Jump to content


Please note: You can easily log in to MPN using your Facebook account!

OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?


Recommended Posts

The non-essential business closure is still set to expire sometime this month in my state, not 18 months from now. So I guess as far as man on the street is concerned we will "reopen" this month.

 

Anyway, a coalition of music venues formed to fight for their share of federal funding.

https://www.rollingstone.com/pro/news/independent-venues-danger-closing-covid-niva-995044/?fbclid=IwAR2N4HmySR4sQ8iVeP_dP-9G-z_-8KyPH9-O2erjAgNXkR-OzrjD_JFnFuw

Link to comment
Share on other sites



  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Like I've written many times already, we have to get the country back to work asap or this crap is just going to pile up deeper and deeper until we're in another depression. That means living with the risks of the virus vaccine or no vaccine, simple as that.

 

No, it doesn't. It means that we should immediately adopt a government response like Germany's, which is like the response that got it out of the last recession faster than any other country (although it's probably too late for us to do what we should have been doing all along, so the point is likely moot). Current unemployment is Germany is 3.2%, and it's projected to rise to 3.9% by the end of the year. Those are not typos. Compare that to the current US unemployment rate.

 

Although the situation isn't as rosy as depicted in this LA Times article, the reality is that the Germans are simply better at not having a dysfunctional government, compared to the US, UK, and others.

 

There are two main reasons why this worked in Germany (and could have worked in the United States, had people on both sides of the aisle not been so focused on their political agendas). The first is a more streamlined, efficient, and less expensive way of compensating people who are unemployed so that a) they don't starve, and b) are available to go back to their same jobs as the economy improves. This keeps them from crossing over into poverty, encourages people not to switch jobs, ensures a ready labor force "on standby" that doesn't need to be retrained, and minimizes unemployment.

 

Second, Germany is a Federalist system where, like the US, the central government is accountable to 16 government bodies that are very much like our states. Initially, they were as disorganized as we were. But instead of plunging further into the chaos, blame, and disunity that happened here, they all started working toward being on the same page. Although Angela Merkel has made her share of missteps in the past, she rose to the occasion and represented a rational, unifying voice (she also has a scientific background, which turned out to be very useful in this situation so she could assess tradeoffs intelligently). Fortunately, Germany got it together, albeit just in time (and with mistakes along the way). So in a way, they had the best of both worlds - state's rights that avoided an overly-powerful government response, but like a good government response, acted with one voice based on what was in the best interest for the country's citizens.

 

There are still holes in the system. Germany's medical system is solid and so far has weathered the storm, but it is being stretched to the limits. Germans don't always follow social distancing and such. Testing is not where it should be, and there's no way they can insulate themselves totally if the rest of the world falls apart. Also, their economic solution is not one that can go on for year after year, which it was imperative that they minimize the effects of the virus as early in the process as possible.

 

But the bottom line is simple: Germany figured it out. We didn't, and now we're paying the price.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the reality is that the Germans are simply better

 

danke schoen :)

 

But the bottom line is simple: Germany figured it out. We didn't, and now we're paying the price.

 

Germany went from ruins after WW II to become the economic powerhouse of Europe in only 50 years. Germans are very good at figuring things out

:nopity:
Link to comment
Share on other sites

And no, I didn't get the stimulus check i reported last post, it was a scam in a gov't looking envelope.

 

So while the Lakers, Ruth Chris, Trump Hotels, and other big corporations got money (some were embarrassed into giving it back) on day 53 of forced unemployment I have yet to receive either the promised Stimulus check or any Unemployment money. Zero, nada, zilch -- not one red cent.

 

Florida tea bag Republican former Rick Scott's system is doing exactly what it is supposed to do, deny people unemployment. We made International news, the conservative BBC and the liberal Guardian as having the worst unemployment in the industrialized world. Actual numbers of less than 20% get approved.

 

Of course that means I won't get the federal unemployment money either.

I don't know how I did it, but we got the stimulus amount AND I have received my first unemployment deposit, which included both the Texas amount and the $600/wk Federal amount from the CARES Act. I was afraid with the gov here also "opening" the state that they might have denied it, but so far they didn't. I don't know if that will change as he opens more places up.

