Question: In your opinion, will tube amps still be manufactured 50 years from now.

[Hound Dog]

Question: In your opinion, will tube amps still be manufactured 50 years from now.

 

We probably all know what we would LIKE for the answer to be, but what does your experience and gut really tell you? Will tube amps become cost prohibitive to market on a realistic scale? Will music change to the point that generations grow to accept lower cost amps or will modeling become "good enough" to the point that manufacturers just do not see any business reason to continue production? If you think they will, do you think there will be only unbelievably expensive amps available or do you think that there will be mass produced models? Remember, many of us will probably not be the ones driving market decisions 50 years from now. Many of those who will haven't been born yet.

 

Or will tube amps survive simply because they are an essential element of the desired sound?

[Kramer Ferrington III.]

Originally posted by Hound Dog:

Question: In your opinion, will tube amps still be manufactured 50 years from now.

 

I doubt it very much...

[Guitar55]

IMO...no. The current inovations in modeling will stop focusing on trying to emulate vintage amps and get more focused on just making amps that sound good.

[Dr. Ellwood]

I don't think so.

[Caevan O’Shite]

Idunno, I think that modeling in general will grow more and more, and become better and even different than it is now; but I think that a small contingincey of tube-amp makers may be offering the real deal then, too. One thing's for sure- an evolutionary "process of elimination"/"survival of the fittest" will go on from now to then...

[Guitarzan]

good question. i would like to think that even with further improvements to modeling there will still be some tubes amps around. but i guess as the present generation of amp users end up in old folks homes, there will not be many tube amp worshippers left to market to.

i will be 95.

[Kramer Ferrington III.]

Originally posted by Dances With Werewolves:

an evolutionary "process of elimination"/"survival of the fittest" will go on from now to then...

And then of course, there's the question of what will happen if and when the few factories left that are still making tubes decide that it's more rewarding to retool for fridges or whatever. Guitar amps are NOT a huge market, really.

 

I wish amp manufacturers would make valve amps more accessible to younger players. To the sort of player that doesn't quite know about the sound difference yet but is all too aware of the price difference.

 

Until valves go back to being a mainstream technology (at least for amps), the way solid state is, there'll always be a risk that factories will simply stop making them.

[JimK]

I doubt tube amps will still be produced 50 years from now. What I wonder is, what will the frame of reference for modelling be? Right now everyone rates a modelled amp based on how good it sounds compared to "the real thing". But, as you say, many of the consumers 50 years from now aren't even born yet. It's kind of like kids now with rotary phones. Show a kid a rotary phone and they have no idea what to do with it. I can see the day (probably in 2112 ) where a kid finds an old tube amp and doesn't know what to do with it. Fifty years from now will companies still try to market modelling technology by saying "it sounds like the real thing", or will the real thing be so long gone that no one cares anymore?

[LPCustom]

Of course, they'll always need tubes to keep the space shuttle flying...

 

Anyway, I agree with Vince that tube technology for amps needs to be brought back to the mainstream and not just for those who already know the difference and are willing to bite the bullet for the additional cost.

 

Some of the new tube amp offerings, though, are somewhat encouraging in that regard. They aren't exactly the best in quality, but from what I've read so far the inexpensive tube amps from companies like Epiphone should give people on a low budget a taste of what guitar amps _should_ sound like.

 

The modeling amps may get there eventually, but I think it will take a good bit more sophistication in the models and the hardware before they really can rival tube driven amps.

 

I think they need to go back to the drawing board in one regard and that is what they are modeling. It seems that most are trying to model the end result rather than the behavior of the various amp sections themselves. I think if they model each amp section accurately based on the hardware involved (various incarnations of tubes have different characteristics) they will come off with a more accurate reproduction of the sound.

 

I saw the same thing in robotics technology. They tried a centralized approach that was klunky, slow and really complicated. Finally they've figured out that a distributed model works better. I think the same will be true of modeling amps.

 

But with regard to actual tubes being available in 50 years time. No, I don't think they will be. There just isn't a big enough market to keep factories for them going. Especially if the modeling amp makers finally get their act together.

[Hound Dog]

I guess we are living in a Golden Age.

[Kramer Ferrington III.]

Originally posted by Hound Dog:

I guess we are living in a Golden Age.

I think we're at the end of a golden age. I doubt the kids being born today (31st of October, 2005) will have as nice a world as I did... Oh, you're talking about amps... well, yeah. I guess we are.

 

No, perhaps we're at the ernd of that too. Once upon a time tube amps were a lot cheaper.

[Ricochet]

It just depends on whether tubes are still being made. We're riding on the coattails of a tube industry that was kept alive for military purposes in the former Soviet bloc and China. It remains to be seen how long the current consumer demand will keep the factories open. It's not a big market, as has been said.

[doc taz]

No.

