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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046719 05/31/20 02:04 PM
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My big problem with outdoor gigs this summer (other than the normal Florida issues I mentioned!) are the bathrooms. As I said though studies are showing that the length of time plus proximity plus air conditions all add up to risks being high or low. Obviously data is still being formed.

If I do a July 15th gig at a place that is really safe for the musicians (the ones in the back at least, me!) I'll be wearing my mask while playing, if I can sing with it ok, if not I won't sing. I'll try to find a cool-looking rock'n'roll mask grin I'll be peeing in the car most likely--well, in a container in the car. The bathrooms in that place require walking a tight maze of tables and it's a tiny bathroom where you literally touch anyone else in there to get to a urinal. Fuck no.

The Vox vid showed how even light outdoor breezes will disperse the droplets and you don't get the concentration. Indoors is a different story. Air movement is actually a good thing as long as it isn't an AC blowing across in one static direction (this is how they think many people in a Wuhan restaurant got sick from one person, up to 14 feet away.) In that restaurant they were sitting there in one spot just breathing in the droplets over a long period of time. It doesn't seem to be a case where a tiny amount of virus is guaranteed to get you, rather your body may actually fight it off and form antibodies if that happens.

This is why I find Japan so interesting. Their subways have been running the whole time. Their schools have not shut down. EVERYONE wears masks according to a friend or two I have there. Nobody talks (this is partly a cultural thing of politeness, but also that right now it's risky to do so.) They have a sense of society, and frankly don't want to be "shamed" for being different (which is a mixed bag obviously...in this case, it's working out for them in this first wave.)

Edit: just got word that an indoor June 20 gig is "back on" for the band. It's one of the better joints we play at...this could be my ouster from the band as no way I'm going to play ANY indoor gig. So be it. They can play without me, but normally I would never be unprofessional and skip out on a gig where it was booked as a 5-piece. But this is a different situation. I've had to stop my kids from doing all the activities that they like with their friends, my wife is at-risk...so me going out and playing rock star is out. On the positive side, more money for people that need it like our drummer and guitarist.

Last edited by Stokely; 05/31/20 02:22 PM.
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Re: Bookings are coming in!
HammondDave #3046722 05/31/20 02:30 PM
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Originally Posted by HammondDave
Don’t you cats keep up with the news? They just discovered that this virus is essentially airborne. It has the ability to stick to dust particles floating in the air and be viable for up to 20 minutes. That 6’ social distancing guideline is now bogus. I would not play an indoor or outdoor venue even if you paid me...

I think many of us listen/should listen to medical science and should be aware of the community spread dangers of Covid 19.

And the associated risk and health factors.

Social distancing is a forgotten practice here in Contra costa county. This is obvious at grocery stores, and where ever people gather.

Even in my neighborhood, [ an 800 home sub division ] there was a certain percentage of families, that ignore Covid 19.

They don't wear masks, they have public block parties every week end, act like its 2019.

IOW, they don't giveas%$.

My wife and I , and other neighbors see this and all we can do is keep our distance.

In our populous county, we have 1,426 reported cases, and 20 new cases in the past 24 hours.

An average 1.4% infection/growth rate per day.

Facts can be inconvenient to some. I have seen enough pandemic misery and suffering locally,

We have a long ways to go, IMO. Covid 19 is mutating if you watch the news.

Last edited by GregC; 05/31/20 10:11 PM.
Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046747 05/31/20 06:21 PM
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My question to all of you who are returning to live gigs, has the venue insisted that you get tested? If not, that is a pretty clear message that they don't give a crap about the safety of their employees, or their customers.

Last edited by HammondDave; 05/31/20 06:22 PM.

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Re: Bookings are coming in!
J. Dan #3046749 05/31/20 06:28 PM
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J. Dan... No, it sounds like it may be YOUR problem. Unless you think that scientists and medical professionals from the National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, UCLA and Princeton University don't know what they are talking about. Apparently it spreads very well outside in windy conditions... especially where people are talking loudly... hmmm.

