Corona Virus thread

[KenElevenShadows]

March To Stop The Spread

[KenElevenShadows]

Keptin, enemy wessel approaching.

[zephonic]

March To Stop The Spread

 

Brilliant!

[Markyboard]

I don"t want to get into a discussion about this but just passing it on in the hope it may help some out here. Per a Washington Post article on the US stimulus package passed this week 'The legislation also allows freelancers and gig workers to receive unemployment benefits for the first time'.

[dsetto]

Then there"s factoring in the quality of death for the severe cases. Slowly drowning on dry ground due to ARDS - Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

 

Adequate testing could bring the visibility needed for targeted isolation instead of current broadband closure in an attempt to reduce clipping the medical system.

 

[Song80s]

" Telehealth " or having a doctor/nurse practitioner talk to you on the phone works.

 

I have cold and allergy symptoms and got excellent guidance on the phone this morning.

 

When in doubt , try Telehealth.

[Jazzmammal]

What's an acceptable level of death to restart the economy?

 

To me that's the wrong question, it should be "What's the acceptable level of economic pain before we're forced to restart the economy?"

 

The second question is "Are we willing to put this country and the world through a second Great Depression over a virus that has a 1% fatality rate?" (more on this later} The last one lasted 10 years.

 

The 2T stimulus package is designed to keep people and businesses from going down the dumper for 4 months. There's still quite a level of economic hardship there because unemployment payments and a $1.200 check are not replacing someones full income, it's only enough to keep your head above water. I'm going to present several thoughts here in no particular order.

 

1. No way do I believe China has a better healthcare system than we do. No way do I believe with their population density and absolutely horrible "wet markets" which is just one of many health and safety things that are so far behind the rest of the world it's ridiculous, that their outcome will be better than New York City which is the worst in the US right now. I don't care what anybody says, I do not believe that. I also do not necessarily believe their numbers, they could be worse than reported but even then, they think they have this under control now and are letting people out and some are going back to work.

 

2. The death rate is way off, it's much better than is being reported because the news loves to focus on the worst outcomes. We all know now that there is a significant percentage of people who get this, have little or mild symptoms, never talk to a doctor much less go to an ER and just go on there merry way. My crystal ball is no clearer than anybody else's but I think it's reasonable to think the actual number of cases is twice what we know or ever will know. The deaths are a fixed known number. Double the cases against that number cuts the death rate in half putting the overall number roughly at 0.5%. This has been postulated by several well known experts.

 

3. The risk factor of us relaxing these restrictions and going back to work. Not today but still sooner rather than later like over a year from now is too long to wait. We already accept a whole host of risks that cause deaths. The flu is a great example because of the similarities to COVID 19. The CDC's latest estimate of flu deaths for this year is in the 30,000-60,000 range with the thinking being it's closer to the higher number. We fully accept that risk as a cost of doing business already. Where's all the hand wringing and angst about those deaths? Where are all the calls to shut down the entire country until we get a better handle on those deaths? It's because everybody knows there's only so much we can do about the flu along with cancer, heart disease and many other medical risks. This doesn't even include other risks like getting killed in a car crash. There's another 40,000 or so. Back to the flu there's always new strains every year so the annual vaccine is an educated guess. Some years it's really effective, some years not so much. Plus not everybody is willing to get vaccinated. The numbers I've read is about 70% are somewhat protected from the flu.

 

4. I'm hopeful but again as a layman what do I know, that with all the research going on we will wind up with some effective therapy's for this. Maybe the malaria drug, maybe that other one I can't remember now, maybe the blood plasma thing, or something else entirely new. All are being tested right now.