 

If more enterprising companies like Blue Tone come to the market, then that'll eventually push the tube guys out of business. There'll be a good dose of both analog and digital modeling. At least solid state analog technology won't die out soon. Most speakers can't run without some analog circuitry, anyhow.

 

Speaking of which...

 

See my current icon? That was snapped with that old 35mm Pentax K1000 SLR ( single lens reflex ) film camera in the past month. A year from now (or perhaps in less time, if I can help it...), that'll be most likely a digital version. Yes, I do have a digital point-and-shoot, but I love SLR's. Don't even get me started on a discussion about medium and large format cameras...

 

It's amazing how a lot of video and other audio gear has made its transition to digital technology in such a short time.

 

Personally, all I really care about is the end result.

 

I've been seeing this sort of discussion pop up all over the place lately... is there something weird in the water right now?

[Billster]

My gut reaction is actually a yes. I see Taz's point about digital cameras vs. film cameras, but this is a little different.

 

They may become an expensive boutique item though, and if you have an old one, it will be difficult and expensive to get parts. But go to a vintage car show, and look at the swap meet of people trading parts and fabricating their own stuff from metal blanks. Vacuum tubes would probably be the hardest thing to acquire, because of the manufacturing process.

 

Notice how in sci-fi lit, the future always has everyone in the same simple clothing like Star Trek, but in reality, as we move forward, choices multiply exponentially. For instance what color would you like your telephone to be? The answer used to be black, no matter what.

[Bluesape]

I feel there will always be an elite cult justifying the manufacture of ridiculously expensive tube amps to plug our criminally expensive Gibsons into.

[picker]

Yes, but very few and no one but the very rich will be able to afford them.

[miroslav]

Tube amps and electric guitars are about as tight and long a lasting relationship as you can get in the music/audio world!

 

Tube amps aren't just about "amplification"...and so that something else can easily replace them down the road.

 

The manufacture and use of tubes in other kinds of equipment (on any regular basis) kinda' died about 30 years ago...but yet...tube amps trucked on.

And...if people didn't care enough to keep tube amps alive all these years...they too would have died along time ago...replaced by solid state gear.

But yet...they still survive.

 

As far as tubes no longer being manufactured...well, as long as there is demand...I'm sure there will be one or two manufacturers churnin' out tubes. You dont need a HUGE factory with hundreds of employees to churn out tubes. If you have the machineryyou can be cost effectively makin tubes for all those thousands of tube loversnowand 50 years form now.

 

Tubes and tube amps will be alive in 50 years as much as they are now.

[Lynksys]

Originally posted by LPCustom:

[QB] Of course, they'll always need tubes to keep the space shuttle flying...

 

LOL...that pretty much sums it up...

 

If the future of amp modeling is the Line6 , then I prefer to keep my Peavey 6505+ , but no , I don't think tube amps will be around for long.

The 4X12 cabs will be around for centuries though.

 

[Caevan O’Shite]

One thing- alnico magnets have a half-life of about thirty years, meaning that when thirty years have passed, an alnico magnet has lost roughly half of its magnetism, and then thirty years past that, half of that remaining magnetic strength goes, and so on. Speakers (and pickups) with alnico magnets will have become pretty crippled by then, unless their owners realize what's up and have them precision re-gaussed...

[Gruupi]

In fifty years will anything be manufactured on a mass basis. If so we had better find some alternative energy sources to both pruduce and distribute these goods.

 

But I would imagine that there will be a couple of people who might find a way to make tubes cheaply. Its not the amps that bother me, but I have heard that tube maunufacturers in general are not very common. Thats assuming that there will be a market for them. Aside from guitar players, and maybe some HiFi enthusiasts, what products are not going to be replaced by digital?

[pollock]

I'm sure they will still be made, but probably not mass produced. Very expensive models will be sold, but not as popular as newer technology. (IMHO)

[Jabberwocky]

Bravo Miroslav !!

Everyone seems to forget that there is a major hi-fi industry out there. This is not just about guitars !!..........for every tube loving guitarist there is probably a tube lovin hi-fi buff. Case in point, I buy my sets of matched quads for my Peavey Deuce from 'The Hi Fi Collective'.

 

The whole thing is like the man said, digital photography is taking the world by storm, but there will always be a minority who wish to use film and chemicals. Already the major producers like Agfa and Ilford only produce a fraction of the varieties of black and white film they used to, but they are still making some.

 

Likewise, I reckon some small tube factories will keep on churning em out. As long as there is a demand. Guess its up to us to teach our children well !!

[miroslav]

Originally posted by Dances With Werewolves:

Speakers (and pickups) with alnico magnets will have become pretty crippled by then, unless their owners realize what's up and have them precision re-gaussed...

Hey wolfy...

 

Do you know the details of that whole process...?

Is the entire speaker or pickup "zapped"...or...???

I'm curious.

