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OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?


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But as the article says: "The rate of hospitalization for people who test positive for COVID-19 in their 20s is under 4%, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention...The fatality rate for people in their 20s and 30s without underlying health conditions is about 0.1%."

 

How about the other bits of the story?

 

"Now, nearly half of new coronavirus cases in the Seattle area are showing up in those in their 20s and 30s, according to a recent analysis of state data."

 

"The story is similar in California. People under 35 now make up about 44% of new infections in that state, compared to 29% last month, according to an analysis of state data by infectious disease epidemiologist George Lemp."

 

Even the Texas governor had something to say about it:

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/16/texas-coronavirus-spike-young-adults/

 

They're hardly out of the woods, sir. I think they just walked into the woods...

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But as the article says: "The rate of hospitalization for people who test positive for COVID-19 in their 20s is under 4%, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention...The fatality rate for people in their 20s and 30s without underlying health conditions is about 0.1%."

 

How about the other bits of the story?

 

"Now, nearly half of new coronavirus cases in the Seattle area are showing up in those in their 20s and 30s, according to a recent analysis of state data."

 

"The story is similar in California. People under 35 now make up about 44% of new infections in that state, compared to 29% last month, according to an analysis of state data by infectious disease epidemiologist George Lemp."

 

Even the Texas governor had something to say about it:

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/16/texas-coronavirus-spike-young-adults/

 

They're hardly out of the woods, sir. I think they just walked into the woods...

 

But at least based on what the article says, for less than 4% of them, it involves hospitalization. And under 0.1% will die from it...and if they're stupid when they walk into the woods, probably more of them will be killed be bears and snakes.

 

I don't mean to minimize the overall negative effects on society. Similarly, those who have experienced COVID-19 death at close range have a different perspective from those who only see news headlines about the number of people who have it. I'm just saying that article is essentially saying "yeah, you're testing positive for it, but don't worry too much. Odds are you'll be okay."

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But as the article says: "The rate of hospitalization for people who test positive for COVID-19 in their 20s is under 4%, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention...The fatality rate for people in their 20s and 30s without underlying health conditions is about 0.1%."

 

How about the other bits of the story?

 

"Now, nearly half of new coronavirus cases in the Seattle area are showing up in those in their 20s and 30s, according to a recent analysis of state data."

 

"The story is similar in California. People under 35 now make up about 44% of new infections in that state, compared to 29% last month, according to an analysis of state data by infectious disease epidemiologist George Lemp."

 

Even the Texas governor had something to say about it:

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/16/texas-coronavirus-spike-young-adults/

 

They're hardly out of the woods, sir. I think they just walked into the woods...

 

But at least based on what the article says, for less than 4% of them, it involves hospitalization. And under 0.1% will die from it...and if they're stupid when they walk into the woods, probably more of them will be killed be bears and snakes.

 

I don't mean to minimize the overall negative effects on society. Similarly, those who have experienced COVID-19 death at close range have a different perspective from those who only see news headlines about the number of people who have it. I'm just saying that article is essentially saying "yeah, you're testing positive for it, but don't worry too much. Odds are you'll be okay."

 

I'm a bit confused by your stance.

 

The article reports the efforts of a variety of officials from a variety of political affiliations to convince younger adults to take this disease more seriously. You disagree with all of them?

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Absolute numbers will increase, but the article seems to indicate that relative numbers have already been determined. Of course, if a million 20-year-olds get it, even with a 0.1% mortality rate, that's still 1,000 people dying.

 

I dunno. The boomer generation was going to change the world. Free of having lived through world wars and depressions, it was going to make civil rights happen, end racism, give peace a chance, be more responsible toward the environment, make equal rights a reality, and create great music :) What happened? Greed, cocaine, a housing crash, racism and sexism that continued to fester, and the accumulation of trillions (and trillions) of dollars of debt, to be passed down to future generations. Maybe the boomer generation is going to go out not with a bang, but with the whimper of ventilators playing in the background.

 

Maybe COVID-19 is like declaring bankruptcy. The older generation blew it, maybe the younger one will wipe the slate clean, survive, and make a difference. I tend to doubt it, though. Once people get power, they get corrupt.

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Absolute numbers will increase, but the article seems to indicate that relative numbers have already been determined. Of course, if a million 20-year-olds get it, even with a 0.1% mortality rate, that's still 1,000 people dying.

 

The article reports the efforts of a variety of officials from a variety of political affiliations to convince younger adults to take this disease more seriously. So are you arguing that they shouldn't even bother?

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I'll jump and say yes, exactly. All of this was predicted and totally expected by anybody with half a brain as soon as Memorial Day hit. Then all the protests hit just to make it you know, more relevant.

 

Look at it from the younger people's pov. 40% are asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms, 56% have more serious symptoms but still recover at home and 4% get hospitalized. 1,000 deaths out of a million? Sounds like pretty long odds to me. Think if that like this. Ever been to a Redskins game? The stadium holds about 70,000 people and say they're all under 35. 0.1% means out that huge ocean of people 70 will die of this virus. I doubt if any single individual that age would give those odds a single thought. And I think a 0.1% fatality rate is too high for that age group anyway. Why? Several reasons but the the latest one is dexamethasone. An article about that was posted here a few days ago. It seems very real not some 80 person anecdotal report. It only works when your body has basically crashed in the ICU but when that happens it reduces the death rate by 35% for those on ventilators and somewhat less than that if you're on oxygen. There will be more discoveries like that so if you are even a bit optimistic, that death rate will continue to go down. Yes, those who got to that point could very well have serious long term effects but still, very long odds from their pov.

