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OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?


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No way Joe, we're having way too much fun. And I agree there is better balanced information right here than I get from a lot of the news.

 

As far as other cataclysms that have happened in the past my favorite is monster 1,000 foot waves that have hit the Pacific Basin from Mt. Everest sized landslides caused by various volcano's in Hawaii To anybody living anywhere on the West Coast of the US, just look at an elevation map. Then imagine what a wave that size would do and where it would end up. Interesting read:

 

https://www.livescience.com/25293-hawaii-giant-tsunami-landslides.html

 

As to the virus I think if the spikes in case get bad enough some will self isolate again and some will probably refuse to go to work. Others will ignore it and keep on keeping on. That's basically what a free society is all about, we'll collectively monitor the situation and muddle our way through while balancing the risks against everything else. This is why all the financial guru types I follow are saying the same thing. Things are gradually getting better and that will continue but the recovery will not be quick like the Administration hopes. Still way too much uncertainty for that and it all hinges on the same two things we've been talking about for months. A vaccine and/or good treatments.

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
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So my wife got tested on Wednesday and she learned her result was negative earlier today, by association it's safe to assume I don't have it either. Although no one has a clue what's right it's with absolute certainty that I've gone out of my way to do it all wrong. Of course that's just the test to determine if one currently has it and I'm not sure when we might be able to get the test for whether she or I had already had it.
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No way Joe, we're having way too much fun. And I agree there is better balanced information right here than I get from a lot of the news.

 

I hope you read the link. Typing is fine. No excessive ejections with that. ;)

 

As to the virus I think if the spikes in case get bad enough some will self isolate again and some will probably refuse to go to work. Others will ignore it and keep on keeping on. That's basically what a free society is all about, we'll collectively monitor the situation and muddle our way through while balancing the risks against everything else. This is why all the financial guru types I follow are saying the same thing. Things are gradually getting better and that will continue but the recovery will not be quick like the Administration hopes. Still way too much uncertainty for that and it all hinges on the same two things we've been talking about for months. A vaccine and/or good treatments.
I have a theory about the openings and about where things are going up and not going up. It's not the heat. Plenty of hot places in the U. S. and Latin America are climbing. It seems like the northeast isn't going up. They were hit pretty hard early. Maybe people up there are being more cautious, wearing masks, keeping distance, etc. because they saw how bad it can be both from how bad the disease can be and how seemingly randomly it can spread. In other parts of the country like around here in Texas, we weren't hit hard, the curve was flattened, and then a lot of people complained, pushed to open things up, and protested about wearing masks. So my guess is and it's only a guess, I have zero data except what I just wrote, that people in Texas and places like this that weren't hit hard aren't being as cautious by wearing masks, keeping distance, not going out except when they have to, etc.

 

Our mayor and county judge (administrator) are asking people to stay at home as much as possible, wear masks when going out, but they can't make them nor can they close businesses because the governor won't let them. He claims to be monitoring the situation but despite setting record numbers in Texas including in the Houston and Dallas areas, he hasn't reversed any openings he allowed yet, and I doubt he will.

 

I spoke to a doctor this week who told me when this started back in March one patient caught it and since then no patients did. This week, three of their patients tested positive, possibly a fourth but they were waiting on results. One of them had a stroke, and no other reason to have a stroke, but it turned out it was because of COVID-19. Meanwhile, this doc and the other physicians in their office have done hundreds of antibody tests and not a single positive result. In this doc's words, "it's gonna be a shitshow."

 

I would think German would be the worst...

:laugh::roll:

Heh, good point, actually.

"I'm so crazy, I don't know this is impossible! Hoo hoo!" - Daffy Duck

 

"The good news is that once you start piano you never have to worry about getting laid again. More time to practice!" - MOI

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Blue Zones Interview

 

An interesting interview with one of the leading epidemiologists in the country. I think Joe Rogan interviewed this guy too.

 

It doesn't explain where he's coming up with 5%?

 

"Right now, about 5% of the US population has been infected; although it"s higher in places like New York City and some urban areas, across the world it"s about 5%.". "When you think about only 5% of this country"s been infected to date, and you understand the pain, the suffering, the death, and economic disruption that"s occurred with just 5%, then you can imagine what it"s going to take for us to get to 60 or 70%.". "Well, I think you can do your own math in the sense that if 5% of the population has been infected to date and we have 100,000 deaths, it"s a 12-fold increase to get to 60 or 70%.". "So it would not be unreasonable to say based on what I just shared with you with 100,000 deaths for 5% of the population infected"

 

Any data on how he arrived at that number or did I miss it?

