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Live Performance in the Age of Covid


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For what it's worth, I don't think I'll be playing my Halloween set of songs by dead rock stars, called "The Deadful Great," indoors at a local restaurant. Cases/hospitalizations/deaths are still on the rise here in TN. Even if I don't catch anything, I don't want to be responsible if people in the audience do.
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Fortunately, in Florida, outdoor gigs are plentiful in the winter. Winter is the dry season in Florida and the temperatures are usually mild.

 

We had a once-per-week gig at a marina for 12 consecutive seasons until COVID. The place got sold, and the new owners don't want entertainment during the week. We aren't appropriate for the weekend crowd, they need more than a duo.

 

We contacted a beach-side place, and the owner who has heard us in other venues was enthusiastic, and even offered us a $100 raise if we would move the party there. That's a good sign (it's nice to be appreciated).

 

We also play outdoors at a RV Resort that has 900 spots, 600 of which are usually rented all winter by French Canadians. I do hope the border is open by October. We're playing there once a month now, and if the border opens up it should be 2 to 4 per month.

 

Many of the yacht clubs, country clubs, and retirement developments we have played at for years are talking about parties poolside. The seniors are in the vulnerable age group, so outdoors is a plus for them.

 

Meanwhile, Mrs. Notes and I are working on 2 new aftermarket style e-disks for Band-in-a-Box and 5 new fake e-disks too. We hope to have a release early next year.

 

We're keeping busy one way or another. And that's a good thing.

 

We're fully vaccinated, and we will get booster shots when eligible. I, too, am tired of COVID, but my self-preservation instincts tell me it's no time to slack off.

 

Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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Right and this makes my point from earlier. Society is making the choice to live with COVID because people are not going to put up with lockdowns and everything else for the next 2-4 and possible more years.

 

I see Australia as of yesterday has given up. And the UK; both health ministries going into the "living with covid" spiel.

 

"Living with it" means changing a lot of things we take for granted.

 

Just a few days ago here in Augusta Georgia, the hospital system implemented a new pseudo-triage policy that is probably going to be adopted in a lot of places; involving the logistics of what happens when you're taken to the hospital in an ambulance. Effectively changing the parameters of responsibility for what happens from the ambulance>hospital, deregulating in a sense the ambulance services. Instead of waiting to set the status of patients coming in, it looks like they're going to get to drop people off and leave. Might work out fine, for now.

 

Kids in ICUs that can't breathe.

 

Much lower lifespan. I was kind of looking forward to making it to 100; that's much less likely now.

 

Elective surgery. My wife hopefully doesn't need another parathyroid procedure, but she can't even get an appointment with an oncologist surgeon at a hospital until February of next year. Which is presuming something will have changed with the hospital situation by then.

 

Insurance that won't cover you if you've tested positive. Because people can insist long covid isn't real, but it's real enough they're not going to want to cover you indefinitely for the plethora of things that are going to start becoming a burden on the health care system in itself: kidney, stomach problems on top of COPD syndromes. Mental health problems from covid fog.

 

I know of one athlete it's affected drastically. Probably the greatest race car drive in history, 7 time world champion - long covid, a couple of races ago he had to be helped onto the victory podium, trouble breathing, exhaustion. Another driver in Formula 1 today made his team put a reserve driver in his car because he tested positive. What's His Face the boxer that had to cancel the fight yesterday because he's in the hospital with covid. Basketball players, football players - look at what it did to the Olympics. Some of these people are not going to be able to perform at the same level because of it.

 

And of course, it's going to periodically kill people.

 

 

...but sure, we can "live" with it.

 

 

COVID will ALWAYS be with us with variants on top of variants.

 

 

I disagree. Eventually people, the herd, will get tired of dealing with it. A nation's leader will get tired of it, and see the obvious advantage of being rid of it. Which is definitely possible, New Zealand has controlled it, effectively almost eliminated it at one point except for bozos wrecking their efforts.

 

Some authoritarian nation like Singapore, Malaysia, maybe Duerte in the Phillipines will order a long, 30+ day lockdown until it burns out. Contact trace the outliers, and use zero covid strategies ala New Zealand until it's gone. They'll have a big economic advantage, and like in New Zealand (and Australia until recently) nobody will be thinking twice about going to concerts or shows there. No hospital systems bogged down, and no scourges of workers having to lay off from work for 10 days.

 

 

We'll have instant tests at some point, and there will be a two tiered society. Lambda will kick in late October, because I'm predicting there will be a lagged drop in cases any day now that people will again - falsely - insists "it's over!" and - again, idiotically - wreck it by going out and being reckless. BUT - for those of us that get the booster, people that get it *after* being infected, there will be a separate curve:

 

People that are trying to be smart, and those that aren't. Because lambda is going to blitz the remaining people that are anti-vax. Yes, vaccine breakthrough will happen, and more because it's lambda, but not as many of us will end up in the hospital. This time next year, I'm predicting it will be even more obvious the unvaccinated/anti-mask contingent are the problem, those not killed will be touting their "natural immunity" while everyone else will have increasing immunity through the boosters. Even now I'm seeing a little bit of muting of the anti-mask anti-vax people in my Venn diagram; a year from now it will finally be a socially unacceptable thing (that it should be now).

 

At which point we'll go in two directions: continued vaccination, testing, while the resisters will continue to self-marginalize via Darwinning themselves. "Living with it", knowing a marginalized demographic is WHY we'll continue to have variants WILL NOT forever be acceptable.

