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OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
#3035491 03/28/20 05:23 PM
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The debate about re-starting the economy, the extension of cases by flattening the curve vs. getting it over with faster and just assuming more people will die, etc. has one glaring omission: it assumes there is a good solution. Unfortunately, sometimes in life there is no good solution, only less bad ones. In this case, any solution is basically a choice among various worst-case scenarios.

What complicates matters further is the extraordinary amount of uncertainty. We can't say "Well, we should choose this option - it will produce the following results, which we judge as being not as bad as the other options," simply because we have no concrete idea what the actual results will be from any of the options.

If society is to remain cohesive, significant sacrifices will have to be made at all levels. And I don't mean sacrifices like Apple letting people use Logic Pro X free for 90 days. In a recession (and I've lived through several of them), the economy never actually stops, but it slows way down. There are people still making money and spending money. Will the motives and results of those activities need to shift? I'm NOT framing this as a political issue ("socialism is the answer") or a religious one ("we are our brother's keeper"). I'm framing it as what it means to be a human being. Is it survival of the fittest, or is it a willingness to do whatever is necessary to maintain the fabric of society?

Or...maybe they're not mutually exclusive. Real-world example: My career got started because of a severe (albeit not catastrophic) recession. I had worked with a company that made effects, but that market was dissipating. To pay the bills I wrote "Electronic Projects for Musicians" at a time when people didn't have the money to buy effects, so they were open to making their own. Fast forward 40 years...many people in this industry reference that book as being what helped start their companies. Overall, my lack of personal wealth led eventually to the creation of significant wealth in society at large. Of course, I was just trying to pay my bills, I didn't have lofty ideas that was I was doing would eventually change the industry in some way. But it goes to show that "unintended consequences" can be beneficial, not just problematic.

What can we do now that ensures when this is all over, we're in a better, not worse, place?

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035496 03/28/20 05:56 PM
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A topic I've been trying to stay on top of as the world rapidly goes through changes.

Among the considerations is "collateral damage" if we move to quickly to "business as normal" and the virus spreads rapidly (all assumptions at this point).
The overload on the health care system could mean that folks with other conditions are unable to obtain the care they need in a timely fashion.
The supply chain problems with respirators/ventilators etc., are another factor.

It's very complex, I have no answers. All I can do at this point is exercise caution. I've limited my exposure, plenty to do at home. I am favoring a big chain store (Krogers - Fred Meyer) in no small part because I can walk there and they have disinfectant wipes available at the entrance/exit.

I already had the habit of bringing my own cloth shopping bags. New habit of not touching my face until after using the wipes at exit is in place. There is no way to be certain that one won't walk around a corner and right into a place where somebody recently sneezed into the open air. A mask may reduce that avenue of infection but you would need a professional respirator (rather than a one-size-fits-all mask) to obtain full protection from that avenue of infection. It may be important to immediately wash or "quarantine" your newly purchased items since there is no way to know who has touched it.

Short answer - I have no idea what is going to happen!!!! Be SAFE everybody!!!! Cheers, Kuru


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035497 03/28/20 06:03 PM
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Making predictions is only a means to get the thinking process going, not a way to pre-visit the future in most cases. That said, here's the things I'm thinking will take on immense significance after "the new normal" begins to take shape.

1 - income disparity will become so acute that what we now call "welfare" will become more like a right, not an unreliable and fickle, stigmatizing handout.

2 - the government will realize - no matter the politics - that government has to be yet more involved in healthcare. Again, healthcare will become more of a right than a product for sale.

3 - were young people radical in the 60s? You just wait. A new radicalism among the young is coming that will shock and shake the foundations of power and politics. Climate change will be the center focus, but the general feeling that the power brokers of the older generation have made a hopeless mess of everything will be practically universal among the young. And not just a feeling, but a burning conviction with violence not far behind.

4 - kids are going to have to, and will start on their own, growing up faster. The luxury of extended adolescence into one's 30s is going to disappear.

5 - if the economics gets bad enough, the next big headline will be about a new crime wave of massive proportions.

Good things to come?

I see families all over walking the neighborhood, biking, being together. I see people learning that civilization is fragile, that community is an absolute necessity, that the values of things like ever-increasing wealth, being the strongest and baddest, self-centered independence, and the like, pale besides the values of community, compassion, creativity, and caring.

It's the "live together or die separately" thing, no question.

nat

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035522 03/28/20 07:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
What can we do now that ensures when this is all over, we're in a better, not worse, place?

Certainly we are in for more uncertainty. No one knows where the economy and society will be at the end of the year. Fundamental assumptions about the good society and the good life may well be interrogated. As Nowarezman alluded, values like "rugged individualism" might take a hit. There may be other changes we cannot contemplate.

I love your story about creating possibilities and then an industry with an article which met a need. It's a salutary example of what an individual can do.

To me, civilization is about relationships and relationships are about trust. We can virtualize processes and markets at faster rates. We can develop new systems of trust using technologies like blockchain to mediate previously unmediatable relationships. That's abstract. Practically we can relate more actively to our loved ones and business partners with that extra measure of compassion this situation requires. That's job one. Job zero, is to stay resilient, trusting that the evolving crisis will reveal to you the qualities within you, which were waiting for just such a time to be expressed.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035529 03/28/20 08:31 PM
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One possible good is the simultaneous use of technology to reach far, but the improvement of local and national connections. Do we need to fly as much? Why not use video for many things? Simultaneously, what options are available locally now? One thing I see is that local musicians in the North Bay are no longer competing with national or international caliber artists doing shows in San Francisco or Oakland. Right now the best cello player in Sonoma County is the best available cello player in the world where I live. What would a better local community do for music? I suspect a lot. I think we need manufacturing to have a much greater local and national presence. Too much has been spread out too far in global supply chains, taking jobs and taxes with it. If the jobs, taxes and skills returned, much could be done to improve the places we live.

The biggest questions, as already suggested have more to do with how an entire society decides that the economy should run and who it should benefit and how much.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035530 03/28/20 08:34 PM
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Well Nowarezman skirted politics, but the post stays because there aren't any value judgements or boosterism of "one side or the other" involved. They're simply possible predictions.

I was watching a series of travel videos by a guy on YouTube, who had been to almost every country in the world. He was coming to the conclusion that generally, happiness was NOT proportional to wealth, and that some of the poorest societies were also the happiest. Apparently human interaction, community, cooking, and the arts brought people far more happiness than BMWs, yachts, and mansions.

Personal perspective: There was a run of years where I made a lot of money. I didn't really get to enjoy it, because almost all of it went to taking care of a dying, estranged wife who was sick for over a decade, and paying the mortgage on a house that's now in foreclosure. I'm living in an inexpensive investment condo that my daughter owns. When Gibson fired me along with a zillion other people, my severance was 3 weeks. I drive a 20-year-old used car. My HVAC is over 20 years old, and will need to be replaced soon.

I've never been happier in my entire life.

When my estranged wife died, and I could no longer pay the mortgage on what was supposed to be a dream house and investment for the future, I realized just how little money I actually needed to live. I realized that the universal currency isn't money, it's time - whether you're rich or poor, an hour lasts exactly 60 minutes. It's up to you to decide how to spend those 60 minutes. Some people are much better at spending time than others, and the best time-spenders aren't necessarily the richest folks. That's because a lot of rich people think that money is worth more than time. It isn't.

Because I don't need to earn to earn so much, I don't need to work so much. Which means I have more time to play music, and play in the kitchen with my girlfriend. I take more time to call people. I talk to my daughter just about every day, so I have a front-row seat to a fascinating and intelligent human being. I can sleep in, or stay up late, if I want. Some days I make money, some days I don't.

Do I want a fancy car? No, it costs more, the insurance is more, repairs are more, registration is more. How about a fancy house? The mortgage is more, maintenance is more, property taxes are more, and either you have to spend more time taking care of it (which you can't, because you have to make the money to maintain it) or pay someone else to do it.

Do I need a gym membership? Walking is free, and I get to say hi to the neighbors, or take a walk with a friend. There are plenty of swimmable lakes around here for long swims, and the condo has a pool.

Do I need a giant curved-screen TV? There's not enough worth watching to justify it, and if there's a really spectacular movie, I'll go to the iMax theater and be in a place where other humanoid bipeds are cheering, laughing, having tears well up, and getting emotionally involved.

What about eating out? Frankly, you can make healthier food at home...which you can do if you have time, rather than spending that time making enough money to eat out.

I'm building back my pre-Gibson career, slowly but surely. I expect I won't be broke much longer, and my income will ramp up. BUT I am not going to make ramping up income the goal. That will simply be a by-product of my learning to spend time more wisely, on things I love to do, that don't make as much money but are a helluva lot more fun.

Maybe this will happen to more people when we return to "normal," whatever that is.

Last edited by Anderton; 03/28/20 08:42 PM.
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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035537 03/28/20 09:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Well Nowarezman skirted politics, but the post stays because there aren't any value judgements or boosterism of "one side or the other" involved. They're simply possible predictions.

I was watching a series of travel videos by a guy on YouTube, who had been to almost every country in the world. He was coming to the conclusion that generally, happiness was NOT proportional to wealth, and that some of the poorest societies were also the happiest. Apparently human interaction, community, cooking, and the arts brought people far more happiness than BMWs, yachts, and mansions.

Personal perspective: There was a run of years where I made a lot of money. I didn't really get to enjoy it, because almost all of it went to taking care of a dying, estranged wife who was sick for over a decade, and paying the mortgage on a house that's now in foreclosure. I'm living in an inexpensive investment condo that my daughter owns. When Gibson fired me along with a zillion other people, my severance was 3 weeks. I drive a 20-year-old used car. My HVAC is over 20 years old, and will need to be replaced soon.

I've never been happier in my entire life.

When my estranged wife died, and I could no longer pay the mortgage on what was supposed to be a dream house and investment for the future, I realized just how little money I actually needed to live. I realized that the universal currency isn't money, it's time - whether you're rich or poor, an hour lasts exactly 60 minutes. It's up to you to decide how to spend those 60 minutes. Some people are much better at spending time than others, and the best time-spenders aren't necessarily the richest folks. That's because a lot of rich people think that money is worth more than time. It isn't.

Because I don't need to earn to earn so much, I don't need to work so much. Which means I have more time to play music, and play in the kitchen with my girlfriend. I take more time to call people. I talk to my daughter just about every day, so I have a front-row seat to a fascinating and intelligent human being. I can sleep in, or stay up late, if I want. Some days I make money, some days I don't.

Do I want a fancy car? No, it costs more, the insurance is more, repairs are more, registration is more. How about a fancy house? The mortgage is more, maintenance is more, property taxes are more, and either you have to spend more time taking care of it (which you can't, because you have to make the money to maintain it) or pay someone else to do it.

Do I need a gym membership? Walking is free, and I get to say hi to the neighbors, or take a walk with a friend. There are plenty of swimmable lakes around here for long swims, and the condo has a pool.

Do I need a giant curved-screen TV? There's not enough worth watching to justify it, and if there's a really spectacular movie, I'll go to the iMax theater and be in a place where other humanoid bipeds are cheering, laughing, having tears well up, and getting emotionally involved.

What about eating out? Frankly, you can make healthier food at home...which you can do if you have time, rather than spending that time making enough money to eat out.

I'm building back my pre-Gibson career, slowly but surely. I expect I won't be broke much longer, and my income will ramp up. BUT I am not going to make ramping up income the goal. That will simply be a by-product of my learning to spend time more wisely, on things I love to do, that don't make as much money but are a helluva lot more fun.

Maybe this will happen to more people when we return to "normal," whatever that is.

That is a fuc#ing AWESOME post!!

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035542 03/28/20 09:43 PM
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Where I work is considered a critical supplier of avionics and communications equipment for the government/military so I've been there every day. A couple weeks ago they sent some folks home in a displays manufacturing area and last week they closed down a whole manufacturing building at the main site to have an outside company come in for a thorough cleaning, that was a weird sight.

I actually wonder how many people have already had the illness and just wrote it off as common cold/flu as far back as New Years? My wife and I traveled to the East coast back then and we both contracted a cold/flu like illness that seemed to linger longer than it normally should have.

Reality sometimes bites and the only possible chance of containing this thing was probably a week before anyone knew it existed and even though I hope everyone is taking the proper precautions, I'm sure we all know that the only ones we have actual control over are ourselves. This thing is not from some alien planet though and it's well known that viruses mutate and develop new strains. In that regard it's nothing new and I doubt that anyone has ever been able to hide from a cold virus their entire life.

I take it as a positive sign that bodies aren't being bulldozed into mass graves because we're at least three months into this thing and if the survival rate wasn't extremely high that's what would be happening.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035555 03/28/20 11:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Well Nowarezman skirted politics, but the post stays because there aren't any value judgements or boosterism of "one side or the other" involved. They're simply possible predictions.

Thanks, Craig for the consideration. Sorry to have skirted...maybe you kind of know me a bit after posting back and forth for a long time (my other name on the boards was nat whilk). I am a bit scared of the future, I'll admit. Not for myself particularly - my past already represents the vast majority of my life. But I do air my concerns to see what other people think and feel. It's a tough time to know what to think...

nat

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035599 03/29/20 01:56 PM
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I don't agree with the "herd immunity" of getting back to work. Of course there are good arguments for it, namely it won't last as long, and the recession will not be as severe (this really helps the super-rich and hedge fund managers who own 80% of the stock in the USA).

The down side is that the hospitals and medical profession will swamped be way over capacity. Doctors/nurses/etc. will get the disease and/or quit (both have already happened) because of the lack of protective equipment. When the hospitals are full and the ventilators and other supplies are limited, the doctors will have this terrible choice to make --- I will try to save patient A's life and patient B, C, D, and E, "I sentence you to death".

But "flattening the curve" will minimize those problems and many more lives will be saved, including the medical professionals.

The down side of that is a prolonged recession. The upper 5% will take the biggest hit and the poorest of the poor will suffer more than the rest of us.

I don't care what the death rate is, if it happens to me or my wife it's 100%.

As Craig pointed out, time is the real currency of our lives. I will not take a chance of shortening my life to keep the rich in their gilded mansions.

Fortunately, Leilani and I have done what almost no government has done, we live below our means. The mortgage is paid of, the only debt I have is minimal car payments and we have a buffer savings account. We don't buy things on credit that we can't afford - period. That includes saxophones and guitars smile

I've lost all my work from St Pat's day through mid October, and I don't know if they are going to be cancelled or not. I had half a dozen cancel before St.Pat's as well February, March, and April are our big money months, where we make half our annual income. At least 7 months unemployment.

I'm not eager to get back to work. I'll continue to self-isolate. I happen to really love being alive, and my self-preservation instincts are in the alert mode right now.

A recession may make life hard, but death makes it impossible.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3035613 03/29/20 04:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
I don't care what the death rate is, if it happens to me or my wife it's 100%.
Yes. The priority should be to minimize the number of people getting it. The second to make sure adequate care is available for those who do,

Quote
As Craig pointed out, time is the real currency of our lives. I will not take a chance of shortening my life to keep the rich in their gilded mansions.
Well, I understand what you're saying, but that's a sweeping generalization and does sound political. The people that I'm seeing get hurt the most are small business owners and hourly wage earners. They are the backbone of this economy, because the USA is a consumer-driven country.

I hesitate to tar any group of people with the same brush. Rich people who do good are like Auto-Tune - when used intelligently, you don't know it's being used. I've seen several rich people up close and personal. If they're well-known, everybody wants something from them. I've known a few who were extremely generous, but they never let it be known because they didn't want to be hit up all the time. I've also known some who managed to avoid the limelight altogether. Some of them inherited money, or came into money as a one-time thing, like from selling a company or licensing. They didn't live a life any different than you or me, and to all outward appearances, were middle class in terms of house, car, etc. (e.g., VW Passat instead of Porsche). They used their wealth to fund start up companies, give to foundations, contribute to charities with which they were aligned, etc. They thought that was a good use of money.

In any group of people you're going to find David Geffens but you'll also find others behind the scenes, who realize that the more money they have, the more they do to create change.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035617 03/29/20 04:56 PM
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It's all statistics until someone you know or a family member becomes infected.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035621 03/29/20 05:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
I was watching a series of travel videos by a guy on YouTube, who had been to almost every country in the world. He was coming to the conclusion that generally, happiness was NOT proportional to wealth, and that some of the poorest societies were also the happiest. Apparently human interaction, community, cooking, and the arts brought people far more happiness than BMWs, yachts, and mansions.
<snip>
Do I want a fancy car? No, it costs more, the insurance is more, repairs are more, registration is more. How about a fancy house? The mortgage is more, maintenance is more, property taxes are more, and either you have to spend more time taking care of it (which you can't, because you have to make the money to maintain it) or pay someone else to do it.

Do I need a gym membership? Walking is free, and I get to say hi to the neighbors, or take a walk with a friend. There are plenty of swimmable lakes around here for long swims, and the condo has a pool.

Do I need a giant curved-screen TV? There's not enough worth watching to justify it, and if there's a really spectacular movie, I'll go to the iMax theater and be in a place where other humanoid bipeds are cheering, laughing, having tears well up, and getting emotionally involved.

What about eating out? Frankly, you can make healthier food at home...which you can do if you have time, rather than spending that time making enough money to eat out.

I'm building back my pre-Gibson career, slowly but surely. I expect I won't be broke much longer, and my income will ramp up. BUT I am not going to make ramping up income the goal. That will simply be a by-product of my learning to spend time more wisely, on things I love to do, that don't make as much money but are a helluva lot more fun.

Maybe this will happen to more people when we return to "normal," whatever that is.

Awesome, insightful post. The whole thing is a great post, although I've shortened it here. As many of you know, I've been sort of living like this my whole life. I've never owned a new car, rarely have owned a new computer (I am still running Pro Tools on a Mac Pro 1,1 because it works great still), never bought a giant house so that it would be easy to make mortgage payments, and buy most of my camera equipment used. Used furniture, used whatever. Doesn't matter. Don't eat out much, and when I do, I make it count by eating something fantastic, not a bunch of garbage.

The whole point is not of frugality, but to this to create additional time and experiences (and for most of us, creating art), creating new opportunities and trips and time with friends and family.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035623 03/29/20 05:26 PM
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Getting back to the future...

I do think this will impact the way companies structure their businesses with white-collar workers. Think of all the pollution and waste that goes into people commuting in cars every day. Some companies are afraid of telecommuting, because they think employees will goof off. However, most music magazines I deal with now have most, if not all, of the editorial staff working from their homes. Originally this was done as a cost-cutting measure, but it turns out when they're at home, they have their studios nearby. This is great for reviews.

Also, creativity and office hours don't necessarily go together ("turn your creativity switch on at 9 AM, and turn it off at 5 PM"). A lot of my best ideas come when taking walks. The companies to whom I consult benefit a lot from my working at home. Working when the creative juices are flowing gets more done, in less time. Since I bill by the hour, I cost less as a result.

