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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051159 06/26/20 05:57 PM
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I'm also curious. Chuck, is your area still low in cases, or has it followed the rest of Florida? Edmonton was probably the best major metro area in NA until we started coming back up with initial reopening. Pretty sure we've passed Calgary in active cases now.


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051165 06/26/20 06:46 PM
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https://verobeach.com/vero-beach-community/coronavirus-data-indian-river-county-florida

Updated: June 26, 2020 @ 1:42 pm


Indian River County Cases = 541
(individuals who tested positive)
Residents: 530
Non-Residents: 11

Deaths: 16

Gender:
Male: 243 (46%)
Female: 286 (54%)
Unknown/No data: 1 (1%)

Race:
Black: 38 (7%)
White: 258 (49%)
Other: 51 (10%)
Unknown/No Data: 183 (35%)

Ethnicity:
Hispanic: 109 (21%)
Not-Hispanic: 211 (40%)
Unknown/No Data: 210 (40%)

Last edited by GregC; 06/26/20 06:48 PM.
Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051169 06/26/20 07:22 PM
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The only person you can listen to is yourself. Too many not so hidden agendas from government to open up. If you don’t do it for the money, I really can’t see any point getting back to gigging until there’s a vaccine, especially if your over 40 and carrying health issues. Surely the experience of a gig at the moment has to be extremely low on energy and the hassle and heightened anxiety would make it tedious.

Of course the youngsters will do the gigs, but you have to pass the baton on to the younger guys at some point, certainly until it’s safe to go back into it with a vaccine.


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051173 06/26/20 07:40 PM
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When this thread started there was a broad consensus that Florida was at the low end of the spectrum in terms of risk. That's not true anymore, and the state continues to trend in the wrong direction. Illustrates how all gigging plans must be viewed as tentative.

I don't know about Vero Beach in particular. But when the Mets decided to leave Florida to continue spring training in NY, that was a pretty clear sign that things had shifted.


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051176 06/26/20 08:09 PM
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Vero (and much of the east coast) isn't that far from Orange County, where Orlando is. They had over 1000 cases reported yesterday. And some of the worst counties are not that much further south. It's a bit dangerous to look at one county over another since people can and do travel between them so much.

Hearing that most bands are reporting on FB--I'm not on there but I just talked to a musician who is--that most if not all gigs are being cancelled today. As I said earlier, bars can be open but they can't serve alcohol, so there goes any money needed to pay bands (and any reason to stay open for most of them).

I think it's absolutely pathetic that--so many months out from the start of this--there are long lines to get tested and some places (including hospitals) are running out of tests period. Pa-thetic.

Last edited by Stokely; 06/26/20 08:11 PM.
Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051179 06/26/20 08:20 PM
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-record-cases-coronavirus-deepening-crisis-maps-165529121.html

CDC maps show Florida's deepening coronavirus crisis, as state shatters daily case record

Florida announced nearly 9,000 new daily coronavirus cases on Friday, breaking its previous record and sparking new concerns about a surge across the South.

“I think we were careless and we went out into a public place when we should not have. And we were not wearing masks. I think we had a whole ‘Out of sight, out of mind’ mentality. The state opens back up and said everybody was fine, so we took advantage of that,” said Erika Crisp, who works in health care.

Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051180 06/26/20 08:22 PM
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Florida Orders Bars to Shut Down as Coronavirus Cases Hit New Record

https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-orders-bars-shut-down-175146869.html


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051181 06/26/20 08:23 PM
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You get tested today then tomorrow you catch the virus. I'm not seeing the big value in being tested in this scenario. In fact you could get the virus on the way to the test location. A vaccine is the answer. Or an effective therapy once you have symtoms.

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Re: Bookings are coming in!
Jr. Deluxe #3051186 06/26/20 08:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Jr. Deluxe
You get tested today then tomorrow you catch the virus. I'm not seeing the big value in being tested in this scenario. In fact you could get the virus on the way to the test location. A vaccine is the answer. Or an effective therapy once you have symtoms.

I don't follow or maybe I disagree
Here is why:

If you test positive, you don't want to spread it further,

also , county health is going to do contact tracing on you, to determine origin and spread.

You would prefer expert medical help, if you are positive for Covid-19, correct ?

Re: Bookings are coming in!
Stokely #3051189 06/26/20 09:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Stokely
Vero (
I think it's absolutely pathetic that--so many months out from the start of this--there are long lines to get tested and some places (including hospitals) are running out of tests period. Pa-thetic.

it is pathetic. The time to act and take hard action was January - March.