 

No, they're not going to stop what they're doing unless the authorities lock things down again backed up with police action....Oh. right. That's not happening. How's your (our) statues doing in DC?

 

That means it is what it is.

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
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Absolute numbers will increase, but the article seems to indicate that relative numbers have already been determined. Of course, if a million 20-year-olds get it, even with a 0.1% mortality rate, that's still 1,000 people dying.

 

The article reports the efforts of a variety of officials from a variety of political affiliations to convince younger adults to take this disease more seriously. So are you arguing that they shouldn't even bother?

I've seen reports here (can't find the link right now) the hospitalizations going up and administrators starting to worry again. I've said it before, Gov, I don't think this disease should be taken lightly by anyone regardless of their age.

"I'm so crazy, I don't know this is impossible! Hoo hoo!" - Daffy Duck

 

"The good news is that once you start piano you never have to worry about getting laid again. More time to practice!" - MOI

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We can say only a few of those young folks will die, but what about those who will be forever impaired by some permanent damage to one or more of their organs? Permanent brain, kidney, liver, heart, lung and other organ damage may not kill them this month, but will shorten their life span for sure.

 

And yes, the Boomers blew it. Madison Avenue turned the "peace and love" generation into the "me generation" and guaranteed they will do the same to the next generation, and the one after that, and the one after that.

 

This is evident already by people flooding into reopened bars and other gathering places, people refusing to wear masks or keep social distancing, and a divided country where one philosophical faction calls the other childish names and vice versa (the house divided is easier to control). Shouting names at each other is not the way to solve problems, but it is a way for the oligarchy to keep us under their thumbs.

 

The first problem is that Capitalism is evil. The second problems is we haven't figured out a system that is less evil - History proves that Communism, Monarchies and Dictatorships are worse.

 

The rich and powerful, the kings and/or the oligarchy, have always figured out how to divide the proletariat so they can exploit the lives of the poorer to increase their personal fortunes.

 

During plagues, the disease doesn't discriminate on social status, but the historically rich have the resources to protect themselves better. During the black death the rich had the resources to get out of town and wait it out. The poor had to stay put and put food on the table. That sounds similar to today.

 

If you really want to keep Social Security solvent, removing the boomers won't do it, voting against the candidates who want to "Starve The Beast" (google that) is your only hope.

 

Young people feel invincible. I did. We aren't ever going to get them to act right because social interaction, raging hormones, 'getting lucky', etc. are drives -- and the feeling of immortality doesn't provide a limiter.

 

We've all said or heard it. "Anyone can quit smoking but it takes a man to stand up to cancer" ... "If it's too loud, you are too old" ... "I'll quit playing with it when I need glasses" ... "Hold my beer" :D

 

Florida broke another record in confirmed cases yesterday, as it has day after day. The governor says it's because of more testing, but statistics show only the slightest increase in testing. He says there are plenty of hospital rooms, but he cherry picks the counties that have beds available while from Palm Beach to Miami they are reporting shortages. He says young people don't die as often, but I read about young people with permanent organ damage.

 

As the numbers go up and up, those who feel vulnerable will still be isolating, saving their money instead of spending it, and that will not help the economy.

 

Florida is dependent on tourist dollars for it's economy and tax base (plus my job). Our state is not looking like a place many people are going to spend the winter this year. I'm already out of work for 7 months, and this reckless re-opening for the sake of re-election will probably extend that. Our winter season is usually booked by now, but there aren't a handful of contracts signed, so it looks like my impact on the economy will be limited. I like going out to dinner with my wife, but I have to think about our savings so it's a no-no, along with concerts, road trips, and so on.

 

Those of us in the hospitality industry, and we are a huge hunk of the state's population, will not be adding anything to the hastily re-opened economy. The seniors hunkering down at home will not be adding much either. The winter residents who are staying 'up north' won't be adding anything. That means less business for not only restaurants and hotels, but grocery stores, music stores, gas stations, tax based government services, farmers, theaters, gift stores and hundreds more trickle down businesses.

 

All the young people in the area can't fix that.

 

What frustrates me is I don't know what to do about it any more than anyone else. Opening back up recklessly is not going to help the economy. Extended self-isolating isn't going to help us either. Vaccines and cures are a long way off, and that is IF they arrive at all (we haven't been able to prevent or cure AIDS yet, just manage it with a compromise that is tough, but better than death).

 

This goes back to Craig's original question, "Now what?????"

 

For me it's hunker down at home with my beautiful wife and best friend, rehearse daily to keep our chops up, learn new songs in case we ever get back to gigging, write new style e-disks for Band-in-a-Box, write new fake e-disks for Band-in-a-Box, and spend as little discretionary money as possible.

 

I guess being unemployed is better than resting underground.

