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IMO if the feds can make heroin illegal, they can pass an emergency temporary mask mandate. Of course this being the USA and the anti-mask has become political I don't think it is enforceable.

But I'm not a government scholar so I could be wrong about that.

Desperate times require drastic actions. The USA has 4% of the world's population and over 20% of the COVID cases. We need some drastic action. The president-elect has assembled a panel of contagious disease experts to point the way. Their wisdom and experience should give us better direction.

Hopefully these two new vaccines are the light at the end of the tunnel. Pfizer and Moderna look good and Oxford treats with a different method and that looks hopeful as well.

I'm hoping for some return to normalcy by the 2021-2022 gigging season.

Notes


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I wear a mask anytime it makes sense. If there is no one within 100' of me outdoors, doesn't make sense. First, NO President has the authority to issue such a national mandate. Even Governors of states are limited in what they can do by the US Constitution and by State Constitutions (in spite of many who have gone over their authority, knowing that they have control of state courts and aren't being challenged). I have COPD, and am quite sensitive to my health.

AKAIK, there is one way that a President could obtain that much authority, which is to declare martial law. However that can't be declared without good reason, or the court would almost immediately overturn it.

If someone without a mask comes close, I move away. If they insist on being too close, I will warn them ONCE that NC is a Concealed Carry state, I have a permit, and I will consider it a threat to my life if they continue. I will operate within NC law in the use of force.

However, it has been well shown around the world that total lockdowns for protracted periods cause at least as many problems as the disease. Think of it --- If the economy tanks badly enough, and folks can't pay their mortgage long enough, eviction will occur. I'd rather take my chances with less stringent "executive orders" than live on the streets - that's almost a sure way to wind up with the disease.

Also, in the parts of the world where I live, there are people already talking about the possibility of a second Civil War. If people are pushed too far, even people without a propensity for violence can be pushed into armed revolution - and the prevailing thought is that must happen before the government takes all the guns. I don't want to see that happen (and don't think rational folk want it to happen), but I view it as a possibility. Also, if some of these violent so-called protesters start their terror in the parts of the US where people can legally be armed, it isn't going to end well for them.

With the near release of vaccines that work well, ALL excuse for lockdowns will go away.


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As I've said...there are no good solutions. So, people are left trying to figure out which is better - the horrifying solution, or the terrifying one. And also, figuring out which is which smile

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How can an intelligent person thing the government is going to take our guns?

To repeal an amendment it will take 2/3 of the house, 2/3 of the senate, the president, plus 2/3 of the states legislatures. That isn't going to happen.

I know these are tough times, but being divided is not going to solve anything, it'll only make things worse. I know certain media outlets promote the division with fear, anger, and adolescent name calling of people on 'the other side'. But remember "A house divided against itself cannot stand." And as far as the oligarchy is concerned, "A house divided is easier to rule and exploit."

Cooperation, not division is the way out of this.

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Sorry Craig - (in my best Hollywood faux-Hispanic accent) I didn't see no stinking image *

* No offense meant, I like our Latin American neighbors, and they make some great music too.

---------

I'm very interested in the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. It seems the mRNA vaccine could be a game changer if it works as hoped. If I understand this correctly, you can get a vaccine without having a chance of getting the disease.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
Sorry Craig - (in my best Hollywood faux-Hispanic accent) I didn't see no stinking image

What browser are you using? It shows up here on Chrome and Edge.

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Originally Posted by Anderton
Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
Sorry Craig - (in my best Hollywood faux-Hispanic accent) I didn't see no stinking image

What browser are you using? It shows up here on Chrome and Edge.
Firefox

IMO Chorme and Edge are both voluntary spyware grin

Notes


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On the original topic, Shows back on at local [Houston] live music venues.

I have been on the email list for Heights Theater for a long time. It's a great venue and I'm sure they're doing their best, but I don't have plans to go to any shows yet, and can't say when I will. I hope these places don't get anyone sick.


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Originally Posted by Joe Muscara
On the original topic, Shows back on at local [Houston] live music venues.

I have been on the email list for Heights Theater for a long time. It's a great venue and I'm sure they're doing their best, but I don't have plans to go to any shows yet, and can't say when I will. I hope these places don't get anyone sick.


RIP Jimmy Weaver


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Armed revolution? Over following simple public health protocols??

The situation is not binary (again) in that it's following health protocols and tanking the economy, or ditching health protocols and saving the economy.

There's only one enemy here, and it's the virus. You get rid of the virus, you save the economy. You don't get rid of the virus, you ruin the economy (and schools, and families, and children's futures, and a big chunk of the American Dream.)

