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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3054483 07/16/20 06:38 PM
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This math guy is full of crap because he's not paying attention to the whole story. I just posted two days ago about the CDC confirming 40% of people who have COVID are asymptomatic. Most don't bother getting tested and they are certainly contributing to the herd immunity numbers but are not showing up in hospitals.

Next, how many times have we posted stories saying there is still not enough testing available? He wrote this:

3) "In Mississippi, our population is 3 million. We've had 36,680 cases so far. We'd need 1.2 MILLION infections to achieve that hypothetical 40% threshold. (Remember, experts say it's double that.)"

Whatever total case numbers anybody is referring to you can bump them up by a factor of 3 or 4 just due to the lack of testing so lets move 36K to 100,000. Then bump that number up by that 40% asymptomatic factor to 140.000. Now, to look at this from another direction, there are several studies using antibody testing showing 4-5% positive. Some areas appeared to be higher, some lower. Well, what's 5% of 3 million? 150,000 which is basically the same number as I just came up with using lack of testing plus the 40% asymptomatic factor. And, I think the actual totals are higher than that because case numbers are not linear, they've been doubling every few weeks lately. I think Mississippi could be closer to 200,000 total infections and recoveries and you could make the argument this applies to the whole country. That puts the herd immunity concept closer to reality than what this guy wrote. He needs to plug in more factors into his equation.

This is a classic example of fake news simply publishing something with no critical thinking behind it. The basic conclusion is correct, we're not close to achieving herd immunity so they can say the article is good, it's correct. Yet the methodology is wrong by several orders of magnitude thus making it appear worse than it really is.

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3054484 07/16/20 06:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
Yes, it is that simple except...the Czech Republic is about the size of Mississippi with a population of 10 million or the population of LA County. In other words that means nothing. It's a piece of cake to handle a small isolated country like that.

I dunno...it's really not that much more isolated than Mississippi or LA County; it's landlocked and borders Germany and Poland, both of which had major outbreaks. So if it's a piece of cake to handle the Czech Republic, it should be a piece of cake to handle Mississippi or LA County.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Joe Muscara #3054494 07/16/20 07:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe Muscara
[Linked Image from ]

Beat me to it!

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3054508 07/16/20 08:36 PM
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I think that about sums it up!

And really, I feel like I haven't really gotten out much if getting a dental cleaning from a Tinder date is a thing.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3054511 07/16/20 08:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
There's a fascinating article about how the Czech Republic beat the corona virus. Of course I look at any article with skepticism, but their numbers don't lie, and life is more or less back to normal.

In the beginning of March, they locked down the country, closed the borders, and required everyone to weak a face mask. By the end of May, the lockdown was over, the face mask requirement was lifted, and everything re-opened. As of yesterday, they had 355 deaths. Almost every medical professional believes what made the difference was the requirement for universal face masks, and apparently, the Czechs were pretty hardcore about following that rule.

Wow. Maybe it really is just that simple.

It is just about that simple. This, social distancing, and comprehensive, consistent leadership so everyone locks down simultaneously is what you need.


We can see this example with developed countries. Developed countries that follow this protocol have great success. Developed countries that don't? Ummmm. Well....

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
KenElevenShadows #3054523 07/16/20 09:18 PM
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Originally Posted by KenElevenShadows
We can see this example with developed countries. Developed countries that follow this protocol have great success. Developed countries that don't? Ummmm. Well....
Then maybe "developed" is a relative term smile

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3054572 07/17/20 12:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
This math guy is full of crap because he's not paying attention to the whole story.<...>

Bob
Bob, remember he took it down to 40% instead of 80%, that should compensate for the asymptomatic.

If you really think it's OK, come to Florida if you feel you are having a heart attack. The ICUs are full almost all over the state. Elective surgery is suspended. Doctors and Nurses are working double shifts. And Miami has a mask ordinance, bars are shut down as are gyms and many other businesses, live music and DJs are not allowed, and so on. The hospitals are overwhelmed, even young people are dying.

Asymptomatic people frequently end up with permanent lung, brain, heart, kidney and other organ damage plus have little blood clots all over waiting to dislodge and cause a stroke. Is this the future you are advocating?

BTW, According to Politifact, CNN is one of the news services that lie the least. And they bash both sides of the aisle equally.

Notes


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3054573 07/17/20 12:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Originally Posted by KenElevenShadows
We can see this example with developed countries. Developed countries that follow this protocol have great success. Developed countries that don't? Ummmm. Well....
Then maybe "developed" is a relative term smile

Funny. You read my mind. I came close to putting "developed" in quotes.

