Jump to content


Please note: You can easily log in to MPN using your Facebook account!

OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?


Recommended Posts

I posted a lot of similar things above on the 11th concerning the actual number of infections, possible number of people with antibodies etc.

 

Nothing has really changed other than these more recent studies validate what some of those earlier studies said and I wrote about. The actual infection rate at least here in CA is closer to 30% overall and the antibody tests seem to confirm that but some antibody tests are really sketchy right now because not all are equal. Some of those seem to have a very high false positive rate while others are good so who knows? Still, bottom line and it's just my hopeful opinion, the true hospitalization and fatality rates really are much, much lower than all the news reports keep saying. Using basic math to extrapolate using several studies including this new Stanford one, that means that any one individual has a very low risk of getting hospitalized and a very, very low risk of dying and that applies to all ages. Stanford says the actual number of people who have had this is 50 to 85 times greater than the current numbers show which lowers the mortality. Older with underlying conditions still have a higher risk but that's a higher risk based on a much lower overall number for everybody.

 

This opinion will be easily tested very soon. A lot of commentators are saying the same thing, they think it's too soon for some states to begin opening up but they hope it's not a problem. I feel exactly the same. Yes, it could be too soon but I really hope and think it's ok. One big deal is Boeing started their aircraft production back up starting Monday in Seattle. 27,000 workers but I don't know how many are actually going in. They said they have strict protocols in place to protect everybody. Here's an article about it:

 

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/20/839138167/how-boeing-employees-feel-as-some-return-to-work

 

In a few more weeks we'll get a better picture. And, in spite of my opinion I'm still paranoid as hell until I have more really solid facts. I went shopping on the 18th and no I didn't just walk in with a mask but then carelessly let it drop because I didn't like it or not use sanitizer on the cart or any of that stuff. I had gloves to pick stuff up with. Oh no I was as careful as anyone here. I just really feel it's not that necessary and it's wasting everybody's time but I'm not ready to walk the walk yet. I'm in the talking part only for now, haha.

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
Link to comment
Share on other sites



  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

I posted a lot of similar things above on the 11th concerning the actual number of infections, possible number of people with antibodies etc.

Bob

 

There is no question that the shortage of available tests for Covid_19 has caused us to miss the total number of cases, I see articles discussing that topic often.

Ther is another side to that story.

 

We don't know how many die and are not tested. Optimism regarding the relatively low number of verified deaths considered in terms of the potentially high number of infected survivors looks better than pessimism regarding the potential number of deaths that have occured without testing in terms of the confirmed cases of infected survivors.

 

Neither method is based on facts, both are speculation.

One post back - last post on the 3rd page - I mention 2 confirmed deaths that are now the earliest known Covid_19 deaths in the US. They were found during autopsies. How many have been buried or cremated who died without testing? We don't know and we never will know.

 

I don't put any stock whatsoever in cherry-picked numbers.

 

If you were a health care worker in say NYC and you had 200 tests avaialble, 10 untested deaths and 350 incoming patients who needed to be tested, what would you do with those tests? They won't help the dead.

You'll use them to try diagnose and try to save lives. You won't call the news reporters and tell them about it, you are way too busy already.

 

Until we are able to test EVERYBODY who needs a test - and we are a long ways off from being able to do that - we don't know what the percentage of survivors to deceased actually is and even if and when we do get to that point we will never know how many have died of Covid_19 nor will is it likely we will know how many have had it and lived for a long time to come.

 

In the end, it is speculation and nothing more.

It took a chunk of my life to get here and I am still not sure where "here" is.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know why those in control don't simply say "I don't know." Because they don't.

 

A lot of what's happening is guesswork. This is all too new, and too different, to be able to project about the future based on experiences of the past, under different circumstances.

