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NAMM... Predictions / Bets on new boards ???


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My first thought after seeing post pop up about NAMM was,... wow, wasnt winter NAMM 05 like just a couple of months ago ??? man time flies....

 

Anyways, it seems only yesterday (only it was a year ago) that there was alot of debate that Yamaha would be retiring the ES8 and finally bringing out a new workstation. Though here we are a year later, and the Motif lives on.....

 

Hmm, lets see, orginal Motif released in 01, three years later the souped-up repackaged ES vesion was released in 03, and now its three years later...

 

On one hand its a tough call with the S90ES and MO6/8 still being so new, however the full blown flagship workstation ES8 is getting old, prices have dropped, which means sales must be dropping,...

 

Also, I think alot of people are buying Fantoms over Motif's now, being its 'newer', more user friendly, and expandability via SRX. So If I was the head cheese at Yamaha Id say its time for a new flagship workstation.... Which I am hoping for ...

 

The Motif line was such a HUGE hit for Yamaha, that it seems they'll have to come out with quite a powerfull workstation so as to not dissapoint.... unless they just 'repackage' the Motif once agian.... could they get away with that ???

 

on to Roland... Fantom X/a / 700sx still to new... also several other new releases so I doubt any new boards from them.....

 

Korg, I think everyone agrees its time Korg retires the Triton,....

 

Based on my quick search, the first Triton appeared in 1999, which was of course a souped-up repackaged Trinity which was born in the early-mid 90's,... so ya, I think its safe to say its time for a new workstation from Korg.

 

As far as Kurz and Gem and Kawai,... although I do have an interest in all three of these, unfortunatly I am a victim of geographic deprivation. I dont invest as much time researching these three (though I do a bit) because I can NEVER find any of these to try out anyways...

 

Whats up with the marketing division of Kurz, GEM and Kawai,... why the heck is it so hard to find any of these...

 

....any inside info on new releases, anyone ???

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My 2 cents...

 

Yamaha will release a workstation based around a PC-like infrastructure. As Yamaha acquired Steinberg over 2 years it seems probable (wishful!?) that a workstation based around Cubase and VST in a custom Linux OS would be the way to go. I'd also imagine VSTs of the MOtif, VL and DX/SY/EX to be in there...

 

wishful...?

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Well, Roland has quietly issued a version 3 OS for the G-70 keyboard. Members of the G-70 forum are downloading the OS and working out the kinks of loading it. I think Roland is using this opportunity to work on software that could end up on the next generation arranger. I have not had the chance to test it out much, but the report is that the EQ effects on the Styles have been refined.
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Not wanting to rain on anyone's parade, but there's also the chance that NAMM brings no real novelty, yielding instead the long-awaited revisions of the Motif's User Interface, mending of the Fantom's alleged problems with importing some sample formats, etc.

 

Given the fact that there seem to be no revolutionary new technology easily applicable to workstations, and also that the market reacted very well to both the Yamaha's ES version and Roland's X version, another rehash would not surprise me.

 

Of course I have my fingers crossed for something better than that :P

"I'm ready to sing to the world. If you back me up". (Lennon to his bandmates, in an inspired definition of what it's all about).
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Originally posted by orangefunk:

My 2 cents...

 

Yamaha will release a workstation based around a PC-like infrastructure. As Yamaha acquired Steinberg over 2 years it seems probable (wishful!?) that a workstation based around Cubase and VST in a custom Linux OS would be the way to go. I'd also imagine VSTs of the MOtif, VL and DX/SY/EX to be in there...

 

wishful...?

Hmm... the whole point of a custom system to me is to *avoid* the general purpose stuff. That's exactly the sort of thing I don't wish for; besides, a workstation should "just work" and provide fairly guaranteed polyphony, latency, etc. all of which are impossible to control with anyone writing plug-ins.

 

But I do hope they move towards an "OASYS" type platform where things are a lot more malleable with software (rather than using custom chips with a lot of stuff 'hard-wired'.)

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yamaha will come up with something that sucks meanwhile roland will release another crappy product with a terrible interface... GEM will release a product that no one can test since they have zero presence in the US. Meanwhile keyboard magazine will write a terrible one page review that fawns over all of these products for the sake of dvertising revenue..

 

 

 

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yamaha will come up with something that sucks meanwhile roland will release another crappy product with a terrible interface... GEM will release a product that no one can test since they have zero presence in the US. Meanwhile keyboard magazine will write a terrible one page review that fawns over all of these products for the sake of advertising revenue..