There are 33 countries that most people feel are developed countries. 32 of them have universal healthcare. The other one is has rampant virus growth. But I'm sure this is just a coincidence.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3054591 07/17/20 03:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
BTW, According to Politifact, CNN is one of the news services that lie the least. And they bash both sides of the aisle equally.

I don't want to go down this road again. According to Andertonfact, the priority of the news media is making a profit. It has very little to do with creating a more informed public.

Back to our regularly scheduled programming.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3054620 07/17/20 10:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
BTW, According to Politifact, CNN is one of the news services that lie the least.

Notes
That should tell you everything you need to know about Politifact.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
KenElevenShadows #3054684 07/17/20 05:32 PM
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Originally Posted by KenElevenShadows
Originally Posted by Anderton
Originally Posted by KenElevenShadows
We can see this example with developed countries. Developed countries that follow this protocol have great success. Developed countries that don't? Ummmm. Well....
Then maybe "developed" is a relative term smile

Funny. You read my mind. I came close to putting "developed" in quotes.

There are 33 countries that most people feel are developed countries. 32 of them have universal healthcare. The other one is has rampant virus growth. But I'm sure this is just a coincidence.


I agree with you, Ken

The US is not acting like a 1st World Country in re: Covid 19 management and control.

Each state is tasked to " figure it out and good luck ",

close to Zero WH leadership, No unified national approach = more death and more sickness and failure.

We can see how Italy overcame Covid 19. Numerous country examples on standard pandemic
control and management.

And its not complicated on how to control a pandemic. The steps and guidance can fit on a 2 page document.

Its complicated when Covid 19 is allowed to become a raging firestorm.

Last edited by GregC; 07/17/20 05:35 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3054726 07/17/20 09:08 PM
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So now we have 140,000 deaths in the US and almost 600,000 worldwide in just five months, so I think we've established:

* It's not a hoax
* It's not going to disappear any time soon, and therefore...
* It's going to be a while before we get to gig again

I really don't know what's going to help the people who make a living from doing concerts...I really don't. Sure, home recording is going great, and people are making music. It's a good time for hobbyists and pros who want to woodshed.

But in addition to the pros who can't gig, I can't help but think this is another thing that hits peoples' morale. When the world gets strange, people turn to escape like movies, clubs, concerts. Those means of escape have been severely curtailed, even in places that have "opened up."

When you search on relief for artists due to COVID-19, you'll find quite a few local resources but unfortunately, many are not accepting any more applications until more funds come in.

Will this curtail live music so much that it will take years to come back? Or will concerts roar back at the first sign that things are back to normal?

I have no idea.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3054740 07/18/20 12:09 AM
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I suck at predictions but some things might be more obvious.

Live music has morphed into ' live and well produced video based music productions'.

If I was 20 years old and tatted up, thats where I would work.

If you and/or your band has some kind of following, you should blast away on social media
and continue marketing your stuff.

Or consider moving to Australia/New Zealand to chase old school live gigs.

FYI, I am not a wishful thinker.

Last edited by GregC; 07/18/20 12:12 AM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3054793 07/18/20 02:30 PM
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I'd love to move to Australia. I spent 5 weeks there two years ago and went from Brisbane up to the NE Corner over to Darwin (center middle) down the outback to Kangaroo Island and then meandered to Sydney taking in cities and parks along the entire route in a very small camper van..

I found the Australians to be some of the most friendly and civilized people in the world. I didn't meet a grouchy person in all 5 weeks, instead cheerful people who are eager to join a conversation with strangers and go out of their way to help each other.

The country was beautiful and interesting, the food was good, the symphony orchestra outstanding, and we enjoyed ourselves immensely. The beaches remind me of home, and some of the beach towns remind of the South Florida I grew up in (before it became overpopulated).

The move would be impractical for me though. My mortgage is paid off, so is my car, and I have zero debt. I like that. My house is in the county with low tax rates on a half acre close to the Atlantic Ocean and I have an established band business here. Of all the places in the USA this is where I like it the best.

Of course this has nothing to do with COVID, but they are having the virus problems down there too. It seems to me they are handling it better though.

Notes


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3054802 07/18/20 03:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
I really don't know what's going to help the people who make a living from doing concerts...I really don't.

