Jump to content


Please note: You can easily log in to MPN using your Facebook account!

OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?


Recommended Posts

One of the major vectors for virus transmission is exposure indoors. We know the majority of cases came from homes, nursing care facilities and hospitals.

 

My corona weather forecast:

I predict as we head into summer we see an increase of cases in hot weather states as more people stay inside to stay cool. States with cooler and temperate weather will probably see a decrease in the summer as more people enjoy the outdoor weather.

 

For those places with 4 seasons, like NYC, I wonder if the spring and autumn weather will help to decrease cases, while increases might be seen in the more brutal summer and winter months.

Ah, I've never liked living with Air Conditioning. I grew up in Florida before homes were closed up like tombs.

 

I have a white painted, insulating roof, and plenty of shade trees in the yard. It rarely gets over 80 indoors. I get birdsongs coming in the windows with the ocean breezes, and highly oxygenated, fresh air. The only time I turn on the AC is when guests come over, and since COVID, we have no guests.

 

They way I see it is that you can expose yourself, and it's playing COVID roulette. You could get mild symptoms, no symptoms, or end up in a hospital fighting death. The death may be a 5% chance as suggested (but not proven) or 20% (who really knows), permanent damage greater than that, (again who really knows) but you can't click Ctrl+Z or Undo if you end up in the hospital.

 

I read so many conflicting things from middle-of-the-road press and science articles, the one thing I'm sure of is nobody knows how many people have it, how many people who get it end up damaged or dead, and how this is going to end up.

 

Florida is having day after day of breaking records of new cases. And the state is fudging the figures to minimize the impact. People are dying. I don't want to take that chance.

 

Others do, and I guess it's all about our personal risk/benefit assessment.

 

Is a dinner out, haircut, or a night at a bar worth a chance at death or permanent damage to you?

 

The 15 ladies who went to the bar and all caught it aren't very sick - yet. And who knows, some people think their doing fine and weeks later, all of a sudden get a cytokine storm and end up on a ventilator.

 

I'm pretty comfortable at home, have zero debt, social security, and a wife who I could spend 24/7 with and it still isn't enough. That puts me in a good position to hunker down and be safe.

 

I do miss gigging though. It's my bliss. I miss the money, but most of all the pleasure of playing music to an appreciative crowd that seems like my extended family.

 

When the time comes, gigs will be back.

 

I'll patiently wait. How about you?

 

Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

Link to comment
Share on other sites



  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Yeah, I can wait somewhat patiently. As a 60-something, I've already got my stay-at-home stuff to do, the music studio, the books, the stereo, the yard, cooking, fixing the place up, the home gym setup, the bike, a great marriage, etc. etc. I can do this for a long time.

 

But I think a lot about the kids in high developmental stages, their lives being so disrupted at such critical times of life. There's a hard core of kids that just won't do distance learning. There's kids scared out of their wits while their grandparents suffer and die alone, in isolation. For the time being - no school bands, no school sports, no private piano lessons, no hanging out just being a kid with other kids, no kissing behind the stadium, no trips to the movies or Disneyland or rock concerts or parties at friend's houses, no field trips to the museum or library or zoo or state capitol or classical concert, on and on and on. It's a cultural gutting, being filled with lots of TV and video games and fear of everything outside the house. An entire generation is going to be majorly changed by all this emotionally, socially, sexually, economically, psychologically.

 

Sure, it's worse in war, of course. Cold comfort the old "but it could be worse", right? And consider there's no big cause to get all rah-rah about - no moral high ground to defend except trying not to get sick or make other people sick. The average person can't be a hero here, just a survivor.

 

And an altered "normality" to return to later. Oh, we'll survive, sure. But the cost will be counted for decades and decades to come. Hopefully our nation will get behind some serious preparedness for pandemics. That would help redeem the losses to a significant extent.

 

I think us oldies have it comparatively easy if you manage to not get infected, which is not that hard to do.

 

nat

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, I can wait somewhat patiently. As a 60-something, I've already got my stay-at-home stuff to do, the music studio, the books, the stereo, the yard, cooking, fixing the place up, the home gym setup, the bike, a great marriage, etc. etc. I can do this for a long time.

