Corona Virus thread

[Adan]

 

Well, you did not respond to that particular part of my previous post, so let me ask you again, do you feel the reporting on the situation in Italy is commensurate with the data from the Italian National Health Service?

 

I provided evidence, but other than Majuscule nobody has bothered to address that.

 

Speaking for myself, I don't have time to wade through the weeds with you. My days are a blur of trying to not get fired from my job while homeschooling my kids, who seem to think this is just a fun vacation and that I'm here to entertain them 14 hours a day. Around 10 pm, when everyone else is asleep, I crawl to my keyboard and try to practice a bit. Pass out, wake up, do it all again.

 

I'm grateful to Keyboard Corner for helping me remember there's a music world to come back to someday.

 

I think it's great that you're using your time this way. You're making a serious attempt to learn some science, and that's far more than most people do before airing their opinions online. You will benefit from your efforts, even if no one else does.

 

The NY Times is quite good about presenting differing views. There are liberal rags out there, but the NYT is not one of them, imo.

[Adan]

 

 

Anyway, I feel like I'm done here. Clearly, the majority of folks do not need to hear dissenting views at this time, and I think peace and unity are ultimately more important. So I'll take a timeout and maybe revisit this thread when the mood has changed.

 

In all honesty, I think it's unrealistic to expect a bunch of musicians to take a deep dive into data with you. It's not your dissenting positions that are a problem, it's your methodology ;>

 

I may be more invested in this thread than most because my family has been struggling to figure out what the f&ck is medically wrong with us for the past month. But I should probably step back a bit. Spending too much time here.

[David Emm]

That was excellent! Its a mutant form of coping that's proving to be darkly funny. I've always enjoyed laughing at horrific things too much, but sometimes its that or go postal. Tight musicianship & a great mix here, too. By the time the viral wave recedes to a level that allows things to restart, there should be a double CD offered called "Plague Mix." This should be on it.

[pjd]

Hi --

 

Usually I blog about music technology, but I just wrote a serious of posts related to COVID-19 and the graphs. charts and data the media have been throwing at us. You're welcome to read it if you'd like to:

 

http://sandsoftwaresound.net/covid-19-numeracy-round-up/

 

No politics. I wrote this stuff just to get my head around the numbers and maybe provide some resources for STEM educators, etc.

 

I'll be switching back to music posts soon. Finally catching up on those home studio projects that never quite seemed to get done (new VSTi, recording demos for the church group, etc.) Only trips out are grocery runs.

 

Stay healthy, everybody -- pj

 

http://sandsoftwaresound.net

[Jazzmammal]

About the 30% false negative thing. Dr. Brix took a question about that during the news conference this afternoon. She flatly said the data does not support that and referred to confirmed testing percentages in NY. Right now the overall percentage of confirmed cases to tests is 38%. That's just overall, she said there are pockets where that number is as high as 66%. She then pointed out if the 30% false negative report is accurate you have to add that to the confirmed case percentages. She then proposed this question to the questioner. Do you think that the overall number in NY is actually 68% with some pockets literally at 100%? She just waved her hand and said that's ridiculous and referenced what sounded like a standard database that doctors use but I didn't catch the name of. She said flatly the stats do not support that at all. She went on to reference all the different numbers from all over the country with California being the lowest at 8%. Which brings me to this:

 

California Herd Immunity

 

This is a very interesting article I just found. It's about what I've been discussing with friends calling it the "California Mystery". We get over 1 million visitors from China per year and it's been going for many years. There is still no huge spike in cases.

 

This is a fairly detailed article quoting many health professionals and the main point I get from it is the notion that COVID 19 was actually spreading starting last fall. He quotes Italian sources about that. This goes to the point that China has been lying to us all along not only about their true numbers of cases but when it actually started. He then simply questions why are there no huge spike in cases? He suggests, not flatly says, merely suggests that gazillions have already has this it just wasn't identified so there is a California Herd immunity. No proof yet but very interesting none the less.

