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OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?


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The following data is Texas data - from the CDC

Texas COVID-19 Data

 

I downloaded the spreadsheet for the deaths by county, by week, April 1 thru today July 21. Here's my summary from the raw data:

 

Deaths in Texas from COVID-19

 

March 41

April 741

May 890

June 752

July 1 - 21 1,727

 

Total 4,151

 

 

So big totals for the entire U.S. need to be broken down so you can see what's really going on. Hot spots are hot spots and not to be ignored because they can be statistically buried in overall numbers. Hooray for places like New York who took matters in hand. Things are getting a bit out of hand here in the Lone Star State - of course, these totals are small relative to New York's - but you see how fast things can pop.

 

Gotta put a lid on those pops! We ain't done with this thing.

 

nat

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My brother-in-law is a Fox watcher, Trump lover, preaches herd immunity, anti-masker, and preacher of "it's only like the flu". Despite our political differences we do love each other and can discuss our differences without getting excited.

 

Recently he called and said he now has a big S on his chest - for Stupid.

 

His wife, son, and future daughter-in-law now all have COVID, and the hospitals are so full patients are in beds in the halls.

 

Herd immunity sounds like a good thing until you and/or your loved ones get this dreaded disease.

 

Wear your masks, keep your distance, refrain from risky behavior, and stay safe please. If you get sick, there is no "Undo", "Ctrl+Z" or "Command+Z". You can't go back and put that mask on, stay away from that gathering, or whatever.

 

Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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Best wishes to your BIL and his family, Bob. I don't wish this disease on anyone. I see people sharing things about deniers getting it and dying from it, like "ha ha, you dummy!!!" but I think it's just sad.

 

I was reading an article yesterday where the stats on the death rate aren't terribly different than other viruses, but the transmission rate is so much higher so many more people are dying from it. :(

"I'm so crazy, I don't know this is impossible! Hoo hoo!" - Daffy Duck

 

"The good news is that once you start piano you never have to worry about getting laid again. More time to practice!" - MOI

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Thanks Joe.

 

When it gets so close to home it turns from a worry into a nightmare.

 

Somehow BIL didn't get it (yet). He just had his knees replaced and perhaps because he is on so many drugs to fight possible infections it didn't get a foothold. Wife, son and his fiance aren't so lucky.

 

They are all nice folks and we are all hoping the heal quickly and completely.

 

Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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I was reading an article yesterday where the stats on the death rate aren't terribly different than other viruses, but the transmission rate is so much higher so many more people are dying from it. :(

 

we are only 5 months [ Feb- July] into it.

 

There is a chart that has the death rate for the US.

 

If you subtract, or take out the tri-state area, New York (NY), New Jersey (NJ) and Connecticut,

the US death rate is spiking up.

 

As many of us know, NY , the Governor, did a good job beating the curve in his region.

 

I put more emphasis on county/town #'s here in CA, a state with 40 million people

and 58 counties.

Why fit in, when you were born to stand out ?

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As many of us know, NY , the Governor, did a good job beating the curve in his region.

 

Or to be fair...as good as can be expected, given that NY was an "early adopter." It's unfortunate other states didn't look to NY to find out what worked and what didn't.

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NY has 30k deaths, 7x that of FL. So what, exactly, was this "curve" the NY governor beat? Does he deserve accolades because it wasn't 60k?

 

But then again, NY only lists 14.9% of its COVID deaths as coming from nursing home residents and staff, while the stats of it's neighbors for that are all in the 60% range. So maybe he IS a miracle worker- at manipulating the media, at least.

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New York screwed up badly and has the highest death rate in the country because their actions/lack of actions led to vulnerable people dying faster than anywhere else, but now they're to be praised because they're ahead of the curve?

 

Mind boggling...

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NY has 30k deaths, 7x that of FL. So what, exactly, was this "curve" the NY governor beat? Does he deserve accolades because it wasn't 60k?

 

But then again, NY only lists 14.9% of its COVID deaths as coming from nursing home residents and staff, while the stats of it's neighbors for that are all in the 60% range. So maybe he IS a miracle worker- at manipulating the media, at least.

 

I am not media suspicious as the various metrics and numbers do not lie.

 

You can view the above charts .

 

NYC has a 2% positivity rate.

https://abc7ny.com/coronavirus-new-york-jersey-vaccine-testing-nyc/6328843/

 

The death figures have to be normalized based on population. The tri-state area has 23.7 Million as of 2014.

Florida has 21.4M as of 2019. Ande there are other considerations .

 

No state has done a great job, or a near perfect job. NY is widely/objectively viewed as managing and controlling Corona 19 spread.