 

But I think a lot about the kids in high developmental stages, their lives being so disrupted at such critical times of life. There's a hard core of kids that just won't do distance learning. There's kids scared out of their wits while their grandparents suffer and die alone, in isolation. For the time being - no school bands, no school sports, no private piano lessons, no hanging out just being a kid with other kids, no kissing behind the stadium, no trips to the movies or Disneyland or rock concerts or parties at friend's houses, no field trips to the museum or library or zoo or state capitol or classical concert, on and on and on. It's a cultural gutting, being filled with lots of TV and video games and fear of everything outside the house. An entire generation is going to be majorly changed by all this emotionally, socially, sexually, economically, psychologically.

 

Sure, it's worse in war, of course. Cold comfort the old "but it could be worse", right? And consider there's no big cause to get all rah-rah about - no moral high ground to defend except trying not to get sick or make other people sick. The average person can't be a hero here, just a survivor.

 

And an altered "normality" to return to later. Oh, we'll survive, sure. But the cost will be counted for decades and decades to come. Hopefully our nation will get behind some serious preparedness for pandemics. That would help redeem the losses to a significant extent.

 

I think us oldies have it comparatively easy if you manage to not get infected, which is not that hard to do.

 

nat

 

Well put. I remember how pivotal my first year of university was, and totally feel for those kids experience what they are at the moment...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I get birdsongs coming in the windows with the ocean breezes, and highly oxygenated, fresh air. The only time I turn on the AC is when guests come over ...

Here's on odd data point, that's been turning windmills in my head:

 

In February 2020, I visited friends on Boracay Island in the Philippines. It's a party/leisure island, sometimes called the Ibiza of Asia. The island hosts thousands of tourists from all over the world. It is a narrow, sun-drenched island so you're always breathing in a clean ocean breeze. Almost all activities are outdoors, and almost all restaurants are setup to enjoy the outdoors.

 

- It was corona free until yesterday (June 17) when a doctor who came from Manila was diagnosed. The larger province (Aklan) has reported only 3 cases (including the doctor). All cases were travelers who brought the virus from outside. Other than that basically corona free this while time.

 

Here's the kicker - all through Oct, Nov, Dec 2019 ... up until February 2020, it was receiving daily plane loads of Chinese tourists direct from Wuhan. To be exact, it had 6 daily flights direct from Wuhan - during the height of the China outbreak?!?

 

Make you wonder doesn't it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ah, I've never liked living with Air Conditioning. I grew up in Florida before homes were closed up like tombs.

 

Just to show SSS has an influence...after reading your comments on air conditioning, my girlfriend and I decided to try an experiment - no air conditioning.

 

It still hasn't been turned on :) And trust me, Tennessee gets hot in the summer!

 

What we found is that we've become acclimated. After coming in from swimming, it's great not be hit by a blast of cold air. We open up the windows and turn on the fans at night, then close everything up in the morning to trap the cold air.

 

I have a fan in my studio that cools the computer, not me :)

 

Admittedly OT, and I don't know if we'll make it through mid-July...but so far, we're digging it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm so tired of the "young people aren't affected as much" thing. When I see that a healthy woman in her 20s needed a double lung transplant after she fought off the infection because her lungs were destroyed, I don't think anyone can say for certain that this damned thing is easier on young people. Even if statistically it is, I think it can be way too devastating to take that risk.

Of course that's a very rare exception, just like a healthy 21-year old personal trainer dying from the flu:

 

https://time.com/5099042/influenza-deaths-flu/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

C'mon Joe, nothing is 100%. The reciprocal of that is saying old people really are not affected that much because a few 85-100 year olds survived or saying smoke all you want because look at all these old folks like Groucho who lived to ripe old ages by smoking their whole lives.

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Very true. I finally had my three month late periodontal dental appointment the other day. I asked her what she thought of all of this and she was basically pissed. She said shutting down all the dentists in CA was a joke. They know how to control this in their offices and wasn't worried in the least.

 

Bob

 

My wife is very much of the same opinion, she's recently returned to the clinic for in person appointments where she's a psychiatrist specializing in geriatric patients. When she goes in she must wear a mask as well as a face shield and be temp screened, patients wear a mask and are temp screened. She tells me the first thing they ask when they get in her office is if they can remove the mask and they conduct the appointment as normal human beings.

 

I finally got in to have a chipped tooth repaired myself recently. They had me text when I arrived and then notified me when it was time to come in. I needed a mask and they temp screened me. When I got to the chair though it was just like old times.

 

At the huge avionics/aerospace company where I work there must be at least 2000 people a day in and out of these buildings. This whole time they've had three confirmed cases yet the requirement here since some time in May is that everyone wears a face covering.

