Live Performance in the Age of Covid

[harmonizer]

Human choices are creating a situation that increases the chances that additional variants will develop, ones that might prove more dangerous to those who catch it (and not just more contagious). Maybe such variants will develop, and cause a lot more harm. Or, maybe no new dangerous variants will develop. Based on this, what should all of us be doing? - and I do mean all of us.

[Chip McDonald]

Citing being vaccinated, but going out in public around people is no different than doing the same without being vaccinated: with delta, you're still potentially infecting other people. It doesn't change the equation. Yes, you may not die or have to go to the hospital; but you've got a pretty good chance of having long covid, organ damage, or both. From a personal responsibility standpoint you're no different than someone unvaccinated: you're endangering those around you and helping it mutate.

 

 

The virus is not magically going away. If nothing changes with societal behavior - if we don't stop gigging and encouraging casual gatherings - lambda will not be the Big News of 2022, it will be the ONLY news.

There won't be a NAMM show, there will be government enforced lockdowns, closed hospitals, food shortages, chaos.

 

WE DO HAVE A CHOICE! New Zealand and Australia has shown the way. It's plain as day, right in front of you, but it sucks to imagine having to do it and the turmoil involved. There is no logistical reason the U.S. couldn't do the same, certainly the U.K. could. Other nations will eventually do it, one by one, as it becomes apparent it is the ONLY way out of this. These places will be back on their feet economically and socially, other nations will follow. We can choose to do it voluntarily, or have the government force us next year.

 

Gigging, participating in gatherings, in light of the math is wrecking our future. The vaccine roll out was an opportunity missed; not having lambda take over will be an opportunity missed. Attitudes must change, or they will be changed later, and it starts with personal responsibility.

 

These acts that are now out of commission because of covid: who in their organizations are going to have permanent damage because "YOLO! I'm vaccinated!!!"? I'd feel like a heel if I found out somebody else in the band got infected FROM ME, much less if somebody in the road crew died, or in turn infected someone in their family that ends up dying.

 

*You don't get to say "how could I have known that would happen?" anymore*.

[Chip McDonald]

. Maybe such variants will develop, and cause a lot more harm. Or, maybe no new dangerous variants will develop. Based on this, what should all of us be doing? - and I do mean all of us.

 

 

It's not maybe, and it's not a maybe that it's more dangerous. I suppose it's the CDC/government's fault people don't know, but you should know that the lambda variant is now in all 50 states, although mostly in... Texas and Florida. If we let it catch on, 2022 is going to be worse than now:

Lambda variant is real, vaccine resistant, here and now:

 

(Reuters article. If one doesn't believe Reuters there are plenty of studies on it available in medical journals)

 

Lambda variant in Louisiana:

 

Lambda in California:

 

Lamba seen in 9% of cases in Miami:

 

 

You can ignore the above, but it's reality. Without changing behavior lambda will supplant delta.

[Anderton]

Citing being vaccinated, but going out in public around people is no different than doing the same without being vaccinated: with delta, you're still potentially infecting other people.

 

But until Lambda or a vaccine-resistant strain takes over to the point where it dominates over delta, do you believe that masks, social distancing, sanitizing, etc. don't make any difference? That's what all the states doing "no mask mandates" are saying.

 

If the CDC etc. are correct that the main reason for vaccinated people to wear a mask is to prevent infecting other people, and if you can always maintain distance/be outdoors/etc. when being in the world, it seems that's a potential modus vivendi for the respites between the surges.

[Anderton]

Citing being vaccinated, but going out in public around people is no different than doing the same without being vaccinated: with delta, you're still potentially infecting other people.

 

But until Lambda or a vaccine-resistant strain takes over to the point where it dominates over delta, do you believe that masks, social distancing, sanitizing, etc. don't make any difference? That's what all the states doing "no mask mandates" are saying.

 

If the CDC etc. are correct that the main reason for vaccinated people to wear a mask is to prevent infecting other people, and if you can always maintain distance/be outdoors/etc. when being in the world, it seems that's a potential modus vivendi for the respites between the surges.

