Music Player Network
Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Page 35 of 36 1 2 33 34 35 36
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3065192 10/07/20 12:53 AM
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 7,503
Likes: 31
G
MP Hall of Fame Member
Offline
MP Hall of Fame Member
G
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 7,503
Likes: 31
Originally Posted by Anderton
Not to put too fine a point on it, but a lot of old people dying does take pressure off of social security and medicare. At this point, having old people die would be helpful to the economy. They're probably not full-time employed, so the only taxes they're paying are off of their social security. (t.

you lost me completely on that post.

Sound, Studio, and Stage Island
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3065201 10/07/20 02:13 AM
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 238
Likes: 11
N
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
N
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 238
Likes: 11
I don't know how to assess the economics of "a lot of old people dying". Yes, this is a cold conversation, to be sure. At least I'm old enough that "old" don't mean "them" at this point.

The old folks in the retirement/nursing homes for the well-to-do pay at least $6K and up a month. Lots of jobs are tied up in eldercare, and I mean lots. The medical costs are over the rainbow and gaining speed. Money coming out of 401k plans, IRAs, annuities, SEPs, deferred comp, even some remaining defined benefit plans, all sorts of funds run through the taxman's trimmers the second they leave the tax-sheltered fund nest.

The active oldsters do a lot, especially in terms of caring for grandkids. A lot of older kids have moved back home after losing the waiter/waitress/musician/Uber-driver/dorm student, etc. gigs. The teacher population is chock-full of over-50 workers, and over 70 is not that unusual. There are lots of ways to pull your weight that don't all mean producing dollars for consuming products.

But, yes, if poor old Grandad is just vegging away at home, pulling Social Security and putting the hurt on the Medicare system with an ever-increasing set of ills and accumulating health crises, then the poor soul is probably "bad for the GNP". Well, we love Grandad so great sucks to you GNP.

nat

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
GregC #3065205 10/07/20 03:03 AM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 9,407
Likes: 157
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Offline
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 9,407
Likes: 157
Originally Posted by GregC
Originally Posted by Anderton
Not to put too fine a point on it, but a lot of old people dying does take pressure off of social security and medicare. At this point, having old people die would be helpful to the economy. They're probably not full-time employed, so the only taxes they're paying are off of their social security.

you lost me completely on that post.

Well given my age, I get social security and have medicare. Both programs are in financial trouble. If I die, then there will be one less person drawing from those programs...of course I'll die anyway at some point, but the sooner I go, the less money gets withdrawn from social security and the less I need medicare benefits. The more people who aren't drawing social security and relying on medicare, the less pressure that puts on the system.

I'm not putting a value judgement on this, just doing the math. It's of at least technical interest to those who are concerned about the effect an insolvent social security or medicare system could have on upcoming generations.

Nowarezman makes a good point that "The old folks in the retirement/nursing homes for the well-to-do pay at least $6K and up a month. Lots of jobs are tied up in eldercare, and I mean lots." However, at this point, the baby boomer generation remains a major population bump. We'll have a supply of old people entering nursing homes and such for quite some time. None of the businesses handling these people will need to pack up and go home.

I'm just trying to look at this from all the angles. There's an understandable desire to be able to see clear results and be able to anticipate trends, but there are way too many variables to make for simple, neat answers. For example, it was assumed way before COVID that there would be another pandemic. There were contingency plans and simulations about how many could die and under what circumstances, what measures would need to be taken, etc. However, I seriously doubt that anyone tasked with contingency plans said "Hey, do you realize this is going to pretty much kill any kind of live performance to an audience?" Similarly, I don't think anyone thought "Better buy stock in Amazon before it goes through the roof."

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3065246 10/07/20 03:38 PM
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 238
Likes: 11
N
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
N
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 238
Likes: 11
Originally Posted by Anderton
Well given my age, I get social security and have medicare. Both programs are in financial trouble. If I die, then there will be one less person drawing from those programs...of course I'll die anyway at some point, but the sooner I go, the less money gets withdrawn from social security and the less I need medicare benefits. The more people who aren't drawing social security and relying on medicare, the less pressure that puts on the system.

Ah, but the whole shebang is an artificial system. If Thanos atomized half the over-65 population, then the government would just cut the funding to Social Security and Medicare to match, and both programs would be in financial trouble again.

We, as a society, fund Social Security and Medicare to the extent we choose to fund them. Yes, there are finite financial resources. It's a matter of choices and values. And competition between powerful and interested groups for the money.