 

Well, this begs political comment, no? :- D

I guess so, but I didn't intend it that way. I wish I heard more officials talking like, well, Bob:

 

In a few more weeks we'll get a better picture. And, in spite of my opinion I'm still paranoid as hell until I have more really solid facts...I was as careful as anyone here. I just really feel it's not that necessary and it's wasting everybody's time but I'm not ready to walk the walk yet. I'm in the talking part only for now, haha.

That's the reality. We don't have solid facts. We don't know what's going to happen when things re-open. We do know it's taking a chance, but we don't know the magnitude of that chance.

 

Today I had to venture into the outside world to pick up mail from my PO box. Afterward I drove into downtown Nashville for the first time since all this happened, just to see what was/was not open, and how people were reacting. It was a shock. Lower Broadway, which is usually packed with tourists, lines snaking around the block for restaurants, and bands in a bunch of clubs supplying the soundtrack for the city's tourist ghetto, was essentially empty. All the lights inside the stores and restaurants were off. There were maybe a half-dozen visible people per block, maybe less.

 

Although I did think now would be a great time to get a film crew out there, and film post-apocalypse stock footage. You wouldn't need permits from the city to clear the streets...they're already clear.

 

Places are opening up here in Tennessee. Where that will lead, I don't know. I'm staying home for now. That's what I normally do anyway, there's a studio here :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain

You can make the statistics say pretty much anything you want.

 

Until they test all the dead people we will not have any idea how many die from this disease. And with the shortage of test kits, we aren't going to waste them on dead people

 

Until they test the entire population we will not have any idea how many are infected. And with the shortage of test kits we cannot test everybody.

 

Therefore you can quote any statistic you like, one will show a lower death/hospitalization rate, another will show a higher death/hospitalization rate and neither one will be accurate.

 

You may as well consult an Ouija Board or pick random numbers.

 

Am I ready to go back to work? That really doesn't matter as the Governor has banned bands. Am I eager to go back to work? I miss gigging a great deal, it's my second favorite thing to do, but I'm not eager to go out of self-isolation. The death rate could be 0.0001% but if it gets me or my wife it's as good as 100%.

 

I can see why people are eager to get back to work. Many of us really need the money. But personally I think that until we know more about how to treat and prevent this virus, I think I'll stay home. There is too much unknown to assess the odds, so I think I'll err on the side of caution.

 

I read a lot of people saying we should go back to work and do that herd immunity thing, but I see none of them going back to work out in the public sector where they are facing scores of people every day.

 

And when I hear people who are so rich they are insulated from the general public saying we should restart the economy so that their unfathomable wealth doesn't lose it's value, they are telling us that their money, their profits, their billions are more important than our lives. Do you think Trump, Bezos, or any of those hedge fund managers are even going to the local supermarket?

 

But when I leave my home every other week for perishable groceries, I am thankful for the people who are literally risking making the ultimate sacrifice so that I can have dinner.

 

 

Insights and incites by Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Until they test all the dead people we will not have any idea how many die from this disease. And with the shortage of test kits, we aren't going to waste them on dead people

 

Testing positive doesn't mean that was the cause of death. Many people test positive with no symptoms and can die from any number of things. If somebody gets shot in the head and the coroner performs a test and they test positive, did they die from coronavirus? They can determine cause of death without a test via autopsy. They know what the lungs look like in a person who died from coronavirus.

Dan

 

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A different study in Boston showed that 147 of 408 people at a homeless shelter had the virus and 83% had no symptoms. No one died. Another random study in Iceland showed 1221 of 9199 persons (13.3%) who were recruited for targeted testing had positive results for infection. Iceland has a total of 10 deaths due to the virus (not sure if any were in the study group).

 

Eventually people will have to accept the science.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A different study in Boston showed that 147 of 408 people at a homeless shelter had the virus and 83% had no symptoms. No one died. Another random study in Iceland showed 1221 of 9199 persons (13.3%) who were recruited for targeted testing had positive results for infection. Iceland has a total of 10 deaths due to the virus (not sure if any were in the study group).

 

Eventually people will have to accept the science.

