OT - Economy improves last 2 years...how about for you?

[stepay]

Now we are two years away from the bottom of the stock market (March 2009), and nearly two years away from the end of the Great Recession (summer of 2009 as defined by the NBER and the traditional way of determining if we're still in one; two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth).

 

So, how goes it for you?

 

I'm not giving credit to any one politician or political group (because I don't believe that, AND that could lead to a banned thread), but there are some blanket conditions that should GENERALLY make things better for people now vs. 2 years ago and even vs. one year ago.

 

The Dow:

March 2009 - 6,400

March 2010 - 10,400

March 2011 - 12,226

 

Unemployment rate:

2009 high - 10.2%

2010 high - 9.7%

2011 high - 9.0%

 

Manufacturing Index:

March 2009 - 37

March 2010 - 57

March 2011 - 60

 

Consumer Confidence:

March 2009 - 30

March 2010 - 46

March 2011 - 70

 

This have been improving for 2 years now, and when you look at the end points, even though it's been gradual, it's a long way. No reason to believe we should be headed in the other direction in the foreseeable future either in my opinion (doesn't mean there still aren't challenges ahead).

 

Just curious if this group has seen a rebound...things better at work? More gigs? Better paying gigs?

 

Just an interest of mine, and I'm just curious.

[Outkaster]

Less gigs and now the gas prices are rising like they did in 2008 and that was the summer I gigged the most.

[Bill H.]

More gigs? Better paying gigs?

Dramatically more gigs and better paying gigs - just of a much different type. I'm living off gigs again.

 

But that's not saying much. I can live high on two grand a month. There's many in here who would feel crippled if they don't make that in a week.

 

No stocks, no 401, no problem there. I guess I could spin it like that

 

I will say this: I think that life is a lot less stressful since I've reduced it to just the basics.

[Synthoid]

So, how goes it for you?

 

 

The Dow:

March 2009 - 6,400

March 2010 - 10,400

March 2011 - 12,226

 

 

Even with the Dow over 12,000, I'm still waiting for my stocks to "come back".

 

And like everyone else--higher gas prices and fewer gigs haven't brought a smile to my face.

 

[Steve Nathan]

[Bill H.]

Didn't make it to the end. Do they all burst?

[Song80s]

So, how goes it for you?

 

 

The Dow:

March 2009 - 6,400

March 2010 - 10,400

March 2011 - 12,226

 

 

Even with the Dow over 12,000, I'm still waiting for my stocks to "come back".

 

And like everyone else--higher gas prices and fewer gigs haven't brought a smile to my face.

 

 

California ( at least in the SF Bay area) has not recovered. A slight macro statistical improvement at the national level is nice and long overdue, but

the core issue is solving unemployment and solving underemployment.

 

Unfortunately, rapidly increasing gas prices helped to trigger our least recession

thus I am very concerned about that today.

[Ken Beaumont]

Hate to burst your bubbles but:

US GAS Price Average:

Aug 2008 (Immediately before the Crash) $3.70

Today $3.40 expected to hit $4.00 by Summer

Between the crash and now gas has been as low as $1.50.

The cost of goods especially food is expected to sky rocket;

Inflation during the down turn was 2.3%

 

Unemployment has remained nearly double the 5.7% in the 8 years prior to the crash.

 

The Dow is doing better so long term, my 401k is now where it was before the crash.

 

US Gross Debt:

2008 - 9.9 Trillion Dollars

2010 - 13.10 Trillion Dollars

 

 

Trade Deficit:

Deficit Clock

 

My gigs have remained nearly constant. But I have been laid off and it took 3 months to find a comparable job. So I'm not jumping for joy anytime soon.

[cnegrad]

Ever so slight improvement in bookings for us. Not buying into a positive financial outlook though; too many threatening things on the horizon to think that our current plateau will sustain into a long run. Also, the ramifications from the downturn will have a ripple effect that will continue to be felt for a very long time.

 

If anything, the downturn has taught us to be much better stewards of our finances going forward. But the economic and political climate is such that these forces will prevent us from benefiting from our newfound wisdom for quite some time.

[Fusker]

No raises or cost of living adjustments (the last 3 years) and 3 days of furlough last year...so unless there has been deflation, I'm not cashing in on the improvement yet.

 

Although my rental property has a much more stable tenanant than the one I had to constantly threaten last year...so that's an improvement!

[Tonysounds]

Negative. Gigs are paying less, and many clubs are doing away with live entertainment here as they simply cant afford it. Many gigs are going to the door and typically, these gigs dont even provide PA. So while many of my more emotionally rewarding gigs are drying up, at least one of the bands I play with is doing well because it plays the music most people want to hear. The trade-off is that most of my cadre is not coming out too often as that is the music we railed against forever. But the band is growing so thats the positive.

