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OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?


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I've been going back to the original interview of W.H.O. related to the "very rare comment" as well as the subsequent comments apparently "walking it back" as it's been characterized. I think you can group various things that have been said into a few characterizations. The "very rare" comment was with respect to a collection of studies that have been done. They have not divulged the details of those studies as to how controlled they were or what the environmental conditions were, etc. There was a 30-40% comment made regarding spread from asymptomatic. That apparently came from a model. What data was fed into the model? Which model? We all know the models have been wildly wrong in many cases. Finally, they know that there HAS been spread from people who were asymptomatic, but don't really know how much. I would again add, under which circumstances, environmental conditions, age range, location, etc?

 

Intuitively, it makes sense using basic logic that somebody who is asymptomatic would spread it much less if they are not coughing/sneezing, than somebody who is symptomatic. That doesn't mean they CAN'T spread it, but it would logically be at a much lower rate, especially if you practice common sense behaviors like hand washing. One doctor suggested that asymptomatic spread might be from people breathing heavily from exercise or possibly singing/yelling, etc.....probably not just from regular breathing as has been suggested. So again, they have not done a good job as of yet of releasing concrete data from studies that would tie a rate of spread to specific activities, environmental conditions, etc. People will leave that piece of information out and pick the result that is either the best or the worst, depending on their agenda.

 

I'm going to continue going about my life in a way that makes sense which is relatively unchanged from what I was doing 3-4 months ago. I think when all is said and done, the data will come in line with my choices.

Dan

 

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.

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<...snip...>

By the way, World Health Organization is now saying that it isn't spread easily if you are asymptomatic. The "super spreaders" are the people with symptoms.

The WHO retracted that statement.

 

Florida partially re-opened 3 weeks ago and are not reporting record cases of COVID-19. Governor says it's because more people are being tested, but the newspaper says this is untrue - testing is about the same and perhaps even a little less.

 

So who do I believe?

 

I'll go with record confirmed cases after partial re-opening as evidence that it isn't going away yet, and isolating was working.

 

As much as I'm wishing thing were back to normal, I'm not going into the ocean until the shark fins have moved on.

 

I really miss gigging. I really miss going to the store without a mask and gloves. I really miss going out to dinner every once in a while. But it's better than getting sick - I make my living with my lungs (saxophone, wind synth, flute and vocals).

 

For now I'll continue to stay home and write more aftermarket style and song software for Band-in-a-Box. In a year or so when it's done, I'll have some income from it. I know that's a long time, but at least I'm doing something productive at home.

 

Insights and incites by Notes.

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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<...snip...>

By the way, World Health Organization is now saying that it isn't spread easily if you are asymptomatic. The "super spreaders" are the people with symptoms.

The WHO retracted that statement.

 

They didn't retract it, they clarified it, the media is saying they're "walking it back" not retracting it. I spoke to this in detail immediately prior to your post.

 

If you don't want to read my subsequent comments and instead quote my initial comment based on what they said Monday, I'll give you the cliff notes of what I posted afterwards:

 

"Spread is Rare if Asymptomatic" - based on a handful of scientific studies

"30-40% spread asymptomatic" - based on models (no detail of which model or what data was entered into the model)

"We know it has spread from asymptomatic but don't know how much" - latest comments that does not make any correlation to specific activities and/or environmental conditions

 

The main terminology being walked back was the specific term "very rare" because it gave the impression that you can't spread it without symptoms. You CAN spread it when asymptomatic but that doesn't mean it isn't rare. Again, no correlation to circumstances.

Dan

 

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.

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I'm going to continue going about my life in a way that makes sense which is relatively unchanged from what I was doing 3-4 months ago. I think when all is said and done, the data will come in line with my choices.

Same here. The experts have been wrong and the models have been wrong on several occasions. Wear a mask, don't wear a mask...it can be spread, it can't be spread. You can walk on the beach here but not over there. 2 million people will die or maybe not that many, etc.

 

I've basically gone back to "normal", although I'm washing my hands more and not shaking hands. One of my bands is rehearsing again and long time friends had us over for dinner last week.