 

Frankly, I think there are far more worrisome things on the horizon overall, but that's not what this thread is about so I'll leave it at that.

 

And we're back to the original premise, and I'm still looking for answer: if you can't gig or have social interaction, what do you do if you're a sound engineer, musician, etc.? I've floated several idea that don't involve social interactions, yet people seem fixated on the concept that playing for people has to be done in a traditional concert setting, and is therefore impossible. I'm just not that defeatist. Surely there are workarounds.

[ajstan]

My take? When people go to see live music, it's for some combination of the following reasons:

 

1. The atmosphere of the venue.

2. The food and beverage available at the venue.

3. To meet up with friends.

4. To hear any type of live music.

5. To hear a specific type of music.

6. To experience a specific band/performer.

7. To be around others who appreciate the type of music being played.

 

Are there any of these that can be meaningfully replicated over the internet through a phone/tablet and headphones or even a decent home AV system?

 

Sure, I can enjoy a couple Rick Beato videos, watch a couple episodes of Live from Daryl's house, re-watch a prerecorded concert video, or find a live stream of someone of interest, but all are poor substitutes for the visceral impact and room transformation that live music creates and the human connection of being out amongst others.

 

Even if there are a critical mass of people willing to watch (and pay), the competition for those people on the internet isn't local, it's global. While I gather that there are some on this forum with the level of talent to find a niche, create content for it, and build an audience, it is rare. For the vast majority of the rest, it would be a labor of unrequited love.

[Notes_Norton]

I choose to minimize my risk by being careful about where I gig.

 

So far - so good. Wish me luck.

 

I do believe that being vaccinated at this point in the development of the plague minimizes the risk from the most severe consequences of the virus, including death.

 

There is no way I can play saxophone, flute or wind synthesizer with a mask on, and I don't think singing with one would work either. Yet I have to make a living, so I have to gig.

 

Only taking outdoor gigs where I am not too close to the audience seems to be the mid-point for me. YMMV.

 

I know of one musician in the area who was in one of my friends' band who died. He was middle-aged and seemed very healthy. He was not vaccinated.

 

Good luck to all.

 

Notes

[Anderton]

Are there any of these that can be meaningfully replicated over the internet through a phone/tablet and headphones or even a decent home AV system?

 

No...but a mind-boggling VR trip to an incredible DJ set, with incredible surround sound that you control, can't be replicated at the bar down the street, either. You can't replace the irreplaceable...the goal is to come up with workarounds to hold us over.

[Groove On]

Surely there are workarounds.

I like Sangah Noona's weekend streaming "request" shows. She usually does a couple of 2-hour sets on the weekends. Money-wise, people donate for their song requests, plus she gets around 5-6k views on each 2-hour video. I understand that keeping viewers on longer videos significantly increases your Youtube earnings percentage.

 

What I think she gets right:

- she's a performer

- her personality is authentic

- sound recording is excellent for Youtube (plus it's a Shigeru Kawai)

- video lighting/angls focuses on the music/instrument/performer

- lovely, cozy, "guest-in-the studio/living room" feeeelzzz

 

Notes:

So while she's basically busking online, it all comes across more like a modern lounge show, a better experience than just "some guy on the internet".

Her studio equipment easily runs around US$50k ++ (in the Youtube description)

 

[video:youtube]

[Chip McDonald]

Citing being vaccinated, but going out in public around people is no different than doing the same without being vaccinated: with delta, you're still potentially infecting other people.

 

But until Lambda or a vaccine-resistant strain takes over to the point where it dominates over delta, do you believe that masks, social distancing, sanitizing, etc. don't make any difference? That's what all the states doing "no mask mandates" are saying.

 

That.... is not what I wrote. But at the same time, *masks, social distancing is not a panacea*, and WILL NOT protect people around you beyond very brief encounters. That it's not perfect has zero bearing on whether people should be doing it. That it doesn't make it safe for people to be standing together at a concert, or sharing a stage with a singer, is NOT an equivalent to whether the general populace should be taking as many steps as possible to be safe.

