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Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3041265 04/29/20 08:07 PM
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Thread # 14 on this forum re: how screwed musicians are. Many more to come . . .


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Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3041268 04/29/20 08:30 PM
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This thread depresses me. I look forward to whenever we can put this behind us and live music can safely return. I had multiple months of gigs canceled and my city has canceled all of its major summer music-related events. Sad to also recall that I'm supposed to be at the NOLA Jazz Fest now with a couple of my forum friends.

Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3041290 04/29/20 10:53 PM
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Geez, my intention was not for this to be another depressing/how screwed musicians are thread...although I certainly understand how pandemics (along with wars, natural disasters, famines, etc.) are inherently depressing. Conversely, I was hoping to generate thoughts as to what the music landscape might look like once we get the "all clear" and perhaps facilitate discussion of how musicians can best leverage themselves in that environment. Probably should have put more thought into my OP and spelled that out a little better, I was kind of spit-balling... We have a very historically in-demand product (perhaps the second-oldest profession?) and there will be more gigs for us to play on the other side of this respite. I love ProfD's post. Seems flexibility, adaptability, and creativity will be required attributes moving forward. The good news is we have that in spades.


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Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3041307 04/30/20 01:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Moonglow
Conversely, I was hoping to generate thoughts as to what the music landscape might look like once we get the "all clear" and perhaps facilitate discussion of how musicians can best leverage themselves in that environment.

Ok I'll give it a shot.

I don't think it will be an "all clear" - probably something more like "proceed with caution". Until there's a vaccine, audience sizes will be much smaller by law - whether it's a maximum crowd size of 50, seating reduced 50%... something.

We kind of had a dress rehearsal for this in my area during the Great Recession. Small nimble clubs survived, while larger more established rooms struggled or went out of business entirely.

And musicians had to adapt. There were a lot of singles and duos working the Gorge back then. Several of these rooms expanded to bands in recent years, but if the money is not there I'm kind of expecting things to go back to where they were 10 years ago.

Ok... my Facebook news feed is heavily loaded with club-goers, so fWIW. I'm seeing a HUGE pent-up demand to get out and party. Once anything reopens, it will not be a "let's tiptoe down to the club and check it out" kind of thing. In my area, everyone will flock downtown. All the clubs I work have security, and just like on big nights someone will be at the door limiting the number of people who can get in. There will be lines down the street, just like there is to get into Home Depot or Costco.

At first anyway. But that doesn't mean that clubs will be making money. They'll only be half full.

Edit: As soon as I posted this, Oregon put out a draft of what they're considering for restaurants and bars to reopen. No karaoke (there goes my Thurs gig - but it was off the table anyway), no counter seating, no pool, a 50% capacity limit, establishments must close at 10pm, establishments must keep a log of customers for contact tracing.

I still think there will be an initial surge, but it will be short lived. No one is going to put up with that for long.

Last edited by Bill H.; 04/30/20 03:21 AM. Reason: A sudden wake-up call to what we're going to experience
Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3041859 05/03/20 06:19 PM
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Welp...just got a message from our singer that an outdoor restaurant wants us back for May 15. It's normally my favorite gig, as it's 7-10 pm and the people there love music.

Supposedly they are doing things "safely" but I have my doubts.

It actually would be pretty safe for the band as I can load from the side to the outdoor stage without getting near anyone. And I'm in the back against a fence, nobody can get close to me if they wanted to especially if I take extra measures to block myself off. Two problems: the other band members...and --bathrooms. Those are inside and you have to wind your way through tables and the bathrooms themselves are pretty small. Chances that other patrons around here will be wearing masks I reckon is somewhere near 5%. The people going out this soon are going to be the people that thought this was all bullshit in the first place. I don't think I can go 6-10:30 (load-in and out) without a restroom break....

Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3041863 05/03/20 07:00 PM
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Just read an article that the On-Demand of the new Trolls movie has already made more money than original did in it's entire five month run. So other studios are looking to at maybe new world for movies is online. So seems concerts could go the same way why the expense of touring, dealing with weather, sold out in one city empty seats in others. Move to internet and get a global audience for the original show(s) and tickets for being in the audience for the live capture would be $$$ status symbol. Then more money for the On-Demand replays. Large venues would now have the built in lighting video streaming capabilities as part of venues package. Seems like a business model that would work.

Live music would continue in bars and similar small places and YouTube streaming will be the world of up and coming artists building a name for themselves.

Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Stokely #3041866 05/03/20 07:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Stokely
Two problems: the other band members...and --bathrooms. Those are inside and you have to wind your way through tables and the bathrooms themselves are pretty small. Chances that other patrons around here will be wearing masks I reckon is somewhere near 5%. The people going out this soon are going to be the people that thought this was all bullshit in the first place. I don't think I can go 6-10:30 (load-in and out) without a restroom break....

You can go in your car. Don't knock it until you try it.

Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Stokely #3041870 05/03/20 07:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Stokely
It actually would be pretty safe for the band as I can load from the side to the outdoor stage without getting near anyone. And I'm in the back against a fence, nobody can get close to me if they wanted to especially if I take extra measures to block myself off. Two problems: the other band members...and --bathrooms. Those are inside and you have to wind your way through tables and the bathrooms themselves are pretty small. Chances that other patrons around here will be wearing masks I reckon is somewhere near 5%. The people going out this soon are going to be the people that thought this was all bullshit in the first place. I don't think I can go 6-10:30 (load-in and out) without a restroom break....

If I don't want my kid to burn their hand on the stove, I can tell them they aren't allowed in the kitchen and they won't get burnt. The other option is to teach them not to touch the hot stove.

The 6 foot thing is a way to dumb things down for people too stupid to understand how viruses spread. You won't get the virus by being only 5' 11" away from another human. Your eyes, nose, or mouth have to come in contact with the virus. It doesn't hang around in the air, but does travel on droplets from a cough or sneeze from an infected person and can remain on surfaces that you might touch and then touch your eyes nose or mouth before you properly washed it off.

When you need to use the restrooms, put on a mask, walk to the bathroom with your hands in your pockets. Do your business, wash your hands thoroughly, go back to stage, take off the mask, set it aside, and immediately use so,e hand sanitizer. Remember that mask can be contaminated on the outside which is why you use the sanitizer after handling. You'll have a much lower chance of catching than you do by going to the grocery store, pumping, gas, opening your mail, etc.


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Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3041896 05/03/20 11:12 PM
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It’s been proven through high speed cameras that droplets or rather aerosols from coughing can propel a lot further than 6 feet. In fact it can go 6 metres. Therefore you can get the virus from 6 feet away.

This is a TED talk on the subject from a Prof at MIT



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Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3041903 05/03/20 11:51 PM
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Yep...and I don't think it has been conclusively shown that this thing is not airborne. I've seen a couple studies that suggest that indoors it can float around for hours.

My approach has been to avoid any risks I am not forced to take right now. Mainly for the two people I live with that are at high risk. I have not been to a store since early March. My current understanding is that breathing in this thing from another person near you is far more likely than picking it up from a surface (not sure there has been even one documented case of this happening).

If I get word that all the other patrons MUST wear masks--therefore protecting others--I might consider it. I think that is as likely to happen has seeing a squadron of hogs winging overhead....but we'll see. And of course even if the restaurant has the rule they'd have to be willing to enforce it. Cue the story I read today about employees taking abuse from shoppers at a store until finally the entire city relented and said masks were voluntary...WTF...

The bad has played many a gig without keys in the past--I had to lighten my gig schedule due to being a dad and all--and this will probably be the case for the near future. The downside of this of course is having set lists filled with guitar songs but hey there's a cost to everything grin

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Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Stokely #3041909 05/04/20 12:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Stokely
Yep...and I don't think it has been conclusively shown that this thing is not airborne. I've seen a couple studies that suggest that indoors it can float around for hours.