 

To go along with this I've been reading other articles about the subject of modelling this virus. It's all brand new. I can't quote all the myrid models and results but many have been already proven to be very wrong. NY should have 50,000 people needing ICU's already, they're not close to that. I just don't know, this thing is obviously serious and we need to take it seriously and I specifically remember Gov Newsom saying something like 20 million Californians will have caught this within 60 days and that was about two weeks ago. Yes, it's serious but I just don't see it being THAT serious.

 

Bob

[ksoper]

Yes, it's serious but I just don't see it being THAT serious.

 

Bob

 

Tell that to someone who just lost a friend or family member.

[Adan]

 

California Herd Immunity

 

 

The author appears to have no medical expertise, nor does he make much effort to cloak his political agenda. But I skimmed it enough to get the gist of his argument. It's an interesting and plausible theory, among other plausible theories, for the low number of cases in CA.

 

From what I can tell, people around the Bay Area are taking the shelter in place very seriously.

 

A unfolding pandemic in the internet age exposes to the public what people inside the science community well know -- that science is a messy, argumentative process that proceeds through theory and counter-theory, thesis and anti-thesis. Folks who only pay attention during disease outbreaks may think the disagreements among experts is reflecting politics, It's closer to the truth to say that's just how science works.

[J. Dan]

I didn't read everything but I see you guys talking about reliability of tests. Keep in mind there are something now like 4 different types of tests with different methods of getting results ranging from sending off to labs, to onsite machines that get results in hours, to one that has results in 45 minutes, and the latest that is just now going out can get results in 15 minutes. I would imagine there is quite a bit of variation in reliability since they are different methods and come from different manufacturers. Most importantly, the earlier tests that had gone out came from China, and yes I heard REALLY low reliability rates from those....on the order of 50/50 or 60/40 range. So I can see where that might have come from, but we are moving to different tests that are being manufactured in the US.

[Jazzmammal]

[Tell that to someone who just lost a friend or family member.

 

Dude. You can say that about every single thing that causes somebody's death. Uncle Joe was killed in a car crash. It's a tragedy for him and his family but not a big deal in the context of millions of people. Nobody including me is being flippant about this. That statement is just my opinion nothing more but the more I think about it the more I'm standing by it. 20 million cases and 200,000 deaths is not happening in California in 45 days or 60 days or by the end of the year. Not even 10% of that. LA County has 25% of the states population at 10 million. Today's total in LA County stands at 4,045. I've been watching it since Monday, it's gone up about 500 cases a day. That's linear, not exponential but of course that could change. Even if it does spike, we're going from that to 5 million in a few months? That's all I'm saying here, I'm not trivializing this or saying it's not serious, it is. Just not close to that level of seriousness.

 

Adan, I agree with that thinking completely but the Bay Area has nothing on the SoCal area. Everybody is doing all those things which is one of many reasons for my thinking about these projections from the governor. Unlike so many opinions this one will be easy to check, just give it a few months.

 

Bob

[Markay]

On a lighter note the State of Queensland here has closed its borders, but granted an exemption for the Easter Bunny.

[Outkaster]

Be glad you guys aren't in NY...

[Stokely]

I don't see how anyone can point at "number of cases" as meaning anything in most of the US. Testing is haphazard, largely not available, and results aren't coming back for days or even weeks with some of the tests. I know several people that had symptoms and couldn't get tested. My uncle has been waiting many days for his results. NYC has been doing a lot of actual testing, and hey! they show a LOT of cases.

 

Someone or someones have REALLY done a keystone cop job about testing and it continues to be a farce. Is South Korea that much better organized/smarter than this country?

[Al Quinn]

It's very serious in NY. My son is a carpenter. In the past week he built a temporary morgue in Manhattan and a temporary hospital in a convention center in Westchester. The pics he sent from the job sites are chilling. For anyone who thinks this is normal circle of life stuff please take a closer look at how the healthcare system is being overloaded. The same healthcare system that handles the normal cycle of life stuff in a routine way can't handle this crisis. To my way of thinking, doctor's shouldn't have to decide which patient gets the medical attention they need and which don't simply because there aren't enough resources available for all patients. That scenario leads to unnecessary deaths, which is unacceptable. The folks in Italy and Madrid know what I'm taking about.

