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Nearly all governments in the world are in the same boat: paying out eye watering sums of money to get their people through the lockdown and likely to struggle for years and years and years afterwards trying to repay it.

 

Very far from my area of expertise, but: as I understand it, for the US federal government at least, borrowing means selling bonds, and bond rates are much lower than, say, home mortgage rates, often a fraction of a percent:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us

 

So paying them back won't be the epic struggle that you expect.

 

Investors assume bonds are very safe (to the point where interest rates can even go slightly negative in crises, when investors are desperate for safe places to put their money). Everyone I've read seems opposed to any thought of defaulting.

 

I believe bonds issued by other major national governments (like the UK) are similar:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/uk

 

There is, as usual, a range of opinions on correct policy, including a loud minority that is deeply suspicious of the entire idea of government debt and would still like to go back to something like a gold standard.

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We just went to a 100% mask rule in the area. Both top health systems are enforcing the rule as it was previously optional.

"Danny, ci manchi a tutti. La E-Street Band non e' la stessa senza di te. Riposa in pace, fratello"

 

 

noblevibes.com

 

 

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The other day Cheryl and I went to CVS to pick up some of her Meds. We were both wearing masks and latex gloves.

"In the beginning, Adam had the blues, 'cause he was lonesome.

So God helped him and created woman.

 

Now everybody's got the blues."

 

Willie Dixon

 

 

 

 

 

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The other day Cheryl and I went to CVS to pick up some of her Meds. We were both wearing masks and latex gloves.

We"re much the same. Minimal, if any, contact. Any incoming supplies, unless perishable, quarantined in garage for two days. We get outside every day, either to the park (away from people) or in our backyard, wooded with trails. We"re both in our 60"s with health issues. We fall on the side of overly cautious.

I would like to apologize to anyone I have not yet offended. Please be patient and I will get to you shortly.
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Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't see what the point of the gloves are. The whole thing is about protecting your face from your hands. What difference does if make if you pick up the virus on gloves then touch your face vs your bare hands touching your face? Here's a little quote from the UK Guardian:

 

Can gloves help? Lindsay Broadbent, a virologist at Queen"s University Belfast, says no. 'If you"re touching unclean surfaces with gloves and then touching your face, you might as well not wear them at all,' she says. Gloves would work only if you changed them and washed them as methodically as you wash or sanitise your hands. 'Otherwise they"re like a second skin.'

 

It's also the same thing when you get back to your car. If the gloves have the virus on them and you're in the car the virus still gets all over the car which is why you need to have sanitizer or wipes in the car. You open the car door and you immediately wipe your hands before you touch anything in the car. Gloves-hands, what's the difference other than maybe wearing gloves is unnatural so that helps you remember to not touch your face?

 

Bob

Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
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We wear gloves in the supermarket, etc, on the rare occasions we go. You"re right, it"s a GREAT reminder to not touch your face. But we only wear them going into the store. On the way out, they"re removed inside-out and immediately discarded so they don"t touch the car, etc. Yeah, I may be overly cautious. I"ve had two open heart surgeries and have compromised breathing, but otherwise healthy.
I would like to apologize to anyone I have not yet offended. Please be patient and I will get to you shortly.
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Nearly all governments in the world are in the same boat: paying out eye watering sums of money to get their people through the lockdown and likely to struggle for years and years and years afterwards trying to repay it.

 

Very far from my area of expertise, but: as I understand it, for the US federal government at least, borrowing means selling bonds, and bond rates are much lower than, say, home mortgage rates, often a fraction of a percent:

 

This is not my area of expertise either, but what I've read so far is that this stimulus package will be funded the usual way - t-bills and long bonds issued by the Treasury.

 

This is way too much debt for the market to absorb, so the Fed (Federal Reserve Board) will have to pick up what doesn't sell - as they did during the Great Recession. During the recovery from that, they then sold what they had on the open market. And (this is where I'm not sure) I believe they're required to do so.

 

Whether or not there will ever be a market for this much debt is a good question to ask - as well as what happens if there's not. Trust in the currency is the key to a nation's solvency.

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It appears I'm still not getting through to a few members. :rolleyes::hitt:

 

If you find yourself writing something like "here I risk treading into partisan waters", PLEASE - DO NOT POST IT. It will be removed for sure.

