Ready for a Ride into the Future?

[Anderton]

Here's the keynote video address I did for the Pro Audio+Radio Tech Summit on April 1. It's 15 minutes long.

 

For now the link is unlisted, so it's only for MusicPlayer.com folks...

 

A splendid time is guaranteed for all!

 

[video:youtube]

[KuruPrionz]

Interesting and an excellent presentation - many ideas are covered well in a relatively short time.

I recognized a couple of your songs, converted to background music. That works out nicely too.

 

I can't agree or disagree with most of it - predicting the future is always a gamble. Wildcards can change everything (and might).

 

I'm less optimistic about the next 12 months. Without getting political, history does show us that some things don't always go according to projections.

The current situation in India with CV_19 is dire and escalating. Viruses being versatile little beasts and this particular strain being fairly new in terms of human research and human resistance, I suspect we may see a few waves of variants spreading worldwide and new vaccines falling behind the curve until we reach a certain equilibrium. It's possible that not all of us will still be here if and when it ends - to be honest I think it will become more like the flu eventually, taking out a smaller segment of the population but requiring at least one new vaccine annually.

 

I do hope that I am completely wrong and I am not saying that this is what WILL happen but rather, what COULD happen.

[Anderton]

I'm less optimistic about the next 12 months. Without getting political, history does show us that some things don't always go according to projections.

The current situation in India with CV_19 is dire and escalating. Viruses being versatile little beasts and this particular strain being fairly new in terms of human research and human resistance, I suspect we may see a few waves of variants spreading worldwide and new vaccines falling behind the curve until we reach a certain equilibrium. It's possible that not all of us will still be here if and when it ends - to be honest I think it will become more like the flu eventually, taking out a smaller segment of the population but requiring at least one new vaccine annually.

 

I think the odds are pretty good that matters will play out according to your scenario, primarily because the whole world isn't getting vaccinated yet, and the resistance of some people in the US to get the vaccine (and I always thought Americans LIKED free stuff!). However, I do hope the next 12 months will not be like the last 12 months, and least with respect to pro audio.

[Chip McDonald]

I think we're in the last lull with the virus we're going to have, thanks to mutations and the lack of vaccinations.

 

You're more optimistic than me about people adopting "new technology". People are eager to accept new technology *only when it will allow them to be lazier*.

 

I used voice commands on my phone - at least until Google screwed it up about a year ago. I went years without actually touching my phone to make a call, or to search and play music. But at the same time, while I'm pretty sure I could have rigged Reaper to do a lot of things by voice command, it's just easier/lazier to click a button. Trying to *formulate a proper command": "turn on solo on track 14, then play" over and over, instead of clicking a button is effectively "un-short cutting" the macro action of the button. "Advances in laziness wins".

 

I've actually made $400 on an initial $80 BTC "peasant investment", and just recent $100 on $10 worth of Dogecoin. As more vendors start accepting Doge - as I'm going to with guitar lessons - it will sky rocket, but the complexity of schemes to make your own coin, and to try to get fans/clients involved won't work because... it requires effort.

 

Tutoring people through DAWs, and now trying to get students to use Facetime, Skype or Zoom has been an enlightening experience. Facetime wins, because it's the simplest of the 3. And I've had amazing technical difficulty with students that are *professionals in it* that can't get around their computer, or do basic troubleshooting; Training makes the Modern Populace seem more apt to take on tech advances, but the training creates an illusion: the training is just laziness in slow motion. It doesn't supplant intelligence or more importantly, *curiosity*.

 

People that use tech routinely doesn't mean they have the initial drive, curiousness, to learn something new. They've been trained, or had to acquire skills professionally due to a job. New technology will only be adopted if it allows the user to be lazier in some aspect. Intellectual curiosity to match intellect itself is skill a very scarce phenomenon I think.

 

Which leads back to vaccines: it's got to be made easier. We need "ice cream truck" vaccinations, door to door vaccinators. Some people will get vaccinated but are too lazy to bother.

[Anderton]

I think we're in the last lull with the virus we're going to have, thanks to mutations and the lack of vaccinations.