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Osterholm is the real deal and to answer your question about the 5% I think it's fair to say he is the source. There's a guy on the PG Music forum who works in the same field and knows him, he posted the Joe Rogan interview with him in early March I think. Unfortunately similar to the KC forum here, that thread finally got nuked over politics. Osterholm gives lectures and conducts seminars at universities and hospitals all over the world. That vid is about an hour and a half long so they really get into it. At one point Joe went away from the virus and asked him about using probiotics because of his close connection to the UFC. He kept baiting him and baiting him but Osterholm didn't bite. All he said is basically those things are useless bs in a nice way of course and tried to steer the conversation away but Joe kept pushing it probably because he's a spokesman for one of those companies or something. He nailed the prediction of what would and has happened and is one of the few who I would believe concerning further predictions and numbers going forward. In my opinion he should have been the voice of the Administration or at least be one of the primary interviewees on the news shows. I found the Rogan interview from March 10:

 

For some reason this vid is not embedding correctly but it plays fine on YT itself.

 

I was about to post this and decided to find a more recent video interview and I found this from a month ago:

 

[video:youtube]

 

Man, this is not good. Here's a guy who's one of the foremost experts in the world in infectious diseases and he's saying one of his biggest worries is cases start to go down and not because anything we've done? In other words that's a big head fake and it means COVID 19 is following the influenza model meaning there will be a huge spike in the fall. Then he goes on with more good news.

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
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For some reason this vid is not embedding correctly but it plays fine on YT itself.

 

Delete the &t=4524s off the end and it will embed. That's a server side variable that tells it to start the video at a certain time. Those variables can't be read but the forum software so anytime there's a "&" at the end, delete that part of it.

Dan

 

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.

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Florida is having day after day of record cases. Over 2000 per day. This doesn't look good.

 

The third week of reopening started the spike, which is what some scientists predicted due to the average incubation period,

 

The government is even fudging the figures. A scientist who refused to lie to the public got fired. She started her own "dashboard" using freedom of information act but the gov't is fudging that info now.

 

Florida relies on tourist dollars, so I can see the incentive. My job also relies on tourist dollars. But should the people we elect to office be able to lie to us? I suppose that is as old as government but it's not the way I think it should be.

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

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The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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Well, Florida has a 21 million population. LA County has 10 and we've been seeing about 1,000 new cases a day for quite a while now so it's comparable. One difference could be the increase in cases has been fairly flat here. 2000 daily cases against a 21 million population it's a pretty small number imho. In LA anyway, 1,000 new cases a day is not enough to make a dent in our healthcare system. Also fwiw, I just had a telephone consult with my VA doctor about some recent lab work I had done. Everything is normal and I asked him again about cases at the big West LA VA hospital and again he said just a few. I find that remarkable considering a large majority of people I see there are mostly my age meaning Vietnam era vets plus there are several large assisted living facilities within a few miles of it. Yes, I know Osterholm says this type of observation really means nothing in the long term prognosis of how this virus will go. It's hard to know what to think but I certainly feel people our age still need to be careful regardless of what we see others doing.

 

Then there's this from Minneapolis/St. Paul:

 

https://www.twincities.com/2020/06/12/mn-coronavirus-george-floyd-early-test-results-show-few-protesters/

 

Just another virus head fake? We actually should be concerned? I dunno.

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
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I don't think we can go off of "reported cases" due to such differences in testing over time and differences state to state. All along, deaths and hospitalizations tell the story. Look at that trend. After all if all the cases are minor or asymptomatic, then who cares anyway, as long as we aren't getting hospitalizations and/or deaths?

Dan

 

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.

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I read reports from a few fairly believable science ezines that say if your blood type is A you are most likely to be hospitalized and if your blood type is O you are least likely - all other factors being equal.

 

Being overweight seems to come up again and again as being a high risk factor for hospitalization as does other unhealthy conditions like hypertension, diabetes, heart problems, and so on.

 

And of course old age is another factor for hospitalization, but it seems not for getting the disease in the first place.

 

There are still a lot of unknowns out there, and science is collecting clues, discarding red herrings, and improving their understanding for prevention and hopefully either vaccine or cure.

 

Since I'm unemployed until at least late October, and that means I need to be frugal with my savings money, I'm staying at home for the most part anyway.

 

Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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as long as we aren't getting hospitalizations and/or deaths?

 

That's particularly good since many hospitals are facing bankruptcy and up to 50% of staff have been furloughed while remaining staff is forced to take pay cuts but hey, we're really nipping this thing in the bud!

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One of the major vectors for virus transmission is exposure indoors. We know the majority of cases came from homes, nursing care facilities and hospitals.

 

My corona weather forecast:

I predict as we head into summer we see an increase of cases in hot weather states as more people stay inside to stay cool. States with cooler and temperate weather will probably see a decrease in the summer as more people enjoy the outdoor weather.

 

For those places with 4 seasons, like NYC, I wonder if the spring and autumn weather will help to decrease cases, while increases might be seen in the more brutal summer and winter months.

