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The 'shocking' impact of COVID-19: Americans, young and old, have lost 2.5 million years of life, Harvard researcher says

Full article:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...ears-harvard-stephen-elledge/5994363002/



The 'shocking' impact of COVID-19: Americans, young and old, have lost 2.5 million years of life, Harvard researcher says
Karen Weintraub
USA TODAY

Stephen Elledge was upset.

A world-class molecular biologist and geneticist, Elledge felt like people were ignoring an important aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic. They kept talking about how the only people dying were old and would have died soon anyway.

So Elledge, a scientist to his bones, decided to run some numbers.

Elledge calculated life expectancy for more than 200,000 Americans who have died of COVID-19 and made two surprising findings: COVID-19 has cost Americans 2.5 million years of life – about as much as from six months of cancer deaths. And roughly half that loss has come from people who died in middle age, not their waning years.
Harvard geneticist Stephen Elledge was upset by how casually people dismissed those who died of COVID-19

“It was really pretty shocking,” said Elledge, the Gregor Mendel Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School and Brigham and Women’s Hospital, both in Boston. “The younger half of that population are losing just as much life as the old people. And they really need to know it.”


Notes


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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
Only now it becomes political to believe a pundit, priest, propagandist or politician who says it's nothing but a hoax and exercise your fundamental so called freedom to say "the rules of a civilized society should not apply to me personally". These same propagandists tell you "It's under control" while record cases are soaring off the charts, and yet the willing still believe the propagandists.

Yes we all have to use our own risk vs. gain and self-preservation instincts to guide us. Obviously we're doing something wrong here in the USA because with 4% of the world's population, we have 33% of the world's COVID-19 cases.

Covid-19 is a symptom, not the disease.

Being a pretty old guy, I remember when the USA was a more cohesive society. Even with racism and sexual discrimination, I still maintain there was more of a sense among everyone about what it meant to be part of a society. And for those who had not been able to integrate fully into society for whatever reason, there was faith that this could be rectified over time with a combination of work, persuasion, and patience.

Today, I often get the sense that people don't want to work, persuasion has been replaced by trying to wear others down until they give in, and patience is a foreign concept to those who expect instant gratification.

Covid-19 is a wakeup call as much as it is a pandemic. Are we a society that can tackle a problem that affects everyone as a unified group of people sharing a common goal? It seems the answer is "no."

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[Edited to remove political content]

I too remember a more unified USA...for the majority, even with our differences and our social problems, life in the USA was much more civil. I don't think our civility will ever return -- plus I think the horse is out of the barn and there is no way to get it back in.

Last edited by Anderton; 10/22/20 06:51 PM.

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There are about 300,000 excess deaths not attributed to COVID so far this year. Read into that what one will.

I'm pretty tired of coddling the anti-science crowd. When this is over people will start looking back at this time and fingers will start pointing, at those that made this situation worse. There will be lawsuits, although at this point criminal reckless endangerment should be invoked. A lot of people will start backtracking about their stance they had: these jerks are killing people, wrecking people's lives, wrecking the U.S.. Those of us who have had family and friends die or left with life long complications will remember.


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Sad to see right wing "speculative anecdotal science" propaganda on here. It's allowed on Facebook and Twitter, and it's been like a 100 watt Marshall with JBLs for the inane. 25 years ago the same people would be listening to our doctors and scientists and things wouldn't be as bad in the U.S. as they are.

Last edited by Chip McDonald; 10/26/20 12:48 AM.

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Originally Posted by Chip McDonald
There are about 300,000 excess deaths not attributed to COVID so far this year.

COVID-19 is the most rational and likely explanation for a healthy percentage of that number. If you don't believe it's mostly COVID-19, try to explain why this year has been so different than any other. Why wouldn’t a new disease that kills people not be the cause?

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I think he meant deaths that were not attributed to the "official" count of COVID deaths. From Stat News:

To be exact, the researchers reported that 299,028 more people died from Jan. 26 to Oct. 3 this year than on average during the same stretch from 2015 to 2019. Excess deaths also occurred at higher rates among Latinx, Asian, American Indian, and Black people than among white people, mirroring the disparities in official U.S. Covid-19 death counts.