 

Once we have some science to accept. It's nice that people in a Boston homeless shelter an Iceland didn't die, but that's scant consolation to New Yorkers.

 

As I said...people just don't know.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A different study in Boston showed that 147 of 408 people at a homeless shelter had the virus and 83% had no symptoms. No one died. Another random study in Iceland showed 1221 of 9199 persons (13.3%) who were recruited for targeted testing had positive results for infection. Iceland has a total of 10 deaths due to the virus (not sure if any were in the study group).

 

Eventually people will have to accept the science.

 

Once we have some science to accept. It's nice that people in a Boston homeless shelter an Iceland didn't die, but that's scant consolation to New Yorkers.

 

As I said...people just don't know.

Studies are scientific. That's why science and the medical industry conduct them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A different study in Boston showed that 147 of 408 people at a homeless shelter had the virus and 83% had no symptoms. No one died. Another random study in Iceland showed 1221 of 9199 persons (13.3%) who were recruited for targeted testing had positive results for infection. Iceland has a total of 10 deaths due to the virus (not sure if any were in the study group).

 

Eventually people will have to accept the science.

 

Once we have some science to accept. It's nice that people in a Boston homeless shelter an Iceland didn't die, but that's scant consolation to New Yorkers.

 

As I said...people just don't know.

Studies are scientific. That's why science and the medical industry conduct them.

 

Yes and eventually you get enough samples from enough different environments that you can post a theory, which is subject to change as more data becomes available. That's how science works.

I don't think we are there yet, testing globally is far behind potential. The variables are extremely complex and thus difficult to parse.

 

So it is still speculation

It took a chunk of my life to get here and I am still not sure where "here" is.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The important part of the article is this : "The totals include deaths from COVID-19 as well as those from other causes..."

 

Of course, not disputing that. I made no claims, "here we have more data" is pretty open-ended.

 

On the other hand, it was an interesting way to look for discrepencies, no?

 

As it stands and on it's own, it proves nothing.

The same is true for any data points concerning unknowns. It is unknown how many people in the US and the World have had Covid_19. It is unknown how many people in the US and the World have died from Covid_19.

Those numbers will never be known.

 

Statements purporting to provide facts regarding the proportion of recovery to death are therefore in the same category as the article I linked - more data to be compiled into a theory that we may eventually accept or that may change in some substantial way as more data is collected. Again, that's how science works. Cheers, Kuru

It took a chunk of my life to get here and I am still not sure where "here" is.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course more data is needed. But 3 separate medical studies in 2 different countries tested in excess of 10,000 people and showed extremely low fatality rates. It's insulting to trained medical professionals to dismiss it as Ouija board guesses or random numbers.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course more data is needed. But 3 separate medical studies in 2 different countries tested in excess of 10,000 people and showed extremely low fatality rates. It's insulting to trained medical professionals to dismiss it as Ouija board guesses or random numbers.

 

 

I am not dismissing it at all, it is useful data. Currently this website: https://covidusa.net : shows 842, 376 cases - 46,769 deaths and 84,050 recoveries in the USA.

 

Useful data using around less than 2% of the total US covid cases is certainly good to have as right now any information is useful.

 

I don't think that trained medical professionals consider it sufficient to come to concrete conclusions, at the same time it is progress and all progress is good.

I'm sorry if you've misunderstood me or my intentions. I am not dimissing anything, I want this to go well for all of us across the planet and sooner would be better than later.

But it is dangerous to jump to conclusions too early, that's not good either and can endanger lives. Cheers, Kuru

It took a chunk of my life to get here and I am still not sure where "here" is.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As an example, a couple of esteemed medical organizations have now given up on the "miracle maleria drug" cure and have expressed regret that it probably cost some lives to find out that it does not work.

 

Sorry I don't have links for those articles but it is recent news, just a day or two old.

 

We all wanted it to work, anything that works is good. That's got to be difficult on the families who lost a loved one.