"I'm so crazy, I don't know this is impossible! Hoo hoo!" - Daffy Duck

 

"The good news is that once you start piano you never have to worry about getting laid again. More time to practice!" - MOI

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Like I've written many times already, we have to get the country back to work asap or this crap is just going to pile up deeper and deeper until we're in another depression. That means living with the risks of the virus vaccine or no vaccine, simple as that.

 

[snip]

 

But the bottom line is simple: Germany figured it out. We didn't, and now we're paying the price.

I haven't read that article yet but I will.

 

My issue with the "we have to get America back to work" rhetoric is this. Spending was in decline before states started shutting down. People were already reacting to the threat of the virus and not going out. And now, with states reopening, people still aren't going back out. Spending is still down. You can open everything back up, but without people being confident that there isn't a risk by going out, they won't go. Even states that didn't have stay home orders saw significant drops in spending.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/upshot/pandemic-economy-government-orders.html

"I'm so crazy, I don't know this is impossible! Hoo hoo!" - Daffy Duck

 

"The good news is that once you start piano you never have to worry about getting laid again. More time to practice!" - MOI

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Germany went from ruins after WW II to become the economic powerhouse of Europe in only 50 years. Germans are very good at figuring things out

 

But to be fair, the Marshall plan factored into that - the US spent 5% of its gross domestic product of that time on rebuilding Europe, which much of that going to Germany because it was seen as the country that would be of the most strategic importance in the years ahead. This was an excellent example of strategic largesse.

 

Also to be fair, Europe's superior safety net is financed by higher taxes. You don't get something for nothing. European societies have by and large chosen health care, education, and social safety nets as more important than lower tax rates.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's what's going to happen: some areas will go back to "Norma", the new normal being accepting the fact that there is a new virus and a new source of death, and musicians witll thrive.

 

Other places, people will continue to live in fear and the brown shirts will shame, chastise, and attack those who don't fall in line, and the music will die. (Cue American Pie).

Dan

 

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

<...snip...>I don't know how I did it, but we got the stimulus amount AND I have received my first unemployment deposit, which included both the Texas amount and the $600/wk Federal amount from the CARES Act. I was afraid with the gov here also "opening" the state that they might have denied it, but so far they didn't. I don't know if that will change as he opens more places up.

 

Good for you.

 

Florida made news in UK newspapers as having the most difficult to get unemployment in the country. They said that fewer than 20% who apply actually receive it, that keeps the numbers low as those who don't get it are not counted as unemployed. But FL also gives giant tax breaks and corporate welfare to big biz.

 

But Florida does have a nice climate.

 

So as I'm isolating with my sweetheart I am thankful we paid off the mortgage, lived below our means enough to have a buffer savings account, and other than minimal car payments we have zero debt. the sun is out, I live on a half acre near between an ocean lagoon and a protected wetlands area, there's food in the fridge, my best buddy/wife with me, so life is good. We both miss gigging but are thankful we aren't being exposed to the plague except for our every other week grocery store visits.

 

The place we've played once a week for 12 years now is advertising our return in October on their website. Since it's outdoors in a marina we usually take off from Mid-May to Mid-October as that's our rainy season. We lost March, April and half of May, but if they can hang in there, we'll be gigging in October. An RV park that usually hires us a couple of times a month all year long is not talking about reopening the restaurant -- there is no way they can make a profit at 1/4 capacity, but as soon as this emergency is over - whenever that is - they told us they want us back.

 

I'm sure when the future means we will have to adapt to the new normal. So we trust that we will be able to do so, we've ridden a lot of changes in the biz so far. We want to be an early adapter, as those are the ones with the best chance of survival.

 

Insights and incites by Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

Link to comment
Share on other sites

?

Here's what's going to happen: some areas will go back to "Norma", the new normal being accepting the fact that there is a new virus and a new source of death, and musicians witll thrive.

 

Other places, people will continue to live in fear and the brown shirts will shame, chastise, and attack those who don't fall in line, and the music will die. (Cue American Pie).

 

Musicians may not be thriving now, but music is. Sales of music-making gear for people to make music at home are soaring. If anything, there's more active participation in making music than ever before. A mystery virus sure hasn't done any favors for sound engineers, touring acts, or concert promoters, but it's the biggest boost the music industry has had in years - if not decades.