Most likely, the excess deaths account for some otherwise untallied Covid-19 deaths — those who may have died without being tested or who died at home and whose deaths were not counted as caused by the coronavirus. But the 300,000 number probably also includes people who died because they were scared to seek out medical care because of the pandemic or had their care interrupted, and because of other causes. One limitation of the study, the researchers noted, was that the U.S. population is growing and getting older, so more deaths might have occurred in 2020 versus recent years without a pandemic, making a direct comparison harder.


There's a report from the CDC that goes into this in more depth. Interestingly, the biggest increase was in the 25-44 years old age group.

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More than a quarter of a million dead people and the anti-science crowd still denies it.

And they use the science based Internet and Computer technology to vocalize their anti-science beliefs.


Notes

Last edited by Notes_Norton; 10/26/20 02:55 PM.

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Unfortunately the computer and social media are using them (us). Even a Google search customizes the results of a search so that when we all input the same search we do not receive the same answers. It makes it easy for the proliferation of conspiracy theories when all you see keeps supporting it.

If you haven’t seen “The Social dilemma” on Netflix you really should take a look and investigate.

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Originally Posted by dboomer
Unfortunately the computer and social media are using them (us). Even a Google search customizes the results of a search so that when we all input the same search we do not receive the same answers. It makes it easy for the proliferation of conspiracy theories when all you see keeps supporting it.

If you haven’t seen “The Social dilemma” on Netflix you really should take a look and investigate.

Amen. I do try to screw up the algorithm as much as possible, e.g., clicking on ultra-right and ultra-left news sources and stories. So I get a pretty good balance of wrong stuff from both sides smile

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Originally Posted by dboomer
Originally Posted by Chip McDonald
There are about 300,000 excess deaths not attributed to COVID so far this year.

COVID-19 is the most rational and likely explanation for a healthy percentage of that number. If you don't believe it's mostly COVID-19, try to explain why this year has been so different than any other. Why wouldn’t a new disease that kills people not be the cause?


......... what has happened to reading comprehension in the 21st century? How could I write "these jerks are killing people, wrecking people's lives, wrecking the U.S.. Those of us who have had family and friends die or left with life long complications will remember." and be implying the 300,000 excess deaths were not from COVID????

YES, I believe the excess deaths were from COVID. My OWN MOTHER was probably one of those 300,000.


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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
More than a quarter of a million dead people and the anti-science crowd still denies it.

And they use the science based Internet and Computer technology to vocalize their anti-science beliefs.


Notes

Well... when I closed my (guitar lessons) office back in March I immediately lost at least 10+ customers due to "I can't do that computer online video stuff". Of those 10 about half have been ironically texting me asking when I'm going to open my office back up (as if SARS-COVID2 somehow has magically gone away?), and the rest left with various comments ranging from "you don't believe that hoax, do you?" to "you're being a pussy being afraid of it!".

Which again leads me to say, the anti-science anti-mask brigade are a demographic that has been weaponized by the right, via triggering a dopamine fix when they would otherwise have an inferiority complex conundrum. "You don't listen to those DUMB commie libs, do you?", "those libs think they're so smart!", etc. - the anti-mask brigade are all reveling in how *smart* they are for not *buying into the "hoax".

In the face of science. Something that would otherwise intimidate them. The emotional power of not feeling mentally weak in this situation has been co-opted. Part of the strategy is the willingness for this demographic to effectively limit their computer use to literally just Facebook. They're not going to use Google to go find actual research abstracts, read actual papers or follow up who is writing what, what the agency represents. Weaponized dumb.


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Originally Posted by Chip McDonald
Originally Posted by dboomer
Originally Posted by Chip McDonald
There are about 300,000 excess deaths not attributed to COVID so far this year.

COVID-19 is the most rational and likely explanation for a healthy percentage of that number. If you don't believe it's mostly COVID-19, try to explain why this year has been so different than any other. Why wouldn’t a new disease that kills people not be the cause?


