BiC Posted August 6, 2004 Share Posted August 6, 2004 If you're like me, and invested in the US Stock Market, you can feel my pain. When are we finally going to see green?!? "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cosmo115 Posted August 6, 2004 Share Posted August 6, 2004 When Billster finishes making that pesto?? The trick is not to watch the market every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billster Posted August 6, 2004 Share Posted August 6, 2004 Originally posted by cosmo115: When Billster finishes making that pesto?? The trick is not to watch the market every day Correct on both counts. Buy my CD on CD Baby! Bill Hartzell - the website MySpace?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BiC Posted August 6, 2004 Author Share Posted August 6, 2004 Originally posted by cosmo115: When Billster finishes making that pesto?? The trick is not to watch the market every day True True... but I have to keep an eye on my investments and decide which funds to move them in and out of as the market fluctuates. Some days are good, some are bad. But the past couple weeks have been terrible! Oh well, we'll see what Monday brings. "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Gug Posted August 7, 2004 Share Posted August 7, 2004 BiC, the ideal is to have the market low, you buy into it for the whole time and the day before you retire, it SHOOTS thru the roof! Buy low! Buy now! Don't watch everyday, but keep the market on your radar... Mikegug www.facebook.com/theresistancemusic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philip OKeefe Posted August 7, 2004 Share Posted August 7, 2004 If it's not at the bottom, IMO, it's close. By the end of next week it should be back on the upswing... baring any terrorism incidents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James-Italy Posted August 7, 2004 Share Posted August 7, 2004 Hmmm.... strange topic for a guitar forum, but one that I can't help but reply to. I guess I'm what you'd call an expert- 18 years as an institutional stock broker dealing in US, global, German, Pan-European, and finally Italian equities. I've been lucky over the years and am now retired at 39. I start out with that so maybe you will believe me when I tell you "NO ONE HAS A FRICKING CLUE!" about where the market is going, Monday, next week, next month, or in the next ten years. I've worked with some of the biggest names over the years and while some have been right more often than they were wrong, no one knows for sure. Investing in the stock market is a tough game, you are playing against some of the smartest minds in the world. I think it's a fallacy to believe that stocks will return 8-10% over the "long-term". I can't think of one stock that I'd buy now if I had to hold it more than a few minutes, the market is about as over-valued as I've ever seen it, probably more so even than it was in 2000. I've had all my money in cash since 1999 and when I say cash I mean either in cash in a safety deposit box or in money markets. I see no reason to buy anything here. I do trade every day though and that allows me to supplement the meager returns on the money markets. I'm technically what you'd call a "scalper" and I short shares as often as I buy them. As a scalper though, I never finish the day with positions. I'm flat every night. Too many people have a blind faith that stocks are the best place to have their money. I don't give specific advice to friends or relatives, just general food for thought, and in that vein, I'd suggest that anyone with debts and investments consider selling their stocks/mutual funds and paying down their debt. Hoping for a return of 10% from the stock market while paying a sure 6-7-8-9-10-12% interest on debt doesn't make much sense to me. I think the US has over-leveraged itself to the point of potential disaster. IMHO, there's about a 75% chance that we enter into the worst economic times since the 1930's. I'm afraid that the markets could be heading much much lower. How I hope I'm wrong.... Bic, to specifically answer your question- the US markets have broken down technically and made new lows on the year yesterday (Friday 6th), this triggered sell programs from the major institutions. We could see some follow through on the downside the next few days. The majority of people still remain positive (a bad sign) and the VIX index is nowhere near a point which would imply a market bottom. I'd be inclined to sell into any rallies as opposed to buying on the dips. IMO there is a good chance we will see a lot more red before any green. But remember, as I said earlier, I have no fricking clue..... just making an educated guess. I hope for your sake and others invested I'm wrong. My Gear My Attempts at Music Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BiC Posted August 7, 2004 Author Share Posted August 7, 2004 Originally posted by Philip O'Keefe: If it's not at the bottom, IMO, it's close. By the end of next week it should be back on the upswing... baring any terrorism incidents. I'm hearing it may hit bottom by the end of next week. "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BiC Posted August 7, 2004 Author Share Posted August 7, 2004 Originally posted by Mike Gug: BiC, the ideal is to have the market low, you buy into it for the whole time and the day before you retire, it SHOOTS thru the roof! Buy low! Buy now! Don't watch everyday, but keep the market on your radar...I am POISED to buy low! "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BiC Posted August 7, 2004 Author Share Posted August 7, 2004 Thank you for your comments James! I am currently invested in WMT & HD. I also have a military equivelant to the 401K called the - Thrift Savings Plans (TSP), which I manage and decide how to invest across the board. Here is the forum that I frequent regularly put together by an individual investor that is specifically geared toward the TSP, although it is not directly affiliated with tsp.gov (the official site): www.tsptalk.com Click on the message board in the upper right to check out the dicussions. "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darklava Posted August 7, 2004 Share Posted August 7, 2004 Originally posted by James-Italy: Hmmm.... strange topic for a guitar forum, but one that I can't help but reply to. I guess I'm what you'd call an expert- 18 years as an institutional stock broker dealing in US, global, German, Pan-European, and finally Italian equities. I've been lucky over the years and am now retired at 39. I start out with that so maybe you will