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And then suddenly it was perfectly okay to gather by the thousands to protest certain things but you still can't protest a lockdown.

 

Trust the experts...even if they are wrong or keep changing their mind based on their political stance.

 

On a related note, a blonde babe newscaster (who apparently can't figure out how Google works), stated that the media was vocal about Trump rallies potentially spreading corona virus, but quiet about the protests doing the same. I decided to see if that was true. Fortunately, despite being a musician, I know how to do an internet search.

 

I was actually taken aback by how much of the media did sound a warning, but also noted that a lot of these warnings were from "liberal" media. Here's just the first page of links. Many of them reference concerns from health experts, they're not op-ed pages. I didn't include a link to the Washington Post because it's behind a pay wall.

 

I just don't understand how supposed "journalists" can be so amazingly ignorant to state "facts" that, with 30 seconds of search time, are clearly fiction.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-the-protests-lead-to-a-spike-in-coronavirus-cases-that-depends-2020-06-03

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/protests-could-accelerate-spread-coronavirus-public-health-experts-say-n1220551

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/murphy-worries-police-brutality-protests-could-cause-coronavirus-spikes-but-he-encourages-them/ar-BB156rZl

 

https://www.wtnh.com/news/health/coronavirus/protests-could-cause-spike-in-covid-cases-hartford-healthcare-says/

 

 

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/06/04/coronavirus-newsom-spike-covid-19-ghaly-tubbs-pandemic/

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/protests-pandemic/612460/

 

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-covid19-protest-superspreader-outdoor-transmission-20200531.html

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Same here. The experts have been wrong and the models have been wrong on several occasions.

 

To be fair, they were also right on many occasions. It is highly contagious. No existing vaccine is effective against it. And there are other things we will simply never know, like whether the estimates of how many people would die if no mitigating measures were taken was right or wrong, because mitigating measures were taken. In the US, it's not going away overall. There are over 2,000,000 confirmed cases and 114,000 deaths, so that's a death rate of 5.6%, which isn't far off from what most medical people predicted. Now, some people say that there are really a lot more cases so the death rate should be lower, while others say the number of deaths is underreported, so the death rate should be higher. That discrepancy is on the people doing the statistics, not epidemiologists trying to get a handle on the disease. They said hundreds of thousands of people would die. So far 400,000 have died worldwide, and this isn't over yet. The rate of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States stubbornly refuses to go down; it has hit a plateau with another 1,000 people (give or take a few) dying every day.

 

I've basically gone back to "normal", although I'm washing my hands more and not shaking hands. One of my bands is rehearsing again and long time friends had us over for dinner last week.

 

I'm not a doctor. My gut tells me that those going back to "normal" will probably be okay. The odds of dying from COVID-19 are remote. You don't want to get sick either, but then again, you probably don't want to get any life-threatening disease, even if you know you probably won't die. The virus will keep moving, hitting some states harder, while other states diminish. It will go to countries where it hasn't hit too hard and start additional cycles. It's going to be around for a while, a lot more people are going to die worldwide and in the US...but you probably won't.

 

To judge experts as clueless because they had zero experience with something that had never existed before, and had to try and figure out what they were dealing with in real time, while it was happening, with governments pushing back on providing real data...I think that's a harsh judgement. Medical experts are not psychics. Science works slowly because it has to collect data and sort out what that data means. The experts are STILL, several months into this, trying to figure out exactly what this enemy is, and its modus operandi. People can say the countries that escaped relatively unscathed were lucky, or acted more intelligently than the US, or whatever. We'll never know. There is no alternate earth where we can set up a control group. We're ALL beta testers, in all aspects of this.

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one of our forumites posted an article on Facebook that stated that 13 states had increases in covid-19 cases after "reopening". They went into great detail about those 13 states, then one sentence saying 16 states had major decreases in cases after reopening. Our forum friend was still trying to make the case that the 13 were significant while the 16 were not. Cherrypicking data. To me it says that opening vs not opening isn't the issue, it's how you do it. I'm not saying to go lick each others faces. Wear masks, wash hands, practice distancing where appropriate, but we can open safely. 13 increases, 16 decreases....seems like that favors opening despite the headline.