 

Insights and incites by Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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I find the NPR article to be one of the more honest and useful write-ups of the pandemic. The rate and circumstances of testing, identifying the groups responsible for the spikes, what activity they were doing that could account for contracting COVID (i.e. indoor vs outdoor), percentage of hospitalizations, percentage of the asymptomatic, mortality rates of the various groups- that's all useful info and intentionally leaving any of it out (which IMO happens frequently), to me, reveals an agenda of instilling as much fear of the virus as possible. But if you don't feel obligated to accept everything you read about COVID, even if you sense an agenda, you're labeled as a "virus hoaxer" or freedom fanatic.

 

To me, knowing that the young have a .1% mortality rate from COVID is more useful info than being informed of a 20-something somewhere, who developed serious complications from contracting it. Meaningless without some idea of the frequency that happens.

 

Deleted my rant about safety because at 59, I am no longer the adrenaline junkie I never was in the 1st place.

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Absolute numbers will increase, but the article seems to indicate that relative numbers have already been determined. Of course, if a million 20-year-olds get it, even with a 0.1% mortality rate, that's still 1,000 people dying.

 

The article reports the efforts of a variety of officials from a variety of political affiliations to convince younger adults to take this disease more seriously. So are you arguing that they shouldn't even bother?

 

Not at all. I think everyone should take it seriously, and everyone should be respectful of other people's health. I also think people shouldn't run red lights, cheat on their taxes, or steal copyrighted music, but some will assess the odds of being caught as being minimal, and decide to go ahead anyway.

 

As I said previously, "I don't mean to minimize the overall negative effects on society. Similarly, those who have experienced COVID-19 death at close range have a different perspective from those who only see news headlines about the number of people who have it. I'm just saying that article is essentially saying 'yeah, you're testing positive for it, but don't worry too much. Odds are you'll be okay.'" I think for most people who are currently considered not particularly vulnerable, the last sentence will be their takeaway from the article, not "Well even if I don't get it, I need to be mindful of other people...and besides, there may be long-term effects of which I'm not aware."

 

I don't think I'm being too cynical, society as a whole has become increasingly selfish over the last few decades.

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I'll jump and say yes, exactly.

 

Exactly what? You don't agree with what the Texas and Florida governors are saying?

 

I saw your question about news about DC statues. I believe Craig started a different thread that is a more appropriate for discussing that. Ask him if you can't find the thread.

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strap yourselves in, folks. This long and bumpy ride is far from over

 

can't believe that post was only 3 days ago. But wait, there's more.

Flurry of positive coronavirus tests in athletes hurts U.S. restart plans

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sport-usa/flurry-of-positive-coronavirus-tests-in-athletes-hurts-u-s-restart-plans-idUSKBN23R003

Brazil passes 1 million coronavirus cases with no end in sight

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil/brazil-passes-1-million-coronavirus-cases-with-no-end-in-sight-idUSKBN23Q35R

 

India reports record rise in coronavirus cases; Delhi cancels all medical staff leave

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india/india-reports-record-rise-in-coronavirus-cases-delhi-cancels-all-medical-staff-leave-idUSKBN23R0JP

 

German coronavirus outbreak at abattoir infects more than 1,000

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-meat-toennies/german-coronavirus-outbreak-at-abattoir-infects-more-than-1000-idUSKBN23R0Q5

:nopity:
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<...snip...>

Exactly what? You don't agree with what the Texas and Florida governors are saying? <...>

 

Excuse me for jumping in here.

 

I don't know about Texas, but I definitely disagree with what the Florida governor is saying.

 

First of all, there was an employee who refused to fudge the figures on the "COVID dashboard" to make the state look healthier than it is by minimizing the numbers. The governor fired her and found someone who would commit fraud for our criminal governor (fraud is still a crime, isn't it?)

 

Next as we go day after day after day after day of record breaking after record breaking numbers of confirmed cases, our governor tried to say it was due to increased testing which sounds logical but it's fraudulent news as there is only a slight uptick in testing (he should be charged with fraud for that too). Then when his lie was exposed he changed his mind and is blaming it on "Mexican watermelon pickers". Blame it on a defenseless minority. That's classless. He's sounding more and more like a certain stable genius who makes up excuses on the spot every day.

 

So I don't believe what any politician, news pundit, religious leader, or anyone else says except scientists who post their findings in peer reviewed, respected scientific journals. That is open to change as peers review and retest, but science works best that way and it is more reliable than people with an agenda.

 

If I go out and catch it, I might have a .1% chance of dying (we really don't know, do we?). That is like saying, "Pick a number between 1 and 1000 and if you pick the number I have written on this hidden piece of paper, I'll shoot you through the heart with this handgun. If you don't pick that number, I'll let you live and pick again with a different hidden number tomorrow.

 

What if it's 1%. Then it's pick a number between 1 and 100. Worse odds.

 

Would any of your "back to normal for the Dow Jones" make either arrangement with anyone?

 

That's what you are doing when you potentially expose yourself.

 

Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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Just doing some YT surfing and found the Mike Ledonne Trio doing a livestream from a club called Smalls. Definitely weird, no crowd and they all wearing masks. Nothing happens until the 10 minute mark.