 

 

 

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I would think it's time for Apple to come up with a fairly major update to Logic. Maybe GB as well.

 

Digidesign will be demoing 7.3. A sampler from the AIR group is rumored. I personally don't see a need for it, but some PT users aren't satisified with the current crop and their integration.

 

Spectrasonics needs to announce something significant. They've been coasting for some time.

 

Busch.

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Originally posted by Andre Lower:

Not wanting to rain on anyone's parade, but there's also the chance that NAMM brings no real novelty,

Most likely, but that's just not as fun, is it now?

 

I want an 88 key non piano weighted Triton Extreme :D

"...Keytar in a heavy metal band is nothing more than window dressing" - Sven Golly

 

Cursed Eternity - My Band

Dick Ward - My Me

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Muse Receptor keyboard the size and weight of a Nord Electro or Korg X5D.

 

Oh yeah, and 88 and 76 weighted action versions with Yamaha action no larger or heavier than those Casio pianos.

:D

"It is a danger to create something and risk rejection. It is a greater danger to create nothing and allow mediocrity to rule."

"You owe it to us all to get on with what you're good at." W.H. Auden

 

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I agree that it is time for Spectrasonics to come out with a fourth instrument and not just more RMX expansion packs.

 

Price drops are a good indication of imminant releases and Yamaha, Korg and Roland high end workstations are being found for good prices. At least one of them will release a new workstation. I expect Yamaha to update the interface and increase integration with DAW's. The question is how much will be Cubase specific. I expect Korg to release a new rack.

 

More companies will announce hardware with VSTi interfaces.

 

One company, which I will not name, will probably announce about 20 products and this time next year we will still be waiting for most of them.

This post edited for speling.

My Sweetwater Gear Exchange Page

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Does anyone know when is NAAM starting? I'm far and away, and do not know.

 

Robert, regarding the "20 new product company" you've got most of us wondering whether it's Alesis or Kurzweil :D ...

"I'm ready to sing to the world. If you back me up". (Lennon to his bandmates, in an inspired definition of what it's all about).
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Originally posted by GregC:

oh c'mon

 

be a man and workout on a weighed keyboard

Hey I stand by it. I play a piano patch for about 30 seconds. I play strings, synth lead, etc.. the rest of the time. I'm a keyboard player, not a piano player. I like keyboards that feel like keyboards :P

"...Keytar in a heavy metal band is nothing more than window dressing" - Sven Golly

 

Cursed Eternity - My Band

Dick Ward - My Me

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Originally posted by soundscape:

Originally posted by orangefunk:

My 2 cents...

 

Yamaha will release a workstation based around a PC-like infrastructure. As Yamaha acquired Steinberg over 2 years it seems probable (wishful!?) that a workstation based around Cubase and VST in a custom Linux OS would be the way to go. I'd also imagine VSTs of the MOtif, VL and DX/SY/EX to be in there...

 

wishful...?

Hmm... the whole point of a custom system to me is to *avoid* the general purpose stuff. That's exactly the sort of thing I don't wish for; besides, a workstation should "just work" and provide fairly guaranteed polyphony, latency, etc. all of which are impossible to control with anyone writing plug-ins.

 

But I do hope they move towards an "OASYS" type platform where things are a lot more malleable with software (rather than using custom chips with a lot of stuff 'hard-wired'.)

I agree... I doubt they'd base something around Windows XP but they'd probably need to leverage an existing OS like Linux so that they can get access to low level PC hardware without having to create their own OS. So something like the OASYS but with Cubase and VSTi capability... although saying that I doubt VSTs that we currently use would be compatible.. we'd probably be stuck with Yamahas own...
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Originally posted by orangefunk:

Originally posted by soundscape:

Originally posted by orangefunk:

My 2 cents...

 

Yamaha will release a workstation based around a PC-like infrastructure. As Yamaha acquired Steinberg over 2 years it seems probable (wishful!?) that a workstation based around Cubase and VST in a custom Linux OS would be the way to go. I'd also imagine VSTs of the MOtif, VL and DX/SY/EX to be in there...

 

wishful...?

Hmm... the whole point of a custom system to me is to *avoid* the general purpose stuff. That's exactly the sort of thing I don't wish for; besides, a workstation should "just work" and provide fairly guaranteed polyphony, latency, etc. all of which are impossible to control with anyone writing plug-ins.