Yeah... and I'm really cautious about entering a small or crowded men's room because an infected person can spray the virus into the air when they flush the toilet.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexan...l-transmission-of-covid-19/#691cac0c6eb8

Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3041910 05/04/20 12:50 AM
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I'm optimistic that the scene will continue, albeit in a very different way. And I'm optimistic that this will occur even in the (to me quite likely) event that there isn't a vaccine. Maybe this time the extra funding may crack the ability to vaccinate for corona-type viruses, but I'm not banking on it. In spite of that we will find a way to do what we do.

Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3041922 05/04/20 02:51 AM
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I can understand why, if music is how you put food on the table, you're going to take the risk and do it. If you're a pro musician, then most of your friends probably are as well and the playing field, so to speak, will be sort of level.

But if gigging is optional, then it's a more difficult calculation. I miss peforming. It's hugely significant source of meaning in my life. But for at least the next year, maybe more, we're all going to be asking whether we're subjecting ourselves to unnecessary risk.

Gigging life aside, I tend to move in circles of responsible, risk-conscious people who will take this very seriously. Should I be welcome in those social circles if I spend a couple nights a week in bars and clubs with people who (to paint with a broad brush) are not being as careful" I don't know, but it's an interesting question.


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Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Adan #3041925 05/04/20 03:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Adan
But if gigging is optional, then it's a more difficult calculation. I miss peforming. It's hugely significant source of meaning in my life. But for at least the next year, maybe more, we're all going to be asking whether we're subjecting ourselves to unnecessary risk.

This exactly.

Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3041955 05/04/20 01:30 PM
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As expected, everyone else was on-board to play. I emailed back saying I'm not comfortable doing so, especially living with two at-risk people. I don't think any of them have taken this as seriously as I have from the start, which is frankly figuring in my decision to not play. I doubt anyone in the band or at the place will be wearing masks.

If this was my living, I'd probably do it. Heck I may be in that dilemma soon if my work (foolishly IMO) requires all the work-from-home people back to the office (despite the fact that our jobs could be done efficiently from anywhere). As a plus, it's more money for the two members of the band that DO depend on gig money for a big chunk of their income (assuming they play it without me).

Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Stokely #3041962 05/04/20 01:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Stokely
Yep...and I don't think it has been conclusively shown that this thing is not airborne. I've seen a couple studies that suggest that indoors it can float around for hours.

Hanging around on droplets for a long time in the right conditions is not the same thing as being airborne. If it is airborne then nothing we are doing will protect us. Nobody's house is completely air tight.

That said, you have to make your own decisions, and don't let me, or your band mates, or anybody else pressure you into doing anything that makes you uncomfortable!

The main point I was trying to make is to use real information as best a song can be acquired to make decisions as opposed to blindly following a set of guidelines. The guidelines in so,e cases can be unnecessary and in other cases can actually put you in MORE danger if you don't think about reality.

Like the 6 ft thing. As mentioned, it can travel more than 6 feet in certain circumstances. But if you're outdoor and somebody down wind of you sneezes away from you, not so much. 6 feet is an arbitrary number. It's not like there is so,e Magic force field at 6 feet. It's still a good guideline for the most part, but I'm going to take either greater or lesser precautions depending on if somebody is coughing or sneezing, indoor or outdoor, facing me or facing away, do I know them and who they have been around? I see people everywhere wearing masks without their noses covered which does nothing. Another example where checking the box can make things worse because they have a false sense of security without understanding what they are doing.


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Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3041981 05/04/20 03:46 PM
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All very good points. I do fear the 'six feet' thing a bit because I think many people will assume it's a magic suit of armor.

In the case of this gig, I'd have a fan behind me and I'm in the back with nothing but a fence behind me. Even if the band members are within a few feet they face (and sing) away from me so it's probably safer than them being 6-10 feet away but facing me with a breeze behind them. Even so yeah just not comfortable. They can easily still do the gig, more money for the drummer and guitarist, so it's still a win.