The economy will boom like a star gone nova when the virus is defeated. The virus could be defeated by everyone coming together and following health protocols. Well, that's not going to happen.....science, it looks like, is going to save our idiotic butts. In spite of our best attempts to ruin everything for what exactly??

Oh yeah, so no one can make you wipe your nose or wash your hands or prohibit you from drinking out of the pig trough. All symbols of glorious freedom. Your survivors can proudly display your Darwin award on the shelf.

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The nation divided is easier for the oligarchs to control. It's the tool the oligarchy, kings, tzars, dictators, banana republic leaders, and other rulers have know for millennia.

If they can make the right see the left as the enemy instead of the opposition and the left see the right as the enemy instead of the opposition, they are free to keep us under control while they reap all the profits and only share enough for us to exist on. They call us wage slaves.

If we don't get together as one nation instead of a couple of major factions and scores of minor (by comparison) factions, fighting among ourselves we will be exploited by the multi-national oligarchs who have no loyalty to any country, only to their vast riches. The robber barons have returned, and as long as we are fighting among ourselves, we will never recognize that.

So all the little things like mask/no-mask, vaccine/no-vaccine, climate chante/no-climate change, ACA/no-ACA, unions/no-unions, and so on are just ways of not seeing the whole picture.

That's my rant for today.

Notes


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Originally Posted by Doerfler
Originally Posted by Joe Muscara
On the original topic, Shows back on at local [Houston] live music venues.

I have been on the email list for Heights Theater for a long time. It's a great venue and I'm sure they're doing their best, but I don't have plans to go to any shows yet, and can't say when I will. I hope these places don't get anyone sick.


RIP Jimmy Weaver
QFT.

Dave, you may have heard of one of the bands that's playing at Heights Theater, The Band of Heathens. I know they opened for TTB a few years ago. They did an album release last month where before they all got together they got tested. Since each one had been isolated with their own family, it was pretty safe I guess. I'm sure they'll do the same for their shows. Since these places are not clubs, they probably can keep isolated from the audience except for the air circulation in the building.

My impression of those gigs Jimmy did were that they were wide open, people were drinking and mingling, etc. These two venues aren't like that from what I understand. Still, I won't be going because I'm avoiding being inside with anyone besides my wife.


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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
If they can make the right see the left as the enemy instead of the opposition and the left see the right as the enemy instead of the opposition, they are free to keep us under control while they reap all the profits and only share enough for us to exist on. They call us wage slaves.

Please cool it with the politics, whether we agree or not doesn't matter...we need to know what's going on with COVID-19 and our livelihoods, and how to accomplish our desired result.

I highly recommend that political comments be sent to your representatives. Keep your comments short, to the point, free of buzzwords, and authoritative. FWIW I wrote both my Senators with what I thought was a pretty compelling and rational opinion smile The next day, one of them made a statement that pretty much echoed what I wrote. A day later, the other one did. I'm not saying it was cause and effect...but I'm not saying it wasn't, either.

Rants in forums won't change minds or effect change. As long as this is a nation of laws and the people in Congress don't want to lose their jobs, we have direct ways to influence the system.

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Sorry, I didn't think urging both sides of the 'aisle' on as opposition instead of enemy in COVID related issues was political. I thought mutual respect, understanding, and compromise might help.


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I'm all for compromise and understanding, but the only way that's going to happen is by the people themselves reaching out and attempting to create a better future, rather than blaming those who "control" us. And do they really, or do we just let them? We can run for office, vote, work on campaigns, write representatives, and hold politicians accountable. As to corporations, we can vote with our dollars (and it's clear you do that - more people should).

What we need is more citizen involvement in our government (especially local government, which is what really matters) but that's political, and a separate issue from how we're going to deal with the corona virus in our day-to-day lives. This isn't to diminish the importance of political issues, but there are plenty of outlets to discuss those topics, and only a few where musicians can get together and talk about our musical lives in a civilized way.

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Originally Posted by Joe Muscara
It's a funny thing, I haven't seen a single runner around here wearing a mask.

Therefore, masks aren't needed. facepalm

Ironically, I have seen many runners wearing masks, and magically they don't seem to have a problem with it. BECAUSE THERE ISN'T ONE.


Quote
As many as I have seen since this started, the odds that they're all inconsiderate or anti-mask seems pretty low.


You're hung up on wanting to make a point based on a fallacy. I did not write "all runners are anti-mask" or "everyone I see at the park are anti-mask". If you want to continue that knock yourself out.

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No, we're all outdoors and most of us do a good job keeping our distance.

Behold, the Speaker for All Runners!