You may wish to read THIS

and THIS

and THIS

Last edited by HammondDave; 05/31/20 07:06 PM.

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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046768 05/31/20 08:21 PM
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That settles it, then. Areas with beaches and parks and hiking trails and people enjoying their escape from confinement- FL, CA, GA, the Smokies- are going to see massive spikes in cases, while areas where the faithful shelter indoors will see the virus slowly die out. If this turns out not to be the case, it may be because virus droplets spread outside on the wind are dispersed to the point where they don't carry near the viral load of respiratory droplets expelled by people indoors. The subheading below the title of article #2 seems to allow for that.

I'll ponder this further while on the track this afternoon. I'm not going to risk stroke and coronary disease because I'm terrified to leave the house and get activity- I've heard those 2 things kill a lot of people my age.

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Re: Bookings are coming in!
HammondDave #3046793 05/31/20 11:05 PM
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Originally Posted by HammondDave
J. Dan... No, it sounds like it may be YOUR problem. Unless you think that scientists and medical professionals from the National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, UCLA and Princeton University don't know what they are talking about. Apparently it spreads very well outside in windy conditions... especially where people are talking loudly... hmmm.

You may wish to read THIS

and THIS

and THIS

Yep, I've seen these and similar. My favorite pandemic p0rn was the CDC discovery that "CoVID-19" can be detected on surfaces after 20 hours. Well, maybe it wasn't viable, but IT COULD BE DETECTED!!! Not to diss on the CDC, they came clean with a data dump that basically says if you're not really old and/or not living in assisted living, yeah this has the same fatality rate as -- well -- a nasty flu season. So let's protect the really old folks.

Look, any medical professional will tell you -- dosages matter. Three random particles wafting through the air are about as dangerous as -- well, nothing? The choir practice was insightful is it demonstrates what happens when people get a mega-dose over a prolonged period. I have read it was a small room with really poor ventilation, purely anecdotal. Sounds unpleasant.

Documented cases of outdoor spread are near-zero. That being said, if anyone feels unsafe, please stay home.

Last edited by cphollis; 05/31/20 11:10 PM. Reason: more thoughts?

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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046795 05/31/20 11:17 PM
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Just got back from an outdoor adventure with my 7 yo son: kite flying, hill climbing, running around a soccer field. Kids don't social distance, doesn't matter what you tell them. We got close to lots of people, couldn't avoid it. It's either that or stay home, which would probably cause serious psychological damage to all of us.

Point is, if I'm doing that, I might as well be playing outdoor gigs., Next one is in 5 days..


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046806 06/01/20 02:04 AM
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I've had similar thoughts...that if my kids are out and about (right now they are not, but they will likely be back in school in a couple months) then I might as well do my thing. But then I consider that whatever risk I have from the kids, I'm just adding to it. For me that's what this is about, minimizing risk.

I get that about the damage, my kids are older and I still see an effect on them. For one thing they are spending more time on the computer than I'd like but at least they are being social with some gaming friends.

Band is ok with me taking an indefinite hiatus. This sucks for us because we settled finally in with a good lineup of chill drama-less people that all get along, then bam this hits.

Last edited by Stokely; 06/01/20 02:06 AM.
Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046810 06/01/20 02:14 AM
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Originally Posted by cphollis
Documented cases of outdoor spread are near-zero.

Where did you get this data point from?


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
Stokely #3046828 06/01/20 03:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Stokely
Band is ok with me taking an indefinite hiatus. This sucks for us because we settled finally in with a good lineup of chill drama-less people that all get along, then bam this hits.

I can sure relate to that. Our band was primed for a great summer with weddings, private parties, corporate gigs all rolling in. It's the best band I've ever been in- really great players, easy going personalities, no drama... basically a dream come true.

