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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Danzilla #3061012 09/03/20 03:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Danzilla
My band has our first gig in 7 months tomorrow night. At a local brewery, playing outside.

Best to you Dan, weather supposed to be fantastic tomorrow. I checked out the brewery but it's a 90 minute drive for me each way. Hope to catch you another time.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Danzilla #3061017 09/03/20 04:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Danzilla
Maybe we'll just wear Devo suits.

It didn't work for Mark Mothersbaugh.

(I know, that's a tacky joke. I'm glad it didn't take him though.)


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3061027 09/03/20 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
A very interesting analysis

A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supe...ting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

I found it a very interesting read.

Notes

Interesting indeed, especially the part about potential cures if the theory is correct.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3061057 09/03/20 08:01 PM
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I read somewhere on the net last week, that mosquito repellent derived from the eucalyptus plant kills COVID. I ordered some from Amazon (X-pensive!) because I have to take a bath in the stuff every day and still put rocks in my pockets to keep from being carried off.

Happy to report it works- on the COVID, that is. The skeeters think it's meat tenderizer.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3061109 09/04/20 03:46 AM
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Been away for a few days and missed the Times article about testing. I didn't find a paywall just a popup asking if I wanted to subscribe, I X'd it out and read the article. I find it truly mindblowing and it seems to be backed up by solid science. In case I'm special or something and everybody else but me is really getting shut out by a paywall, here is another article that summarizes it well:

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/report-90-covid-19-cases-might-not-be-contagious

It's unfortunate a discussion about this got politically sidelined. I would like to see a discussion about this because after doing a cursory Google search I can't find anything other than basically a reprint of the article I posted. If this is a "thing' being discussed in professional medical circles, where are those articles? The other thing that occurs to me is the 180,000 US deaths from COVID. If this new info about false positives is even close to being true then something is very wrong with the overall death rates. Either the 180K deaths (so far) means the fatality rate is much, much higher than we thought or the conspiracy theory's about comorbidities accounting for the majority of reported COVID deaths are not conspiracy theory's after all.

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3061118 09/04/20 06:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
If this new info about false positives is even close to being true then something is very wrong with the overall death rates. Either the 180K deaths (so far) means the fatality rate is much, much higher than we thought or the conspiracy theory's about comorbidities accounting for the majority of reported COVID deaths are not conspiracy theory's after all.

Or both. Think of all the people who said the death rate was much lower than project, so there's nothing to worry about. Maybe that's not the case after all. As to comorbidity, I don't think anyone disputes that underlying conditions make you much more vulnerable to dying from COVID-19. But the bottom line is if someone has been managing, say, diabetes or a heart condition for years, then they get COVID-19 and die, then they died from COVID-19.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3061157 09/04/20 03:36 PM
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I think death rates are likely inflated because there has not been an adequate distinction between dying with tCOVID and dying because of COVID. Also there may be a financial incentive for hospitals to report deaths as caused by COVID. If true, it's possible that that could interfere with an honest reporting.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
pinkfloydcramer #3061172 09/04/20 05:10 PM
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Originally Posted by pinkfloydcramer
I think death rates are likely inflated because there has not been an adequate distinction between dying with tCOVID and dying because of COVID. Also there may be a financial incentive for hospitals to report deaths as caused by COVID. If true, it's possible that that could interfere with an honest reporting.

As with so many aspects of this whole mess, there's no simple answer. Many hospitals are not about being wellness centers, but profit centers. I was talking to a front-line worker in Massachusetts who said her hospital is freaking out because due to all the COVID-19 patients, they haven't been able to do the highly profitable elective surgeries. But I also got the impression that none of the people involved in this - politicians, hospitals, insurance companies, the media, you name it - are above trying to game the system.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3061204 09/04/20 09:15 PM
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According to the interview I saw with the director of Mass General some weeks ago, it's not that the hospital is so full of COVID patients, it's not even close to being full. It's because the government requires them to be prepared and ready for a big influx so they are not able to do the elective surgeries. Also, people misunderstand what an elective surgery is. It's not something frivolous like a boob job or something. No, it's just not life threatening so there are tons of elderly people who need hip or knee replacements for example who can't get them and they're suffering with a lot of pain right now. Cancer screenings are still way down so consequently the number of new cancer diagnoses are way down as well. That is a huge concern because obviously, there has not been some new cure for cancer announced. People talk about being worried about dying from COVID, how would you like to get diagnosed with some stage 4 cancer in a few months and was refused a screening last June? What about those people who wind up dying from their cancers? I suppose you could say they died of COVID too.