 

5. Everybody has been well trained now in personal sanitation just like the example written above of what two strangers did to complete the sale of a keyboard. If everybody went back to work tomorrow, it would not be even close to like it was before this started. Once supplies catch up to demand there will be hand sanitizers and wipes on every desk, in our car, our homes and people will be constantly wiping down everything, doing tricks like grabbing a paper towel in the bathroom to use on the door handle or gas pump handles, all that kind of stuff. The result of all this cleanliness is not only will the incidence of COVID 19 go way down but so will the overall incidence of any kind of infections including the flu and the huge numbers of other types of infectious diseases out there. The reduction in the number of deaths from all those other infections could offset the new numbers from COVID 19 by itself so overall we could wind up with about the same risk of dying from these things as we had before this started. Again, just a thought not an outright prediction but I think it's reasonable.

 

In conclusion I don't think we're going to wind up with even a fraction of the dire predictions I see in news articles. Absolutely we must do what we're doing to flatten the curve and protect our health care system from getting overwhelmed. Once we get past this initial glut of cases, once all the different things going on with non medical manufacturing companies like Ford, GM and many others building ventilators, protective gear for our health care professionals and everything else, this thing is manageable. We will lift these restrictions, we will go back to work and carry on. I don't know exactly when but two months could be it.

 

Unfortunately since this is a musicians forum, I think the outlook for us is still pretty bleak. All these things I just outlined doesn't help with a "Lets have a party!" gig. There's also the question of who is going to want to sit in a theater with 1,500 people to watch a Broadway show or concert or a movie? What about huge crowds at sporting events or Disneyland? This whole thing will be deeply ingrained into everybody's psyche for years and years to come even if my thinking is correct and this winds up in a year or so being ok. An entire society going though this collective trauma has to have some kind of long term effect so will people be willing to go out in crowds in the relatively near term? People certainly have a need for all those things we all want to go out and have fun, go to a Lakers game, go to shows but will we really actually do that? Or will we simply hold back and wait a while longer? Eventually we will, of course. But will it be in time for the summer concert season or longer? No clue.

 

Bob

[ksoper]

One thing I haven't seen talked about is the long-term effects on the survivors who had been hospitalized. I wonder if we're going to have a bunch of people who survive this but due to the lung damage it seems to cause, will end up poor quality of life and/or shortened lifespans because of what they've been through.

 

 

abc news lasting effects of covid

[Bill H.]

^ and this:

 

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/a-medical-worker-describes-terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid-19-even-in-his-young-patients

 

It's pretty scary stuff. In New Orleans everyone with Covid-19 put on a ventilator is also put in physical restraints because all they want to do is pull the tube out.

 

40% of those with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) will not come out of it alive. Of those that do, many will suffer permanent lung damage from the positive pressure of a ventilator.

 

Ventilators are a last resort, and vaccines are a long way off. I think our best chance of getting our lives at least somewhat back to normal would be some kind of drug combination that would help the body fight this disease, and get the mortality rates closer to where they are with seasonal flu. The optimist in me hopes that will happen in a few weeks.

[Joe Muscara]

Thanks, guys. That's what I was afraid of, and another answer to those who act like "a few dying is no big deal, no worse than â¦." The statement that "The long-term effects of being put on a ventilator could become a reality for hundreds of thousands of Americans" is a terrible thought.

[Jazzmammal]

Well, here's a somewhat happier video a friend just sent me.

 

[video:youtube]

 

Bob

[zephonic]

Thanks, guys. That's what I was afraid of, and another answer to those who act like "a few dying is no big deal, no worse than â¦." The statement that "The long-term effects of being put on a ventilator could become a reality for hundreds of thousands of Americans" is a terrible thought.

 

Joe, there's no need for this, nobody has said "a few dying is no big deal". Should we not try to have an honest discussion? Isn't that what forums are for?

[Adan]

 

In conclusion I don't think we're going to wind up with even a fraction of the dire predictions I see in news articles.

 

 

 

Not to be overlooked is the psychological gamesmanship, for lack of a better term, inherent in this whole exercise. There's a broad spectrum of people from very responsible -- those who will take this seriously even on the slightest warning -- to the irresponsible -- those who will not take it seriously no matter what. If you don't change the behavior of the folks towards the irresponsible part of the spectrum then everyone else's efforts are undermined.