 

I sure hope you're wrong, but I even wonder if there will be a resolution, or whether it will be like catching quicksilver.

 

You're more optimistic than me about people adopting "new technology". People are eager to accept new technology *only when it will allow them to be lazier*.

 

For me, adopting new technology is more about being able to do more things at the same time. Consider voice commands as potential macros. Of course, you could also make a macro, but then your hands are back to the keys. Think of all the times you're editing something, and you need to zoom out or zoom in. You could stay focused on the editing if you could just say "zoom in" or "zoom out." I had voice commands working on an Atari 104ST (!) and found it useful, even though speech recognition isn't where it is today. And I rarely using the iPhone keyboard anymore, it's easier just to speak into it. It may be my imagination, but I think the recognition is improving - I've having to make fewer fixes all the time.

 

I've actually made $400 on an initial $80 BTC "peasant investment", and just recent $100 on $10 worth of Dogecoin.

 

By the time I get around to these things, it's too late...everyone else has skimmed off the top. But I have no idea where crypto currencies are going. It could get really weird to have a central banking system collapse in some countries, but not others.

 

The complexity of schemes to make your own coin, and to try to get fans/clients involved won't work because... it requires effort.

 

Granted, it's not a DIY project. But we'll need new jobs as more people are displaced. A ton of people hire their own web developers. Creating a crypto currency takes more effort than designing a web site, but I still think you'll be able to hire people to do the hard work for you.

 

People that use tech routinely doesn't mean they have the initial drive, curiousness, to learn something new.

 

This is true, but at least the tools are available for those who do want to learn something new. I came up with a new preset for the Helix a few minutes ago that I don't think could be done with any other effects processor, and I learned something along the way. Then again, I like to learn. That may not be a shared trait with the majority of people.

 

Some people will get vaccinated but are too lazy to bother.

 

Which is mind-boggling...drive someplace, spend 45 minutes, and you probably won't get such a bad case you'll die. Seems like a decent incentive to get off one's butt

[RABid]

....

The complexity of schemes to make your own coin, and to try to get fans/clients involved won't work because... it requires effort.

 

Some people will get vaccinated but are too lazy to bother.

 

Which is mind-boggling...drive someplace, spend 45 minutes, and you probably won't get such a bad case you'll die. Seems like a decent incentive to get off one's butt

 

Not surprising at all. In my small town my bank had to close a couple of branch offices because so many workers have chosen to draw unemployment rather than working. Friends who go to Gatlenburgh come back talking about how many restaurants are take out only because they cannot find waitresses willing to work. People want easy money and no responsibility, including not taking a chance on feeling bad for a few days from a vaccine.

[Anderton]

People want easy money and no responsibility.

 

True, but not everyone can run for office

 

I wonder if not finding waitresses is because of covid concerns or because they can draw unemployment. I have a friend with diabetes who did the whole Uber/gig economy thing, but stopped when the pandemic hit for the obvious reasons. She drew unemployment, but really missed the social aspect of dealing with people. She finally was able to get vaccinated, and immediately thereafter, got a full-time gig.

[RABid]

From the people I have talked to, it is because then CAN draw. The problem is magnified by the system. Employers can put in against an employee getting unemployment. If the job is available and they can work, their claim fails and they don't get unemployment. They work instead. But, if you run a restaurant, would you want a waitress that knows you turned him/her in against unemployment handling your food. If you are a banker do you want a teller that you turned in handling money and accounts? In Kentucky it was found that state workers were taking advantage of relaxed guidelines and collecting unemployment

[Chip McDonald]

...

and... the website barfed on my post, "Securi" protection activated?

 

EDIT

 

Blah blah blah voice recognition perfected by Google but walked back for some reason, blah blah, trained populace in the West creating an illusion of an "intellectual" society that aren't able to reason through the logic of getting vaccinated.... blah blah... 7 cases of triple-mutant vaccine escaping India strain reported in the U.S. last week, which puts us in the same predicament we were in at the start of January 2020 with a few cases in Washington state blah blah.. hopefully I'm wrong and there will be some residual lower viral load with the vaccines and some smart people still wearing masks/distancing despite "reopening"... blah blah...