 

[video:youtube]

 

Joey D did one from his house:

 

[video:youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kk53QWfB3Cs

 

Sad, very sad. But if this is all we can do then I guess this is it.

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
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Lots and lots of musicians are doing live streams, Bob. This list includes forum members Jim Alfredson & Organissimo in his basement, Kevin Anker and a couple of different bands in his driveway, and Josh Paxton with a few different singers both in his home and select gigs he determines to be safe. The latter two are only streaming on Facebook unfortunately (I prefer Youtube streams because they work better on my Apple TV and you can go to the stream before they start broadcasting. On FB you can only load the stream once they start it). Jim also streams on YT. His is well-done. He has multiple cameras and it's directed by his wife. Sometimes Josh runs an overhead camera on his keyboard so us technique geeks can watch his hands. Kevin gets good sound considering he just uses an iPhone and they're outdoors socially distanced from each other. They all share links where you can tip them real money.

 

Jon Cleary, Emmet Cohen, Peter Martin are some other pianists you may be interested in who also stream shows. Romero Lubambo, Jesse Dayton, Seth Walker, Band of Heathens are other acts who I frequently catch on their live streams, and some bands such as Tedeschi Trucks Band have a catalog of recorded concerts they broadcast.

 

I can scrounge up links to any of these if you're interested. I wouldn't be surprised that if you have some favorites, they are doing live streams as well.

 

The crazy thing is that I'm seeing more "live" music than I ever did with this, and I never have to leave my house! I try to tip well.

"I'm so crazy, I don't know this is impossible! Hoo hoo!" - Daffy Duck

 

"The good news is that once you start piano you never have to worry about getting laid again. More time to practice!" - MOI

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Lots and lots of musicians are doing live streams...The crazy thing is that I'm seeing more "live" music than I ever did with this, and I never have to leave my house! I try to tip well.

 

And we're back to thread's original premise...which is that the corona virus isn't going away, so what do we do now?

 

It's good you're tipping well, and hopefully, people will support the live streaming movement so that even after the pandemic is no longer a threat, there's a new avenue for musicians to get exposure.

 

As to the not going away part, Scientific American published a very interesting article about whether comparing deaths from COVID-19 to the flu is valid. Apparently, it's not.

 

Another interesting development is that more people in the 20-30 age bracket are getting hit by the new spikes. Although they don't die at the same rate as older people, they can get really, really sick. So if we're counting on younger people to re-open the economy because they can get away with it...maybe they can't. If I was 25 and told "Sure, no problem going to a club, you won't die...but you might get so sick you'll wish you had," I'd stay at home.

 

What I'm really wondering about the "what do we do now?" part is how anything related to live sound - manufacturers, venues, engineers - are going to survive while this thing persists. Live venues will be the last to open up, and the most fraught for those who remain concerned about catching the disease. Fortunately a lot of the manufacturers are make mixers are diversified in other areas, but still, even if they're only 20% of your business, that's a big chunk to lose.

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Another interesting development is that more people in the 20-30 age bracket are getting hit by the new spikes. Although they don't die at the same rate as older people, they can get really, really sick. So if we're counting on younger people to re-open the economy because they can get away with it...maybe they can't. If I was 25 and told "Sure, no problem going to a club, you won't die...but you might get so sick you'll wish you had," I'd stay at home.

 

This is easier to understand than what you were trying to communicate yesterday.

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Another interesting development is that more people in the 20-30 age bracket are getting hit by the new spikes. Although they don't die at the same rate as older people, they can get really, really sick.

 

 

And they will continue to be re-spreading the disease.

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When I said sad, very sad Joe I was thinking of two things. One, performing with no audience sucks, we're all performers here I don't have to explain that. Two, I was being selfish and thinking of myself and the thousands of weekend warriors who don't have a catalog of stuff including video shows to broadcast. I don't know anyone who has a video camera or has experience in creating and editing video, no place to record it or stream it from and last but not least all we do are covers and you can't stream most covers without permission. People higher up the food chain have all that figured out.

 

I really miss performing. I would have had 3 or 4 gigs on Catalina for July 4th including the yacht club plus the 2 or 3 casuals a month I've missed since this started. I get to visit friends and play in front of large crowds coming over on the boat from the mainland plus from a cruise ship that's always anchored a few hundred yards outside of Avalon every few days during the summer and especially for holidays. Catalina is still shut down. Only two boats a day, morning and evening for residents with ID and day workers also with proof of employment. No casual visitors.

 

Notes, I agree with everything you say except for your continued references to linking opening up the economy to some kind of evil way to boost the DOW. Look at Catalina. All the businesses, all the hotels, all the shops, the harbor moorings, everything is basically shut down. The number of permanent residents there are not enough to support anything. Von's market just spent who knows how much building a brand new full size grocery store that opened last November because the island was doing so well. Lots of redevelopment and rebuilding going on. Many of the buildings in Avalon go back to the 20's and were falling apart. Two big hotels, the Glenmore and the Atwater were closed for almost two years for renovations and just reopened last fall along with the Von's after spending millions. They had it timed for Christmas, New Years plus looking forward to this past spring. All those businesses are seriously hurting right now and that has squat to do with the DOW. It's exactly the same thing in S. Florida too. I don't want to give an economics lesson but all the DOW is is us. I mean literally us as in you and me. We work for people with money who in turn work for bigger people with money all the way up the line to Ford or Apple and all the other companies who are listed on the stock exchange. They go under, we all go under simple as that.