......... what has happened to reading comprehension in the 21st century? How could I write "these jerks are killing people, wrecking people's lives, wrecking the U.S.. Those of us who have had family and friends die or left with life long complications will remember." and be implying the 300,000 excess deaths were not from COVID????

YES, I believe the excess deaths were from COVID. My OWN MOTHER was probably one of those 300,000.

YES, I was agreeing with you just for those that might have believed otherwise. Sorry to hear about your Mother. I lost mine to complications from Covid too.

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Originally Posted by dboomer
Unfortunately the computer and social media are using them (us). Even a Google search customizes the results of a search so that when we all input the same search we do not receive the same answers. It makes it easy for the proliferation of conspiracy theories when all you see keeps supporting it.

If you haven’t seen “The Social dilemma” on Netflix you really should take a look and investigate.
When I used to use Google, this happened:

I was searching for musicians ear monitors and active ear plugs. I ended up getting Etymotic active ear plugs which are transparent at low volume levels and suppress the volume to protect my ears when the music is playing. Between songs I cold hear what the audience members were playing at at our no more than 100dba volume on stage I got no more than 85db entering my middle ear.

They use hearing aid batteries. They are zinc-air batteries, and once you pull a sticker off a hole in the anode, they continue to discharge even if you aren't using them. I'd go through a pair of batteries a week.

I did a lot of google searches to find the best price. Finally found them for about 22 cents each. But I started getting ads for hearing aids, adult diapers, walk-in-showers, and all kinds of geriatric supplies. I have nothing against those useful products, but I don't see myself in that group.

So I tried to psych-out Google. I searched for a new saxophone. That didn't work. So I tried a new bikini for my wife, and that didn't work either. The geriatric ads lasted about 6 months and slowly trickled off.

Now I use Start Page https://www.startpage.com/sp/search for my searches. They are based in Europe, display google results which they pay for, but Start Page does not record your ISP or any other personal data. They even offer anonymous viewing of pages, but I don't use that because it's slow.

I can't watch Social Dilemma because I turned off the TV in the mid 1980s. No cable, no antenna, no digital converter, and in this part of the country, that means no TV.

I worked on Cruise Ships from 1985 to 1990 before cruise ships had TV. I got used to doing things. When I got home I turned the cable back on and I found I wasn't watching it. I got so used to dong things that when I watched I'd just fidget. The last two TV shows I watched were Johnny Carson's last Tonight Show and Jay Leno's first Tonight Show, and I had to go to my mother-in-law's house to watch them.

Other than a few targeted music forums like this, I don't do any anti-social media. When I found out that Facebook was using likes and dislikes, plus had bots reading posts and private communications from its members and using that information to decide what fraudulent 'news' items to feed people in order to rig a US Election, I wiped my data and got off. As a patriot, these are not my values, and by letting them sell my data for profit, I would be aiding and abetting the eroding of our supposedly sacred election system. I couldn't hold my head up and remain there, so even though it might hurt my duo business, my conscience won.

I feel the same way about re-electing anyone who lied for 6 weeks about COVID in order to protect their fortunes telling people it's a hoax (or whatever) and allowing hundreds of thousands to die for their personal profits. My conscience won't let me be an accomplice to that kind of manslaughter.

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I have switched to using duckduckgo as my primary search engine, and to using Waves for driving directions instead of Google Maps. I don't want to give google information for cases where I have another choice that works.

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Originally Posted by harmonizer
I have switched to using duckduckgo as my primary search engine, and to using Waves for driving directions instead of Google Maps. I don't want to give google information for cases where I have another choice that works.

Another duckduckgo user here: it's search effectiveness I find sucks compared to Google but I'm happy enough with the trade-off


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I've actually been finding Bing to be pretty good. It steers less towards ads than Google. So far it seems if I'm looking for a really esoteric long tail search, Google is better. For everything else, Bing gets me there faster and with fewer distractions.

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Originally Posted by nursers
Originally Posted by harmonizer
I have switched to using duckduckgo as my primary search engine, and to using Waves for driving directions instead of Google Maps. I don't want to give google information for cases where I have another choice that works.