For instance, right now I'm quite sure there are a LOT of parents who have either changed their perspective about what we need to do, or have become more polarized by bad experiences with their kids.

Attitudes will change, but it's ridiculous thousands will die, and it will be at least another 2 years before it reaches a common-sense saturation point to want to actually eradicate it.

 

Otherwise, once the 1%'ers see New Zealand immigration+real estate packages becoming the Cool Thing for the hoi polloi, Kanye moves there or something like that, some other place will decide "hey... there's no reason we can't do that".

 

 

Vaccination numbers are going up as well as new cases.

 

The CDC drives me nuts. I know people there, they're segmented by bureaucracy, they can't have a unified presentation of reality. I tried to get someone's ear regarding the premise that showing *one* curve as being THE curve leading to garbage interpretations of data, and ... it's wrecking us. We're on the same curve the UK was on with delta, lagged 2-3 months; the *original strain's curve* fell off where it the *delta curve* started, but people used it to say "LOOK! IT'S OVER!!!" as well as "we FLATTENED THE CURVE!!!".

 

The "vaccination numbers" are a vector. Because while the number of vaccinations is still rising, you can't make a linear correlation to anything else because it's a scaled function,

 

1) you can't count people that were vaccinated in March as having the same immunity today as in April;

2) you can't use a function against the original strain to show any relevance to delta, a NEW curve.

 

BECAUSE.... people will start saying, maybe as soon as next week (guessing, I could be off a week with the numbers going down) "LOOK!!! The amount of people vaccinated is having an impact!", or "LOOK!!! We're seeing HERD IMMUNITY!!". And both statements will be wrong, and lead to dumb behavior, and COMPLETELY IGNORES LAMBDA.

 

Frakking frak, on the CDC website if you enter "lambda" as a search term it brings back articles from 3 years ago about mosquitos.

 

The numbers will fall off - like the cure in the UK a few months ago - but will *level out* instead of drop as it did in June, because we don't have enough vaccinated relative to the UK initially, AND we DON'T HAVE MASK MANDATES. By November Florida and Texas will have allowed lambda to get going, and we'll be back on the original strain's curve we saw at the same time last year.

 

But hopefully the deaths will be lower because of the vaccines. And again, hopefully there will be some residual effect of the vaccines against lambda, making it - AGAIN OBVIOUS - anti-vaxxers will be filling ICUs. Attitudes changing: I'm starting to see a dividing line now with HCW, doctors and nurses finally not hoding their tongues. If there is a surge towards the end of the year scaled up by lambda, as last year - what was formerly politically incorrect to say in public at the beginning of the year won't be anymore. The social pressure to get boosters, TO GET VACCINATED, will be what it should have been in April.

The tide is already turning in that direction; when the drive for boosters happens in November. Talk of unvaccinated triage won't be just hushed talk by December.

 

 

Remember, in the big picture they are equivalent. Every person who catches it adds to the overall immunity number and many researchers say catching it gives you better immunity than the vaccines.

 

The problem is the scaling as I was writing about above. Nobody seems to have caught on to this yet: "natural immunity" effectively goes away in about 3 months. And depending on which one, the vaccines wane to half efficacy in about 6 months. So right now there are people who are bragging about their "natural immunity" - totally ignoring all of the repeat infection cases - and people vaccinated, such as myself, but back in April - which means the "big picture" is as I was saying *2 different curves*: a sliding scale for immunity, and the prevalence. The "natural immunity" myth is going to screw up continued vaccination efforts, despite the effect that "they" could say in selling boosters as "look, you'll be even BETTER having been infected if you get the vax!". So going into December it will again be a mish-mash of people who *do* have some natural immunity, because they recently had covid, people who have had their 3rd shot - but also people that think because they had covid in April that they're covered. Which is dumb.

 

People will continue to spread it, allowing it to replicate. And while it hasn't been said, it's pretty obvious - with this many people infected, the mutation rate almost insures a new more-optimized variant will show up 3 months past the lambda surge. Or maybe Delta+ forces it out; regardless, going into 2023 the anti-vax people will be marginalized: the "natural immunity is perfect". (some people I see are saying they WANT to get covid so that... THEY'LL HAVE IMMUNITY FROM COVID???????) demographic will probably not have gotten on well with lambda by February 2023 I would imagine.

 

 

 

t that's not happening and you have to accept that. It ain't happening.

 

 

All I've typed above is to say: "let's see if attitudes have changed this time next year". If it's the same then I'll need to figure out how to emigrate to New Zealand, because I don't want to "live with covid" when it infects you every year on average, and ultimately kills you or at best, gives you debilitating organ damage of some sort.

 

At close to 2 years into this here's the bottom line. The odds of hospitalization, death and long COVID are low.

 

If you're vaccinated the odds are low. The problem with what you're thinking is that you're ignoring the "live with covid" life: you'll get it. Not just once, but over and over. Vaccines will change the odds, but eventually they won't, and your luck will run out. And in the mean time you've accepted a pretty crappy world as "living with covid".

 

Treatments are much better now. Long COVID has the worst odds at about 8%. That's still pretty good.

 

Some studies show it's much closer to 30%, although with the vax it's lower. Those "worst odds" start accumulating once you're getting it over and over. Which is where we're headed: everyone getting it. And allowing it to replicate to a new variant, getting that. 150 years of that will probably yield t-cell drift that covers it, makes it more akin to a DNA virus, plus we're going to be going through a genetic culling process on top of that. BUT IT'S GOING TO SUCK FOR OUR LIVES. It's ridiculous to give up when it DOES NOT HAVE TO BE THIS WAY.