 

This is why I'm totally conflicted like a lot of us in this thread. On the one hand I totally agree, this virus is not going away, it doesn't care what we think so the risk is there now and will continue to be there until there's a proven vaccine or good therapies. But...the country cannot be shut down again, it simply can't for both psychological and economic reasons regardless of what anybody thinks. It if does get shut down again then we're truly screwed. You want to know my big worry now? It's that the younger people do wise up, start taking serious precautions and that will slow the infections. Sounds good, right? Not so fast Grasshopper. That means no reopening the economy because they're not going to work either. And without them working their employers will start to go out of business and it turns into a domino effect. The stimulus money cannot last forever. This is really serious because not all the lost jobs are coming back anyway but at least if the ones that are available have workers to fill them it won't be so bad but if they don't...

 

Then what?

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
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Like you Bob, this Bob also really misses an audience.

 

Unlike some who are content with video streaming, recording in a studio, and/or making videos, what this Bob (Notes) does is have a dialog with the audience.

 

I talk to them, they talk to me, I observe how they are reacting to each song, and that gives me an idea as to what song to call next. I run them through emotions, build them up to a peak, gently let them down so I can build them to another peak, I have running gags with the audience, I know the songs they request and play them so they don't have to ask (it makes them feel as special as they are to me), I know about their ups, their downs, their accomplishments, their troubles, because they are more than an audience, they are extended family.

 

Yes I know we can't go on forever closed down. But rushing to open too soon is not a good solution. How are the dead people going to help the economy? How are permanently impaired citizens going to help the economy?

 

And of course, printing more fiat money is only going to lead to more inflation which will reduce the buying power of what we have managed to save and invest in. My money could double, but if inflation causes prices to double, what good is that?

 

But for me, most importantly, is the human toll of deaths for some and permanent lung, brain, kidney, heart, and other organ damage for many others worth the price of opening too soon?

 

I read a report from a doctor last night who confirmed again that young people with mild symptoms are having permanently reduced lung, kidney, heart, brain, and other organ damage that will no doubt shorten their lives and lower their quality of life. A young, healthy skin diver who used to be able to free dive to over 70 feet before COVID will never be able to make 30 again in his lifetime. That also means that his body will be deprived of oxygen for the rest of his shortened life.

 

In Florida we went from 1,000, to 2,000 to 3,000, now to 4,000 new cases per day in the 3rd week after the state opened up, and it is a limited reopening at that. The governor is plodding on because he wants the economy to look good. On the other hand, it's killing any hopes of a recovery to our tourist economy. Who wants to play "COVID roulette" by vacationing in the new hot spot?

 

When the people who run the giant corporations are quarantining themselves in their estates or mega-yachts and are expecting their workers to expose themselves to potential death and disability in order to keep the economy up, I call it asking us to die for the DOW. Call it what you want.

 

"OK meat plant workers, warehouse employees, farm workers, grocery baggers, and other wage earners, get to work and risk your lives. I won't be risking mine, because my life is more important than yours."

 

A good leader should never ask those in their charge to do anything they will not do themselves.

 

So back on topic, what are we musicians supposed to do?

 

If we all started streaming, do you think we will make enough in our virtual tip jars to pay for the expense and make a living too? "Let me see, out of the many thousands of home-brew band videos streaming, which one should I watch?" And as you know, most people have the impression that Internet content should be free so how much are they going to part with? Or will they remain anonymous at home?

 

Oh and we have the Stones on one feed, Eilish on another, some soft-core porn-star pretending to sing with auto-tune on another, Usher on another, Legend on another, Krall and Costello on another, and so on. They have great sound, HI-D images, multiple cameras, great editing, a fantastic set, an entertaining and/or sexually attractive show, and who wants to see a band with one Gopro camera play in their garage or living room?

 

No, I don't think streaming is the option for all of us.

 

What frustrates me is that I don't know the solution either. Fortunately I'm collecting Social Security (until the "Starve The Beast" elected officials take it away) and I have a little Band-in-a-Box aftermarket sideline plus some savings so Leilani and I can afford to wait it out if we live frugally enough. Keep the electric bill to around $50/month, don't drive unless you have to, no eating out or doing other unnecessary things to help the economy, and think about every dollar before spending it because we don't know how long this is going to last. But others don't have that luxury. I know other musicians, waiters/waitresses, and bartenders who have rent or mortgages and aren't old enough to collect the money we've all been putting away for life.

 

Add to this live theater, movies, sports arenas, yoga studios, dance venues, and the employees of Hertz and the other major bankrupt corporations. That's a lot of people out of work.

 

My neighbor has rental properties in the medium-low income parts of town (not a so called slumlord but not renting high end properties either). Many of his tenants can't pay the rent because their good, steady jobs are gone or on-hold. He still has to pay his mortgages. That's not working out too well.

 

So what now? As I can tell by the length of this and other threads, nobody can answer that question yet.

