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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Joe Muscara #3046290 05/28/20 08:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe Muscara
I find it really frustrating that people are so willing to throw the baby out with the bathwater (in fact, I never hear anyone use that expression anymore). People insist that if the system is broken, it must be thrown out, instead of seeing if it can be fixed.

I put part of the blame on technology. Devices used to be repaired by replacing the parts that screwed up. Then it went to board swaps, then it went to "just replace the entire thing." People replace mates rather than try to work things out. People switch jobs because a workplace sucks, and management is too convinced of their own self-importance to listen to the people who actually make the organization run.

There is so much emphasis on productivity that creation is all that matters. There is no longer the patience or desire to maintain.

Overall, a lot of our current problems are the result of selfishness, a sense of entitlement, and an inability to recognize that a healthy society benefits all individuals in that society. The "looking out for #1" ethos is ultimately destructive to #1, not just numbers #2 - infinity.

It's not just "all about me." If someone came to me and said "If you pay $50 more in taxes, veterans will be taken care of properly, and you won't trip over junkies in the street," I'd say that's a lot more important than buying 10 coffees at Starbucks. Sure...here's $50. It's worth it.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3046308 05/28/20 09:56 PM
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There's a country that conducts extensive commerce with China (which continued during the initial outbreak), has a population of 23.6 million, and as of today has 441 cases of COVID-19 with 7 deaths (based on population, that would be equivalent to about 95 deaths in the US instead of 100,000[I/]). This article tells how Taiwan did it, basically by leaving nothing to chance.

Would Americans put up with enforced quarantines, fines for flagrant violators, neighborhood wardens who deliver food and check on people, and having to provide detailed health and travel information upon arriving in the country, to cut the death toll by 99.999905%? Probably not, if they think just wearing a mask is too much to ask for you.

Granted, the US is a bigger country, and apples to oranges comparisons are inevitable. But still, suppose dealing with the virus here was [I]100 times more difficult than Taiwan...that would still be only 9,500 deaths instead of 10 times that.

It's interesting to see the results that come from different cultures having different priorities.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3046316 05/28/20 11:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
It's interesting to see the results that come from different cultures having different priorities.

here is a new result

Sweden has the highest daily coronavirus death rate in the world – and it’s getting worse

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-sweden-lockdown-death-rate-144650769.html


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
PrairieGuy #3046319 05/28/20 11:29 PM
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Originally Posted by PrairieGuy
The fact is

Usually any sentence that starts with this means that the opposite is occurring wink

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3046327 05/29/20 01:22 AM
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Craig, even though it's popular and easy to do, comparing the US to S. Korea is useless. It's not the relative size of the populations it's the relative sizes of the countries themselves which is exactly the same reasons why highly dense populations living in small areas can have great mass transit and high speed trains which it's totally impractical here outside of the few obvious places.

The biggest thing to me in controlling this virus is the Asian habit of wearing masks for the last 75 years if someone has so much as a sniffle. I was in Japan from 65 to 67 and I saw it there all the time. They live right on top of each other so sanitation, overall cleanliness and respect for others is ingrained into their culture which is quite admirable. This goes back to the end of WW2 because they were in shambles and I'm sure that included health care so they wore masks to give some protection while they're slowly cleaning up rubble with who knows what in it. I was in northern Japan only 40 clicks from where the Fukishima nuclear plant is now. At that time they didn't have a sewer system, they had covered "Benjo" ditches. Open sewers maybe a foot deep and a foot or so wide with boards covering them parallel to the sidewalks in some areas. If I was living like that I'd be wearing a mask too and now it's just normal to them. Contact tracing is very easy because they're not taking flights to visit relatives 2,000 miles away. Most families live together in the same house including grandparents or very close to each other in the same neighborhood.

S. Korea is 38,000 square miles. Maine is 35,000. S. Korea is 52 million people in an area 10% bigger than Maine. See the point? Of course testing, tracing and all that is much easier there. Plus everybody was already wearing masks and those that wern't put them on immediately at the first sign of this virus. It's their culture. I doubt the government had to supply masks, all those households already had them so I don't think comparing the S. Korean response or Japan's for that matter to the to the US has any relevance at all.

Another point concerning supplies and this is just one of many examples. Right after Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico FEMA sent about 500 ventilators to them. They sat in a warehouse untouched until this virus happened and somebody remembered them. They were useless because they need regular maintenance, they can't just sit there untouched for years and they're expensive. This is one of many reasons we didn't have huge stockpiles of these things waiting around for a pandemic to happen. That interview I talked about with the head of Mass General in Boston talked about that too. The supply issue is not as simple as it looks from reading a few news reports.