Everything is getting more expensive, and my salary is not keeping up. And frankly, its a little early to be posting 2011 figures for anything on March 1, so Ill take your initial enthusiasm with a grain of salt.

Lots of ground to be made up and work to be done.

 

[Fusker]

Well, in fairness, he is comparing numbers from the last three months of March...so that is legit

[burningbusch]

You know the Great Depression was "officially" over in the Spring of 1933, a mere 3.5 years. Of course the devastating effects lasted throughout the 1930s ending only with WW II. My take is, it's disingenuous to call the Great Recession over when unemployment is way too high. If you look at U-6 there are nearly 25 million people unemployed or underemployed. New jobs numbers remain dismal.

 

Most people's net worth comes from the value of their home and their retirement account, making most Americans significantly poorer than they were four or five years ago.

 

Many state governments are in crisis.

 

Yeah, we aren't staring into the abyss but it sure ain't all rosy either.

 

Busch.

[yannis D]

If this is thread about american economy, it justifies it's title: you have a better economy now, so better gigs and life for musicians (and i'm happy for you).

But if the question goes to all forumites, i have to admit that, over here, we're going down faster than any other time of our history. The economy is sinking, gigs are getting less and less and the money is going down as well - we are happy if we have the gig - the question "how much doe it pay" is not important any more. We have no reasons to be optimistic on this part of the world anyway...

[Cygnus64]

Economy improves last 2 years...how about for you?

Gigs-waaay down. Arranging- good.

[Ken Beaumont]

Yannis D, I wish you the best. Your right, your economy has been hit hard. Unfortunately, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the US could follow the same path as Iceland, Greece, Spain etc. it will just take longer.

[ProfD]

I won't feel the economy is improving until unemployment dips below 5%. There is only one way to fix that stat.

[yannis D]

Yannis D, I wish you the best. Your right, your economy has been hit hard. Unfortunately, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the US could follow the same path as Iceland, Greece, Spain etc. it will just take longer.

dear Toano

Despite of USA's huge debt, there will never be a sinking in your economy. If this happens, it will be World War III. So let's hope you'll be healthy. You have too big an economy to go down - we're just small fish in a big bowl...

 

[Griffinator]

I won't feel the economy is improving until unemployment dips below 5%. There is only one way to fix that stat.

 

Actually, as more and more people strike out into self-employment, the unemployment reports will continue to be unnaturally high compared to what we are accustomed to seeing. There are a lot of flaws in the reporting, and this new trend is throwing a rather large monkey wrench into the works.

 

Frankly, people taking the plunge into self-employment is exactly what the doctor ordered as a remedy for manufacturing being exported to China. When all is said and done, we need more business owners and fewer people dependent on someone else to give them a job.

[Synthoid]

Unfortunately, rapidly increasing gas prices helped to trigger our least recession thus I am very concerned about that today.

 

Food and fuel prices are rising almost every other day here.

 

What annoys me are stores that raise prices, even before they have to pay an increase! The items on the shelves that they bought at a lower price are suddenly increased... before their new order arrives at the higher price. Horrors!

 

[therealvicz]

Better for the taxpayer for people to be unemployed than being paid to do non-jobs as bureaucrats in the public sector....

[Song80s]

Unfortunately, rapidly increasing gas prices helped to trigger our least recession thus I am very concerned about that today.

 

Food and fuel prices are rising almost every other day here.

 

What annoys me are stores that raise prices, even before they have to pay an increase! The items on the shelves that they bought at a lower price are suddenly increased... before their new order arrives at the higher price. Horrors!

 

 

why sure, Big Oil has had it all their way for decades. And when Congress looks into it, they say its ' complicated and nothing is wrong ".

 

which is exactly what Americans said( there is something very wrong) with the sub prime real estate debacle/Wall Street/mortgage-backed securities and CDOs back in 2007. It blew up the economy in 2007 and the WH/congress bailed them out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_(2007present)

And the price of oil nearly tripled from $50 to $147 from early 2007 to 2008.

 

Americans should be concerned. And watch how the Dow is freaking out- down 168 points today.

 

[Synthoid]

And watch how the Dow is freaking out- down 168 points today.

 

Partially due to the normal "correction"... but mostly because of the imaginary oil shortage. From what I've heard, there's plenty out there and more in reserves, but hey, the oil companies need higher profits!

 

[Song80s]

And watch how the Dow is freaking out- down 168 points today.

 

Partially due to the normal "correction"... but mostly because of the imaginary oil shortage. From what I've heard, there's plenty out there and more in reserves, but hey, the oil companies need higher profits!