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My corona weather forecast:

I predict as we head into summer we see an increase of cases in hot weather states as more people stay inside to stay cool. States with cooler and temperate weather will probably see a decrease in the summer as people enjoy the temperate outdoor weather.

 

Interesting theory except that if that were the case, you would expect hot weather states to also have spikes in cold and flu during the summer. I'm not aware of that being the case.

Dan

 

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.

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Finally, a common drug that reduces the death rate by up to 30%

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/steroid-dexamethasone-reduces-deaths-from-severe-covid-19-trial.html

Bob

 

It looks very hopeful - but the trials make a more modest claim overall than 30%.

 

The results suggest that one death would be prevented by treatment with dexamethasone among every eight ventilated Covid-19 patients, Landray said, and one death would be prevented among every 25 Covid-19 patients that received the drug and are on oxygen.

 

Among patients with Covid-19 who did not require respiratory support, there was no benefit from treatment with dexamethasone.

 

It was only "among the most severely ill Covid-19 patients admitted to hospital" that they saw "reduced death rates by around a third"

 

Which still registers Wonderful on the Good News Guage.

 

If an effective vaccine proves hard to produce, the other tack of treating those who have contracted in such a way that the death rate is reduced to "acceptable" levels, would be another way to wrestle this thing to the ground. Then achieving herd immunity would not be such a disaster in deaths.

 

ah, me - I'm looking forward to the day this is all "oh,yeah, remember when?" stuff....

 

nat

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as long as we aren't getting hospitalizations and/or deaths?

 

That's particularly good since many hospitals are facing bankruptcy and up to 50% of staff have been furloughed while remaining staff is forced to take pay cuts but hey, we're really nipping this thing in the bud!

 

Very true. I finally had my three month late periodontal dental appointment the other day. I asked her what she thought of all of this and she was basically pissed. She said shutting down all the dentists in CA was a joke. They know how to control this in their offices and wasn't worried in the least. She wore a full body medical gown, gloves and had what looked like a standard surgical mask plus a full face shield. So yeah, she was covered up way more than you usually see for a standard dental apt. Another new thing was a mildly unpleasant tasting liquid I had to swish around my mouth for 30 seconds to kill anything that might be hiding in there, then she proceeded. Her office was so busy she did the cleaning herself because her hygienist was totally booked. This is another example of regardless of what the virus does, we're not going to be locked down again. It was obvious to me my dentist won't put up with it and the way she talked it's probably most of them feel that way.

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
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In the good news, bad news category: I read an article today, but unfortunately can't find the link. Bottom line is that it said casual contact with people, packages, etc. wasn't much of a problem. Prolonged contact with multiple people, particularly where ventilation is poor and there's lots of talking or singing, is the most problematic.

 

The way I read that is it's okay to dip into a store for a few minutes, or pretty much anyplace else as long as you're careful, but bars and concerts are problematic...which doesn't really help out my SSS bros.

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In the good news, bad news category: I read an article today, but unfortunately can't find the link. Bottom line is that it said casual contact with people, packages, etc. wasn't much of a problem. Prolonged contact with multiple people, particularly where ventilation is poor and there's lots of talking or singing, is the most problematic.

 

The way I read that is it's okay to dip into a store for a few minutes, or pretty much anyplace else as long as you're careful, but bars and concerts are problematic...which doesn't really help out my SSS bros.

 

Well, I can back up the info you can't reference as to source with something I heard from a relative! (Is this hard science or what?)

 

Actually - my son-in-law is the Adminstrator for a sizable Dallas GP practice - the GPs are really on the front lines - and he has been saying basically the same thing. That the amount of time you spend with people is an extremely important factor. Carriers don't spread the virus all the time all day long, but only at certain short moments, doing certain things (like sneezing or coughing or talking right in your face, etc.) So the docs, seeing lots patients for short times, actually can be less at risk than the staff, working in the same area all day long with a few co-workers.

 

It's more complicated than that, but that's the general idea.

 

nat

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All I can say is that my cat and I have been snuggling closely for months and neither of us have caught the virus. She is elderly and has pre-existing conditions, including an unsightly cist on her back.

Dan

 

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.

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There are several articles today about a group of friends who all went to a bar in Jacksonville Florida on June 6 to celebrate someone's birthday. They all caught it plus 7 of the staff at the bar. Here's one: https://miami.cbslocal.com/2020/06/17/16-friends-coronavirus-florida-bar/

 

The good news is this quote: Everyone in the group tested positive; and though some had flu like symptoms, none got seriously ill.

 

This was one of the five points that doctor wrote about in the Hill article I posted weeks ago. Let the young people go out and do whatever they want, it's unlikely they will get seriously ill and very unlikely they will get hospitalized and extremely unlikely to die from it. That's how you build up herd immunity. They're not stupid including the girl in the article, they know they need to protect their older family members. Give them another week or so, they're now immune and can go on with their lives.

