Jump to content


Please note: You can easily log in to MPN using your Facebook account!

DVD's obsolete in 10 years?


Recommended Posts

"DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years at the latest, Microsoft boss and founder Bill Gates (news - web sites) predicted.

 

Asked what home entertainment would like in the future, Gates said that DVD technology would be "obsolete in 10 years at the latest. If you consider that nowadays we have to carry around film and music on little silver discs and stick them in the computer, it's ridiculous," Gates said in comments reproduced in German in the mass-circulation daily Bild..."

 

Article here...

Link to comment
Share on other sites



  • Replies 47
  • Created
  • Last Reply
There has been talk about RAM(ROM) for years. I predicted all that stuff will be on a ole Nintendo type cartridge pretty soon. No skipping, no damage,(unless you sit on it). I just didn't write an article. :D Kcbass

 "Let It Be!"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Originally posted by Kcbass:

There has been talk about RAM(ROM) for years. I predicted all that stuff will be on a ole Nintendo type cartridge pretty soon. No skipping, no damage,(unless you sit on it). I just didn't write an article. :D Kcbass

No, you missed the point, KC.

 

Gates is basically saying that any removeable media will be obsolete, and I disagree entirely. These are the times that I wish someone would slap Bill Gates. ;)

 

I won't go into a rant on this topic. Let's just say that there are tremendous convenience and security factors here.

 

- Jeff

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They'll sell you downloads 4 or 5 times. No muss, no fuss, just give us your money. What ?? Your hard drive crashed ?? Oh well, you'll just have to buy new downloads, I mean rent, as you won't own anything...hey, they're doing that now.

Living' in the shadow,

of someone else's dream....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't get me wrong. I love the idea of ridiculously wide bandwidth and massive inter-networking.

 

But I still like the idea of not being forced to use those methods to get something from "A" to "B". I think there are privacy issues, and I think there are issues of data integrity.

 

So sure... hook me up! Give me more bandwidth than I could ever conceive of needing! But don't take away my little disc (or whatever), please.

 

- Jeff

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Telecomunications and content will merge, it's already happening with mp3-players/cell phones/digital cameras/PDA's/web clients.

 

Over here digital television is catching on big and they are also using the same networks for broadband internet. Digital radio is also happening.

http://www.lexam.net/peter/carnut/man.gif

What do we want? Procrastination!

When do we want it? Later!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1. Spinning Disc = BAD. Sony/Philips has a near-monopoly on the patents for cd/dvd players and disc replication, so they will fight like wildcats to keep us in the cycle of upgrading our poorly-made players every three or four years. These players are designed with planned obsolescense, and new spinning-disc formats are introduced to keep us in the fold. To think like a record company (it gives me agita ), CD, DVD, and even SA-CD (copied through analog outputs and re-encoded) are inherently insecure.

 

Sony, to their credit, maybe, has doggedly stuck with MemoryStick so they have a viable delivery format if the market turns toward solid-state delivery. Sony has recently introduced a new download service that only will download to their own player, in their own digital-delivery format. Don't accuse them of not being forward-thinking.

 

2. No-moving-parts GOOD. If the consumer electronics industry got together tomorrow and decreed that from now on, media will be delivered on more-secure solid state memory, of whatever flavor, current formats would be gone in a relatively short amount of time (and higher-density proposals, like BluRay, would never make it off the drawing boards). Right now, industry groups estimate that 74 minutes of MP-3 quality sound could be distributed at the same price as current CDs. Following Moore's law, within a few years, hi-def video/audio could be distributed for the same price as today's DVDs.

 

3. I have to disagree with you, Jeff, about the evils of networked distribution (as much as I hate to agree with Bill Gates). Why does the content have to exist phisically in your pocket or on a shelf at home? I'm gettin' old, but I have media that I purchased as a child that is now unusable. Why should someone who only wants the low-rez version of a work of music pay for the hi-rez version, or vice-versa?

 

There are proposals for the content to be distributed from centralized locations via networks (wireless, internet, whatever). If this was one location, or from the governenment, yes, we would have the right, and the duty, to be frightened. If this was from the big three (or four or five) record labels/movie studios, well, we'd be back to square one. If this could just as easily be distributed by independant distributors or even by the artist themselves as easily as from the majors...well, we have made a vast improvement, and encouraged the creation of new art.

 

No technological security will every be un-crackable, but networked distribution will be at least at the first spigot, be more accurately controlled.