 

If you find yourself thinking that something you may be posting could lead to political discussion, PLEASE - DO NOT POST IT. Chances are excellent it will be removed.

 

Thx,

 

Mgmt

:snax:

 

:keys:==> David Bryce Music • Funky Young Monks <==:rawk:

 

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When you find yourself thinking something political

KC admin comes to thee

Speaking words of wisdom

Let it be ...

These are only my opinions, not supported by any actual knowledge, experience, or expertise.
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Gloves-hands, what's the difference other than maybe wearing gloves is unnatural so that helps you remember to not touch your face?

 

Yeah, I think that's mostly all it is. That counts for something, though.

 

Also gloves can be cleaned (I wear 7mil all the time and can be reused) in your car after leaving like a food store or hardware store. I use Purple Power that is a 'nasty' automotive cleaner (sold at Walmart and auto stores). Purple Power (along with cleaning oil) unbeknownst to most who buy it, will kill insects, ants, flies, etc beside being a fantastic cleaner. (if you buy it you will always buy it again - I started with Castrol Super Clean that Purple Power copies but is cheaper) I spray PP on my gloves (it will make your bare hands red if not rinsed almost right away) and then have a Windex bottle full of water to rinse it off. Takes like 15 seconds. My gloves are now clean in the car and if I rub my face not to worry. Far cleaner than what soap will do.

 

I also put sandwiches in my air fryer for a couple of minutes to heat the bread surface purchased from a fast food joint. I have also taken my propane torch and 'skimmed' quickly over the outside of the sandwich in case the worker has the virus or was on the food associate gloves.

 

WH

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Like many others I wear gloves in the grocery store. I remove them after putting the grocery bags in the trunk of my car, before I get in the car.

When I get home, I debox anything that has an additional wrapper inside, such as most frozen foods: While still in the garage, I open the box and dump its contents into a clean laundry basket. The now-empty cardboard box goes into a recycling bin. Someone else brings the laundry bin upstairs.

Nothing is perfect, but it's my attempt to decrease the odds of getting infected.

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So if there wasn't enough going on around here, the closing of the sale of our rental has been moved from Friday to 4/17. The realtor sent me a white paper put out by a local mortgage broker and while I have no idea what any of it means, FHA all of a sudden won't make the loan for my buyer. Something something mortgage backed securities... I was told they have a loan, but it'll take two weeks to do the underwriting. In two weeks the number of reported cases of coronavirus will have skyrocketed. The realtor promised us this deal would happen. I'm not as confident.

 

Meanwhile, today I got the word that the sleep lab is closed for diagnostic testing. They really dragged their feet on this one. I'm furloughed at least until 5/1 when they'll reassess. I'm not unhappy about this at all as remaining open was insanity.

 

Beth went back to work tonight. In an earlier post I said they're wearing trash bags into isolation rooms. I bought her 80 extra large trash bags that fit as well as a cheap Walmart poncho will, and hopefully that will help until actual PPE arrives. They ran out of scrubs to hand out to staff at the door and are now telling them to wear their own scrubs to work and bring a change of clothes to wear home. Her shoes will remain outside, her scrubs will go straight in the wash. Droplet masks are worn for the whole shift. N95s are put on where critical and saved for reuse.

 

We're not wiping down groceries, but I don't leave the car without gloves and a mask and there's hand sanitizer inside the car. I use it on the steering wheel and shift lever, and my phone's never been cleaner. We haven't gotten food to go or delivery. My kitchen chops are coming back.

9 Moog things, 3 Roland things, 2 Hammond things and a computer with stuff on it

 

 

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Just saw a short video of some moron going around at night licking his hand and then touching all the car door handles. Location unknown, but looks like the UK. Be careful - the world is full of dangerous idiots.
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The company I work for has an office in Manila, Philippines. We were told that one of the people that works there, that is now working from home, went outside to get some fresh air. She found out that is against the rules. You can only go out if you need groceries, or for medical reasons, and for that you need a pass.

 

Seems just a bit extreme to not be allowed to go into your own yard.

 

As far as gloves, as soon as I left CVS, the gloves came off, inside out, right into the trash.

 

We have one family member that suspects that she has MS. She is in total quarantine. Will not even be there for our great nephew's birthday party this Saturday. He turned 4 today.

 

He's another we need to be careful with, He was born 2 months premature. His parents were on a military flight on their way home from Okinawa, when she went into labor. He was born at a Marine Corp air station in mainland Japan, and rushed to a Japanese NICU.