It would seem that the people who work behind the scenes to put on "concerts" concerts, the vast majority of whom don't actually perform the music, have alot of marketable technical skills that would enable them to get a non-music industry, "essential" job. Or are their skills too specialized to allow for that? "It would seem"..I don't know many of those people, you do.

My own high-profile positions in the music industry have endowed me with the necessary skills to drive a box truck delivering pharmaceuticals; and I would be doing that right now were it not for the lady hiring me being hospitalized due to to COVID. So my answer would be, get a haircut and a real job, and enjoy the freedom of creating and pursuing whatever music suits your fancy. If the economy goes backward and shuts down again there will be less and less discretionary income for musicians to fight over. We're all grateful for financial assistance (PUA) but it won't last forever.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3054816 07/18/20 04:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
I'd love to move to Australia. I spent 5 weeks there two years ago and went from Brisbane up to the NE Corner over to Darwin (center middle) down the outback to Kangaroo Island and then meandered to Sydney taking in cities and parks along the entire route in a very small camper van..

I found the Australians to be some of the most friendly and civilized people in the world. I didn't meet a grouchy person in all 5 weeks, instead cheerful people who are eager to join a conversation with strangers and go out of their way to help each other.

The country was beautiful and interesting, the food was good, the symphony orchestra outstanding, and we enjoyed ourselves immensely. The beaches remind me of home, and some of the beach towns remind of the South Florida I grew up in (before it became overpopulated).

The move would be impractical for me though. My mortgage is paid off, so is my car, and I have zero debt. I like that. My house is in the county with low tax rates on a half acre close to the Atlantic Ocean and I have an established band business here. Of all the places in the USA this is where I like it the best.

Of course this has nothing to do with COVID, but they are having the virus problems down there too. It seems to me they are handling it better though.

Notes

you planned successfully. Our mortgage will be paid off by next March. Wife will retire from teaching in May. At that point, we are totally financially independent.
I retired 4 years ago.

If Covid19 gets under control, we have over due west coast/Colorado family travel next June.

If you can have a bubble from the rest of Florida, I think you are in good shape. We have some 'insulation '
from covid where we live in the SF Bay Area. That degree of insulation varies every day.

I also think we will have a vaccine in production by next spring. If so, we can begin to recover from the many problems
in our country.

New Zealand is on our long term travel plans.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
pinkfloydcramer #3054824 07/18/20 05:41 PM
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Originally Posted by pinkfloydcramer
Originally Posted by Anderton
I really don't know what's going to help the people who make a living from doing concerts...I really don't.

It would seem that the people who work behind the scenes to put on "concerts" concerts, the vast majority of whom don't actually perform the music, have alot of marketable technical skills that would enable them to get a non-music industry, "essential" job. Or are their skills too specialized to allow for that? "It would seem"..I don't know many of those people, you do.

Part of the problem is that the whole creative chain has kind of ground to a half. Sure, someone who mixes a band live could mix a church service...but there's probably already someone who's mixing the church service, whether streamed or in-person. Video and movie production has slowed way do. I'm very fortunate that people are still doing music while stuck at home, because companies selling music gear are doing okay, and they still need content, manuals, etc.

Quote
So my answer would be, get a haircut and a real job, and enjoy the freedom of creating and pursuing whatever music suits your fancy.

As I've said previously, one result of the pandemic will be that a lot of musicians, live sound engineers, and lighting specialists will find they make more money delivering food for GrubHub. Employment is starting to enter the casino phase...although the unemployment rate is high, companies whose workers run a greater risk of contracting COVID-19 (e.g., Uber) are looking for contractors to do the work.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3054828 07/18/20 06:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
As I've said previously, one result of the pandemic will be that a lot of musicians, live sound engineers, and lighting specialists will find they make more money delivering food for GrubHub. Employment is starting to enter the casino phase...although the unemployment rate is high, companies whose workers run a greater risk of contracting COVID-19 (e.g., Uber) are looking for contractors to do the work.


careers/chosen professions , esp in business, have been marginalized, automated, co-opted for +30 years .

What displaced folk did was research how to apply their " transferable skills ".

So one has to think out of their bubble, and research, and get creative.

It has been done, and it can be done.

I can already see one area where those skills are tranferable to.

Is it perfect fit ? Of course not. More education/learning/course work
will be needed.

Find a Silver Lining.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
pinkfloydcramer #3054893 07/19/20 02:26 PM
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Originally Posted by pinkfloydcramer
<...snip...>So my answer would be, get a haircut and a real job, and enjoy the freedom of creating and pursuing whatever music suits your fancy.<...>.
With over 10 million unemployed, I don't think the haircut is going to land a real job for people who's major skill is entertaining.