Now I'm speaking a bit out of my fields of expertise here - but it seems to me that Economics, taken as a whole, seems to treat economic matters as if they were part of some vast system that operates on rules beyond human choices - like the weather, or vulcanism. It may be that economists do not fall prey to this tendency, but the press and public do. That happens a lot - after the press and the public absorb their dumbed-down versions of complex social and scientific matters, what constitutes the truths of "Science" and "Social Science" and "Medicine" varies terrifically between the public and the professional versions. Can't these things be taught better so the press and public won't run off and misuse these things all the time??

nat

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066112 10/14/20 10:26 PM
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
Head of WHO warns against pursuing herd immunity

ASSOCIATED PRESS

LONDON – The head of the World Health Organization warned against the idea that herd immunity might be a realistic strategy to stop the pandemic, dismissing such proposals as “simply unethical.”

At a media briefing Monday, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said health officials typically aim to achieve herd immunity by vaccination. Tedros noted that to obtain herd immunity from a highly infectious disease such as measles, for example, about 95% of the population must be immunized.

“Herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from a virus, not by exposing them to it,” he said. Some researchers have argued that allowing COVID-19 to spread in populations that are not obviously vulnerable will help build up herd immunity and is a more realistic way to stop the pandemic, instead of the restrictive lockdowns that have proved economically devastating.

“Never in the history of public health has herd immunity been used as a strategy for responding to an outbreak,” Tedros said. Tedros said that too little was known about immunity to COVID-19 to know if herd immunity is even achievable.

“We have some clues, but we don’t have the complete picture,” he said, noting that WHO had documented instances of people becoming reinfected with coronavirus after recovering from an initial bout of the virus. Tedros said that although most people appear to develop some kind of immune response, it’s unknown how long that lasts or how robust that protection is – and that different people have varying responses.

------

(From my local newspaper, a USA Today franchise)

Insights and incites by Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066114 10/14/20 11:26 PM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 9,407
Likes: 157
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Offline
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 9,407
Likes: 157
Re "herd immunity"...Sweden apparently tried a lite version of that. It seemed promising at first, but less so as time went on.

The scary thing to me is what's happening in Europe. The predictions that the advent of colder weather would up the number of infections seems to be spot-on.

The good news, such as it is, is that despite the increase in cases, deaths have levelled off (at least for now). This could indicate the medical community is getting a better handle on how to treat the virus. I still wouldn't want to get sick, but not dying is a step in the right direction.

FWIW there are companies that will pay you $1,250 right now to be a vaccine test subject. The money is tempting, but the odds aren't.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066220 10/16/20 12:27 AM
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
Herd immunity seems especially foolish given that we don't know if that is even possible with COVID-19. After all we never got herd immunity with another coronavirus, the common cold, and never got herd immunity with other diseases like the flu, rabies, malaria, AIDs, etc., etc.

Trying to achieve herd immunity with a disease we may not ever become immune to could end up being slaughter.

For those 'up north' you might consider vitamin D supplementation (check with your doctor, it is possible to take too much D). There is some statistical evidence that suggests the cold dry air plus the lack of sunshine both contribute to the winter illness season. I'm not a doctor, and this kind of evidence proves nothing, but it might be worth it.

It looks like I'll be gigging in November at a place where we have played for 12 consecutive tourist seasons (and two owners). It's outdoors,and on an island, so it should be fairly safe. I do have mixed feelings about it, since we can't play or sing with masks on, but being outdoors, on a deck over a salt water lagoon with a state park on the other side of the lagoon should keep the odds down to a minimum.

The rest of our season is shot, we lost all our gigs, so at least we have something besides Band-in-a-Box to bring in some bucks.

Now if I can only remember how to set up the gear grin

Insights and incites by Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066262 10/16/20 01:54 PM
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
Well as quickly as it came, it's gone. The Canadian border remains closed, our gig is cancelled before it started. frown


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066298 10/16/20 04:53 PM
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 238
Likes: 11
N
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
N
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 238
Likes: 11
Yes, it's interesting how the term "herd immunity" seems to promise the maximum results with the minimum effort. Fatalism and Laziness and Optimism all buds drinking together.

From the perspective of a virus, "immunity" is just a stop sign, however it is manifested. The result of herd immunity is there is insufficient breeding ground for the quadzillion virus motes to estabish a new homestead and reproduce. To the virus, a mask blocks a transmission pathway and antibodies block a transmission pathway. Either way, it's all the same to the virus, there's a limitation of opportunities to thrive and spread.