 

 

the stock market has always been manipulated by the big players. Little investors watch out. I have friends who manage large funds- their # 1 objective is capital

(principle) preservation.

 

[Dave Pierce]

I have two perspectives on this, my day job and my music. I'm just a weekend warrior in my music, so I'm not sure how well my perspective translates to the pros around here. But our Santana Tribute Band was poised for better paying gigs, and more of them, in 2008. What happened instead was we were lucky to keep the gigs we had. Almost none of our gigs got higher pay, and a few of them got lower pay. It seems like 2011 might be better, but it's definitely too early to tell.

 

My day job perspective is similar. My company builds infrastructure for startup companies in the heart of the Silicon Valley. While I do have a couple of non-US customers, my perspective is very much a US perspective, and it is a US technology perspective.

 

2009 was absolutely dismal. We got lean and mean in a big hurry, and just barely survived. The early part of 2010 wasn't much better. We always had enough work to somehow keep the doors open, but it was a constant struggle. You didn't see any "gee I love my new keyboard" threads started by me during this time period.

 

Q3 of 2010 saw marked improvement. Part of that was one really large job that caused the reverse problem for us. We could barely hire fast enough, even in this employer's market. But even when that large job ended, things have stayed much busier than they had been in a couple of years. We've grown our staff, and last month we moved into a larger office.

 

I know a lot of people are still out of work, and that nothing is encouraging for those people until they get an income stream. I totally get that.

 

But, I think things are on the upswing, and we'll probably see a few years of decent growth now, barring some catastrophe. I do not expect to see the kind of crazy bubble growth that we saw in the last three recoveries. The does mean that unemployment will shrink very slowly. I know in many ways that is a bad thing. Despite that, I think the slow recovery will be a good thing overall. The last two recoveries were fueled by crazy bubbles (the dot-com bubble, then the housing bubble). Those bubbles are great while they are inflating, but the burst causes much harm.

 

This downturn was severe enough to get people thinking. We needed that. This idea that you can buy everything you want on credit, and pay it off later because there is always a growing bubble somewhere (stock market, home equity) -- this is a silly idea. It was hurting our economy, and -- dare I say it -- our culture. I'm no reactionary, and in many ways I am apolitical, but I think the generation that was the parents of the Boomers and that generations' parents had attitudes towards work, responsibility and consumption that were FAR more beneficial to society than the attitudes of the descendants (myself included). Hopefully we'll all start living more within our means, be a little more willing to simplify, and a little more self-reliant.

 

Time will tell, as always.

 

--Dave

 

[Steve Force]

Great Post, Dave!

[Synthoid]

I'm no reactionary, and in many ways I am apolitical, but I think the generation that was the parents of the Boomers and that generations' parents had attitudes towards work, responsibility and consumption that were FAR more beneficial to society than the attitudes of the descendants (myself included). Hopefully we'll all start living more within our means, be a little more willing to simplify, and a little more self-reliant.

 

What concerns me more is the next generation. Instead of wanting to "have the same as their parents," many of them seek much more. My younger stepson is an excellent example: both he and his wife had a nice townhouse, huge HDTV with an extensive video collection (mostly blue-ray), brand new furniture, and expensive exercise equipment before they were married... and they dine out much more often than my wife and I ever did.

 

 

[Griffinator]

And watch how the Dow is freaking out- down 168 points today.

 

Partially due to the normal "correction"... but mostly because of the imaginary oil shortage. From what I've heard, there's plenty out there and more in reserves, but hey, the oil companies need higher profits!

 

 

At risk of dragging this further toward a political discussion....

 

The oil companies aren't the ones driving the price of a barrel of oil - the speculators in the commodities market (i.e. the people who used to speculate in the real estate market) are driving the futures prices up. Hence, gas stations everywhere raise the price of their gasoline because the news said oil was going up (not because the cost to them has increased)...

 

Thank Goldman Sachs, not Big Oil...

[Synthoid]

The oil companies aren't the ones driving the price of a barrel of oil - the speculators in the commodities market (i.e. the people who used to speculate in the real estate market) are driving the futures prices up.

 

And I thought the Obama administration put some limits on that back when gas shot up to $4.00.

 

Oops... now I am getting political.

[Michelle ggurl]

Gigs were up for me in 2010 for the first time in several years, but that is not saying much at all since the project I poured my heart and soul into for 7 years was pretty much a bust. Then I dropped out of all participation in music (except meager practicing on my own when I could) to have a baby.

 

That said, the pay for gigs seems ridiculously low and there are fewer gigging opportunities because there are several venues that have shuttered their doors or changed format to DJs or no music at all to survive. I am probably making less per gig on average now than I was 15 years ago. Lame. If I were doing this for my sole income I'd be freaking out.