Then our drummer got restationed (USAF) and had to leave the band. Big loss as he brought a lot to the table, but we couldn't believe our luck when a friend of mine (who's also a full-time pro) was available & wanted to step in. Then BAM! Corona hit before the band even got to meet him, never mind play together. We did a zoom call & personalities seemed to gel together well, but everyone's basically trusting me on the music side of things. (I'm not worried- I think he'll be a great fit)

So now we're in limbo, with most gigs postponed or canceled altogether. Our singer thinks the virus is a hoax and can't wait to get back out there. Me? I'm not really interested in gigging until we have a lot more answers about what we're dealing with. I guess I would leave the band so as not to hold them back if it came to that, but that'd put the drummer (& the band) in an awkward situation. Plus I'm a founding member with a lot of responsibility (keyboards, guitar, backing vocals, run sound, organize rehearsals, etc.). Not that I can't be replaced- it'd just be a lot to dump on them. (I don't want to quit anyway! I love this band & can't wait to get to play together again with our new drummer, but good health is the most important thing.) We'll see what shakes out.

Re: Bookings are coming in!
MathOfInsects #3046864 06/01/20 11:57 AM
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MathOfInsects--a quick search of Google News yielded the following:

https://www.businessinsider.com/risk-of-coronavirus-transmission-lower-outdoors-evidence-2020-5
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/us/coronavirus-what-to-do-outside.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/health/coronavirus-transmission-dose.html
https://www.healthline.com/health-n...9-probably-not#Air-conditioning-concerns
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/30/health/running-exercising-masks-coronavirus.html

My conclusion? When people bunch up close together, risk of transmission increases. More likely to happen indoors, less likely to happen outdoors. There's a related thread in the reporting that claims the high number of asymptomatic people (~35% per CDC) might be a result of a large number of low viral dosages. AFAIK, playing outdoors on a hot, sunny day with plenty of UVB and a breeze would pose a negligible risk -- as compared to shopping for groceries.


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046867 06/01/20 01:05 PM
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I think this is the Chinese study I read about:

https://usa.streetsblog.org/2020/05/15/chinese-study-finds-outdoor-activities-safe-from-covid/

Quote
In a study of 1,245 cases that occurred across China from January 4 to February 11, only two cases were traced to contact with an infected person out of doors. Both cases arose from a single outbreak.

The risk is not zero of course. More and more, studies are saying that amount matters, and that is a big reason the outdoors is so much safer, air currents go in all directions and disperse droplets quickly.

Honestly, if someone in my band thought this was a "hoax" I'd completely disregard their opinion. That is ludicrous. We can argue about how bad it might be in a particular area, and whether it is safe to resume activites, but a "hoax"? That's fake news propaganda conspiracy garbage and you'd have to be a moron to believe it. There's people that believe 5G cell phone towers spread it. People are idiots. If you said "this is a hoax" to someone who lost a friend or family member to this you'd rightly get your ass beat.

Last edited by Stokely; 06/01/20 01:07 PM.
Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046868 06/01/20 01:20 PM
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A worldwide "hoax?" How can anyone believe that so many countries can participate in the same "hoax?" To me that's a ridiculous thought. I personally know people who think it's a "hoax" who seem to be intelligent/rational people otherwise. I'm perplexed.

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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046869 06/01/20 01:30 PM
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It's not a hoax, but there was a lot of misinformation and delays of providing information that caused some people to distrust official sources. I can't say I blame them. Add to that different states (and up here different provinces) enacting different guidelines where some of them appeared to have no basis in medicine or science and seemed to unfairly punish some businesses more than others. I won't bother with examples, there are dozens of them that make no sense and yet people were expected to blindly accept whgat they were told.

Re: Bookings are coming in!
Red Ranger #3046870 06/01/20 01:30 PM
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Red Ranger... It sounds like your singer may be a moron.

Last edited by HammondDave; 06/01/20 01:32 PM.

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Re: Bookings are coming in!
Al Quinn #3046871 06/01/20 01:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Al Quinn
A worldwide "hoax?" How can anyone believe that so many countries can participate in the same "hoax?" To me that's a ridiculous thought. I personally know people who think it's a "hoax" who seem to be intelligent/rational people otherwise. I'm perplexed.