The studies I saw (one from Wuhan) about being airborne were indeed involving indoor conditions. I imagine air flow and humidity play a big part too. Humidity in particular might be a reason why Florida is doing relatively better than many other states despite people not adhering to quarantine.....though some other humid places have been hit pretty hard.

What's weird about the masks is that you see people wearing them incorrectly, or not wearing them, or...wearing them while driving alone in your car (????) I see that all the time with people driving in and out of my neighborhood.

Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3041994 05/04/20 04:42 PM
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Temperature is a factor as well as UV light. More than humidity, high temps seem to be a thing. Probably why you see such a big difference between the northeast and CA in addition to just things like population density and transportation like subway vs cars. But I did see someone post their OWN correlation using Excel of data loaded from CDC alongside things like daily average temperature and there was a distinct correlation. That's not proof - correlation does not equal causation, after all (a common mistake of people siting statistics), but it jives with some scientific studies. So even when they keep changing findings on how long it can last on a surface or in the air, my first question is "under what environmental conditions?" In a lab? Outside? Light? Dark? Temperature? Humidity? We need more data and more time to study. Part of the reason for the disparity in what we hear is that they haven't been studying it long enough yet to have conclusive data.


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Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
eric #3041998 05/04/20 04:59 PM
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Originally Posted by eric
This thread depresses me. I look forward to whenever we can put this behind us and live music can safely return. I had multiple months of gigs canceled and my city has canceled all of its major summer music-related events. Sad to also recall that I'm supposed to be at the NOLA Jazz Fest now with a couple of my forum friends.

Eric I had one cancel this morning and another doesn't know if they will be open. May 14th is the official opening day but only for certain businesses in NYS.


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Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
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" I'm seeing a HUGE pent-up demand to get out and party. Once anything reopens, it will not be a "let's tiptoe down to the club and check it out" kind of thing. In my area, everyone will flock downtown. "


NO doubt. But I think when this happens, we will see a big surge in new infections and another, stricter shutdown will happen.

This isn't just going to go away because we're bored or broke. It doesn't care.

Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3042008 05/04/20 05:30 PM
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For those who do choose to gig, please report on how things are going smile Just based on what I'm hearing locally, I think things will be really busy as people are sick and tired of being cooped up. A sense of caution is not strong in heavy drinkers and the young wink

Getting back to the original topic, I think creative businesses will figure out a way to survive. Any club that has an outdoor option should have a leg up. As an example, a local club that is located in an old Midas muffler shop is (from what I hear) planning on opening the garage bay doors and basically running things from their entryway and parking lot. Musicians who work there will have to be nimble, and play quieter with fewer members because of noise restrictions.

I'm still holding out hope for my outdoor DJ gig starting in July. I've worked this space for years and feel very comfortable about it. The only thing that gives me pause is restroom breaks, but I'll take a bottle with me to the storage area behind where I set up.

Those who say "no way!" have never been on a tour bus with no toilet and a tight schedule. laugh

Last edited by Bill H.; 05/05/20 03:25 PM.
Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
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Originally Posted by Jazzooo
" I'm seeing a HUGE pent-up demand to get out and party. Once anything reopens, it will not be a "let's tiptoe down to the club and check it out" kind of thing. In my area, everyone will flock downtown. "


NO doubt. But I think when this happens, we will see a big surge in new infections and another, stricter shutdown will happen.

This isn't just going to go away because we're bored or broke. It doesn't care.
If you saw the pictures from Galveston and the beaches there, and the reports of people who were crowding restaurants and stores around Houston because the guvner opened up the state on the 1st, you would know you were right. A lot of people flocked. I'm not looking forward to the numbers we get two weeks from now.

I keep seeing people in this thread talking about coughing and sneezing, but a virus can spread because of the amount of material we eject just via talking. That's why asymptomatic people can spread it. They're just breathing and talking and it's coming out of them. Forget about singing. Have you ever seen a singer under the right light? Spray city. If that's not a good reason to avoid rehearsals, I don't know what is.