Also, the feds do not have the responsibility to have supplies on hand to cover every state in the country. The states have primary responsibility for that but yes, the feds should have enough to help with hot spots in certain locations which they mostly did. Lots of articles I won't bother posting tell about governors of many states removing these sorts of pandemic supplies from their budgets over the last five years. This is because governors have the power of a line item veto which the president doesn't have. The NSC would have little to do with that. If you want to blame the feds for their response to this you may as well blame our entire constitutional system. Get rid of the states, turn them into mere districts and have a huge, strong central government. It's so easy to forget we are not a simple democratic country, we are a democratic republic and the states have a lot of autonomy under that system. Many times Trump forgets that too.

Finally, you're referring to the "total cases" number of 1.7 million as if they are all current confirmed cases. They are not current, that is the total count since day one. As I pointed out in that Wisconsin chart, they show the percentage of current cases as 37% of the total which sounds reasonable to me. That would make the US current case count around 630,000 and that is the number we should be referring to now. That US case page we all see should say 1.7 million total cases, roughly 630,000 current cases, roughly 970,000 recovered and 100,000 dead. Or whatever they think those numbers should be on a nationwide basis, I'm just using Wisconsin as an example. if these numbers were presented that way it would not look so scary. Personally I think that's deliberate to make us be careful. Yes, I can almost agree with that but still...

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3046347 05/29/20 04:40 AM
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Here is a great article from San Francisco about testing a "Census Tract" in the Mission District, they did 4,000 tests in a very short period of time. There is so much here to read and digest I won't even comment on it. Yeah, yeah, hold the applause...

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/28...ow-wage-essential-workers-san-francisco/

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Dave Holloway #3046373 05/29/20 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave Holloway
Originally Posted by PrairieGuy
The fact is

Usually any sentence that starts with this means that the opposite is occurring wink
Sometimes, but not always. I notice that you didn't provide any opposing data... wink

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3046375 05/29/20 01:33 PM
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It's a big world out there and people approach it from a lot of different angles. For myself, and many like me, we have heightened awareness and defense mechanisms that can be easily triggered by seeing people wearing masks, I'm actually a fairly pedestrian dude compared to some I know but seeing people in masks is really messing with my defense instincts.
There have always been a lot of desperate people out there running around but that number is likely to increase, perhaps exponentially, as this situation continues to evolve. The more criminal element of society will undoubtedly tend to view people running around with surgical masks on as weak and possible prey. We're already beginning to see some chaos erupt out there.

Last edited by Greg Mein; 05/29/20 01:36 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3046376 05/29/20 01:44 PM
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The way I understand it isthis -- those masks are not so much to protect the person wearing it, but to protect others.

If an asymptomatic person or one who doesn't yet have symptoms and wears a mask, he/she is protecting you and I from getting COVID by keeping his/her virus mist mostly contained.

But the person not wearing the mask is putting other people at risk if he/she is positive.

So the way I see it is this, I wear the mask as a courtesy to others. I am telling you it's saver to be nearer to me.

For those who are not wearing a mask, I consider them a potential danger, a potential threat, and stay more than 6' away from them.

I have a very strong immune system. I get a mild 2 day cold once every 15 or so years, and that's it. I am on zero medications, and can't remember the last time I was on meds for any sickness. If I get COVID, it will probably be either asymptomatic or a very mild case (but there are no guarantees). I don't like wearing the mask, it's uncomfortable, it steams up my glasses, it ends up putting my mustache in my mouth, but I wear it as a courtesy to others.

I just believe potentially protecting others is the civilized thing to do.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3046377 05/29/20 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
The way I understand it isthis -- those masks are not so much to protect the person wearing it, but to protect others.

So the way I see it is this, I wear the mask as a courtesy to others.

I just believe potentially protecting others is the civilized thing to do.

Insights and incites by Notes

Just to be clear, I understand that the focus is mainly on the covid thing and my message is not meant to insinuate that you shouldn't wear a mask. I'm simply trying to make people aware of a different perspective that could be important and may not have been considered by some. It may be as simple as losing the surgical mask and wearing a bandanna to look a little more badass! That may appear to be flippant but it's important to remember that covid is not the only threat out there and the tables are already gradually turning away from it.

Last edited by Greg Mein; 05/29/20 02:24 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3046439 05/29/20 07:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
Craig, even though it's popular and easy to do, comparing the US to S. Korea is useless. It's not the relative size of the populations it's the relative sizes of the countries themselves which is exactly the same reasons why highly dense populations living in small areas can have great mass transit and high speed trains which it's totally impractical here outside of the few obvious places.

Well, as I said, "Granted, the US is a bigger country, and apples to oranges comparisons are inevitable. But still, suppose dealing with the virus here was 100 times more difficult than Taiwan...that would still be only 9,500 deaths instead of 10 times that." But, it works both ways. Countries with developed mass transit systems and dense populations make it easier to test and trace, but it also puts people in closer proximity (like New York), which encourages the spread. But there's no denying that regardless of size, population, etc., South Korea was prepared in case there was another pandemic. I don't see how that could not have made a difference in their ability to contain it.

