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Re: Corona Virus thread
Stokely #3036572 04/03/20 05:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Stokely
No doubt, my post was sarcastic, probably wasn't clear.

I wasn't sure, had to check laugh Hopefully everyone else reading this shares your opinion.


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Re: Corona Virus thread
zephonic #3036582 04/03/20 06:29 PM
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Just read that Adam Schlesinger from Fountains of Wayne has passed away. He was 52 and I don't think he had any health issues.

The only song I really knew well that he wrote was "That Thing You Do"--I just am out of touch about a lot of bands and had only heard the name Fountains of Wayne...now listening to them on youtube, VERY catchy songwriting and I think I'll be checking them out more now.

I'm 52. This is pretty scary. Supposedly he was feeling better then took a sudden turn for the worse with breathing problems.

Re: Corona Virus thread
Jazzmammal #3036591 04/03/20 07:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
...
One point in that article that I completely agree with is idea of counting as a fatality someone in their 80's who caught the virus and died. Friends and myself have discussed this point many times. All of us know or knew people 85 years old or older over the years. My father passed at 87. When anybody gets to that advanced age they really do have one foot in the grave and catching a new virus is just one of many factors that could push them over the edge. To simply say they died of COVID 19 and get counted as a virus death is not right imho. If anyone reading this is that age, I'm sorry but I'm speaking the truth and you probably know it all too well. I'm 74 if that helps any. To use Italy again, they have the oldest population in the world and a large percentage of their elderly deaths were 84 and older.

We count them in the Influenza case/death counts, in statistics, in the census, so I consider that to really not be the case. I get what you're saying, but that's like saying a guy in his 60s with high blood pressure who had a stroke and died didn't die from a stroke. Cause of death is cause of death. That's why medical statements will list "underlying factors" as contributing sometimes.


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Re: Corona Virus thread
zephonic #3036594 04/03/20 07:14 PM
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It only takes a few stupid people to make things a whole lot worse. 2 cases in Kentucky, 3 weeks ago before it got really bad a man was diagnosed with it in Kentucky. He let everyone know that he was not going to self quarantine. He did not feel that bad and if he wanted to he would go to bars and restaurants. A few days later his wife was expressing displeasure to the press about how people were so mean to them. She seemed shocked that people did not want them around.

Now the governor has restricted travel to other states and ordered that people who do have to travel across states lines are to quarantine themselves for two weeks once they return. This is because some neighboring states were slow to enact restrictions and have a much higher percentage of cases. A woman is suing the governor and attorney general because she has the right to go to Ohio to visit family and enjoy the state parks there and should be able to return without having to self quarantine.

Re: Corona Virus thread
Mighty Motif Max #3036604 04/03/20 07:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Mighty Motif Max
Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
...
One point in that article that I completely agree with is idea of counting as a fatality someone in their 80's who caught the virus and died. Friends and myself have discussed this point many times. All of us know or knew people 85 years old or older over the years. My father passed at 87. When anybody gets to that advanced age they really do have one foot in the grave and catching a new virus is just one of many factors that could push them over the edge. To simply say they died of COVID 19 and get counted as a virus death is not right imho. If anyone reading this is that age, I'm sorry but I'm speaking the truth and you probably know it all too well. I'm 74 if that helps any. To use Italy again, they have the oldest population in the world and a large percentage of their elderly deaths were 84 and older.

We count them in the Influenza case/death counts, in statistics, in the census, so I consider that to really not be the case. I get what you're saying, but that's like saying a guy in his 60s with high blood pressure who had a stroke and died didn't die from a stroke. Cause of death is cause of death. That's why medical statements will list "underlying factors" as contributing sometimes.

Yeah, not to mention that many of those older deaths in Italy were caused by lack of adequate care, often due to ventilator shortages. It's not like they shrivelled up and died, doctors decided that a younger patient should get the ventilator. Obviously, statistics and models are important, but we can also rely on the anecdotal evidence of testimonials from healthcare workers in hard-hit areas. They know what it's like, and they wouldn't wish it on anyone else.