 

If the CDC etc. are correct that the main reason for vaccinated people to wear a mask is to prevent infecting other people, and if you can always maintain distance/be outdoors/etc. when being in the world, it seems that's a potential modus vivendi for the respites between the surges.

 

 

The CDC has NOT said that it FULLY prevents transmission.

 

It's to HELP prevent, not PERFECTLY prevent.

 

It reduces transmission, it has never been perfectly safe. With a higher viral load with delta, it's less effective. Helping to prevent, as a precaution, is a valid action as opposed to doing nothing at all.

[dixonge]

Some comments on streaming live performances vs. in-person live performances would be welcome. Is a streaming performance an acceptable alternative for you while we wait for covid to wane?

One thing that I'm struck by is how the dates for the COVID spikes, match the the natural "flu season". So we see spikes in Oct-Jan and then again July-Aug, just like the flu.

 

I can't find any data showing flu season spikes in summer. Everything I read says Oct-May, max. No other spikes. Can you provide a link?

 

Also, and this is just going by memory from Osterhaus' podcast, COVID spikes have been following erratic patterns. Summer spikes up north, winter spikes down South, etc. Waves hit one part of the country leaving other parts alone, etc. So I'm not seeing any flu/COVID correlations.

 

"The geography of the pandemic is uneven, with ripples and bursts in the Sun Belt over the summer and infections jumping in the Midwest and Mountain states in the fall. "

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/12/with-a-meteoric-rise-in-deaths-talk-of-waves-is-misguided-say-covid-19-modelers/

[Chip McDonald]

It's not going to be even, when there are geographic super spreader events like Sturgis, concerts, and a mish-mash of uncorrelated "local health policy" that is changing - multiplied by school district schedules, local population densities, local population politics, and the waning of vaccination and natural immunity that is not tied to a single point in time. The math of the parameters is set and very obvious. It is no surprise what is happening right now with delta, just as it won't be a surprise if lambda supplants delta.

 

But it's quite telling what's going on with shows.

 

Smart and responsible people are cancelling shows: Stevie Nicks, Garth Brooks ("I must do my part"), Pixies ("this is the right thing to do for our crew and families"), Limp Bizkit ("out of an abundance of caution and concern for the safety of the band, crew and most of all the fans"), Nine Inch Nails, Alan Parsons,et al,

 

 

........ and you've got people in the "other" category: Paul Stanley is infected, Ritchey Medlock makes Lynrd Skynrd cancel, Korn, a lot others. And some that are cancelling because of it *but are burying the reason under wording so as not to offend their more ignorant, political fan base. Ignorant or sociopaths, take your pick, at this point there isn't any other excuse.

 

Kudos to Stevie Nicks whoI think took action before everyone else.

 

 

AND THEN YOU'VE GOT CLAPTON. Who one has to say at this point is actually trying to capitalize on the pandemic, there is no other reasoning for his non-sensical story and angle. Frak him.

 

 

Again, a streaming cryptographic steganography system to stop bootlegging would make the catchet of a "video performance" hold more weight. Youtube could do it, they have the technology and the resources, but I suppose it's not occurred to them yet.

 

 

There are plenty of performances I consider "classic" at this point that are things that, in the past, I would have paid for. But of course today, nobody would pay for anything video because it's going to be on YouTube for free eventually. Do they even have pay-per-view fights anymore? Unlike attempts at crypto attempts of audio that of course alters the original performance/product, cryptographic steganography could stamp each stream uniquely, allowing tracing of copies to a credit card.

 

Lots of non-live performances: there's the Jeff Beck in the tv studio performance that's on YouTube, Peter Frampton things have surfaced from similar tv shoots that are great IMO. Tthere are countless things that present unique confluence of performance x location, circumstance, that present mystique that makes for a "product". âIn particular, if someone is not aware, David Gilmour (and family) have been doing online "performances" since the pandemic began along these lines. There are other artists that have been doing this as well; it's actually been a great thing IMO, the only downside is that there is no way theoretically to monetize it except through Youtube view counts.

 

âWhich could be another angle; provide "reward" tiers for artists to achieve within a time frame, in order to both spur new creativity as well as generate interest/mystique for video performance as a phenomenon.