 

It's like we're all living in some kind of weird Twilight Zone episode where no one wants to admit how ridiculous this whole thing is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's like we're all living in some kind of weird Twilight Zone episode where no one wants to admit how ridiculous this whole thing is.

 

That's an apt description for me as well. Multiply X 10 if you're newly trying to adapt to living alone, after years of having a family member with you. Weird times.

 

Last night 3 friends came over to rehearse in my garage for a gig, it was so great to hear music coming out of there and to be able to see them (mental health is a thing, too). One of them, my best friend and neighbor, has a nice kit set up in there, another one has a PA. Acoustics aren't bad at all. So I am plotting to use my cool (or more accurately, very HOT) garage as bait to lure other musicians to rehearse. Devious, I know.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

 

It's like we're all living in some kind of weird Twilight Zone episode where no one wants to admit how ridiculous this whole thing is.

 

I have 2 acquaintances that have died from Covid 19. It was no joke.

 

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/health/2020/05/05/coronavirus-infects-thousands-iowa-meatpacking-plant-workers-covid-19-waterloo-perry/5170796002/

 

"Coronavirus infects more than 1,600 workers at four Iowa meatpacking plants"

 

Humans can learn to adapt , esp if its about 'inconvenience or ' change' if they have to.

 

Our grandparents and great grand parents adapted frequently due to the 1918 pandemic and 2 world wars.

We could learn from that.

 

Masks have proven to be effective deterrent to Covid.

Why fit in, when you were born to stand out ?

My Soundcloud with many originals:

[70's Songwriter]

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can understand feeling that the reaction is overblown. Here in Travis County, the counted cases as of today are 4,771 and the total deaths 106. This includes Austin, definitely a young people Mecca. The 2019 census counted 1,274,000 souls. So the deaths as a % of the population comes to 0.008%. Deaths as a percentage of known cases, 0.374%.

 

January 1 thru April 15, 2020 traffic deaths, 836.

 

It's not at all like this in many other harder-hit areas. So we have this "one size fits all" response to situations that are not at all equivalent. Seems unfair or stupid at times, right?

 

So why am I still totally onboard with all the precautions, the masks, the social distancing, etc.?

 

1 - I firmly believe the deaths would be a whole lot higher had the precautions not been taken.

2 - It ain't over 'till it's over. Do you drop your guard in a boxing match because the guy didn't land a good punch in the first round?

3 - since the U.S. has a piss-poor infrastructure with regard to pandemic response, the precautions we are taking is the best we can come up with in the context of public resistance and political lack of will.

4 - the kicker with foregoing precautions in low-incidence areas is one word - travel. Travel is the reason it's here in the first place.

 

Yeah, it feels stupid sometimes being so careful when, in my particular time and place, the chances of getting sick and/or dying are so low. But the mask cost me $2 and the distancing I kind of like except for close friends and family. So what's the harm? The mask doesn't make me bleed out of my eyes or anything. And peer pressure is for 12 year-olds.

 

It takes mass cooperation to make the precautions work. So I'm just one worker ant whose personal actions are probably negligible. But the overall cooperation is what keeps the big nest alive.

 

I recommend watching the Frontline episode on the South Korean response to the pandemic. Makes us all look like fools, really. Maybe we'll learn to be as smart and prepared. Maybe not.

 

nat

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's like we're all living in some kind of weird Twilight Zone episode where no one wants to admit how ridiculous this whole thing is.

 

I think it's more like living in some kind of weird Twilight Zone episode where the citizens can choose their news based on what they want to hear. :)

 

Anyone who lived through what happened in Italy (34,514 dead), New York (24,550), New Jersey (12,625), or Massachusetts (7,624) will tell you it was no joke. So will the medical people in those areas. I know some of those people, they have been traumatized from dealing with suffering and death beyond anything they had experienced before in their line of work. And these are people who see suffering and death every day.

 

On the other hand, anyone in Wyoming (18 dead), Montana (19 dead), Idaho (87 dead), or West Virginia (88 dead) could easily think it's a joke. People extrapolate what's happening with them to the world at large.

 

The wide variation in problems from state-to-state would give credence to the "let the states figure it out" policy. BUT...I think a "let the states figure it out based on a national strategy to contain it where it's bad, and keep it from spreading to states that are less affected," would make more sense. It would be a real shame if, say, Florida or Arizona could have pretty much ended COVID-19 in their states if only they'd waited one more month before opening up.