believe me when I tell you "NO ONE HAS A FRICKING CLUE!" about where the market is going, Monday, next week, next month, or in the next ten years. I've worked with some of the biggest names over the years and while some have been right more often than they were wrong, no one knows for sure. Investing in the stock market is a tough game, you are playing against some of the smartest minds in the world. I think it's a fallacy to believe that stocks will return 8-10% over the "long-term". I can't think of one stock that I'd buy now if I had to hold it more than a few minutes, the market is about as over-valued as I've ever seen it, probably more so even than it was in 2000. I've had all my money in cash since 1999 and when I say cash I mean either in cash in a safety deposit box or in money markets. I see no reason to buy anything here. I do trade every day though and that allows me to supplement the meager returns on the money markets. I'm technically what you'd call a "scalper" and I short shares as often as I buy them. As a scalper though, I never finish the day with positions. I'm flat every night. Too many people have a blind faith that stocks are the best place to have their money. I don't give specific advice to friends or relatives, just general food for thought, and in that vein, I'd suggest that anyone with debts and investments consider selling their stocks/mutual funds and paying down their debt. Hoping for a return of 10% from the stock market while paying a sure 6-7-8-9-10-12% interest on debt doesn't make much sense to me. I think the US has over-leveraged itself to the point of potential disaster. IMHO, there's about a 75% chance that we enter into the worst economic times since the 1930's. I'm afraid that the markets could be heading much much lower. How I hope I'm wrong.... Bic, to specifically answer your question- the US markets have broken down technically and made new lows on the year yesterday (Friday 6th), this triggered sell programs from the major institutions. We could see some follow through on the downside the next few days. The majority of people still remain positive (a bad sign) and the VIX index is nowhere near a point which would imply a market bottom. I'd be inclined to sell into any rallies as opposed to buying on the dips. IMO there is a good chance we will see a lot more red before any green. But remember, as I said earlier, I have no fricking clue..... just making an educated guess. I hope for your sake and others invested I'm wrong.Ok! so can you recomand a high building to jump off of? The story of life is quicker then the blink of an eye, the story of love is hello, goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BiC Posted August 10, 2004 Author Share Posted August 10, 2004 Ahhhhh.... Much better day on "The Street"! "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billster Posted August 10, 2004 Share Posted August 10, 2004 Originally posted by BiC: Ahhhhh.... Much better day on "The Street"! As they say, if you don't like the weather, just wait a minute. Buy my CD on CD Baby! Bill Hartzell - the website MySpace?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bbach1 Posted August 10, 2004 Share Posted August 10, 2004 Originally posted by James-Italy: [QB]I've had all my money in cash since 1999 and when I say cash I mean either in cash in a safety deposit box or in money markets. [QB] Aren't money markets tied directily to the stock market? I went to a financial advisor a few years ago and I told him that I did not feel comfortable having my retirement plan dependent on the stock market. I told him I was willing to take a lower return in exchange for some guarantees. He came unglued. At that point I quit listening so I don't really know why he was upset. Something about the fact that I'll be broke when I retire and I'll have to walk around downtown reading National Geographic. (What's wrong with National Geographic?). Anyway, I went to a different advisor and set up a Roth IRA, but I still don't feel comfortable with my retirement tied to the stock market. bbach Beauty is in the eye of the beer holder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guitar Geezer Posted August 10, 2004 Share Posted August 10, 2004 CWFNO...you just wasn't buying into what he wanted to sell Lynn G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billster Posted August 11, 2004 Share Posted August 11, 2004 cwfno - Don't take this wrong. Your (former) adviser failed to explain the different types of risk. You are concerned about market risk - the market will not return enough or is too unstable. If you go to the money markets for safety, you face a risk that the returns, while safe, will not keep pace with inflation. Go here and study up Opinions are my own and do not reflect endorsement of the music player web host. Buy my CD on CD Baby! Bill Hartzell - the website MySpace?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BiC Posted August 11, 2004 Author Share Posted August 11, 2004 Originally posted by cwfno: Aren't money markets tied directily to the stock market? ______________________________ Money Market savings accounts are not. But, Money Market mutual funds are. "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shoes Posted August 11, 2004 Share Posted August 11, 2004 When the market and the economy are drifting between low gear and neutral, as it's been lately, it't a good time to take the advice of one Mark Twain... "Buy land. They've stopped making it". Money's never been so cheap and land deals, true deals that is, will yield a solid return for your retirement. IMO I still think guitars are like shoes, but louder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zeronyne Posted August 11, 2004 Share Posted August 11, 2004 Heh, I've been shorting everything for two years...made a killing(This is not boasting...if it wasn't for my broker, I'd be in the poorhouse). But Phil is right, I've just cleared the books to start buying again soon. "For instance" is not proof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shredmasta666 Posted August 12, 2004 Share Posted August 12, 2004 how old do you have to be to invest in the stock market? I swear to drunk I'm not god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BiC Posted August 12, 2004 Author Share Posted August 12, 2004 Originally posted by shredmasta666: how old do you have to be to invest in the stock market?I believe it's 18. But, don't quote me on that. "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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