[Anderton]

Smart and responsible people are cancelling shows

 

It might also be because tickets aren't selling. Having been burned by buying concert tickets a long time ago ("surely people aren't that stupid, things should be okay in August") and then not feeling it was safe to go, I won't be buying any more tickets for quite a while. I doubt that I'm alone.

 

There are other artists that have been doing this as well; it's actually been a great thing IMO, the only downside is that there is no way theoretically to monetize it except through Youtube view counts.

 

That's my "MTV+" proposal. Pay a subscription to see concerts.

[dixonge]

It might also be because tickets aren't selling. Having been burned by buying concert tickets a long time ago ("surely people aren't that stupid, things should be okay in August") and then not feeling it was safe to go, I won't be buying any more tickets for quite a while. I doubt that I'm alone.

Just bought tickets for a concert on Oct. 28 and already having second thoughts. It's at an indoor venue. In Texas...

[Notes_Norton]

I just turned down a gig in a Seminole Indian Casino. I've played that room before, the pay is very good, the staff treats us well and even offers to help schlep the gear, and they send us home with NY Strip Steaks we can put on the grill.

 

BUT

 

It's indoors, crowded, smoking is allowed, and it is in the county with the worst vaccination rate in the area. There are still plenty of Trump signs and flags, protests about masks, and anti-vaxxers in the area. Add Delta running amok in Florida and it seems dangerous.

 

We didn't think it was worth the risk.

 

Fortunately, it was through an agent we've been working with since the early 1990s. She understands and told us to let her know when we are ready to return and she'll bring us back.

 

After being a gigging pro all my life, it's very weird to be turning down good paying and pleasant gigs.

 

But there is no Ctrl+Z on a bad COVID decision.

 

Notes

[Chip McDonald]

Smart and responsible people are cancelling shows

 

It might also be because tickets aren't selling.

 

 

 

People being responsible and not going to concerts in August:

 

 

 

I previously alluded to 2 of the artists above having covid issues, before they announced - I don't know about the rest, but I know one definitely did not have sales issues. One was sitting on the fence, having just played a sold out arena days earlier. I know people doing flyaways for country acts, the MAGA crowd may as well be living in New Zealand as far as they're concerned. I'm sure there are smaller acts that are losing out, and big, but implying they're just saying that because they're not selling tickets isn't the case, particularly in the south east - there are acts that are continuing with no cares at all.

 

Another point: there are plenty of acts that are "youth based", the jam band scene that is just as indifferent as the MAGA crowd.

 

I won't be buying any more tickets for quite a while. I doubt that I'm alone.

 

 

I wish you weren't alone, but a quick scan of "concert august 2021" shows plenty of full houses for many different acts. Garth Brooks filled a 90,000 seat stadium "Mega Spreader Event" a few weeks ago. It looks like the last Rolling Stones show didn't have a shabby turnout. Particularly for these country artists, I see no reason to imply their sales would be anything other than relatively normal.

 

 

That's my "MTV+" proposal. Pay a subscription to see concerts.

 

It won't work in the age of YouTube without a way of "contact tracing" people uploading it. People can already watch endless live concerts on Youtube for free, there is no financial incentive without a scheme to make it a unique experience.

[Anderton]

That's my "MTV+" proposal. Pay a subscription to see concerts.

 

It won't work in the age of YouTube without a way of "contact tracing" people uploading it. People can already watch endless live concerts on Youtube for free, there is no financial incentive without a scheme to make it a unique experience.

 

Well what I proposed in the post was unique, with studios strategically located at US music centers, dedicated to creating special events.

 

It would also give a chance to ensure quality of the audio and video.

[Anderton]

You have a good point. June was Ticketmaster's fourth-largest month for ticket volume, because so many concerts are available. Their net loss was $195,700,000.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/concert-sales-are-reaching-record-levels-despite-surging-delta-variant-n1275899

 

But note the stat was for ticket volume, not dollars. This web site keeps track of which acts are cancelling, which are requiring vaccination, etc., and a cursory read seems to indicate that big-grossing acts are more likely to bail (e.g., NIN).