 

At the huge avionics/aerospace company where I work there must be at least 2000 people a day in and out of these buildings. This whole time they've had three confirmed cases yet the requirement here since some time in May is that everyone wears a face covering.

 

But is that due to COVID-19, or lawyers and insurance companies? If all of a sudden you had a meatpacking-type situation where hundreds of people were testing positive and getting sick, how many lawyers - seeing a huge company with deep pockets - would turn into ambulance-chasing attack dogs?

 

I'm still thinking there is no good solution, only less bad ones.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

It takes mass cooperation to make the precautions work.

 

nat

 

Therein lies the problem because due to my, and others I trust, observations over these many months I refuse to accept that the majority of people can't get on with their lives. Note that it doesn't bother me in the least that others remain frightened or concerned but now that it affects my life even more I'm troubled and upset. I can't force myself to just go along with what makes no sense to me, I'm not built that way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I refuse to accept that the majority of people can't get on with their lives.

It all depends on where they live, and how they act. If getting on with your life means going out in the world and doing errands, sure. If it means jamming into a sports bar with 100 people in a non-ventilated space and doing karaoke in a state where new cases are increasing by 50% in the past week (Florida) or deaths by 96% in the past week (Georgia)...maybe not so much.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And of course, if initially there had been testing, admitting the potential of the problem instead of minimizing it, and tracking/isolation of those who had the disease to prevent spreading it, we wouldn't be having this discussion, and you would be able to get on with your life. This is why so many people consider how the US handled the coronavirus as an epic fail.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

C'mon Joe, nothing is 100%. The reciprocal of that is saying old people really are not affected that much because a few 85-100 year olds survived or saying smoke all you want because look at all these old folks like Groucho who lived to ripe old ages by smoking their whole lives.

 

Bob

My point is that I don't believe for a second that we know enough about this disease to say to any age group that they don't really need to worry about how badly it might affect them. We recommend flu shots for people six years and older. If we had a vaccine for SARSâCoVâ2 we would be recommending it for the same people or whoever it was determined to be safe for. Why risk getting it?

"I'm so crazy, I don't know this is impossible! Hoo hoo!" - Daffy Duck

 

"The good news is that once you start piano you never have to worry about getting laid again. More time to practice!" - MOI

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everything we do in life involves some level of risk mitigation....not elimination, because that's impossible. We choose to take a shower when you could slip in the tub. We choose to step outside even though you could get struck by lightning, shot, or all kinds of other things. We choose to drive even though car accidents are a common cause of death. We eat tasty bacon despite its risk to our health.

 

Risk MITIGATION. When you drive you make choices - maybe you pick a car with a good rating in crash tests, air bags, you drive safely. I'm paying attention to this right now - I signed up for a discount at Progressive where you install an app on your phone and it tracks your driving. Your rate can go up or down depending on the results. It gives you tips about safe driving and how to improve your score. One of them was not driving late at night, especially on weekends....not because of your driving, but because you're more likely to encounter drunk drivers. I didn't have to install the app and don't have to follow the guidelines. On the other hand, I could choose not to drive at all if I want to try to avoid all risk. Government Role? They have safety inspections, post speed limits, have traffic laws, and require wearing seatbelts. Reasonable, I think. They aren't imposing curfews or anything like that.

 

We all have choices to make in terms of our risk mitigation when dealing with this, and nobody should be shamed for their decisions, whatever they are. There is SOME role of government to issue loose guideline, IMO tighter on the local level based on the conditions on the ground, so to speak. I think we can go back to work (well, if I can find a replacement for the job I lost because of this) safely by just practicing common sense. Most of the folks on hear seem to have that common sense, and most of the people I've encountered publicly as of late are also showing common sense and mutual respect. But that's here - it seems some of you are seeing something different in your corners of the world.

Dan

 

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ah, I've never liked living with Air Conditioning. I grew up in Florida before homes were closed up like tombs.

 

Just to show SSS has an influence...after reading your comments on air conditioning, my girlfriend and I decided to try an experiment - no air conditioning.

 

It still hasn't been turned on :) And trust me, Tennessee gets hot in the summer!

 

What we found is that we've become acclimated. After coming in from swimming, it's great not be hit by a blast of cold air. We open up the windows and turn on the fans at night, then close everything up in the morning to trap the cold air.

 

I have a fan in my studio that cools the computer, not me :)

 

Admittedly OT, and I don't know if we'll make it through mid-July...but so far, we're digging it.

 

Many years ago I took a job working as a Cable TV Field Engineer. This involved a lot of working outdoors and it gets hot in Florida too.