Agreed. I'm also perplexed by the flat earthers.


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046873 06/01/20 01:41 PM
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Of course the earth is flat, otherwise the 5G / COVID transmission towers would fall over....


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046880 06/01/20 02:13 PM
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My theory: most people calling it a hoax don't really believe that. Calling it a hoax (i.e., disbelieving pointy-headed experts) is easier on the conscience than saying it is primarily affecting people I don't care about.

But even among reasonable, fair-minded, intellectually honest people there is plenty of room for debate about risks. What worries me most re: gigging is the subject of the other current KC virus thread. It's the scenario where, despite the best intentions of the band and the venue, people don't follow the rules and recklessness ensues. I think that's less likely to happen outdoors in daylight, and certainly less likely in proportion to the average age of the audience (older=safer).

I've done a couple outdoor shows. The average age of the audience was probably 45. They wore masks and distanced from each other. It was sunny and warm. Probably less risky than shopping for groceries. In my world, this is the future of live performance for the foreseeable future.


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046881 06/01/20 02:25 PM
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Originally Posted by cphollis
My conclusion?

Actually, I was asking about the declarative statement that "Documented cases of outdoor spread are near-zero." That sounded like you had data that stated this. If you do, can you link that data?


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046883 06/01/20 02:38 PM
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There were several links above, I posted one myself.

I agree, the hoax thing is just simplistic good-vs-evil thinking. Some people don't understand (or care to understand) that science changes based on the facts. I personally have ignored political figures from the very start because they have a vested interest in not being transparent. Being transparent often means you aren't re-elected. It is true that the scientific evidence has switched around a few times--that's what happens with a novel disease (ie, new) in a pandemic of a scale nobody has seen for 100 years. In today's world you aren't allowed to change your mind about things, at best it means you are "wishy washy" and at worst you have some nefarious agenda and you started taking money from someone yada yada.

If there is an agenda we should be looking hard at--just look at how much money has been made and by whom since this pandemic started. There are certainly some who have made out VERY well indeed.

Anyone saying "hoax" is not just a moron, they are an asshole. They need to go visit some families of the 100,000+ Americans who have died from the hoax.

Science aside, we can easily look around the world and see what appears to be working....and what has not worked. Yet America is resolved to ignore all of it and go our own way, so be it.

Last edited by Stokely; 06/01/20 02:39 PM.
Re: Bookings are coming in!
Stokely #3046889 06/01/20 03:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Stokely
There were several links above, I posted one myself.

I saw, thanks. Those links were about the general idea that outside is safer than inside. There is no question about this. But that's because it's easier to stay distant outside, not because of any other inherent difference in the physics and biology involved. I was asking about the statement that "documented cases of outdoor spread are near-zero." That's a very specific statement and I was curious if it came from hard data or was someone's personal assumption or hope. After all, the prevailing assumption from the beginning was that this was initially acquired or spread at an outdoor market.

Your link does address this, sort of, but it focuses on the pre-pandemic stage back in January during which only 1,200 cases had arisen in China. Since indeed "science changes based on the facts," I would be more curious to see data gathered after we have come 6,000,000 cases in--that is, now--than after the first 1,000 to have appeared, back then. Do you know if any recent support exists for that "near-zero" claim? Even if that same percentage held constant, that would still be 10,000 cases now, which does not seem like "near-zero." But did it stay constant? China famously locked its population down almost immediately, so the idea that there was not much outdoor spread during that time period would not be surprising--but doesn't tell us anything about what might be true for us, now.

I am asking because a very quick google search would reveal entire clusters of infection that presumably resulted from outside gatherings. Pool parties, spring break gatherings, outdoor "protests." These all fall after the range of that China study, because the entire pandemic falls after that time period. So if someone has seen credible evidence that this was NOT the case, that would be notable, and I'd like to see the source. I really do take the effort to traffic in data rather than assumption or fear very seriously, and want to know the relevant data surrounding this claim, if it exists. It would certainly help triage which activities I am comfortable engaging in with my kids right now, for one thing...