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Granted, I haven't gone to the big parks where I've heard that it has been quite crowded at times

......... facepalm

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, and I go very early both for the cooler temps and the lighter crowds. I keep my distance. So do they.

Except at the park I was referring to, IT'S IN THE SOUTH EAST WHERE IT'S VERY WARM, THERE WERE CROWDS, NO MASKS AND THEY WERE NOT KEEPING THEIR DISTANCE.

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I also just did a search about running with a mask, and every article I saw said you can do it, but it's more difficult.

BS. Show me a study, not an opinion, that it's "more difficult".

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As I said, I bring a neck gaiter when I think there's a chance I might have a crowd to deal with, but I haven't actually needed it yet.

Gaiters are not effective, and may make it worse by making droplets smaller and more easily transmissible.

The neck gaiter has a larger transmission (110%; see Fig. 3A) than the control trial.


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Do you know how many of them conscientiously wear a mask in all other cases they should be wearing one?

You're making excuses for people engaged in reckless behavior. "He was driving his car on the sidewalk in the crowed shopping district, but otherwise he is a "safe driver".



Quote
If you told those people they were anti-mask because they didn't wear one at the park all you probably would do would be to make them mad at you. If instead you said, "hey, when it's crowded like it is here, it's a good idea to mask up as well because you can't keep a distance," they're much more likely to go, "oh yeah, you're probably right."

You don't live in the south east United States, do you? You are stating everything from YOUR perspective of what you think people are like where YOU are, as opposed to where *I* am - where people actively shout down people that wear masks in public. People walking around inside grocery stores and Walmart with no masks.

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Originally Posted by Mighty Motif Max
Originally Posted by Chip McDonald
Quote
I run all the time, I never wear a mask, though sometimes depending on where I'm running I have a gaiter that I can pull up if I need to. I keep my distance from other people as much as possible. Please don't assume that people who are exercising outdoors are anti-mask.


If you don't wear one when you're around people..... you are anti-mask by default.

but unless I run into a crowd of people, I don't use it.


.... I'm not going to assume English is your native language, so maybe you missed the part where I wrote "if you don't wear one when YOU'RE AROUND PEOPLE...."


Quote
IF I do run into a bunch of people, I will usually go off the trail a ways until they pass.


Again, *if someone decides not to wear a mask when they're around people* given we're in a pandemic and it prevents the spread of a deadly virus.... what is a good way of stating their preferences...?


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My point is, taking off a mask to exercise is in no way an indication of being anti-mask.

You made a straw man, that is not what I wrote.


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Oh, also...if you think only fit people exercise, you've just negated a lot of doctors and their advice for helping people regain a healthy lifestyle.

Another straw man. I didn't say that. On the other hand, it's ridiculous to say someone fit enough to run can't wear a mask while doing so.

ANYBODY FIT ENOUGH TO BE MOBILE IS FIT ENOUGH TO WEAR A MASK.


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I agree with Joe...all this does is alienate people on the same pro-mask pro-science side, which is the last thing we need.

Rubbish.

Last edited by Chip McDonald; 11/26/20 03:20 PM.

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Originally Posted by Anderton
Rants in forums won't change minds or effect change. .

We have a problem in the U.S. because we've allowed "freedom of expression" and (faux) "courtesy" to allow a dangerous mindset to flourish, become accepted as a social norm, instead of being marginalized.

10 years ago, how was someone regarded that didn't cover their mouth if they coughed in public? The person that used cuss words loudly in a mixed business setting? Someone that cut people off in traffic? These things are (were...) considered unacceptable public behavior, marginalized, and at one point in time simply not done because of social pressure.

What's been allowed to happen with masks and distancing: "polite acceptance". That's wrong IMO. And ranting about it here may only influence one person reading this, but if they ask someone to pull their mask up in public because they feel they're not alone in this opinion, a change HAS been made. The anti-maskers have been brigading social media, and are being allowed to continue to mainstream their "perspective" and it's already caused people to die. *We should not let it become a "socially acceptable choice" when it should be ostracized*.


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Holy shit, dude, are you not capable of moving your eyes slightly to your left where my profile states I live in Houston??? Or maybe because it's not in the south east, you don't know where it is. rolleyes razz

As many times as I've tried to agree with you, it seems like all you want to do is argue. If the people at your park are not distancing and not wearing masks, I totally agree with you that sucks!!! It also sucks if you are encountering lots of anti-mask people both not wearing masks indoors and harassing those that do. It totally sucks that we could have this frigging thing under control if people would just do these things and now it's worse than when you and I started discussing this and doesn't show any signs of going down. I hate to think how many people are getting together celebrating Thanksgiving today and probably causing even more spread. frown

BTW, that study you linked to and has often been quoted should not be taken as gospel about the effectiveness about particular types of masks, because it was designed primarily to show how such a study could be done with low-cost. More studies need to be done and results independently verified. It was a proof of concept and they admit the number of tests they ran weren't enough (they only used one speaker for instance).