Of course there are some situations where people need to work in a centralized location, but do they really need to be there all the time? The five-day work week is a fairly recent development. Ford introduced it because there was more automation coming into their factories, and the company decided that giving people an extra day off would increase productivity and help the economy, because people would have more free time to spend on going to movies, go shopping for clothes, or whatever. The five-day work week stuck because it didn't impact the company's bottom line at all. Some would argue it improved the bottom line. There's also no reason not to have flex time. Gibson didn't mind that I usually came in around 10 instead of 9, because I stayed until 6 or 7. That last hour or two when people weren't around was tremendously helpful in terms of getting projects done without interruptions. The bottom line was that I was more productive with that schedule, and companies aren't going to complain if you do something that ends up making you more productive.

With increasing automation, expect to see four-day work weeks become the norm. Some companies have experimented with the idea. The most recent study was from a company in New Zealand. Bottom line was productivity didn't increase, but it didn't drop, either. Also, during busy periods, some employees had to do five days to get things done. But overall, the results were that people who were able to manage their lives better were happier and better employees.

Just-in-time inventory control prevents companies from tying up capital in things sitting on a shelf, but as soon as anything happens to the supply lines, JIT is a liability. "Inventory" might not be such a dirty word when this whole thing is over.

The Gig Economy is here, and it's real. However workers are in a precarious position, and generally have few or no benefits. I could easily see something like a re-invention of the union for gig economy people, where everyone contributes to a pool in return for benefits like health insurance, and where there are negotiations for working conditions. Some gig economy employers are good about this, some drive their people mercilessly. There needs to be a balance.

I guess what I'm saying is that a societal event with the magnitude of the corona virus will force people to re-examine their lives. When Aunt Joan dies in a hospital, how many people are going to wish they would have had more time to spend with Aunt Joan? With reduced income, how many people will find that living within their means is far better than living beyond their means? I think that when the dust settles and the last ventilator is turned off, there will be far-reaching changes. We'll see.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035634 03/29/20 05:41 PM
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There may also be an uptick in people's general concern for their health. There can be a downside medically to being on a respirator, even after recovery. We may a lot of people with a fresh appreciation that their life was saved, but also sobered by a new fragility that they cannot undo. I do hope that you are right Craig, and that we see a lot more people doing the calculation on what is truly important and what that means. I am in white collar America, and I know many who are thrilled with the time back from soul-less commutes, and the joy of having dinner every night with the people they love. I've worked out of my home for 25 years and occasionally an office and productivity is the least of the concerns. Silicon Valley is adjusting well. It is a small sample, and one that is generally well suited to WFH, but most companies still have most employees report to an office everyday. It is really sales that has been long-term WFH, as a matter of course. Companies figured out that it didn't make sense to desk sales forces that call on customers way back in 2000.

But for our young business development people (age 23-27), they really miss the office. They are generally outgoing people, and often live alone, renting a room, or with roommates. They prefer to work in the office by a big margin. Our engineers? They are probably thrilled if they can get the quiet and isolation they need.

That last bit is an most important bit - do you have a space that you can have as focus space, and not have work taking up your kitchen, or bedroom. We've always picked a place to live that had an extra room, converted a garage - something to make sure that exists. But that is not easy for everyone, yet makes working from home far more pleasant.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035637 03/29/20 06:01 PM
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Yeah, I've worked at home for about 25 years. I built out a little space in the garage to get the business stuff out of the regular living areas. It may only be 20 steps from my small office through the kitchen door and into the living room, but it can feel like "oh, man, great to be in here for a bit". A change of pace and environment can happen even in the confines of a small house.

The big TV location is a crucial thing. If your arrangement is open where the dining, kitchen, and some sort of family/living/den room is all open, the TV dominates 3/4 of the entire living space in terms of noise and limitations to other activities. Can be a real source of major irritation. A pair of headphones might just save a marriage smile

nat

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035640 03/29/20 06:20 PM
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An 'Open for Business' scenario, and steps towards, easing travel restrictions in the 'clean' states...in an effort to kick up economy is likely to backfire – Big Time.

The inevitable is these cleaner states will start to have increasing levels of cases, and then limited medical products and supplies now being needed by a smaller number of states with high numbers of cases, will now be diverted from states where their situation is currently 'on fire'. The National economy may not really restart, and more shovelfuls of $$$ may be needed to tossed to the populace.

Right now there has finally been a scramble to try to get ventilators, etc., into production. Big names like GM are being thrown around, however, these fairly high tech products that they have not made before, have to be designed, engineering, put into some sort of production line, quality tested
.... in 3-5 weeks ??? ...Huh!!!

It's like someone saying...hey, just bought one of those neat new private jets. It's new stuff. They are able to design, and put these together in a couple of months....wanna go for a ride ???

The return to employment of Musicians, artists will be a slow climb. First their employer's...clubs, bars, restaurants,venues will need to open and find people to 'buy their products', to get some cash flow before 'filling the stage'. People in generally would have to financially recover past the basics, to the point where they have expendable cash.

And, ultimately the check comes due. All the federal and state expenses being 'fired' at the economy will need to be 'covered'. It may be that one of the only ways to cover that is to claw back parts of the 2017 tax cut that mostly benefited the large corporations, and the highest income folks. Is higher tax rates really that bad?
I don't know. But looking back to the late 50's and into the 70's, tax rates were as high as 90% at the top, sliding down lower over the years.

In those times (of higher taxes), there was a 'chicken in every pot', the government funded the Eisenhower (Interstate) highway system, cold war defense systems, middle class folks were able to buy homes, save, pay a reasonable amount for college educations, etc.
....and, as for musicians, there were lots of gigs...in the mid '60's I was in a trio..Blue Satin Tuxes...lots of work

Found this link that shows Federal tax rates all the way back to 1862 – Wow !!
https://files.taxfoundation.org/legacy/docs/fed_individual_rate_history_nominal.pdf

More on the positive side. For those that might not have seen this; how 'gig' Musicians can apply for unemployment, and also listing a large variety of Grants that are being made

Billboards Resource listing for Musicians and Gig Workers:
https://www.billboard.com/articles/...-resource-guide-music-professionals-help

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Nathanael_I #3035645 03/29/20 06:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Nathanael_I
That last bit is an most important bit - do you have a space that you can have as focus space, and not have work taking up your kitchen, or bedroom. We've always picked a place to live that had an extra room, converted a garage - something to make sure that exists. But that is not easy for everyone, yet makes working from home far more pleasant.

If you're self-employed and file a Schedule C, a dedicated place for business - and only business - is essential to claim a deduction for a home office. Generally it's based on a percentage of square footage for the house, with that percentage of your rent or mortgage being pre-tax deductible.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Nowarezman #3035666 03/29/20 10:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Nowarezman
Yeah, I've worked at home for about 25 years. I built out a little space in the garage to get the business stuff out of the regular living areas. It may only be 20 steps from my small office through the kitchen door and into the living room, but it can feel like "oh, man, great to be in here for a bit". A change of pace and environment can happen even in the confines of a small house.

After I retired from a government career (lastly with the FAA), I worked a few years as a very part time contractor to the FAA, on the same projects I was working on when I was with the G'u'mm'nt. Most of what I was doing for them (as a contractor) was reading and writing, and occasionally going to meetings or on field trips with the contractor who was building the stuff for the FAA. I tried sprawling out on the living room couch when doing things like reviewing test procedures and results, but I kept getting distracted. I excavated a little space in the studio control room (there was already a comfortable desk with a computer there) and that's where I "went to work." It really helped my concentration when I went to a little used part of the house to work, and I could walk away when I was done or wanted to take a break.

Today I loaf all the time, so it doesn't matter where I do it.


Quote
The big TV location is a crucial thing. If your arrangement is open where the dining, kitchen, and some sort of family/living/den room is all open, the TV dominates 3/4 of the entire living space in terms of noise and limitations to other activities.

My house is from the 1950s and has real rooms - not all with doors, but with enough walls so you can tell if you're in the living room, dining room, family room, or kitchen. I was looking for a new home in southern California for a while, and was turned off by the newer homes there (I didn't want another 60 year old house) that didn't have enough walls. I don't have a big TV, but the one I have is in the living room, opposite the couch, between the "listening" stereo speakers. Makes sense to me.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035669 03/29/20 10:44 PM
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Mike, I have one of those sorts of houses too. It's a tiny thing, though, under 1000 sq. feet. But the rooms are discrete rooms.

On the other hand, our back yard is a decent size.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035736 03/30/20 01:06 PM
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We have a 900 square foot cottage built in 1950. It has 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. One of the bedrooms is my office.

I don't worry about the TV, as we unhooked the cable and took down the antenna mast in 1990. I live in a fringe area so there is zero reception (I never even bought a digital converter). Actually I quit watching when I worked on cruise ships from 86 to 89.

After this is over, I'm going to patronize local businesses as much as I can.

For the small businesses that hire us regularly, I'll gig for free until their business picks back up. They've been good to me through the years, I'll have the time, so it seems the right thing to do. I've had a house gig in a restaurant, one day a week for 12 years running. They are like family to me.

Notes


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035744 03/30/20 02:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
I think that when the dust settles and the last ventilator is turned off, there will be far-reaching changes. We'll see.

I hope so.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3035760 03/30/20 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
I don't worry about the TV, as we unhooked the cable and took down the antenna mast in 1990.

Aha! So that's why you write intelligently.

Quote
For the small businesses that hire us regularly, I'll gig for free until their business picks back up. They've been good to me through the years, I'll have the time, so it seems the right thing to do. I've had a house gig in a restaurant, one day a week for 12 years running. They are like family to me.

I get where you're coming from. One of the magazines I write for had to cut way back, so I offered to write my column for free.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035887 03/31/20 02:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
<...snip...>
I get where you're coming from. One of the magazines I write for had to cut way back, so I offered to write my column for free.

It's wise to help the hand that feeds you when they need the help.

--- on the original "Now What?" question ---

Here is a thought. IF (and that's a big IF) the people who recover from COVID have been shown to have an immunity from re-infection AND not pass the disease on, perhaps they should be the first to go back to work.

Notes


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3035917 03/31/20 04:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
Here is a thought. IF (and that's a big IF) the people who recover from COVID have been shown to have an immunity from re-infection AND not pass the disease on, perhaps they should be the first to go back to work.
There would be major benefits to having a disease-free workforce. Presumably, some will be able to do what they did before, but it would also free up a lot of gig economy people to be the ones who go buy food and such for those who are still confined. It would really help with the whole social distancing thing.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3036579 04/03/20 06:14 PM
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https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bu...hange-us-after-the-COVID-19-15174489.php

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The coronavirus pandemic is already considered the story of this generation, and it will have lasting impact. Many of those changes involve connected technology. I’m going to focus on three areas — work, education and entertainment — that I think will be changed significantly by the pandemic.


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3036596 04/03/20 07:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
Here is a thought. IF (and that's a big IF) the people who recover from COVID have been shown to have an immunity from re-infection AND not pass the disease on, perhaps they should be the first to go back to work.

Notes

A lot of people, myself included, have never stopped going to work because it simply has to be done. Short of dying or becoming infected I'll continue to put on my big boy pants and do that.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Greg Mein #3036622 04/03/20 08:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Greg Mein
A lot of people, myself included, have never stopped going to work because it simply has to be done. Short of dying or becoming infected I'll continue to put on my big boy pants and do that.

The added Italics were mine, because Greg makes a crucial point: if you get infected, you don't want to infect other people. I visited China during the SARS epidemic, and as soon as I stepped off the plane, they checked me for an elevated temperature. I wasn't travelling to an area that was a hot spot, and I was coming from the US, where outbreaks were minimal. Still, they were checking everyone.

But this also brings up an important point about the importance of having tests available. People need to know whether or not they have Covid-19, so they don't expose other people. For example, truckers need to know they're not being exposed to people working at truck stops. If all the truckers stop going to work, "eating" will consist of fishing, hunting, and finding out what vegetation in your area is edible.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3036699 04/04/20 12:54 PM
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True. All the people who are still working and putting themselves at risk are today's heroes and heroines.

Please let me express a big "Thank you" and heartfelt wishes that you do not contact this plague.

They should all get high priority for COVID tests and protective gear. And it's not only truckers, it's farmers, food processing plants, sanitation workers, grocery store personnel, and anyone else in an essential business.

Perhaps being unemployed makes me one of the lucky ones.

Notes


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037077 04/06/20 04:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
What can we do now that ensures when this is all over, we're in a better, not worse, place?


Teach people that when they see people in Asian countries wearing a mask, it's not to protect THEM but to help prevent the spread to OTHERS.

Why the Surgeon General, CDC and WHO was advising against it until yesterday is...baffling, but as a person that received multiple comments for wearing a mask at the grocery store the last time I was there a few weeks ago, I've got to say...


WEAR A MASK

in public.


The amount of people that clearly don't understand based on what I see on Facebook and Twitter is astounding. It would have made such a big difference if the government had simply said "wear a mask, or fashion one out of a shirt/hankerchief/whatever if you go out around people" back in February.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Chip McDonald #3037094 04/06/20 04:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Chip McDonald
Why the Surgeon General, CDC and WHO was advising against it until yesterday is...baffling,.

The Surgeon General and CDC listened to the WHO regarding masks. Based on who is in charge at the WHO, that might not have been a good idea.

Last edited by Anderton; 04/06/20 06:30 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037157 04/06/20 09:25 PM
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I'm very skeptical of miracle cures. My wife died from cancer and many of the "out of the box" treatments appeared promising at first, but ultimately, some were useless and it was very likely that one of them was what killed her, not the cancer.

From a practical standpoint, people need to realize doctors are not in control of this, lawyers are. If people start dying after being administered a particular drug, there could be lawsuit after lawsuit that would drag out in the courts for years. I think it would be hard to lose such a lawsuit, if inadequate or sloppy testing was proven to have happened.

Doctors are put in a very difficult position, for a variety of reasons. Also doctors are not above wanting publicity.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037226 04/07/20 05:28 AM
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Update...apparently doctors are prescribing hydroxychloroquine, because it's legal for some illnesses and can be prescribed off-label based on a doctor's judgement. So the current positioning makes sense - the government says more testing is needed, so pharmaceutical companies are off the hook ("sorry you died of heart complications, but the government told you not to, so that's on you"). Meanwhile, spontaneous "under-the-radar tests" can help determine the efficacy, although the jury is out (and will be out for a while).

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037239 04/07/20 11:05 AM
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Don't get me wrong, I love doctors, but they don't all seem to understand the scientific method nor double-blind studies. I've seen too many times where a doctor will say something like, "my patients seem to respond to…" or other such anecdotal "evidence." I'm not saying they're wrong, lots of science came from investigating reports like that, but it's not enough to say that it's a scientifically proven fact.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/hydroxychloroquine-trump/609547/

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Two weeks ago, French doctors published a provocative observation in a microbiology journal. In the absence of a known treatment for COVID-19, the doctors had taken to experimentation with a potent drug known as hydroxychloroquine. For decades, the drug has been used to treat malaria—which is caused by a parasite, not a virus. In six patients with COVID-19, the doctors combined hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin (known to many as “Z-Pak,” an antibiotic that kills bacteria, not viruses) and reported that after six days of this regimen, all six people tested negative for the virus.

The report caught the eye of the celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, who has since appeared on Fox News to talk about hydroxychloroquine 21 times. As Oz put it to Sean Hannity, “This French doctor, [Didier] Raoult, a very famous infectious-disease specialist, had done some interesting work at a pilot study showing that he could get rid of the virus in six days in 100 percent of the patients he treated.” Raoult has made news in recent years as a pan-disciplinary provocateur; he has questioned climate change and Darwinian evolution. On January 21, at the height of the coronavirus outbreak in China, Raoult said in a YouTube video, “The fact that people have died of coronavirus in China, you know, I don’t feel very concerned.” Last week, Oz, who has been advising the president on the coronavirus, described Raoult to Hannity as “very impressive.” Oz told Hannity that he had informed the White House as much.

Anthony Fauci is not among the impressed. The day the study came out, Fauci, the leading infectious-disease expert advising the White House’s coronavirus task force, downplayed the findings as “anecdotal.” The report was not a randomized clinical trial—one in which many people are followed to see how their health fares, not simply whether a virus is detectable. And Oz’s “100 percent” interpretation involves conspicuous omissions. According to the study itself, three other patients who received hydroxychloroquine were too sick to be tested for the virus by day six (they were intubated in the ICU). Another had a bad reaction to the drug and stopped taking it. Another was not tested because, by day six, he had died.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037324 04/07/20 06:58 PM
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The problem is, double-blind studies on humans when lives could be lost are completely unethical. Virtually no doctor will want to say, either the folks in group A or B will be cured and the unlucky group will die.

Neither will they want to say, "we don't have enough ventilators and other supplies, I chose you to be treated and sentence you to death." It's not what they are trained to do.

I hope the governments of the world learn a lesson to put lives in front of personal profit and politics, but history tells me that's not likely.

I figure, the world will recover, some positive changes will be made, and in time, those with the most profits to be made will slowly erode them.

It's not the first plague, nor will it be the last.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3037463 04/08/20 12:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
The problem is, double-blind studies on humans when lives could be lost are completely unethical. Virtually no doctor will want to say, either the folks in group A or B will be cured and the unlucky group will die.

Neither will they want to say, "we don't have enough ventilators and other supplies, I chose you to be treated and sentence you to death." It's not what they are trained to do.
My wife works for the top cancer treatment center in the country. They do clinical trials of new cancer drugs all the time. The patients are offered to be part of the appropriate trials, and they know they might get a placebo. It's the only way they can be sure the stuff works vs. the placebo effect.

Besides, there's another flaw in your statement. Giving a patient a drug when you don't know if it will help might be letting them die as well. In fact, some of these drugs might have terrible side effects, including death. IOW, if the disease is deadly and the drug doesn't work, people from both groups could have the same chance of dying, or those taking the drug might have a higher one.

If the patients (or their families) are told of the risks of participating in the study and are allowed to make the decision whether to be a part of it or not, that's completely ethical. It's only unethical when they are not informed, don't have a choice, are experimented on without their consent.

Of course all doctors want to save lives. They don't want to do any harm (the Hippocratic Oath), but unfortunately this damned thing has forced some of them to make incredibly tough decisions.


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037477 04/08/20 01:21 PM
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Thanks for the enlightenment Joe


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3037490 04/08/20 02:15 PM
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Some random thoughts on what might be different on other side, provoked a few comments in the financial press.

Capital will be in short supply and taxes higher for many years to get deficits back under control.

So the death of tech start ups that have always lost money and rely on constant capital injections to survive, like Uber. At the end of the day the it is just an app so easily replicated and replaced by smaller ride share co ops or similar with the app developer getting paid per download or as a subscription service.

Read somewhere that after past pandemics the pendalum swings to placing a higher value on labour compared to capital. So wage compression with the top end getting a lower multiple of what the average worker gets. Already happening here with a raft of newly appointed bank CEO's getting less than their predecessors.

Reading recently about Rimac, a Croation start up producing EV tech for exotic hyper cars and now Porsche and Hyundai. The founder said that he gets three times the average pay of his employees while in the US it is 287 times the pay of the average worker in the company they run.