 

Consider the Florida Spring Breaker who goes home and introduces it to his small town in Minnesota or Arkansas. Everyone else got the message, he didn't, now it's in his community.

 

So let's hypothesize the messages you hear in the media are overly dire. Is that a bad thing? You have to consider what it will take to get enough people to do the right thing in the short term.

 

We're familiar with the idea of a self-fulfilling prophecy -- the idea that believing something makes it happen. This is like a self-negating prophecy. We scream from the rooftops THIS WILL BE HORRIBLE! specifically so that it will not be.

[stillearning]

What's an acceptable level of death to restart the economy?

 

To me that's the wrong question, it should be "What's the acceptable level of economic pain before we're forced to restart the economy?"...

We differ on a few points. You quote a known mortality rate of 1%, and cut that in half due to underreporting of known cases, yielding .5%. Most numbers show a known mortality rate of 2+%, cutting that in half yields somewhere over 1%.

 

But the biggest difference I see is what will happen when we see the actual spike, or peak that"s expected in several weeks. Already health care workers are testing positive for the virus, thus being removed from caregiving, as the number of those needing care is growing exponentially. We"re short on beds, masks, ventilators, and just about everything else caregivers will need more and more of. Ford, etc. will not be supplying ventilators anytime soon. It will likely only spiral from there. The sick and dying growing exponentially as the available care heads the other way.

 

In our lives, the flu has never caused anything like this.

[stillearning]

This analysis made me sit up. It is in-depth and a heavy read but the conclusions are optimistic

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

This is probably one of the better summations of this situation that the world is facing I"ve read to date. Thanks for posting.

[zephonic]

We're familiar with the idea of a self-fulfilling prophecy -- the idea that believing something makes it happen. This is like a self-negating prophecy. We scream from the rooftops THIS WILL BE HORRIBLE! specifically so that it will not be.

 

That's a good point.

 

A self-fullfilling prophecy would be people running to buy up all the toilet paper and then conclude "all the stores are out of toilet paper, good thing I stocked up".

[Joe Muscara]

Thanks, guys. That's what I was afraid of, and another answer to those who act like "a few dying is no big deal, no worse than â¦." The statement that "The long-term effects of being put on a ventilator could become a reality for hundreds of thousands of Americans" is a terrible thought.

 

Joe, there's no need for this, nobody has said "a few dying is no big deal". Should we not try to have an honest discussion? Isn't that what forums are for?

I wasn"t directing that at anyone here. I meant it as a general statement, a paraphrase, and towards those out there who are saying things like that. I wasn"t trying to shut anyone here down. I am concerned that there are discussions in places that are acting like the death rate is all there is to this, and I"ve been making the point that it is not.

[David Emm]

This one is NSFW "vulgar," so I'm warning you now, but it also has a definite transcending charm. As dark as the situation is, the sense of humor and acts of kindness & connection give me a needed lift. Its sobering & daunting to consider everyone on the front lines. Thank you all.

 

Its too bad that its already a "not found" on this Twitter video, but its hilarious. In a super-thick, not-fully-absorbal Scottish brogue, this gentleman starts politely, saying "This is a public service announcement" & then starts cussing at top volume with his eyes all but bugging out. "STAY HOME, YE FOOKIN' C*NTS! I SEE YOU ON THE DAMN BALL COURTS AND YE SHOULDNA BE THERE A'TALL! THERE'S A FOOKIN' PANDEMIC ON! GET YER ARSES HOME! YE THINK YOU'RE INVINCIBLE!? WELL YOU'RE NOT! PEOPLE ARE DYIN', YE SELFISH C*NTS! STAY HOME! YOU'RE JUST SPREADIN' MISERY! STAY HOME, 'CAUSE IF I SEE YE OUT HERE, I'LL KICK YER ARSES, YE SELFISH C*NTS!"