 

A license can be more directly sold and assigned with a system such as this, and most importantly, revenue can be more directly distributed to the copyright holder. In today's system, that revenue is boiled, chopped, and wrapped by the time it gets to the content-creator, who ends up with a sliver of the meal. right now, the license is a few sq.cm of fine-print on a cd label, leading to our current lack of understanding by the general public as to just what they can and can not do with the music they think they are buying.

 

We still have to satisfy the shopping-gene, so a credit-card sized key can be sold at Tower (assuming they survive). This key can plug into a networked player - in your pocket, in your car, in your home - enabling you to enjoy the content to the extent your purchased license lets you. This key could be sold in an LP-sized package, for those of us who miss the days of LP Art. It could be sold only on the network, so listening/viewing could commence immediately. If you purchase the low-rez version, a smart marketer could offer discounts for an upgrade to a hi-rez version, without using more petrochemical resources to press another spinning disc, or vise-versa.

 

With the proper equipment, and according to your license or concience (as with today), you can choose to put an image of this on permanent media, redistribute the content, etc. There's actually not much difference between this and today's paradigm, except that we get rid of the damn spinning discs and have a more flexible, enforceable license.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is this the same guy who, a few years ago, said something like "64 Meg of RAM is enough for anybody!" or something. :rolleyes::D

 

Is There Gas In The Car? :cool:

"Music expresses that which cannot be put into words and that which cannot remain silent." - Victor Hugo
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ahhh yes...

on-demand...instant gratification...homogenized...10x diluted...

entertainment. :bor:

 

And to think that people use to make fun of elevator muzak! :D

 

Isn't it all becoming just that...?

 

Music is becoming such a disposable commodity...that is why most music that is being released today has no real identity.

Before it catches anyone interest...it is being replaced by something new.

Imagine when it is all just data on the Information Superhighway ...when it is all "soft media"...

...it will be pumped in overt the wide-bandwidth internet in GOBS and GOBS...

...just like they pump in the elevator muzak!!!

 

Remember television?

When there were a dozen off-air channels...there seemed to always be something to watch...it was an event...people got excited about an upcoming broadcast.

Now...500+ channels of homogenized crap coming in over the digital dish or your cable

and people are paying $75 - $100 - $100+ a month for it...

almost religiously!!! :rolleyes:

miroslav - miroslavmusic.com

 

"Just because it happened to you, it doesn't mean it's important."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1) Take whatever time table Bill gives you and double it. That's his track record.

 

2) 80% of Americans can't afford or refuse to buy a new computer every 3 years, repurchase their entire movie collection on VHS, DVD, HD-DVD, then untimately store it on some local server that was streamed over the Internet.

 

3) Wasn't DVD-A supposed to render all CDs obsolete 2 years ago?

 

I remember working for PBS in 1993 and the station President was trying to sell the idea of HDTV to the staff that, at the time was going to be mandated by Congress by 1995. He showed a documentary of a typical 90's home with no entertainment center, no cable TV, no phones, no security system, only a 486DX laptop with an Internet connection. Everything was supposed to integrate with one solution by 1998. It obviously failed. Why? Because no product can successfully be everything to everyone. They were selling snake oil, and that's what Bill is doing now.

 

Lastly, he is DYING to be a media mogul like Steve Jobs has become. XP was supposed to be THE multimendia platform, an effort to syphon the pro-end customers from Mac. He's pushed hard to have MSNBC be much more of a leader in the broadcast realm, but with little success. Now he wants to dabble in the media delivery market. Bill, if you try to do everything, you'll do nothing well.

Whenever you find that you are on the side of the majority, it is time to reform.

Mark Twain (1835-1910)

--------------------

Reporter: "Ah, do you think you could destroy the world?" The Tick: "Ehgad I hope not. That's where I keep all my stuff!"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Originally posted by Doug Osborne:

3. I have to disagree with you, Jeff, about the evils of networked distribution (as much as I hate to agree with Bill Gates). Why does the content have to exist phisically in your pocket or on a shelf at home? I'm gettin' old, but I have media that I purchased as a child that is now unusable. Why should someone who only wants the low-rez version of a work of music pay for the hi-rez version, or vice-versa?

All excellent points, Doug. All true.

 

But the moment that physical media is gone, so is any pretense of privacy. As soon as every piece of data has to pass through 10 servers from point A to point B, it means that there's lots more opportunity for someone to steal my song that's in the process of being written, or to look at my corporate data, and so on.

 

In terms of uni-directional entertainment -- watching a movie, listening to a tune, whatever -- yes, I agree 100%. I don't require a little disc to carry around that could get damaged as long as I have easy access to my desired content wherever I am in the world (including a moving vehicle, for example).