A lot more folk working from home more often. Which requires employers to have greater trust in their workforce. And you don't have trust without respect.

Here banks are being forced to give those affected by the pandemic mortgage payment holidays, lower interest rates, foreclosure is banned and landords cannot evict tenants. Banks have been told to suspend dividend payments. Insurers have voluntarily waived pandemic exclusions. So capital is being forced to bend to social needs. Part of this readjustment may be become the norm on the other side.

Low interest rates for a long time to come.

The extent of this type of change will vary be country and be influenced by the collective mores. Obviously I am influenced by my local environment but to a greater or lesser extent some or all will occur globally.


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Hoping everyone stays safe and well and sees this through to the other side
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
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Concerning the debate about Chloroquine, I just saw an interview yesterday with a doctor who is another infectious disease specialist who says the idea that you cannot use drugs that have not gone though human trials is basically bogus. He rattled off several drugs that never went through these sorts of trials. His opinion is Chloroquine is effective. Many other doctors have said the same thing and he thinks Faucci is being too conservative about this. And, it's only being given to the worst patients, the ones who are on ventilators already and declining. It can't be used on everybody yet anyway because that drug has been used for years for Lupus and other serious illnesses not just malaria. We cannot take that drug away from other patients who've already been using it for these other things. And that's another reason to not worry too much about side effects and such, this is not a new drug it's very well known. Like any other drug, your doctor will decide if it's appropriate for you or not.

Also the reason individual doctors have so much authority about stuff like this is because they're on the front lines. Years ago, I had read a fairly detailed article about a situation I had at the time and that article referenced a study about it that worried me. I called my doctor about it and he took down the exact information and called me back a week later to say he researched that study and didn't like their methodology, he said it was incomplete and a little sloppy. That was my first real life experience you can't believe everything you read concerning medicine. It's like my doctor at the VA two years ago didn't like the results a local clinic had produced that had been contracted by the VA. His comment was similar, their report was incomplete and sloppy in his opinion so he had me come into the VA's West LA facility to have it done again and the results were much better.

The medical field is very complex like so many things in our modern world, you can't just make blanket statements like the drug companies only care about profits or you only believe one doctor because he happens to be up there in news conferences next to the President. Faucci has a great reputation but even at his high level there are many different opinions from other esteemed doctors at his same level. We all just have to read and digest these things for ourselves, listen to our personal doctors, get second opinions and make our own decisions.

Bob


Hammond SK1, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037554 04/08/20 05:29 PM
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I can't help but notice that the discussion here is more informed and balanced, exhibits more sensitivity, and considers more points of view that anything I'm seeing in the media. No wonder I like to hang out here.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037567 04/08/20 06:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
I can't help but notice that the discussion here is more informed and balanced, exhibits more sensitivity, and considers more points of view that anything I'm seeing in the media. No wonder I like to hang out here.

Agreed. I attempted to participate in another forum discussing this topic and it keeps going off the rails while the moderators there take a more or less "hands off" approach. I've left that thread to suffer and die on it's own.

Since we are now discussing the possibilities of the future of the world and our country, I will bring up something that may seem off topic but I feel is relevant.

There is a HUGE change coming in terms of how labor is performed. It's been right in front of us for some time but CV_19 may accelerate the changes for one significant reason. Machinery does not get sick, that is how this stays on topic.

Robots are coming, lots of robots. China is way ahead of us there, despite what would be considered relatively low labor costs the Chinese are replacing workers with robots where and when possible.
It will happen here, just a matter of time. Nvidia has robots in R&D that are learning how to do things by watching humans do them, AI enabled. No lengthy coding needed to mandate procedures. Eventually, robots will "train" other robots in the same fashion.
I worked a temp job as a printer a few years ago and they already had a robotic system in place for producing finished boxes for their products. The cardboard was already die cut, the robot place the cardboard, glued all labels on in one operation and folded the box as need in the next. I ran that robot a couple of times, it could produce lots of boxes, did not get a paycheck or call out sick.

The other big piece of the puzzle? 3d printing. Recent developments have increased production speeds.

Manufacturing may move back to the USA to save on shipping but they will eventually have robots running 3d printers instead of humans.
It will engender HUGE changes in life around the world. How we adjust a "consumer based" economy when consumers have reduced or non-existent income paths is going to be an interesting challenge.

So I am glad that I am old!!! I'd hate to be in the "workforce" 10 years from now. Cheers, Kuru


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037570 04/08/20 06:16 PM
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I can't find the article right now, so I'll do my best off the top of my head to recall and explain to the best of my ability what I read. It started by stating that Ventilators are the wrong treatment for Covid-19 and may be partially to blame for some of the lung damage because they put pressure on the lungs where what is needed is pure oxygen at low pressure, and ultimately the underlying problem isn't even a lung issue. It also explains why Chloroquine may be effective.

The article stated that the virus attacks the Hemoglobin. There is an Iron Ion attached to the Hemoglobin that allows it to pick up an Oxygen molecule when it passes through your lungs. The virus attaches to the Hemoglobin and it loses that Iron Ion so that it can no longer pick up Oxygen and your oxygen saturation drops. This causes all kinds of problems, along with the now free Ions in the blood stream, and effects your vital organs. Your body has to make new hemoglobin and remove the bad stuff.

Malaria is not a virus, but it feeds on hemoglobin. The theory is that in the same way chloroquine protects the hemoglobin from malaria, it also prevents the virus from attaching.

Of course I haven't seen this widely reported over verified by anybody, so take it for what it is worth - one person's educated opinion.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037587 04/08/20 07:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
I can't help but notice that the discussion here is more informed and balanced, exhibits more sensitivity, and considers more points of view that anything I'm seeing in the media. No wonder I like to hang out here.
The media has no interest in balance, they always have an agenda. Case in point, one media source recently suggested (and that was their headline) that the drug was promoted by a certain person very high in the government (guess who) because they had a financial interest in the drug. Buried in the story was the fact that the holdings are somewhere between $100 and $1500. That's right...at the very most a measly $1500.

Since the virus has arrived my trust in the media is eroded even further (something I never thought possible) and in addition I no longer use Facebook. I used to use it to promote my bands but since we're not gigging there's no point going on there only to see people post misleading or outright false media stories all day long.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037689 04/09/20 01:30 AM
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I nuked facebook when I found out that they were using each person's likes/dislikes, robotic reading of each person's posts for key words, tallying up the data from all the games and quizzes each person plays and deciding their political bias. If they were strong liberal or conservative they were left alone but if they seemed to be sitting on the fence they put a barrage of fraudulent "news" in their inbox in order to rig a US Presidential election. I don't call it "Fake News" with the intention is clearly fraud. Fake seems to minimize the seriousness of the crime.

Now I don't care if they were rigging it for the candidate I liked or the candidate I disliked, using fraud to manipulate a US election is against my principles. I decided that if I continued to let them profit off my data it would make me an accessory to the crime. These are not my values and it's against my personal ethics. As a patriot I find it repulsive.

So I researched how to delete my data before nuking my account, and did so.

Now I know I'm missing promotional opportunities for my duo http://www.s-cats.com but I have to live with my conscience.

As far as news is concerned, almost all news is biased. Sadly during the Reagan administration they nuked the Fairness Doctrine that required news programs to air both sides of an argument and to clearly label anything editorial as editorial and not news. This led to the propagandization of the 4th estate.

Knowing news is biased, I use this chart from Politifact, a Pulitizer Prize winning fact checking organization. They show no political bias. Anything to the left of The Atlantic or the right of The Hill in the chart I consider propaganda and not news. For example Fox gets an 8% pure truth rating and 60% from Mostly False to Pants On Fire. MSNBC is slightly better with 9% pure truth and 46% from Mostly False to Pants On Fire.

Even between The Atlantic and The Hill I don't expect 100% truth, but it's the best I can do. I compare different sources and take everything with the proverbial grain of salt.

[Linked Image from nortonmusic.com]

A person who ignores the news is uninformed, and a person who watches and/or reads the news is misinformed. (Paraphrased from a Mark Twain quote.)

To get back on topic, what next?

I do hope live music which was already in trouble before the plague doesn't get any worse. It's how I make my living.

Insights and incites by Notes

Last edited by Notes_Norton; 04/09/20 01:31 AM.

Bob "Notes" Norton
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The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037699 04/09/20 01:59 AM
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I wanted to follow up on my previous post. Some medical professionals are discounting some of what I had said about the hemoglobin. May be fake news - felt it my responsibility to report that. HOWEVER there is still increasing medical professionals questioning the use of ventilators and acknowledging the damage they do. Also, increasing data on Hydrochloroquine coupled with some antibiotics and zinc. I'll leave it at that. Research research research. You can find a variety of opinions that are in opposition but all from reputable medical professionals. Anyone with an agenda can hand select whichever ones they want.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037702 04/09/20 02:06 AM
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Also be careful of those memes that claim which news sources are trustworthy. I have a FB friend that uses that one all the time but is very obviously on one side of the spectrum politically. It doesn't tell the whole story in account. It doesn't separate hard news shows from editorial shows. It doesn't differentiate fact checking on political pieces from others. Also it is based on the bias of the person who created it. Don't let ANYBODY (including ME) tell you who to trust. Do your due diligence checking multiple sources and make up your own mind using common sense and intellect. I trust you to come to the right conclusion given all the information (even if we disagree - we have different philosophies and that's a GOOD thing).


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
2 members like this: Greg Mein, pinkfloydcramer
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037708 04/09/20 02:30 AM
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Norton...that chart is a complete joke. It has NYT, CNN, MSNBC, and WashPo right in the middle.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
J. Dan #3037711 04/09/20 02:36 AM
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Originally Posted by J. Dead
Also be careful of those memes that claim which news sources are trustworthy. I have a FB friend that uses that one all the time but is very obviously on one side of the spectrum politically. It doesn't tell the whole story in account. It doesn't separate hard news shows from editorial shows. It doesn't differentiate fact checking on political pieces from others. Also it is based on the bias of the person who created it. Don't let ANYBODY (including ME) tell you who to trust. Do your due diligence checking multiple sources and make up your own mind using common sense and intellect. I trust you to come to the right conclusion given all the information (even if we disagree - we have different philosophies and that's a GOOD thing).

Another great post. If I'm ever in St. Louis again, I'm looking you up...

Especially if you're gigging smile

I don't trust any media, and not necessarily because they have obvious agendas. People hunger for binary results - this one "good," this one "bad." Matters are far more nuanced than that, and the law of unintended consequences reigns supreme. Newscasts seldom plumb those kinds of depths.

The choice is rarely between which option is the best of all possible worlds. It's like television, where the shows that survive are LOP - "least objectionable programming" (they really call it that, I didn't make it up). There are often no good answers, only less objectionable ones. The only way we can be sure we arrive at the right answers is to be able to predict the future...and that ain't happening.

As a consultant, companies often want answers. Instead, I usually have to present them with choices: If A, then X. If B, then Y. If C, then Z. That's often not what they want to hear, but the reality is they'll have to choose among X, Y, and Z, because those are the options.

One thing I learned about cancer with my dead wife is that some alternative therapies DO work - for some people, but not for others .There's no "one size fits all" that I've been able to identify. It wouldn't surprise me if corona virus is the same way. With cancer, it becomes a race - can you find the answer faster than the cancer can kill you? We might be in the same situation with the virus.

Or maybe not.

Or maybe so.

And we may be in the same situation about how soon we can put this behind us...

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
PrairieGuy #3037714 04/09/20 02:38 AM
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Originally Posted by PrairieGuy
Norton...that chart is a complete joke. It has NYT, CNN, MSNBC, and WashPo right in the middle.


Part of my point, they are politically biased, but pretty accurate on non-political. Then look at somebody like NPR who does a LOT of non-political stories so they score high. If you look at non-political hard news on CNN and NPR they are very accurate. But that doesn't tell the whole story. Same with Fox. People like Hannity and Tucker Carlson are for sure biased and would make the channel seem hard right, but the hard news segments are pretty fair, just like the hard news segments on other outlets. People have lost their ability to differentiate hard news from editorial or news analysis.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
J. Dan #3037718 04/09/20 02:40 AM
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Originally Posted by J. Dead
People have lost their ability to differentiate hard news from editorial or news analysis.

Please stop posting faster than I can give you props smile

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037719 04/09/20 02:51 AM
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I will mention that I also recently left Fakebook.
There are reasons it is convenient and reasons why it is the worst possible human sewer.
I'd unfollowed just about everybody who posted. You do have to google how to delete Fakebook, they would prefer you simply deactivate it.
Don't like 'em and that's that.

To get any sort of larger picture, we must also consider news sources from other countries, as many as possible. The perspective can be useful.
It should never be forgotten that news in the United States is entirely financed by advertising and the companies who advertise do have agendas.

Choose your poison but don't drink the Kool-Aid.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037722 04/09/20 02:57 AM
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Not trying to blow smoke up your ass, but the compliments have me a little giddy given that I have your books and have used your circuits many times over the years, often with my own modifications given that I'm an electrical engineer. But they don't focus a lot on application specific analog electronics that apply to music. I took an advanced analog electronics class that, even though it was only offered every other semester, only had 5 of us in the class. I'm glad we covered OTA's at least, but the guy spent half the damn semester on Tunnel Diodes. In my whole life since I've never come across a tunnel diode.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
KuruPrionz #3037746 04/09/20 08:16 AM
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Originally Posted by KuruPrionz
The other big piece of the puzzle? 3d printing. Recent developments have increased production speeds.
3D printers have been repurposed here to make headbands for PPE. Their ability for rapid switch in products manufactured is aleady making a difference.


MainStage 3 | Axiom 61 2nd Gen | Pianoteq | B5 | XK3c | EV ZLX 12P
Hoping everyone stays safe and well and sees this through to the other side
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
PrairieGuy #3037783 04/09/20 02:02 PM
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Originally Posted by PrairieGuy
Norton...that chart is a complete joke. It has NYT, CNN, MSNBC, and WashPo right in the middle.

I wouldn't go that far but I agree that comparing the 4 above media outlets to NPR, Reuters, and Associated Press is innacurate at best


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037792 04/09/20 02:22 PM
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I never said the middle spots were accurate. But the ones to the left and right of them are much worse, and not even believable.

The chart was made with extensive fact checking of the pundits on those outlets. The ones in the middle told the least amount of lies.

Basically, be skeptical of all, but if you are outside the middle groups, just don't believe it at all.

Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
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Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037810 04/09/20 03:27 PM
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That Politifact would put out a chart like that reflects poorly on Politifact, IMO. Serving up pre-digested bias and and trying to tell people what to believe when theoretically at least, they should be capable of observing for themselves and making up their own minds. Which media outlets are most often successfully sued for false stories, slander etc.? Which ones most often have to retract their stories, and how transparent are they at doing that? Which ones, over a period of time, are consistently wrong in their predictions? Which ones consistently separate, "quarantine", if you will, their editorializing and commentary from their hard news reporting? It's all so muddled nowadays.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Markay #3037813 04/09/20 03:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Markay
Originally Posted by KuruPrionz
The other big piece of the puzzle? 3d printing. Recent developments have increased production speeds.
3D printers have been repurposed here to make headbands for PPE. Their ability for rapid switch in products manufactured is aleady making a difference.


Yes, very versatile. Tooling to commit to manufacturing is not required. Print a couple of the proposed item, test those and fix or proceed.
In 2014 I worked for a company that makes interiors for aircraft. I ran a Stratasys 3d printer, it was used to make prototypes for parts. The company was paying about $2k per prototype and waiting 6 weeks to get a couple for testing. They bought the printer and started making them in house. It was slow, often we would set it up, hit the go button at the end of the day and go home since a part could take several hours to print. Still, a 3 day turnaround instead of 6 weeks. Eventually they got FAA approval to use some of the parts we printed. I was gone shortly thereafter but I'd guess it's more than paid for itself a while back.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3037821 04/09/20 04:01 PM
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Originally Posted by J. Dead
People have lost their ability to differentiate hard news from editorial or news analysis.

Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
Sadly during the Reagan administration they nuked the Fairness Doctrine that required news programs to air both sides of an argument and to clearly label anything editorial as editorial and not news. This led to the propagandization of the 4th estate.

It's hard to tell when some of these outlets are deliberately hiding the difference from us. frown


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037834 04/09/20 04:40 PM
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I keep asking myself why (I would say most) media are soooo vested in a particular mindset, candidate, etc. What's in it for them?

I think I have the answer...they're not appealing to someone's quest for knowledge, but to someone who wants to belong to a tribe. People want to be on the winning side, so once they decide which side they're on, they'll do anything to justify being on that side - it's wrapped up in their own identity.

With sports teams, when the team is winning people say "we're winning." When the team is losing, people say "they're losing." Ultimately, it has to do with people's insecurities and fear of being "wrong."

But again, it's not that easy to distill situations to "this is definitely good" and "this is definitely bad." There are just too many shades of gray for most people to accommodate. It's like if everyone had different criteria for deciding the winning team. Person A says their baseball team won because it has the most hits. Person B said their team won because they had the least number of strikeouts. Person C said their team won because it had the fewest errors.

To relate this to the OP, the unfortunate aspect of this societal fracturing is that it makes it hard to learn from one's mistakes. It's getting to the point where it seems to me that people are interested in finding fault for fault's sake to reinforce their "team," not in order to avoid repeating the same mistakes in the future. An easy example is models. Models are "if-then" constructs, not predictions from psychics. When the "if" changes, the "when" changes. When a model doesn't give accurate results, the correct conclusion is NOT "the people doing the models are idiots." The correct conclusion is models aren't designed to predict the future, but construct "what if" scenarios. Currently, a lot of people don't seem to understand that. Maybe they will when this is all over.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3037935 04/09/20 11:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
I nuked facebook when I found out that they were using each person's likes/dislikes, robotic reading of each person's posts for key words, tallying up the data from all the games and quizzes each person plays and deciding their political bias.

[Linked Image from nortonmusic.com]

I guess I've done alright then. I look through the lens of what seems accurate, scientific, logical, truthful, all that, often going straight to the source. In the case of the coronavirus, reading the scientific articles and models rather than having journalists interpret them for me. And...well, according to your chart, I must have done well. I have a digital subscription to Washington Post, and on Facebook, I have BBC and Reuters regularly showing up in my Facebook feed, largely because I value those publications, but also because that's what their algorithms seem to suggest for me. Also the Guardian sometimes. They seem reasonably accurate and employ investigative journalism, which I value, so I've read these for a while.

I think most people want to be in their comfort zone. They want affirmation, not information.

That does not interest me.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037948 04/10/20 01:05 AM
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Bill Gates chimes in on the importance of testing and a direction to focus. His thoughts seem relavant to our discussion.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/bill-gates-coronavirus-testing-200344998.html


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037954 04/10/20 01:36 AM
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Now if only he could find a way to make Windows less susceptible to viruses. laugh


Dan

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
J. Dan #3037958 04/10/20 01:50 AM
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Originally Posted by J. Dead
Now if only he could find a way to make Windows less susceptible to viruses. laugh

As always, viruses mutate!