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
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Give them another week or so, they're now immune and can go on with their lives.

 

wishful thinking, I hope you are right. Science hasn't been able to prove this yet.

 

On another front : After Weeks Of No New Cases Of COVID-19 In New Zealand, 2 Arrivals Test Positive

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/16/878316880/after-weeks-of-no-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-new-zealand-2-cases-arrive-from-u-k

 

and this : Beijing extends movement curbs to contain resurgent coronavirus

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china/beijing-extends-movement-curbs-to-contain-resurgent-coronavirus-idUSKBN23O02G

New Beijing outbreak raises virus fears for rest of world

 

https://apnews.com/54374ff841dfd84323a1fb86d1e93180

 

strap yourselves in, folks. This long and bumpy ride is far from over

:nopity:
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There are several articles today about a group of friends who all went to a bar in Jacksonville Florida on June 6 to celebrate someone's birthday. They all caught it plus 7 of the staff at the bar. Here's one: https://miami.cbslocal.com/2020/06/17/16-friends-coronavirus-florida-bar/

 

The good news is this quote: Everyone in the group tested positive; and though some had flu like symptoms, none got seriously ill.

 

This was one of the five points that doctor wrote about in the Hill article I posted weeks ago. Let the young people go out and do whatever they want, it's unlikely they will get seriously ill and very unlikely they will get hospitalized and extremely unlikely to die from it. That's how you build up herd immunity. They're not stupid including the girl in the article, they know they need to protect their older family members. Give them another week or so, they're now immune and can go on with their lives.

 

Bob

 

I humbly advise that you consider these issues:

 

1. anecdotal evidence is not scientific evidence. What happens to happen in any particular situation with say, a dozen or so people, can't be extrapolated across to 300 million other people and used to make a telling point. Anecdotes are great for illustrations, but don't give a true grasp on a massive, complicated situation.

 

2. so, for purposes of discussion, let's grant your point, that the young people are probably going to be fine. They will still become carriers and, unless they quarantine themselves or practice very strict distancing/handwashing/mask protocols, they will spread the disease to not-so-young people.

 

3. Maybe the girl in the article was not stupid - having been young and stupid myself some decades back, I can 100% guarantee that young people as a whole cannot be relied upon to somehow just keep the disease among themselves. Even with the best of intentions, they can't live in a "young people only" world. Exposed people who socialize without precautions are...and this is in bold...a social menace with regard to this exceptionally communicable disease that is killing and killing and killing people by the hour.

 

4. Herd immunity is estimated to be achieved with 70% infection rate. The entire 15 - 54 year old population is still less than 50% of total US population. Herd immunity is still a disastrous scenario unless it's largely achieved via a vaccine that doesn't exist yet.

 

I would love to think otherwise, right? So I'm open to any and all corrections of my views....

 

nat

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No, you're not wrong it's just many doctors have said and are still saying, basically this is just another covid virus. The others did produce immunity after infection and there's no evidence saying that's not the case now. You can call that a "glass is half full" thing. To further your point, we still have a long ways to go. Here's a sobering article about all the confusing things we don't know about this virus:

 

https://www.lmtonline.com/news/article/The-ultimate-covid-19-mystery-Why-does-it-spare-15345984.php#photo-19561473

 

The big takeaway to me is right at the end where it says this:

 

Another wrinkle: People who have little history of viral infections tend to have more severe reactions when they get infected later in life.

 

Many older people on this forum and others have said they've been very healthy, haven't had any kind of cold or illness in years and imply they probably wouldn't get hit too hard even if they caught this because they're so healthy. I am also one of those but this statement says exactly the opposite. Those people actually would get hit harder because they've never built up a lifetime of immunity to all those things. Hmmm...

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
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Many older people on this forum and others have said they've been very healthy, haven't had any kind of cold or illness in years and imply they probably wouldn't get hit too hard even if they caught this because they're so healthy. I am also one of those but this statement says exactly the opposite. Those people actually would get hit harder because they've never built up a lifetime of immunity to all those things. Hmmm...

 

If you're up for some heavy reading, a couple days ago the CDC released a pretty comprehensive report on what we know so far. It mostly confirms existing knowledge - old people die, people with underlying conditions die, young people don't die much - but breaks it down further than just that.

 

Being an official Old Guy, my takeaway is to stay away from crowds.

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I'm so tired of the "young people aren't affected as much" thing. When I see that a healthy woman in her 20s needed a double lung transplant after she fought off the infection because her lungs were destroyed, I don't think anyone can say for certain that this damned thing is easier on young people. Even if statistically it is, I think it can be way too devastating to take that risk.

"I'm so crazy, I don't know this is impossible! Hoo hoo!" - Daffy Duck

 

"The good news is that once you start piano you never have to worry about getting laid again. More time to practice!" - MOI

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