So if you are protected via the hated masks and distancing, etc, etc., you are doing just as much damage to the virus army as would be if you had developed antibodies through exposure. The virus would die away in a room full of people with effective PPE just the same as it would die away in a room full of people with sufficient antibodies.

It's just that getting enough people to have sufficient antibodies means a whole lotta people dying on the "herd immunity" road. Unless of course a vaccine comes along to give you the antibodies without the death part.

nat

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066371 10/17/20 12:12 AM
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
The most important thing to consider is that there is no guarantee that we would ever get herd immunity. If not it's just herd slaughter.

Not every disease gives us herd immunity. The flu and colds are two examples -- and the cold is another Corona-Virus just like COVID.
Just about everybody on the planet has caught a CORONA-VIRUS COMMON COLD, and as far as I know, nobody has developed an immunity, much less herd immunity.

To to go for herd immunity at this point in time is too dangerous to consider, which is why the WHO, CDC and all other infectious disease experts tell us not to do it. Of course there are non-scientists among us who tell us we can develop immunity, but they have no track record of telling us the truth and they don't know the science either.

So far 20 documented cases of re-infection have been verified, and how many do we not know about? And in some cases, the second infection was worse than the first.

So there is a good chance that IF we choose herd immunity, and IF herd immunity doesn't develop (like the corona-common-cold), mega-millions will die. There will probably be no family untouched by the death.

Insights and incites by Notes

Last edited by Notes_Norton; 10/17/20 12:15 AM.

Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3066419 10/17/20 05:34 PM
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 89
Likes: 6
P
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
P
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 89
Likes: 6
Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
Not every disease gives us herd immunity. The flu and colds are two examples -- and the cold is another Corona-Virus just like COVID.[/b] [/size] Just about everybody on the planet has caught a CORONA-VIRUS COMMON COLD, and as far as I know, nobody has developed an immunity, much less herd immunity.
I thought the reason no one had immunity to the common cold and the flu was that there are hundred + of different strains. That's why they guess which flu virus is coming next flu season and then try to create a vaccine for it. The common cold is not deadly so there's no reason to waste resources trying to develop immunity to a hundred different cold viruses.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066431 10/17/20 09:23 PM
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
There are hundreds of different strains because the virus mutates again and again --- and we're already seeing COVID-19 mutate.

It's a survival function evolution has provided for the virus. When it mutates often enough, sooner or later one of those mutants will overcome the defenses the host has developed.

You can't catch the same Corona Virus cold twice, but by the next year, the cold you beat last year has mutated to become this year's cold. Just slightly different enough to go undetected by what your body recognized last year.

We don't know if COVID-19 will act this way or not, many corona virus strains do. But until we do, it's foolish to try herd immunity because it could be herd slaughter.

Insights and incites by Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066437 10/18/20 12:05 AM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 9,407
Likes: 157
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Offline
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 9,407
Likes: 157
This whole thing is the definition of on-the-job training.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066456 10/18/20 01:30 PM
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
Except today marks the first day of the 7th month without a job (gig). So I guess for me it's off-the-job-training grin

I guess it's better to be unemployed than under the sod.

Since we always lived below our means and have zero debt, we can wait this thing out. But like so many of us, we're ready for some solution to the plague problem.

Insights and incites by Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066500 10/19/20 12:23 AM
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 11,611
Likes: 131
10k Club
Offline
10k Club
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 11,611
Likes: 131
Played my first gig since February, had a maximum of 50 people allowed to attend but still felt over-crowded and I felt ill at ease although my chances of picking up COVID here is much less than some countries but it's still a risk. They checked temperatures etc but not one person wore a mask and there was too much hugging and handshaking for my liking.


Enjoyed the hell out of the gig but would happily now not play until we're in much safer territory...


The Keyboard Chronicles Podcast and Weekly email briefing
My music
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
nursers #3066515 10/19/20 01:50 AM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 9,407
Likes: 157
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Offline
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 9,407
Likes: 157
Originally Posted by nursers
They checked temperatures etc but not one person wore a mask and there was too much hugging and handshaking for my liking.

It really seems like those are pretty basic and painless precautions. If someone thinks that wearing a mask impinges on their freedom, they should try a hospital stay sometime...

Those who say "well at the beginning, Fauci said not to use a mask" don't remember that he said to do that because there weren't enough to go around, and he thought they should be going to front-line workers. The exact quote was "“Right now in the United States people should not be walking around with masks … You should think of healthcare providers who are needing them and the people who are ill.” Now there are plenty of masks to around, and the consensus does seem to be that it helps slow the spread.