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046892 06/01/20 03:33 PM
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I probably oversimplified by saying she thinks it's a hoax. To clarify, she thinks it's totally overplayed by the media, that the death count is greatly exaggerated, businesses didn't need to be shut down, and so on. Not that I agree with any of that, but she's not an evil person- perhaps just an easy mark for misinformation & conspiracy theories. Normally all that stuff stays outside the door since we're a working band, not in it for socializing. We keep it professional & respectful, and everyone gets along fine.

The virus brings a different dynamic, as one person's approach affects everyone else.

The cool thing is I am certain she'll be respectful if we want to wait longer than she does to go out & play, but I might end up as the last holdout.

Re: Bookings are coming in!
Adan #3046901 06/01/20 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Adan
What worries me most re: gigging is the subject of the other current KC virus thread. It's the scenario where, despite the best intentions of the band and the venue, people don't follow the rules and recklessness ensues. I think that's less likely to happen outdoors in daylight, and certainly less likely in proportion to the average age of the audience (older=safer).

I've done a couple outdoor shows. The average age of the audience was probably 45. They wore masks and distanced from each other. It was sunny and warm. Probably less risky than shopping for groceries. In my world, this is the future of live performance for the foreseeable future.

I've been thinking about that scenario myself- something like a private party outdoors in a backyard. We could put terms in the contract requiring spacing and masks, etc. These are all easy things to scope out before setting up. But what if it goes sideways DURING the show when people start getting tipsy & stupid? You only need to catch the virus once.

Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046902 06/01/20 03:56 PM
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We all have family members, friends, band mates, etc. who have varying opinions on what's happening (largely due to their own experiences and how varied their sources of information are). I have a sibling who lives in a much more rural area than I do who is 100% in on it being overblown and no worse than other viruses that come through every year - "certainly no more people than we lose from cancer every year". Where I live, that isn't my experience, so we don't bother to discuss. I wear my mask when in contact with others and refrain from exposure for me and my immediate family because we're in a hot spot. Yes, I'd love to eat out and sit down with others, laugh in each other's faces, sing harmonies, let the kids play in reality rather than virtually. But we're not there yet. Mid June will come, and July and things will get better for all of us. When this crap went down in 1918 it had dramatic affect on everything (not to mention a second wave) that dragged it on for two years.


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Re: Bookings are coming in!
MathOfInsects #3046908 06/01/20 04:47 PM
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Originally Posted by MathOfInsects
Originally Posted by Stokely
There were several links above, I posted one myself.

I saw, thanks. Those links were about the general idea that outside is safer than inside. There is no question about this. But that's because it's easier to stay distant outside, not because of any other inherent difference in the physics and biology involved. I was asking about the statement that "documented cases of outdoor spread are near-zero." That's a very specific statement and I was curious if it came from hard data or was someone's personal assumption or hope. After all, the prevailing assumption from the beginning was that this was initially acquired or spread at an outdoor market.

Your link does address this, sort of, but it focuses on the pre-pandemic stage back in January during which only 1,200 cases had arisen in China. Since indeed "science changes based on the facts," I would be more curious to see data gathered after we have come 6,000,000 cases in--that is, now--than after the first 1,000 to have appeared, back then. Do you know if any recent support exists for that "near-zero" claim? Even if that same percentage held constant, that would still be 10,000 cases now, which does not seem like "near-zero." But did it stay constant? China famously locked its population down almost immediately, so the idea that there was not much outdoor spread during that time period would not be surprising--but doesn't tell us anything about what might be true for us, now.

I am asking because a very quick google search would reveal entire clusters of infection that presumably resulted from outside gatherings. Pool parties, spring break gatherings, outdoor "protests." These all fall after the range of that China study, because the entire pandemic falls after that time period. So if someone has seen credible evidence that this was NOT the case, that would be notable, and I'd like to see the source. I really do take the effort to traffic in data rather than assumption or fear very seriously, and want to know the relevant data surrounding this claim, if it exists. It would certainly help triage which activities I am comfortable engaging in with my kids right now, for one thing...