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Re: Corona Virus thread
Jazzmammal #3036632 04/03/20 09:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
Originally Posted by ksoper
[Tell that to someone who just lost a friend or family member.

Dude. You can say that about every single thing that causes somebody's death. Uncle Joe was killed in a car crash. It's a tragedy for him and his family but not a big deal in the context of millions of people. Nobody including me is being flippant about this. That statement is just my opinion nothing more but the more I think about it the more I'm standing by it.

Bob

This touches me personally every fucking day my wife enters the hospital. Oh, and you may want to read this thread.

RIP Joe Diffie

Re: Corona Virus thread
ksoper #3036642 04/03/20 10:01 PM
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filmed NW DC today, all very near the office building where I work. Unable to embed video, sorry

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=63&v=eZpeUlapUzg&feature=emb_title


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Re: Corona Virus thread
davedoerfler #3036693 04/04/20 09:53 AM
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Originally Posted by davedoerfler
filmed NW DC today, all very near the office building where I work. Unable to embed video, sorry

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=63&v=eZpeUlapUzg&feature=emb_title



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Re: Corona Virus thread
zephonic #3036728 04/04/20 05:44 PM
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Originally Posted by zephonic
However, I believe in intellectual honesty and am aware of my own biases and prejudices. I'm a layman unaccustomed to medical jargon, so chances are that Dr. Krumholz understands the study better than I do. I have emailed him with my questions. If he replies, I'll report back.

So he replied this morning:

Hi. Thanks for your note. This is the link that should have been used…

https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200642




I find it odd that the NYT article linked to the wrong study (and it hasn’t been corrected as of now), but whatever.

I’m actually gonna read this, as a quick glance didn’t reveal anything about a 30% false negative rate, but as promised I will refrain from posting about it in this thread.

Re: Corona Virus thread
zephonic #3036740 04/04/20 07:39 PM
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Re: Corona Virus thread
zephonic #3036749 04/04/20 08:00 PM
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Originally Posted by zephonic
Originally Posted by zephonic
However, I believe in intellectual honesty and am aware of my own biases and prejudices. I'm a layman unaccustomed to medical jargon, so chances are that Dr. Krumholz understands the study better than I do. I have emailed him with my questions. If he replies, I'll report back.

So he replied this morning:

Hi. Thanks for your note. This is the link that should have been used…

https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200642




I find it odd that the NYT article linked to the wrong study (and it hasn’t been corrected as of now), but whatever.

I’m actually gonna read this, as a quick glance didn’t reveal anything about a 30% false negative rate, but as promised I will refrain from posting about it in this thread.

Zephonic, I'm so glad you emailed him and that he responded with the corrected link, because when I read the article originally linked I couldn't make heads or tails of it. I knew I was not an expert, but I didn't think I was a complete idiot.

As for the article in the correct link, I didn't read the whole thing. It goes pretty deep in the weeds. But the "general results" section describes that they examined a group of patients who had been tested with whatever swab assay was being used in China at the time, and who subsequently were subjected to a CT scan. The CT scan is considered a reliable test, because you can see what's happening in the lungs. As such it was considered a good metric for gauging accuracy of the swab assay.

1014 patients in the study. 413 had tested negative using the swab assay. Of those 413, 75% were judged to be positive based on CT scan. Not gonna break out my calculator, but just eyeballing those numbers that's about a 30% false negative rate.

Whether it's 30% or 10%, I feel better knowing that my family's negative tests don't necessarily mean we don't have the virus. Because otherwise, we don't know what we have, and from our perspective that's worse.


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Re: Corona Virus thread
Adan #3036754 04/04/20 09:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Adan
1014 patients in the study. 413 had tested negative using the swab assay. Of those 413, 75% were judged to be positive based on CT scan. Not gonna break out my calculator, but just eyeballing those numbers that's about a 30% false negative rate.