 

But I do hope they move towards an "OASYS" type platform where things are a lot more malleable with software (rather than using custom chips with a lot of stuff 'hard-wired'.)

I agree... I doubt they'd base something around Windows XP but they'd probably need to leverage an existing OS like Linux so that they can get access to low level PC hardware without having to create their own OS. So something like the OASYS but with Cubase and VSTi capability... although saying that I doubt VSTs that we currently use would be compatible.. we'd probably be stuck with Yamahas own...
Yamaha has a whole lot of catching up to do in this area. Their computer-based editors are a mixed bag. You can do some things but not others. The editors for the PLG cards are worse. Very poor integration. To make matters worse the Yamaha editors have some of the ugliest user interfaces, which doesn't inspire confidence. The mLAN stuff is pretty much dead, as I understand it.

 

Roland, by contrast, has excellent editors for both OSX and Windows. Good driver support. And now hardware synths showing up as VSTis. Korg too has done a much better job with their line of soft synths and now hardware/VSTis and editors.

 

If the OASYS had been a big sales hit, then undoubtedly Yamaha and Roland would follow along with similar products. As it stands, I think they're probably OK with leaving this turf to Korg.

 

Busch.

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Originally posted by burningbusch:

If the OASYS had been a big sales hit, then undoubtedly Yamaha and Roland would follow along with similar products. As it stands, I think they're probably OK with leaving this turf to Korg.

Busch.

I think Korg has been very pleased with OASYS sales so far. Given an OASYS costs $8,000 or $8,500, Korg doesn't expect "Triton-level" sales volumes.

 

Over at the Karma Lab forum there is a thread where owners can post their OASYS serial numbers. Based on that info alone, Korg has manufactured at least 2,364 OASYS keyboards to date (which would represent over U.S. $19 million in global OASYS retail sales).

http://www.karma-lab.com/forum/showthread.php?s=6d4f352e1b69056a6c064221051ab35a&threadid=6456

 

Eventually, I expect Yamaha and Roland to produce workstations powered by PC processors. A company could produce a less expensive keyboard if you eliminated some of the more expensive components (smaller screen, cheaper converters, etc.).

 

While I don't expect it at this year's Winter NAMM, I suspect Korg will eventually release something less expensive based on the OASYS technology. Korg are masters of "re-use" (some people use the unflattering term "re-cycle"); once they have invested money in R&D, they have a history of trying to leverage the R&D across multiple products (not just keyboards).

 

 

P.S. -- Winter NAMM is January 18-21, 2007:

http://www.thenammshow.com/

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Now would be a perfect time for Yamaha to leak some info about its new Motif ES successor. Having said that, they probably won't just to spite me. :D lol

 

NAMM is over two months away and rousing us from our stupor with a good shot in the arm of adrenaline by announcing the looonnngggg awaited replacement to the Motif ES would certainly excite keyboardists worldwide. The Motif ES is/was a good solid Workstation but it was/is lacking in a few areas that need to be addressed. I won't go into specifics because I think most folks know what they are.

 

I think Yamaha may have been stalled from releasing a successor already because Korg threw a monkey wrench into the works with the release of the OASYS. Possibly Yamaha wanted to counter the OASYS with a more extreme high-end offering than they were originally intending and because of it they have had to subsequently extend the time frame of its release.

 

What will set Yamaha's apart from the Korg OASYS in my opinion will be its exceptionally competitive price compared to the OASYS. More in the neighborhood of $5,000 MSRP for the 88 key version. Which would make the price on the street about $4,200 or so. >> My personal opinion about the MSRP and street price mind you. ;) But if it is correct then Korg will either have to lower the OASYS's price substantially or face losing substantial revenue on future lost sales of the OASYS.

 

Whether or not we'll see the Motif ES successor at Winter NAMM 2007 has yet to be determined but whether then or a year from then it WILL happen. But, in my opinion, the longer Yamaha delays its release the more time it allows other keyboard manufacturers to step up to the plate and introduce their new offerings with the potential of gaining marketshare while Yamaha's starts to see theirs drop. Ya' got to stay in the game, or if not, then - "you snooze you WILL lose".

 

But it's all good because competition is what sparks innovation and likewise innovation that drives the market and keeps us, the consumer, ultimately happy and consequently willing to divest of our hard earned money on their products.