Why fit in, when you were born to stand out ?

My Soundcloud with many originals:

[70's Songwriter]

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There are a few things to remember. New York got hammered very early on by something with which no one had any experience. The population density is off the hook compared to someplace like Florida, and use of public transportation in enclosed spaces with people packed together like sardines is the optimum scenario for spreading the virus.

 

I want to emphasize a pandemic isn't a political issue, it's a medical one. Statistics are available on population of US states and the number of people in nursing homes in each state. You can do the math and find out which states have the highest and lowest percentages of people in nursing homes. More importantly, you have to remember there has been no significant national policy about any of this, including how deaths are counted. For example, New York did not count a death if someone from a nursing home was transferred to a hospital and died there. It wasn't a question of malevolence, but who set up the metrics, which are apparently different for each state.

 

Where Cuomo blew it was forcing nursing homes to accept COVID-19 patients who were discharged from hospitals, but were still infected. You could be charitable and say that he didn't really understand early on that even if someone was no longer showing symptoms, they could still infect others, and besides, ICU units needed to be freed up for those whose lives were being threatened. Or you can say he's an evil clown who wanted to kill old people, or that he was stupid, or that he was naive, or that he's a Democrat and that explains everything.

 

People can choose their opinions based on politics, but they can't choose their facts based on politics. When you realize that California and New York were twins early on in terms of the virus getting out of control, and now NY is almost back to normal while California keeps getting worse, something must have happened in New York that made a difference. Maybe it was Cuomo reversing being stupid and getting smarter as new data came in. Maybe it was luck, I don't know. Maybe it has nothing to do with politics, because Cuomo and Newsome are both Democrats.

 

It's important to realize one more thing. The study about 42% of the US deaths are from .6% of the population is dated May 26, using data ending May 22. At that point there were around 15,000 to 22,000 new cases per day and the rate of infections had plateaued, compared to now, when there are 50,000 to 70,000+ new cases every day and deaths have resumed an upward climb. So the virus was still in its early stages when the stats given in the article had been collected, and of course, the virus hit the most vulnerable first (remember, about 8% of people in nursing homes die from colds every year). Also note that due to a lack of testing tools, older people got tested first because they were vulnerable. Now fatalities are spreading to a much wider demographic, and more people are getting gravely ill instead of dying. I have found no updates to that article indicating current stats for what percentage of fatalities come from nursing homes and long-care facilities. It would be instructive to find out.

 

Basing opinions on outdated information is problematic.

 

Stats from July 18 are more meaningful than ones from May. For example, in Florida in March, the median age of positive cases was 65, As of July 17, the media age of new cases from the previous two weeks was 39.5. In California, ages 18-34 make up the largest proportion of new cases, with 35 to 49 year olds as the second largest group. Combined, they represent about 44% of new cases. In Arizona, 61% of COVID-19 cases are under the age of 45.

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So the virus burned through that state-and area- like wildfire, and ran it's course. All the neighboring states which were similarly ravaged also have similarly low positivity rates, some even lower. And with the exception of NJ, these same neighboring states have lower death rates than NY. So I guess you could say NY is a success, compared to NJ.

 

Now it's the sunbelt states' turn. But unfortunately for them, the virus has mutated into a more contagious form (although not any more lethal) so that is working against them (and for people who want to make those states whipping boys). When things run their course there, will FL have a positivity rate similar to that of NY's? And do prevailing narratives take away your right to ask such questions?

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Sometimes its better to be discussing a difficult topic face to face, over beer or wine.

 

Corona did not simply 'run its course ' in the tri state area.

 

Preventative efforts by state and local gov't kicked in to stop the spread.

 

And the reason for using try-state is that folks in CT and NJ commute , visit NYC and surrounding towns.

Lots of mobility in the 3 states which contributes to community spread . And making preventative efforts

much more difficult.

 

I don't know anyone who can accurately predict the future, for example, on what Covid will do to Floria

 

The problem isn't just Covid. Its human behavior and attitude and adaptation to the pandemic.

 

Our grandparents adapted their behavior to the 1918 pandemic in the US.

 

To my simple mind, its adapt or risk getting sick.

 

I choose adapt.

Why fit in, when you were born to stand out ?

My Soundcloud with many originals:

[70's Songwriter]

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So the virus burned through that state-and area- like wildfire, and ran it's course. All the neighboring states which were similarly ravaged also have similarly low positivity rates, some even lower. And with the exception of NJ, these same neighboring states have lower death rates than NY. So I guess you could say NY is a success, compared to NJ.