 

https://liveforlivemusic.com/news/covid-19-concert-cancellation-tracking/

 

Then there's this: "Most U.S. adults have no plans to go to an upcoming live event"

 

https://www.bankrate.com/finance/credit-cards/covid-live-events-poll/

 

This is interesting too (from early August)

 

https://lefsetz.com/wordpress/2021/08/03/re-covid-concerts-long-haulers/

 

So it seems that like covid itself, there is no one-size-fits-all answer. Lots of tickets are selling, people want to go to concerts, people don't want to go to concerts...my takeaway is that pent-up demand is driving a bump. How long the bump will last depends on whether the guinea pigs going to concerts get sick or not. Anecdotally, it seems what gets people take covid seriously is if they know someone who had a bad case or died.

 

Meanwhile, to keep your brain occupied, here's a fun research paper on livestreamed, pre-recording, live stream played back later, etc.: "Corona Concerts: The Effect of Virtual Concert Characteristics on Social Connection and Kama Muta"

 

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.648448/full

 

But what do I know?

[KuruPrionz]

Friday we are playing outdoors on the back deck of a local club. The audience is off yonder a bit.

Saturday a group of trusted and cautious friends are meeting in a large backyard. The host has hired KO, the area's best teppan-yaki (sp?) chef to do his cooking show. Ko juggles knives, catches things behind his back, flips raw eggs onto a knife edge and from there to the grille etc. My friends are Lummi and very well connected in the seafood world, there will be lobster, scallops, etc. And we will play a set or two of music for our lunch.

 

Then we head up to the Semiahmoo resort to play an outdoor BBQ gig, paid. We are allowed to eat in the employee diner but I will pass this time and keep to myself. It's a large open area right on the water, beautiful to watch the sun set.

 

Fall is coming, there won't be many more outside gigs. I've expressed to the bandleader that we should hold off on booking indoor gigs for at least a month and see what the Delta/Lambda situation looks like in terms of clubs being open/hiring and assess the risk at that time.

 

You can't pay me enough to get sick and die, not gonna do it.

[Anderton]

Fall is coming, there won't be many more outside gigs. I've expressed to the bandleader that we should hold off on booking indoor gigs for at least a month and see what the Delta/Lambda situation looks like in terms of clubs being open/hiring and assess the risk at that time.

 

I'm waiting for Omega, because anyone who works with electronics will have...resistance.

[Chip McDonald]

I didn't say *nobody* was having problems, but the artists *I listed* did not appear to, and there is no reason to cast aspersions to what they're saying in turn.

[Chip McDonald]

Meanwhile, to keep your brain occupied, here's a fun research paper on livestreamed, pre-recording, live stream played back later, etc.: "Corona Concerts: The Effect of Virtual Concert Characteristics on Social Connection and Kama Muta"

 

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.648448/full

 

But what do I know?

 

 

I agreed with you and posted many examples supporting live stream music, I'm not sure where the aggro is coming from? I am saying it can't supplant the live-touring industry without a way to serialize the distribution; I'm not saying "it can't be done" (it's been done since the 70's with HBO) or "you can't make money from it", but it's not going to be "Big", "a thing" without it being a big business tied to profit. One can be moved, kama muta, by a live stream of many things - but whether it's viable as a replacement for live touring, even fractionally, I doubt without a reasonable way of controlling the distribution.

 

My post was more about the *technological idea* of what I'm calling "cryptographic video steganography", burying a unique identifier in the video stream so that even if someone tries to use their phone to make a video to put on Youtube, one can find out where it came from. That's all....

[RABid]

The town where I was born has the lowest immunization rate in the state and one of the highest infection rates. They had a 3 night music festival this weekend in the narrow streets of the small downtown. It was wall to wall people, most without a mask. This is the type of music gathering that can only result in backlash.

[Anderton]

I agreed with you and posted many examples supporting live stream music, I'm not sure where the aggro is coming from?

 

No aggro at all, actually it's a compliment...you seem to be the kind of person who likes to keep his brain occupied, and that seemed like good fodder. I don't see you as being part of the cast of "Idiocracy," if you know what I mean

 

I am saying it can't supplant the live-touring industry...