I feel (perhaps naively so) that if I wear a mask, avoid groups of people, practice social distancing, and reduce my excursions into the outside world to a minimum, I can do things like go to the hardware store to buy the parts needed for a home repair. I doubt I'd go to a club, though.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066546 10/19/20 04:55 AM
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 11,611
Likes: 131
10k Club
Offline
10k Club
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 11,611
Likes: 131
Originally Posted by Anderton
It really seems like those are pretty basic and painless precautions. If someone thinks that wearing a mask impinges on their freedom, they should try a hospital stay sometime...

Could not agree more - I sort of hope our state government will mandate mask wearing but I'm not holding my breath. Here, you'd probably get 70-80% compliance with mask wearing if enforced, which would be a massive improvement.


The Keyboard Chronicles Podcast and Weekly email briefing
My music
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
nursers #3066554 10/19/20 11:05 AM
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 21,691
Likes: 116
Triple Secret Banninated
20k Club
Offline
Triple Secret Banninated
20k Club
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 21,691
Likes: 116
Originally Posted by Anderton
Those who say "well at the beginning, Fauci said not to use a mask" don't remember that he said to do that because there weren't enough to go around, and he thought they should be going to front-line workers. The exact quote was "“Right now in the United States people should not be walking around with masks … You should think of healthcare providers who are needing them and the people who are ill.” Now there are plenty of masks to around, and the consensus does seem to be that it helps slow the spread.

I feel (perhaps naively so) that if I wear a mask, avoid groups of people, practice social distancing, and reduce my excursions into the outside world to a minimum, I can do things like go to the hardware store to buy the parts needed for a home repair. I doubt I'd go to a club, though.

To your first paragraph, science learns and evolves. It seems like nowadays if science puts something out there and it's wrong, people want to say scientists are never right and/or they can't be trusted. It probably comes from local news broadcasts reporting on preliminary science studies that are later disputed, and no one telling the average person that this is how the process works, peer review and all that. I'm sure if Fauci could go back and say people should wear masks, just don't hog the N95 ones, use homemade ones, close ones, etc., he would.

Second paragraph, you are playing the averages and risks. The more you do, the more risk. So if you want to do X, then you need to cut out Y. I guess it's like watching what you eat. You can splurge on that treat, but then you'll need to cut your calories elsewhere. I've seen several articles talk about and recommend this approach to risk management for this pandemic.

Originally Posted by nursers
Played my first gig since February, had a maximum of 50 people allowed to attend but still felt over-crowded and I felt ill at ease although my chances of picking up COVID here is much less than some countries but it's still a risk. They checked temperatures etc but not one person wore a mask and there was too much hugging and handshaking for my liking.


Enjoyed the hell out of the gig but would happily now not play until we're in much safer territory...
I was hoping for a better report from your gig, David. Sorry about that.


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066562 10/19/20 01:28 PM
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 11,611
Likes: 131
10k Club
Offline
10k Club
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 11,611
Likes: 131
Thanks mate - I did have a good time but the risk was always in the back of my mind. At least I'm never at risk of groupies grin


The Keyboard Chronicles Podcast and Weekly email briefing
My music
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066564 10/19/20 01:54 PM
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
In hindsight, I'm actually feeling lucky my November weekly gig got canceled. We set up right in front of the entrance to the deck. Too many people don't wear masks and I suppose one sneeze could be dangerous.

It's important to keep up with the latest scientific advice.

Scientists publish peer-reviewed papers so other scientists check the theories, negate, confirm, or improve on them, and as time goes on we learn more and more. There are a lot of dead-ends on the way and a lot of improvements.

You can choose to believe pundits, propagandists, and politicians if you like, but if you want to be safe, it's better to choose to believe what the experts know and what they are learning and what they may know tomorrow.

If great white sharks have been spotted at the beach, and the life guard station says the sharks are off shore, you can choose to express your individual freedom and go swimming anyway, but I think it's a foolish idea.

With masks and hand washing it adds a second layer that IMHO limits your personal freedom -- social responsibility.

You don't have the freedom to drive drunk or do other things that endanger the safety of your fellow citizens. Your rights and freedom ends where their rights and freedoms begin.

By not wearing the mask and practicing social distancing, you not only a danger to yourself, you are endangering others. If you are unknowingly and asymptomatic carrier you may be killing someone you pass and making others extremely sick. Do you have a right to do that? Does someone else have a right to engage in some reckless behavior that might kill you or your loved ones?

Don't listen to the pundits, propagandists, politicians, and people with an agenda, listen to the experts in disease control. It's your best bet to keep yourself and others safe and put an end to this plague so we and the economy can recover from the wounds.