Of course the US would find it harder to manage a country that's so much larger, where the virus can start on the coasts, and leisurely work its way over thousands of miles to the interior. But the flip side is that the interior should have known it was coming and been prepared. Now several interior states are maxing out ICU beds. No matter how you want to slice it, the US was not prepared, and didn't react as fast as other countries that have had more success in containing the virus.

On a different topic, I find the material at http://www.graphics.reuters.com very helpful in getting my head around what's happening. Scroll down to "Where US Coronavirus Cases Are on the Rise." You'll find both encouraging and discouraging signs. For example, it's interesting to track what's happening on the states that have opened, or never locked down significantly in the first place. It's very encouraging that deaths are on the way down, but with cases on the rise and deaths being a lagging indicator, we don't know what's next. Note that the curves are all normalized to peaks, not absolute, but in a way that makes the information much easier to assimilate and understand. (Unfortunately, you were right - it seems your concerns about Wisconsin not opening up correctly have been confirmed.)

Fingers crossed.

Last edited by Anderton; 05/29/20 07:47 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3046521 05/30/20 06:16 AM
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What I really need to know is whether I should be drinking Coke or Pepsi. I don't want anybody in public to think I'm racist or uneducated, or irresponsible because I'm drinking the wrong soft drink. I want to make sure I drink the socially acceptable soft drink but I haven't been told which one to drink yet. Can somebody please help me? Maybe there's a Facebook group I could join.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3046549 05/30/20 01:07 PM
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On the original subject, "Social Distancing Is Not Enough: We will need a comprehensive strategy to reduce the sort of interactions that can lead to more infections."

Quote
Today, states are emerging from the lockdown phase of the crisis and entering a queasy period of reopening. But offices, schools, stores, theaters, restaurants, bars, gyms, fitness centers, and museums will have no semblance of normalcy until we learn how to be safe—and feel safe—inside.

To open these spaces, we must be guided by science and expertise. Fortunately for us, researchers are discovering the secrets of how COVID-19 spreads with a combination of clever modeling and detective work.

Before we review the relevant studies and draw out lessons for the future of the great indoors, a brief word of humility. Our understanding of this disease is dynamic. Today’s conventional wisdom could be tomorrow’s busted myth. Think of these studies not as gospels, but as clues in a gradually unraveling mystery.



3. COVID-PROOF PUBLIC ENTERTAINMENT



These stories, combined with the science of large-droplet and airborne transmission, suggest that social distancing isn’t enough: We need saliva control too. Other countries are doing so, already. Germany has reportedly banned singing at religious services, and South Korea has prohibited spitting in its professional baseball league.

Spittle rules won’t be enough to make our public entertainment places safer, either. We will need a comprehensive strategy to reduce the sort of interactions that can lead to more infections. “When we go back to sports stadiums and theaters, people are going to have to adjust their expectations,” says Joseph Allen, an assistant professor of exposure-assessment science at Harvard’s T. H. Chan School of Public Health.

First, he told me, full-capacity stadiums will be impossible in the social-distancing age, and most attendees will be advised to wear masks. Second, everything that can be made touchless should be, including ticketing and concessions. “To avoid clustering at the hot-dog stands, stadium food vendors should serve as much as possible directly to people’s seats,” Allen said. Third, public-entertainment venues will have to reimagine queuing. “Our theories about crowd control, which are dominated by concerns for physical security, typically squeeze large numbers of people into a scarce number of heavily guarded entrances,” he said. But in a pandemic, tightly packed queues are the very hazard we want to avoid. “It’ll be very important to reduce crowding at the entrance of stadiums and theaters by adding additional entrance points or staggering admissions by time to avoid overcrowding, Allen said.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
J. Dan #3046571 05/30/20 04:38 PM
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Originally Posted by J. Dan
What I really need to know is whether I should be drinking Coke or Pepsi. I don't want anybody in public to think I'm racist or uneducated, or irresponsible because I'm drinking the wrong soft drink.

Drinking either one shows a lack of understanding of today's realities. To find out if you're drinking the right beverage, look at the bottle's label. If it doesn't display a two-digit number (higher is better) followed by the word "proof," you're drinking the wrong beverage.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3046581 05/30/20 05:03 PM
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yeahthat grin


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
J. Dan #3046603 05/30/20 06:00 PM
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Originally Posted by J. Dan
What I really need to know is whether I should be drinking Coke or Pepsi. I don't want anybody in public to think I'm racist or uneducated, or irresponsible because I'm drinking the wrong soft drink. I want to make sure I drink the socially acceptable soft drink but I haven't been told which one to drink yet. Can somebody please help me? Maybe there's a Facebook group I could join.