 

 

92% chance you won't have a problem but it's a risk for sure. BUT, that's for unvaccinated people.

 

I personally know maybe 2 dozen people that have had it. One guy - vaccinated - in his 30s ended up in the hospital for 5 days, lost weight, hair, is on oxygen at home. I know someone else that is having mental problems from it, vaccinated. My father in law is recovering from it - thankfully vaccinated, otherwise being obese, diabetic and in his 70's he'd be dead. But my wife's sister, a school teacher, who has asthma, is not faring as well - despite being vaccinated. "92% chance" is for the original strain, if you're "actively" vaccinated; but even that doesn't count things that aren't going to show up for a few years, or long covid. Of the people I know that have had it, how many are really not going to have "a problem*? Those that had asnosmia, lost their taste/sense of smell? That had trouble breathing for a few days; are their lungs actually going to be 100% normal? *It attacks all organs*; it *changes your blood*.

 

If you read studies on autopsies, a different picture of "not having a problem" emerges. People die because their lungs stop supplying oxygen to them, cytokine storm. *But other organs are damaged*. In basically all cases. Brain, kidneys, heart, liver, stomach - it may not kill you this year, but you don't know what it's done to you. Given what can be *seen* - radiologists can *see* if people are infected by CAT scans - getting covid means a good probability you're going to have complications at some point. IMO throwing around the "it's not a big deal" stats without context is ignoring reality, like the person that smokes but pretends a lung x-ray couldn't represent themselves, because "I'm fine!".

 

 

We've done all we can do,

 

No we haven't.

 

the feeling is why do we have to go through all this crap again? For another 2 years? That ain't happening either. The unvaccinated will catch it, and be innumized that way and some will give in and get vaccinated Either way, it adds to the overall immunity level.

 

 

No, it doesn't work that way. You'll find it harder and harder to locate an epidemiologist that still thinks herd immunity can happen. Variants are outrunning vaccines and "natural immunity".

 

A few will die, a few more will have long COVID. That's life

 

 

That's sociopathic rubbish. Wait until it kills someone you know, and then tell that to their family, "that's life!", explain your point of view to them, I'm sure they'll love to hear it.

Guitar Lessons in Augusta Georgia: www.chipmcdonald.com

Eccentric blog: https://chipmcdonaldblog.blogspot.com/

 

/ "big ass windbag" - Bruce Swedien

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We had an outdoor gig today. It started raining hard this afternoon and the gig was cancelled.

 

It might be a quiet winter at home for me. I am not wanting to play indoor gigs, I don't think it's wise.

 

I do think (hope) there's more awareness that people need to be careful. It's so hard to predict how things will play out, there are a lot of wild cards. How many anti-vaxxers decided maybe it was a good idea, after three talk show hosts who pooh-poohed vaccination died nasty deaths? There are already rumblings at hospitals that have exceeded capacity about how to handle triage, and they're thinking well, unvaccinated people with covid have to get in line behind people who had urgent problems through no fault of their own. That might make people think twice.

 

The main wild card is what's going to happen this winter, because that certainly impacts the potential for indoor gigs. If I had to bet money, I'd bet against indoor gigs happening this winter. The 2021 August wave is higher than the August 2020 wave in terms of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths - and August 2020 was before there was a vaccine. The "monster" surge was in the 2020 Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Year time frame, and if people blithely go about doing their normal holiday routines, it seems almost certain history will repeat itself. Although there are studies of potentially promising cures that neutralize the virus, public implementation is probably years off.

 

Finally, you can't fix stupid, but sometimes it can have a silver lining. Because Florida's governor banned venues from requiring various safety precautions, many musicians now won't play in Florida, because they can't do things that might help to keep people safer (e.g., mask and vaccine mandates). So, they're cancelling concerts, which will at least prevent people from congregating and spreading the virus.

 

What a mess. I was talking to one company that had started to see live performance gear making a comeback, but now the brakes have been hit on purchases. But with the various supply chain issues, there are quite a few things people can't buy, even if they wanted to.

 

Bottom line is I'm expecting the worst for the live performance industry for the foreseeable future. I'm now seeing events being postponed until the end of 2022.

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We had an outdoor gig today. It started raining hard this afternoon and the gig was cancelled.

 

It might be a quiet winter at home for me. I am not wanting to play indoor gigs, I don't think it's wise.

We had a rained out gig on Friday.

 

It was an outdoor gig at a huge RV Resort that we often play at. From approximately mid-May to the end of October, it's the rainy season here in Florida. That means there is a good chance wherever you are will be hit by a thunderstorm.

 

We played that same venue a week before, it rained, but we stayed dry. Friday's storm was torrential with 40mph winds. Even though we set up on a decent sized porch, there was no way to stay dry in that kind of weather.

 

They have a big indoor room at this resort. But... Our governor signed an executive order that says if a person comes to your establishment, even if he/she is running a 104 degree fever, coughing, sneezing and looking like death warmed over, you cannot ask for a vaccine passport or recent COVID test. You have to let that person in or face a $5,000 fine. The newspapers call it Death by DeSantis. For that reason, the indoor facility is closed, and no one can go in there. The management at the resort doesn't want to be responsible for a super-spreader event.

 

Live performance in the age of COVID here in Florida is challenging. We continue to do the best that we can.

 

Insights and incites by Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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We had an outdoor gig today. It started raining hard this afternoon and the gig was cancelled.