 

As to people continuing to live in fear, that all hinges on what happens next, not so much what's happened in the past. There are new aspects of the virus being discovered every day. I had a long talk with someone in the medical profession who's part of the front lines in Massachusetts. It's starting to seem that genetics may play a role in propensity for getting destroyed by the disease instead of just having "a cold." Also, it attacks the heart, not just the lungs, and can do so without attacking the lungs or showing other symptoms. It's turning out some people who died surprisingly from heart attacks (i.e., they didn't have a history of heart issues) almost certainly died from the damage Covid-19 did to their hearts. 75 kids have now had symptoms caused by Covid-19 infections, along with several deaths and increasing numbers, so we can't even count on the "well at least it only kills old people" thing. How far will issues with kids spread? We don't know. We don't know how many heart attacks relate to Covid-19. We don't know why some people are not affected by it at all. We don't know nothin.'

 

Also, at some hospitals, lack of ventilators isn't a problem. Great, right? Yes, except now a shortage of dialysis machines is, because it turns out that Covid-19 can cause major liver damage - again, something that wasn't recognized initially. And people aren't just afraid they might get it, because it's so contagious, they're afraid that going out into the world might unknowingly cause other people to get it.

 

These kinds of "guess what? it's worse than you thought" revelations are what keep doctors awake at night. I think people could accept "a new virus and a new source of death" more readily if it was more quantifiable and better understood. People need to know what they're dealing with. But at the moment, we're apparently still in "WTF is this thing?" mode.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As to people continuing to live in fear, that all hinges on what happens next, not so much what's happened in the past. There are new aspects of the virus being discovered every day. I had a long talk with someone in the medical profession who's part of the front lines in Massachusetts. It's starting to seem that genetics may play a role in propensity for getting destroyed by the disease instead of just having "a cold." Also, it attacks the heart, not just the lungs, and can do so without attacking the lungs or showing other symptoms. It's turning out some people who died surprisingly from heart attacks (i.e., they didn't have a history of heart issues) almost certainly died from the damage Covid-19 did to their hearts. 75 kids have now had symptoms caused by Covid-19 infections, along with several deaths and increasing numbers, so we can't even count on the "well at least it only kills old people" thing. How far will issues with kids spread? We don't know. We don't know how many heart attacks relate to Covid-19. We don't know why some people are not affected by it at all. We don't know nothin.'

 

Also, at some hospitals, lack of ventilators isn't a problem. Great, right? Yes, except now a shortage of dialysis machines is, because it turns out that Covid-19 can cause major liver damage - again, something that wasn't recognized initially. And people aren't just afraid they might get it, because it's so contagious, they're afraid that going out into the world might unknowingly cause other people to get it.

 

These kinds of "guess what? it's worse than you thought" revelations are what keep doctors awake at night. I think people could accept "a new virus and a new source of death" more readily if it was more quantifiable and better understood. People need to know what they're dealing with. But at the moment, we're apparently still in "WTF is this thing?" mode.

 

In the podcast I posted, the ER doctor and his colleagues bring up a theory that COVID-19 might be attacking the circulatory system rather than the lungs.

 

Post from a community ER physician expressing his frustration - in a non political way - about myth of COVID-19 being "just another flu", with somewhat graphic descriptions of what he's seen in his line of work:

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86339?fbclid=IwAR3bRFB-3RrbW9jAyy-NKhJatjB35n5eQTnP7qkLQiWaaZj2tN1DN8yAb9Y

 

And people aren't just afraid they might get it, because it's so contagious, they're afraid that going out into the world might unknowingly cause other people to get it.

 

Yup! While I take precautions for myself, the reason I try to adhere to the 6-foot rule and all that is to protect other people from me. Some people in my area don't seem to get it, but most do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another sobering thought: being a victim of your own success. Because Germany kept things under control and didn't have the same kind of problems other European countries endured, now various agitators are wanting to have everything opened up, and doctors are afraid that a second, more intense wave will happen as a result. They seem to feel the virus is being managed, not controlled...big difference. Once the rabid dog is let out of the cage, it will bite people again.

 

What happens after the limited openings will tell us a lot. It looks like there are two hypotheticals: infections/deaths will come raging back with a vengeance, or they'll just keep meandering along for a while they way they are now because opening up won't make a significant difference one way or another. And there's always the heat+humidity/miracle vaccine option...outside chance to be sure, but possible.