I don't know how you got there, to me that looks like a false negative rate of 75%

I have only skimmed over this second study, will try to read it in full some time this weekend. But maybe we should continue this via PM? I wish to stay out of this thread now.

Re: Corona Virus thread
zephonic #3036776 04/04/20 11:26 PM
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Originally Posted by zephonic
Originally Posted by Adan
1014 patients in the study. 413 had tested negative using the swab assay. Of those 413, 75% were judged to be positive based on CT scan. Not gonna break out my calculator, but just eyeballing those numbers that's about a 30% false negative rate.

I don't know how you got there, to me that looks like a false negative rate of 75%

I have only skimmed over this second study, will try to read it in full some time this weekend. But maybe we should continue this via PM? I wish to stay out of this thread now.

"Of those 413, 75% were judged to be positive" - which is roughly 300 false negatives. 300 false negatives out of 1014 is roughly 30%.

Re: Corona Virus thread
gg22 #3036782 04/05/20 12:03 AM
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Originally Posted by gg22
"Of those 413, 75% were judged to be positive" - which is roughly 300 false negatives. 300 false negatives out of 1014 is roughly 30%.
I was going to post the same thing but held off. 413 tested negative. Of those, 75% (310) were later found to be positive, so of total 1014 patients tested, 310 tested negative and later found to be positive. That’s 31% of all patients tested.

Re: Corona Virus thread
zephonic #3036791 04/05/20 01:38 AM
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Google Covid-19 Tracker

Setting it for US - Louisiana is pretty ripe with it right now and Florida is on the rise. Texas, Arkansas, and Mississippi are going to see their curves spike pretty soon.


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Re: Corona Virus thread
El Lobo #3036794 04/05/20 02:17 AM
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Originally Posted by El Lobo
Originally Posted by gg22
"Of those 413, 75% were judged to be positive" - which is roughly 300 false negatives. 300 false negatives out of 1014 is roughly 30%.
I was going to post the same thing but held off. 413 tested negative. Of those, 75% (310) were later found to be positive, so of total 1014 patients tested, 310 tested negative and later found to be positive. That’s 31% of all patients tested.
Might be worth taking the following into account when considering the relevance of this research today.
Study test dates "From January 6 to February 6, 2020," in Wuhan China.

There are now many documented cases in the past seven days of test kits sourced from China that have been found to be faulty when tested. 50 % or higher error rate. Health Departments in Spain, Italy and Australia amongst those who have refused to accept delivery. These test kits could have been included in the sample used for this study.

Test kits are now being manufactured in a number of places other than China, for example Germany. Plus there is more to the test kit story in some countries. Now there are many research institutions developing their own tests in the US and elsewhere. Another complication is that globally test kits are made to conform to the WHO standard. In the US tests up until recently have had to conform to the CDC standard. So a study on the number of false negatives in China in January 2020 has no relevance to the US experience.

Published by Popular Mechanics, link HERE
"In Washington, where the CDC's faulty tests stymied the progress of testing, potentially aiding the community spread seen there, the University of Washington Medical Center has developed a COVID-19 test based on WHO recommendations, unlike the CDC"

Note the reference to "faulty" above refers to false positives.


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Re: Corona Virus thread
zephonic #3036806 04/05/20 05:45 AM
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I find this video very down to earth and informative. It covers the test many are buying and it's unreliable results. It also talks how people (including me) who got that really bad flu around the end of last year think they got an early version of the virus and have some immunity, which leads in to the talk about virus timeline.

I liked Jessa's talk, but of course your MMV.



Re: Corona Virus thread
zephonic #3036812 04/05/20 09:16 AM
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One local grocery store in my area is only allowing people to enter from one place. There was a long line waiting to enter. I understand the need, of course, but it doesn't seem too much thought was put into plan. Another store has created one-way aisles. This seems like a better way, since I can create my own social distancing.