Insights and incites by Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3066655 10/20/20 04:26 AM
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,221
Likes: 12
J
MP Hall of Fame Member
Offline
MP Hall of Fame Member
J
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,221
Likes: 12
Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
...listen to the experts in disease control. It's your best bet to keep yourself and others safe and put an end to this plague so we and the economy can recover from the wounds.

I asked this question a week ago and got no reply. What is your metric for measuring when is the "end to this plague?" You listen to the experts as do I so what are they saying about that? What they're saying is this virus will be with us basically forever but for the near future it's another one to two years of what's happening now. A vaccine won't be available until early next year. Probably. It will take a minimum of a year to roll it out to everybody but as we all know everybody is not willing to take it. Maybe only half. At what point will you feel safe and what stats will you base that decision on?

This thing with all the news reports (which are mostly bad because they emphasize the unfortunate really bad cases) has made me paranoid despite my efforts not to fall for that. I find myself pulling my mask up to make sure it's as tight as it can be forgetting I'm not protecting me at all, it's in case I'm a carrier. I'm doing all the things people are describing here concerning a gig. I just did one ten days ago here in the community. A friend has a house on our small lake with an empty lot adjacent to him. We did about a 3 1/2 hour gig on his large patio with maybe 25-30 people wandering around the lot. The neighbor on the other side of the lot opened her house up with some snacks and drinks. I had a good time, it felt good to play but when we took our one break it was somewhat uncomfortable and weird. I'm trying to social distance but it didn't work all the time but then we're outside so I didn't think it was a big deal which it wasn't since I'm fine. I went shopping last Saturday in Temecula and the whole area was just packed. Heavy, heavy traffic, I went to Trader Joe's and had to wait in line for about 10 minutes to get in then went to CVS which was fairly busy, then went to Lowe's which was very busy. Everybody wore their masks to varying degrees, and I have my sanitizer in the car which I used every time I got in.

Sometimes I don't know what to think. It's like the virus doesn't exist and/or nobody cares and yet there is no big outbreak in this area either. I know and agree masks help but since none of us have the real medical N95's the masks and simple cloth coverings everybody wears are really only better than nothing and that's about it. I was frankly very surprised at how the President and his 20 closest advisers all got it and were all fine in very short order. Even Chris Christie. When I read he had it I thought oh boy, here we go. This guy is morbidly obese with some serious underlying conditions. I thought for sure he would have a rough time. Nope. What is going on? Has the virus morphed a bit to where it's not as serious now or are the treatments really that much better or is it overall just not quite as bad as we all fear it is?

Craig has said this before and I agree with him. The answer is probably all of the above and none of the above. We just don't know but I have to admit I'm leaning towards it's not as bad as we think it is. I also think this upcoming winter will be a very important test.

Bob


Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066680 10/20/20 03:11 PM
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
Too many unknowns. One thing for sure, the legislators gets much better care and attention than the "average Joe". Same for ultra-rich people. They always have and always will.

Some otherwise healthy people have died.

There are still too many unknowns to put your finger on 'why'.

Getting the disease can be minimized, but it's still COVID Roulette. If you get the disease, how severe it is and if you will survive, survive damaged, or if you will survive at all is a crap shoot.

My sister-in-law about 50 years old, athletic, trim, and with no pre-existing conditions almost died. She was in isolation, fighting to breath, thinking "is this how it ends?" for days and finally pulled through. She has extensive organ damage and they suspect much of it will be permanent. Her son and his fiance got it as well but I haven't heard an update on how they fared (no news is good news I hope). Her husband didn't get it (go figure).

In the early to mid part of the 20th century people with Tuberculosis were removed from the public and quarantined in Sanitariums (Sanatoriums?), That's much more extreme than wearing masks. We've got it easy by comparison. We should take responsibility with our minimized guidelines and wear them. I know, I'm tired of it too.

I hope you came through your gig as healthy as you went into the gig Bob.

What is my metric?

Either when a proven vaccine is available (I'll take it) or when they have a quick, reliable, and effective treatment that doesn't leave formerly healthy people damaged or deceased.

If we do not open up the economy, as soon as the stimulus funds end, the economy is going to tank. Unemployment is high, most people are afraid to go back to pre-COVID life, Add to that, when the stimulus ends, millions of people will be homeless. That will make the Bush era "great recession" look like a walk in the park.

If we do open the economy, the economy is going to tank anyway, with a much higher death rate. Just take the example of when the president said, "No more stimulus talks" and the stock market immediately responded. As cases and deaths go up, people will be more afraid to go into the dangerous world, unemployment will remain high, millions will become homeless, and the results will be similar. And since we have a broken health system, many poor people will not get adequate care, or any care at all.