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Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3042200 05/05/20 09:08 PM
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I'm trying to stay optimistic, because after you have taken the precautions you can...what else can you do smile For example, I may get annoyed at seeing lots of (mostly) younger people out in places jammed together...if they end up getting this thing, and I'm still sequestered, then hopefully they will acquire some resistance which helps me too in the long run. Granted, we don't know if that's even the case at this point.

The mentality of the US--and look at this as a positive or a negative as you will--is not such that we can do a China or even a South Korea. There are already people protesting and getting upset over having to wear masks. Try going out in China *without* wearing one.

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to have some fool, especially after a few drinks, try to get into my face BECAUSE I'm wearing a mask or he saw me using hand sanitizer. Not like we don't see belligerent behavior at places we play....I'm in no hurry to get back out there, even though I miss it.

Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3042201 05/05/20 09:26 PM
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I was out get my walk in and ran in to my old high school buddy so we walked together for a bit. He never totally stopped teaching guitar lessons and today was smiles because some of his students that stopped because of the virus are starting back up. Like me he's in that older group that need to be careful and he's taking students and he doesn't need the money. He gets haircut by some woman who is going to peoples houses because the salon is closed, go to the store every couple days to have an excuse to be out and about. It's like he and others are going thru withdrawal and jonesing for a social fix. They're give a new meaning to STDs instead of Sexually Transmitted Disease it Socially Transmitted Disease.

I'm glad I've been a loner most my life and staying home and playing, listening to music works for me. In fact with the stay at home going on there is a wealth of great music, interviews, at home concerts, and musician hangs I'll miss when the virus is finally under control.

Stay home and stay safe all.

Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3042225 05/06/20 12:08 AM
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Just got back from curbside pickup at Petsmart. I miscalculated the food supply for the large eating machine at my house, or would have done delivery. It was busy, saw 30 people or so go in and out, only half wearing masks.

On the way there drove through the next-door Lowe's parking lot--very busy for a weeknight.

My band now has a second gig back, I said no again. Our guitarist is picking up solo gigs left and right, which are likely places that can't afford full bands but still want live music.

My basketball email group seems raring to go--the minute the park is open a bunch of people will be back out there. Some of them have been playing at other places.

The restaurant right down the road from me looked crowded for a weekday...cinco de mayo maybe?

How Florida is not awash in cases by now needs to be researched....it is NOT because people are, as a whole, practicing social distancing.

Last edited by Stokely; 05/06/20 12:10 AM.
Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Stokely #3042390 05/06/20 06:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Stokely
How Florida is not awash in cases by now needs to be researched....it is NOT because people are, as a whole, practicing social distancing.
It appears (at least to me) that there is somewhat of a meaningful correlation between higher mass transit use and higher COVID death rates, although it wouldn't explain why Louisiana and Michigan are so high in the list.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._cities_with_high_transit_ridership


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Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3042407 05/06/20 08:17 PM
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Louisiana was because of Mardi Gras, which was just as the virus was getting started here in the U.S., but before people really realized it. NYC is simply a crowded area with lots of people who commute there from the tri-state area thus infecting their friends and associates on Long Island, Connecticut, NJ, and the bedroom communities upstate.

Two factors seemed to help California, first was the early lockdown and b) was that they are a car culture and not as densely packed. Or, maybe they are pretty high on that list.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population_density

International travel also hit NYC hard, since we're now finding that there were cases in France in December.

I do wonder why Michigan is up there.

Meanwhile, when will it be safe to hang around with singers?


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Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3042454 05/07/20 12:03 AM
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re: International travel...I keep coming back to that for Orlando (where I am). Disney alone averages 50,000 visitors a day. Those parks shut down in the middle of March iirc, it was after my last gig March 10 which was packed with mostly-older people jammed together and dancing like usual. A bunch of those people in the parks are locals, I know a fair number of annual pass holders, but most are out of town and country; and of course all the people that work there and at the Orlando airport. We get A LOT of New Yorkers down here normally and once it hit there it was even singled out for something to be concerned with by our government here, as the snowbirds started fleeing NYC for their winter places. Cruise ships that dock at the coast are full of tourists too (enough that they are building a train to go from coast to the airport).