 

Korg may release a slimmed down OASYS at NAMM, which in my opinion would be the proverbial long awaited Triton replacement. It makes sense for Korg to use the High Def(HD) OASYS engine (or at least to some degree) on its new Triton successor. It is Korg's latest/greatest synthesis engine and since the Triton, according to Korg, is supposedly now dead with its HI synthesis engine along with it??? :confused: , then there is really no other alternative right? Unless Korg has something up its sleeve in the way of another new type of synthesis engine besides the HD engine. Which I find highly unlikely btw.

 

GEM who??? :D

 

Kurzweil will no doubt showcase the new PC1se at NAMM but with their currently limited resources and the restructuring of their business I don't expect much else from them at Winter NAMM in the way of a Workstation.

 

Roland may surprise us. They're doling out peanuts with the likes of the Juno-G, SH-201 - (which is a great little Synth at a great price btw), and the VP-550, so something substantial in the way of high-end may be in the wings and waiting to be revealed. They have released a new high-end Arranger called the E-80 for us Arranger enthusiasts and it will no doubt be showcased at NAMM. But a new Workstation? Maybe, but don't count on it since Roland has not reduced the Fantom X price at all which is usually a telltale sign that something is brewing from a manufacturer when all of a sudden it makes a drastic drop in price on a current line (which in Roland's case it hasn't ;) ).

 

Who else... Alesis? I heard they were going to release a 'version 2' of the Fusion. But recent talk from their staff has me wondering if we'll see anything new from them in the near future in the way of a new Workstation. PS: With all the bugs in the Fusion you would think Alesis would be bending over backwards to expedite a release of a version 2, or whatever, of the Fusion to correct its obvious flaws and regain respect in the publics eye after their dismal first attempt to create a worthy Workstation offering.

 

I have to hand it to them though, in that they were willing to take a bold step and try something new and actually produce their first Workstation keyboard.

 

As the saying goes: "if at first you don't succeed, try try again"... :cool:

Mike
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Originally posted by soundscape:

It's gotta be time for the successor to 'Atmosphere'. They licensed filters from G-Media for Stylus RMX and Glenn Olander works for them (programmer of Crystal)... so who knows what's next?

I would love to see this but I have to admit I am still loving Atmosphere an awful lot!!

Begin the day with a friendly voice A companion, unobtrusive

- Rush

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Originally posted by burningbusch:

 

If the OASYS had been a big sales hit, then undoubtedly Yamaha and Roland would follow along with similar products. As it stands, I think they're probably OK with leaving this turf to Korg.

 

Busch. [/QB]

I think this Namm will tell us alot. If you don't see anything from Yamaha and Roland to counter it, I think you'll be right. I do agree that the Oasys didn't have the market splash Korg had hoped. For the $, I believe alot of people feel its overpriced. That's not to take anything away from the Oasys and Korg for at least having teh Cojones to do this. Personally I would love to have an Oasys but my bank account never seems to have enough money in it ;)

Begin the day with a friendly voice A companion, unobtrusive

- Rush

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Originally posted by Silver Dragon Sound:

I do agree that the Oasys didn't have the market splash Korg had hoped.

I am not sure why you would reach that conclusion.

 

A standard economic "demand curve" would tell you the market for an $8,000 product (number of customers willing to buy) is a lot less than the market for a $3,500 product.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/economics/economics3.asp

The law of demand states that, if all other factors remain equal, the higher the price of a good, the less people will demand that good. In other words, the higher the price, the lower the quantity demanded.

 

As a result, people will naturally avoid buying a product that will force them to forgo the consumption of something else they value more.

Originally posted by Silver Dragon Sound:

For the $, I believe alot of people feel its overpriced.

This is true, and is very typical of comparatively expensive items. The converse is also true -- comparatively low cost items are often seen as great values.

 

As an example, many people feel the less expensive M-Audio Project Mix I/O ($1,250) is a better value than its counterpart, the more expensive ProTools Digi 002 Factory ($2,200) both of which are created by companies owned by Avid. I suspect the relative sales volumes of these two products would align to a typical demand curve.

 

In another example, I assume Yamaha sells a significantly larger volume of their Clavinova Home pianos than they do their Acoustic Concert Grand pianos (C7 and CFIIIS).