 

Well, to quote myself from a previous post, "You can't replace the irreplaceable...the goal is to come up with workarounds to hold us over." I wouldn't expect workarounds to be ideal...they're workarounds. But hopefully they'd be better than nothing.

[Anderton]

From the latest Lefsetz blog:

 

The most insightful article this week was in the "New York Times":

 

"Britons, Unfazed by High Covid Rates, Weigh Their 'Price of Freedom" - Britain is reporting more than 30,000 new coronavirus cases a day, but the public seems to have moved on. Experts say this could be a glimpse into the future for other countries.": https://nyti.ms/2WHPape

 

Bottom line? They're packing them in at concerts and sports events with impunity, no one seems to be troubled, despite rising covid rates. I can't get this story out of my mind, believing it's a harbinger for the rest of the world, certainly the United States.

[KenElevenShadows]

I think that's absolutely where we're going, unfortunately. In fact, I'd say that many parts of the country are already there.

[Jazzmammal]

Right and this makes my point from earlier. Society is making the choice to live with COVID because people are not going to put up with lockdowns and everything else for the next 2-4 and possible more years. COVID will ALWAYS be with us with variants on top of variants. Vaccination numbers are going up as well as new cases. Remember, in the big picture they are equivalent. Every person who catches it adds to the overall immunity number and many researchers say catching it gives you better immunity than the vaccines.

 

Long COVID. The VA is the largest health care system in the US with over 5 million vets and most are older. The VA has been running tons of long term studies and research in all aspects of COVID. I read a very long detailed article about it including a Q & A with the doctor running everything. The big question to him was what's the risk of long COVID in vaccinated people? He said the studies are not complete but the info he's seen shows that risk is "very low". This was last week and now I can't find that article again but it's out there and that's his answer. Is it definitive? No. Does that mean vaccinated people may still have a problem with Lamda and maybe worse variants going forward? Yes. I totally get what you're saying Chip, if the dumbasses would just get it together we could beat this thing. True, but that's not happening and you have to accept that. It ain't happening.

 

At close to 2 years into this here's the bottom line. The odds of hospitalization, death and long COVID are low. Treatments are much better now. Long COVID has the worst odds at about 8%. That's still pretty good. 92% chance you won't have a problem but it's a risk for sure. BUT, that's for unvaccinated people. We've done all we can do, we got vaccinated and the feeling is why do we have to go through all this crap again? For another 2 years? That ain't happening either. The unvaccinated will catch it, and be innumized that way and some will give in and get vaccinated. Either way, it adds to the overall immunity level. A few will die, a few more will have long COVID. That's life and anybody who's very concerned about this is free to do whatever they want, stay home, wear double masks and a face shield 24/7, it's fine with me.

 

And to bring this back on point, the concerts will go on but the season is almost over anyway. I just got a last minute booking on Catalina again for this weekend. Outdoors, breezy, a short block off the beach but I have to ride a crowded boat for an hour and ten minutes to get there. I think I'll bring a coat and sit outside this time.

 

Bob

[Anderton]

I totally get what you're saying Chip, if the dumbasses would just get it together we could beat this thing. True, but that's not happening and you have to accept that. It ain't happening.

 

Hey! Maybe we should just start a rumor on social media that doctors say impotence is a serious long-term effect of covid-19, but this hasn't been publicized because the doctors are part of a conspiracy, and don't want people to panic.

 

Then you set up vaccinations booths at concerts, and watch people flock to them

[Jazzmammal]

The way this thing mutates, who's to say it's not true?

 

Bob

[KuruPrionz]

Any virus that kills it's host has failed, since the virus will also die.

 

This is an aspect of the mutation process, we are still early into it at this point. Eventually the "failure mutations" will be on the decline and mutations that can live in their host indefinitely will emerge victorious.

None of this has anything to do with our current situation or gigging.

 

I plan on taking a long break when the weather cools down and the rain starts. Outdoor gigs are summer things here and the season will be over soon.

I don't really like the bars much anyway, I've spent far too much of my life babysitting alcoholics already.