 

We'll see what happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And the US Government is completely dysfunctional. I've been out of work since 3/17, and never received a stimulus check. I've applied for unemployment twice, the unemployment gig workers are supposed to get, and because I don't have pay stubs from an employer, I've been denied twice. I tried to reapply, the system says click the "update" button and there is none in Firefox, Chrome, Opera or Edge. Now it says I'm not even registered.

 

That means I don't get the CARES act money. Hmm the Lakers did, Trump Hotels did, Ruth Chris' did and plenty of others. Yes I know some were embarrassed to give it back, but what about the ones that haven't been exposed?

 

I call my state representative and they assure me they are doing all they can, and when questioned, admit the last GOP administration created an unemployment system designed to fail. They figured starving constituents were preferable to high unemployment figures.

 

Meanwhile I read in mid-stream papers that huge corporations are getting CARES bailout money.

 

I've been on the phone and Internet for 4 hours now.

 

The system is designed to help the rich while starving the rest. I've hit a brick wall, and the people we elected to help us are only helping the richest of the rich.

 

What do I do next? As the political party in charge that first denied the pandemic for 6 weeks while they sold their stocks and denies help to the little guys in need, I hereby vow to never-ever vote republican again. Definitely the greater of the two evils in my mind.

 

The ones who issued the "I can't work" order are ignoring all my pleas for help.

 

Sorry to be political, but that is the first 'what's next' for me.

 

In addition, I'll do my best to adapt to the changes.

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What do I do next? As the political party in charge that first denied the pandemic for 6 weeks while they sold their stocks and denies help to the little guys in need, I hereby vow to never-ever vote republican again. Definitely the greater of the two evils in my mind.

You do know that the Democrats control the house and are "in charge"?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What do I do next? As the political party in charge that first denied the pandemic for 6 weeks while they sold their stocks and denies help to the little guys in need, I hereby vow to never-ever vote republican again. Definitely the greater of the two evils in my mind.

You do know that the Democrats control the house and are "in charge"?

 

Even from afar I understand that there's the Senate and the President's power of veto.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What do I do next? As the political party in charge that first denied the pandemic for 6 weeks while they sold their stocks and denies help to the little guys in need, I hereby vow to never-ever vote republican again. Definitely the greater of the two evils in my mind.

You do know that the Democrats control the house and are "in charge"?

 

Even from afar I understand that there's the Senate and the President's power of veto.....

Then you would also understand that whatever the Senate passed had to be first passed in the house. It's fine to blame people, but blame the right ones.

 

Anyway...I was already more political than I wanted to be. My apologies. I'll stick to music topics going forward :rawk:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Too political. If this was soccer, there would be a yellow card. (For those not familiar with soccer, a yellow card is a warning about unsportsmanlike conduct. A player who receives a yellow card may continue to play in the match, but receiving two yellow cards is equivalent to receiving a red card. If a player receives a red card, he is immediately dismissed from the field of play and can not play any more in the match.) Notes, I understand your frustration, but I don't know anyone who isn't frustrated on some level.

 

My position is that both parties are corrupt, and beholden to those with power and money. Their differentiation is being beholden to different groups of people. So, there's no point in discussing Democrats and Republicans. The only things we can do to bring about change are:

 

* Become active politically, especially in local politics.

* Register opinions with elected representatives.

* Research what's happening, rather than depend on current news sources, so that we understand the various nuances of situations and form our own opinions based on data, not the opinions of others.

 

* Optional: Try to make sure our actions contribute to creating a kinder world, which bypasses politics altogether.

 

This thread has been useful because there has been a great deal of factual data and links to useful material. Also, it's important to think about the ramifications of how we, as musicians, can accommodate the current climate.

 

But for the reasons given above, I am not interested in talk about Democrats and Republicans. There's enough blame to go around for 4,000 threads. I am more interested in solutions and data. It might be a good idea to re-read the first post to understand the rationale behind starting this thread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I made a comment in a discussion today about 'a second wave' and the person I was speaking with made the good point that for us in Australia there can't be a second wave as we haven't had a first wave (more a trickle). I'm not saying that to boast, but more to flag that 'what happens after' is going to be very piecemeal as every country will have ver different COVID statuses for the next year or two, on top of all the usual differences between countries. So even with the very best international cooperation, gaining consensus in a range of areas will be very very difficult...
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ideas for managing in a post-lockdown world. The blog post is by a Dartmouth professor/biologist specializing in immunology.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR3FinVWKv22Xe9sAin-zzu0HP19lJaQ9WNrLb-k6hF0Px2xknLPw3BbP8Q

 

Quick Summary:

90% of all virus transmission are indoors. Many come from close contact from family members.

