

If OSU and WSU, as the PAC-2, decide to dissolve the PAC-12 as a legal entity, the assets would be divided equally among the 12 former members.  If they keep the PAC-12 going, they keep all the assets between the 2 of them until something like a merger happens.   I could see both being motivated to maintain the PAC-12 just to keep the assets from going to the 10 former members.  A one-finger salute, if you will.

 

The AAC just announced they will no longer expand westward after losing SMU.  That leaves the MWC as the only FBS conference courting the PAC-2.  The MWC commish already visited Wazzou to make her pitch and will be visiting OSU.    Presumably AAC commish Aresco is cancelling his trips to those schools.

 

[surfergirl]

Stanford is only a 3pt favorite over Hawaii tonight. Think we might go to the game. 

The Mountain West should tell WSU and OSU their only choice is to join them, the Mountain West hold all the cards. 

[GovernorSilver]

The Locked On Pac-12 guy says Stanford is the worst team in the PAC this year.  Go Rainbow Warriors!

 

Gloria Nevarez said before that the MWC is open to a merger with the PAC remainders... but it's complicated.  They'd have to go over everything with a fine tooth comb.  The merger/reverse merger idea might not get an automatic yes vote from all MWC members.   

 

I'd like to see them pull of the merger though and move the PAC-12 assets over to the MWC.  It would send the message to the 10 ex-members "You dumped this for other conferences, so you ain't getting a single penny of this"

[bill5]

PAC 12 RIP. Wow this sucks. NCAAF conferences are a joke now. 

[GovernorSilver]

Travis Hunter is the real deal!   He was the 5-star recruit that turned down scholarship offers from top SEC schools, Michigan, Clemson, etc. to play for Deion Sanders at Jackson State.  Followed Coach Prime to Colorado.  Spectacular interception while playing cornerback, and some big plays as WR.     

 

Prime has Colorado playing with surprising cohesion for a team that has over 60 players who never played together before.   They've got an entertaining shootout going with TCU.    

 

Shedeur Sanders passing over 500 yds.    When they play USC in a few weeks, they might not break the 222-0 Georgia Tech-Cumberland record for highest scoring game but I think they could crack 100 combined.