Another observation while I was driving in a scenic area were people walking on sidewalk. They were keeping their distance but I wouldn't want to be at the back of such a line even if it's outside. if you're wondering, there is not a mandatory order to stay home so the walkers were not breaking any laws.


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Re: Corona Virus thread
zephonic #3036899 04/05/20 08:10 PM
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Very interesting video. One thing bothers me though and it's when she said "If all these people had COVID 19 last winter, we know some would have been hospitalized and some would have died. Where's the bodies?" Exactly the question I posed about California 2-3 weeks ago. I just checked to find out where did the most Chinese visitors land in the US. Here's the answer:

China recorded an all-time high 1.2 million visitors, making Los Angeles the number one ranked U.S. city for Chinese travelers (6.9 percent increase, the largest net gain among all international markets).

This is exactly what that last article I posted said. If this is so contagious and LAX is incredibly crowded in the international arrivals area, where were the bodies? I go to Mexico one to two times a year and I have been stuck in arrivals occasionally for TWO HOURS because a 747 or A380 dumped 400-500 passengers in front of me just before I got to Customs. If there was any virus running around there January-March which is peak travel to Mexican resorts, LA should have been swamped with cases. People say, well we didn't know because nobody got tested. Fine, but my point then and still is now and it's exactly what she just said, were were the bodies? People that sick would have gone to the ER's, been admitted and some would have died. To simply prorate the Chinese visitor numbers equally 1.2 million is 100,000 a month so many thousands of Chinese visitors just through LAX alone in January before Chinese travel was shut down. If you go back to November then it's about 300,000 Chinese visitors. LA should have predated New York, not be following it. My comments about the "California Mystery" still stands.

Bob


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Re: Corona Virus thread
Jazzmammal #3036914 04/05/20 09:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
To simply prorate the Chinese visitor numbers equally 1.2 million is 100,000 a month so many thousands of Chinese visitors just through LAX alone in January before Chinese travel was shut down. If you go back to November then it's about 300,000 Chinese visitors. LA should have predated New York, not be following it. My comments about the "California Mystery" still stands. Bob
Very interesting indeed.

Re: Corona Virus thread
zephonic #3036918 04/05/20 10:19 PM
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When someone dies with flu-like symptoms, I expect it's pretty easy to chalk it up to the seasonal flu that already kills thousands in the US every year. It's only when the counts start to get conspicuously large that you do the science required to identify the specific virus and start working on tests that can detect it. That's the danger with an exponential ramp - it starts out under the radar and while everyone is arguing about whether doing anything meaningful is overreacting, it grows to the point where it's extraordinarily difficult to contain. This particular nasty is especially problematic because so many are asymptomatic, and even those who develop severe symptoms are contagious for quite some time before they start to feel ill.

The problem of hundreds of thousands of Americans who have it now is nothing compared to the millions who will have it soon. New York was likely to be especially susceptible due to the heavy reliance on mass transit rather than the car culture that pervades LA.

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Re: Corona Virus thread
Lady Gaia #3036925 04/05/20 10:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Lady Gaia
When someone dies with flu-like symptoms, I expect it's pretty easy to chalk it up to the seasonal flu that already kills thousands in the US every year. It's only when the counts start to get conspicuously large that you do the science required to identify the specific virus and start working on tests that can detect it. That's the danger with an exponential ramp - it starts out under the radar and while everyone is arguing about whether doing anything meaningful is overreacting, it grows to the point where it's extraordinarily difficult to contain. This particular nasty is especially problematic because so many are asymptomatic, and even those who develop severe symptoms are contagious for quite some time before they start to feel ill.

The problem of hundreds of thousands of Americans who have it now is nothing compared to the millions who will have it soon. New York was likely to be especially susceptible due to the heavy reliance on mass transit rather than the car culture that pervades LA.