[dsetto]

There's the possibility that CA numbers aren't exponential in part due to early and effectual implementation of social distance which deeply makes an impression on public awareness and individual behavior. (I.e., slowing down the increase of gain before bashing into distortion and feedback when the speakers are big, and your ear drums have had it.) It remains a tinderbox, influenced by its leadership and people.

 

Also, the car dependency has likely attenuated its early spike.

 

The CA Herd Immunity (NR) article ends its 2nd paragraph with an assertive, now-to-now comparison of NYC as part of its groundwork for its many questions. To me, this undermines the credibility of its author.

 

And re: the virus having hit CA last fall. ... It's a novel virus. New. It spreads easily, and secretively. The susceptible can get hit very hard with it. Could it have reached the point of inculcating herd immunity, undetected? ... While the weather says rain, I will attempt to stay dry. This rain, we don't see. I do not want to drown on land. I do not want to cause anyone else to drown on land.

[Stokely]

It doesn't seem very logical that Chinese visitors to CA would start an early herd immunity, yet NYC is suddenly overwhelmed? Tons of Chinese people in NYC, we know a few personally that went back and forth to China over the holidays. Granted, I don't think those particular people went to Wuhan for whatever difference that makes.

[Adan]

Hasn't it been shown that viruses can move through heating and AC systems? It would follow that you would expect more spread in a city like NY than in Los Angeles.

 

Regarding modeling generally, even the leading edge experts acknowledge that the current models have a very wide range of uncertainty. For example, they all suffer from the garbage in garbage out problem. If China is distorting it's numbers then predictions based on those numbers will be badly flawed. But you have to ask, if we don't use these deeply flawed models to help predict what's going to happen, what do we use instead?

[Adan]

It doesn't seem very logical that Chinese visitors to CA would start an early herd immunity, yet NYC is suddenly overwhelmed? Tons of Chinese people in NYC, we know a few personally that went back and forth to China over the holidays. Granted, I don't think those particular people went to Wuhan for whatever difference that makes.

 

My son developed a fever 5 days after a new student from China started in his 1st grade class. This was a month ago. A few days after his fever started, we all had it and have been battling it ever since. We're getting better ever so gradually. We're convinced it's Covid because we've ruled out everything else. The specialists at UCSF agree with that assessment, notwithstanding that we've been tested twice with no positive results. The good news is that, if this is true, we'll have some immunity.

 

So the CA Herd Immunity theory strikes a personal chord of plausibility with me!

 

As an aside, man, were we livid when we learned the Chinese student was in his class. The school gave us notice the night before. Their assurance to us was "we followed all the CDC guidelines, so you have nothing to worry about." This was around the time news broke that the CDC had botched the test development, causing everyone to lose a month of testing.

[Mr. Nightime]

I have a Ring doorbell, and have subscribed to the Neighborhood Watch feature.

 

I got a notification yesterday that the MediCare facility about 2 miles from me was doing testing.

 

We're being very careful with social distancing and stay at home, so I don't see the need for us to be tested at this time, but it's comforting to know that the tests are getting distributed out away from the main cities.

 

We're skipping a family get together tomorrow out of caution. We're going to miss out on a birthday party for a 4 year old, but he's OK with it. Grauntie Cheryl told him that when this is allover she and Gruncle Ronnie (me) would take him to Disney World.

 

More and more people are being affected by this. One of my coworkers just lost a really old friend to COVID-19

[Doerfler]

We're skipping a family get together tomorrow out of caution.

 

With all due respect, who is having family get togethers now? I wouldn't go either. I have to have a letter printed out that I keep in in my car from a pretty high up Gov't official just to travel back and forth to work, should I be pulled over by the police for being on the road.

[Jazzmammal]

Wuhan seems to be some kind of special city for Chinese travelers and I have no idea why. Several articles I've read about Italy mentions all the thousands of travelers who were continuing to go back and forth from China to Italy were from Wuhan. One reason Italy is being hit so hard is they did not stop that travel for weeks after we did.