You need to get wise to the ways of the street, you mix the Coke with the Jack Daniels. It's the rock star breakfast of champions dating back decades!

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3046644 05/30/20 10:36 PM
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Here is a different take on how to get to work partially and still slowly defeat COVID.

I don't know if it would work, and if it did it would need complete compliance, something some people in the US are not ready to do, but it's an interesting concept anyway. It's about a 16 minute long TED talk.

A COVID-19 "exit" strategy to end lockdown and reopen the economy

Notes


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3046796 05/31/20 11:27 PM
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I really, really hate to bring this up but I feel I must. Craig if I'm wrong please just nuke this post, I'll understand.

First, I'll say this right up front so there's no doubt where I stand. Floyd was murdered, plain and simple. Doesn't matter what he did or what his record is or was or even if he had a record. The cops murdered him and they will go down for it.

A lot of what we've been nicely and politely writing about COVID 19 just went out the window. We must control the entrances to stadiums, we must control our actions to help contain this virus. All of us need to pull together in order to beat or at least contain this thing. We as musicians are mourning the loss of our gigs. We need to get everybody back to work so we can have at least part of our lives back and to avoid another Depression.

We wring our hands in sympathy because the minority communities especially the black community, is getting hit harder than everybody else. So here we have the hardest hit community with the highest percentage of untested virus cases and what happens? Not the majority but enough to make an impact, decides to go out and riot all over the country not just for one quick protest but for days with no end in sight until the National Guard rolls in with heavy equipment. Contact tracing? Oh sure, no problem.

ER nurse. "Do you know who you came in contact with who may have been infected?"

Patient: "Oh yeah, well, it was last week when I was out looting the Best Buy store with about a hundred other people, Some of them didn't look like they were feeling too good, I'll see if I can get some numbers for you."

Right, that's gonna happen.

I know you shouldn't write things when you're upset and I'm really upset right now. My problem is I tend to write in blunt terms. Am I being too blunt now? Am I being too insensitive? I don't know but I do know I'm pissed. Forget the underlying politics of this, forget the racial implications, just focus on the medical. Putting all this rioting together with all the bars and beaches reopening with huge crowds, this is bad. This could ruin any chance we had (if we had any chance) of getting things somewhat back to normal over the next few months.

You're right Craig, the US was unprepared. What do you think they would have done in S. Korea if riots like this had broken out all over?

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3046820 06/01/20 02:52 AM
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Here's why I'm not going to nuke it: There wasn't any politics, pro or con, like trashing a political party or particular political figure. There was a sensitivity toward the racial problems that still exist in this country. And the fact remains that many of us are musicians and like it or not, studios are closed, gigging is closed, touring is closed. That takes away a LOT of an occupation. It's like saying bookkeepers can't use spreadsheets anymore.

So it's crucial we know what the hell is going on so we can react accordingly. If we can...

However, there are three comments I would make. Admittedly, in many of the early images of the protest, people were wearing masks and seeming to maintain distance while there was still a sense of order. But, protestors are not unique. I think many folks took it at face value when they saw headlines about Federal and state governments saying it was time to open things up, and that the virus was under control. So they went to pool parties in the Ozarks, beach parties in Florida and California, bars in Wisconsin, restaurants that were open (whether they practiced social distancing or not), and hey...might as well do protests, too. "We're okay, right? Body count is going down, and we're under 50. No problem with #boomerremover." Don't know if we would have seen any of this when the headlines were about exponential rates of death in New York, and that it was a harbinger for the rest of the country.

Another comment is that it's important to differentiate between protestors and looters. In the early phases, this was about protestors. Once the protests got traction, looters saw an opening. Looters have no political, ideological, racial, or moral affiliation. They'll come in after a tornado, earthquake, hurricane, riots...it doesn't matter. They see an opportunity whenever law enforcement or government is overwhelmed, and they'll run with it. Literally.

My daughter lives in LA, where things are particularly bad. She pointed out that the places being smashed aren't banks, but stores with goods that can be re-sold at a high value, which brings me to my final comment.

One-third of the renters in LA will not be able to pay their rent this month. Unemployment rates are astronomical. Jobs like being an Uber driver have the twin issues of a) people aren't going anywhere much anyway, and b) you're not about to test people before they get into your car. And people were driving Uber in the first place because they either couldn't, or didn't want to, have regular jobs.

To quote Bob Dylan, which seems particularly appropriate given the 60s protest/riot flashback some of us are experiencing: "When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose."

Frankly, at this point, the words of wisdom we need aren't coming from our leaders, but from a line in Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure, when people from the future asked Bill & Ted what wisdom they could impart. After an awkward silence trying to think of something to say, IIRC is was Bill who said "Be excellent to each other."

Works for me.

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