 

He is an extremely intelligent little man, but has some issues with his lungs. He lives in two households, splitting his time between his mom and grandmother, and his dad and his dad's fiance. Both households are very careful.

"In the beginning, Adam had the blues, 'cause he was lonesome.

So God helped him and created woman.

 

Now everybody's got the blues."

 

Willie Dixon

 

 

 

 

 

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Yeah I think some people will go stir crazy with the lockdown. We are down to no more than two people at least 2 metres apart anywhere in a public or private space.

 

Every grocery or take away only now coffee or food shop, that is still open, has a hand sanitiser dispenser at their entrance or on their counter for customer use. Filled the car today and for the first time realised squeezing the nozzle handle is serious touch point. No sanitiser available so washed my hands in the windscreen cleaning tub which has detergent in it.

 

One upside, gas here is back at 1995 prices.

A misguided plumber attempting to entertain | MainStage 3 | Axiom 61 2nd Gen | Pianoteq | B5 | XK3c | EV ZLX 12P

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That's a part that is like a bad joke. Gas is @ $1.859 here, but you have nowhere to go.

"In the beginning, Adam had the blues, 'cause he was lonesome.

So God helped him and created woman.

 

Now everybody's got the blues."

 

Willie Dixon

 

 

 

 

 

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That's a part that is like a bad joke. Gas is @ $1.859 here, but you have nowhere to go.

Well based on your sig I believe you are near a hot spot so best to limit travel, stay safe and also trust our NYC brethren, their familiies and those in other hot spots are also safe and well and see this through to the other side.

A misguided plumber attempting to entertain | MainStage 3 | Axiom 61 2nd Gen | Pianoteq | B5 | XK3c | EV ZLX 12P

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My poor wife has been locked down for a couple weeks, stuck at home. My job is essential so I've been going to work as normal but adapting to social distancing rules. She's so bored she even volunteered to pull targets on the sporting clays course so we're going this weekend. Social distancing is built into sporting clays for obvious reasons and the range has done a good job adapting to the situation. It will be good to get her out of the house; outdoors for a stroll thru the woods.
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Story in the NYTimes today quotes experts saying false negative tests may be as high as 30%. Various reasons why.

 

My wife tested negative but we strongly believe it's a falsy. We've all had low grade fever for almost 4 weeks. A fever lasting that long is unheard of. Except that in regards to the Coronavirus it is heard of. My wife was tested 12 days after symptoms developed. It is theorized this test is only accurate very close to the time symptoms appear.

 

We're doing fine. If it weren't for the high temp readings, we'd barely know we were sick.

Gigging: Crumar Mojo 61, Hammond SKPro

Home: Vintage Vibe 64

 

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Yes, with more studies showing a high percentage of asymptomatic spread--all this about "don't go out if you are sick" is rendered pretty meaningless. I mean, that's still good advice, but the reverse is NOT good advice (you are ok to go out if you don't have symptoms). I won't be going to any store for the foreseeable future unless I absolutely have to, and I don't really see why that would be. Publix delivers groceries, I have cat/dog food to spare (and pet stores deliver).

 

I know people that have been going out here in FL at least until very recently. Why? Because they weren't sick. Our governor won't lock things down because nobody has told him to. We will see in the next 2-3 weeks if all the people shrugging this off (including MANY retirees I saw at bars/restaurants from a distance while walking/driving, and those I know) will reflect in a huge spike. Knowing the mindset of many of the people at places at the Villages (a humongous retirement community, basically a city) this could get quite ugly. This virus has quite a long potential period between you getting it and actually getting symptoms.

 

Dr. Gupta thinks 200,000 dead is optimistic.

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Story in the NYTimes today quotes experts saying false negative tests may be as high as 30%.

 

That is very misleading. Last week I read that the tests have an accuracy of less than 50%, but spinning that as false negatives is of course more much more alarming.

 

The mainstream media is an ugly thing.

 

The Guardian has a little map with the latest numbers of total cases and deaths reported. Last week they briefly had the numbers of recoveries as well, which really put things in perspective as it was nearly two thirds of the total. For some reason that number is no longer being displayed, why?

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Story in the NYTimes today quotes experts saying false negative tests may be as high as 30%.