 

Any suggestions?

 

Insights and incites by Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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If we all started streaming, do you think we will make enough in our virtual tip jars to pay for the expense and make a living too?

 

Streaming won't pay the bills.

 

So what now? As I can tell by the length of this and other threads, nobody can answer that question yet. Any suggestions?

 

The reason why we're conflicted has a lot to do with not knowing the potential outcome.

 

The latest in my list of people who've died from COVID-19 is a 27-year-old dancer. No underlying conditions, perfect health, was on a ventilator, was finally able to get off of it, died four days later. Those of us who are alive have a limited ability to contribute to the economy, but those who are dead have no ability to contribute to the economy.

 

Until people you know start dying, COVID-19 isn't quite real. And Notes, you're right - no way I'm going to Florida right now, even though I have reasons to go.

 

The only possible answer is shared, and deep, sacrifice. People can't pay their rent so landlords can't pay their mortgage. The banks are swimming in money right now. They can afford to ease up on the person paying the mortgage, who can then ease up on the people who can't pay rent, who can then spend their money on other things that keep the economy as a whole going as opposed to increasing a bank's bottom line. To be fair, banks provide credit to people and companies starting new projects and expanding, and their form of shared sacrifice is already in place via a huge reduction in interest rates. But, there needs to be a top-down sacrifice from everyone. Companies are going to have to accept less profit. Shareholders will have to expect lower dividends. Landlords will have to expect lower rents. Taxes will have to increase on those who continue to make money, or who are profiting from the virus instead of being hit by it.

 

But Americans aren't even willing to make the minuscule sacrifice of wearing a mask in public, so what I've mentioned above is, shall we say, unlikely.

 

Let's not forget there are some people who are sitting on a ton of money, yet we have few examples of people like Twitter's Jack Dorsey, who donated a billion dollars - one-third of his net worth! - to COVID-19 relief. Taylor Swift gave a million dollars to help the people in Nashville whose lives were destroyed by the tornados that hit concurrently with COVID-19, and is paying the salaries and three months of healthcare for the people who work in Nashville's main (only?) record store. And while not publicized, she's also given money, no strings attached, to various fans in hardship situations. And in our little corner of the world, the MIDI Manufacturers Association gave $18,000 to MusiCares for COVID-19 relief for artists. I'm sure those companies would rather have spent their profits on growing their businesses, but they didn't.

 

Imagine if someone with Taylor Swift's or Jack Dorsey's mentality ran Chase, B of A, CitiGroup, etc.

 

Another problem is some businesses run on such thin margins there's nothing left to give, like supermarkets. They're taking food that would normally be thrown out (e.g., just past the best-by date) and donating it to churches and such...but there's only so much they can do without going out of business. Having supermarkets go out of business would be a real problem.

 

Everyone wants to return to business as usual. That is not possible. There needs to be a level of sacrifice that countries experience only during wars, so it's a not a good time for a country where many citizens (and companies) are spoiled and have a massive sense of entitlement. How selfish are we? Selfish enough that by continuing to have cases increase here instead of tamping them down, we're endangering new flare-ups in the rest of the world, and extended the length of time where things are really messed up.

 

The biggest question is deaths. They're still decreasing in the US, but that may be illusory. Given that it's a lagging indicator, we don't know if the sudden increase in new cases that hit about 7-10 days ago is going to have the number of deaths spike as well...it's too soon to tell.

 

As to re-opening, when I've gotten colds in the past, if I took it easy I was out of commission for a while, but then I got better. If I pushed when I started to feel a little better, I'd end up getting a relapse, and be out of commission for longer than if I'd just rested. I think the country is in a similar situation now.

 

So here's my solution: The entire population has to have a radical shift in consciousness. A more likely solution is that beneficent Martian space brothers will solve everything :)

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One method that might move things forward a bit might be Lessons on Coronavirus Testing From the Adult Film Industry.

"I'm so crazy, I don't know this is impossible! Hoo hoo!" - Daffy Duck

 

"The good news is that once you start piano you never have to worry about getting laid again. More time to practice!" - MOI

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The virus has struck close to home in our little world again. My wife works for the Austin school district, the department that checks kid's vision and hearing. All the department is staffed by women, most of them in the over-55 category. They keep in touch during the summer - and today's news is that the only co-worker that has come down with it is the youngest - mid-30s. And her entire family has it, including a sister and all her household. The sister is in ICU - the rest are so far not that bad off.

 

Of course, this is just a single story and of no statistical import. Perhaps it is illustrative, 'tho, of the more recent spike in cases among the younger crowd.

 

Don't know about you guys, but I know I have a tendency to forget it's out there, as in "for real" out there. I'm always heading out in the car, forgetting the mask and having to loop back to the house in a cranky frame of mind.

 

Cases popping up among people we know has a tendency to make this old ostrich pull his head out (as it were.) :)

 

nat

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Don't know about you guys, but I know I have a tendency to forget it's out there, as in "for real" out there.

 

Well, if the epidemiologists are correct (who knows?) and only about 5% of the country has been infected so far, it will become a lot more real, for a lot more people.

 

Can't get that 27-year-old dancer out of my mind. Anomaly or precursor? I guess we'll find out.