Some states/county knew we had to shelter in place, etc etc like CA.
[ CA has 58 counties. Some counties, like rural San Joaquin and Imperial,
ignored CA state mandates. Now they are hot spots].

It was known and obvious in Jan/Feb what was needed to be done to stop Covid in its tracks.

Other countries, in Europe and Asia, did not waste the 2-3 month Covid warning.

Now they are in better shape, as they got a payback for taking hard action for 2-3 months.

Our country, on a national level, wasted the 2-3 month window.
2.49M cases
127K deaths.

Epic failure. The US is regarded as bad as Russia and Brazil for mishandling the pandemic.

Ignore Covid, allow it to take root and spread , its like a wild fire.

Last edited by GregC; 06/26/20 09:17 PM.
Re: Bookings are coming in!
Jr. Deluxe #3051191 06/26/20 09:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Jr. Deluxe
You get tested today then tomorrow you catch the virus. I'm not seeing the big value in being tested in this scenario. In fact you could get the virus on the way to the test location. A vaccine is the answer. Or an effective therapy once you have symtoms.

Really, you don’t see the “big“ value? How about if you already have it but don’t know it? Getting the results of a test might help prevent you from infecting others. I think that’s a pretty big value myself.

Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051194 06/26/20 09:20 PM
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Well we are fairly certain no vaccine will be coming to us in 2020, and maybe not in 2021. The fastest vaccine ever made public was for Mumps and that took four years. Some corners are bound to be cut here and hopefully that risk will be worth it. I can say I won't be entirely eager to be first up to get a rushed vaccine.

In the meantime, I'd like to think that the more informed we are the better decisions we can make. I reckon there's a good chance that people that want to be tested think they might have the virus--and we should make it as easy as possible to find this out (since presumably like GregC says, someone who knows they are positive can then be much more careful). A side benefit is getting a better understanding of just how many people have this thing, even if we can't cure it yet. Uncertainty is bad. Whatever my gut feeling may be on this, epidemiologists seem to be the ones saying "do more testing", while politicians seem to be making excuses why we don't need it. I know who I tend to believe.

I don't see how you can catch this driving to a testing site (?) More and more studies are showing that risk goes up: indoors; with more time; with less distance; and without masks. That makes the gym and bars (indoors ones) top of the avoid list since they can possibly check all those boxes. Something like the beach is very low risk IMO, provided it's not super-crowded (and none here are, you can quickly walk to a spot with nobody within 50 feet). Bathrooms, yeah, just pee in the water like a true surfer!

Last edited by Stokely; 06/26/20 09:23 PM.
Re: Bookings are coming in!
Stokely #3051196 06/26/20 09:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Stokely
We

I don't see how you can catch this driving to a testing site (?) r!

what ?

where did that come from ?

I have to visit Kaiser once per week, here in CA

These medical facilities go wayyyyyy over the top to sanitize and protect their medical facilities.

I am aware that some people are afraid of doctors. They are afraid of tests.
They are afraid of visits.
They are afraid of vaccines, too.
There is a a certain [. and disappointing] % of folks that will refuse
a Covid 19 vaccine. Unreasonable fear.

Re: Bookings are coming in!
eric #3051197 06/26/20 09:44 PM
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Originally Posted by eric
Now that about a month has passed, I'm curious how things are going for those of you that are doing live gigs? Is anyone playing in venues where the band and patrons are wearing masks and socially distancing on the dance floor? That's my main sticking point with any future gigs - I'd really rather avoid this by playing outdoors in a large enough setting that it's safe to not need masks.

Not live gigs (sorry feel free to ignore), masks not required and not on anyone except employees, dancing lighter than normal and confined to couples who are "a couple" or at least six feet apart. The dancing rule - and social distancing - are kinda sorta enforced by security. This very large indoor room used to be a supermarket, so tables are 6' apart and then some. I feel safe in there.

But I wouldn't in others. Just how seriously Phase II rules are enforced varies wildly in my area - as does each individual room's layout. I'd take it case by case Eric. It's not a one size fits all.

Re: Bookings are coming in!
GregC #3051198 06/26/20 09:50 PM
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Originally Posted by GregC
Originally Posted by Stokely
We

I don't see how you can catch this driving to a testing site (?) r!

what ?

where did that come from ?

I have to visit Kaiser once per week, here in CA

These medical facilities go wayyyyyy over the top to sanitize and protect their medical facilities.