Dan

 

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.

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I watched a live news conference yesterday given by the LA County Health Dept. Lots of stats and some I can't remember but here are the very interesting highlights. First, LA county has 10 million people but has about half the total cases in California. LA's case count as of now is 67000 cases and just under 2,800 deaths. The stats:

 

1. 92% of the deaths involved underlying conditions. No definitions of what those are but we all know obesity, diabetes, heart disease all tend to go together.

2. 42% of cases are health care professionals, about 10% nursing homes and another 10% in misc other isolated cases like prisons and homeless shelters meaning over 60% of cases do not involve us "regular folks" who are not in those categories.

3. Hispanics are about 21% of cases but blacks are only 8%. I was surprised when she said that.

4. Total number of tests is just over 800,000 and they're expecting to hit a million this week.

5.. The positive tests vs total numbers of tests were running at about 8% but have dropped to around 5% in the last few weeks.

6. Finally the biggie. No spike is cases since the protests started on Memorial Day but they assume there will be in the coming week.

 

Interesting numbers for sure considering how big LA County is and the numbers of total tests there have been. This is a very big sample and as I've been talking about for months now, the California Mystery is still alive and well. These numbers are way, way lower than the other hot spots were around the country. Recently the numbers have declined but not to the parameters set out by the governor. Hospitalizations though are stable and have met the standard.

 

One final note, I read a comment that I had forgotten about. Roughly 100,000 people die in hospitals every year due to various infections they picked up in the hospital. It's getting late, I'm not searching for a specific link but I've heard similar numbers about that for years. Yet another variable concerning COVID deaths. Did they die of the virus or another infection they just picked up?

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
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The one statistic that we are not mentioning and of course can't be measured is the number of people who don't die but end up with permanent brain, lung, kidney, heart or other organ damage.

 

I read that the rate of permanent damage is high, even for people with mild symptoms.

 

Encouraging news is there is a promising drug being developed in Russia based on a Japanese drug that stops the virus from replicating.

 

https://www.worldhealth.net/news/promising-covid-19-busting-drug-russia/

 

Science works its way through blind alleys, dead ends, red herrings, and eventually is let to good facts. Finding out what COVID isn't is a step in finding out what it is. Unfortunately there is no way to make the discovery process instant. But with all the people who are working on this, I'm sure it is progressing as fast as possible.

 

Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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. 13 increases, 16 decreases....seems like that favors opening despite the headline.

 

That says to me that averaging the data by state boundaries doesn"t tell you want you want to know. The real answer probably looks more like how much social contact people have or don"t have.

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The one statistic that we are not mentioning and of course can't be measured is the number of people who don't die but end up with permanent brain, lung, kidney, heart or other organ damage.

 

I read that the rate of permanent damage is high, even for people with mild symptoms.

 

Notes

 

This statistic can't be measured? And why not?

 

And the rate of permanent damage is high, even for mild symptoms? I haven't "read" that in my daily google feed, which overall doesn't shy away from articles designed to instill fear of the virus.

 

Anecdotally I know only 1 family personally, that has contracted COVID. A couple in their late 40's that got it from their little boy. They recovered at home and are now back at work, they're fine.

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Anecdotally I know only 1 family personally, that has contracted COVID. A couple in their late 40's that got it from their little boy. They recovered at home and are now back at work, they're fine.

 

 

If it is confirmed that longer term damage does occur with kidneys, heart etc (and I agree it's not been 100% established yet), you wouldn't expect to see those affects immediately - could take months or years. We'll probably know in a decade if there's a defined set of syndromes / disease that result in chronic illness and/or early mortality.

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Anecdotally I know only 1 family personally, that has contracted COVID. A couple in their late 40's that got it from their little boy. They recovered at home and are now back at work, they're fine.

 

I know a lot of people. You get enough emails like this, and it changes your perspective.

 

"Unfortunately [my father has] been unconscious on a ventilator in intensive care over last 5 weeks in a location impossible for me to access. So opened up a huge new introspective process for me to bide my time with."

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To me it says that opening vs not opening isn't the issue, it's how you do it.