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Here's a very enlightening article from today's LA Times about testing and the relationship to new reported cases:

 

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-22/alarmed-by-spiking-coronavirus-numbers-heres-why-officials-insist-they-arent-worried

 

This is saying it is correct that the new cases are totally a result of more testing. It's the hospitalizations and deaths that really matter and they're flat at least in LA. I've been saying exactly that for three months now. These kinds of stats depends on each locality around the country, some have more accurate and complete stats than others. Notes says Florida sucks in that department and I certainly can't comment on that, I don't live there.

 

Whatever it is, this article seems very credible and California at least is still doing fairly good.

 

A comment about the young people spiking with cases. That has nothing to do with them somehow suddenly being more prone to catching it. The reason is they're the ones who said "LETS PARTY!! from Memorial Day to now so of course the majority of new cases are in that age group. Nobody has said it's only older people who are more at risk of catching it, only more at risk of having more severe complications including dying. I think everybody of all age groups has a pretty equal risk of catching it but it's the young people who are being more reckless. And, I do not believe only 5% of the population has caught it and I have my reasons for believing this. I've said that for months too and I'll be proven right. I don't know the number but that's simply too low. If I had to guess I'll say it's more like 10-15%.

 

You guys are being too harsh on the CEO's of major corporations. You need to watch the financial news shows especially you Notes. Oh, right you haven't had a TV in years. Well, just reading a few articles online won't cut it. Every day I see interviews with them and they are doing a whole lot including the big banks. They are already letting current payments go and tacking them onto the back end of the loans. Of course I can't say ALL of them but there is a lot of that happening. Also, a lot of that is done by smaller local banks not the BOFA's of the world. Later this week the big banks have to pass the federal "stress test" that goes into their loan balances, credit balances, cash reserves and a whole bunch of very arcane financial tests. If they fail these tests it can be very bad for them but of course people who don't understand that just see a news report saying this bank or that bank has 30 billion in cash and think "why can't they use that money to help all the people?" First, it's mostly not their money to use, it's depositors, meaning all of us here. It's all about federal banking regulations, they have to have that much in cash or they can be severely cut back.

 

This is a very complicated situation.

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
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They are already letting current payments go and tacking them onto the back end of the loans.

 

There's really nothing new about that. It has been common for anyone in arrears, for example banks don't want to have to deal with a foreclosure and be in the house selling business. They are not forgiving anything, just postponing it. Not that there's anything wrong with that, any relief is welcome, but they're not sacrificing anything except what money they may lose through inflation between the time they wanted to collect the money, and the time they actually collect it.

 

I truly appreciate your positive attitude, and refreshing lack of cynicism, but...

 

Later this week the big banks have to pass the federal "stress test" that goes into their loan balances, credit balances, cash reserves and a whole bunch of very arcane financial tests. If they fail these tests it can be very bad for them but of course people who don't understand that just see a news report saying this bank or that bank has 30 billion in cash and think "why can't they use that money to help all the people?" First, it's mostly not their money to use, it's depositors, meaning all of us here.

 

That's half true. You're right that they have OUR money, but it's THEIRS to use as they fit, including investing in risky derivatives in an attempt to maximize profits (paper or tangible), distribute dividends, and do share repurchases. Not that you'll see any of those profits, unless you have a lot of stock in the banks.

 

What if I said "Hey Bob, thanks for depositing $40,000 in my bank! I'm going to invest it in my band, various stimulants, and a tour, because my bitchin' band is going to make a fortune, fer sure!! And when I do, I'll pay you back you $40,000! And the tour's going to be sooo successful, I'll have another $40,000 to give to my shareholders! And you'll get 1.2% interest on your $40,000!

 

If you're cool with that, then sure, no problem with the banks. JP Morgan Chase has $47 TRILLION exposure to derivatives, Goldman Sachs $42 trillion exposure, CitiBank $41 trillion, etc. etc. After 2008 when some practices were more tightly regulated, banks moved into other areas that weren't, like debt markets, and the jury is out about whether that was a smart move. Banks are also not immune to other problems, like interest rate risk. It's true that Tier 1 leverage ratios are better than they were in 2008, but that crisis was precipitated by just the housing industry, not the ever-more-likely scenario of a long-term, global collapse.

 

Oh, and thanks for the $40 grand! I promise I'll spend it real smart like. You'll get it all back. Really. I promise!

 

(BTW the current stress test's worst case for unemployment is 10%. Hello? Current estimates range from a minimum of 14% to considerably more. Oh, and the Fed will be applying the stress test that was devised PRIOR to the pandemic. The Fed has made some "sensitivity adjustments" to determine if banks can use excess capital for dividend and share repurchases, and the banks were unhappy that the tests were changed at all to to reflect changes wrought by the pandemic.)

 

You need to watch the financial news shows

 

Maybe I'm being too harsh, but in my opinion, if they're part of a TV network, they have an agenda. You have to dig deep to find out, for example, exactly what a "stress test" involves.

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Yes Craig, streaming won't pay the bills which is why I'm not interested in buying the equipment to do that.