Another duckduckgo user here: it's search effectiveness I find sucks compared to Google but I'm happy enough with the trade-off
Try StartPage. It's as private as the Duck but uses google for results. StartPage acts as a shield between you and Google, and it doesn't collect your IP or any other info from you.

https://www.startpage.com/en/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Startpage.com

Notes


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This thread is entering its 8th month. When I titled it "Ok, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away, Now What?" I didn't mean "isn't going away, period."

The live sound people are really, really hurting. Meanwhile the etailers are doing great.

i think this whole issue underscores a fundamental problem in our industry: there's no organization for live sound professionals. Suppose I was Bill Gates and I said "I love live music, I have a spare $100,000,000, and I'd like to have it distributed to all live sound professionals to keep them going during these tough times."

I don't think there's any mechanism by which that could happen. If there was, perhaps companies that are doing gangbusters wouldn't mind putting in some bucks to help take up some of the slack. Sure, live sound engineers can deliver for Uber Eats or GrubHub or whatever, but I would think even a little bit of relief would help, and this would give them a way to apply for relief.

There is the "Save Our Stages" thing that was discussed earlier, but that's still kind of amorphous at this point and it seems more oriented toward venues than live sound engineers per se.

One of the issues with live sound engineers is they often tend to be older, and more at risk in a public environment with rising infections. Also they've become so entwined with a particular system, it's not like most of them can become web gurus overnight and start doing web design (which is a pretty crowded field anyway).

As I said in the OP, "Unfortunately, sometimes in life there is no good solution, only less bad ones. In this case, any solution is basically a choice among various worst-case scenarios." I had no idea how true that would turn out to be..

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Some of the communicable disease experts saw a situation like this coming, but they didn't know exactly when or how.

I don't think many of us or anybody in our industry saw this coming. And when it first came I had no idea how long it would last. I figured I'd be working by Halloween, then as the months went on and I watched developments, it became obvious I'm in for a long haul before I get back to work.

Our local symphony is begging for money to keep the musicians afloat, but I can't help because I'm in the same boat. I don't know when I'll get back to work, so I have to draw from my savings as slowly as possible.

As I said before, I've always lived below my means. The mortgage and cars are paid off, I have savings, and zero debt. I'm luckier than most.

But I haven't gigged since March 17. If I get an offer and it's indoors, to tell you the truth, as much as I want to gig, I don't know if I'll take it.There is no Ctrl-Z or Cmd+Z if I get COVID. But back in 1985 I targeted the very big retirement audience here in Florida, so there isn't much chance of my market wanting to expose themselves to it either.

A friend of mine worked a gig when our governor opened bars again, and two of the guys in the band came down with COVID. So far my buddy is OK.

Yes catastrophic things happen, and there are winners and losers. That's why there are no Trilobites, Saber Toothed Tigers or huge dinosaurs roaming around our planet anymore. The live music industry got hit hard, restaurants and bars are bleeding, Uber and Lyft cars are parked, gyms and yoga studios are empty, and so on. With millions unemployed, we can't all deliver groceries or hot meals. That industry doesn't need all of us.

Like most of us, I'm hoping for that vaccine. If one can be made to target COVID, we'll probably get it. The best experts all over the world are working on it. But that's an IF, we never found one for another Corona Virus, the common cold.

If a vaccine comes around, I suspect people who are starving for live entertainment will be back for us.

So Craig, you were right. The Corona Virus isn't going away, and we have to learn how to deal with it.

Notes


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I found this in my inbox today, it was new to me so I thought I'd share it.

Reliable? I think so.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54648684?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

JohnG.


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IMO The BBC is pretty reliable. Slightly on the conservative side of center but it has an extremely good truth vs lies rating.

In a recent talk with my S-I-L she said for days she thought she was going to die. There were times when the pain was so unbearable that she though to herself, "If I'm going to die, please do it soon."

Wear your mask, and protect yourself. Reduce your chances of losing COVID roulette.


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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
IMO The BBC is pretty reliable. Slightly on the conservative side of center but it has an extremely good truth vs lies rating.
The BBC does not lean right by any stretch of the imagination.