I've had great good fortune with Macs so far - knock on wood.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
KuruPrionz #3037982 04/10/20 04:11 AM
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Originally Posted by KuruPrionz
Originally Posted by J. Dead
Now if only he could find a way to make Windows less susceptible to viruses. laugh

As always, viruses mutate!

I've had great good fortune with Macs so far - knock on wood.

Be careful not to get too complacent. Macs remain more secure than Windows for now, but the number of attacks on Macs continues to increase. And if you have an iPhone, it's probably best to disable Find My iPhone.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037987 04/10/20 04:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
And if you have an iPhone, it's probably best to disable Find My iPhone.

My iPhome and iPad are company issues and "find my phone" app is REQUIRED. They use mobile device manager to manage our devices and we can't connect to the company network without certain apps and security settings in place.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037996 04/10/20 05:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Originally Posted by KuruPrionz
Originally Posted by J. Dead
Now if only he could find a way to make Windows less susceptible to viruses. laugh

As always, viruses mutate!

I've had great good fortune with Macs so far - knock on wood.

Be careful not to get too complacent. Macs remain more secure than Windows for now, but the number of attacks on Macs continues to increase. And if you have an iPhone, it's probably best to disable Find My iPhone.


I have Avast Security, free and not the very best but it has caught a few attempts. Isolates the intrusion in a "jail" folder so you can toss it. I've considered upgrading, I agree that there are certainly viruses for Macs.

My phone is a $30 Android phone with Tracfone on it. I pay less than $100 annually, just a basic communcation tool to me. I turned off everything I could, have never had the internet working, connected to WI-FI, bought anything with a card, etc.
They can hack it, they'll get my contact list and 3 or 4 photos. Some boring, mundane text conversations. If I lose it replacement is easy and cheap.

Then I just remove my minutes and data from the phone via the website and use it when I get another $30 phone.
Your advice makes sense, even if my reality might not. Cheers, Kuru


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3038030 04/10/20 10:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
if you have an iPhone, it's probably best to disable Find My iPhone.
Why do you say that, Craig?


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3038103 04/10/20 03:59 PM
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How Privacy-Friendly Contact Tracing Can Help Stop the Spread of Covid-19.

This would be awesome.

Quote
Nicky Case, working with security & privacy researcher Carmela Troncoso and epidemiologist Marcel Salathé, came up with this fantastic explanation of how we can use apps to automatically do contact tracing for Covid-19 infections while protecting people’s privacy. The second panel succinctly explains why contact tracing (in conjunction with quick, ubiquitous testing) can have such a huge benefit in a case like this:

A problem with COVID-19: You’re contagious ~2 days before you know you’re infected. But it takes ~3 days to become contagious, so if we quarantine folks exposed to you the day you know you were infected… We stop the spread, by staying one step ahead!


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3038109 04/10/20 04:05 PM
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A little too "big brother" for my liking. Also, how do they know if you're already immune or not? If somebody rides the bus and ends up positive, are you going to quarantine everybody that was on that bus for 2 weeks whether they got it or not? Personally, I think one of the most positive things coming is the test to identify if you have the antibodies or not, for 3 reasons:
1) You can get the "all clear" to go about your business
2) You can donate plasma to help others recover
3) If you don't, you can take greater precautions to avoid it


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Joe Muscara #3038138 04/10/20 06:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe Muscara
Originally Posted by Anderton
if you have an iPhone, it's probably best to disable Find My iPhone.
Why do you say that, Craig?

It's mostly about avoiding randomware, not viruses, as mentioned in this article as well as this older article. However, Find My iPhone lets you lock or erase your phone, so the security from that probably outweighs the vulnerability to ransomware.

However there are several ways to make your phone more secure, even if Find My iPhone is enabled, Both articles mention tips along those lines. But there have also been a lot of updates to iOS since 2017, when the most recent of those articles was written. If an Apple fans know whether these issues were addressed in subsequent updates, it would be good to know. I checked Apple's web site, but couldn't find any reference to fixes involving iCloud/iPhone security.

At one point, the iPhone had way more vulnerabilities than Android. But Apple pretty much fixed them all with iOS 7, while Androids continue to be exploited. iPhone is definitely more secure than Android, but of course, nothing's perfeckt.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3038165 04/10/20 07:43 PM
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Thanks, Craig! I don't know if that's still an issue. I'll report back if I find anything.

As far as my post about the contact tracing, Apple and Google are doing it. To your point, Dan, this isn't making anyone quarantine. It simply tells you that you've been in contact with someone who was diagnosed. If you're immune and don't care, don't opt-in. Also, this doesn't eliminate the antibody testing we need, the need for a vaccine, nor more testing to find who has it. It's another tool, and the concept seems to have worked well in other countries (yes, they apparently forced their citizens to do this, which isn't the case here).


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3038314 04/11/20 06:31 PM
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To get back to Craig's original point of this thread. You nailed it Craig when you talked about your clients wanting solid answers and but you can give them are choices based on certain parameters. My background way back in a previous life was an intel analyst. In intel when dealing with a determined and intelligent adversary you never have certainty either. You compile things from multiple sources, some with a high degree of reliability and some not. I used to have access to something called the Intelligence Reference Library with publication that looked exactly like Time, Newsweek except they had names like DIA Journal or whatever and had Top Secret stamped across the top. Everything was edcucated guesswork and I never knew the whole story because of compartmentalization. It's similar to what's going on now. Here's what I see right now.

There are some new stories that are very interesting that show that this thing may not be as bad as first thought. By not as bad I do not mean good, it's nothing to worry about or anything like that. It's still serious and we all still have be careful. One of those stories is about poop testing and another is about wastewater testing. In both cases the virus can be easily identified and measured. The indications are there was and still are many, many more cases then we ever knew about by a factor as high as 200-300%. This radically lowers the overall fatality rate. Now, just last night I read a story out of Chicago about the antibody test done in the poorer urban areas, mostly African American and Latino two groups who seem to be getting hit harder by this. The antibody test is showing a 30-50% positive result, meaning just like the other two tests this virus has already been there long before we even knew it was there. To me as a person who used to have to come up with probabilities of this or that result this looks very promising. I know when I brought up this point a month ago about the fatality rate being much lower than the current numbers show some said well, there's a good chance that early deaths were not identified correctly as being from COVID 19. I disagree because ER's and hospitals don't usually miss stuff like that. It's well known now that the symptoms are not the same as the flu, initially similar but there are definite differences. Those deaths would have been identified as being from a new virus and possibly COVID 19 once it was known about. Further reading on that subject says that a flu test would have routinely been done. That means the concept that if the death rate is a known number but keep increasing the number of cases the overall death rate goes down is correct. Now I'm seeing some medical opinions saying that the overall rate will wind up being the same as the flu, about .1%.

Next is testing. The great thing about this country is yes, we may have gotten off to a slower start than hindsight says we should have but once we get rolling things happen very fast. Abbot Labs already had 18,000 of those 15 minute kits distributed and all they needed was a fairly simple modification to test for COVID 19. Now they will have another 50,000 out pretty soon. The antibody test is the same, availability is rapidly increasing. Faucci said we have done testing on about 1 in 300 already, he would like it to get to 1 in 100. It looks like we should achieve that fairly soon.

IF all of these indications showing the overall number of cases is way larger than we thought, the antibody testing is showing the same thing and by extension there is considerable "herd immunity" we probably can start opening the country up fairly soon like mid May. No, not next week but new info is coming in literally by the hour so if the trends stay positive we can do that. Unfortunately, just from a psychological point of view if nothing else, the thing we're most interested in as musicians, gigging, will lag considerably behind.

Just my somewhat hopeful opinion.

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3038568 04/13/20 04:38 PM
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dB

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3038572 04/13/20 04:54 PM
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Beautiful, Sir Dave.
It sounds like something my Lummi brother would say, he is an Elder and wise in the ways of the air, earth, water and sky. It is a blessing to know him.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3038795 04/14/20 08:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Personal perspective: There was a run of years where I made a lot of money. I didn't really get to enjoy it, because almost all of it went to taking care of a dying, estranged wife who was sick for over a decade, and paying the mortgage on a house that's now in foreclosure. I'm living in an inexpensive investment condo that my daughter owns. When Gibson fired me along with a zillion other people, my severance was 3 weeks. I drive a 20-year-old used car. My HVAC is over 20 years old, and will need to be replaced soon.

I've never been happier in my entire life.

When my estranged wife died, and I could no longer pay the mortgage on what was supposed to be a dream house and investment for the future, I realized just how little money I actually needed to live. I realized that the universal currency isn't money, it's time - whether you're rich or poor, an hour lasts exactly 60 minutes. It's up to you to decide how to spend those 60 minutes. Some people are much better at spending time than others, and the best time-spenders aren't necessarily the richest folks. That's because a lot of rich people think that money is worth more than time. It isn't..

I never realized that you went through such a rough time. I made crazy money the last 4 years at Chrysler, before I retired 10 years ago ,and many deaths in the family since then, but I hardly had time to travel when I was working. Money will have little to do with our futures, because it will be harder to travel, shop etc. I'm afraid that this level of control won't go away very soon ....if ever.

Dan

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
techristian #3038829 04/15/20 04:47 AM
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Originally Posted by techristian
Originally Posted by Anderton
Personal perspective: There was a run of years where I made a lot of money. I didn't really get to enjoy it, because almost all of it went to taking care of a dying, estranged wife who was sick for over a decade, and paying the mortgage on a house that's now in foreclosure. I'm living in an inexpensive investment condo that my daughter owns. When Gibson fired me along with a zillion other people, my severance was 3 weeks. I drive a 20-year-old used car. My HVAC is over 20 years old, and will need to be replaced soon.

I've never been happier in my entire life.

When my estranged wife died, and I could no longer pay the mortgage on what was supposed to be a dream house and investment for the future, I realized just how little money I actually needed to live. I realized that the universal currency isn't money, it's time - whether you're rich or poor, an hour lasts exactly 60 minutes. It's up to you to decide how to spend those 60 minutes. Some people are much better at spending time than others, and the best time-spenders aren't necessarily the richest folks. That's because a lot of rich people think that money is worth more than time. It isn't..

I never realized that you went through such a rough time. I made crazy money the last 4 years at Chrysler, before I retired 10 years ago ,and many deaths in the family since then, but I hardly had time to travel when I was working. Money will have little to do with our futures, because it will be harder to travel, shop etc. I'm afraid that this level of control won't go away very soon ....if ever.

Dan

Dang, I had no idea either. All I can say is you continue to be an inspiration to me, Mr. Anderton.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3038938 04/15/20 08:29 PM
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Nor I.

I'm glad you're happy now.

Life is short, and happiness is the most precious asset.

Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3038942 04/15/20 08:34 PM
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Ever since I've known Craig, one of the things I've admired about him is his perspective on what's important and his general philosophy toward life, creativity, work, and various other things.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3038965 04/15/20 10:48 PM
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Just got back from a special event that could only happen under our present circumstances.

As most of us probably have, I've been blessed to have a "family" of special people in my life.
One of those people - Leroy aka The Turtle Man - turned 90 today. He has been coming to our shows with his wife Anne for a few years.
If we play Bad Bad Leroy Brown he will get up and dance.

Today a significant group of my family met in a nearby parking lot and then had a drive-by birthday celebration in Leroy's front yard. We all rolled down our right side auto windows, wished Leroy Happy Birthday and had a brief conversation with him, then moved on for the next vehicle to take their turn.

Leroy was just glowing with happiness to have all his family come by and visit!!!

It makes it easier to continue on my path, mask and gloves are a minor annoyance that could save my life or the lives of others. It's worth it for my family! Cheers, Kuru


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3039050 04/16/20 03:05 PM
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Leilani and I donned our mask and gloves, toted small bottles of rubbing alcohol, and went grocery shopping yesterday. Hopefully buying at least 2 weeks worth of perishables.

The experience wasn't bad. The 2 stores we visited weren't too crowded, people mostly respected each other's space, and everybody seemed friendly.

Today it looks like rain. It's been dry for a couple of months, the rainy season might be coming a month early, but then it never did strictly adhere to the schedule.

Notes


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3039472 04/18/20 08:08 PM
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I went to the post office yesterday. Almost everyone was wearing masks but were lined up very close to each other. Thankfully, mine was a drop-off, so I was not there more than about 20 seconds. I still swabbed off everything and applied hand sanitizer a couple of times anyway.

Grocery stores around here have been doing pretty well with the "social distancing" protocols and all else.

Stay safe, everyone.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
KenElevenShadows #3039476 04/18/20 08:43 PM
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Originally Posted by KenElevenShadows
I went to the post office yesterday. Almost everyone was wearing masks but were lined up very close to each other. Thankfully, mine was a drop-off, so I was not there more than about 20 seconds. I still swabbed off everything and applied hand sanitizer a couple of times anyway.

Grocery stores around here have been doing pretty well with the "social distancing" protocols and all else.

Stay safe, everyone.

I was in our post office yesterday too. I taped a label on a package and dropped it off. They have markers on the floor and a notice of maximum capacity allowed inside the post office at the front entrance.
Everybody was observing social distancing and there were flexible clear plastic barriers inbetween the workers and the customers. Most were masked and gloved.

I didn't stay long either but it wasn't too frightening. Now is no time to let down my guard!


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3039559 04/19/20 09:44 AM
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Local grocery store is real strict about you HAVE to wear a mask, only one shopper per family, stickers in the floor telling you where to stand for proper distancing, etc.....then half their employees are wearing their masks down not even covering their noses, or just down around their neck, or pulling the, down to talk. I feel like ok if you're going to make me do all this, don't make it all for nothing by being stupid. I think for the most part measures taken should represent the local conditions and situation, so I think in some cases some of the more extreme measures are overkill, while not enough is done in other places. But if you're going to put rules in place, at least follow them. Otherwise what's the point?


Dan

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3039907 04/21/20 11:12 AM
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Since trials were previously discussed in this thread, I'll bring this up here.

clonk

Quote
Fuentes enrolled in the Houston arm of a global trial of remdesivir, an antiviral drug that may be the best therapeutic hope in the fight against COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus currently spreading in Houston and around the world. While research involving hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial drug touted by President Donald Trump, and transfusions of blood plasma taken from people who’ve recovered from COVID-19 have attracted more attention, remdesivir is the would-be therapy farthest along in the testing process.

Early research results have been promising. In a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine 10 days ago, nearly 70 percent of 53 patients given remdesivir through what’s known as “compassionate use” required reduced oxygen support and 17 of the 30 on ventilators were able to come off them. Then, last Friday, the online health news organization STAT reported that a University of Chicago video shows a doctor saying the institution’s hospital has discharged most of the 125 participants in an ongoing remdesivir clinical trial, almost all of whom had severe disease.

But researchers were quick to note those research efforts didn’t include a group of patients who received a placebo instead of the drug, important for comparison purposes. Such studies, the gold standard of drug testing, are necessary to provide evidence of a therapy’s effectiveness and win Food and Drug Administration approval.

That’s the advantage of the trial in which Fuentes is participating, the most rigorous of a number being conducted. Patients sick enough to require hospitalization are randomly assigned to receive either remdesivir or a placebo, both delivered by infusion for up to 10 days, at 40 academic hospitals around the nation and globe. Baylor College of Medicine is leading the effort in Houston, the National Institutes of Health the overall project.

Early results from the trial are expected by the end of the month. Investigators will compare outcomes in both those who received remdesivir and those who received a placebo to determine whether the drug actually produced more of a clinical benefit. Outcomes are scored on a eight-point scale ranging from fully recovered to death.

The study is double blinded — meaning neither the participant nor the experiments know who’s receiving the actual treatment


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3039915 04/21/20 12:47 PM
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Maybe some good news for a change. Stanford university just completed a study and the virus may not be as bad as originally thought:

"Based on their results, the Stanford researchers estimated the mortality rate in Santa Clara County to be between 0.12% and 0.2%. By comparison, the average death rate of the seasonal flu is 0.1%."

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-17/coronavirus-antibodies-study-santa-clara-county

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
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That could be good news, but unless we have more testing we will never know.

Of course the other problem is that the total death figures are suppressed by the fact that no one wastes a precious test kid on a someone already dead, and our social distancing and stay-at-home orders have suppressed the spread of a disease that is much more contagious than the flu.

I know there are huge numbers of scientists who specialize in disease prevention and control, and that the longer we can stall off our eventual exposure to the disease, the better chances we have.

I've read some doubts about a vaccine being helpful as some people have caught it twice, but we still don't know enough about that to understand why.

I'm definitely hopeful for the future, but getting there will not be easy.

Insights and incites by Notes


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040042 04/22/20 12:53 AM
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I don't know why those in control don't simply say "I don't know." Because they don't.

A lot of what's happening is guesswork. This is all too new, and too different, to be able to project about the future based on experiences of the past, under different circumstances.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040047 04/22/20 01:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
I don't know why those in control don't simply say "I don't know." Because they don't.

A lot of what's happening is guesswork. This is all too new, and too different, to be able to project about the future based on experiences of the past, under different circumstances.

Well, this begs political comment, no? :- D

I could go on, but I won't. Cheers, Kuru


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040066 04/22/20 07:01 AM
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Tonight I read that autopsies indicate the first Covid_19 deaths in the USA were in Santa Clara County CA, well before the death in Kirkland WA.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html

That's something we didin't know.

I don't have cites for the other topics below. I check Yahoo news and Yahoo finance throughout the day and they circulate articles constantly.

Recently I've read that the "miracle malaria drug" is not effective and may cause more deaths. The sampling was pretty small as I recall.
So, maybe we still don't know on that one. If it was more than marginallly effective I'm sure the data would have been different - just an opinion.

Another area of testing is for antibodies in those who've survived Covid_19. Not everybody has the antibodies, in fact a fairly small percentage do have them. They don't know if that provides immunity and if so, for how long.
I don't know either.

That's 3 recent things that they are starting to learn more about, there will be more. And then, the virus will mutate...


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040156 04/22/20 11:20 PM
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I posted a lot of similar things above on the 11th concerning the actual number of infections, possible number of people with antibodies etc.

Nothing has really changed other than these more recent studies validate what some of those earlier studies said and I wrote about. The actual infection rate at least here in CA is closer to 30% overall and the antibody tests seem to confirm that but some antibody tests are really sketchy right now because not all are equal. Some of those seem to have a very high false positive rate while others are good so who knows? Still, bottom line and it's just my hopeful opinion, the true hospitalization and fatality rates really are much, much lower than all the news reports keep saying. Using basic math to extrapolate using several studies including this new Stanford one, that means that any one individual has a very low risk of getting hospitalized and a very, very low risk of dying and that applies to all ages. Stanford says the actual number of people who have had this is 50 to 85 times greater than the current numbers show which lowers the mortality. Older with underlying conditions still have a higher risk but that's a higher risk based on a much lower overall number for everybody.