I don't know, but would be equally interested to find out.

I do treat outdoor gatherings pretty much like indoor ones--I don't do them. I'd go to the beach as long as I could stay away from people (pretty easy here) and be upwind of everyone (also easy, usually get a breeze from the ocean to the land.) I'd let my kids go to the park and kick a ball around, maybe with their friends (with some hand-washing/sanitizer present).

I haven't seen much evidence of spread outdoors--but I also haven't seen studies saying it can't be spread, so with lack of uncertainty I'd err on the side of caution.

I'm looking more at Japan right now than China. They are following a course that at least would be possible here in the States (not likely, but possible). No way the Chinese approach would fly here. In both cases the population bought in to masks, but Japan is going about their business while China did quarantines, and mostly voluntarily despite what we may think of their government (my wife is from there and knows a lot of people still over there.)

Likewise for it spreading through touching a surface. Has there been a single documented case? Again though, even if not, that doesn't mean it isn't happening or couldn't happen, because we know viruses can spread that way.

As far as the singer and the hoax...let's just say that while there are people who believe the death total from covid is over-counted, there are those who believe it is being under-counted, and by a big margin. I'm one of them. Regardless it gets really hard to be that specific. Excess total deaths vs past years might be the most solid number we can use, though these lag by up to eight weeks.

Last edited by Stokely; 06/01/20 04:53 PM.
Re: Bookings are coming in!
Adan #3046910 06/01/20 04:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Adan
My theory: most people calling it a hoax don't really believe that. Calling it a hoax (i.e., disbelieving pointy-headed experts) is easier on the conscience than saying it is primarily affecting people I don't care about.

Unfortunately, very very true.


Eric
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Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046928 06/01/20 07:12 PM
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We did our first live-streaming show last Friday. Big stage, large venue, easy to social distance. The only people in attendance were the band (n = 6), sound/lights/video production staff (n = 4), and venue staff (n = 2). I wore a mask until down beat. Show was fun and a success.

We were scheduled to play a recently-booked gig tomorrow night in an airplane hanger at a local regional airport (social distancing theoretically possible), but just found out this morning it has been cancelled. My immediate thought was that folks reconsidered because of COVID but our band leader advised it was due to the riots taking place around here. World gone wild.


"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing."
- George Bernard Shaw
Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046934 06/01/20 07:28 PM
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There are calls to bring out the national guard to "dominate" the streets, and of course the riots themselves bring out opportunists...if I had a gig anywhere near a spot like that I'd avoid it..well, like the plague (sorry)...

Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3046937 06/01/20 07:41 PM
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J
Has been warned....
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I haven't tuned in to watch even 1 streamed concert or gig. It seems the same as putting on a youtube video which I only do if it's like Nazareth at rockplast in 1980 or something I would have went to see when I was 17.

It's like the difference between a Grateful Dead concert or video of the same gig. Ask a real deadhead if you dont get it. One is electrifying energy, the other is just some good tunes.

Re: Bookings are coming in!
cphollis #3047323 06/03/20 11:54 PM
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Thought I'd give you all an update on our upcoming first gig in the sequence. I see it as a preview of things to come ...

This is an outdoor venue, run by the town. Free entertainment outdoors on the weekend for retirees. There's a burger grill and partial bar service, it's a nice venue at the local park. Pays relatively well, so a coveted gig in town.

Now, they've constructed a barrier surrounding the space. You have to get a (free) ticket for each of the limited number of tables. Masks are required to enter, but may be removed once seated. They now have servers that come to your table vs. queueing. Dancing is discouraged, but not prohibited (?).

They tried this last weekend and were generally successful enforcing distancing within the perimeter. The crowd was said to be enthusiastic, which is good.

However, immediately outside the perimeter there was a vastly larger crowd, with lawn chairs, coolers and doing whatever they damn well pleased, all bunched up against the perimeter. They were hooting and hollering. Good for them.

We're expecting the same deal when we play.


Life is too short to be playing bad music.

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