It took a chunk of my life to get here and I am still not sure where "here" is.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I didn't mean to imply people are using an Ouija board, what I am saying is that using small sample groups especially with the shortage of supplies. The thing I'm saying is that right now it's impossible to know. We can and should collect as much data as possible but keep in mind the margin of error is huge.

 

We can pick this study that shows this and that study that shows that and the results could be very conflicting. There is no way for me and I'd guess most of us to know which is closer to the truth.

 

Insights and incites by Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We can pick this study that shows this and that study that shows that and the results could be very conflicting. There is no way for me and I'd guess most of us to know which is closer to the truth.

 

There's not even a definitive answer on whether those who had the corona virus are immune. A drug company in Israel that's working on a vaccine says it may not be possible due to the way the virus mutates. Or maybe it will be a hot, humid Summer, and the virus won't cope with the heat. Or maybe it will roar back in the Fall.

 

It's human nature to want an explanation for anything unexplainable. But in this case, no one really has a clue. The best we can hope for is that some people can come up with reasonably informed speculation that can at least not point us in the wrong direction.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So far, the models that John Hopkins University have been using - ones I've seen since late January or early February - have been eerily accurate for the U.S. :(
Link to comment
Share on other sites

But like weather forecasting models, don't they get revised a lot? I don't have a problem with that, it's the nature of data...more data means more accurate models. IIRC the models in the earlier part of the year were predicting more in the range of 100K - 240K dead assuming decent mitigation procedures, far more if not. Then as social distancing started to take hold in a way that was better than expected, it was revised down to 60,000 but now it's been bumped up to 66,000 due to taking nursing home deaths into account.

 

All I know for sure is that this is something like I've never experienced. People can say "the regular flu kills 30,000 a year" or whatever, but this has all happened in a few months. The fall of the economy, the overloading of the health system, the massive numbers of deaths is occurring in a really compressed time period.

 

So I guess my original question remains: it isn't going away, so now what? I have no idea.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Then as social distancing started to take hold in a way that was better than expected, it was revised down to 60,000 but now it's been bumped up to 66,000 due to taking nursing home deaths into account.

 

Look for more revisions, we are tragically close to 50,000 deaths this evening.

There is pressure to re-open our country for business, I understand why.

 

If it is too early - and my best guess is that it is far too early - then we might have a new surge of infection.

I hope not but I don't find current events comforting.

It took a chunk of my life to get here and I am still not sure where "here" is.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lets change the subject a little bit and let me rephrase Craig's original question:

 

"OK, so we're heading for another Great Depression, now what?"

 

Here's one definition of that:

 

Depressions are characterized by their length, by abnormally large increases in unemployment, falls in the availability of credit (often due to some form of banking or financial crisis), shrinking output as buyers dry up and suppliers cut back on production and investment, more bankruptcies including sovereign debt defaults, significantly reduced amounts of trade and commerce (especially international trade), as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations (often due to currency devaluations). Price deflation, financial crises, stock market crash, and bank failures are also common elements of a depression that do not normally occur during a recession.

 

None of us here lived through the Great Depression. My grandfather did. He was born in 1898, was a WW1 Marine and lived through the Depression. He told me how bad things were and tons of books have been written about it. It would be so much worse than anything any of us have ever seen. I mean losing your house, your savings, no more Social Security or welfare checks and we wind up standing in lines at a soup kitchen so we literally won't starve to death. We're resilient, the economy has a lot of built in protections but it's like a big rubber band. It can go on, and on, and on and we think it's fine but one morning we wake up turn on the news and bam, right between the eyes. It's over.

 

My take on this. Two choices. First, Great Depression Part II. Second, follow the plan knowing it could be too soon, accept the odds and go back to work in time to save us all from the first choice. Yes, there is a third choice. Keep living off the government until such time as the odds of dying are low enough for us to go back to work. Define "low enough". How many fatalities is an acceptable number? How long can the government handouts last? How long before the business closings, bankruptcies, foreclosures and financial institution failures makes it too late to avoid the first choice? I don't know but it could be sooner rather than later.