 

In the last week ending July 19, Connecticut new cases up +6.3%, deaths up by +269%. New Jersey, new cases down -21.7%, deaths down -50%, New York new cases up +11.5%, deaths down -8%. There are no easy answers, and generalizations change week-by-week.

 

Now it's the sunbelt states' turn. But unfortunately for them, the virus has mutated into a more contagious form (although not any more lethal) so that is working against them (and for people who want to make those states whipping boys).

 

I wish people would spend their time arguing over how to improve the situation instead of trying to assign blame. People up to and including the highest reaches of government did monumentally stupid things. We can't reverse that, it is what it is, now we have to devote our efforts to fixing the problem. And then it gets back to the debate about whether to open things up or close things down, and then politics enters into it again...and we go nowhere, while the pandemic itself does what it engineered itself to do.

 

And do prevailing narratives take away your right to ask such questions?

 

IMHO the problem is people not asking enough questions. Instead they're making statements based on limited knowledge, while simultaneously, major attempts are happening to manipulate opinions and spin facts for political reasons, on both sides of the aisle.

 

I just want to know when we'll be able to gig again, and whether there's going to be a NAMM show. No one can tell me, because NO ONE knows.

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I just want to know when we'll be able to gig again

 

Gigs are happening at The Birchmere in Alexandria VA, a DC suburb. The Nighthawks are playing tonight. It's a cool venue, I saw Rick Wakeman there September 2019.

 

https://www.birchmere.com/

 

With Covid, there is always change.

 

In VA, there is some risk:

 

https://richmond.com/news/virginia/covid-19-cases-increase-by-1-022-statewide-positivity-rate-up-to-7-9/article_129e450f-5109-560a-be42-e2f6c8f37328.html

 

VA COVID-19 cases increase by 1,022 statewide; positivity rate up to 7.9%

 

And what level of health risk a person takes on , is on them.

Why fit in, when you were born to stand out ?

My Soundcloud with many originals:

[70's Songwriter]

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And what level of health risk a person takes on , is on them.

 

Ain't that the truth. When I lived in Florida and was flying around all over the place, people asked if I was scared of flying. I replied that was terrified of flying...because I had to drive on I-95 to get to the airport :)

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[q

I just want to know when we'll be able to gig again, and whether there's going to be a NAMM show. No one can tell me, because NO ONE knows.

 

posted this several times, I don't know of anyone who can simply predict the future with good accuracy.

IOW, there are no sure things.

 

I do not recall where you reside, or where your ' gig radius ' is.

 

And every state has varying circumstances, so if I were in your shoes, I would be

analyzing, assessing current circumstances , getting all the relevant facts.

 

Then draw up 3 potential scenarios on what ' might ' happen in 6 months, again 1 year from now.

 

An ability to analyze and be creative are the skills needed to deep this out and plan ahead.

This also assumes, you have determined what risk you are willing to take.

Why fit in, when you were born to stand out ?

My Soundcloud with many originals:

[70's Songwriter]

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Took the last week off after tax season and just got onto this forum now.

 

So sorry to hear about your family Notes and I sincerely hope everybody recovers ok. Politics goes out the window when something like this happens.

 

As to recent posts in this thread, I think there are plenty of good points to be made from both sides of the political spectrum but right now in the last week of July, all that matters is how is this thing being managed going forward. We're going be hearing every possible point hammered at us running up to the election so I don't see any point of even mentioning any of those things here. Yes, I've been as guilty of that as anybody here but I'm going to stop. All I'll post about is the news and general comments concerning this virus.

 

To me it's become obvious that the predictions from experts in the field of pandemic viruses and how they work were completely correct. No matter what we do, no matter how well this governor or that governor of whatever state handled it, in the long run it doesn't matter. COVID is very persistent and will keep coming back and coming back for years to come even with a vaccine which is a minimum of six months away in the most optimistic scenario. We're not "stopping" this thing and we're not "adapting" to anything. All we're doing is trying to not overwhelm our hospitals and ICU's while the virus gradually goes through the population. That makes this situation a long term balancing act between not hitting hospitals too hard and not shutting down the economy too hard. Initially I thought it would be short term but that has not proven out. This is going to be a long slog through the mud.