 

Heck...I sure know how easy it is to magnitize certain metals, from playing around with my Annis Han-D-Mag a few times!

 

But...I wonder if it is a simple a process of just that...or is there a set level of magnetism that must be applied to the speaker/PU magnets...?

[Kramer Ferrington III.]

Originally posted by Jabberwocky:

digital photography is taking the world by storm, but there will always be a minority who wish to use film and chemicals.

Being pretty big on archery, I can really grasp your analogy. They've kept on making (and improving) bows, why not tubes/valves?

[fuddmusic]

Originally posted by Hound Dog:

Question: In your opinion, will tube amps still be manufactured 50 years from now.

I very much doubt they will be manufactured economically within 15 years..so the last coffin nail should penetrate no later than 20...I think modellers will have it satisfactorily together before this.

Rob

[miroslav]

It may be possible that modellers will have the tube sound nailed close enough for R&R.

 

But...not matter HOW close they sound like the real thing...

...don't you think there will be enough people who are willing to spend more than $50 on a modelling pedal...

...who will still want THE REAL THING...?

 

If there is a market...someone will be making it and selling it.

And IMO...there are enough guitar players that WILL always want a REAL tube amp.

 

Look...here's what the options would be:

 

"Hey Mr. hard core R&R guitar man...you wanna by this modeller?

It sound JUST like the real thing!"

 

...or...

 

"Hey Mr. hard core R&R guitar man...you wanna by this tube amp?

It IS real thing!"

 

 

OK...pick one....

 

But if you guys JUST want to talk about the economics of making and buying a tube amp 50 years from now...vs....modellers...

 

...OK....there will be many guitar players that WILL opt for the $50 modeller.

 

But I'm sure there will still be those that are willing to spend the cash on a real tube amp.

[fuddmusic]

Originally posted by miroslav:

It may be possible that modellers will have the tube sound nailed close enough for R&R.

 

But...not matter HOW close they sound like the real thing...

...don't you think there will be enough people who are willing to spend more than $50 on a modelling pedal...

...who will still want THE REAL THING...?

 

If there is a market...someone will be making it and selling it.

And IMO...there are enough guitar players that WILL always want a REAL tube amp.

 

Look...here's what the options would be:

 

"Hey Mr. hard core R&R guitar man...you wanna by this modeller?

It sound JUST like the real thing!"

 

...or...

 

"Hey Mr. hard core R&R guitar man...you wanna by this tube amp?

It IS real thing!"

 

 

OK...pick one....

 

But if you guys JUST want to talk about the economics of making and buying a tube amp 50 years from now...vs....modellers...

 

...OK....there will be many guitar players that WILL opt for the $50 modeller.

 

But I'm sure there will still be those that are willing to spend the cash on a real tube amp.

Take into the equation that attitudes change as well as times. We won't be in the marketing picture..well I won't The generatons to come will probably marvel over the original POD like it's a holy grail. Hey, the Tubescreamer is actually marketed as "warm"...it's solid state...people believe it, the buy it. SRV has a lot to answer for but that's another debate!

Rob

[miroslav]

Originally posted by fuddmusic:

Take into the equation that attitudes change as well as times.

Hmmmm...well, tube amps have been around for well over 50 years already!

And...there have been solid state options for around 40 years.

And...there have been modeling amps for the last...10?

 

And yet...IMO...tube amps are still the king of the hill for guitar players!

 

Just like we still cling to a lot of the "vintage" stuff now...I think another 50 years won't change that attitude...and I doubt that in 50 years, guitar players will only remember back as far as the "Pods"...and completely forget tube amps!

[synthetic]

Didn't tube amps all but go away in the 70s and early 80s? Solid state took over the industry, because it was cheaper and more robust. Then people came back to tubes. Now it's modeling.

 

I think the original will always be there. It's like saying frozen yogurt will overtake ice cream, or Chinese strat copies will replace Strats. The replacement always comes short of the original.

 

Here's another reason. Manufacturers and retailers like to sell expensive things, because they make more money. So I can't imagine that Marshall will completely replace their tube line with modeling. They just went the other direction - the new hand-wired collection. As long as people are buying Jimi Hendrix CDs, they're going to want to buy a real, tube full stack. And there will always be someone to sell it to them.

[fuddmusic]

Originally posted by miroslav:

Originally posted by fuddmusic:

Take into the equation that attitudes change as well as times.

Hmmmm...well, tube amps have been around for well over 50 years already!

And...there have been solid state options for around 40 years.

And...there have been modeling amps for the last...10?

 

And yet...IMO...tube amps are still the king of the hill for guitar players!

 

Just like we still cling to a lot of the "vintage" stuff now...I think another 50 years won't change that attitude...and I doubt that in 50 years, guitar players will only remember back as far as the "Pods"...and completely forget tube amps!

Good points..you could be right

Rob