 

We're standing on the precipice and a second Great Depression is a very real possibility here. 26 million unemployed and heading for 30? Those are historic Great Depression numbers and numbers like that cannot be allowed to stand for long or we're all hosed. Want proof? During the Great Depression the unemployment rate hit 24%. As of yesterday Forbes has it at 20%. Another week or two of big claims and we'll be right there.

 

We all know about the lessor of two evils. Another Great Depression or work with COVID 19? This is why I take the hopeful side of all of these stats. It's because I feel there's no choice, we're restarting the economy regardless. It's like Dr. Strangelove. Stop worrying and learn to love the Bomb.

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think given the opportunity, the market will find ways to adjust.

 

I am a fan of some of the various restaurant and bar rescue type shows on cable channels and was very interested to see some interviews on news outlets with John Taffer of Bar Rescue, and Robert Irvine of Restaurant: Impossible. Both made some very good points, suggestions, and predictions about changes that must occur in restaurants and bars along with what impact it will have on their business models.

 

Among other things, one has to do with distancing. One point made was even when all this is over, restaurants will likely have to remove tables/seating to keep distance between tables, which would result in far less seating capacity. One result could be the end of "lunch hour". In order for a restaurant to stay in business with limited capacity might mean turning the whole crowd 3 times instead of 1. That coupled with just the time and logistics of getting lunch in might mean a staggered lunch schedule that spans a few hours where everybody doesn't go to lunch from 12-1 but instead splits between 3 shifts, or something along those lines. That was mainly Taffer talking about that but Robert Irvine touched on similar points in a separate interview.

 

Irvine went more into some of the changes that the restaurants will have to make to give warm feelings, safety, and security visiting their establishment. He went into detail around additional measures they would have to actively take in terms of cleanliness, disinfecting, etc as well as officially documenting their procedures and expectations for the customers. It will be about the customer feeling secure that he restaurant has proper measures in place and are in fact executing those measures.

Dan

 

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good points - "business as usual" will have to become business done differently. It will be interesting to see what restaurants do as they run on very thin margins already.

 

I want to make a point about taking people's temperatures. IMNSHO, that's next to useless. While it might catch someone who is sick, we now know that this virus is being spread largely by asymptomatic carriers. To say, "you can come in because your temp is okay" gives a false sense of security because that person might be an asymptomatic spreader. I guess it might help catch people who are starting to show symptoms, but I don't know if it's worth it.

 

This article talks about some of the things I've mentioned before. Those who recover from the virus will still need help from both the mental and physical damage.

 

The Challenges of Post-COVID-19 Care

 

Patients who survive intubation often find themselves profoundly debilitated, experiencing weakness, memory loss, anxiety, depression, and hallucinations.

 

Among the patients I care for at the hospital is a young woman recovering from covid-19. To keep her blood oxygenated, she needs a device called a non-rebreather mask. The mask is connected by a tube to a one-litre translucent bag, which is in turn connected to an oxygen cannister in the wall; when she exhales, one-way valves shunt expired carbon dioxide into the room and prevent her from rebreathing it. It"s considered an advanced oxygen-delivery device, because it supplies more oxygen than a simple nasal cannula; it is also cumbersome and uncomfortable to wear. But the mask, my patient says, isn"t her biggest problem; neither is her cough or shortness of breath. Her biggest problem is her nightmares. She can"t sleep. When she closes her eyes, she"s scared she won"t wake up. If she does fall asleep, she jolts awake, frenzied and sweating, consumed by a sense of doom. She sees spider-like viruses crawling over her. She sees her friends and family dying. She sees herself intubated in an I.C.U. for the rest of time.