This opinion will be easily tested very soon. A lot of commentators are saying the same thing, they think it's too soon for some states to begin opening up but they hope it's not a problem. I feel exactly the same. Yes, it could be too soon but I really hope and think it's ok. One big deal is Boeing started their aircraft production back up starting Monday in Seattle. 27,000 workers but I don't know how many are actually going in. They said they have strict protocols in place to protect everybody. Here's an article about it:

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/20/839138167/how-boeing-employees-feel-as-some-return-to-work

In a few more weeks we'll get a better picture. And, in spite of my opinion I'm still paranoid as hell until I have more really solid facts. I went shopping on the 18th and no I didn't just walk in with a mask but then carelessly let it drop because I didn't like it or not use sanitizer on the cart or any of that stuff. I had gloves to pick stuff up with. Oh no I was as careful as anyone here. I just really feel it's not that necessary and it's wasting everybody's time but I'm not ready to walk the walk yet. I'm in the talking part only for now, haha.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3040159 04/23/20 12:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
I posted a lot of similar things above on the 11th concerning the actual number of infections, possible number of people with antibodies etc.
Bob

There is no question that the shortage of available tests for Covid_19 has caused us to miss the total number of cases, I see articles discussing that topic often.
Ther is another side to that story.

We don't know how many die and are not tested. Optimism regarding the relatively low number of verified deaths considered in terms of the potentially high number of infected survivors looks better than pessimism regarding the potential number of deaths that have occured without testing in terms of the confirmed cases of infected survivors.

Neither method is based on facts, both are speculation.
One post back - last post on the 3rd page - I mention 2 confirmed deaths that are now the earliest known Covid_19 deaths in the US. They were found during autopsies. How many have been buried or cremated who died without testing? We don't know and we never will know.

I don't put any stock whatsoever in cherry-picked numbers.

If you were a health care worker in say NYC and you had 200 tests avaialble, 10 untested deaths and 350 incoming patients who needed to be tested, what would you do with those tests? They won't help the dead.
You'll use them to try diagnose and try to save lives. You won't call the news reporters and tell them about it, you are way too busy already.

Until we are able to test EVERYBODY who needs a test - and we are a long ways off from being able to do that - we don't know what the percentage of survivors to deceased actually is and even if and when we do get to that point we will never know how many have died of Covid_19 nor will is it likely we will know how many have had it and lived for a long time to come.

In the end, it is speculation and nothing more.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
KuruPrionz #3040160 04/23/20 01:18 AM
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Originally Posted by KuruPrionz
Originally Posted by Anderton
I don't know why those in control don't simply say "I don't know." Because they don't.

A lot of what's happening is guesswork. This is all too new, and too different, to be able to project about the future based on experiences of the past, under different circumstances.

Well, this begs political comment, no? :- D
I guess so, but I didn't intend it that way. I wish I heard more officials talking like, well, Bob:

Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
In a few more weeks we'll get a better picture. And, in spite of my opinion I'm still paranoid as hell until I have more really solid facts...I was as careful as anyone here. I just really feel it's not that necessary and it's wasting everybody's time but I'm not ready to walk the walk yet. I'm in the talking part only for now, haha.
That's the reality. We don't have solid facts. We don't know what's going to happen when things re-open. We do know it's taking a chance, but we don't know the magnitude of that chance.

Today I had to venture into the outside world to pick up mail from my PO box. Afterward I drove into downtown Nashville for the first time since all this happened, just to see what was/was not open, and how people were reacting. It was a shock. Lower Broadway, which is usually packed with tourists, lines snaking around the block for restaurants, and bands in a bunch of clubs supplying the soundtrack for the city's tourist ghetto, was essentially empty. All the lights inside the stores and restaurants were off. There were maybe a half-dozen visible people per block, maybe less.

Although I did think now would be a great time to get a film crew out there, and film post-apocalypse stock footage. You wouldn't need permits from the city to clear the streets...they're already clear.

Places are opening up here in Tennessee. Where that will lead, I don't know. I'm staying home for now. That's what I normally do anyway, there's a studio here smile

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040163 04/23/20 01:36 AM
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"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain

You can make the statistics say pretty much anything you want.

Until they test all the dead people we will not have any idea how many die from this disease. And with the shortage of test kits, we aren't going to waste them on dead people

Until they test the entire population we will not have any idea how many are infected. And with the shortage of test kits we cannot test everybody.

Therefore you can quote any statistic you like, one will show a lower death/hospitalization rate, another will show a higher death/hospitalization rate and neither one will be accurate.

You may as well consult an Ouija Board or pick random numbers.

Am I ready to go back to work? That really doesn't matter as the Governor has banned bands. Am I eager to go back to work? I miss gigging a great deal, it's my second favorite thing to do, but I'm not eager to go out of self-isolation. The death rate could be 0.0001% but if it gets me or my wife it's as good as 100%.

I can see why people are eager to get back to work. Many of us really need the money. But personally I think that until we know more about how to treat and prevent this virus, I think I'll stay home. There is too much unknown to assess the odds, so I think I'll err on the side of caution.

I read a lot of people saying we should go back to work and do that herd immunity thing, but I see none of them going back to work out in the public sector where they are facing scores of people every day.

And when I hear people who are so rich they are insulated from the general public saying we should restart the economy so that their unfathomable wealth doesn't lose it's value, they are telling us that their money, their profits, their billions are more important than our lives. Do you think Trump, Bezos, or any of those hedge fund managers are even going to the local supermarket?

But when I leave my home every other week for perishable groceries, I am thankful for the people who are literally risking making the ultimate sacrifice so that I can have dinner.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3040167 04/23/20 01:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
Until they test all the dead people we will not have any idea how many die from this disease. And with the shortage of test kits, we aren't going to waste them on dead people

Testing positive doesn't mean that was the cause of death. Many people test positive with no symptoms and can die from any number of things. If somebody gets shot in the head and the coroner performs a test and they test positive, did they die from coronavirus? They can determine cause of death without a test via autopsy. They know what the lungs look like in a person who died from coronavirus.


Dan

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040168 04/23/20 01:57 AM
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A different study in Boston showed that 147 of 408 people at a homeless shelter had the virus and 83% had no symptoms. No one died. Another random study in Iceland showed 1221 of 9199 persons (13.3%) who were recruited for targeted testing had positive results for infection. Iceland has a total of 10 deaths due to the virus (not sure if any were in the study group).

Eventually people will have to accept the science.

Last edited by PrairieGuy; 04/23/20 01:58 AM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
PrairieGuy #3040170 04/23/20 02:05 AM
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Originally Posted by PrairieGuy
A different study in Boston showed that 147 of 408 people at a homeless shelter had the virus and 83% had no symptoms. No one died. Another random study in Iceland showed 1221 of 9199 persons (13.3%) who were recruited for targeted testing had positive results for infection. Iceland has a total of 10 deaths due to the virus (not sure if any were in the study group).

Eventually people will have to accept the science.

Once we have some science to accept. It's nice that people in a Boston homeless shelter an Iceland didn't die, but that's scant consolation to New Yorkers.

As I said...people just don't know.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3040171 04/23/20 02:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
Am I eager to go back to work? I miss gigging a great deal, it's my second favorite thing to do
Well, that's good to hear...then at least you can still play Scrabble. smile

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040176 04/23/20 02:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Originally Posted by PrairieGuy
A different study in Boston showed that 147 of 408 people at a homeless shelter had the virus and 83% had no symptoms. No one died. Another random study in Iceland showed 1221 of 9199 persons (13.3%) who were recruited for targeted testing had positive results for infection. Iceland has a total of 10 deaths due to the virus (not sure if any were in the study group).

Eventually people will have to accept the science.

Once we have some science to accept. It's nice that people in a Boston homeless shelter an Iceland didn't die, but that's scant consolation to New Yorkers.

As I said...people just don't know.
Studies are scientific. That's why science and the medical industry conduct them.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
PrairieGuy #3040178 04/23/20 02:32 AM
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Originally Posted by PrairieGuy
Originally Posted by Anderton
Originally Posted by PrairieGuy
A different study in Boston showed that 147 of 408 people at a homeless shelter had the virus and 83% had no symptoms. No one died. Another random study in Iceland showed 1221 of 9199 persons (13.3%) who were recruited for targeted testing had positive results for infection. Iceland has a total of 10 deaths due to the virus (not sure if any were in the study group).

Eventually people will have to accept the science.

Once we have some science to accept. It's nice that people in a Boston homeless shelter an Iceland didn't die, but that's scant consolation to New Yorkers.

As I said...people just don't know.
Studies are scientific. That's why science and the medical industry conduct them.

Yes and eventually you get enough samples from enough different environments that you can post a theory, which is subject to change as more data becomes available. That's how science works.
I don't think we are there yet, testing globally is far behind potential. The variables are extremely complex and thus difficult to parse.

So it is still speculation


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040179 04/23/20 02:34 AM
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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
KuruPrionz #3040180 04/23/20 02:50 AM
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Originally Posted by KuruPrionz
The important part of the article is this : "The totals include deaths from COVID-19 as well as those from other causes..."

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
PrairieGuy #3040183 04/23/20 03:07 AM
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Originally Posted by PrairieGuy
Originally Posted by KuruPrionz
The important part of the article is this : "The totals include deaths from COVID-19 as well as those from other causes..."

Of course, not disputing that. I made no claims, "here we have more data" is pretty open-ended.

On the other hand, it was an interesting way to look for discrepencies, no?

As it stands and on it's own, it proves nothing.
The same is true for any data points concerning unknowns. It is unknown how many people in the US and the World have had Covid_19. It is unknown how many people in the US and the World have died from Covid_19.
Those numbers will never be known.

Statements purporting to provide facts regarding the proportion of recovery to death are therefore in the same category as the article I linked - more data to be compiled into a theory that we may eventually accept or that may change in some substantial way as more data is collected. Again, that's how science works. Cheers, Kuru


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040186 04/23/20 03:28 AM
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Of course more data is needed. But 3 separate medical studies in 2 different countries tested in excess of 10,000 people and showed extremely low fatality rates. It's insulting to trained medical professionals to dismiss it as Ouija board guesses or random numbers.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
PrairieGuy #3040188 04/23/20 04:28 AM
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Originally Posted by PrairieGuy
Of course more data is needed. But 3 separate medical studies in 2 different countries tested in excess of 10,000 people and showed extremely low fatality rates. It's insulting to trained medical professionals to dismiss it as Ouija board guesses or random numbers.


I am not dismissing it at all, it is useful data. Currently this website: https://covidusa.net : shows 842, 376 cases - 46,769 deaths and 84,050 recoveries in the USA.

Useful data using around less than 2% of the total US covid cases is certainly good to have as right now any information is useful.

I don't think that trained medical professionals consider it sufficient to come to concrete conclusions, at the same time it is progress and all progress is good.
I'm sorry if you've misunderstood me or my intentions. I am not dimissing anything, I want this to go well for all of us across the planet and sooner would be better than later.
But it is dangerous to jump to conclusions too early, that's not good either and can endanger lives. Cheers, Kuru


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040190 04/23/20 04:36 AM
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As an example, a couple of esteemed medical organizations have now given up on the "miracle maleria drug" cure and have expressed regret that it probably cost some lives to find out that it does not work.

Sorry I don't have links for those articles but it is recent news, just a day or two old.

We all wanted it to work, anything that works is good. That's got to be difficult on the families who lost a loved one.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040213 04/23/20 01:19 PM
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I didn't mean to imply people are using an Ouija board, what I am saying is that using small sample groups especially with the shortage of supplies. The thing I'm saying is that right now it's impossible to know. We can and should collect as much data as possible but keep in mind the margin of error is huge.

We can pick this study that shows this and that study that shows that and the results could be very conflicting. There is no way for me and I'd guess most of us to know which is closer to the truth.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3040250 04/23/20 07:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
We can pick this study that shows this and that study that shows that and the results could be very conflicting. There is no way for me and I'd guess most of us to know which is closer to the truth.

There's not even a definitive answer on whether those who had the corona virus are immune. A drug company in Israel that's working on a vaccine says it may not be possible due to the way the virus mutates. Or maybe it will be a hot, humid Summer, and the virus won't cope with the heat. Or maybe it will roar back in the Fall.

It's human nature to want an explanation for anything unexplainable. But in this case, no one really has a clue. The best we can hope for is that some people can come up with reasonably informed speculation that can at least not point us in the wrong direction.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040286 04/24/20 12:32 AM
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So far, the models that John Hopkins University have been using - ones I've seen since late January or early February - have been eerily accurate for the U.S. frown

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040297 04/24/20 01:46 AM
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But like weather forecasting models, don't they get revised a lot? I don't have a problem with that, it's the nature of data...more data means more accurate models. IIRC the models in the earlier part of the year were predicting more in the range of 100K - 240K dead assuming decent mitigation procedures, far more if not. Then as social distancing started to take hold in a way that was better than expected, it was revised down to 60,000 but now it's been bumped up to 66,000 due to taking nursing home deaths into account.

All I know for sure is that this is something like I've never experienced. People can say "the regular flu kills 30,000 a year" or whatever, but this has all happened in a few months. The fall of the economy, the overloading of the health system, the massive numbers of deaths is occurring in a really compressed time period.

So I guess my original question remains: it isn't going away, so now what? I have no idea.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040302 04/24/20 02:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Then as social distancing started to take hold in a way that was better than expected, it was revised down to 60,000 but now it's been bumped up to 66,000 due to taking nursing home deaths into account.

Look for more revisions, we are tragically close to 50,000 deaths this evening.
There is pressure to re-open our country for business, I understand why.

If it is too early - and my best guess is that it is far too early - then we might have a new surge of infection.
I hope not but I don't find current events comforting.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040511 04/25/20 04:25 AM
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Lets change the subject a little bit and let me rephrase Craig's original question:

"OK, so we're heading for another Great Depression, now what?"

Here's one definition of that:

Depressions are characterized by their length, by abnormally large increases in unemployment, falls in the availability of credit (often due to some form of banking or financial crisis), shrinking output as buyers dry up and suppliers cut back on production and investment, more bankruptcies including sovereign debt defaults, significantly reduced amounts of trade and commerce (especially international trade), as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations (often due to currency devaluations). Price deflation, financial crises, stock market crash, and bank failures are also common elements of a depression that do not normally occur during a recession.

None of us here lived through the Great Depression. My grandfather did. He was born in 1898, was a WW1 Marine and lived through the Depression. He told me how bad things were and tons of books have been written about it. It would be so much worse than anything any of us have ever seen. I mean losing your house, your savings, no more Social Security or welfare checks and we wind up standing in lines at a soup kitchen so we literally won't starve to death. We're resilient, the economy has a lot of built in protections but it's like a big rubber band. It can go on, and on, and on and we think it's fine but one morning we wake up turn on the news and bam, right between the eyes. It's over.

My take on this. Two choices. First, Great Depression Part II. Second, follow the plan knowing it could be too soon, accept the odds and go back to work in time to save us all from the first choice. Yes, there is a third choice. Keep living off the government until such time as the odds of dying are low enough for us to go back to work. Define "low enough". How many fatalities is an acceptable number? How long can the government handouts last? How long before the business closings, bankruptcies, foreclosures and financial institution failures makes it too late to avoid the first choice? I don't know but it could be sooner rather than later.

We're standing on the precipice and a second Great Depression is a very real possibility here. 26 million unemployed and heading for 30? Those are historic Great Depression numbers and numbers like that cannot be allowed to stand for long or we're all hosed. Want proof? During the Great Depression the unemployment rate hit 24%. As of yesterday Forbes has it at 20%. Another week or two of big claims and we'll be right there.

We all know about the lessor of two evils. Another Great Depression or work with COVID 19? This is why I take the hopeful side of all of these stats. It's because I feel there's no choice, we're restarting the economy regardless. It's like Dr. Strangelove. Stop worrying and learn to love the Bomb.

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040513 04/25/20 04:41 AM
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I think given the opportunity, the market will find ways to adjust.

I am a fan of some of the various restaurant and bar rescue type shows on cable channels and was very interested to see some interviews on news outlets with John Taffer of Bar Rescue, and Robert Irvine of Restaurant: Impossible. Both made some very good points, suggestions, and predictions about changes that must occur in restaurants and bars along with what impact it will have on their business models.

Among other things, one has to do with distancing. One point made was even when all this is over, restaurants will likely have to remove tables/seating to keep distance between tables, which would result in far less seating capacity. One result could be the end of "lunch hour". In order for a restaurant to stay in business with limited capacity might mean turning the whole crowd 3 times instead of 1. That coupled with just the time and logistics of getting lunch in might mean a staggered lunch schedule that spans a few hours where everybody doesn't go to lunch from 12-1 but instead splits between 3 shifts, or something along those lines. That was mainly Taffer talking about that but Robert Irvine touched on similar points in a separate interview.

Irvine went more into some of the changes that the restaurants will have to make to give warm feelings, safety, and security visiting their establishment. He went into detail around additional measures they would have to actively take in terms of cleanliness, disinfecting, etc as well as officially documenting their procedures and expectations for the customers. It will be about the customer feeling secure that he restaurant has proper measures in place and are in fact executing those measures.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040534 04/25/20 11:17 AM
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Good points - "business as usual" will have to become business done differently. It will be interesting to see what restaurants do as they run on very thin margins already.

I want to make a point about taking people's temperatures. IMNSHO, that's next to useless. While it might catch someone who is sick, we now know that this virus is being spread largely by asymptomatic carriers. To say, "you can come in because your temp is okay" gives a false sense of security because that person might be an asymptomatic spreader. I guess it might help catch people who are starting to show symptoms, but I don't know if it's worth it.

This article talks about some of the things I've mentioned before. Those who recover from the virus will still need help from both the mental and physical damage.

The Challenges of Post-COVID-19 Care

Quote
Patients who survive intubation often find themselves profoundly debilitated, experiencing weakness, memory loss, anxiety, depression, and hallucinations.

Among the patients I care for at the hospital is a young woman recovering from covid-19. To keep her blood oxygenated, she needs a device called a non-rebreather mask. The mask is connected by a tube to a one-litre translucent bag, which is in turn connected to an oxygen cannister in the wall; when she exhales, one-way valves shunt expired carbon dioxide into the room and prevent her from rebreathing it. It’s considered an advanced oxygen-delivery device, because it supplies more oxygen than a simple nasal cannula; it is also cumbersome and uncomfortable to wear. But the mask, my patient says, isn’t her biggest problem; neither is her cough or shortness of breath. Her biggest problem is her nightmares. She can’t sleep. When she closes her eyes, she’s scared she won’t wake up. If she does fall asleep, she jolts awake, frenzied and sweating, consumed by a sense of doom. She sees spider-like viruses crawling over her. She sees her friends and family dying. She sees herself intubated in an I.C.U. for the rest of time.

Patients who survive intubation often find themselves profoundly debilitated. They experience weakness, memory loss, anxiety, depression, and hallucinations, and have difficulty sleeping, walking, and talking. A quarter of them can’t push themselves to a seated position; one-third have symptoms of P.T.S.D. A 2013 study of discharged I.C.U. patients, many of whom had been intubated, found that, three months after leaving the I.C.U., forty per cent of them had cognitive test scores one and a half standard deviations below the mean—roughly equivalent to the effect of a moderate traumatic brain injury. A quarter showed cognitive declines comparable to early Alzheimer’s disease. The longer patients were in the I.C.U., the worse the consequences became.