 

It might be a quiet winter at home for me. I am not wanting to play indoor gigs, I don't think it's wise.

We had a rained out gig on Friday.

 

It was an outdoor gig at a huge RV Resort that we often play at. From approximately mid-May to the end of October, it's the rainy season here in Florida. That means there is a good chance wherever you are will be hit by a thunderstorm.

 

We played that same venue a week before, it rained, but we stayed dry. Friday's storm was torrential with 40mph winds. Even though we set up on a decent sized porch, there was no way to stay dry in that kind of weather.

 

They have a big indoor room at this resort. But... Our governor signed an executive order that says if a person comes to your establishment, even if he/she is running a 104 degree fever, coughing, sneezing and looking like death warmed over, you cannot ask for a vaccine passport or recent COVID test. You have to let that person in or face a $5,000 fine. The newspapers call it Death by DeSantis. For that reason, the indoor facility is closed, and no one can go in there. The management at the resort doesn't want to be responsible for a super-spreader event.

 

Live performance in the age of COVID here in Florida is challenging. We continue to do the best that we can.

 

Insights and incites by Notes

 

Masks are required by mandate in places of business and that seems to be supported and enforced by the establishments themselves too. There are exceptions in Whatcom County, one of them recently stopped having live music since both staff and patrons had been infected.

 

Many places of business in Bellingham now require proof of vaccination in addition to masks. But for the most part, clubs that book music are pretty small and serve both food and beverages so patrons won't be wearing masks.

I'd rather lose the pay than risk the infection.

It took a chunk of my life to get here and I am still not sure where "here" is.
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<...snip...>

I'd rather lose the pay than risk the infection.

 

I'm with you.

 

We were offered an indoor gig at a club that has been closed twice due to COVID. It is frequented by the group of people most likely to be anti-vax and anti-mask folks.

 

It was to be a weekly or often recurring gig, and the money was a bit short. We're used to sacrificing a little pay for steady work, especially in the slow season, but we turned it down for exactly the reason you mentioned.

 

If you get COVID, there is no Ctrl+Z or Cmd+Z to get un-sick.

 

Although COVID is a blood disease that is transported through the respiratory system, it wreaks damage in the body, including brain, lungs, liver, kidneys, heart, and so on.

 

I need my brain and lungs to make a living, and I really like having the rest of my body in prime working order. I've grown attached to it.

 

We're losing close to 2,000 people per week to COVID in Florida, and that's probably a low estimate. Acting like it's over isn't working at all. I intend to be a survivor, so I will refuse indoor gigs, wear my masks, keep my distance, and avoid all unnecessary personal contacts.

 

The mortgage is paid, I have zero debt, and I can survive without gigging, even though it's Mrs. Notes and my second favorite thing to do.

 

I'll take outdoor gigs if the situation isn't too crowded, and I feel pretty safe about my proximity to the audience.

 

Survival goes to the most adaptable. I hope I'm making the right decisions.

 

Insights and incites by Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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^^^ stuff above ^^^

Nobody is going to play the long game for us, we must make our own choices and stand by them.

 

I've played plenty, missing a few gigs won't bother me much.

Every week I find out that people know have/had Covid. It gets around.

It took a chunk of my life to get here and I am still not sure where "here" is.
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Nobody seems to have caught on to this yet: "natural immunity" effectively goes away in about 3 months. And depending on which one, the vaccines wane to half efficacy in about 6 months.

Actually, natural immunity lasts 8 months or longer (so far). And that will probably increase as time goes on and people continue to remain immune:

 

"The longitudinal study, published recently on Cell Reports Medicine, looked at 254 patients with mostly mild to moderate symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection over a period for more than eight months (250 days) and found that their immune response to the virus remained durable and strong."

 

http://news.emory.edu/stories/2021/07/covid_survivors_resistance/index.html

 

Also some vaccinated people are 13 times more likely to contract Delta than those with natural immunity:

 

"According to the study, those who had been vaccinated with BNT162b2 were 13 times more likely to be infected with the Delta variant than those who had already been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and had developed natural immunity to the virus":

 

https://thevaccinereaction.org/2021/09/israeli-study-finds-natural-immunity-to-coronavirus-far-superior-to-vaccine-induced-immunity/

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As to what's relevant to concerts, it's interesting to check out the fallout from Sturgis. Bottom line is that so many people got infected in South Dakota last winter that between that and those who got vaccinated, the best data showed at least 75% had some degree of immunity. To quote from the article:

 

That"s what makes Sturgis an important test. If it had gone off without big spikes in covid cases, it would have provided strong evidence that this level of population immunity â around 75 percent â would allow us to get back to the way we did things in 2019. But unfortunately, that"s not what happened. In the weeks since the rally began in early August, infection numbers have shot up more than 600 percent in South Dakota. We can expect to see big increases in other states, too, since bikers returned home from the event. Last year, after Sturgis, we saw massive outbreaks across the Dakotas, Wyoming, Indiana, even Nevada. Much of the region was aflame because of Sturgis, probably causing thousands of deaths.

 

But the article goes on to compare Sturgis with other mass outdoor events, and came to the conclusion that what did in Sturgis was people congregating in bars and other indoor spaces. The article basically concludes that outdoor events are doable under tightly controlled conditions, and technically it's not that hard to meet those conditions.

 

If the article is correct, it's a good news/bad news situation. Good, in the sense that high levels of immunity likely work for outdoor events, Bad for the US, in the sense that winter is coming to the northern hemisphere.