 

Talk about whistling past the graveyard! BEST POST OF THE WEEK!!!!

 

And good afternoon to the guy wetly coughing

over all the meat in Marks & Spencer food hall,

have a great f*cking day there pal.

~ Warren Ellis

[ksoper]

My wife's test was negative for which I'm grateful. She'll return to work Tuesday night. She learned this evening that the hospital has no isolation gowns. They're handing out scrubs when you walk in the door and wishing you good luck.

 

My own workplace, against the recommendation of the American Academy of Sleep Medicine and contrary to every hospital-based sleep lab in the area, remains open for diagnostic testing. Techs were given the option of working or staying home without pay. As soon as I told the manager that Beth tested negative he wanted me back on the schedule. I asked about new cleaning protocols, screening methods, or ppe and was told nothing had changed. The CEO texted to check in on me and my wife and I told him that I was going to stay at home, at least until 4/1 to see how the next few days pan out. I reminded him that techs spend more time with patients than any other employee, and usually within three feet of their heads. A sleep study is an elective procedure and elective surgeries have been temporarily discontinued in the area. We should not be running studies for the safety of both techs and patients.

 

I may be signing up for Social Security far earlier than I had planned.

[Markay]

'The Boomer Remover" as it"s been currently called amongst certain demographics.

 

Yes, among the moron demographic.

 

Young people have a way-too-high chance of ending up in the ICU with this, and getting lung damage IF they have to be ventilated. They just don't tend to die nearly as often as "boomers". Probably would be a good wake-up call to spend a week solid gasping for air surrounded by dying people and not being allowed to have visitors.

 

Apparently this has gone viral. A boomers response?

 

"Our parents were called on to fight world wars, you are being called on to wash your hands and sit on the couch. Dont fuck this up,"

[ElmerJFudd]

'The Boomer Remover" as it"s been currently called amongst certain demographics.

 

Yes, among the moron demographic.

 

Young people have a way-too-high chance of ending up in the ICU with this, and getting lung damage IF they have to be ventilated. They just don't tend to die nearly as often as "boomers". Probably would be a good wake-up call to spend a week solid gasping for air surrounded by dying people and not being allowed to have visitors.

 

Apparently this has gone viral. A boomers response?

 

"Our parents were called on to fight world wars, you are being called on to wash your hands and sit on the couch. Dont fuck this up,"

 

I"m not one to reduce a complex issue to a sound bite. But there"s a sting of truth to this.

 

(Disclaimer: My dad"s dad was a pow put to labor on the Burma Railroad. And my dad was just a kid when the Japanese threw him and his siblings in an internment camp. I"ve always felt blessed my childhood was nothing like that and it pleased my pop to no end in this regard as well)

[ksoper]

 

2. The death rate is way off, it's much better than is being reported because the news loves to focus on the worst outcomes. We all know now that there is a significant percentage of people who get this, have little or mild symptoms, never talk to a doctor much less go to an ER and just go on there merry way. My crystal ball is no clearer than anybody else's but I think it's reasonable to think the actual number of cases is twice what we know or ever will know. The deaths are a fixed known number. Double the cases against that number cuts the death rate in half putting the overall number roughly at 0.5%. This has been postulated by several well known experts.

 

 

Bob, there's a lot in your post I agree with, but I know for a fact that the deaths are underreported. I don't know why.

[Markay]

Thanks, guys. That's what I was afraid of, and another answer to those who act like "a few dying is no big deal, no worse than â¦." The statement that "The long-term effects of being put on a ventilator could become a reality for hundreds of thousands of Americans" is a terrible thought.

 

Joe, there's no need for this, nobody has said "a few dying is no big deal". Should we not try to have an honest discussion? Isn't that what forums are for?