 

I was very disappointed when several states re-opened without meeting the conditions recommended by the government AND the White House. I wonder if those are the ones having the most problems.

 

Again, I can't recommend this site enough if you want to see where cases are rising, deaths are rising, what's falling, by how much, meaningful percentages of change, etc. I can see no partisan leanings at all, in fact the people who come up with the stats are doing so because they felt the CDC wasn't accurate enough. These were the stats used by the White House regarding coming up with re-opening guidelines.

 

There is no one-size-fits-all solution, and trying to push a solution that conforms to a particular political ideology is just plain stupid. And that goes for the right and left-leaning sides of the story, who are both trying so hard to outdo each others' stupidity.

 

I really think anyone in right-wing media should be forced to read left-wing media, and left-wing media should be forced to read right-wing media. Come to think of it, maybe one reason why this has remained a productive and inquisitive decision is because it's pretty clear quite a few people are reading both sides of story...so now they know enough not to trust either one :)

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Now, here's a quote I can REALLY get behind - regarding the spike in some places but not others, and the cause:

 

'This virus is much more spotty,' said Arnold Monto, professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan School for Public Health. 'It is so complicated that when people give you a simple answer to this, it"s probably not right.'

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... it's pretty clear quite a few people are reading both sides of story...so now they know enough not to trust either one :)

That"s the real story that isn"t being reported or meaningfully analyzed - the media has failed miserably and continues to do so. It"s a a huge problem for our societies/culture. There"s something deadly disfunctional about the media + government combined driving the current stories of the day. Look how fast the virus fell off the radar and was replaced by protests and rioting - and I"m sure it will all be replaced again soon enough! The news is not reporting on what people are actually doing, 'we the people" are not driving the story; instead the story is about how we are reacting to the current news cycle, soon to be replaced by another news event and stories about our reaction to the 'new' situation - ad nauseum. That kind of constant narrative whiplash and cultural A.D.D. Is not healthy for our societies and it"s subject to incredible abuse.

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... it's pretty clear quite a few people are reading both sides of story...so now they know enough not to trust either one :)

That"s the real story that isn"t being reported or meaningfully analyzed - the media has failed miserably and continues to do so. It"s a a huge problem for our societies/culture. There"s something deadly disfunctional about the media + government combined driving the current stories of the day. Look how fast the virus fell off the radar and was replaced by protests and rioting - and I"m sure it will all be replaced again soon enough! The news is not reporting on what people are actually doing, 'we the people" are not driving the story; instead the story is about how we are reacting to the current news cycle, soon to be replaced by another news event and stories about our reaction to the 'new' situation - ad nauseum. That kind of constant narrative whiplash and cultural A.D.D. Is not healthy for our societies and it"s subject to incredible abuse.

 

Maybe I'm naive, but that's why I really like what's happening here. It's clear we have lefties and righties, BUT they're having a dialog. People are being respectful of each other. Of course we won't always agree, but we can understand that everyone has a reason to believe what they believe.

 

This forum reminds me of Democrats and Republicans in the senate, back in the 50s. They didn't always agree on things, but they wanted what was best for everyone...which usually meant some constituency wasn't going to get what it wanted. They just figured that was part of the deal, and they waited for their turn. Now, it's all "I want ME, and screw everyone else, I'm right, they're wrong, I'm entitled." What they don't realize is that we live in a society.

 

I'd also bet you could pick the most leftie from this thread and the most rightie, put them in a room, get them talking about music, and they'd walk out best friends...maybe even after solving some of the world's problems.

 

I like this little part of the world. I wish the larger part of the world was more like it.

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Here's an article that summarizes what I've been saying for two months. The public was willing put up with being locked down and unemployed for a certain period of time but that time is up. As a society we're accepting the risks and moving on.

 

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/502182-us-showing-signs-of-retreat-in-battle-against-covid-19

 

Mnuchin said basically the same thing yesterday:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/treasury-secretary-mnuchin-says-we-cant-shut-down-the-economy-again.html

 

This is the new reality. Like the man said, this virus will be with us basically forever even with a vaccine so we have to accept it and learn to live with it.