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At this point, there's no doubt that more people wearing masks reduces the rate of infection. What people choose to do with that knowledge, assuming they're aware of it, is not something we can influence here.

So back to reality. As I've mentioned before, I have some connections to people high up in the front lines, and one who's connected to the CDC. One of the directors on the floor in Pennsylvania got the vaccine yesterday, after 45 COVID patients came into intensive care in one day. Apparently it really messes some people up for a day or two (he was one of them), but then you're okay.

A lot of hope is being pinned on vaccines, but with a slow rollout, it won't be a situation where everyone can be vaccinated at once and stamp this thing out. It's going to the health professionals first, as it should, because not only do they face risks far beyond those of the average person, there are not enough workers to go around any more. So if they start getting sick, there will be a domino effect where people who would otherwise not die from COVID will, simply from an inability to be treated.

Look, it's a mess. All we can do is our best as individuals, and hope that enough individuals also do their best to slow down the rate of infection.

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I agree with you, Craig.

I was just at Thanksgiving lunch with my in-laws (all outdoors, distanced), and my MIL and her husband's sister both said they're NOT taking the vaccine. My wife and I believe that her mother isn't taking it because she's had reactions to flu shots and other ones so she doesn't want that, but we don't know why the aunt won't and didn't ask. They are both in or around 70 though, and have had their health issues so I think they might be wary about being able to handle it.

Chip, IIRC, you've posted in this thread about this disease hitting you hard in relation to your parents, and for that I'm truly sorry. I don't know if I specifically wrote that before and wanted to make sure I did. It especially sucks that you get anti-maskers and non-believers of the virus in your face all the time on top of that.


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I'll continue to self-isolate. W hen I need to go out I'll try to pick uncrowded times of the day and wear a mask. I' do my best to wait this thing out until a vaccine is available to me and by then it will be proven enough for me to take it.

I understand it'll make me sick a day or two, and then have only a 90-95% chance of immunity, but that's worth a day or two of feeling sick. If the virus mutates to the point where we need a booster every year, I'm in.

I know people who have caught this, and none of them recommend taking chances on getting COVID.

I'm normally very healthy, I don't get flu shots and I entertain senior citizens (and they like to hug and kiss us after the gig). I think the last time I got the flu itself was in the 1980s. I've been a pro musician since 1964 and have never missed a gig. I caught a cold last year, the first one in over 15 years and it was one day of sneezing, one day of coughing and it was gone. I'm on zero medications, which is rare for a person of my age. If I catch COVID, I'll probably get a mild case, and I'm hoping when I get vaccinated, I'll get a mild reaction.

I don't believe the vaccine is going to contain a Bill Gates sponsored microchip or anything else some conspiracy theorists are touting. I do believe they are the best shot we have now to control COVID.

The response from the scientific community has been monumental. A vaccine has never happened this quickly. Of course they are standing on the shoulders of all who have come before, and new methods like mRNA might just be a game changer for us.

I'm optimistic.

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<<I do believe they are the best shot we have now to control COVID.>>

I get it! Sorry, don't want to needle you about bad puns.

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Originally Posted by Anderton
<<I do believe they are the best shot we have now to control COVID.>>

I get it! Sorry, don't want to needle you about bad puns.
I just wanted to inject a little humor into the thread.

Last edited by Notes_Norton; 11/28/20 01:24 AM.

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Are you a bettin’ man?

COVID recovery rate is 98%++
COVID vaccines are 90%+ effective.

WTF ...

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Originally Posted by Groove On
Are you a bettin’ man?

COVID recovery rate is 98%++
COVID vaccines are 90%+ effective.

WTF ...

Unfortunately it's not quite that simple. There are around 13.3 million infections that have been tracked. 6.5 million are listed as recovered, and 6.5 million are active so we don't know if they'll recover or die. There are 270,000 deaths. So we know that so far, at least 2% of those infected will die, but that assumes none of the 6.5 million active cases lead to additional deaths. That's highly unlikely, to say the least. There are 90,000 people hospitalized right now, and the numbers keep growing at a non-linear rate. They're not all going to make it out alive.