The joy we all feel when patients at our hospital survive acute covid-19 is followed, quickly, by the acknowledgment that it could be a long time before they fully recover, if they ever do. Many will suffer through months of rehabilitation in unfamiliar facilities, cared for by masked strangers, unable to receive friends or loved ones. Families who just weeks ago had been happy, healthy, and intact now face the prospect of prolonged separation. Many spouses and children will become caregivers, which comes with its own emotional and physical challenges. Roughly two-thirds of family caregivers show depressive symptoms after a loved one’s stay in the I.C.U. Many continue to struggle years later.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040557 04/25/20 01:58 PM
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I am very concerned about lives of the elderly, "the disposable generation" of which I am a member.

I'm also concerned about the economy, a depression, as well as rampant inflation with the new money being printed.

Since Nixon and his GOP congress took us off the gold standard inflation has already gone crazy. Gas used to cost 33 cents per gallon, a new top end Cadillac cost $6,000, new suburban homes started at $10,000 -- $20k for a high end waterfront home with ocean access in Florida, chicken sold for 19 cents per pound, a bottle of Coke or Pepsi 6 cents, coffee in a restaurant for a nickel, and at a diner you could get a T-Bone steak dinner with potatoes and a veggie for 99 cents -- add another nickel for a soft drink or coffee. Interest on credit cards topped at 6%.

Of course that means our post gold standard savings that grew at market rates or compound interest is actually worth less in buying power than it did when I put it in the bank or the mutual fund. That's the price of fiat money with no backing and it is exactly what the bankers wanted.

Now we are printing more money without backing while we are giving the richest of the rich more tax breaks. And big biz has seen their relief checks Trump and other Hotels, Airlines, and others have received billions. I have yet to see a penny from either unemployment or the supposed stimulus check. That fiat money is apparently going to the big businesses, not the people who need it most. Has anyone here received their stimulus and/or unemployment money yet?

And unlike the Great Depression we have FDIC so your money in the bank is "relatively safe". The gov't will use taxpayer funds to bail out the banks again (when FDIC was supposed to bail out the depositors, not the banks).

So what is the answer?

Instead of welfare checks should we do what FDR did and put people to work in infrastructure improvement? I like that idea in theory, but how do we do that and keep social distancing?

I certainly don't have the answer, but I'm content to wait longer hoping the scientific/medical community can come up with either a preventative or treatment option that greatly reduces the death and debilitation effects of this plague. How long? I'm not sure, but I don't think we are ready to go back to the new 'normal' yet.

When it gets to the new normal, how will it affect my main income source, gigging? Bands were banned in Florida because we draw crowds. Without a vaccine or cure keeping 6' apart is a problem.

I guess I'm not contributing anything concrete to the problem, just raising the same questions.

I hope someone wiser than myself comes up with an answer I can get behind.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040567 04/25/20 03:28 PM
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It's not easy that's for sure but I am still hopeful. To answer one of your points Notes. Yes, millions of people including many of my clients have received their stimulus money. If you've read my tax thread I explained how that works and why some haven't gotten it yet. It's not some nefarious plot, it's just the IRS managing the rules concerning how it goes out. I also explained if it applies to you what you need to do to get your money. As for big business and not the intended small businesses getting money, that has been a huge problem. Jim Cramer on his Mad Money show on CNBC explained what happened. This legislation was rushed and some things were missed. Government is not in the business of directly loaning money, it was given to the banks to loan out with the assumption they would give priority to small business. But, big business has "concierge" personal relationships with their bankers that the little guys don't. Those bankers simply gave priority to them and not to all the little guys loan applications. Disgraceful, really bad stuff and the Administration is working on forcing those companies, especially the publicly traded ones, to give the money back. Some have already done that. This latest round of money just signed into law is supposed to have corrected that.

Another positive article this morning, this time about the Wisconsin election. Remember all the angst about that? We can't have a regular election at this time, we'll all die sort of thing? The Supreme Court issued a controversial and rushed 5-4 ruling rejecting the arguments to delay it or make it vote by mail. Well, it's now been two weeks which is the time period we all know is needed for new cases to show up. No spike in cases. Frankly I was worried about that and I think this is great news.

The reasons why are probably related to all the different things we've brought up in this thread. Whatever it is Wisconsin had their election and lived to tell about it.

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3040575 04/25/20 04:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
We all know about the lessor of two evils. Another Great Depression or work with COVID 19? This is why I take the hopeful side of all of these stats. It's because I feel there's no choice, we're restarting the economy regardless. It's like Dr. Strangelove. Stop worrying and learn to love the Bomb.

Bob

If we truly knew our situation it might make sense to "take the hopeful side of these "stats" (quote marks on "stats" are mine).
But at this point we do not know enough by any means and the opportunity to learn more about the recent past is extremely labor intensive. The Governor of California ordered autopsies done on recent deaths in Santa Clara county after 2 autopsies showed that the first currently known deaths occured in CA, not WA as was believed up to this point. It could be valuable information but it will require digging graves back up. Those who were cremated? Those stats are lost forever, we will never know.

A very recent article speaks of people who didn't even know they were infected (because the wealthiest country in the world can't seem to figure out how to provide testing for it's citizens) and died of strokes.
This is a new finding, another way that Covid_19 kills humans.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/

At this point Saturday morning we have 900,000+ cases and 52,000+ deaths. Actual numbers are unknown due to a lack of testing. It is likely they are much higher.

As to the accuracy of our current stats, it is like saying a bowl of macoroni and cheese has 20 noodles in it when there are probably 50 or 60.
Gambling with other people's health and lives with facts that are woefully incomplete is something I can not and will not do. We will never know the full extent, I would settle for having a better idea of where we are now but that does not seem to be forthcoming any time soon. Yes, everybody is going to die sooner or later, if I recall correctly that was part of the defense of one of the defendents at Nuremburg.

Cheers, Kuru


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040615 04/25/20 09:21 PM
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Buckminster Fuller once said that if every person in the world devoted two weeks to maintaining infrastructure - not just roads, but other necessities like farming and the electrical grid - they could all be entitled to food, clothing, shelter, and medical care for free because there would be enough resources to go around. The difference between that and a communist model was that the only mandatory aspect would be those two weeks of service. The other 50 weeks, if you wanted to start a business and buy a yacht, go for it. But if you're a musician and you just want to sit at home and record, then you could do that too. Jobs would still exist; you'd still need doctors doing more than two weeks of work a year. But there would still be jobs, and there would still be an economy. Money would still change hands. The only difference is there would be enough to go around, albeit on a "minimum viable product" level.

That may sound naïve and utopian, but taking a broader view, there is enough wealth, and there are enough resources on this planet, to provide the essentials needed for existence to everyone. Where any system falls apart is when people take without giving. For example, you could dissolve Bank of America and provide enough to take care of a limited number of people for a limited amount of time. But when that runs out, then you have to find another bank to dissolve.

Fuller's point was that if people acted like they were part of a society, felt an obligation to society, and understood the benefits of thinking of wealth as something created by the individuals who make up a society, there would be enough to go around. If someone needed clothes, they wouldn't get Dior...but they wouldn't freeze to death, either.

Of course you would need to match expertise with gigs. For example, I'm good with technology and computers. Maybe I'd work on testing medical devices for two weeks to make sure batteries could still hold a charge, calibrations were within specs, etc. A medical system would be like insurance - if everyone contributed to the medical system in some way, that would free up enough resources to give care to those who needed it. For example, how much do hospitals have to spend on uniforms? If people made the uniforms as part of their two weeks of service, that would free up resources.

Maybe a truck driver would be asked to bring food from farms to distribution centers. Maybe a shut-in would make clothing for two weeks out of the year. Certainly, there would be a LOT of unanswered logistical questions...but imagine what the world would be like if we could find answers. Then again, I'm not convinced we've found answers for the current unanswered logistical questions.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040625 04/25/20 09:56 PM
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https://wxow.com/2020/04/25/wisconsin-reports-largest-1-day-increase-of-covid-19-cases/

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Wisconsin reports largest 1-day increase of COVID-19 cases

MADISON, Wis (AP/WXOW) - Wisconsin health officials report that 331 tests for the coronavirus have come back positive in the last 24 hours, the largest single-day rise since the outbreak started.

An additional four people have died.

The update raises the total number of positive cases to 5,687 and the statewide deaths to 266.

State Department of Health Services data shows that 24 percent of infected people have been hospitalized.

The actual number of infections is thought to be far higher because many people have not been tested, and studies suggest people can be infected with the virus without feeling sick.

No indication either way of election impact on Wisconsin's case count.

Generally, most states still appear to be on the upswing, looking the interactive graph ("How quickly is your state's case count growing?"). NY is the only one that looks like its flattening

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

Last edited by GovernorSilver; 04/25/20 10:08 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040655 04/26/20 12:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
But like weather forecasting models, don't they get revised a lot? I don't have a problem with that, it's the nature of data...more data means more accurate models. IIRC the models in the earlier part of the year were predicting more in the range of 100K - 240K dead assuming decent mitigation procedures, far more if not. Then as social distancing started to take hold in a way that was better than expected, it was revised down to 60,000 but now it's been bumped up to 66,000 due to taking nursing home deaths into account.

All I know for sure is that this is something like I've never experienced. People can say "the regular flu kills 30,000 a year" or whatever, but this has all happened in a few months. The fall of the economy, the overloading of the health system, the massive numbers of deaths is occurring in a really compressed time period.

So I guess my original question remains: it isn't going away, so now what? I have no idea.

They are based on models, so yes, they get revised as additional data occurs. The model that initially forecast the higher numbers was not John Hopkins, but Imperial College London, who themselves pulled the numbers back after just a few days. But given that we have over 50,000 deaths and counting (and the U.S. has about 4.25% of the world's population and 25% of the coronavirus deaths), let's just hope that the lower numbers are accurate. It's difficult to predict people's behavior, and if people are going to open back up prematurely, it could knock the numbers out of whack.

But what's frightening is how accurate the initial John Hopkins figures were from January/February. You know, back when no one was listening to health professionals. frown

As for your last question, I don't have a definitive answer, but hey, I'll give it a try.

To me, the best idea is to be pragmatically science-based, listen to health professionals and historians of previous pandemics, stomp on it hard with "shelter in place" and be aware that second and third waves of it can come. Given that many previous pandemics that have had a more brutal second wave, we need to create the infrastructure in place to deal with that. If we don't do that and open up things prematurely in the hopes that we do less harm to the economy, we seriously risk having far more deaths and a worse economy ultimately. I also feel that the best guideline is one of saving lives. This is the most humane, compassionate guideline in my opinion, which should always be what we consider foremost, and one that seems to be also supported by science and history and health professionals.

And it probably goes without saying that you place maximum resources toward creating a vaccine, working collaboratively with other scientists from around the world.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
GovernorSilver #3040669 04/26/20 02:48 AM
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Also from NPR:

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...rus-cases-tied-to-controversial-election

Not trying to be political but the headline is negative, the main thrust of the article is negative until you get to the very end:

State public health officials said they hadn't yet seen a spike in election-related cases.

"We have not yet seen indications of an impact from the election," said Andrea Palm, the state Department of Health Services secretary-designee.

My overall point here is not to quibble about the headline although it's pretty typical. The point is say it is 7. Say it's 10 or 15 or even 20. 200,000 people voted. Not to sound crass but as a society I think those are acceptable numbers.

To get back to what I said earlier I just got home from shopping. I developed a hot water faucet leak in the bathtub in my master bath adjacent to my bedroom about a week ago The weather here in SoCal just turned very toasty and last night I had to get up out of bed, go outside and turn the water off because the leak was making that part of the house like a sauna. I mean seriously warn and very high humidity because the leak was fairly severe, like DC in August with no AC. No turn off valve in or by the tub. Anyway to my point I went to the Depot to get some parts and as long as I was there did some more grocery shopping next door. In spite of my optimism I still did the whole thing, mask, gloves, sanitizer. It's almost second nature and really isn't a big deal. With no haircut and a mask I look like I'm about to rob the place but hey, so does everybody else. No TP or paper towels. I really don't get that at this point. In the beginning I understood it completely but now? Whatever.

I get it, nothing really definitive but the signs keep pointing to we're going to be ok. The next big shoe to drop after Wisconsin is Boeing. Give them another week and I'll go out on that shaky limb and say they will be ok too. Boeing is tougher because in spite of all their precautions I've already read that many times some workers are right next to each other in a cramped space in a wing or fuselage running cables, doing testing, etc. It gets close in those areas and it's very uncomfortable to keep the mask up so many are pulling it down and it's causing some friction between people. Other workers are at a more isolated terminal monitoring whatever. It will be a good test.

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3040700 04/26/20 04:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
Also from NPR:

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...rus-cases-tied-to-controversial-election

Not trying to be political but the headline is negative, the main thrust of the article is negative until you get to the very end:

State public health officials said they hadn't yet seen a spike in election-related cases.

"We have not yet seen indications of an impact from the election," said Andrea Palm, the state Department of Health Services secretary-designee.

My overall point here is not to quibble about the headline although it's pretty typical. The point is say it is 7. Say it's 10 or 15 or even 20. 200,000 people voted. Not to sound crass but as a society I think those are acceptable numbers.

Both "sides" in the article could be correct. They may very well be 7 related corona virus infections; whether that counts as a "spike" is debatable.

But the issue isn't whether any number is acceptable, but why there were so many problems involved in voting by mail in Wisconsin. The same problems didn't happen with other states, which would imply there's no inherent problem with voting by mail, only with Wisconsin's implementation. Thousands of absentee ballots were thrown out because they arrived to voters after the voting deadline, so those votes weren't counted. There were also three tubs of undelivered absentee ballots from voters.

To get into it any further would require speculating as to whether this was due to voter suppression based on political considerations, or simple incompetence within various components of the voting system. Either one is unacceptable, so Wisconsin's plans not to make any changes in order to fix the problems that surfaced is also not acceptable. If a system has problems, you fix it, unless you don't want to for some reason.

There has been election chicanery from both parties for as long as I can remember. Why people insist on putting a partisan cast on it is beyond me. It's a bi-partisan problem, and both Republicans and Democrats should be hopping mad when votes from their party of choice or the other party don't count, aren't counted, or attempts are made to keep their votes from counting. If what happened in Wisconsin was indeed voter suppression to hinder Democratic candidates, Republicans should be just as angry, and demand the system be fixed. Otherwise, there's no guarantee for Republicans that Democrats won't do the same thing when they control the levers of power.

As Bob Marley sang, "Remember that, when the rain fall, it don't fall on one man's housetop." Whether we like it or not, we're all in this together.

Last edited by Anderton; 04/26/20 04:21 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040706 04/26/20 05:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Both "sides" in the article could be correct. They may very well be 7 related corona virus infections; whether that counts as a "spike" is debatable.

But the issue isn't whether any number is acceptable, but why there were so many problems involved in voting by mail in Wisconsin. The same problems didn't happen with other states, which would imply there's no inherent problem with voting by mail, only with Wisconsin's implementation. Thousands of absentee ballots were thrown out because they arrived to voters after the voting deadline, so those votes weren't counted. There were also three tubs of undelivered absentee ballots from voters.

To get into it any further would require speculating as to whether this was due to voter suppression based on political considerations, or simple incompetence within various components of the voting system. Either one is unacceptable, so Wisconsin's plans not to make any changes in order to fix the problems that surfaced is also not acceptable. If a system has problems, you fix it, unless you don't want to for some reason.

There has been election chicanery from both parties for as long as I can remember. Why people insist on putting a partisan cast on it is beyond me. It's a bi-partisan problem, and both Republicans and Democrats should be hopping mad when votes from their party of choice or the other party don't count, aren't counted, or attempts are made to keep their votes from counting. If what happened in Wisconsin was indeed voter suppression to hinder Democratic candidates, Republicans should be just as angry, and demand the system be fixed. Otherwise, there's no guarantee for Republicans that Democrats won't do the same thing when they control the levers of power.

As Bob Marley sang, "Remember that, when the rain fall, it don't fall on one man's housetop." Whether we like it or not, we're all in this together.

A well considered response, thank you. I found myself unable to answer within the limits of acceptable discourse.
I fully agree with those limits, if you don't have them it cannot improve conversation and often ruins it.

I will say that we've had a very successful vote by mail procedure in place here in WA for quite a few years. Recently it evolved and postage is prepaid now. There have been incremental improvements over time.
There is considerable oversight by multiple parties at each step - providing accountability and integrity to the process.
I had my signature questioned at one point. I was able to confirm identity and validate my vote, it would have been a major effort for anybody but my actual self to do that. So I've seen the oversight and integrity in action. It would be pretty tough to get any significant number of fraudulent votes vetted.

Some costs are increased - printing and postage primarily. Some costs are reduced, we have drop boxes for votes in populated areas but no polling places, no logistics involving such, no volunteers to vet, no paid state employees to coordinate and implement etc.

It works well and has proven integrity. And, some folks are opposed to it. Too bad, so sad, call Dad!!! Cheers, Kuru


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3040707 04/26/20 05:37 PM
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Au contraire,Craig

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...ssing_in_last_four_elections_143033.html

Voting by mail has been a HUGE issue all over the country.

Forget the missing ballots, suppression and all that. Just throw those ideas out. To me the biggest problem is legal. If an election is close enough to trigger a recount and it's all mail in ballots, what then? The only way to validate a mail in ballot is to verity the signature. Think of your signature card at the bank, or having two witnesses to verify your signature on your will or any number of official documents. Or in my position as a tax pro I can say there is a long history of the IRS going to court over what counts as a legal signature or them "receiving" either a tax return or other correspondence with a hard deadline date on it. After watching the "hanging chads" debacle during the Florida recounts in 2000 can you imagine what would have happened if that election was all vote by mail? As long as an election isn't all that close, fine no problem but if it's razor thin it would be an unholy mess. Millions of people having to show up to prove that was in fact their signature on the ballot? Make no mistake, if the issue is a signature thousands of lawsuits have been about the question is this a legal signature or not on that 10 million dollar check or grandpa's will or a contract or whatever.

Read this article about voter verification and think about a recount like what happened in 2000. Also what about the idea of Voter ID? Lots of folks hate that idea for many reasons yet that is exactly what mail in ballots will boil down to in a close, contested recount.

And then one final point. Do we really want to turn our elections over to the POST OFFICE?? That model of bureaucratic efficiency?

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/verification-of-absentee-ballots.aspx

EDIT

I see we were writing at the same time Kuru. I agree 100% with everything you said about mail in voting. It's simple and easy and if they have to verify the occasional signature, fine no problem. The problems come with recounts. This is the process with recounts in most states. First they have a machine recount which is fairly quick. If the machine recount is too close it has to be a manual recount. Then, if that is too close then lawyers insist on verifying EVERY. SINGLE. BALLOT. because the numbers keep getting closer. Florida in 2000 came down to a few hundred votes out of millions. In your case you had to verify your ballot so multiply that by every voter in Washington State. Yes, this is a worst case scenario that will probably never happen. But it did happen. And, what is your opinion about Voter ID especially in minority communities all over the country?