 

Patients who survive intubation often find themselves profoundly debilitated. They experience weakness, memory loss, anxiety, depression, and hallucinations, and have difficulty sleeping, walking, and talking. A quarter of them can"t push themselves to a seated position; one-third have symptoms of P.T.S.D. A 2013 study of discharged I.C.U. patients, many of whom had been intubated, found that, three months after leaving the I.C.U., forty per cent of them had cognitive test scores one and a half standard deviations below the meanâroughly equivalent to the effect of a moderate traumatic brain injury. A quarter showed cognitive declines comparable to early Alzheimer"s disease. The longer patients were in the I.C.U., the worse the consequences became.

 

The joy we all feel when patients at our hospital survive acute covid-19 is followed, quickly, by the acknowledgment that it could be a long time before they fully recover, if they ever do. Many will suffer through months of rehabilitation in unfamiliar facilities, cared for by masked strangers, unable to receive friends or loved ones. Families who just weeks ago had been happy, healthy, and intact now face the prospect of prolonged separation. Many spouses and children will become caregivers, which comes with its own emotional and physical challenges. Roughly two-thirds of family caregivers show depressive symptoms after a loved one"s stay in the I.C.U. Many continue to struggle years later.

"I'm so crazy, I don't know this is impossible! Hoo hoo!" - Daffy Duck

 

"The good news is that once you start piano you never have to worry about getting laid again. More time to practice!" - MOI

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am very concerned about lives of the elderly, "the disposable generation" of which I am a member.

 

I'm also concerned about the economy, a depression, as well as rampant inflation with the new money being printed.

 

Since Nixon and his GOP congress took us off the gold standard inflation has already gone crazy. Gas used to cost 33 cents per gallon, a new top end Cadillac cost $6,000, new suburban homes started at $10,000 -- $20k for a high end waterfront home with ocean access in Florida, chicken sold for 19 cents per pound, a bottle of Coke or Pepsi 6 cents, coffee in a restaurant for a nickel, and at a diner you could get a T-Bone steak dinner with potatoes and a veggie for 99 cents -- add another nickel for a soft drink or coffee. Interest on credit cards topped at 6%.

 

Of course that means our post gold standard savings that grew at market rates or compound interest is actually worth less in buying power than it did when I put it in the bank or the mutual fund. That's the price of fiat money with no backing and it is exactly what the bankers wanted.

 

Now we are printing more money without backing while we are giving the richest of the rich more tax breaks. And big biz has seen their relief checks Trump and other Hotels, Airlines, and others have received billions. I have yet to see a penny from either unemployment or the supposed stimulus check. That fiat money is apparently going to the big businesses, not the people who need it most. Has anyone here received their stimulus and/or unemployment money yet?

 

And unlike the Great Depression we have FDIC so your money in the bank is "relatively safe". The gov't will use taxpayer funds to bail out the banks again (when FDIC was supposed to bail out the depositors, not the banks).

 

So what is the answer?

 

Instead of welfare checks should we do what FDR did and put people to work in infrastructure improvement? I like that idea in theory, but how do we do that and keep social distancing?

 

I certainly don't have the answer, but I'm content to wait longer hoping the scientific/medical community can come up with either a preventative or treatment option that greatly reduces the death and debilitation effects of this plague. How long? I'm not sure, but I don't think we are ready to go back to the new 'normal' yet.

 

When it gets to the new normal, how will it affect my main income source, gigging? Bands were banned in Florida because we draw crowds. Without a vaccine or cure keeping 6' apart is a problem.

 

I guess I'm not contributing anything concrete to the problem, just raising the same questions.

 

I hope someone wiser than myself comes up with an answer I can get behind.