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It would be very cool if Spectrasonics came out with a drum engine specificly designed for _human_ drums. That's the one area where RMX is weak. Between EZ Drummer, Battery 3 and some of the others, this seems to be the year that very realistic, human sounding drum plugins are really coming into their own.
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I don't know if OASYS sales met or exceeded Korg's expectations. The fact that the user community is out there wondering how many units there are, and actually tracking serial numbers demonstrates to me that these are fairly rare birds. I said "big sales hit" which is very different from exceeding modest sales projections. As it stands now, Korg has pretty much established that there is limited demand for high-end workstations. And the $8,500 price tag, taking inflation into account, is cheap compared to what people were paying for synths in the 1970s and 1980s.

 

IF, Yamaha and/or Roland, truly believe the OASYS type technology is what they will be moving to in future synths, THEN it makes sense. But that's not a given by any means.

 

Busch.

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"I Predict"

 

I predict somebody will market a double keyboard controller with a lower 88 note weighted action keyboard and an upper 61 note organ keyboard with built in midi cc controller drawbars to connect to B4, Voce, Nord etc etc.. ...both controllers will be held in the same chassis with a full compliment of midi control capabilities. It will weigh under 49 lbs and will be the same size as a CP300 aprox. . . . .

 

It will be named the LatchMaster Mo-Funk 8861 after it's designer who resides somwhere in the French countryside with a single name only mystique -- simply called Latchmo! (sounds like Harpo!)

 

I predict every one will be interested in this

new exciting piece of gear except for Sven Golly, who will spit on it in disdain as he walks across the floor at NAMM calling it a rediculous monstrosity and will walk vigoursly to the Yamaha booth, sit down on a S90ES, and play a note for note rendition of the intro to 'Chestfever' for the up coming "The Band - Music from Big Pink" album tour. He will actually do this dressed as Garth Hundson, in full gray beard regalia wearing a greasy curduroy flannel shirt and not using a Leslie of any kind! People will be amazed!

 

The Mo-Funk will sell like hot cakes!

 

This is what "I Predict". . .

 CP-50, YC 73,  FP-80, PX5-S, NE-5d61, Kurzweil SP6, XK-3, CX-3, Hammond XK-3, Yamaha YUX Upright, '66 B3/Leslie 145/122

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Originally posted by burningbusch:

The fact that the user community is out there wondering how many units there are, and actually tracking serial numbers demonstrates to me that these are fairly rare birds.

Just to clarify, the Karma Lab thread was created for fun because people quickly realized we had identical serial numbers (76s and 88s are numbered independently). The determination of number of units manufactured is a by-product, and assumes recent OASYS owners are actually aware of the thread and post their serial numbers there.

 

However, I would agree the OASYS is a low-volume keyboard, even at its (assumed) 2,300 units manufactured so far.

 

Originally posted by burningbusch:

I said "big sales hit" which is very different from exceeding modest sales projections.

How do you know the OASYS has not been a "big sales hit"? I would assert a "hit" would be relative to a manufacturer's original sales projections (which neither you nor I know).

 

Products sold in low volumes CAN be very profitable, and can be "hits".

 

Originally posted by burningbusch:

As it stands now, Korg has pretty much established that there is limited demand for high-end workstations.

There is "limited demand" for any product; it is all relative. Given today's current workstation prices are around $3,500, I could have told you an $8,500 workstation would have limited demand even before the product was released.

 

I will give you a different example, the Korg padKONTROL. Has this been a "hit"? Given your definition of simple sales volume, it would HAVE to be a hit. However, when I look at the padKONTROL at $199, I also see the M-Audio Trigger Finger ($199) and the AKAI MPD24 ($199) as competitors. I see alot of Trigger Fingers around (the MPD24 is fairly new), so I would assume it probably sells in similar volumes to the padKONTROL. Simply by cost alone ($199 versus $8,500), I would expect these products to sell in tremendously larger volumes. Whether a product has been financially sucessful (profitable for the manufacturer) is an entirely different story.

 

Originally posted by burningbusch:

IF, Yamaha and/or Roland, truly believe the OASYS type technology is what they will be moving to in future synths, THEN it makes sense. But that's not a given by any means.

 

Busch.

I suspect that Personal computer components WILL work themselves into workstations; in fact they already have. Internal hard drives/CD burners, USB ports and Compact Media are already part of many keyboard products. Using a PC motherboard and processor WAS a big leap for the "big three", but I expect to see them in Roland and Yamaha products within 3 years.
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