It's a lose-lose situation. The difference IMO is this: If we be patient and wait to see if the vaccine trials currently in phase 3 either afford us protection or not, we will have better information to make the decision as to whether to open the economy or not, and there is the potential that by waiting, millions of lives will be saved.

My self-preservation instincts are in high alert. I am doing what I can to come through this unscathed.

When the bear is at your door, it's not time go out, and if you have to go out, it's foolish to go out unarmed.

Insights and incites by Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3066712 10/20/20 06:29 PM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 9,407
Likes: 157
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Offline
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 9,407
Likes: 157
Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
I asked this question a week ago and got no reply. What is your metric for measuring when is the "end to this plague?"

I would consider it ended when the death rate is the same as the seasonal flu, but that's just me.

Quote
I find myself pulling my mask up to make sure it's as tight as it can be forgetting I'm not protecting me at all, it's in case I'm a carrier.

FWIW everything I've read (from sources like the Mayo Clinic and doctors) is that while it is primarily about protecting other people, it does provide a degree of protection to the wearer.

Quote
I was frankly very surprised at how the President and his 20 closest advisers all got it and were all fine in very short order. Even Chris Christie. When I read he had it I thought oh boy, here we go. This guy is morbidly obese with some serious underlying conditions. I thought for sure he would have a rough time.

Well, he was in the ICU for 7 days, which I don't think is a picnic. A problem I see with COVID-19 is that it's not digital - it's not like either you're fine afterward or you die. The Rose Garden event was outside; if the whole thing had been inside, the story might be different. Also we really haven't gotten many reports on how the infected people are doing, just that they got infected. They could be out playing tennis every day, or lying in bed fatigued with organ damage. We just don't know, and details will not be forthcoming. I do think if they were all doing great, they'd be paraded around as examples of "all is well."

Quote
Has the virus morphed a bit to where it's not as serious now or are the treatments really that much better or is it overall just not quite as bad as we all fear it is?

Craig has said this before and I agree with him. The answer is probably all of the above and none of the above. We just don't know but I have to admit I'm leaning towards it's not as bad as we think it is. I also think this upcoming winter will be a very important test.

It's true, we just don't know. The treatments are getting better, no doubt about it; they can make a life or death difference. However when you see that some places have run out of ICU beds and others have one or two left, it gives me pause.

As to the virus's strength, it may be that it has taken out the easy targets, during the hot time of the year. I agree that Winter is where we'll find out a lot more. For example, I'm sure that many of us have been exposed to the virus in minute quantities, so our immune system was able to fight it off. Perhaps it even acted in some way to strengthen us against more potent attacks. But if catching it is all about exposure, and being inside with people will likely make a difference.

Deaths after the last peak plateaued, but now there's a new peak and it's too early to tell whether that will bump deaths up, or whether it will stay on its sub-1,000 per day plateau.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066745 10/20/20 10:33 PM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 9,407
Likes: 157
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Offline
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 9,407
Likes: 157
Just talked to my medical connection. She says the virus is getting more contagious, but less potent. It's doing that because it's good at being a virus - it needs people to be alive, so it can't kill 'em all. It needs hosts.

That's the good news. The bad news is as more people get infected, even if they don't die, other problems crop up. For example, cases of pneumonia are on the upswing and those people are filling hospitals in addition to the "textbook" COVID-19 patients.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066750 10/20/20 11:20 PM
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,839
Likes: 26
Platinum Member
Offline
Platinum Member
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,839
Likes: 26
I once asked a cop on foot patrol "I know your job can be dangerous out of the blue and I'm sure no one likes the paperwork, but isn't the real grind of it just the knuckleheads?" He turned his head sideways, grinned and said "Brother, you got that right!"

It seems the most likely that as winter creeps in, the defiant anti-mask knuckleheads will crowd inside for warmth and infect quite a few additional people. The flu season will amplify it. The demand to socially gather against all reason will amplify it. Education will be as disrupted as a Seattle cafe. Santa will stay home this year. He's old, he won't risk it.

I'm also curious to see what it will be like at this time NEXT year, because by then the current loop will have come around in full. The winter bloom will have come & gone, new medicines will probably have appeared, the grim die-off numbers will far larger, the economic damage will be all too clear beyond our Now and the political landscape will have changed in one large way or another. Here's a tip: Avoid all zombie shows and do not watch "The Omega Man" with Charlton Heston.