 

The guys who lived in AC were acclimated to 68-75 degrees and when it came to doing hard work outside, they just melted. I was able to carry on with energy.

 

I think that rather defeats the use of AC.

 

I think of it this way. "Up north" when September comes around and it gets 60 degrees people are cold and put on winter coats, because they have been acclimated to the heat.

 

Then after the cold winter, 60 degrees comes along and they are outdoors in shorts and T shirts.

 

If you live in 70 degrees and it's 85 out, it seems really, really hot. If you live in 80 degrees 85 is pleasant.

 

Plus Air Conditioners are not only an expense for the homeowner, but they contribute to global warming. They are the biggest household use of electricity and they also pump out hot air creating hot islands in cities. I read that the total energy use of Air Conditioners in the US is greater than the total industrial use of energy.

 

The old fashioned way of having a white roof and plenty of shade trees seems to me a better way for the earth, and a better way for me. Plus my indoor air is fresher and healthier.

 

I've also read that dry air makes your respiratory system both more hospitable to COVID and less able to defend you.

 

Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And of course, if initially there had been testing, admitting the potential of the problem instead of minimizing it, and tracking/isolation of those who had the disease to prevent spreading it, we wouldn't be having this discussion, and you would be able to get on with your life. This is why so many people consider how the US handled the coronavirus as an epic fail.

 

Absolutely 1000%.

 

And not just with regard to the illness, but also to keeping economies going and people financially afloat while the period of strict and effective measures were in place.

 

nat

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The guys who lived in AC were acclimated to 68-75 degrees and when it came to doing hard work outside, they just melted. I was able to carry on with energy.

I moved to Texas from "the north" (grew up on Long Island, went to school in Maryland, worked in Michigan) and early on I noticed that while many of us transplants liked that it was warmer here, some native Texans were pretty addicted to A/C. They wouldn't just run it but would crank it down to low 70s or high 60s. That would drive me crazy. At one job, I had to keep a space heater in my office. I hated going to some stores in the summer because I'd be comfortable, then walk inside and it would be freezing. Getting stuck inside at a meeting or conference was torture, I'd sweat because I was clenching to try to stay warm. I'd love breaks to go outside and "recharge," stretch out and warm up my core. I still often carry a sweatshirt or hoodie to places where I'm going to be for a while like rehearsals.

"I'm so crazy, I don't know this is impossible! Hoo hoo!" - Daffy Duck

 

"The good news is that once you start piano you never have to worry about getting laid again. More time to practice!" - MOI

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At the huge avionics/aerospace company where I work there must be at least 2000 people a day in and out of these buildings. This whole time they've had three confirmed cases yet the requirement here since some time in May is that everyone wears a face covering.

 

But is that due to COVID-19, or lawyers and insurance companies? If all of a sudden you had a meatpacking-type situation where hundreds of people were testing positive and getting sick, how many lawyers - seeing a huge company with deep pockets - would turn into ambulance-chasing attack dogs?

 

I'm still thinking there is no good solution, only less bad ones.

 

I"m certain that is correct, the state legislature have quickly passed a law whereby people won"t be able to sue random businesses claiming they picked up the 'rona at your restaurant or shop.

 

The wife and I are currently with some friends who have a home on the Lake of the Ozarks where we"ll be spending the weekend. Simple precautions, or what I like to call normal common sense behavior, will keep us healthy just as it has all along as we go out and mingle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, many people in warm climates overboard with AC.

 

When I was a child in South Florida, AC units in houses were rare. Almost everybody had white roofs and houses were built with cross ventilation in mind. Those who had AC used what we now call window units that were built into the wall. They were noisy.

 

Then came central AC and along with that came a home construction boom. Few homes have white roofs anymore because the heat trapped by dark roofs can be battled by cranking up the AC and burning even more carbon based fuel thus adding more hot air into the environment. The new people traded shade trees for green lawns, another environmental catastrophe. Instead of living with the environment, they came here and want to change it.

 

The town I grew up in had fewer than 2,000 people, now it has about 2,000,000. People move here, live in their Air Conditioned homes and complain about how hot it is. I could never figure that one out. There are climates in the US from tropical to permafrost, why intentionally move somewhere that has a climate you hate?

 

I'd like to see a ban on both home air conditioning and lawns, but of course I'm in the minority with that opinion and I don't expect it will ever happen in my lifetime. If you believe the majority of climate scientists by the time the robber barons admit there is a serious problem, we will have passed the point of no return anyway.