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Originally Posted by PrairieGuy
The BBC does not lean right by any stretch of the imagination.

That's why he wrote "conservative" with a small "c".


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Originally Posted by JohnG11
Originally Posted by PrairieGuy
The BBC does not lean right by any stretch of the imagination.

That's why he wrote "conservative" with a small "c".
Why not just be accurate and call them what they really are?

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Originally Posted by Anderton
This thread is entering its 8th month. When I titled it "Ok, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away, Now What?" I didn't mean "isn't going away, period."
The live sound people are really, really hurting.

Shows started back up a while ago in this area, there were some outdoor ones while the weather was still good but at this point they've all had to move inside. When I've gone to look at tickets via their email link a couple times there was a graphic showing masks required, social distancing, etc.. I'm not seeing that at this Stub Hub link but I suspect the requirements would display at some point.

US Cellular Center

As for my own act, some may know that my wife and I formed our own duo in 2019. We played several outdoor gigs over the course of this Summer but due to the horrible storm that caused extensive damage to our home on August 10th we didn't pursue any gigs past what we had on the books and were prepared to sit out the Fall/Winter season. That changed a few minutes ago however when I booked a gig for next Saturday at one of the places we played a couple times over the Summer.

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Originally Posted by PrairieGuy
Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
IMO The BBC is pretty reliable. Slightly on the conservative side of center but it has an extremely good truth vs lies rating.
The BBC does not lean right by any stretch of the imagination.

I saw zero politics in that article. It simply stated what we know up to this point about how coronavirus works, and the effect it has on the body.

I don't ever recall getting sick, and the illness asking first about my politics before deciding whether to make me sick or not. This politicization is way beyond stupid.

As I've said before, those who haven't experienced the effects of Covid-19 firsthand tend to dismiss it. Those who have had a loved one die in isolation have no doubt it's real.

The truth lies in between. Some people will get sick, some won't, some will be damaged, perhaps for the rest of their lives. Some won't be affected at all, some will die. For some it will be no big deal. For others, a life-shattering experience on multiple levels.

That's the way infectious diseases work. It's not like this is a big surprise, unless you know nothing about infectious diseases.

If anyone wants to know the reality of what's happening, talk to people in hospitals. I do. They're the most reliable source of information because they're experiencing people who have it, trying to figure out what they can do to prevent being infected from the patients who are sick (not that easy), what treatments seem to work, what treatments don't work, how long it takes for people to recover or die, etc.

They know more than any politician ever will. The ones I've talked to don't get paid $2,000 if someone dies of Covid. In fact they don't even get the equivalent of hazardous duty pay, and some of them still can't get the protective gear they need to feel safe. It doesn't matter how they voted.

I sincerely hope that no one reading this gets Covid-19 because it is going to at least mess with, and possibly end, your life. But anyone who thinks that because they haven't gotten sick somehow makes the 1,200,000 people who have died worldwide irrelevant is the height of solipsism. And don't forget, as far as the virus is concerned, if you haven't gotten it yet, you're in its crosshairs. It's a highly infectious virus that hasn't even reached full propagation yet.

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According to Harmonizer in the Keyboard Corner forum, "BluesKeys' second to last post, on 9/30, mentioned he had played a show the previous weekend which was supposed to be outside but got moved inside due to rain."

Because of that show, 100+ people have now tested positive, and 10 have died from Covid-19...including BluesKeys (Jimmy Weaver), who posted over in the Keyboard Corner. He died on October 10.

Yes, Covid-19 is real...and it's now starting to hit its stride, having picked off the easy targets. Don't believe any propaganda, learn to do your own research and think for yourself. Then, follow that up by actually thinking...an ability that seems to be in short supply these days.

Joined: Jul 2019
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Joined: Jul 2019
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More bad news.

A friend of mine played a few gigs at a bar. 3 out of 4 got COVID, one died (he had a weak heart), and my friend, the 4th reported he has a fever today.

I am sad for them.

Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Joined: Feb 2005
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Triple Secret Banninated
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Triple Secret Banninated
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frown


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
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