Originally Posted by GregC
you planned successfully. Our mortgage will be paid off by next March. Wife will retire from teaching in May. At that point, we are totally financially independent.<...>

The way I look it at is "We're free" No debt means nobody owns you.

As a self-employed musician, I've always been independent. I make my living what I love to do, I gain from my good decisions and hopefully learn from my bad ones.

I get up in the morning, go to bed at night, and in between do what I want to do. According to Bob Dylan, that's the definition of success.

I don't plan on retiring. Playing music is my Ikigai, my reason for getting out of bed, my purpose in life. Tony Bennett is is still gigging in his 90s, and I plan to do the same. I believe that when you retire, and no longer have a purpose in life, you body will start shutting down. I've seen too many people retire and die of boredom. Golf, fishing, and playing cards at 'the club' doesn't do it.

So my current game plan is to survive this plague, and when it is either over or under control, embrace the new normal. I have a feeling people will want to hear live music when it's safe to do so again.

It may be dark now, but the future should be bright.

Insights and incites by Notes


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3054896 07/19/20 02:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
[

As a self-employed musician, I've always been independent. I make my living what I love to do, I gain from my good decisions and hopefully learn from my bad ones.

I get up in the morning, go to bed at night, and in between do what I want to do. According to Bob Dylan, that's the definition of success.

I don't plan on retiring. Playing music is my Ikigai, my reason for getting out of bed, my purpose in life. Tony Bennett is is still gigging in his 90s, and I plan to do the same. I believe that when you retire, and no longer have a purpose in life, you body will start shutting down. I've seen too many people retire and die of boredom. Golf, fishing, and playing cards at 'the club' doesn't do it.

So my current game plan is to survive this plague, and when it is either over or under control, embrace the new normal. I have a feeling people will want to hear live music when it's safe to do so again.

It may be dark now, but the future should be bright.

Insights and incites by Notes


I will never 'retire ' from music. I write originals. 80 on my SoundCloud.

Our friend, Tony, makes a brief appearance in my
"Rainbow in Your Sky " which is song #2, same playlist

Also is on my Song #3, same Playlist:
"Find a Silver Lining"
https://soundcloud.com/user-898236994/sets/chill


I also believe life will be much improved 1 year from now
[ have friends that think I am crazy in saying this ].

My One Year from Today is song #4:
https://soundcloud.com/user-898236994/sets/chill

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3054901 07/19/20 03:20 PM
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@GregC, I listened to and liked "Silver Lining". Great stuff! I'm assuming you submitted it to one of the KC compilations. I'll get to the the others.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
GregC #3054933 07/19/20 11:08 PM
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Originally Posted by GregC
I agree with you, Ken

The US is not acting like a 1st World Country in re: Covid 19 management and control.

Each state is tasked to " figure it out and good luck ",

close to Zero WH leadership, No unified national approach = more death and more sickness and failure.

We can see how Italy overcame Covid 19. Numerous country examples on standard pandemic
control and management.

And its not complicated on how to control a pandemic. The steps and guidance can fit on a 2 page document.

Its complicated when Covid 19 is allowed to become a raging firestorm.

It pains me to describe our country, our home that way, but I also don’t want to sugar coat anything.

We resemble a third world country in several ways with our rampant gun violence, income inequality, homelessness, lack of health care/maternity leave, bizarrely high incarceration rate, and if Portland is any indication, fascist secret federal police.

33 developed countries.
32 have universal health care.
32 wear masks consistently or really consistently.

The other one has horrible virus growth.

"Developed" indeed.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
pinkfloydcramer #3054941 07/19/20 11:36 PM
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Originally Posted by pinkfloydcramer
@GregC, I listened to and liked "Silver Lining". Great stuff! I'm assuming you submitted it to one of the KC compilations. I'll get to the the others.

Thank you for listening and the compliments, brother !

Haven't gotten to the KC compilation. Need to see the plans, etc.

I have 50% of my originals in 3 play lists on SoundCloud.

Here are 2 of the Playlists:

https://soundcloud.com/user-898236994/sets/progressive-heart

https://soundcloud.com/user-898236994/sets/smooth-jazz

Link me up to what music you are working on.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3055125 07/21/20 04:25 PM
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I'm just wondering if anyone noticed that this peaked back in mid-April and has been declining steadily since?