 

Insights and incites by Notes

Bob "Notes" Norton

Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com

Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box

The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's not easy that's for sure but I am still hopeful. To answer one of your points Notes. Yes, millions of people including many of my clients have received their stimulus money. If you've read my tax thread I explained how that works and why some haven't gotten it yet. It's not some nefarious plot, it's just the IRS managing the rules concerning how it goes out. I also explained if it applies to you what you need to do to get your money. As for big business and not the intended small businesses getting money, that has been a huge problem. Jim Cramer on his Mad Money show on CNBC explained what happened. This legislation was rushed and some things were missed. Government is not in the business of directly loaning money, it was given to the banks to loan out with the assumption they would give priority to small business. But, big business has "concierge" personal relationships with their bankers that the little guys don't. Those bankers simply gave priority to them and not to all the little guys loan applications. Disgraceful, really bad stuff and the Administration is working on forcing those companies, especially the publicly traded ones, to give the money back. Some have already done that. This latest round of money just signed into law is supposed to have corrected that.

 

Another positive article this morning, this time about the Wisconsin election. Remember all the angst about that? We can't have a regular election at this time, we'll all die sort of thing? The Supreme Court issued a controversial and rushed 5-4 ruling rejecting the arguments to delay it or make it vote by mail. Well, it's now been two weeks which is the time period we all know is needed for new cases to show up. No spike in cases. Frankly I was worried about that and I think this is great news.

 

The reasons why are probably related to all the different things we've brought up in this thread. Whatever it is Wisconsin had their election and lived to tell about it.

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We all know about the lessor of two evils. Another Great Depression or work with COVID 19? This is why I take the hopeful side of all of these stats. It's because I feel there's no choice, we're restarting the economy regardless. It's like Dr. Strangelove. Stop worrying and learn to love the Bomb.

 

Bob

 

If we truly knew our situation it might make sense to "take the hopeful side of these "stats" (quote marks on "stats" are mine).

But at this point we do not know enough by any means and the opportunity to learn more about the recent past is extremely labor intensive. The Governor of California ordered autopsies done on recent deaths in Santa Clara county after 2 autopsies showed that the first currently known deaths occured in CA, not WA as was believed up to this point. It could be valuable information but it will require digging graves back up. Those who were cremated? Those stats are lost forever, we will never know.

 

A very recent article speaks of people who didn't even know they were infected (because the wealthiest country in the world can't seem to figure out how to provide testing for it's citizens) and died of strokes.

This is a new finding, another way that Covid_19 kills humans.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/

 

At this point Saturday morning we have 900,000+ cases and 52,000+ deaths. Actual numbers are unknown due to a lack of testing. It is likely they are much higher.

 

As to the accuracy of our current stats, it is like saying a bowl of macoroni and cheese has 20 noodles in it when there are probably 50 or 60.

Gambling with other people's health and lives with facts that are woefully incomplete is something I can not and will not do. We will never know the full extent, I would settle for having a better idea of where we are now but that does not seem to be forthcoming any time soon. Yes, everybody is going to die sooner or later, if I recall correctly that was part of the defense of one of the defendents at Nuremburg.

 

Cheers, Kuru

It took a chunk of my life to get here and I am still not sure where "here" is.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Buckminster Fuller once said that if every person in the world devoted two weeks to maintaining infrastructure - not just roads, but other necessities like farming and the electrical grid - they could all be entitled to food, clothing, shelter, and medical care for free because there would be enough resources to go around. The difference between that and a communist model was that the only mandatory aspect would be those two weeks of service. The other 50 weeks, if you wanted to start a business and buy a yacht, go for it. But if you're a musician and you just want to sit at home and record, then you could do that too. Jobs would still exist; you'd still need doctors doing more than two weeks of work a year. But there would still be jobs, and there would still be an economy. Money would still change hands. The only difference is there would be enough to go around, albeit on a "minimum viable product" level.

 

That may sound naïve and utopian, but taking a broader view, there is enough wealth, and there are enough resources on this planet, to provide the essentials needed for existence to everyone. Where any system falls apart is when people take without giving. For example, you could dissolve Bank of America and provide enough to take care of a limited number of people for a limited amount of time. But when that runs out, then you have to find another bank to dissolve.

