OT: Hard decisions in a world of infections risk

[Jazzmammal]

Several have said this will pass in a few more weeks. I agree given what we've all seen now about the original models of this were way off on the high side of infections and fatalities and the current reality is much better than those models. But that only means younger people with no underlying issues would be "safe enough" to go back to a physical workplace. But for someone like you Tim and so many others, what would it take for you to feel safe enough? That exact question has been on every type of news I've seen or read the last two days. What is considered "safe enough?" To me it means when they have a proven therapy that can control this thing. Not a cure but at least something that can keep us out of an ICU. As much as I want to put on a happy face, I don't see that happening in a few weeks for all of us who are older or have these underlying conditions like you have Tim.

 

I can and have, posted ravings about how CA is nowhere near as bad as other places, it looks like this thing is not as terrible as first thought and all that. I can post it, I can think it but do I actually believe it yet? I have to admit that answer is ahhhh, this hurts...NO. I can't. Not yet. And that tells me all of our gigging plans for this year are probably dead. Maybe Christmas/New Years. I've mentioned Catalina Island before and the gigs I do there. My sister lives there and I just talked to her yesterday. They are running two boats a day to the island, one in the morning and one in the evening for two classes of people. Residents who live there and workers who work there and they all go back on the evening boat. That's it. Nobody else for any reason. They have zero cases over there right now and they aim to keep it that way. The whole island is run by the Catalina Company and everything except for the Vons market, Leo's Pharmacy and of course the hospital is closed down. Economy? What economy? What will it take for them to change that? A lot I think. Same with all public places, Jon Taffer of the Bar Rescue show says this is going to rip up the bar and restaurant business as we know it.

 

Bob

[RABid]

You are smart. You have the imagination of a musician. Put that to work on a temporary solution. One thing I would suggest is to convert to virtual meetings. Invite him to dinner, have GrubHub deliver the same meal to him that you plan to eat. Connect on FaceTime and have a meal together. You can do the same thing watching a movie. Years ago my best friend's son went to China to teach English for two years. I would Skyp him and we would watch ballgames together. It is not as good as face to face, but it is much better than total absence. Make the effort. Include him in things, even virtually. It will mean something.

[RandyFF]

I'm also in the high risk group, 65 with heart issues including high bp.

 

I've heard non-stop coverage of C-19, but very little in how long it's expected to last, and what the trigger point would be for starting to cycle back into normal life.

 

I understand that strict sheltering in place and other social distancing protocols are being used in part to combat an excessive surge in hospitals, which as a whole, the US is not prepared for. That is very important. California apparently is doing OK.

 

But I wonder what happens when the shelter in place goes on to the end of April, another 3 weeks. Then May, then the rest of the summer, and then????

 

AFAIK, I've only heard that coming up with a vaccine was at least a year off. And the only other helpful thing i've heard is that the virus is likely to spread less in non-winter months. Are there other projected ways for the spread to slow or stop in the next month or so that I'm not hearing about?

 

If, for example, the shelter in place remains for the next 3 months, we'll be beyond a recession, probably a full depression or whatever equivalent applies. At some point there'll have to be a point where more people are allowed to go back to work, because if the economy tanks a lot of people, esp lower income, will suffer enormously. On a world-wide level it's scary to think what could happen.

 

A lot of the things discussed in this thread make a lot of sense, like the measures used to protect the most vulnerable populations. If there is a gradual get-back-to-work/school/life, then the people who absolutely need to be extra cautious won't have to deal with the more severe aftermath of the economy going down the toilet while they're waiting for it all to blow over.

 

Meanwhile, my thoughts go out to all of you dealing with difficult and heart wrenching choices.

[stillearning]

Seems like everyone here is high risk (myself included). I"m wearing gloves and a mask just to read this thread.

[KenElevenShadows]

To Timwat, as difficult as that is, that's probably the best choice overall. But you can have people check in, you check in, stay connected.

 

 

I've heard non-stop coverage of C-19, but very little in how long it's expected to last, and what the trigger point would be for starting to cycle back into normal life.

 

I understand that strict sheltering in place and other social distancing protocols are being used in part to combat an excessive surge in hospitals, which as a whole, the US is not prepared for. That is very important. California apparently is doing OK.

 

There's numerous models that are put out, but there's variance in obviously what's input, but also how many people actually shelter in place and what sort of health equipment we get and so forth. It's obvious that masks and shelter in place works, of course, but apart from that, there's still variance. It's not that many people don't know what they are talking about; they do, and so far, many of the models have been terrifyingly accurate. The models that I saw in January have largely come true...unfortunately.

 

California is doing okay, but we got nailed pretty badly by it. And as great of a job as we are doing overall with our leadership keeping us safe and all, I do actually wish they had done "shelter in place" earlier. But a lot of people would have rebeled against it and we would have had an even worse economy than we do now, but....well, who knows what the right call was. But I remember wishing in either early March that that Newsom would have shut it down then.