 

/ must learn to write in a separate editor and copy/paste

[Anderton]

...

and... the website barfed on my post.

 

Everyone's a critic

[Chip McDonald]

. Friends who go to Gatlenburgh come back talking about how many restaurants are take out only because they cannot find waitresses willing to work. People want easy money and no responsibility, including not taking a chance on feeling bad for a few days from a vaccine.

 

 

Waitresses are putting themselves into a dangerous situation with a lot of people in a room, AND taking their masks off to eat. They should be getting hazard pay. Being vaccinated doesn't mean they're safe, just *safer*.

[David Emm]

Concise and excellent, Craig, but now I feel a bit like Alex in "A Clockwork Orange," strapped to a chair, screaming. I don't think my vintage meatware can handle another upgrade of that enormity. I'd need a William Gibson port in my neck to even try. It took an Olympic-sized pool of sweat equity for me to finally got a modestly workable grasp on Logic Pro. Now all of this? Leave an old fart on the back porch with his chosen DAW, will you?

 

Oh, before you go, tell me of the plug-in that will auto-magically batch-process all of my crap to -14 LUFS. Thanks!

[Doerfler]

. Friends who go to Gatlenburgh come back talking about how many restaurants are take out only because they cannot find waitresses willing to work. People want easy money and no responsibility, including not taking a chance on feeling bad for a few days from a vaccine.

 

Waitresses are putting themselves into a dangerous situation with a lot of people in a room, AND taking their masks off to eat. They should be getting hazard pay. Being vaccinated doesn't mean they're safe, just *safer*.

 

In addition, they have to be "mask police" in general. So they ask people to wear masks, and then they don't get tipped.

[Anderton]

Oh, before you go, tell me of the plug-in that will auto-magically batch-process all of my crap to -14 LUFS. Thanks!

 

It won't batch process, but iZotope Ozone can make sure stuff hits a particular target level. But you don't need to have everything at -14 LUFS. Compression or limiting can add character to a song, a lot of times my mixes will clock in at -11 or -12. If I send that off to YouTube, they'll just turn the volume down so it hits their standard. I don't have to worry about it.

 

The best part about LUFS is if I'm working with something where I want decent dynamic range and the mix comes out at -14 LUFS, I don't have to worry about it sounding weak and pitiful if it's played back-to-back with loudness war fans. We'll all have the same perceived volume. It's a beautiful thing, especially if you do any jazz or classical work

[Chip McDonald]

 

In addition, they have to be "mask police" in general. So they ask people to wear masks, and then they don't get tipped.

 

Front line EMS, cashiers, waitresses and teachers are asked to be put into hazardous conditions, but without hazard pay. Nobless oblige applies; people "higher up" have gotten rewards for creating a situation where these people MUST do this, but they've ignored compensating them.

 

My wife HAD to work in a non-front line job, but a technical situation where she couldn't lock down. People don't remember, but maybe for a week or so the topic of hazard pay was a national discussion - but they tamped that down real quick. And becauset of course no politician aside from Jacinda Ahearn had the spine to implement real proactive measures, to LEAD, these Karen encounters keep happening to people like waiters/waitresses. It's ridiculous.

[KuruPrionz]

 

In addition, they have to be "mask police" in general. So they ask people to wear masks, and then they don't get tipped.

 

Front line EMS, cashiers, waitresses and teachers are asked to be put into hazardous conditions, but without hazard pay. Nobless oblige applies; people "higher up" have gotten rewards for creating a situation where these people MUST do this, but they've ignored compensating them.

 

My wife HAD to work in a non-front line job, but a technical situation where she couldn't lock down. People don't remember, but maybe for a week or so the topic of hazard pay was a national discussion - but they tamped that down real quick. And becauset of course no politician aside from Jacinda Ahearn had the spine to implement real proactive measures, to LEAD, these Karen encounters keep happening to people like waiters/waitresses. It's ridiculous.

 

I agree completely. You couldn't pay me enough to even go into some places, let alone put in 40 hours. I've been working remotely from home for months, my boss understands this situation and cares about his employees so he bought me a laptop and iPhone and I work in a quiet, safe (I live alone) environment.