 

Fuller's point was that if people acted like they were part of a society, felt an obligation to society, and understood the benefits of thinking of wealth as something created by the individuals who make up a society, there would be enough to go around. If someone needed clothes, they wouldn't get Dior...but they wouldn't freeze to death, either.

 

Of course you would need to match expertise with gigs. For example, I'm good with technology and computers. Maybe I'd work on testing medical devices for two weeks to make sure batteries could still hold a charge, calibrations were within specs, etc. A medical system would be like insurance - if everyone contributed to the medical system in some way, that would free up enough resources to give care to those who needed it. For example, how much do hospitals have to spend on uniforms? If people made the uniforms as part of their two weeks of service, that would free up resources.

 

Maybe a truck driver would be asked to bring food from farms to distribution centers. Maybe a shut-in would make clothing for two weeks out of the year. Certainly, there would be a LOT of unanswered logistical questions...but imagine what the world would be like if we could find answers. Then again, I'm not convinced we've found answers for the current unanswered logistical questions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://wxow.com/2020/04/25/wisconsin-reports-largest-1-day-increase-of-covid-19-cases/

 

Wisconsin reports largest 1-day increase of COVID-19 cases

 

MADISON, Wis (AP/WXOW) - Wisconsin health officials report that 331 tests for the coronavirus have come back positive in the last 24 hours, the largest single-day rise since the outbreak started.

 

An additional four people have died.

 

The update raises the total number of positive cases to 5,687 and the statewide deaths to 266.

 

State Department of Health Services data shows that 24 percent of infected people have been hospitalized.

 

The actual number of infections is thought to be far higher because many people have not been tested, and studies suggest people can be infected with the virus without feeling sick.

 

No indication either way of election impact on Wisconsin's case count.

 

Generally, most states still appear to be on the upswing, looking the interactive graph ("How quickly is your state's case count growing?"). NY is the only one that looks like its flattening

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But like weather forecasting models, don't they get revised a lot? I don't have a problem with that, it's the nature of data...more data means more accurate models. IIRC the models in the earlier part of the year were predicting more in the range of 100K - 240K dead assuming decent mitigation procedures, far more if not. Then as social distancing started to take hold in a way that was better than expected, it was revised down to 60,000 but now it's been bumped up to 66,000 due to taking nursing home deaths into account.

 

All I know for sure is that this is something like I've never experienced. People can say "the regular flu kills 30,000 a year" or whatever, but this has all happened in a few months. The fall of the economy, the overloading of the health system, the massive numbers of deaths is occurring in a really compressed time period.

 

So I guess my original question remains: it isn't going away, so now what? I have no idea.

 

They are based on models, so yes, they get revised as additional data occurs. The model that initially forecast the higher numbers was not John Hopkins, but Imperial College London, who themselves pulled the numbers back after just a few days. But given that we have over 50,000 deaths and counting (and the U.S. has about 4.25% of the world's population and 25% of the coronavirus deaths), let's just hope that the lower numbers are accurate. It's difficult to predict people's behavior, and if people are going to open back up prematurely, it could knock the numbers out of whack.

 

But what's frightening is how accurate the initial John Hopkins figures were from January/February. You know, back when no one was listening to health professionals. :(

 

As for your last question, I don't have a definitive answer, but hey, I'll give it a try.

 

To me, the best idea is to be pragmatically science-based, listen to health professionals and historians of previous pandemics, stomp on it hard with "shelter in place" and be aware that second and third waves of it can come. Given that many previous pandemics that have had a more brutal second wave, we need to create the infrastructure in place to deal with that. If we don't do that and open up things prematurely in the hopes that we do less harm to the economy, we seriously risk having far more deaths and a worse economy ultimately. I also feel that the best guideline is one of saving lives. This is the most humane, compassionate guideline in my opinion, which should always be what we consider foremost, and one that seems to be also supported by science and history and health professionals.

 

And it probably goes without saying that you place maximum resources toward creating a vaccine, working collaboratively with other scientists from around the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...