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Also some vaccinated people are 13 times more likely to contract Delta than those with natural immunity:

 

"According to the study, those who had been vaccinated with BNT162b2 were 13 times more likely to be infected with the Delta variant than those who had already been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and had developed natural immunity to the virus":

 

https://thevaccinereaction.org/2021/09/israeli-study-finds-natural-immunity-to-coronavirus-far-superior-to-vaccine-induced-immunity/

I wouldn't touch that site with a ten foot vaccination needle.

 

The National Vaccine Information Center (NVIC), founded under the name Dissatisfied Parents Together (DPT) in 1982, is an American 501©(3)[1] organization that has been widely criticized as a leading source of fearmongering and misinformation about vaccines.

 

That being said, here is the link to the pre-print Israeli study if you're interested. If it turns out to be accurate, it's an interesting and maybe devastating conclusion. If we're better off having contracted COVID-19 instead of being vaccinated from it, that puts too many at risk.

"I'm so crazy, I don't know this is impossible! Hoo hoo!" - Daffy Duck

 

"The good news is that once you start piano you never have to worry about getting laid again. More time to practice!" - MOI

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Actually, natural immunity lasts 8 months or longer (so far). And that will probably increase as time goes on and people continue to remain immune:

 

"The longitudinal study, published recently on Cell Reports Medicine, looked at 254 patients with mostly mild to moderate symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection over a period for more than eight months (250 days) and found that their immune response to the virus remained durable and strong."

 

 

That study finished in June, pre-delta. If it held true to now, then nobody would be getting reinfected if they'd had covid since the beginning of the year. I know at least 2 people that has had it twice in the past year; what's actually happening is that they're getting reinfected with *delta* - a different strain. Also , in vitro response that is half what it was at one point is not the same as "immunity". If infected people would get vaccinated they would have a tremendous advantage, but to not get vaccinated based on in vitro response from a prior strain is illogical - nobody at Emory is going to say you don't need to get vaccinated if you've been infected, nor are they going to say you're protected indefinitely.

 

 

http://news.emory.edu/stories/2021/07/covid_survivors_resistance/index.html

 

Also some vaccinated people are 13 times more likely to contract Delta than those with natural immunity:

 

 

That's a different concept. People infected with *delta* is not the same as people infected last year. There can't be herd immunity unless the virus decides to not to mutate, and it goes to statistical zero infections. If we'd locked down ala New Zealand when the vaccines came out, stopped it before delta had a chance to catch on, we could have done it. *The situation now is NOT what it was a year ago*, thanks to errant ignorant behavior.

 

Unless your "strategy" is to continually get sick again, every year in order to have "immunity", there can be no long term option aside from a real 28+ day lockdown with contact tracing/isolation. Get reinfected 3-4 times, you may end up with B cell drift that covers enough epitopes that you can *then* truly claim something akin to "immunity" - but that requires many more thousands to die, probably the destruction of our hospital system, health insurance system as organ damage complications are revealed as endemic. We could have "herd immunity" after a few million have died, and everyone has questionable physical and mental health after being infected multiple times. A society of crippled and mental deficient people.

 

Not a good "strategy" touting "natural immunity" as a panacea IMO, YMMV.

Guitar Lessons in Augusta Georgia: www.chipmcdonald.com

Eccentric blog: https://chipmcdonaldblog.blogspot.com/

 

/ "big ass windbag" - Bruce Swedien

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[

 

Hey! Maybe we should just start a rumor on social media that doctors say impotence is a serious long-term effect of covid-19, but this hasn't been publicized because the doctors are part of a conspiracy, and don't want people to panic.

 

 

"Mask up to keep it up" - study

 

There are other studies that indicate similar implications. While mostly blood is altered, SARS-COV2 attacks all tissues.

Guitar Lessons in Augusta Georgia: www.chipmcdonald.com

Eccentric blog: https://chipmcdonaldblog.blogspot.com/

 

/ "big ass windbag" - Bruce Swedien

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at least 75% had some degree of immunity. To quote from the article:

 

 

The problem is that *everyone is not acquiring their immunity at the same time, to the same strain*. My point is that I know people that are walking around saying "I had it already (last year...) so I'm immune", "I got vaccinated (back in March) so I'm immune" - and that's not true. It's a sliding scale. While the Sturgis crowd (who got infected) *are* temporarily immunized, they're going to be around people in the above categories - and will infect them.

 

Everybody has to be immune *the same amount, at the same time*. We blew the opportunity to do that at the start of the year. My point back then was that was a *UNIQUE* opportunity we'll never have again, a clean sheet of paper. We were lucky then, in that (people don't realize/know this) people had already been working on a SARS-COV1 vaccine for years. Pfizer and Moderna can try to tweak for variants, but they'll never get *ahead* of the variants. We have no options now except the New Zealand approach. It is the only logical way.

Guitar Lessons in Augusta Georgia: www.chipmcdonald.com

Eccentric blog: https://chipmcdonaldblog.blogspot.com/

 

/ "big ass windbag" - Bruce Swedien

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I wouldn't touch that site with a ten foot vaccination needle.

 

 

The Israeli *studies* are being taken out of context so much.

Israel's community is not representational of the world;

The results are not linear across age groups - for a reason;

Without the context of deaths relative to other nations, it's not valid;

Hospitalization rate in Israel.... is NOT the same thing as hospitalizations in, say, rural South Carolina.

 

Cherry pick fallacies are a scourge in social media.