Coupled with the lax attitude it just doesn't add up. Orange county (orlando, disney) has had 30---30!---deaths, and I think that includes any nursing home deaths. Brevard county where the cruise ships dock and the beaches are has had way less cases and deaths....and I don't think that is just our lousy government fudging numbers either.

I guess we'll know eventually what is up.

Last edited by Stokely; 05/07/20 12:05 AM.
Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Stokely #3042499 05/07/20 05:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Stokely
re: International travel...I keep coming back to that for Orlando (where I am). Disney alone averages 50,000 visitors a day. Those parks shut down in the middle of March iirc, it was after my last gig March 10 which was packed with mostly-older people jammed together and dancing like usual. A bunch of those people in the parks are locals, I know a fair number of annual pass holders, but most are out of town and country; and of course all the people that work there and at the Orlando airport. We get A LOT of New Yorkers down here normally and once it hit there it was even singled out for something to be concerned with by our government here, as the snowbirds started fleeing NYC for their winter places. Cruise ships that dock at the coast are full of tourists too (enough that they are building a train to go from coast to the airport).

Coupled with the lax attitude it just doesn't add up. Orange county (orlando, disney) has had 30---30!---deaths, and I think that includes any nursing home deaths. Brevard county where the cruise ships dock and the beaches are has had way less cases and deaths....and I don't think that is just our lousy government fudging numbers either.

I guess we'll know eventually what is up.

I agree nothing they are telling us make sense.

Example:
Social Distancing -> Flatten the Curve -> No Hospital Bottleneck -> No deaths due to lack of hospital beds

The problem is, anyone who knows anything about math knows that the reduction in reproduction factor from Social Distancing only delays the total number of infections. The total number in the end is the same.
This is born out by the fact that the experts' death models have gone from 65k to 85k to 135k deaths in the last few weeks. Do you see a pattern? I guarantee it will keep increasing.

So, in my mind people at low risk (under 50 w/ no comorbidities) have the same 10 year risk of dying from the disease whether they go to a concert or not, say, after June. Everyone will almost certainly be exposed.

This assumes no effective vaccine, which I believe is a very good assumption.

Last edited by JazzPiano88; 05/07/20 05:32 AM.

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Re: Issues re: post-quarantine music venues
Moonglow #3042515 05/07/20 11:51 AM
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Not sure it doesn't make sense...I've seen graphs that show hospital ICU amounts vs virus cases both unchecked and flattened, and the flattening wasn't expected to have NO cases...it was supposed to lower the spike that took it (way) over the top of the hospital capability. And yes, that means it goes longer. None of this is an exact science, plan for the worst in case it happens and the data from overseas and NYC suggested it would. It would be very good to know exactly why it hasn't hit so hard in many other places.

Delaying is good though. Medicines get the headlines, but people in hospitals are reporting that treatments are evolving by the week. Placing patients prone, using nasal oxygen instead of going right to a ventilator, etc etc. I would rather get this later than sooner.

The death count was always going to increase, whether we got them all at once (which would have meant more people dying from non-CV problems since they couldn't be seen in a hospital...granted it means that to a point now if people are scared to go get their chest pain looked at etc). No expert I read or heard thought 65K or even 85K was realistic, the numbers were always higher than that based on the data available.

Many people at low risk--I'm 52 and pretty healthy, so not really low risk--live with people who are. I figure once its in your house, probably everyone is going to get it. The real problem for my household is what happens when the kids get back out there, and my work demands I go back to the office. My wife is recovering from chemo, my mom has health issues, both are living with me....we are trying to not bring it back to them. So for now we just take it week to week, it's very hard on the kids, other than the band I don't mind isolation! I have no intention of going to a movie theater, restaurant, concert or even a grocery store any time soon, perhaps for a year if I'm still working from home.

Last edited by Stokely; 05/07/20 11:54 AM.
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