 

I think with what we know and have seen a lot of us are going to get it sooner or later regardless of masks or anything else we do. The whole reason for the controversy surrounding mask wearing in the first place is they do not stop the virus at all. They simply "help" with it. I've seen numbers like they help maybe 60% of the time. Well then run the numbers. Every time we go out wearing a mask and come near an infected person we're 60% safe? I've seen tons of people simply wearing a bandana which is probalby down in the 25% range. Better than nothing for sure but hardly good solid protection against either transmitting it to others or keeping us from getting it. Trying to quantify the risk is useless other than to say going out for groceries and doctors appointments and little else say 3-4 times a month on average is 36-40 times a year and you can see the 60% protection rate will fail all of us eventually. For the majority who are still working, they're around people every day wearing masks. That 60% or even 70% rate might be good for them for six months to a year at the most? Maybe? Again, just we're just trying to slow it down but I think most workers in an office or dealing with the public will probably still get it if all they're doing is wearing masks and not a medical hazmat suit. As for social distancing? We all know how hit and miss that can be. I live in a retirement community and like to go for evening walks. I constantly run into a few other walkers and will stop and chat. I would guess about 70% of the time everybody maintains good distance but sometimes as we get engrossed in the conversation it can start to tighten up just out of habit. I'll find myself backing up a couple of feet and I'll see others doing the same. Masks or no masks every one of those encounters is a measurable risk. Nothing is 100%, all these measures do is reduce the risk, not eliminate it.

 

It boils down to the same thing we've all been saying since the beginning. We need much better treatments. If we know doctors can give is a really good chance of avoiding these long term effects we keep reading about and of course not dying it will go a long way towards getting back to normal even if it takes a year or more for a vaccine to make a difference. I hate to say this but I'll guess maybe a third of us on this forum will have caught it by this time next year no matter what we do.

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
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To

 

It boils down to the same thing we've all been saying since the beginning. We need much better treatments. If we know doctors can give is a really good chance of avoiding these long term effects we keep reading about and of course not dying it will go a long way towards getting back to normal even if it takes a year or more for a vaccine to make a difference. I hate to say this but I'll guess maybe a third of us on this forum will have caught it by this time next year no matter what we do.

 

Bob

 

But we don't have better treatments. And they might be 1 year from today.

 

I am not in favor to see how much we can stress our medical systems.

 

My choice is to adapt.

 

I can suck it up for a year.

Its worth it.

 

I don't need to go to restaurants. I don't need to go to church.

My life is very good, and I can find happiness without getting a manicure or a pair of running shoes

at a store. The beach can wait. I can go to Carmel in summer 2021.

 

I don't need to take on risk by exposing myself to folks who are asymptomatic.

 

The big problem TODAY is attitude, behavior. An unwillingness to adapt.

An unwillingness to make small sacrifices. The examples I listed above are small IMO.

 

Our grandparents adapted to the 1918 Pandemic.

 

They understood self sacrifice.

 

I think there are many people who can take a long view, and take on the

responsibility.

 

Many understand,, you let your guard down, take off your mask in a social setting, to drink your beer,

some one next to you is asymptomatic, you are exposed and Covid is likely to get you.

 

Thats how it spreads.

we are on our own for the next year.

Why fit in, when you were born to stand out ?

My Soundcloud with many originals:

[70's Songwriter]

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I just want to know when we'll be able to gig again

 

Gigs are happening at The Birchmere in Alexandria VA, a DC suburb. The Nighthawks are playing tonight. It's a cool venue, I saw Rick Wakeman there September 2019.

 

https://www.birchmere.com/

 

With Covid, there is always change.

 

In VA, there is some risk:

 

https://richmond.com/news/virginia/covid-19-cases-increase-by-1-022-statewide-positivity-rate-up-to-7-9/article_129e450f-5109-560a-be42-e2f6c8f37328.html

 

VA COVID-19 cases increase by 1,022 statewide; positivity rate up to 7.9%

 

And what level of health risk a person takes on , is on them.

 

Yeah, Dave and I live in the area. We know what's up with VA, thanks.

 

Like it or not, the Birchmere made their own decision on whether or not to reopen for business. If you click the link that Dave posted, you will see the Birchmere's COVID policy. We can presume that every single person who is pondering whether to attend a show at The Birchmere is an adult who knows how to read, will read the COVD policy, and make an informed decision based on that.

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[quote

 

Like it or not, the Birchmere made their own decision on whether or not to reopen for business. If you click the link that Dave posted, you will see the Birchmere's COVID policy. We can presume that every single person who is pondering whether to attend a show at The Birchmere is an adult who knows how to read, will read the COVD policy, and make an informed decision based on that.

 

 

Its not up to me to like or not like what Birchmere does.

 

The relevant question is do you trust your health in what Birchmere does.

 

And do you trust that every one

at the venue is taking the precautions while you are there next to them ?

 

Like I mentioned, this depends on your tolerance to health risk while socializing.