 

The parameters are known: you stand a better chance with the vaccines, presuming you survive you're risking long term health if you get infected, immunity from vaccines and infection is not permanent (unfortunately). Masks help, distancing helps, lock downs work. With hospitals at capacity you're killing many more people that do not show up statistically, because people are missing operations/procedures/care for other maladies. And with tens of thousands out of work for days routinely, the economy is negatively affected.

 

That's it. People that are busy posting some distorted headline are ultimately wanting what is in the above paragraph to not be true, somehow. Delusional wishful thinking.

 

Without a breakthrough - Oxford Principle study has positive results, a cheap/free/accurate instant test is invented, magically universal-epitope vaccine is concocted - there is ONLY ONE WAY OUT. New Zealand is showing the way, THERE IS NO OTHER OPTION.

Guitar Lessons in Augusta Georgia: www.chipmcdonald.com

Eccentric blog: https://chipmcdonaldblog.blogspot.com/

 

/ "big ass windbag" - Bruce Swedien

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I'm mad because covid derailed a live project I had in the works 2 years ago, and now it seems like it's never going to happen.

 

I'm further mad because, *we could so easily have a normal gigging life*, a NORMAL way of life*. It's very simple, obviously works, and costs a whole lot less than what is happening now. It's pathetic, ridiculously pathetic, that "patriotic" "Americans" insist the U.S. can't do what little New Zealand has managed - or England or Canada, that "freedumbs" are more important.

 

I'm still maintaining ultimately people will get tired of this, tired of people around them dying, tired of finding out they can't go to the hospital because it's filled with unvaccinated people, tired of finding out that they now have a kidney problem, heart problem, brain problem, because they got a "mild" case of covid, tired of getting that "mild case" that puts them in bed for a week or more every year... at some point it will dawn on the herd that "wait... why don't we JUST LOCKDOWN AND GET RID OF IT?"

 

Look up video of daily life in New Zealand. It almost looks fake, or from years ago. Zero reason the same procedures can't be applied in any country.

Guitar Lessons in Augusta Georgia: www.chipmcdonald.com

Eccentric blog: https://chipmcdonaldblog.blogspot.com/

 

/ "big ass windbag" - Bruce Swedien

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Chip, the unvaccinated and super spreader events occur from both sides of the political aisle. Stop acting like it's one side ruining it for everyone.

 

I really try to stay away from politics in this thread, but we do value fact-based opinions around here. The National Review, which I don't dismiss out of hand, had an interesting comment on findings from the NYT:

 

The national map looks less like a redâblue map than like a voter-turnout map; places that have historically had high levels of public participation in elections and public trust in institutions â e.g., certain corners of New England and the Upper Midwest â are the most heavily vaccinated. But there are exceptions: The heavily Hispanic, working-class border regions of Texas are ahead of the national average, for example, despite a history of low voter-participation rates. Maps of New York City"s vaccination patterns look more like a map of the city"s class divide than its partisanship, with high levels of vaccination in the lower two-thirds of Manhattan and the northeast of Queens, the pace of vaccination in South Brooklyn and the South Bronx lagging behind, and Staten Island"s vaccination rate squarely in the middle. Then again, vaccine resistance is clearly higher in rural areas in the center and west of the country"s interior, where people simply have a lower expectation of being in regular close quarters with strangers.

 

So the real issue here is cause-and-effect. It is an indisputable statistic that states with larger Trump vote shares are likely to have more adults who are vaccine hesitant. But that doesn't mean you can draw any conclusions whether it has to do with Trump himself, the reasons people voted for Trump, or totally apolitical reasons ("I don't know anyone who's gotten covid, doesn't seem like it's such a big deal")...it's anyone's guess. People in states when Covid is now surging are getting vaccinated.

 

I think you could just as easily draw a map that correlates to what networks people watch, or the quality of public education. A lot of the world still hasn't gotten the memo that they need to do their own research...and sorry, but that takes actual work.

 

My favorite example of cause-and-effect is that anyone who has died from Covid drank water. So, if they don't drink water, they won't die.

 

What matters at this point is what we can do about gigging. There are plenty of places on the internet to point fingers and place blame. There's nothing we can do about that now. It's like a bomb went off, and we have to clean up the damage. It doesn't matter who dropped the bomb at this point, because dealing with the damage is the priority.

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I thought our summer run was over but it looks like we have 3 outdoor gigs this weekend, 2 paid and one benefit for a fellow musician who needs help paying for his health care.

Weather is supposed to be nice. We may get another week out of this, or two.

 

The only people who predict the weather in Bellingham are newbies and fools.

It took a chunk of my life to get here and I am still not sure where "here" is.
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Thankfully, Florida has almost endless summer.

 

We did a 12-year running, once per week, afternoon gig at an outdoor marina/deli/convenience store. COVID brought new owners, who are hesitant to book us on a weekday (they don't realize how much money we brought in between lunch and dinner).

 

We contacted a competitor, he was excited, and offered us more money to move the party to his outdoor restaurant/lounge across the street from the public beach. He has visited us at our old marina, saw the SRO crowds, and he is also a musician, so he knows what we are doing.

 

It is outdoors, and the exceptions will be like they were in the old place. If it's raining or if daytime temperatures are too cold, we don't play or get paid. Fair enough.

 

It doesn't get cold often here. But when there are one of those 'killer blizzards' up north, we sometimes get the tail end where it'll get into the 40s at night and only 60s in the day. These usually last 2 days and then warm back up again. The problem with that, it is also windy.

 

Some years we had no cold cancelled days, on the worst years just a few.