I am aware that some people are afraid of doctors. They are afraid of tests.
They are afraid of visits.
They are afraid of vaccines, too.
There is a a certain [. and disappointing] % of folks that will refuse
a Covid 19 vaccine. Unreasonable fear.

I was responding to another comment (not by you) further up, I should have quoted it. I agree, driving to a testing site and being tested would be a non-worry.

Re: Bookings are coming in!
Stokely #3051199 06/26/20 09:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Stokely
Whatever my gut feeling may be on this, epidemiologists seem to be the ones saying "do more testing", while politicians seem to be making excuses why we don't need it.

Some politicians. One in particular but I'll stop here.

Just got a notice that the E.U. will be barring travelers from the USA (among other countries they deem to have "not controlled the coronavirus outbreak.")

I have the feeling most of you guys will be back at your jobs a long time before I will. My last gig was March 12.

Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051208 06/26/20 11:21 PM
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Each of my three bands has exactly one gig this summer. Two gigs are at large outdoor venues, so I'm feeling okay about those, but one is at a nightclub. Even though it's a large club, this band typically draws a frenzied crowed, so any social distancing will be a foregone conclusion shortly after downbeat or they get liquored up, whichever comes first. We did insist that they provide an elevated stage for the band. I may just end up staying there all night.


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
Moonglow #3051227 06/27/20 01:38 AM
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I just accepted a duo gig outdoors in an open-air environment. I am incredibly cautious and fastidious about distancing, yet this feels like an optimal environment for a public gig. I can ensure distance from the other player and from anyone who might be there. It will not draw a crowd. This will be my first and I am guessing only "real" gig in the old sense of the word, since March 15. I'm just taking it because I would be completely comfortable being in that spot if I weren't playing, and it's by the water, and so I figured I might as well keep some rapidly diminishing chops up and make a few bucks. I can't imagine taking any other gigs any time soon, except under these very specific circumstances.


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051231 06/27/20 02:18 AM
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New cases locally here in Vero are now gaining very quickly over the last week. The core demographic is age 24-35, the primary vector appears to be bars and similar. Our Governor basically shut down drinking in bars today, which I think was probably the most-effective and least-invasive move available. We also are getting slammed by out-of-towners who come here to vacation and party.

Hospitalizations and deaths in our county -- though lagged behind new cases -- continue to thankfully decline. Plenty of open beds, ventilators, etc. Put differently, a heckuva lot more people are testing positive, but they tend to be younger and thus don't typically require hospitalization. Observed fatality rates are exceptionally low for this cohort.

The somewhat older folks (myself included) continue to keep a low profile, e.g. we do take-out vs. dine-in. We wear masks when we go to the grocery store. The real elderly are keeping a super-duper low profile. All good, considering.

Our town-funded live music gigs appear to be continuing for the time being. They are sold out way in advance. I've seen they do a great job of social distancing outdoors. The few alcohol-funded outdoor gigs we have later in the season will of course depend whether the no-drinking-in-bars order stays in place, or not.

Even with the recent spike in cases, I'd still take a well-managed outdoor gig and have zero concerns about getting infected, based on my previous experience.

Edit: the CDC's recent opinion that -- through horizontal antibody testing -- maybe 10x as many people have had this than actual positive cases reported sort of changed my thinking on the severity of this virus. I know plenty of folks who came down with a "gnarly flu" in Dec - Feb prior to any sort of organized testing. The consequence is that if you're not part of an at-risk cohort, you're probably going to be OK.

Last edited by cphollis; 06/27/20 03:01 AM. Reason: further thoughts?

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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051246 06/27/20 04:03 AM
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Originally Posted by cphollis
New cases locally here in Vero are now gaining very quickly over the last week. The core demographic is age 24-35, the primary vector appears to be bars and similar.
..
Edit: the CDC's recent opinion that -- through horizontal antibody testing -- maybe 10x as many people have had this than actual positive cases reported sort of changed my thinking on the severity of this virus. I know plenty of folks who came down with a "gnarly flu" in Dec - Feb prior to any sort of organized testing. The consequence is that if you're not part of an at-risk cohort, you're probably going to be OK.
Similar here. We have had a huge spike in Story County Iowa. Mostly in the 18-25 age group.

My County health department is saying the spike is mostly the college athletes returning for fall sports running amok. The University will do anything and everything to keep the athletic revenue stream protected being in the Big 12 so it's full steam ahead with practices for the fall. Some of it it is also the general 50% reopening..

Our cumulative cases are over 600 with 3 deaths, all from nursing homes.