 

That is very misleading. Last week I read that the tests have an accuracy of less than 50%, but spinning that as false negatives is of course more much more alarming.

 

The mainstream media is an ugly thing.

 

The Guardian has a little map with the latest numbers of total cases and deaths reported. Last week they briefly had the numbers of recoveries as well, which really put things in perspective as it was nearly two thirds of the total. For some reason that number is no longer being displayed, why?

 

There isn't enough data to have an accurate figure on false negatives. 30% is just what some experts think it might be. They could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure their opinion is better than mine.

 

In my family we've had two tests, one came back "inconclusive" and the other "negative." And yet we're pretty sure we have the virus. So based on my data the false negative rate is between 50 and 100%. But I'll put more faith in experts.

 

Complaining about the media gets you nowhere. Get information from as many sources as you can. Don't trust any one source. It takes time and effort, but it's the only way to guard against being hoodwinked.

Gigging: Crumar Mojo 61, Hammond SKPro

Home: Vintage Vibe 64

 

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There have been several coronavirus threads, so not sure if this one is the best place to share this, but it at least ties the discussion back to music.

 

We wrote a song almost a year ago (well began about that long ago, finished later in the year). We had 2 songs written for our next CD and decided to go ahead and record them before moving on to the next group of song, then this stuff hit. We had a gig May 2 that got cancelled where we were going to debut the new songs. People are doing live streams in place of their cancelled gigs but we decided to put a twist on it. The first song we wrote, well before any of this, titled New World Disorder (except we spell it Dsiordre....letters out of order, get it?) touches on a lot of what's going on right now. So we decided to make a video, rather than try to perform a livestream, but debut it May 2 when the gig was supposed to be and be available after the video to answer questions and sitting behind the mixer be able to isolate tracks and give a "behind the music".

 

The concept of the video is pretty cool - a guy sitting at his computer opens a chat session and as he's typing, the song lyrics follow parts of his message. But also, just like zoom or other group meeting programs that people are using right now, windows pop up with each band member playing their parts.

 

The really cool thing is how this is all going down. The guy doing the vide just asks us to shoot video of ourselves doing what he needs for various parts of the song and we send it to him. So far the result has been phenomenal. I had my daughter shoot video of me at the piano, then set up seance style in the basement sitting on the floor with my MFB Dominion 1 in the dark surrounded by candles - concrete floor, limestone foundation - and had a few different shots wide from above and closeup of my fingers during the solos.

 

I think down the road it will be an interesting story to tell about how we did the video and what the circumstances were at the time.

Dan

 

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.

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There isn't enough data to have an accurate figure on false negatives. 30% is just what some experts think it might be. They could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure their opinion is better than mine.

 

I think you're missing the point.

 

The news is: it looks like the tests are not very accurate

 

The spin is: false negative tests may be as high as 30%

 

Another way to frame it would be: false positive tests may be as high as 30%

 

 

Why spin it at all? Why can't they just report that the tests are inaccurate? Isn't that worrisome enough?

 

 

In my family we've had two tests, one came back "inconclusive" and the other "negative." And yet we're pretty sure we have the virus. So based on my data the false negative rate is between 50 and 100%. But I'll put more faith in experts.

 

I'm sorry you feel you may have the virus, I think I had it in January and I was out for week. But I struggle to see how this relates to my point about the media?

 

Complaining about the media gets you nowhere. Get information from as many sources as you can. Don't trust any one source. It takes time and effort, but it's the only way to guard against being hoodwinked.

 

Oh, I read a lot. You call it complaining about the media, I think I merely call out needlessly sensationalist/biased reporting.

 

I take your point, the one you made a few days ago, about how it may be necessary to scare the public into doing the right thing, but that's a slippery slope, and necessary though it may be, I find it alarming. You don't have to go far back in history to see how that can go wrong.

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On a different note, here are some real stats from Italy: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-decessi-italia

 

and here's the translation: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_30_marzo_eng.pdf

 

 

For convenience, here's a summary from swprs.org:

 

According to the latest data of the Italian National Health Institute ISS, the average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10% of the deceased are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.

 

80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases. 50% of the deceased had suffered from three or more chronic diseases. The chronic diseases include in particular cardiovascular problems, diabetes, respiratory problems and cancer.

 

Less than 1% of the deceased were healthy persons, i.e. persons without pre-existing chronic diseases. Only about 30% of the deceased are women.