 

Bob, I don't think I'm being too harsh on the CEO's. Bezos, Gates, Buffett, Zuckerberg, Ellison, Bloomberg, Musk, and so many others could give up 90% of their wealth and it wouldn't change their lifestyles one bit. If they didn't look at their net worth, they wouldn't even notice the difference.

 

Yet so many of them are protecting themselves behind their wall of money while they are asking their employees to play COVID Roulette and risk death or permanent disability.

 

There was a time when the royalty rode out to battle with the soldiers and drew their swords to lead the charge. If the CEOs were doing that, I'd respect them. If not, I accuse them of asking us to die for the DOW and their personal fortunes.

 

Time and time again I've mentioned those surviving with permanent disability. Please read this SF Gate article about that

 

Do you think this is worth minimum wage as a grocery bagger, factory worker, farm worker, or meat plant worker? Do you think the CEO is gong to cry if a half dozen of his/her wage slaves die?

 

The oligarchs are asking us to die for the DOW by pulling the strings of the politicians that the Citizens United Legal Tacit Bribery Decision flooded their campaigns with billions of dollars and they want their pay back. So our puppet leaders on both sides of the aisle are encouraging us to go back to work, save their corporate wealth, and play COVID Roulette and risk death of permanent disability for the rest of our shortened lives.

 

Until, and not before the oligarchy gets out there to play COVID Roulette along with the people they are asking, they are acting like so many Banana Republic despots.

 

And yes Craig, many Americans don't even want to wear a mask to be civil to their neighbors. The USA is now quickly becoming a failed state and IMHO we have become a barbarian republic.

 

How difficult is it to put a piece of cloth in front of your face so that in case you are an asymptomatic carrier you don't kill the person you pass in the grocery store? Where is their sense of community? Brotherhood? Civility?

 

I have no tendency to forget it's out there. Being unemployed in Florida for at least 7 months does affect a person's day to day routine. And although I feel really bummed about not being able to gig, I feel really lucky to be in an industry that isn't allowed to go back to work yet. Very mixed emotions here.

 

Craig, that 27 year old dancer is like the local skin diver and the 40 year old who thought he was in perfect health and now needs dialysis. Different degrees of the same tragedy.

 

And no, it' has been proven in Florida that the record after record case count is definitely not due to more testing. It's government fraud. Of course if you read certain political media publications you are told the lie and you believe it. So after the lie was shown to be blatant, the Governor blamed it on Mexican Watermelon Pickers, and now on people going to bars.

 

Blame anything but your self and your lies that it'll be history by May or opening back up won't be bad, or I ignored it while I sold my stocks, or I opened the state up because the oligarchy that pulled my puppet strings wanted me to. What happened to "The buck stops here?" Or present politicians don't seem to have the balls for that.

 

I read in the paper this morning that the city power company is going to start shutting power for delinquent payers (even if they are still out of work). In the spirit of generosity they will allow they to finance the payments they missed for 12 months at an unpublished compound interest rate.

 

Certain mortgage companies are starting to threaten to foreclose. I know they run a business and need profits too and not knowing their situation, I don't know how desperately they need the money but that doesn't lessen the tragedy.

 

Thanks to Swift, Clooney, and the other high profile figures doing what they can. I live too close to the bone right now to do anything like that. In times of financial stability I gave, right now I have to save. My foremost responsibility is to my wife.

 

Since the Fairness Doctrine was nuked in the Reagan years, political propaganda has divided us into two warring factions. They have successfully divided us to weaken and exploit us. It's way past time for everyone to start moving to the middle in a spirit of compromise for the betterment of all.

 

Insights and incites by Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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Yes Craig, streaming won't pay the bills which is why I'm not interested in buying the equipment to do that.

Insights and incites by Notes

 

A Zoom Q2n-4K that costs less than $200 will give you excellent results for streaming. 4K refers to hi-def video that's at least as good as what you get with any smart phone. And the audio, recorded with 2 offset stereo condenser mics, is vastly superior to smart phone audio. The only thing you won't get, barring buying another camera, is multiple camera angles.

 

But like you, I am not into live feeds and streaming, either- I just use my unit for the occasional video that I can delete if it sucks (it was live when I recorded it..) However I would think your case would be different as there are undoubtedly alot of clients and fans that miss your music.

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A Zoom Q2n-4K that costs less than $200 will give you excellent results for streaming. 4K refers to hi-def video that's at least as good as what you get with any smart phone. And the audio, recorded with 2 offset stereo condenser mics, is vastly superior to smart phone audio. The only thing you won't get, barring buying another camera, is multiple camera angles.

 

But like you, I am not into live feeds and streaming, either- I just use my unit for the occasional video that I can delete if it sucks (it was live when I recorded it..)

 

The only live stream we tried really sucked since we just put my wife's MBP on a folding table out in front of us while we played to neighbors from the front porch. I didn't bother to check levels and we slammed it a bit hard even though I thought it was plenty far enough away.

We had a friend bring a fancy new camera to our last gig a couple weeks ago and he caught some great video I've only seen some snippets of so far. I'm not up to speed on modern photography gear but it captures a sort of 360 degree image you can pan around. The audio sounded quite satisfactory also but we need to get it all on a flash drive because it's too much to transfer online. It will be great stuff for us to post on our FB page for promo!

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