Generally, deaths are still predominantly elderly, for which a vaccine will be mostly ineffective. So I believe the following will likely play out which is pretty pessimistic -- COVID-19 is here to stay and we'll need accept that herd immunity will be similar to herd immunity from the flu, and the death rate will end up being whatever we can achieve through therapeutics:

Covid Prediction - Leading epidemiologist Prof. Yehuda Carmeli (Summary: if you're under 50, you should be fine; if you're over 70, you're in trouble; between 50-70, mixed prospects)

Additionally, smoking raises the risk of death and ICU by 2.4x, so it's good to be a non smoker (The gov't won't advertise this this as we all know):

Covid-19 Smoking risk

Last edited by JazzPiano88; 06/27/20 04:09 AM.

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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051251 06/27/20 04:32 AM
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Originally Posted by cphollis
Edit: the CDC's recent opinion that -- through horizontal antibody testing -- maybe 10x as many people have had this than actual positive cases reported sort of changed my thinking on the severity of this virus. I know plenty of folks who came down with a "gnarly flu" in Dec - Feb prior to any sort of organized testing. The consequence is that if you're not part of an at-risk cohort, you're probably going to be OK.

This is not the logical conclusion from that position. They are not rewriting the timeline, merely the breadth of the impact. Otherwise we'd have seen deaths and hospitalizations at the same rate as now. This did not occur.


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051252 06/27/20 04:33 AM
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People are gigging on Long Island (at least in Nassau and Suffolk Counties; I’m not sure about Brooklyn and Queens). I turned down some indoor gigs but took five out door gigs. My first gig in July 11. I’m looking forward to playing and believe I’ll be safe. I’ll wear a mask when less than 6’ from people. Should be fun!

Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051258 06/27/20 04:53 AM
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Seems very desperate to be playing gigs these days so more power to the risk takers.

Re: Bookings are coming in!
JazzPiano88 #3051274 06/27/20 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by JazzPiano88
Originally Posted by cphollis
New cases locally here in Vero are now gaining very quickly over the last week. The core demographic is age 24-35, the primary vector appears to be bars and similar.
..
Edit: the CDC's recent opinion that -- through horizontal antibody testing -- maybe 10x as many people have had this than actual positive cases reported sort of changed my thinking on the severity of this virus. I know plenty of folks who came down with a "gnarly flu" in Dec - Feb prior to any sort of organized testing. The consequence is that if you're not part of an at-risk cohort, you're probably going to be OK.
Similar here. We have had a huge spike in Story County Iowa. Mostly in the 18-25 age group.

My County health department is saying the spike is mostly the college athletes returning for fall sports running amok. The University will do anything and everything to keep the athletic revenue stream protected being in the Big 12 so it's full steam ahead with practices for the fall. Some of it it is also the general 50% reopening..

Our cumulative cases are over 600 with 3 deaths, all from nursing homes.

Generally, deaths are still predominantly elderly, for which a vaccine will be mostly ineffective. So I believe the following will likely play out which is pretty pessimistic -- COVID-19 is here to stay and we'll need accept that herd immunity will be similar to herd immunity from the flu, and the death rate will end up being whatever we can achieve through therapeutics:

Covid Prediction - Leading epidemiologist Prof. Yehuda Carmeli (Summary: if you're under 50, you should be fine; if you're over 70, you're in trouble; between 50-70, mixed prospects)

Additionally, smoking raises the risk of death and ICU by 2.4x, so it's good to be a non smoker (The gov't won't advertise this this as we all know):

Covid-19 Smoking risk

Key quote from the Yehudi Carmeli article above:

"What we know now is that in people below the age of 50, the risk of death is two among every 1,000 people diagnosed as having the disease. But what we’ve also learned is that for every person [in that age group] diagnosed as having the disease, somewhere between 10 and 50 people were exposed to the virus and developed immunity. So the 2 per 1,000 figure [is misleading. The real mortality figure for those aged 50 and under who are exposed to the virus] is two per 10,000-50,000"


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
eric #3051283 06/27/20 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by eric
Seems very desperate to be playing gigs these days so more power to the risk takers.