 

I'm glad I grew up when I did. I got to see the USA when it was at it's peak, the greatest country in the world, when even the German Chancellor drove around in a Detroit made Cadillac. If you had casual sex with someone the worst STD you could catch was completely curable in a week with a couple of injections of penicillin. The US had a thriving middle class. Landfills were called dumps and they didn't make mountains. The water was clean and the air clear except for a few huge cities.

 

My father used to breed tropical fish and sell them to pet stores. One thing you learn when you have 50 or so aquariums is that everything goes along just fine and is manageable until there are too many fish in the tank. When the population crowds two things happen (1) the fish get aggressive and violent as they compete for limited room and resources and (2) diseases that are very hard to stop run rampant and can wipe out an entire population.

 

Life lives on life. Everything is a food source for something else. We are not the top of the food chain but a member of the food cycle. We don't have to worry too much about lions and crocodiles, they don't take enough of us to limit the population. What feeds on us are the tiny things. Mosquitoes, sand flies, bacteria, and viruses.

 

When the tank is not overcrowded, the little feeders don't wipe out the big food. When the tank has too many fish, the little feeders wreak havoc in the aquarium

 

So the way I see it is this. World capitalism demands perpetual growth to continue to prosper, and we who depend on that system buy into it. But we have passed the limit. This perpetual population growth has hit the tipping point to where there are too many people in our ecosystem (tank) and we have become the biggest food source for the tiny things on the planet. Those tiny things will evolve to exploit this food source, and COVID seems to be one of those who have successfully adapted to feed on us. The fact that there are too many of us is evident by the amount of pollution fouling our aquarium Earth just as too many fish foul their tank and upset the equilibrium.

 

Of course this is all non-scientific opinion based on my observations and experience, and I could be totally wrong about it, so think about it, but don't take it as gospel truth.

 

Insights, incites and musings by Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We are finally getting more useful descriptions of what we have. This is about Covid-19 variants.

 

Local Chicago news picked up a story from Northwestern University because it noted a variant that appeared to be centered in Chicago.

 

Cautions:

this is a small study with analysis based on the analysis of 88 subjects.

the source is a research preprint (before a peer review)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.19.20107144v1

 

...we examined the genome sequences of 88 SARS-CoV-2 viruses from COVID-19 patients in Chicago, USA and identified three distinct phylogenetic clades. Clade 1 was most closely related to clades centered in New York, and showed evidence of rapid expansion across the USA, while Clade 3 was most closely related to those in Washington. Clade 2 was localized primarily to the Chicago area with limited evidence of expansion elsewhere. Average viral loads in the airways of patients infected with the rapidly spreading Clade 1 viruses were significantly higher than those of the poorly spreading Clade 2. These results show that multiple variants of SARS-CoV-2 are circulating in the USA that differ in their relative airway viral loads and potential for expansion.

 

I think the most significant feature of the research is the higher "Average viral loads in the airways" associated with Clade 1.

 

April 9 we had this story that pointed to the variant from Italy as the source of infections in New York. At the time Dr. Fauci acknowledged that this was "probably correct."

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/york-coronavirus-outbreak-originated-europe-study-finds/story?id=70062642

 

The Beeb has a story on waste water samples that present a timeline:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53106444

 

Italian scientists say sewage water from two cities contained coronavirus traces in December, long before the country's first confirmed cases.

 

The National Institute of Health (ISS) said water from Milan and Turin showed genetic virus traces on 18 December.

 

It adds to evidence from other countries that the virus may have been circulating much earlier than thought.

 

Chinese officials confirmed the first cases at the end of December. Italy's first case was in mid-February. In May French scientists said tests on samples showed a patient treated for suspected pneumonia near Paris on 27 December actually had the coronavirus. Meanwhile in Spain a study found virus traces in waste water collected in mid-January in Barcelona, some 40 days before the first local case was discovered. In their study, ISS scientists examined 40 sewage samples collected from wastewater treatment plants in northern Italy between last October and February.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

But as the article says: "The rate of hospitalization for people who test positive for COVID-19 in their 20s is under 4%, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention...The fatality rate for people in their 20s and 30s without underlying health conditions is about 0.1%."

 

So why should they care? Remember the hashtag in the early days: #boomerremover. Unless doctors find out that there's some kind of permanent damage being caused to younger positives, they're not going to care. So what if Dad dies? He was old anyway. Besides, more dead old people, the longer social security stays solvent. Win-win!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...