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
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Agreed, there probably won't be massive lockdowns again due to political and economic realities. Many more people are going to die before this gets under control. Most folks seem okay with that, considering the alternative.

 

But the lockdowns were then, and this is now. The first set of lockdowns almost certainly prevented a higher degree of spreading. I think even uninformed people realize that, because countries that locked down in the quickest and most complete manner are re-opening with the least amount of problems. They paid their dues, now they're reaping the rewards. Countries that minimized the problem initially, like the US, UK, Brazil, Russian, and Spain, are paying much heavier dues.

 

My biggest takeaway is that it didn't have to be like this. Hopefully, the lessons learned from the bumbling, chaotic response of the countries that got hit hardest will be taken to heart, so something similar in the future doesn't follow the same trajectory. It's like we set fire to a house, and then complained there wasn't enough water to put out the fire...so it's the water's fault.

 

And don't pin your hopes on a vaccine. Not only does one need to be developed and tested (to make sure that, y'know, pregnant women who get the vaccine don't give birth to two-headed demon spawn), a supply chain has to be developed to distribute it world-wide. Good luck with that. It's not over yet by any means.

 

Humans...can't live with them, can't live without them.

 

And don't forget what I've said about large-scale, x-class solar flares when one of the survivors says "well seriously...who would have thought that was actually going to happen?"

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I consider myself a political moderate - I lean a little left on social issues and a little right on fiscal issues. -- 50+ years registered independent.

 

We are in a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.

 

Keeping in isolation hurts the poorest people the most. They are the ones that have to work to live, and the most dangerous jobs have always gone to the disadvantaged.

 

But not reopening will also worsen the economy. Financially this hurts everyone, from the CEOs, hedge fund managers, right down the line. A bad economy also kills people, and again, the poorest are the first to go.

 

On the other hand opening the economy will solve part of the economic problems, but spread the disease more rapidly. This will kill a lot of people too.

 

The question seems to be this to me: "Do you want to risk death or permanent organ damage for the DOW?" That's a very tough one to answer, and there is no right answer, it seems to me both Yes and No are in some ways wrong.

 

I don't read anything to the left of The Atlantic or the right of The Hill. From MSNBC to the extremes are over 50% false. From FOX to the other extremes are also over 50% false in the opposite direction. Politifact and other news fact check organizations all seem to agree on this.

 

In our local paper, a month or so ago, a 45 year old healthy, athletic man caught the disease and survived. It killed his kidneys and now has to get dialysis 3 times a week for the rest of his shortened life.

 

I read an article I think in Scientific American about the brain damage studies.

 

The American Academy of Anti-Aging medicine has outlined the permanent damage caused by COVID.

 

Our local paper swings a bit right, the other two are not left-wing publications but scientific reporting.

 

The USA has about 6 percent of the world population and about 30 percent of the world's COVID cases. Clearly this should have been handled better,

 

Florida is reopening and 3 weeks later is having daily record new cases. Is the death and disability rate worse than it would be if we stayed locked down and the economy fails and inflation goes crazy?

 

I don't pretend to know.

 

Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

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And don't forget what I've said about large-scale, x-class solar flares when one of the survivors says "well seriously...who would have thought that was actually going to happen?"

From what I"ve read, the sun has entered an excessively quiet state right now and it"s expected to be like that for quite awhile.

 

What I"m actually worried about is the Earth"s drifting magnetic field, if it flips or worse goes chaotic - like it has in the distant past, we"re going to be in for a wild ride. With all the craziness in our human world, it would be poetic if all of a sudden we had 3 magnetic norths and couple of magnetic souths, and a lot of electronics unable to function.

 

Just saying, it"s prudent to keep those acoustic imstruments in good shape and nicely tuned.

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back to the virus :)

 

excellent article written by a MD, also a physician scientist, no politics

 

"Am I immune to COVID-19 if I have antibodies?"

 

https://news.yahoo.com/am-immune-covid-19-antibodies-121523168.html

 

That's really interesting. The idea of a "proofreader gene" is fascinating. It's also encouraging to know that the immune system is fairly effective against it in the first place.

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