And then what happens to the concept of voter anonymity? Nobody is supposed to know how you voted unless you are willing to give up that right. During the Florida recounts nobody knew who the voters were, ballots only have their preferences on them, no names so the arguments were about hanging chads and partial or very light marks. Now with mail in ballots everybody knows how everybody else voted and they have to prove who they are with cameras and lawyers hanging all over their ballots? It's easy to say state law has taken care of those issues. Maybe, maybe not until the lawyers take over.

Most of us here are intelligent, technical types. I actually love the concept of electronic voting using a smartphone app until I realize we all know tons of folks who hate and don't trust the internet, don't have a smart phone or a computer and hackers are everywhere. Hmmm, maybe not such a great idea.

Bob

Last edited by Jazzmammal; 04/26/20 06:12 PM.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
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To get back to COVID 19 issues, this is a very interesting article about Army researchers creating their own N95 equivalent masks out of readily available materials found at a Jo-Ann Store.

https://www.defenseone.com/technolo...asks-can-be-n95s/164865/?oref=d-mostread

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3040728 04/26/20 07:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
To get back to COVID 19 issues, this is a very interesting article about Army researchers creating their own N95 equivalent masks out of readily available materials found at a Jo-Ann Store.

https://www.defenseone.com/technolo...asks-can-be-n95s/164865/?oref=d-mostread

Bob

Using something that repels water is key. I look forward to the full results of their study.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3040938 04/28/20 02:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
Au contraire,Craig

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...ssing_in_last_four_elections_143033.html

Voting by mail has been a HUGE issue all over the country.

Unfortunately, the linked article includes no links to information from the Federal Election Assistance commission that would support the claim. The only link was to an organization that "compiled" data from the EAC. That organization claimed sources from the EAC, but when I went to the Public Interest Legal Foundation site, the piece referenced in Real Clear Politics also had no supporting links to the EAC data on which they supposedly based their conclusions. The only link they had was to the EAC's definition of what's considered an "unknown ballot," which it seems as a matter of course the EAC would need to define.

Instantly, my BS detector went off. So, after finding I couldn't get answers from the organization interpreting what another organization interpreted from sources that aren't defined, I figured I might as well go to the source, and spent some quality time on the EAC web site.

It's fascinating, actually. It's FILLED with white papers and concerns about all aspects of voting. For example, yes, ballots may not be delivered - if someone moves, if there's a data entry error, forest fires, any one of a number of reasons. For example, Oregon has 2-3% undelivered ballots. Shocking, right? But in the year when around 1.8 million ballots were cast (IIRC, although the stats are fairly consistent from year to year), approximately 30K people moved into Oregon, and 20K people left. Interestingly, that's 2.6% of the voters. And that's not taking into account people who moved within Oregon, and changed addresses. Frankly, it's the responsibility of voters to register to vote and notify of a change of address, not the responsibility of the state to track them down. If I move and don't notify the post office, then not getting mail forwarded doesn't mean the post office is incompetent, or there's an inherent flaw in using the mail.

I understand that publications and organizations have partisan reasons for cherry-picking stats to buttress the candidate or philosophy they want to support, but we're better than that. I don't speak for anyone else on these forums, but I want to find out the truth, and let the chips fall where they may.

I also looked up the credentials of the person who wrote the story. He has a definite political bias. That doesn't mean he's necessarily wrong. But, it means he sees the world through a particular filter, and communicates through that filter, If you want stats and facts, go to the source - the EAC, the Oregon Secretary of State, etc. who issued the actual stats he interpreted, based on the interpretation of another organization, who may or may not want to put a spin on them, and whose research certainly appeared superficial at best. The EAC itself will tell you, in no uncertain terms, there are problems. But they do so in an apolitical, Excel-spreadsheet kind of way, propose potential solutions, and describe the steps they are taking to try and remedy those problems.

Quote
Forget the missing ballots, suppression and all that. Just throw those ideas out. To me the biggest problem is legal. If an election is close enough to trigger a recount and it's all mail in ballots, what then? The only way to validate a mail in ballot is to verity the signature.

Consider the following...

There's no need to have a single system for voting - using only mail-in ballots, only electronic, only voting machines, only whatever. All that's needed is for each system to work properly. All systems are hackable, going back to the days of paper ballots. Our job isn't to throw up our hands and say nothing works, our job is to figure out how to make it work.

Voting is voluntary, and people register to vote. When doing so, they should be able to specify which format they prefer for voting. It would be no different from some people saying they want their bank statements on paper, while others want them online. But voters also have to do their part, and keep the registrar of voters informed of when they change addresses, move, change names due to marriage, etc.

Software companies have figured out how to dissociate people from data. Having worked with Cakewalk, I do know that their analytic data on usage truly did not identify users, so it is possible. Yet each user had a unique ID.

Regarding Florida, I lived there during the 2000 election. I have no doubt it was incompetent at best, dishonest at worst. I knew people personally who went to vote and were told they couldn't because of their "felony conviction." Yet they had none. It was like when I go to a hotel and they say "Sorry, there's no reservation for you, Mr. Greg Henderson." And, the Florida recount depended on judgement calls as to voter intention. I have reasons to doubt the assessments were correct when Pat Buchanan won the predominantly Jewish section of Palm Beach by a handy margin.

You can point to any way of voting and find problems. By and large, I tend to think the majority of the issues stem more from incompetence and stupidity than malevolence. Incompetence/stupidity are clearly renewable resources, and there's plenty of both.

Now, let me point out that what I've said may appear political. It is not. I am not advocating right, left, up, or down. What I AM advocating is that it's necessary to think for yourself, whether it's an article about voting, a gear review, or your auto mechanic saying your drive train needs to be replaced. Do your own research, because with rare exceptions, the articles you see in ALL parts of the political and even social spectrum are written by people who often don't do enough research to write intelligently on a subject, or decide to cherry-pick whatever supports a foregone conclusion, or take stats or quotes out of context. If people on the left think only people on the right do that, or people on the right think only people on the left do that...they need to get out more smile

The human need to bond with a tribe is strong. That can be a good thing. Right now, I think it is being taken to extremes, and not doing anyone any favors. Overall, people seem more interested in trying to justify what they think than verifying the truth of what they think, and are too trusting of what they're being told by other members of the tribe.

Last edited by Anderton; 04/28/20 02:58 AM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
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Even though this is WAY OT from the O*T, I think a lot about how people want to throw the baby out with the bathwater. IOW, they hear about problems with the system (voter fraud in this case) and they act like it's completely corrupt and are unwilling to do things like add mail-in voting or whatever. I don't deny that entirely new systems are sometimes needed, but often it just needs an adjustment. As Craig said in his excellent post, "Our job isn't to throw up our hands and say nothing works, our job is to figure out how to make it work."


*Original


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3040955 04/28/20 04:45 AM
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First, excellent post just above, thank you Craig!

Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
Au contraire,Craig

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...ssing_in_last_four_elections_143033.html

Voting by mail has been a HUGE issue all over the country.

Forget the missing ballots, suppression and all that. Just throw those ideas out. To me the biggest problem is legal. If an election is close enough to trigger a recount and it's all mail in ballots, what then? The only way to validate a mail in ballot is to verity the signature.
Bob

HUGE is HUGELY overstating a made-up "problem" as near as I can tell.
Perhaps you missed my post above where I speak of the system in WA, all voting is done by mail.
My signature was checked BEFORE my vote was validated. They saw a discrepency, contacted me and we straightened things out. THEN my vote was validated.
That IS how things are done here in WA. We've had no verifiable voter fraud, nor have we had a single candidate challenge any vote-by-mail election results.

Is it impossible to commit voter fraud? It never has been and never will be impossible. If one studies American history it becomes clear that it is much easier to prevent access to polling places as a means of preventing groups of people from voting than it is to change the outcome of an election that is done using the mail.

I searched the topic of voter fraud and will not link or quote any of several articles as they ALL exhibited significant political bias of one sort or another. As always, there is a human tendency to seek "facts" that verify and support beliefs rather than developing beliefs that are supported by facts. Cheers, Kuru


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3041061 04/28/20 09:03 PM
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I understand what you're saying but facts presented with a political bias are still facts. Also, WA is a state that heavily leans towards one party, little chance of a highly contested recount so of course no problems with verifying ballots until if or when a contested recount comes up. There are a lot of what sounds like fact to me in that RCP article but it would take a week to track it all down especially things like illegal ballot harvesting and were 28 million ballots really lost or is that just spin? Craig did a great job of trying to track some of those points down and I commend him for the effort. To me it was a waste of time to even mention the author was biased though. Of course he's biased so is every person writing about virtually any hot button issue. They're all biased to one side or the other, just look at surveys of journalists asking who they voted for or what party they belong to.

It's our job to filter biases out but that doesn't mean everything they wrote is wrong. And, don't keep reading things that are biased to one side only. Even if it's from "official sources" in a state government. Lots of them are political appointees so even if it's on a spreadsheet that looks all scientific, who put that together? Were they under orders form the Governor or someone to put it out one way or the other? Were there dissenting opinions about it? That's why I specifically read stuff that is considered highly biased on both sides. To me that NPR article is biased yet the facts are still correct. It's a matter of what they chose to use for the headline. If they wanted to spin it as a somewhat good news story the headline would say "No spike in COVID 19 cases after the Wisconsin election" which was the conclusion at the end and supported by a quote from an official. Instead the headline was "Milwaukee claims 7 cases" which puts a somewhat negative spin on it. Not terrible and not even all that political, it's just typical news going for the bad to generate more attention or to promote a narrative that it was a bad idea to hold an in person election. And, here's a update on the election:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...ronavirus-cases-possibly-exposed-through

A somewhat negative headline that is not factually wrong but later in the article it says this:

Since officials only have data on positive cases, without a comparison group of people who were not tested or tested negative, Goodsitt said “there is no way to know with certainty if any exposures at the polls that are reported are in fact attributable to COVID-19 illness.”

Overall this is a good article and it tells the story but again what headline should they have used? Who knows, it all depends on a readers individual biases towards this. To me, 40 cases out of 200,000 voters is a drop in the bucket considering we now know a good portion of those won't even have symptoms, some slight symptoms and a good chance that no one requires hospitalization. They're doing contact tracing and they will find some more cases but it doesn't look to me like 40 is going to balloon to a thousand or something. In other words it's an acceptable risk and in the big picture no big deal.

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3041068 04/28/20 09:25 PM
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Looking at The Hill website I found what to me is the best article I've read to date that basically supports everything I've been saying or writing or even thinking for over a month now. It's written by an MD and based on research from Stanford and other sources. People can still disagree but right now this is pretty much 100% of my feelings about it. Point #4 is especially important. I thought of that weeks ago and rarely hear a whisper about it but to me it's a big offset to the highly reported virus deaths. And, at age 74 I totally accept the fact that we (meaning the overall group of seniors) should not be holding back everyone else from getting their lives back together and getting this country going again. We had our day, I have no problem with having to take extra precautions for the next few years even and if it gets me, then it gets me. Anybody who reaches their mid 70's knows their time is limited anyway and I've never worried about it or what happens after for that matter. I'll find out soon enough.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthc...op-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3041090 04/28/20 10:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
I understand what you're saying but facts presented with a political bias are still facts.

Yes, but bias can use facts to deliberately deceive. For example, if I say "Voter fraud is clearly rampant. X number of ballots were not even delivered" or "Due to changes of address, X number of ballots were not delivered," in both cases X is the same number. But the conclusions presented from that fact are VERY different. Now, to justify either opinion, the onus is on proving voter fraud, or proving that the undelivered ballots were due to changes of address. When I investigated further, given the number of changes of address, and the number of undelivered ballots, it seemed most logical to me that there was a correlation. I would modify that opinion in a second if a postal worker said he or she looked up houses on the voter rolls to try to determine which homes were occupied by Democrats and which were occupied by Republicans, and threw away the ballots going to the homes of the party he or she didn't like. Then I would change my opinion to thinking there was fraud involved.

Quote
Craig did a great job of trying to track some of those points down and I commend him for the effort. To me it was a waste of time to even mention the author was biased though. Of course he's biased so is every person writing about virtually any hot button issue. They're all biased to one side or the other, just look at surveys of journalists asking who they voted for or what party they belong to.

You missed the point of what I wrote, which is both left and right people are biased, you can't trust anyone, and to think for yourself. After I tracked down the facts, I became convinced that only a very, very small percentage of issues with mail balloting likely involved fraud. Yet that is the way some people want to cast it, to serve a particular agenda. I don't think the facts bear that out. Attributing the lost ballots to fraud is an opinion. My thinking not much is fraud is also an opinion, but I can provide links to back that up smile

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It's our job to filter biases out but that doesn't mean everything they wrote is wrong.

Again, I specifically said:

I also looked up the credentials of the person who wrote the story. He has a definite political bias. That doesn't mean he's necessarily wrong. But, it means he sees the world through a particular filter, and communicates through that filter.

Or in simpler terms...always consider the source. It's important to question whether your believing facts, or a belief system's interpretation of facts.

Quote
And, don't keep reading things that are biased to one side only.

Obviously, I don't. I read the opinions you cited from the right, and even sought out additional opinions from the more extreme right, and center (e.g., the Hill) you didn't reference. I didn't read any opinions from the left. I simply went to sites that contain actual statistics and drew my own conclusions, which is what I was recommending that everyone do.

Quote
Even if it's from "official sources" in a state government. Lots of them are political appointees so even if it's on a spreadsheet that looks all scientific, who put that together? Were they under orders form the Governor or someone to put it out one way or the other?

All we have to work with is the stats presented by people whose job it is to collect stats. Many of them serve under administrations of different parties. If the Governor said "hey, I know you found there were 200,000 missing ballots, but could you say 400,000 instead?," I can only hope at least one employee would have the integrity to blow the whistle.

But asking those questions invalidates your opinion, because if the articles you cited drew their conclusions from stats that you don't trust, you inherently cannot trust the conclusions reached in those articles. So, it makes no sense to link to them, if you believe the stats upon which they based their conclusions can't be trusted.

Last edited by Anderton; 04/28/20 10:48 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3041093 04/28/20 11:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
Looking at The Hill website I found what to me is the best article I've read to date that basically supports everything I've been saying or writing or even thinking for over a month now.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthc...op-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

I find The Hill quite credible. First, they're good about correcting factual errors; when they report a lie as fact, they correct it. Second, right-wing people think it's biased toward the left, and left-wing people think it's biased toward the right. To me, that's the sign of a lack of bias colliding with peoples' filters and belief systems.

That said, hindsight is gorgeous. "Draconian" measures were undertaken when no one had a clue about what the virus would do. It had never existed before, and there was no precedent. Not erring on the side of caution would have been disastrous had the worst-case scenarios played out.

Also, in my opinion, ever since Hurricane Katrina disasters have been co-opted for political purposes. By now, it's a familiar playbook: "You should have anticipated what was coming." Well, yes, but I don't see anyone hardening the grid against X-Class solar storms. When one hits, we have no electricity for six months, all the reactors melt down, and millions of people die, whoever will be president at the time will be told "Hey, there was a guy on an internet forum for effing musicians who knew this would happen! Why didn't you?"

Over the last four months, we've learned a lot more about how the virus works. It's not true that young people are immune; they're just much less susceptible. It's not true that all old people die; they're just a lot more susceptible. And so on. There are course corrections being made every day, based on improved understanding of the virus.

What needs to happen now is a rational assessment of risk, but it HAS to be coupled with a sincere attempt to minimize those risks. Take the meat-packing plants, which have now become corona virus hotspots. True, closing them down will impact the food chain. But you can't open them up without testing the employees to see who is positive. Now it becomes a practical matter, which is finding enough tests to do this kind of thing...and we're kind of back to square one, because again, we don't know what we're dealing with, and we won't unless we have reliable tests. And we don't even know for sure if having the virus makes you immune. So if a zillion more people become affected, based just on the numbers, it won't only be old people in nursing homes who die.

I'm also not so sure that the thing won't have a few more surprises in store for us that we can't anticipate...we can only do the best we can, but "the best" requires keeping politics out of it, listening to a broad array of scientific opinions, and being flexible enough to pivot when things change instead of hardening positions based on obsolete data.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3041120 04/29/20 12:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
Voting by mail has been a HUGE issue all over the country.
Forget the missing ballots, suppression and all that. Just throw those ideas out. To me the biggest problem is legal. If an election is close enough to trigger a recount and it's all mail in ballots, what then? The only way to validate a mail in ballot is to verity the signature.
Bob

Originally Posted by KuruPrionz
As always, there is a human tendency to seek "facts" that verify and support beliefs rather than developing beliefs that are supported by facts. Cheers, Kuru

Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
There are a lot of what sounds like fact to me in that RCP article but it would take a week to track it all down especially things like illegal ballot harvesting and were 28 million ballots really lost or is that just spin?

They're doing contact tracing and they will find some more cases but it doesn't look to me like 40 is going to balloon to a thousand or something. In other words it's an acceptable risk and in the big picture no big deal.

Bob

Yeah, no reason to fact check.
Me either, facts are just pesky annoyances.

I wish you and yours the best - be well, be safe!
I shall now remove myself from this conversation. Cheers, Kuru


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3041158 04/29/20 04:20 AM
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Still, the question remains...now what? As usual, it's much easier to get into a difficult situation than get out of it.

For example, how is the concert industry going to come back? Will anyone go on a music cruise again? Will live sound engineers have to start delivering food for GrubHub? All I can think is that anyone who thinks they have the answer, doesn't have the answer smile

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3041183 04/29/20 11:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
Also, WA is a state that heavily leans towards one party, little chance of a highly contested recount so of course no problems with verifying ballots until if or when a contested recount comes up.
Bob, Washington state is just one example. Utah leans towards the other party and "vote at home" seems to be working quite well there. Arizona and Montana are going that way as well, as is California. I doubt that all these places that are going this route are ignoring the issues of potential recounts. Even if they are, all it will take is one for them to have problems and they'll all start fixing the issues.

Also note that you don't have to mail in your ballot, you can drop it off at a secure site.

Originally Posted by Anderton
Still, the question remains...now what? As usual, it's much easier to get into a difficult situation than get out of it.

For example, how is the concert industry going to come back? Will anyone go on a music cruise again? Will live sound engineers have to start delivering food for GrubHub? All I can think is that anyone who thinks they have the answer, doesn't have the answer smile
If the Oxford vaccine actually shows up this fall (NY Times link), we could get back to "normal" pretty soon. That being said, I personally hope that some lessons about lifestyle are truly learned from this. We've learned more people can work from home, and that we can reduce traffic, air pollution, water pollution, consume smarter, and more. To me, going back to the way things were would be a waste of this opportunity. JMO.

More specifically, here are two more links from NY Times about how live culture may be changing.

Quote
Witness the future of live culture
The arts world is finding inventive ways to welcome patrons again. Gallery openings have resumed in Seoul, South Korea, with attendants recording the name, address and phone number of visitors to trace potential exposure to the coronavirus.

In the U.S., the Barrington Stage Company in Massachusetts said it plans to hold live theatrical performances this summer — mostly one-person shows, with no intermission. It will remove 70 percent of the seats inside the theater, so each audience member will have plenty of space.