But here's where I'm not a bettin' man. 13.3 million infections means that only about 4% of the US population has been infected. That means 96% of us are still eligible to be infected by an efficient and highly contagious virus. Now, it could mutate into something more infectious but less harmful, which would be in its best interests - it doesn't want to kill everyone, because then there would be no hosts left. That could possibly work to our advantage, where it really does become more like the world's worst flu. Or it could mutate into something that the current vaccines aren't anticipating, and keep right on going.

If 20% of the population ends up getting infected - not entirely unreasonable - that's 70,000,000 infections. Assuming a best-case 2% death rate, that means 1,400,000 people are going to die. That's a lot. That's why it's important for people not to get infected, because if they pass it on to others, who pass it on to others, we could hit that 20% number before the vaccines get to take hold completely. The rate at which infections are increasing is scary as hell. We've hit the exponential part of the curve.

And finally, there's the question of what "recovery" really means. In some people we're seeing what appears to be permanent organ damage, "long haulers" whose symptoms persist for months even after the virus leaves their bodies...and no one knows if this is going to end up like herpes or something else that resurfaces later in life.

There's so much we don't know. No one knows. The one thing I do know is that hospitals can't handle the case loads they're getting now, let alone what they'll be getting in the next month or two. What has kept the death rate down lately, compared to the first surge, is intensive medical care. Once the number of patients exceeds the ability to get intensive medical care, the death rate will climb.

But I am realistic about this. At the moment, the odds of not getting infected are in your favor, and if you do get infected, the odds are in your favor that you won't die. However, the people I've talked to who've survived COVID say it's the worse thing they've ever experienced - a horrible, debilitating sickness with a long recovery time (and many of them feel that they're out of danger, but aren't anywhere near back to how they felt before they got sick).

And of course, the people I've talked to who died of COVID have no comment smile

So I'm going to do everything I can do make sure I don't get infected, and also, to make sure I don't infect anyone else. Seems like the logical thing to do.

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I'll add this. "95% effective" for a vaccine doesn't mean what you probably think it means.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/20/health/covid-vaccine-95-effective.html

Quote
What do the companies mean when they say their vaccines are 95 percent effective?

The fundamental logic behind today’s vaccine trials was worked out by statisticians over a century ago. Researchers vaccinate some people and give a placebo to others. They then wait for participants to get sick and look at how many of the illnesses came from each group.

In the case of Pfizer, for example, the company recruited 43,661 volunteers and waited for 170 people to come down with symptoms of Covid-19 and then get a positive test. Out of these 170, 162 had received a placebo shot, and just eight had received the real vaccine.

From these numbers, Pfizer’s researchers calculated the fraction of volunteers in each group who got sick. Both fractions were small, but the fraction of unvaccinated volunteers who got sick was much bigger than the fraction of vaccinated ones. The scientists then determined the relative difference between those two fractions. Scientists express that difference with a value they call efficacy. If there’s no difference between the vaccine and placebo groups, the efficacy is zero. If none of the sick people had been vaccinated, the efficacy is 100 percent.

A 95 percent efficacy is certainly compelling evidence that a vaccine works well. But that number doesn’t tell you what your chances are of becoming sick if you get vaccinated. And on its own, it also doesn’t say how well the vaccine will bring down Covid-19 across the United States.

There's lots more interesting info at the link, but we should all consider this part.

Quote
“Vaccines don’t save lives,” said A. David Paltiel, a professor at the Yale School of Public Health. “Vaccination programs save lives.”

On Thursday, Dr. Paltiel and his colleagues published a study in the journal Health Affairs in which they simulated the coming rollout of coronavirus vaccines. They modeled vaccines with efficacy rates ranging from high to low, but also considered how quickly and widely a vaccine could be distributed as the pandemic continues to rage.

The results, Dr. Paltiel said, were heartbreaking. He and his colleagues found that when it comes to cutting down on infections, hospitalizations and deaths, the deployment mattered just as much as the efficacy. The study left Dr. Paltiel worried that the United States has not done enough to prepare for the massive distribution of the vaccine in the months to come.

“Time is really running out,” he warned. “Infrastructure is going to contribute at least as much, if not more, than the vaccine itself to the success of the program.”


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I'm betting on the vaccine right now. And I'm doing my best to reduce exposure and chances of me or my wife catching the virus to a minimum. That increases my chances of getting the vaccine while I'm still uninfected.

True, vaccines don't save lives. They prolong lives, but sooner or later we are all going to die.

I didn't get polio, diphtheria, tetanus, smallpox, and a number of other diseases that could have killed me, thanks to vaccinations. I do hope not getting vaccinated doesn't turn into a political statement like not wearing masks did. If you are a candidate, go with the experts, not the pundits or politicians.

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Bob "Notes" Norton
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