 

Best wishes to everyone. Stay safe. I think this group has always been a very well-educated, well-reasoned group of people, and I suspect that people are well-informed and know how to stay safe.

[tfort]

You made the right call, Tim. But don't cut him and his mom off, or you either. Stay connected outdoors maintaining distance, or via technology-- FaceTime, Zoom, whatever. Anything is better than being cut off.

 

Good luck and hang in there.

[Six-string-man]

Tim, speaking as someone living with cancer, diabetes and compromised lungs, you have made the right decision. It"s going to be tough on the lad for the next couple of months, but imagine how he"d feel if he brought Covid into the house, and you didn"t survive. From what you say, he would have trouble living with that.

 

All the best mate.

[Spider76]

the original models of this were way off on the high side of infections and fatalities and the current reality is much better than those models.

...

CA is nowhere near as bad as other places, it looks like this thing is not as terrible as first thought

 

This is a very, VERY dangerous line of thought.

In front of the unknown, caution suggests to be overly cautios. Underestimating the danger is the worst mistake...and unfortunately also the most common, which is being invariably committed by all Western country one after the other. It looked almost like a competition on who would downplay the danger the most...and we're just starting to see the consequences.

 

The truth is, nobody has any idea about the real numbers of this thing, because the vast majority of cases (estimates are around 80-90%) has mild or no symptoms so isn't diagnosed (but spreads the contagion anyway), and not even the number of deaths is sure because not all deads are tested, not all casualties are classified as "virus" casualties, and the criterias for counting the cases vary immensely from country to country.

 

But for example in Italy it's becoming clearer and clearer that in this last couple of months the general death rate in many cities has increased up to 3-4 times, even if only a small part of those was credited to coronavirus. Be it because the disease is much more widespread than we think, be it because it causes many more unknown complications on other systems, be it because of "collateral damage" (hospitals are overcommitted and cannot take care of regular accidents and diseases, which of course haven't stopped occuring)... the end result is the same: people are dying in much greater numbers than usual.

 

We know almost nothing about this thing. The only defense is trying to slow it down so the sanitary system doesn't collapse.

Stay home. Stay safe.

[Moonglow]

You are smart. You have the imagination of a musician.

+1

You also have a benevolent, humanitarian, and wise spirit, and others frequently look upon you to help solve their problems. Why? Because that is what you do. My sense is that you squarely confront tough situations and because you are intelligent and competent and genuinely care about the welfare of others, you are usually successful. However, the present situation requires a different way of doing things, which can be uncomfortable. Here you are required to direct all of these incredible attributes toward yourself...an approach to which you may not be accustomed. But by taking care of yourself you will be taking care of others. You will be successful in doing so. Why? Because that"s what you do. Godspeed, brother Tim.

[Adan]

Tim,

 

I think you are putting too much responsibility on yourself. In general, that's an admirable character trait. But even admirable character traits can tip into disfunctional ones depending on the context. And this context is unprecedented in our lifetimes.

 

Everyone has to make sacrifices. Everyone has to be stronger. Everyone has to think outside of their own interests, because a contagion like this intertwines our interests in such an immediate and demonstrable way.

 

Your stepson has to grow to meet this challenge. He will be a better person for it if he does. There's only so much you can do to help him.

 

By the powers vested in me, I absolve you of your guilt.

[Tusker]

Tim, it's a testament to your compassion that you are thinking about your step-son's emotional needs at this time. However, you are making the best decision by taking social isolation as seriously as you are. If anyone has skills at communicating through a thin electronic medium ... that person is you. You'll find ways of showing how much you care. Personally, I am going to put Rabid/Robert's wonderful suggestions into practice. Also, consider video games, which I find helpful for connecting indirectly. They can provide a feeling of togetherness without overt conversational pressure.

 

Please let us know how it goes, and the very best to your family.

[Jazzmammal]

the original models of this were way off on the high side of infections and fatalities and the current reality is much better than those models.

...

CA is nowhere near as bad as other places, it looks like this thing is not as terrible as first thought

 

This is a very, VERY dangerous line of thought.

In front of the unknown, caution suggests to be overly cautios. Underestimating the danger is the worst mistake...and unfortunately also the most common, which is being invariably committed by all Western country one after the other. It looked almost like a competition on who would downplay the danger the most...and we're just starting to see the consequences.