The one thing I keep thinking about with distancing in theaters is how do you accommodate groups? If they take out (or make unavailable) seats in any kind of theater so that each seat has six feet around it, that means I don't get to sit with my wife. Or in a movie theater, parents need to sit with their kids. The best idea I can come up with is an algorithm for theaters where you buy your seats in advance. Once someone selects seats, the computer can mark out the right number of seats around that person or group as unavailable, making a six foot distance. That can continue until the theater is "full." Other theaters could do this by hand.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3041243 04/29/20 05:10 PM
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Piano Weekly AKA Greg Spero has been doing a daily early morning stream since the virus stay at home and starting to do more interviews and not just playing piano. Todays was interesting he had a handful of publicists talking about how some of their clients are dealing and the monetization model. Also a new website trying to help musicians promote and stream and make a couple bucks doing it.

So if interested here's the link:


Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
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Almost did it again. This is my favorite musicians forum and I seriously respect and admire everybody here especially you Craig. I do have a weakness for certain other discussions and I'm stopping right here. Kuru, you're a good guy lets talk about music. I really am all about the music when I'm not working on taxes so with that said, back to "What's next..."

While I'm hopeful as I said earlier that this pandemic will work itself out sooner rather than later unfortunately I don't think that applies to us as gigging musicians. All I can say is the same thing that has been repeated for weeks now, until there are good treatments that make us feel safe enough to share a tight stage much less a mic with other people it's simply not happening any time soon. And that's just from my personal POV. I know there are plenty of members on this forum who have their own health issues or have close family members who do and they're not taking any chances. I can see some bands getting some gigs maybe by July but some individual players may pass on the gig so there will be subs and they may lose their seat permanently. That could be me because I'm the oldest person and I may pass on some gigs too. It's one thing to say I feel safe enough to go shopping as long as I take the common sense precautions but it's another to be setting up gear and performing right on top of three other guys crammed in a corner. As for commercial establishments I see big problems there too. Restricted seating? Dancing? Stop live music altogether? I have two different annual house parties and one is a very crowded living room and the other on a crowded pool deck. I doubt those are happening but have not heard from them yet and then maybe it's me who says no, it just depends. It's gonna be a hard year for sure.

I know one thing, I'm not playing with a mask so I've got to feel safe enough to play without one and that's assuming whoever is hiring me or us doesn't require it. If they want the band to wear masks, forget it.

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
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There will likely be ways to have concerts under less-than-optimal circumstances, but I think DJs are really going to be in trouble. So much of that experience is based entirely on the DJ being able to interact with the crowd and form a feedback loop where the reaction determines the music, which creates a reaction, which determines more about the music's direction, etc. DJ sets aren't going to happen if people need to stand six feet apart, or sit in chairs.

The timing couldn't be worse. So many DJ sets are positive and all about having fun, and we sure could use some of that right now. I'm not sure it would translate into a streaming experience to the home..

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
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This discussion has me motivated to learn more about statistics (my stats class in college being a long time ago). I hate to be manipulated by cherry picked stats and I hate to see others manipulated by them, but the cherry pickers take advantage of the fact that most will, if it satisfies their bias, not question what they read- after all, it's on the internet. The only blowback seems to come when what people are being fed doesn't jibe with what they are experiencing. Having said that, I am familiar with the RCP site and do not feel the article in question is a good representation of RCP, which skews right overall but makes a point of including opposing arguments.

Hope it is not taboo to ask this, but it has been alluded to: Do the elderly and the vulnerable, who's protection is largely a justification for the lockdown, have a say in all this? How much economic hardship- which as pointed out by the Hill article, itself costs lives- would they themselves wish to impose on the entire populace, for the sake of their (the elderly's) protection? I'm guessing that collectively, they would not want it to be so. Maybe a poll of MPN members, many of whom are seniors (although better educated ones) would reflect that.

I know that the problem with that is the ones who suffer from dementia and the loss of their reasoning facilities. The latter symptom, IMO, is just as likely caused by extreme political partisanship.

Last edited by pinkfloydcramer; 04/29/20 06:45 PM. Reason: punctuation
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
pinkfloydcramer #3041279 04/29/20 10:11 PM
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Originally Posted by pinkfloydcramer
I know that the problem with that is the ones who suffer from dementia and the loss of their reasoning facilities. The latter symptom, IMO, is just as likely caused by extreme political partisanship.

You mean like S....ARGGGH! No, no, no...

Bob

Your point about how many seniors want to seriously hold up the country on their behalf is a good one.


Hammond SK1, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3041281 04/29/20 10:13 PM
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I'm concerned about our fall and winter season. The majority of our yearly income comes between Halloween and Easter. 6 months = >80% of our yearly gross.

In the 12 years of playing at a small, outdoor restaurant on a weekday during lunchtime, they have been known to take in well over $3,000 in 3 hours. Tha'ts why we are the only band still here from the ones we started with 12 years ago.

[Linked Image from nortonmusic.com]

If these people have to sit 6 feet apart, there is no way the house will be able to afford us.

This little restaurant is the original guard house for the US Navy SEALS which were formed here in Ft. Pierce FL during WWII. It's historic, therefore not modernized but still looking like the historic era.

As we do this on a weekday, we get a retired audience. Sometimes the crowds are so big, it spills out into the parking lot. Our 'regulars' know to bring lawn chairs if they want to be assured of getting a seat.

We also play a RV park where 600 RVs of French Canadians winter and another 300 US and English Canadians make camp for the winter. We play outdoors on a porch that at times is so crowded that people are shoulder to shoulder. Others come in their golf carts and crowd the parking lot. We do this twice a month.There is no way these folks are going to be able to be 6' apart.

The rest of our gigs are yacht clubs, country clubs, and retirement communities. It's a big audience here in South Florida and I moved to this genre when I turned 40.

What does that mean to me?

I need to adapt to survive.

Since 1992 I've had a small, part-time income writing style e-disks and fake e-disks for an auto-accompaniment app called Band-in-a-Box http://www.nortonmusic.com -- I've done this in my spare time, mostly working on new products in the slow months of August and September. It looks like my part-time, spare time gig is going to become a full-time gig. Not as satisfying as gigging, but survival goes to the adaptable.

In isolation, Leilani and I have been putting 16 hours per day into making new products. Hopefully we'll have a release in a month or two.

Since I do my own websites, it also means HTML code, shopping cart code, demo files, and so forth.

I'm also thinking about a couple of other things, perhaps a UTube channel.

But gigging is my bliss. I don't know how the gig scene is going to re-emerge, but when and if it does, I'll do my best to adapt to that as well.

Insights and incites by Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
pinkfloydcramer #3041293 04/29/20 11:22 PM
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Originally Posted by pinkfloydcramer
How much economic hardship - which as pointed out by the Hill article, itself costs lives - would they themselves wish to impose on the entire populace, for the sake of their (the elderly's) protection? I'm guessing that collectively, they would not want it to be so.

Two big problems with this.

Younger people might not want to lose their parents, and they should have a say in this too. Furthermore, a lot of the economy is being driven by people over 60. Look at average ages of CEOs, presidents, political figures, entertainment industry moguls, you name it. The country is not being run by kids; they contribute a not insignificant, but nonetheless finite, amount to the economy and our shared knowledgebase.

But the MUCH more important aspect is that the choice that's presented - preserve the economy and die, or be selfish and ruin things for everybody - reflexively assumes there aren't much better choices. There are. As more gets known about the virus, it will become ever-easier to protect the most vulnerable, while allowing the economy to continue at a normal pace for those who are not in danger, or statistically speaking, in much less danger.

We already do that with diseases that have a precedent. We know what to do with them. The current problem is that the world was caught off-guard by something that had never existed before, and no one knows what to do yet. However, we are learning.

It's kind of like asking me if I'd rather eat dirt or rocks for dinner, because we're standing outside in a place that has dirt and rocks. I'd point out that by simply walking a mile, we can go to a supermarket, and choose something way more appealing. Those who think that the only options are for older people to die, or they'll ruin it for everyone else, shows, in my opinion, either a failure of imagination, a prioritization of expediency over human life (which someone who's pro-life cannot adopt without being untrue to their beliefs), or an assumption that humans aren't smart enough to figure out a better solution. However, to forestall a continuation of this discussion where people disagree with me and feel the need to comment, it's entirely possible that I'm at best misguided, and as worst stupid, to think that humans have imagination, pro-lifers are intellectually consistent, and science/research will come up with answers (possibly sooner rather than later).

Yes, some people will suffer financially. I've lost gigs because of this, and had to pivot. But that happens in recessions, wars, and depressions anyway. It's not like it's never happened before, and if there's the will, there are enough resources right now to minimize that suffering.

Humans...can't live 'em, can't live without 'em.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3041294 04/29/20 11:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
What does that mean to me?

I need to adapt to survive.

Or as David Byrne said, "same as it ever was." smile

Case in point: check out the MPN Shop! If companies aren't advertising, well, then we have to figure out some other way to pay for the site's servers and maintenance. If this doesn't work, we'll figure out something else. We want to keep the site going.

Last edited by Anderton; 04/29/20 11:27 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3041306 04/30/20 01:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Originally Posted by pinkfloydcramer
How much economic hardship - which as pointed out by the Hill article, itself costs lives - would they themselves wish to impose on the entire populace, for the sake of their (the elderly's) protection? I'm guessing that collectively, they would not want it to be so.

Two big problems with this.

Younger people might not want to lose their parents, and they should have a say in this too. Furthermore, a lot of the economy is being driven by people over 60. Look at average ages of CEOs, presidents, political figures, entertainment industry moguls, you name it. The country is not being run by kids; they contribute a not insignificant, but nonetheless finite, amount to the economy and our shared knowledgebase.

But the MUCH more important aspect is that the choice that's presented - preserve the economy and die, or be selfish and ruin things for everybody - reflexively assumes there aren't much better choices. There are. As more gets known about the virus, it will become ever-easier to protect the most vulnerable, while allowing the economy to continue at a normal pace for those who are not in danger, or statistically speaking, in much less danger.

We already do that with diseases that have a precedent. We know what to do with them. The current problem is that the world was caught off-guard by something that had never existed before, and no one knows what to do yet. However, we are learning.

It's kind of like asking me if I'd rather eat dirt or rocks for dinner, because we're standing outside in a place that has dirt and rocks. I'd point out that by simply walking a mile, we can go to a supermarket, and choose something way more appealing. Those who think that the only options are for older people to die, or they'll ruin it for everyone else, shows, in my opinion, either a failure of imagination, a prioritization of expediency over human life (which someone who's pro-life cannot adopt without being untrue to their beliefs), or an assumption that humans aren't smart enough to figure out a better solution. However, to forestall a continuation of this discussion where people disagree with me and feel the need to comment, it's entirely possible that I'm at best misguided, and as worst stupid, to think that humans have imagination, pro-lifers are intellectually consistent, and science/research will come up with answers (possibly sooner rather than later).

Yes, some people will suffer financially. I've lost gigs because of this, and had to pivot. But that happens in recessions, wars, and depressions anyway. It's not like it's never happened before, and if there's the will, there are enough resources right now to minimize that suffering.

Humans...can't live 'em, can't live without 'em.

1) I am one of those with an elderly parent that I do not want to lose, so understand that concern. If I didn't value her, I would not have taken her into my home 8 years ago. And I know most people feel the same way, even if they do not have the option of caring for their parent at home (she actually does need to be in a group home, but I'm glad I have not yet put her in one, for obvious reasons).

2) Framing the damage to the economy as "some people will suffer financially", IMO, drastically understates it. Perhaps I have been oversold on the damage a prolonged shutdown would do. But it's not a case of people with unimaginable wealth using their influence to force a reopening just so they can make their already unimaginable wealth even more unimaginable. It's a case of everyday people needing to feed their families and pay bills, who are skeptical that the government can or will keep them afloat forever. Those people should have the freedom to make their own choices, IMO. My own personal choice, with no children, is to not be around groups where I could be exposed and risk giving it to my parent.

3) There is a vast amount not yet known about the disease, but some things ARE becoming clearer. The much lower estimated mortality rate is one. Should we not alter our response at all, with that knowledge? Or is it not enough to go on? Also, it has been known for some time one sure way to protect the vulnerable- by isolating them from anyone who could possibly expose them to it. Should that be prescribed for everybody?

4) I fully understand that with each passing month, additional aspects of how to prevent contagion will become known, that will alter how we deal with the disease. So more time would be indeed be preferred. My business degree from a cow college doesn't make me an economic expert, so I don't know how much time we have before the economy is destroyed. I'm not sure the experts do either, but they do know more than I do.

5) You seem to jump to the conclusion that I, or the writer of the Hill article, stand in judgment of the original shutdown, when virtually nothing was was known about the virus. I don't and I didn't get that out of the article, either. I think it was entirely reasonable to take those actions, at the time. After all, WHO was citing a 2+% mortality rate and models were forecasting millions of deaths in the US.

6) Human nature is such as that people can only tolerate the isolation for so long, absent martial law.

7) One thing I have noticed is that the goalposts seem to be constantly moving. The original reason for the shutdown was "flattening the curve" to avoid overrun of our medical facilities, and avoid the tragic situation such as happened with Italy, where Doctors had to do triage and turn elderly victims away. As far as I know, that has been accomplished (I could be wrong). So now, people are citing other rationales (which have escaped me for now, sorry).

8) RE the US has the resources to support people's standard of living during many more months of resources, that's true- but how will that be accomplished, short of forcible confiscation? (maybe we will know, after November). I feel that the mega-rich should voluntarily give their wealth to the cause. If I were one of the mega-rich, that's what I would do. But if they were like me, they wouldn't be mega-rich.

You know way more about science and technology than I do so it is heartening to see your optimism. Maybe there is more of that than I realized out there. Thanks for the response.

Last edited by pinkfloydcramer; 04/30/20 01:12 AM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3041317 04/30/20 03:13 AM
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So today my wife booked a new gig for June 5th, an outdoor show at a popular place outside of our town a short ways. We still have a booking for May 22nd that is not officially canceled and we decided that if the gig is a go we'll do it for free as a show of support for a business that's suffered badly like so many.

Restrictions in our state begin loosening up May 1st in 77 of our 99 counties. In the rest (ours included) restrictions have been extended until May 15th. Our state stopped short of a "shelter in place" order and I've continued working all along as an "essential" employee at an "essential" job as part of Mission Systems at a company with huge government/military contracts. My wife has continued her medical practice from home and hasn't been to her office at the university for weeks.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3041320 04/30/20 03:42 AM
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I wonder why it's so difficult for people outside these forums to engage in constructive discussions smile Maybe we can infect them!

I'll keep it short.

2) It may be a drastic understatement, and yes, it's the poor-to-middle-class that gets hits the hardest (they do in any recession). But I see a lot of companies desperate to hire people right now. The problem is that not everyone is comfortable dealing with the public. In that case, it's the virus that's making people suffer, not whether the economy is open or closed. Even if it were all open tomorrow, I don't know anyone who's going to a packed theater any time soon.

3+4) What you're saying is the point I was trying to make: "As more gets known about the virus, it will become ever-easier to protect the most vulnerable, while allowing the economy to continue at a normal pace for those who are not in danger, or statistically speaking, in much less danger." We don't have all the answers yet, but if we can hold on a little longer, I think we will. Economies can collapse, but no one knows how long it takes, how deep it will be, etc. Your statement "I don't know how much time we have before the economy is destroyed" is farmore credible than what I hear from the "experts" smile

5) No, I think pretty much everyone (aside from those who dismissed that there was going to be any problem) agrees it was right to err on the side of caution initially. After all, we were dealing with something unknown and potentially very dangerous.

6) It's different in different places. Here in Tennessee, you're not forced not to go into the world, so people choose whether to be isolated. It's different when people choose not to go into the world, and most here are, because they don't want to take a chance, compared to being forced to do something. There are a lot of people outside, walking dogs, going to parks, etc. but they do practice social distancing - they're not hanging out in groups, churches do online services, etc. It's an acceptable compromise for most people.

7) The problem with "flattening the curve" is people thought that meant the virus would go away. You are correct that it was to avoid an overrun of medical facilities, people are just going to get sick on a more relaxed schedule. The problem right now is the USA is a big country, without a uniform strategy for solving the problem. So even though things are getting better on the east coast, they're getting worse in the midwest. It's very much like a forest fire. The main areas burn out, but then a spark gets carried by the wind, and flames start happening somewhere else. It could take a long time before the corona virus burns out. Or maybe not. No one knows. At the moment, based on what we know, the "re-opening" thing is a gamble. Like any gamble, you don't know the outcome.

But it's also important to remember that even if people don't die, you don't want them to get sick. Even the regular flu causes a big hit in productivity, and people who survive can still get very sick from COVID-19 (e.g., permanent lung damage). Even pneumonia can cause lung damage that can't be repaired.

8) I truly think by and large, people are generally good. The MIDI Manufacturers Association is about to start the "May Is MIDI Month" celebration, which has traditionally been used for fundraising to keep the free MIDI Association running, create educational materials, and assist schools. However, this year all the proceeds are going to COVID-19 relief through the Grammy Foundation's MusiCares charity. Other organizations are thinking similarly. The founder of Twitter is giving away a lot of money, Gates is contributing to creating a vaccine, etc. Churches around here are offering food. You're taking care of your mom. Some people think we're all in this together, and acting accordingly. I think there are enough of us...we'll see.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3041342 04/30/20 10:32 AM
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The "new normal" will not be masks and distancing, it will be acceptance of 1.5% of the population getting seriously sick. We don't wear masks because of the 1918 Spanish flu, we moved on. People die of all kinds of things and we move on. I predict by the end of NEXT summer we'll be completely back to normal. Completely.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3041357 04/30/20 01:49 PM
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How about extensive testing and tracking?

Would the cost of millions of testing kits be worse than the cost of a recession/depression? I don't know how much a test kit would cost if mass produced.

Would it be less than the cost of treating a second wave of cases to our health care systems and insurance companies?

Since we know there are asymptomatic people out there, sending everyone out to work without knowing if they are positive or not seems to be a recipe for disaster. Remember the lesson of Typhoid Mary and learn from that.

So how much would it cost to repeatedly test everyone and if necessary quarantine those testing positive?

To tell the truth, I don't know if this is practical or not, but sounds more constructive than giving millions of dollars to business like the LA Lakers, Ruth Chris Steakhouses, Trump hotels, Big Oil, and so forth.

I read that New Zealand, with an admittedly much smaller population (and also with fewer resources) has effectively stopped the virus with extensive testing and tracking. The Prime Minister said that by keeping their methods up, any new cases that might pop up will be handled quickly and the victim and close contacts will be isolated, tested, and/or treated.

I would like to see the US, one of the richest countries in the world at least make a study of this a priority and if practical, implement that instead of give-aways to big business.

I know putting people to work creating test kits sounds like an FDR/Democratic type work project, but the results of those projects brought us out of the great depression.

I'd love to go back to work if it didn't mean playing Russian Roulette.

Insights and incites by Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<