I think this has nailed it. Initially, those COVID cases that died may have 'slipped through' as a proportion would have also had the flu. So when acute respiratory distress (ARDS) set in and ICU was needed, testing for flu would have shown up positives. You can only find what you test for, so it's only cases where a person DIDN'T have flu and DID have ARDS that some deeper worker would have been done. Even then, unless the same ICU is seeing handfuls of people with the same thing (no flu but ARDS etc) it wouldn't register as a potential new issue.

Here's a recent article that covers the challenge in determining numbers of deaths etc

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Re: Corona Virus thread
Jazzmammal #3036944 04/06/20 01:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
My comments about the "California Mystery" still stands.

Bob

Well, that's fine, but to what end? It's an interesting parlor game while we all are stuck in parlors. The CA Herd Immunity article was just making the point that there's a lot we don't know about how the virus has played out so far in California. The author wasn't suggesting (nor are you, Bob) that anyone should assume they are immune and start hugging strangers, etc. The video by the PhD lady several posts above was trying to warn people not to assume they're immune, because apparently some people are leaping to that assumption.

It feels to me like the world may be more vulnerable to a pandemic than it was 20 years ago, because now with everyone on the internet it's so easy for crazy conspiracy theories to take hold. When there finally is a vaccine, the anti-vaxxers will be out in force trying to convince people not to use it. At the rate things are going, we will again be burning witches at the stake within my lifetime.

As depressing as the virus and the associated economic damage, is, I find myself more depressed by the lack of rationality, the lack of ethical behavior, and the outright criminality (which is a different topic entirely, I know) that are occasioned by it.


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Re: Corona Virus thread
Adan #3036964 04/06/20 03:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Adan
It feels to me like the world may be more vulnerable to a pandemic than it was 20 years ago, because now with everyone on the internet it's so easy for crazy conspiracy theories to take hold. When there finally is a vaccine, the anti-vaxxers will be out in force trying to convince people not to use it. At the rate things are going, we will again be burning witches at the stake within my lifetime..


Tech today will work for us and against us in this epidemic. Advances in medicine, AI, and databases of past flu and virus pattern will help to find a vaccine. Where it is working against is we are so mobile, people flying globally daily people infected and don't know it are getting on jets and carrying the germ to other cities. Look at the hard hit places and they are high population and business/technology centers that have a do global business. To a lessor degree relatives flying globally to visit family. In my opinion stopping people from moving around both locally and global will be big part of the solution.

Re: Corona Virus thread
zephonic #3036974 04/06/20 04:40 AM
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My little valley in Idaho has the highest infection rate in the USA. I self-isolated in early march. I've been following the science from late feb from a variety of sources. The only non-scientific sources I use are NYT, Washpost, UK guardian and a few BBC shows.

All of my sources have mixed and conflicting information at times.

A few things which may be useful to know.

Unlike the flu, this is a very stable virus. Hence it is a good target for a real vacine. I think that might come as soon as the fall, since so many are throwing money at it. Anyone not already infected should avoid contracting it until there is vacine. No matter your age.

We will see personal anti-body tests pretty soon. Already a famous UK presenter adminstered one to himself on air, and to his surprise, he came up "positive", meaning he had had the virus. He was a bit skeptical as he remembered no symtpoms. This is an instant test basically. Anti-bodies give you immunity in the short term. They don't last forever. Nobody knows how long but likely 18 months at most.

But short term a pos anti-body test would make it safe to work and also interact with uninfected, so long as precautions for surface contamination were taken. You can't shed the virus after 30 days. Usually a bit less.

Of pets, Cats are most vulnerable, certainly can get it from us and can give it to each other. Most likely they can also pass the virus to humans, though it has not been documented.

It appears dose matters, though this is still debated, and some studies suggest it does not.

Home spreading is a serious issue, and families are not great at stopping it. Even if multiple members are infected all the steps, like masks and seperation within the home need to be followed or serious risks ensue.

Plastics can hold viable C19 3 days. That's about the longest.