 

Nobody is underestimating this thing, I don't know where you're getting that from. A competition to downplay the danger? From whom? Italy? I don't see any downplaying coming out ot them, what the heck are you talking about? If you don't know the story of all the modeling by now you need to take some time and research the news about it. Modeling is based on assumptions and the initial assumptions were wildly off. Concerning California, Dr. Brix two days ago gave the latest numbers of the percentages of infections detected by testing by state. NY is highest at 40%, NJ at 28% then several in the NE area and Michigan around 18%. Get to the West Coast it's 9%. Huge difference. Those are the numbers man. One month ago the models predicted NY would see 26,000 deaths by mid April. Gov Cuomo in his presser at that time was talking about the lack of ventilators and even made the very inflammatory comment about only having 4000 ventilators, who's going to tell those 22,000 people they're going to die? We need more ventilators! Now he actually has a small reserve of unused ventilators. I may be off in the exact numbers he said but it's close enough. I don't blame him, that's what the models said. Now? The actual numbers are a fraction of that. Please understand just because I said that does NOT mean I'm somehow ignoring the bodies being stored waiting for burial. That's still bad and terrible. All I'm saying is it's not THAT bad. Gov Newsome said about 5 weeks ago CA would see 20 million, yes MILLION cases within 60 days. That's by mid May or so. Not happening and that's by far the wildest, out there in space prediction by anyone. Again, the models were not remotely close to reality. Nationally they said 100,000-200,000 deaths by mid April. Now it's been revised down to around 60,000. Still bad enough and I'm certainly not downplaying 60K deaths but If you don't believe all this about the modeling being so far off with their initial predictions, ok your choice but I wouldn't mind seeing some actual stats you can produce about that..

 

Having said that, nobody including me has changed our behavior any. it's still serious and we still have to be careful.

 

Bob

[MAJUSCULE]

There's always a large range in models, Bob, particularly the further ahead they are projecting. As Adan said in the previous thread, the harsher options are usually presented to remind the populace of the potential dangers and encourage proper respect of health guidelines. I haven't followed individual state policies much so I'm not gonna get into those numbers with you, but just an FYI, I believe Spider76 is located in Italy. Their perspective and current reality is a different one.

[Spider76]

Nobody is underestimating this thing, I don't know where you're getting that from. A competition to downplay the danger? From whom?

 

Sorry Bob, I took your comments to start a general reflection, sorry if it sounded personal.

The ones downplaying the epidemic are the governments: unfortunately, the only real defense would be an immediate lockdown (everybody stays at home. Period.), while all the Western countries, as far as i can see, were very gradual: first only the contagion hotspots, then some larger areas, then the schools, then some industry, then some transportation, until finally the whole country is locked down WEEKS later, after millions of people have moved to and from the hotspots. This is only the best way to ensure that the virus spreads capillary throughout the country before it's even detected.

This is exactly what happened in Italy 10-14 days before other EU countries...and the other countries witnessed this and did exactly the same mistakes. They should have been able to learn and adopt preemptive measures, still each country's contagion curve is more or less exactly the same.

I don't really know the situation in the US so I won't speak for that. It's true that your geography is much different from Europe, you have huge metropolitan areas separated by thousands of miles of almost empty land, I think the contagion can spread mainly by air travel so it should be easier to keep it in check.

Conversely, most of Europe is an almost continuos succession of medium and small town extremely close to one another, so controlling people's movement is really difficult.

 

Anyway, unfortunately as I said the numbers tell very little unless the whole population is tested, and this will not happen in the near future, and maybe never.

Minutes ago our prime minister announced that the lockdown will be extended until May 3rd. It started on March 9th, so it will be almost 2 complete months.

Tough times.

Just hoping that everybody (myself included) stays safe.

[xKnuckles]

.

 

But it's not that simple. He's a little lost and has some significant ongoing battles with psychological and emotional challenges. Being around us has been a source of stability and ease and structure that has been really helpful for him. I'm sick to my stomach over this. She is in tears. I feel summarily horrible. I have no idea if it was even the right thing to bring any of this up this morning. I should have kept my mouth shut.

 

Hi Tim. As usual, there has been excellent advice given here; saying most of what I would have said to you had I got in first.... So I will just add this. As well as doing the right thing for yourself, you are - by allowing him to make sacrifices in order to shield you - giving him the opportunity to experience caring for someone else in a very direct way. This is a big deal. Probably most of us have experienced it during this experience: that good feeling of protecting someone else from whatever invisible danger we might pose. Of doing our bit to see them safe through the crisis. It is important and it is necessary. And to someone with psychological and emotional challenges, maybe the ability to fulfil that role might actually help them a little with their own problems of self esteem. Maybe he will stand a little taller as a result.

 

You will doubtless all be in contact with him in many other electronic ways. Through doing so you are relieving him not just of the danger of giving you the disease and then having to live with that knowledge; but also of the worry of having done so after every single visit. To be free of that sort of worry is also a huge thing. Your decision is the only sensible one for you; but may also turn out to be the means of teaching him much that is worth learning.