 

But for content creators, there are times that I appreciate not sending my data around where it could get picked up by others. We see this on the advertising side right now... several magazines have FTP sites where (if I were less scrupulous) I could go and look at my competitors ads before they go into the magazine, allowing me to get advance notice of new product releases and so on. The good publications (like the ones of the Music Player group) do not allow others to see what's on the ad server once its been posted. But most others do.

 

All of this could be prevented by sending a disc instead of transmitting data via FTP. You see where I'm coming from.

 

- Jeff

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Originally posted by Is There Gas in the Car?:

Is this the same guy who, a few years ago, said something like "64 Meg of RAM is enough for anybody!" or something. :rolleyes::D

 

Is There Gas In The Car? :cool:

Actually, I think it was 640k of RAM.
I really don't know what to put here.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It all comes down to who owns what.

 

You own a silver disc then it's yours. Fuck that, they want to sell you other stuff, maybe a payment per view or download, maybe something else.

 

Look at your DVD collection, what do you own?

 

A set of rights to display that content in acceptable arenas.

 

I dunno ... I doubt networks are gonna get fast enough to provide great quality DVD content within the next 10 years, I'm downloading Farenheit 911 on bittorrent right now (MM says it's OK) it'll be a few days before it's finished and I'm on ADSL.

 

Anyhoo, Bill Gates can fuck off and die. What an evil troll. Jobs is better but still not perfect so I'll stick with him until something better comes along.

 

I just wish people thought about these things more but 99% of people don't ... for whatever reason.

 

I told my dad to ditch IE for Firefox, even put it on his machine and copied the bookmarks for him. He says he prefers MSN and IE.

 

I say he can pay the bill when a virus eats his hard drive and I'm not around to fix it.

"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." - Banky Edwards.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I do think DVD will be obsolete in ten years, and will be replaced by something else. Yes, on demand downloads with the data residing on servers somewhere is likely, as is the micropayment paradigm. But I don't see the need for removeable media going completely away any time soon.

 

I think it will go towards something like solid state, non-moving parts memory sticks and things of that nature, with a universal standard - imagine those little USB hard disks - except with a lot more capacity - being able to plug into anything - your home or car stereo, your TV - whatever. And yes, I see a lot of things in the typical home being on a network - TV, stereo, computer... that is, if the computer doesn't eventually replace all of those things. But even if it does, I still think we'll eventually see our homes (heating and A/C, security systems, sprinkler systems, etc. etc.) all under computer control.

 

In ten years? I doubt it. But I do think we're going to see more integration of computers in everyday life, and I do think DVD's will eventually be as obsolete as 8" floppies. That part WILL probably happen within ten years - they just won't have the storage capacity to handle the amount of data that will be desired.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Originally posted by Sylver:

Originally posted by Is There Gas in the Car?:

Is this the same guy who, a few years ago, said something like "64 Meg of RAM is enough for anybody!" or something. :rolleyes::D

 

Is There Gas In The Car? :cool:

Actually, I think it was 640k of RAM.
Yes, back when any application could run from 64k of memory, and 64k cost more than today's computers. Then Bill invented bloatware.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The way things are going, we may not care about dvd's or computers 10 years from now...with the cost of electricity, gas, medical care, and housing...our priorities may be basic day to day survival, and working for pennies a day.

Living' in the shadow,

of someone else's dream....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Originally posted by Rog:

It all comes down to who owns what.

 

You own a silver disc then it's yours. Fuck that, they want to sell you other stuff, maybe a payment per view or download, maybe something else.

 

Look at your DVD collection, what do you own?

 

A set of rights to display that content in acceptable arenas.

 

...

Wrong. Read the license on a CD, you still don't own the work, just a license to play it. This doesn't change with a newer distribution system, and it possibly gets more enforceable.

 

Buy one of Phait's photos (love the alliteration), and I'll bet you get a license to vue this image or use it in certain ways, but he still owns the work.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Originally posted by Doug Osborne:

Wrong. Read the license on a CD, you still don't own the work, just a license to play it.

 

Isn't that what I said? :confused:
"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." - Banky Edwards.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Originally posted by Doug Osborne:

Originally posted by Rog:

Originally posted by Doug Osborne:

Wrong. Read the license on a CD, you still don't own the work, just a license to play it.

 

Isn't that what I said? :confused:
I guess I misread
You own a silver disc then it's yours
.
Yep, you own a silver disk.
"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." - Banky Edwards.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...