 

I'm looking forward to returning after our rainy season (usually from mid-May to late-October) is done.

 

Wish us luck!!!

 

Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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Cherry pick fallacies are a scourge in social media.

On that we agree. But it's not just social media, it's the media itself. Ivermectin (regardless of whether or not it works, that's irrelevant) is one of the safest and most prescribed drugs on the planet, something like 200 million doses are given out every single year. The creator won the Nobel prize for it in 2015. But to most of the regular media and social media it's nothing more than a horse dewormer. Why is the media lying about something so well known?

 

And just a couple days ago most of the media ran with the laughably fake story that a hospital had to turn away gunshot victims because of overcrowding from people overdosing on Ivermectin. No fact checking was done...the story fit their narrative so it was printed. It turned out to be a hoax of course, but the retractions and corrections only reached a fraction of the people that were fed the original lie. But that's the whole intent, isn't it?

 

So, there is plenty of misinformation, cherry picking, and outright lies on BOTH sides, including from the government. And perhaps that's why some people have vaccine hesitancy...they know they're being lied to.

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I just picked up another gig filling in for the anti-vaxxer girl who is still in the hospital with COVID.

 

She was a vocal anti-vax gal, and she is still in the hospital. I would rather not get another gig this way, but on the other hand, I can't feel sorry for her. I'm all out of sorry for people who don't get vaccinated and end up on a ventilator. It's sad, but it was the risk they knowingly took.

 

I've been gigging since the 1960s. I've never-ever missed the downbeat. I've never-ever farmed out my gig to another. People who book me know I'll show up, and that gets me a lot of gigs. They know they can depend on me.

 

Getting vaccinated was one way to make sure I'll show up. Living a healthy lifestyle is another. There is no guarantee that some day in the future I will miss a gig, but the people who book me regularly and have depended on me for years will probably understand.

 

I do hope the gal who got COVID recovers. She is a good entertainer and, other than her anti-vax preaching, a decent gal.

 

Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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Chip, you keep referring to New Zealand. First, it's an island country with obvious advantages. Do you know the populatioin? It's 4.9 million. FOUR POINT NINE MILLION for gods sake that's less than the city of Los Angeles and half the size of Switzerland. The population density is 47 people per square mile. The population density of the US with all of our huge wide open spaces is double that at 94 per square mile. It's absulutely ridiculous to try to say all we need to do is copy what New Zealand did. It's not even apples and oranges it's like apples and shrimp or something. The other huge difference is NZ is a commonwealth country meaning they have a parlimentarian system of government. Most Americans have no idea how that works. I lived in Canada for 10 years so I saw it first hand. They often have multiple political parties like 4, 5 or even more. They have to form various coalitions to come up with a majority and that majority elects their leader from all their members of parliment called the Prime Minister. No outsiders, it's all about party members of parliment. When that person wins an election their entire party (coalition) becomes the new goverment. Presto chango, just like that. It's like if we elect a President, that persons party automatically IS the govenrment meaning electing the Pres gives him Congress too except the cabinet members are already elected as members of parliment so they just simply take over, no presidential nominations, no waiting for Senate confirmatioins, the new winner just takes over, that's it. Imagine the power that gives the majority in that kind of system. It is efficient because the minority already has a complete shadow government ready to go so there is no transition time period.

 

They do have a check and balance, it's called a non confidence vote. If the majority does something the minority thinks is really bad politically, they'll call for a vote of non confidence. If they win, the government is automatically dissolved and new elections are called in six weeks which is why we often wonder what's going on in the UK, Canada and the other former British colony countries. We have elections on set timeframes but they don't. The PM can decide to call an election any time if he/she thinks it could give a bigger majority which Trudeau just did in Canada.

 

Enough of that lesson, the point is a PM in a commonwealth country has vastly more power than our President does. It's not quite a dictatorship but they can put in all sorts of COVID restrictions and there's little can be done about it other than the minority pulling off a non confidence vote which is fairly rare because they have to flip a lot of the majority's members of parliment. Please stop comparing us with New Zealand.

 

Other than that, you're very much plugged into a lot of health info and I appreciate reading your take on all this. If you're correct then all I can say as far as gigging is concered, we're screwed, blued and tattooed. Because people will see what's happening and completely stop going to indoor music venues for years to come. Personally, without your knowledge I just think it won't be that bad but that could be wishful thinking.

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
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Other than that, you're very much plugged into a lot of health info and I appreciate reading your take on all this. If you're correct then all I can say as far as gigging is concered, we're screwed, blued and tattooed. Because people will see what's happening and completely stop going to indoor music venues for years to come. Personally, without your knowledge I just think it won't be that bad but that could be wishful thinking.

 

Bob

 

Thanks for returning to the thread's subject, my finger was hovering over the delete button for your post and Chip's. It is so unfortunate this has become politicized to the point where no one really knows what's going on. There was recently a story about a study in Nigeria that linked Ivermectin (which is commonly used there to treat river blindness) with low sperm counts and even infertility, which was pulled because the testing methods used were questioned. Then there's actual fake news (as in factually incorrect, not just something someone disagrees with) bombarding us from the left and right.

 

It seems the difference between virologists/medical professionals and the general public, media, and politicians is that they KNOW they don't have the answers. For example a lot of the "just open things up" people regard Covid as digital - either you live through it, or you die. Since most people survive, it can't be that bad...right? But a lot of the "lock things down" people point to insidious long-term effects, not just "long covid" but organ damage, in those who have "recovered" from Covid (even mild cases). No one really knows how serious these effects are, in how many people, for how long.