I wasn"t directing that at anyone here. I meant it as a general statement, a paraphrase, and towards those out there who are saying things like that. I wasn"t trying to shut anyone here down. I am concerned that there are discussions in places that are acting like the death rate is all there is to this, and I"ve been making the point that it is not.

I am deeply saddened by the discussion around an acceptable level of deaths. Maybe I am conditioned by my environment.

 

Australia wide, as of now, here have been 16 deaths with 3,986 diagnosed as infected. That is death rate of 0.4%. At the time where there were 8 deaths we went into a National level 1 lock down. Since then all but 2 States have closed their borders. Tasmania has evicted all tourists. In the space of week over 1 million people have become unemployed. Lock down may continue for at least 6 months at huge cost to Commonwealth and State finances. Many businesses may never return. But at no point has there been any discussion along the lines of " is it worth this cost if the mortality rate is 0.4%."

[Adan]

Italy's mortality rate is 9%. There are a number of reasons for that but the biggest is that the number of cases has overwhelmed treatment capacity. As has been pointed out many times already in this thread, the purpose behind the severe restrictions is to not to exceed treatment capacity because when that happens morality rates drastically increase. Whether it's worth the economic pain is still an excruciatingly difficult question. The point is, you can't assume the mortality rate remains the same whether we isolate or just go about our business.

[Markay]

The point is, you can't assume the mortality rate remains the same whether we isolate or just go about our business.

 

Well our Commonwealth Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Medical Officer of each State and Territory are united in the view that if you reduce the number of infections you will reduce the number of deaths. Hence the lock down and strict enforcement of social distancing. I guess this is no different to global warming and some will argue that "the science is not settled" on the subject. Maybe there isn't a correlation between infection and mortality, time will tell.

[Tusker]

Ken, I'm so glad your wife's test came back negative brother.

[Al Quinn]

An update from New York:

 

My son was called into Manhattan yesterday to work on emergency construction at a hospital. He"s a carpenter. He sent photos of what he worked on. It was a temporary morgue. Chilling seeing these photos. I hope he"s OK (physically and emotionally).

 

Four people I know, all in the NY metropolitan area have had Coronavirus. Three are musicians. They"ve all recovered. Two are in their mid-50"s, one is 60, and the other is in his mid 60"s. For three of them is was a rough experience. The fourth had a milder experience but lost her sense of taste and smell for awhile.

 

Me and my wife were in Boulder, Colorado visiting out daughter and while we were there this all picked up speed. We decided to not take our 3/18 flight home, rented a car, and 2,000 miles / four days later we were back home. It was a strange journey, but we"ve been home for about a week and it feels good.

 

I had this idea that if we went food shopping in the Hamptons there would be less people as it"s usually a ghost town in March. We drove 40 minutes east to Bridgehampton and it was packed. It seems that a lot of the summer crowd from Manhattan decided they"d be better off at their Hampton homes. We just turned around and headed back home to Center Moriches (which is about 50 miles east of NYC).

 

This is all so surreal. Just gotta continue social distancing and hope the other 8 million people on Long Island do the same. Compliance so far has been disappointing.

 

On the upside, it"s a great time to practice. I"m trying to improve my solo jazz piano playing.

 

Stay safe, practice social distancing, and wash your hands often!

[ElmerJFudd]

Thanks for sharing. It"s difficult for people who aren"t in and around the cities like NY and Rome to see, feel experience what is surely coming there way.

[Biggles]

If you have an attitude like ....... it will be OK

 

Then can you walk around carrying a sign that says ..... it will be OK.

 

Then the cautious, sensible ones who practice social distancing and good avoidance practices can then give you a wide berth.

 

Complacency can kill you, your parents, your partner, your kids and your neighbours, their kids etc.

 

Be OTT, but be SAFE.

 

Our NHS says that these practices could be necessary for three to six months

[ElmerJFudd]

Very informative interview, if you haven"t seem it. Clarifies a lot.

 

[video:youtube]