"I’m thinking of writing a cookbook.
I’ve got the title.
'Dark Side of the Spoon!'"
~ Nick Mason, drummer for Pink Floyd

https://soundcloud.com/david-emm-1
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066766 10/21/20 02:09 AM
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,221
Likes: 12
J
MP Hall of Fame Member
Offline
MP Hall of Fame Member
J
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,221
Likes: 12
Yeah and watch out for I am Legend and World War Z too. Both very good movies though for that genre. The point about the virus mutating to protect itself was predicted by Dr. Osterholm last March. I know this was discussed earlier and I'm not looking to start another big thing but...don't you love those buts? haha. I still have reservations about the overall death count. One ER doc was joking a few months ago about a guy who came in with multiple gunshot wounds and died but he also had COVID so it's a COVID death. Hospitals do get larger Medicare reimbursements if it's listed as a COVID death as well. Does that mean the numbers are wildly inflated or just by a few? No idea.

Notes, please stop with the totally incorrect mantra about how poor people can't get health care. I've taken a few friends and relatives to an ER maybe 10 times over the last 20 years or so. Here in SoCal they have been 95% full of non English speaking illegals every single time. Free health care is one of the primary reasons they will crash the border and I can't blame them. One time in Puerto Vallarta 10 or so years ago I had an accident on the pool deck at the resort and broke a finger. The manager gave me 6000 pesos in crisp 500 peso notes and put me in a cab to the San Javier hospital where all the tourists go. They only take cash at the door. I have no idea what kind of care the locals get. An American ER cannot turn anyone away who needs care, you just may have to wait a while. If you're legal with ID and have no insurance they will put you in Medicaid right there in the ER if you qualify which many will.. A friend was given the Medicaid enrollment papers to sign while he was on a gurney waiting for surgery. If they can't put you on Medicaid you still get the same care anyway. They use triage so when I took my girlfriend there with a shattered ankle after slipping on some stairs she got help in about a half hour or so. Runny noses can wait but heart attacks will get right in. I agree it would be better if everyone had some kind of insurance but this idea that poor people are dying in the streets because they can't get health care is totally bogus. Call 911 and get taken to the ER, that's all there is to it.

Bob


Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3066775 10/21/20 04:09 AM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 9,407
Likes: 157
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Offline
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 9,407
Likes: 157
Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
Notes, please stop with the totally incorrect mantra about how poor people can't get health care.

I think the point isn't that poor people can't get health care, but those in high-level government positions are going to get creme de la creme treatment that "normal" people won't get. It has been estimated that Trump's care totaled $60,000 to $100,000 to $650,000, depending on what you read. And of course, he has government-subsidized health care. If it's $100,000, which is what the Times reported. that's too much money to spend on everyone with COVID-19 because it would end up being $300 billion dollars or so.

Let's put it this way: suppose I'm in South Dakota, there are no ICU beds available, and I get severe COVID-19 symptoms. As it so happens. Beyonce did a concert that night in South Dakota, and also gets severe COVID-19 symptoms. I would assume Beyonce is going to get an ICU bed before I do. Well, unless the attending doctor has a copy of "Electronic Projects for Musicians." smile

2 members like this: Bone Muskeleton, Notes_Norton
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066823 10/21/20 04:57 PM
Joined: Nov 2001
Posts: 1,318
Likes: 1
Platinum Member
Offline
Platinum Member
Joined: Nov 2001
Posts: 1,318
Likes: 1
So I see that we have slipped into the political side of this thing. Leftist or Conservative, you really may not know where your friends/family stand on this.

My daughter, scared to death, won't have anyone INCLUDING ME in her house. My brother-in-law comes over seldom but is in the middle on this AND I THINK IT IS WAY OVERBLOWN !

FOR CRYING OUT LOUD, it has been 7 months of this $h!+ !!!

People have always died from pestilence. This is nothing new. You must weigh gain VS. loss when you do ANYTHING. You could get hit by a car, or killed in a car accident. People HAVE DIED FROM FLU INDUCED PNEUMONIA in the past. This is nothing new. I have always washed my hands, but now the insanity is almost obsessive compulsive.

The fact that the UN via WHO is behind this, I fear that we all will be "chipped" and vaccinated against our will. Whether they created this in the lab or whether it occured naturally, it will still accomplish the same thing.....make us all act like dystopian slaves in obedience to our masters with their new found power.

As to the numbers of COVID deaths, I'll just tell you one quick story.