 

Concerning supplies getting to New York, during the press conference yesterday an admiral was introduced who's a logistics specialist and he went into great detail about finding new sources and gathering them up really quickly and getting them out to the hardest hit areas. He wasn't specific enough at one point and VP Pence stepped in to clarify that a whole planeload of medical supplies was being loaded onto an aircraft right then while he was speaking and would be delivered to hospitals in NY this morning. Things are moving very fast on that front.

 

One point in that article that I completely agree with is idea of counting as a fatality someone in their 80's who caught the virus and died. Friends and myself have discussed this point many times. All of us know or knew people 85 years old or older over the years. My father passed at 87. When anybody gets to that advanced age they really do have one foot in the grave and catching a new virus is just one of many factors that could push them over the edge. To simply say they died of COVID 19 and get counted as a virus death is not right imho. If anyone reading this is that age, I'm sorry but I'm speaking the truth and you probably know it all too well. I'm 74 if that helps any. To use Italy again, they have the oldest population in the world and a large percentage of their elderly deaths were 84 and older.

 

Anyway on a positive note I'll say again, social distancing, wipes, soap and water and being paranoid about this will get us all through this thing. Hang in there and be well.

 

Bob

[MAJUSCULE]

Is South Korea that much better organized/smarter than this country?

 

I'm sorry, but lefrickinduh. The sooner the US understands it isn't #1 in everything, and especially not public healthcare, the better.

[Morizzle]

Is South Korea that much better organized/smarter than this country?

 

Well. They've been in the news as they've had the first registered corona patient on the same day as the US. The US has 24 times more cases than Korea while the population is only six times as big.

Do those numbers mean anything at this point? Je ne sais pas.

[Morizzle]

Is South Korea that much better organized/smarter than this country?

 

I'm sorry, but lefrickinduh. The sooner the US understands it isn't #1 in everything, and especially not public healthcare, the better.

 

LOL! You chose the more direct way to say it.

[Lady Gaia]

[Tell that to someone who just lost a friend or family member.

 

Dude. You can say that about every single thing that causes somebody's death.

 

The number of things you can say that about that double their number of victims every few days is small, and those are the ones we should freak out about. I have yet to see anyone overreact to this threat, and if everyone did it would be over in just a few weeks. As it is, it's the skeptics that are going to keep the infection rate (which we can't see due to lack of testing) and the resulting death rate on an exponential growth curve. Getting it down to linear is about the best we've seen any US state do so far. Sub-linear will take a whole lot more cooperation from the public, and I just don't see it in present American society.

 

We will never find out how bad it could have been, but it will likely be bad enough to make us wish we had done a whole lot more.

[Bif_]

We will never find out how bad it could have been, but it will likely be bad enough to make us wish we had done a whole lot more.

 

A profound statement!! I agree.

[Bill H.]

Most coronacvirus patients who end up on ventilators go on to die

 

[Stokely]

Is South Korea that much better organized/smarter than this country?

 

I'm sorry, but lefrickinduh. The sooner the US understands it isn't #1 in everything, and especially not public healthcare, the better.

 

 

No doubt, my post was sarcastic, probably wasn't clear. We have a LOT to work on, and our attitude of "we're number one" is not only inaccurate most of the time, but gets in the way of self-improvement. Why ever try to get better if you are already "the best"?

[Lady Gaia]

We have a LOT to work on, and our attitude of "we're number one" is not only inaccurate most of the time, but gets in the way of self-improvement. Why ever try to get better if you are already "the best"?

 

You give me hope that there may yet be enough capable of some level of introspection to lead us to a brighter future.

[MAJUSCULE]

No doubt, my post was sarcastic, probably wasn't clear.

 

I wasn't sure, had to check Hopefully everyone else reading this shares your opinion.

[Stokely]

Just read that Adam Schlesinger from Fountains of Wayne has passed away. He was 52 and I don't think he had any health issues.

 

The only song I really knew well that he wrote was "That Thing You Do"--I just am out of touch about a lot of bands and had only heard the name Fountains of Wayne...now listening to them on youtube, VERY catchy songwriting and I think I'll be checking them out more now.

 

I'm 52. This is pretty scary. Supposedly he was feeling better then took a sudden turn for the worse with breathing problems.