 

The main sources for infection are home, workplace, public transport, social gatherings, and restaurants. In contrast, outbreaks spread from shopping appear to be responsible for a small percentage of traced infections.

 

From the countries performing proper contact tracing properly, only a single outbreak has been reported from an outdoor environment (less than 0.3% of traced infections).

 

Kinda figured that many infections happened in an enclosed space with shared ventilation, I just didn't know the infections rates were so skewed towards the indoors. So it looks like I'm going to be doing a lot of outdoor activities for the foreseeable future.

 

It's sorta good news, at least it looks like outdoor events have a lot more protection than indoor events. But it does suck for the event venues.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After all the talk and drama about "reopen now"/"don't reopen now" I've been pondering what "reopening" actually means. I asked this question on our neighborhood discussion forum and nobody answered - I guess people got so lost in the drama that nobody actually thought much about the reopening itself.

 

I can't think of anything about what "reopening" is other than letting non-essential workers go back to their workplaces, and schools, churches and restaurants letting people back in.

 

Rock concert venues would be tricky because people love to crowd together for rock shows. Music venues that cater to an - sorry, no other way to put it - older clientele tend to have dinner tables - you have to sit at a table to attend a show. Those have a bit more viability as they can space the tables further apart for the 6-foot rule, assuming the tables aren't bolted down.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With the exception of bars and casinos, our state will be reopened albeit with a few hard to enforce restrictions on capacity and so forth this Friday. 77 of our 99 counties were allowed to reopen May 1st. There was never a "shelter in place" order here.

 

As of today there are 22 C-19 inpatient cases at the U of I Hospitals and Clinics, down from a peak in the mid 30's with 161 total to date.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Groove On - those are fascinating links, particularly what happened in Hokkaido. I think the debate has now turned to whether a significant increase in illness and death is acceptable to prevent an economic meltdown. There's no easy answer. You can make an argument that people get sick and die all the time, so the price that's being paid isn't that out of line, given the consequences. Or you can make the argument this is a warning sign that we need to seriously consider the economic model we have, and whether it's resilient enough to survive serious, unanticipated shocks to the system.

 

For example...people are out of work and have a hard time even affording food, but restaurants - which exist to make food! - are closed. Instead of having the government pay the people to buy food, why not pay the restaurants to make food for those people? Then the people without jobs get to eat, and the restaurant gets to stay in business. The logistics of connecting people with food might be complex, but I'm seeing churches around here offering free food to people. So the restaurants could just get the food to the churches - delivered by Uber and Lyft drivers, who would be paid to make the deliveries, so they get to stay at least partially in business too.

 

I believe we don't have a failure of the system as much as we have a failure of imagination on how to reconcile physical and economic health. But what do I know...I'm just a musician.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

restaurants - which exist to make food! - are closed.

 

In your area? I'm surprised. My friend in Knoxville TN says the restaurants in his town are open - some pickup-only, some w/ social distancing rules.

 

A good number in my area remain open, but have switched to pickup-only

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Many are doing take out, but business is down, and many aren't open at all. Also remember that Nashville is in worse shape in terms of infections than other places in Tennessee. But my point was more about a possibly better way to keep restaurants in business, by making them a bigger component of the food supply chain.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My apologies for my last post. My frustration with my government got the better of me.

 

Florida is slowly opening, but I feel it will be a long time before bands will be back. Right now restaurants are to operate at 25% capacity. For the places we regularly play at, there is no way they will be able to generate enough profit to pay a band with that few tables.

 

To achieve 25% density, one local restaurant is putting reserved signs on tables for people like Bruce Springsteen, Adele, Mickey Mouse, and other famous people. Cute.

 

The restaurant we've been playing at for 12 years and two owners is advertising us to return in October. So there is a light at the end of the tunnel (hopefully it's not the headlight of an oncoming train )

 

I think until (and if) a vaccine is available, the first to reopen will be playing a game of "russian roulette". I hope I'm wrong.

 

Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...