 

The Italian Institute of Health moreover distinguishes between those who died from the coronavirus and those who died with the coronavirus. In many cases it is not yet clear whether the persons died from the virus or from their pre-existing chronic diseases or from a combination of both.

 

The two Italians deceased under 40 years of age (both 39 years old) were a cancer patient and a diabetes patient with additional complications. In these cases, too, the exact cause of death was not yet clear (i.e. if from the virus or from their pre-existing diseases).

 

The partial overloading of the hospitals is due to the general rush of patients and the increased number of patients requiring special or intensive care. In particular, the aim is to stabilize respiratory function and, in severe cases, to provide anti-viral therapies.

 

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

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I think you're missing the point.

 

The news is: it looks like the tests are not very accurate

 

The spin is: false negative tests may be as high as 30%

 

Another way to frame it would be: false positive tests may be as high as 30%

 

 

Why spin it at all? Why can't they just report that the tests are inaccurate? Isn't that worrisome enough?

 

.

 

 

I tried to find the story again to refresh my memory. Couldn't find it and I don't have all day for this sort of thing. But as I recall the story was simply quoting an expert who thought data suggested a 30% false negative rate. That's what the expert said, there was no translation, no paraphrasing, no spin.

 

I hope the people making decisions about public policy are using the most accurate information and the best expert opinions. 50% of my family has been tested with no positive results. Given the uncertainties about testing, and given that even if we don't have it now we could be exposed tomorrow, we're still being safe. That's the only decision I have to make.

Gigging: Crumar Mojo 61, Hammond SKPro

Home: Vintage Vibe 64

 

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On a different note, here are some real stats from Italy: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-decessi-italia

 

and here's the translation: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_30_marzo_eng.pdf

 

 

For convenience, here's a summary from swprs.org:

 

According to the latest data of the Italian National Health Institute ISS, the average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10% of the deceased are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.

 

80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases. 50% of the deceased had suffered from three or more chronic diseases. The chronic diseases include in particular cardiovascular problems, diabetes, respiratory problems and cancer.

 

Less than 1% of the deceased were healthy persons, i.e. persons without pre-existing chronic diseases. Only about 30% of the deceased are women.

 

The Italian Institute of Health moreover distinguishes between those who died from the coronavirus and those who died with the coronavirus. In many cases it is not yet clear whether the persons died from the virus or from their pre-existing chronic diseases or from a combination of both.

 

The two Italians deceased under 40 years of age (both 39 years old) were a cancer patient and a diabetes patient with additional complications. In these cases, too, the exact cause of death was not yet clear (i.e. if from the virus or from their pre-existing diseases).

 

The partial overloading of the hospitals is due to the general rush of patients and the increased number of patients requiring special or intensive care. In particular, the aim is to stabilize respiratory function and, in severe cases, to provide anti-viral therapies.

 

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

 

I just skimmed the translation of the report you posted, and I'm not sure everything rhymes with the quote from the swprs summary. Particularly the last bit which, from where I'm reading, makes it sound like there have been only two deaths under the age of 40 in all of Italy. Unless I'm reading that wrong, that seems like a big mistake and pretty clearly untrue. I'm pretty sure we have at least two sub-40 deaths in Alberta alone.

 

Here's a bit from the translation:

 

9. Deaths under the age of 50 years

As of March 30th, 112 out of the 10,026 (1.1%) positive COVID-19 patients under the age of 50 died. In

particular, 23 of these were less than 40 years, 19 men and 4 women (age range between 26 and 39

years). For 2 patients under the age of 40 years no clinical information is available; the remaining 15 had

serious pre-existing pathologies (cardiovascular, renal, psychiatric pathologies, diabetes, obesity) and 6

had no major pathologies.

 

Not trying to call you out but that seems like an important thing to note. I respect your searching for true/accurate data but it's hard to find right now, whether you trust the sources or not. We're all looking for bright sides and silver linings but the best thing to do is use an ounce of prevention.

 

Also, while we can hope for a vaccine, the one major difference between a pandemic like this and a war or a financial crisis is the possibility of amnesty. We can't call a truce. We can't negotiate a bailout. The shutdown cure might suck, but it also can suck to different levels depending on what folks up top decide/folks down low demand. There's no waving a white flag when you or your loved ones stop breathing.

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