A few years ago, a friend of mine told me how his dad died. He died from a broken leg........no wait....there is more to the story !
He fell out of his bed, broke his leg. It was a serious break. He was HOSPITALIZED. WHILE IN THE HOSPITAL, HE CAUGHT PNEUMONIA AND DIED. SO WOULD YOU REALLY SAY THAT HE DIED FROM a BROKEN LEG?

The hospitals are full of pneumonia. Any time you get admitted, you run the risk of contracting pneumonia. So were all of their deaths a result of covid induced pneumonia, or HOSPITAL INDUCED PNEUMONIA ?

So let's top the panic because far more are dying from starvation as a result of meat factories shutting down and loss of income. Many others are dying from DEFERRED MEDICAL procedures, such as cancer tests and pacemaker implants.

Dan

Last edited by techristian; 10/21/20 05:01 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066830 10/21/20 05:27 PM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 9,407
Likes: 157
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Offline
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 9,407
Likes: 157
I would not dispute that this pandemic is being exploited for political reasons on both ends of the spectrum, and not just in the United States (e.g., Brazil).

Regardless, at least 1 million people have died worldwide, with 224,000 of those in the US. Of course there can never be an exact figure, because some deaths will be attributed to coronavirus where that wasn't the main cause, and there will be deaths due to coronavirus that won't be counted as such. However, the bottom line is clear:

* It's very, very contagious although why it kills some people and makes no difference to others is unknown
* Its long-term effects are unknown
* Whether it will mutate into a more lethal or less lethal strain is unknown
* Whether cold weather will cause an explosion in cases is unknown
* Whether Europe's surge is due to natural reasons or opening up in the summer is unknown

That's a lot of unknowns, and humans tend to have a fear of the unknown and don't like uncertainty. So of course, people are going to be on edge about this.

In general, it seems people who have not experienced it firsthand are more likely to dismiss it as not a big deal, whereas those who have gotten sick or have lost friends or relatives think it's a big deal. One of my neighbors, no underlying conditions and in his 50s, caught it. He didn't die, but he said he didn't know it was possible to so sick. This was three months ago, and he still hasn't recovered completely.

I think people have a hard time accepting there is no solution that produces a good short-term income. Eventually this will play out one way or another, but it will leave a trail of wreckage no matter what we do.

If I got sick right now and couldn't work for a month, a lot of people who depend on me would be screwed. So I'm trying to be as careful as possible, while still interacting with the world on some level.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3066896 10/21/20 10:49 PM
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 434
Likes: 18
Bob Jazzmammal. The South Florida hospitals are famous for minimal care for the poor, especially black and Hispanic. They give them enough care to get them out the door and back on the street because they are not profitable to treat. The for-profit hospital stockholders don't like it if the hospital isn't making more and more profit than they did in previous quarters.

I guarantee if a poor person without insurance or with poor insurance and a rich person go into an overcrowded hospital with COVID, the rich person will get better care. And if the poor uninsured try to come in any way but the emergency room, they will be turned away.

Also I would suspect the number of COVID deaths are actually under-reported, although there is no way to know for sure. After all, especially in the beginning, why give a corpse a much needed COVID test when there are living people who need the test?

When my father died of diabetes, the death certificate said "heart attack". When my sister-in-law died of cancer, the death certificate said "pneumonia". When my father-in-law died of Alzheimers, the death certificate said "natural causes".

And anyone who says this is like the flu has probably never known someone who spent days in isolation thinking they were going to die because they couldn't get enough breath.

And yes, people have died of plagues throughout human history. And yes, throughout human history humans have done what the could to isolate the sick, sanatoriums, leper colonies. in-house quarantine, and so forth.

Only now it becomes political to believe a pundit, priest, propagandist or politician who says it's nothing but a hoax and exercise your fundamental so called freedom to say "the rules of a civilized society should not apply to me personally". These same propagandists tell you "It's under control" while record cases are soaring off the charts, and yet the willing still believe the propagandists.

Yes we all have to use our own risk vs. gain and self-preservation instincts to guide us. Obviously we're doing something wrong here in the USA because with 4% of the world's population, we have 33% of the world's COVID-19 cases.

Perhaps it's time we start doing things right.

My brother-in-law's family were anti-mask people, until B-I-L's wife, son and his fiance got COVID and for a while they thought his wife was going to die, alone, in an isolation ward, in a hospital. --- B-I-L then said, "I've got a big red letter S on my chest - for stupid."

You have the right to be stupid, but I don't recommend it.

Insights and incites by Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Page 35 of 36 1 2 33 34 35 36

Moderated by  Anderton 

Link Copied to Clipboard
Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.4