CDC Death Count

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3055129 07/21/20 04:52 PM
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thank goodness. Doctors are much better at treating patients with the virus now.


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Greg Mein #3055131 07/21/20 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Greg Mein
I'm just wondering if anyone noticed that this peaked back in mid-April and has been declining steadily since?

CDC Death Count

It is indeed a positive sign, but I think people are still nervous about seeing whether the recent increase in infections results in more deaths. And of course, even if you don't die, getting really sick with lasting issues doesn't sound like any picnic.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3055136 07/21/20 05:52 PM
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What I think is starting to get some attention, or desperately needs to get some attention, is that how over 45% of US COVID deaths are from .6% of the population- nursing homes and long term care facilities. Are death rates declining because there are fewer grandmothers left to kill? Or just because musicians were prevented from gigging?

The smartest governors were those who decreed that deaths of nursing home residents who died after being taken to hospitals not be counted as nursing home COVID deaths. That came in handy when they investigated (and cleared) themselves for their policy that nursing homes be forced to accept COVID patients. Yet they (he) is lauded for masterful handling of the pandemic and indeed were it not for him, 60k instead of only 30k might have died in his state.

Here is a very depressing chart. And alot of the numbers DO look suspect, not just NY showing that only 14.9% of their COVID deaths were from nursing homes and LTC facilities. But Avik Roy, to his credit, stated he was not going to make up numbers but was going to go with what he was being told by the states. https://twitter.com/Avik/status/1283399925460602881

I know there are a lot of factors muddying up not only this data but virtually any COVID related data. For example, differentiating between dying with COVID vs dying because of COVID. George Floyd seems to be the lone case where this distinction was made, but it's a start. And how much do financial incentives- hospitals getting more CARE funds for reporting deaths as cause by COVID- affect this? But being skeptical of data doesn't excuse throwing all data out, any more than it means you are a "Covid Hoaxer".

Last edited by pinkfloydcramer; 07/21/20 07:20 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3055145 07/21/20 07:22 PM
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Of course, that figure also includes the workers and staff at those facilities, let's not forget them.

Being at a long-term care facility doesn't mean "is going to die in the next day anyway." The reality is that that any illness will have a greater effect on the elderly. Many societies revere their elders. It's ironic that before the pandemic, the "greatest generation" was being lauded on the various WWII anniversaries. Now they're just a nuisance to everyone else.

But there are no easy answers to any of this. What is acceptable collateral damage? Does being pro-life apply up to only a certain age? Are there ways to protect those who are most vulnerable while letting the rest of society go about its business? Is the fixation on death counts masking what happens to those who don't die but have long-term negative effects? Will the spike in infections lead to more deaths in the next six weeks? If not, is it because the virus is losing its potency, the demographics, good luck, or a combination of factors? Why are the US stats per capita so much worse than many other countries? Is it solely because of an aging demographic, or are there other factors? What is the cost to the economy if it's open but this thing drags on? Why aren't gravely ill people in horrific pain, with little chance of leading a normal life again, not being offered the option for assisted suicide?

I do think the media has gone overboard on this, and I'm disgusted that an issue about public health has become politicized. What's more, there are a lot of other things happening in the world that deserve our attention.

But it's also important to remember this isn't over yet. After a lengthy period of decline, the number of dead people has been rising every day since July 6. There were over 5,000 deaths in the last week, and a 4.6% increase overall that week for the United States. We don't know what's going to happen in the fall. We don't know long-term effects. We don't know when a vaccine will be available and whether it will be effective. We don't even know if any of the numbers we see are accurate.

Nature has sucker-punched us, and an affluent society that usually gets its own way doesn't know how to react. Err on the side of caution? Caution is overrrated? Only old people die anyway? It's really not that bad? We haven't even seen the worst of it yet?

I don't have the answers to these questions, and at this point, I don't trust anyone who says they do smile

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2 members like this: davedoerfler, pinkfloydcramer
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3055151 07/21/20 07:52 PM
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So much is not yet known, but at the start it WAS known that the elderly were the most vulnerable. And yet more than one governor, on the recommendation of their health experts, ordered that nursing homes in their state be forced to accept COVID patients. There were also a few governors who, harnessing the awesome power of science and reason, ordered the opposite- that nursing homes couldn't take in new residents unless they tested negative. The former group are lauded while the latter group are whipping boys.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3055184 07/21/20 11:26 PM
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If you need standards of how a pandemic is managed and reduced , look at Italy and Japan.

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