Why fit in, when you were born to stand out ?

My Soundcloud with many originals:

[70's Songwriter]

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I can't tell you when we are going to be able to gig again Craig, but I can tell you when I'm NOT going to gig again, and that is soon.

 

At this time of the year our calendar for the winter tourist season is usually full. Since we got off the cruise ships in December of 1989 this has been the rule. This year is the exception. Other than Christmas and New Years Eve we have nothing - zip - nada - zilch. And those two dates are both at an RV resort that hosts 600 RV families from Canada and another 300 from the US every year. So I suspect both dates will be canceled. Who wants to come to the COVID capital of the world?

 

So for me the dilemma is (1) It's a sad thing that I'll be unemployed for a year and (2) considering how contagious this is, it's a good thing that I'll be unemployed for a year (or more).

 

Similar to GregC, I don't need to eat at a restaurant, I don't need to go to the symphony, I don't need to go to the theater (my friends the actors are out of work anyway), I don't need to go to the gym, I don't need to get a pro haircut (I don't have that much hair anyway), I don't need to go to the beach, I don't need to get a drink at a bar, I don't need to go to the Cinema, I don't need to go to Guitar Center, I don't need to go shopping for anything but groceries -- I don't need to expose myself to COVID roulette any more than is absolutely necessary.

 

Mortgage and cars are paid off, and we have zero debt. We can live on very little for a long time.

 

We may or may not get a vaccine. We never got one for AIDS. Time will tell. But as time goes on, the odds of a vaccine are greater, and that's not all. As time goes on and we learn more and more about treating the disease, the survival rate will go up, and the damage will lessen for most people.

 

All the great plagues of history from the Black Death to Polio to Diphtheria, to Smallpox, to whatever have ended one way or another. I remain optomistic that this one will end sooner or later (I hope sooner). So my strategy is to stay on my little half acre in paradise, isolate with my dear wife, play music with her a few times or more a week, work on new Band-in-a-Box aftermarket products every day, read books, play games with said DW, work in the yard a bit, and do my best to wait it out.

 

I'll only go out when I have to, I'll wear mask & gloves, bring disinfectant, and when I get home, everything gets disinfected before it comes in the house.

 

Defying governor's orders, our county and the one to the south legislated a mandatory mask ordinance. When I need groceries, I will shop in these two counties and not the one to the north that resisted enacting a mask ordinance.

 

If a vaccine comes, we've beat the game. If it fizzles out like some have, we've beat the game.. If it doesn't end and medical science finds better and better ways to treat this virus, we've still won.

 

Exposing ourselves we have a lot to lose, and there is no Ctrl+Z or Command+Z if you get sick.

 

Insights and incites by Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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I just want to know when we'll be able to gig again

 

My wife and I did two gigs in June, we hired an excellent band to play at our annual 3rd of July party where we and other friends also spent time on stage. Tomorrow night we've got friends coming to our house after some bachelor/bachelorette festivities and we've agreed to play for them. Sunday we have an afternoon gig at a town 30 miles east and then August 1st we're scheduled to appear at a lake side bar on Lake of the Ozarks in Missouri.

 

We recently returned from our M/C vacation trip where we rode just barely shy of 3300 miles through eight different states, stayed in hotels, dined out and did "touristy" things to the extent that we could. From my own account I've spent over $3400 dining out so far this year. I'm certain people would be astounded at some of the activities I participated in and yet I haven't contracted this virus. The reason is actually quite simple, you actually have to get intimately close to someone who is actually infected to get this. You can choose to believe that or not however there's no denying that I'm the living proof.

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The relevant question is do you trust your health in what Birchmere does.

 

That is your question, not the OP's question. I was just responding to the OP's question of "when can I gig again"? and I answered.

 

I wasn't trying to get lost in the weeds as you did, but it's the internet and you have every right to do as such

:nopity:
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have you been tested ?

 

you might be asymptomatic.

 

Same with wife

 

Testing is the proof. I have been tested [ last week ]

Why fit in, when you were born to stand out ?

My Soundcloud with many originals:

[70's Songwriter]

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The relevant question is do you trust your health in what Birchmere does.

 

That is your question, not the OP's question. I was just responding to the OP's question of "when can I gig again"? and I answered.

 

I wasn't trying to get lost in the weeds as you did, but it's the internet and you have every right to do as such

 

So Craig is going to gig in VA ?

 

I guess you were trying to help.

 

BTW, its up to you on what posts to read or not read.

Why fit in, when you were born to stand out ?

My Soundcloud with many originals:

[70's Songwriter]

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