 

So we're all steering this massive ship without a rudder, and without knowing whether we're going to run into icebergs or not, because it's nighttime and we can't see them.

 

My prediction is that no matter what happens, this will leave us with a diminished world. Pandemics traditionally expose what's wrong with societies, and here we are, right on cue. Trust and facts have essentially been eroded in favor of blind faith and feelings. I see this affecting the music business in several ways.

 

* If there's a winter surge, concerts will be outdoor-only events for the foreseeable future.

* The home recording boom will level off, but not go away.

* In the "wishful thinking" department, someone will crack the code on doing something with streaming that captures the public's imagination.

* People who mix sound professionally and run tours are going to have to adjust to those being almost 100% seasonal activities.

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people will see what's happening and completely stop going to indoor music venues for years to come.

 

930 Club reopened last night in DC after being closed for 18 months. It's my favorite place to be in this town. I couldn't get tickets, even though I knew what was happening. My best connections have relocated or passed away so I'm on my own now for tickets.

 

1,200 person capacity venue sold out in 60 seconds. :noway:

 

https://www.washingtonian.com/2021/09/10/foo-fighters-played-the-930-club-and-it-was-quite-a-scene/

:nopity:
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I get it, it's the same around here but if Chip is right and we're going to get hit with new variants, our immunity gained from the vaccines starts to drop a lot then as all these numbers go up again, these indoor venues will have to change either voluntarily or not. That would be a very shitty situation which I "think" won't happen because as I said earlier, people won't stand for it any more and just "live" with whatever happens. Unless it really gets bad and I'm simply not thinking or discussing that right now. The reason is I'm an optimistic person and I think we've turned the corner on this thing but time will tell. For me, I'm not doing any indoor gigs and haven't been offered any anyway probably for the same reason I'm not interested, and if they say I should get a booster because I got the second jab last February, I'll be first in line. Again.

 

My three Labor Day weekend gigs in Catalina went great, good crowds, for the second night we competed with a pretty good Stones tribute band who had full costumes, a full stage, sound and lights on the beach. Somebody who knows the promoter said that was a 10K show. We were about 150 feet away blocked by a big hotel doing our thing and still drew the same size crowd we did two weeks ago. One couple told me the Stones band were good performers but we were the real musicians.. I thought that was nice and I know why, it's because I started doing some good funky jazz stuff a few years ago and everybody loved it. We are primarily a good classic rock band but one time the bandleader was running late and I hate starting late so I just started playing Night in Tunsia and I expected the drummer and bassist to just wait but they jumped right on it perfectly and the next thing I know we're doing Thieves in the Temple, Take Five, The Chicken, Mr. Magic, Canteloupe Island to open the sets and since this is supposed to be an outdoor classic rock gig, I'll punch them up. Some of you will appreciate this, I'm doing this as a trio when I always have a sax player for that stuff but I managed work in the heads with my usual keyboard comping. That was a stretch for me, I got it to where it's fun now but I still miss a sax player. Now, if myself, the bass and drummer finish setting up a early which is normal, we'll start with a couple of those while the bandleader is setting up his stuff and the PA. It shows the crowd we're not just a bunch of old fart rockers although we are that too, haha. People of all ages even teenagers, really appreciate that level of versatility. One set we closed with LA Woman, everybody was dancing their butts off and the leader announced we're taking a break and on a whim I started Killer Joe while he's talking and several people commented on how they loved that song and this is after they wore themselves out dancing to the Doors so maybe I'll do that occasionally as well. Nothing is set in stone, it's just what feels right at the moment.

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
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We covered for the COVID gal's group again last night. No word on how she is doing, but she's missed 2 gigs, and each of us only play once a month.

 

As I mentioned before, she was a vocal anti-vax/anti-mask gal. She is also a nice person and a good performer. I hope she makes it.

 

This reinforces our decision to only play outdoor gigs. Since my mortgage is paid off, we don't have to take everything that comes by.

 

Fortunately, I live in Florida, where the winters are mild and playing outdoors isn't a candidate for frostbite or hypothermia.

 

I'm hoping the US opens the border to Canadians this month. We play at an RV park that usually hosts 600 French Canadian families, and they are a lot of fun.

 

No, nothing is going to be as it was before COVID. But then nothing is ever as it was. Sometimes the change is gradual, sometimes abrupt.

 

Insights and incites by Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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I'm hoping the US opens the border to Canadians this month.

 

A couple of our friends that attended our going away party last night just returned from Canada where they'd spent about a week. They did some type of saliva test I hadn't heard about before and apparently had some sort of tracking app on their phones. They crossed over up by Sarnia (north of Detroit) and were there because she has family she hasn't seen in a couple of years.

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... as I said earlier, people won't stand for it any more and just "live" with whatever happens.

I also think this is where we're headed, with yearly vaccinations becoming normal (like they have been). Personally I think people under 40 and in the prime of their lives - need to be going about their business as usual - working, having kids, raising families and yes going to concerts. The risk of death for those under 40 is very low and they are the bulk of people that make society and civilization work. - CDC - Infection/Morbidity Rates by Age

 

Notes:

- Over 40? Be careful

- Over 50? Be more careful

- Over 65? Be extremely careful, morbidity sky rockets, and increases significantly as you get older.

 

More importantly (and to get back on topic) - this raises questions about events that cater to older crowds; there's a big difference in risk between Lalapalooza and a 60s/70's band on tour.

CDC - Infection/Morbidity Rates by Age

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