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CIA doc from before 9/11


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[quote][b] Transnational Terrorism States with poor governance; ethnic, cultural, or religious tensions; weak economies; and porous borders will be prime breeding grounds for terrorism. In such states, domestic groups will challenge the entrenched government, and transnational networks seeking safehavens. Bombed US Embassy in Nairobi At the same time, the trend away from state-supported political terrorism and toward more diverse, free-wheeling, transnational networks—enabled by information technology—will continue. Some of the states that actively sponsor terrorism or terrorist groups today may decrease or even cease their support by 2015 as a result of regime changes, rapprochement with neighbors, or the conclusion that terrorism has become counterproductive. But weak states also could drift toward cooperation with terrorists, creating defacto new state supporters. Between now and 2015 terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties. We expect the trend toward greater lethality in terrorist attacks to continue. Terrorism. Much of the terrorism noted earlier will be directed at the United States and its overseas interests. Most anti-US terrorism will be based on perceived ethnic, religious or cultural grievances. Terrorist groups will continue to find ways to attack US military and diplomatic facilities abroad. Such attacks are likely to expand increasingly to include US companies and American citizens. Middle East and Southwest Asian-based terrorists are the most likely to threaten the United States. [/b] [/quote]Although the government was obviously very much in tune with the overall situation prior to 9/11, the enormous difficulty in preventing such attacks by suicide forces was and still is extremely challenging and frightening. Like the Israeli/Palastine situation, if we can't get at the root of the conflict through dialogue and negotiation I'd say we've got hell to face for some time to come. Since convincing these young suicide volunteers that there is a better way seems a remote possibilty then this 'war on terrorism' appears to have no end in sight. For every extremist we kill two more are motivated. A vicious cycle if there ever was one. We are going to need a collaboration of all the greatest minds available just to begin to figure a way out of this one. :(
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War used to be much more predictable. When suicide attacks are the norm, the world gets quite dark indeed. I guess the main lesson is not to get to the point where people feel that the best or only way to fight is sacrafice of themselves and their children. As in racism, the real peace will be born in the way we raise our children. Let's hope that the time will come when religious belief will end as an excuse for war, and become the basis for peaceful coexistance.
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That's going to take longer than I would hope for. It seems the entertainment industry is signalling an all clear by reverting to the old tired ethnic and Arab cabbie jokes. Witness Letterman's jokes and Colin Quinn's lame show last night. And people eat it up.
It's OK to tempt fate. Just don't drop your drawers and moon her.
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