150 F for 30 mins will disinfect about anything. Be careful. In general heat degrades viablity.

If infected, avoid Nsaids unless you are already taking them. Not double blind proven, but likely hot baths, followed by a short cold exposure heightens immune performance and might keep you from the hospital. Fever below 104 if you are healthy is your friend. Tylenol is least bad of Nsaids.

Talking is basically just like coughing slowly. That's why masks really work.

Avoid any closed space like a store. I have not been in one for 4 weeks. If you hunt around you can get everything delivered or given to you out of doors.

Be sure everyone in house closes toilet lid before flushing.

While this virus is unlikely to kill the healthy, it can cause permanent damage. You do not want it ever. Do all you can for yourself and others to avoid getting it. Don't become apathetic or fatalistic. Such attitudes may hurt others tangibly. The only thing more contageous is measles......possibly small pox.

More info about testing. PCR tests require finitie reagents. There will never be enough. False negatives are common for a variety of reasons.

A good ER staff can recognise even postives without symptoms, using a few common tests and an X-Ray. I know this from local experience. In China they prefered Catscanners, but the method was basically the same. There were never mass PCR tests in China--check me on that.

What we are not doing: untill penicilin, the foundation of epidemic control was simple: seperate the sick from the healthy. The chinese did this in the end, and it worked. I'm not sure why the west ignores this basic technique. Too much trouble they think. It is alot more trouble to attempt to keep a family well if one person has this virus. We have all means to do this properly. But I think the ER dramas are distracting us. Seperation is the most effective way to achieve a reduced health care load.

So the Chinese method was: Non-PCR ID and seperation. Generally anyway. It has proven quite effective. Not 100%. There is a perception you will have more care and love with your family. Not if they are terrified and highly stressed.

I don't have time now to give all the references to above info. I believe it to be accurate as of 4/3/20. It may be best to just practice these fundamentals, good hygiene and limit C19 news. Instead stream best shows and play music.

Sleep as much as as possible. Very good for immune system. Catch up with old friends and family by phone, while cooking, cleaning or just pacing around. Way more healthy than facebook or forums.

I wish everyone the best.

One last thing. In china today most have an app on their phone: if they see a "wet-market" they press one button. Police arrive shortly and close it. The chinese published the genome free as soon as they could. Leading chinese scientists sent PPE to Italy using their own funds. Resist impluse to demonise the chinese. Review your own behavior and respect nature.

Last edited by uhoh7; 04/06/20 05:25 AM.

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Re: Corona Virus thread
zephonic #3036993 04/06/20 09:33 AM
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Wow, that's really informative and helpful. Thanks for posting. That all makes sense, based on what is coming out in the more trustworthy news sources the past few days.


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Re: Corona Virus thread
zephonic #3036994 04/06/20 09:56 AM
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Uhoh7

Very wise words, I hope all members here take the trouble to read all your post.

Your comment on Cats is very appropriate since a Tiger at Bronx Zoo has Coronavirus, and the think it has been given to her by a keeper who has not been displaying any symptoms.

My Mrs has just completed a three week online course by the WHO/London for Infectious Diseases and good hygiene and self isolation is the key.

A 20 second hand wash of hands with old fashioned soap and water regularly will help considerably


Col
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Re: Corona Virus thread
uhoh7 #3037028 04/06/20 02:56 PM
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Originally Posted by uhoh7
The only non-scientific sources I use are NYT, Washpost, UK guardian .

All of my sources have mixed and conflicting information at times..

These "sources" will have mixed and conflicting information long after the pandemic is over, as they are not sources.


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Re: Corona Virus thread
zephonic #3037070 04/06/20 04:13 PM
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uhoh7, I got some new good suggestions from your helpful post. Thank you.

Re: Corona Virus thread
zephonic #3037091 04/06/20 04:49 PM
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Here's a great suggestion I just read. Run a gallon of dish washing soap and a gallon of bleach in your washing machine for 10 minutes.

It will disinfect your whole house.

Bob


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