I think risk varies by location. To a large extent that’s what makes this thread so interesting. I can afford to not gig and don’t feel desperate. I’m gigging because I love to play. I wouldn’t have considered it when things were really bad a short while ago (plus it wasn’t allowed). But, things are much better now where I live/gig. We’re in Phase 3 on Long Island and will very likely go to Phase 4 on July 8. If things suddenly take a turn for the worse the gigs will, without doubt, be canceled by the government. We sheltered in place, wear masks, and social distance so that we could eventually get back to it and now that time has come. I think outdoor gigging at a place where the band has room to spread out is about as risky as outdoor dining which I’ve done and felt safe doing. Of course I’m only talking about where I live. I’m 61 with no underlying conditions and have been very cautious throughout the pandemic. I never before went so long without hugging my kids, grandkids, or my mom. A very strange experience to say the least.

Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051286 06/27/20 12:41 PM
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I've been feeling a bit bad for not getting together with the band I was playing with, but now I'm not (they finally stopped asking about me coming to rehearsal a few weeks ago. I'm not sure if that means I'm out or they're just not wasting our time asking. I'll hit them up whenever *I'm* ready. If the gig is still there for me, great, if not, I'll live). Yesterday the governor shut down bars again, and reduced restaurants from 75% (which most said they couldn't do with distancing anyway) back down to 50%. I've been seeing locals advertising gigs and kept thinking, "nope!" With the announcement, I've seen lots of gigs being cancelled. It's a shame, but with ICU at or near capacity and positive test rate above 10%, something had to be done. So far the death rate seems to still be low, but we will see since that tends to lag infections. I hope it doesn't go up but only time will tell. If it doesn't go up despite the increased infections, that will be interesting.


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051290 06/27/20 01:24 PM
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Focus on deaths ignores growing evidence that this thing can damage your body (not just your lungs) and it's unknown if that damage will ever go away. Testicular and blood vessel damage for instance. Unfortunately it seems to be somewhat random in "who gets the bad effects" but young people are not immune to some of these effects. I don't have the background to understand the harder science though I'm on a couple science forums and try to keep up smile One study saw "lung opacity" in a bunch of younger patients and the docs said that when they see things like that, it can lead to lung disease later in life. Hopefully we can get a better understanding of the true risks as more studies come out.

I'm starting to get people in my friends-of-friends circle with this (frankly most of my good friends are as sequestered as I am.) One couple was basically bedridden for a month and a half; they had oxygen sensors and kept checking this, it would be pretty low and they'd call their doc--basically they were told "if you get any worse, go to the ER". So they were not on any hospital tally but were laid up for 6 weeks. They said they were so weak that some days they'd try to move around the house but just could not do it.

Last edited by Stokely; 06/27/20 01:26 PM.
Re: Bookings are coming in!
eric #3051296 06/27/20 02:00 PM
Joined: Jan 2010
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Originally Posted by eric
Seems very desperate to be playing gigs these days so more power to the risk takers.

In general, I'm with Eric philosophically. Sure, you could think about this only in terms of the risk to yourself. My feeling is, we should aim higher.

I've played a few low profile outdoor gigs because they seemed uber safe. I'll probably do more, but these gigs feel a little like driving a Maserati around the block just to keep the parts lubricated.

I don't need to gig, so it just seems like a good time to woodshed and improve my playing. Focus on other things. My biking and paddleboarding have gotten much better. Body fat is lower than it's been in about a decade. I like to think of this as a season for things other than gigging.

I've also given money to various funds supporting full time musicians. This is also a season for "giving back" to them.


Gigging: Yamaha YC61, Crumar Mojo 61, Moog Subsequent 37, Yamaha P121
Traveling: Yamaha MX49, Reface CP and CS
Home: Vintage Vibe 64
1 member likes this: Red Ranger
Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051302 06/27/20 03:06 PM
Joined: Feb 2018
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Where I'm at they opened up indoor dinning at 50% capacity. I was wondering what to do if this restaurant I played steady called me for indoors. The piano is almost under an air vent and people would be walking next to the piano 2 feet or so from me. I don't see doing it unless plastic barrier was in place. Or they moved the piano to another room in safer spot.
There are people who have the virus asymptomatic but have lung damage scans show. They also viewed this virus up close and seen that it has tentacles trying to go breaking from one cell to another.
I believe they never seen this before in a corona virus.
I need the money but this is scary stuff.

Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3051343 06/27/20 05:42 PM
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I have been LOSING bookings for the past several weeks. The NC Governor has decided not to go to phase 3 (not opening Bars, Gyms etc) which also keeps restaurants at 50% capacity. Now Face masks are mandatory state wide for at least another 3 weeks. I have lost 7 shows for he first two weeks of July and several shows in August are cancelled! This is awful for small businesses, Bars particularly. I would guess many will never recover. But the big box nationwide retailers are still racking up the money!!!


Jimmy

Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others. Groucho
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