Here's a good article that details all of this on a state by state basis. Note as of August 28th, Massachusetts still does not allow elective surgeries. This is an example of people getting very upset with certain state governors. Missing these procedures can have serious consequences when they're not done as recommended. Even super liberal California lifted these restrictions on April 26 but not Massachusetts. I would be pissed too if I lived there, I just had my every 3 year colonoscopy two days ago. That is just one of many cancer screenings and good for me, the doctor said I'm fine. I've been careful about this for 25 years and would not want to miss one of those and as much as we all hate doing it, they're a necessary evil. The last thing anybody wants to hear is you have a bad cancer that would have been no big deal if caught early.

https://www.mcguirewoods.com/client...e-prohibition-elective-procedures-orders

I would still like to see more info about these false positives referenced in the NY Times. Anybody have anything new about that?

Bob


Hammond SK1, Mojo 61, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3061212 09/04/20 10:28 PM
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Given the non standard reporting the number of deaths and the death rate could be way off. But there is a greater likelihood that the number of deaths is under reported rather than over reported. There is a statistic called “excess deaths”. Currently we are running a fair number north of 240,000 deaths above what should have been expected based on averaging annual trends. So if you subtract out the 180k covid deaths it still leaves almost 60k unexplained excess deaths above expectations.

You can check it out on the CDC website. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Last edited by dboomer; 09/04/20 10:29 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3061235 09/05/20 01:33 AM
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IMO COVID deaths are probably under-reported because if the cause is unknown, why waste a test on a dead person.

I know two people who just got their knees done in Florida while the ICU wards are full of COVID patients. One was postponed for a month though.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Joe Muscara #3061581 09/07/20 07:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe Muscara
From what I hear, F1 has all the teams and support in "bubbles" and so far not a single positive test result. It seems to me they're doing things right.


There is a difference between "doing safety right" and *being* safe. They have had 3 team members out with it, and last month a driver. The problem is that the testing isn't 100%, the isolation isn't 100%, and the practice of masks and distancing is very far from perfect. It only takes a casual
bit of watching to see mechanics with the mask off their nose, and during the winning celebration you've got the teams pressed side to side yelling. It's not safe; if a test is wrong, or someone (like a driver and a team boss did a few weeks ago) decides on a thursday to go down the road to get a Coke, gets infected at the gas station, and then by Sunday they're infecting people.

F1 tests every 5 days. The tests aren't perfect. The driver that was infected (who now may have invisible complications he won't necessarily know about) was quarantined for 14 days after his positive test; then tested negative before allowed back, but there are problems with the
math of that relative to seroconversion.

Quote
It's too early to tell if the NBA has it down. MLS already lost two teams because they had too many players test positive.

NBA is the same situation.

The premise that "we're taking precautions" that are *imperfect* helps, but is not a guarantee. When the situation, like in F1, naturally requires a lot of people in the same area breathing air that has been in each other's lungs, it's only "safe" until it isn't, then you could have
a really big problem.

Additionally - *complications from COVID19 are not being publicized*. If something like 40% of the infected have life long organ complications, everyone quoting death stats are misdirecting the danger. The F1 driver above, the NBA guys that have had it and are now "symptom free" - we don't know what has happened to them completely. Renal failure 10 years from now, heart attack - of the thousands of people who have recovered we most likely will end up with another health care crisis eventually as cardiac, pulmonary, renal and mental problems start appearing that have been
discounted today out of ignorance.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Joe Muscara #3061582 09/07/20 07:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe Muscara
We are the one species on Earth that is capable of learning outside of our own experiences, yet so many refuse to do so. frown

What I've learned is that the median i.q. are a lot dumber than I thought. Inverse Dunning-Kruger syndrome.


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/ "big ass windbag" - Bruce Swedien
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
ksoper #3061584 09/07/20 07:31 PM
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Originally Posted by ksoper
Someone very close to me died from Covid-19. But even before then I knew it was serious when my Hospitalist Nurse Practitioner wife sent me to the grocery store to buy large lawn/leaf bags for them to wear. She was exposed again a few nights ago. A patient was admitted and was given a cursory look-over by the ER doc. My wife and a new NP who is shadowing went to work the patient up. Wouldn't you know it? Couple of days later the patient is Covid positive.

My mother died a few weeks ago from presumably complications of lung cancer.

We're not sure, because - we had just put her on hospice a week earlier. Which meant my months of staying out of my parent's house, while my mother is dying, was thrown out the window as hospice personnel had to come into the house.

My own viral provenance was unknown, so I still stayed out. I'd been "visiting" by standing at my parent's storm door at their backyard while talking on the phone to them, or via FaceTime. But the people that brought in the hospital bed, the nurses - what of them? My father had an N95, but my mother couldn't wear one of course. She suddenly got much worse the week after hospice; but COVID symptoms overlap lung cancer symptoms. And having her on a vent, alone in the hospital, would have been even more horrible.

I had a phone conversation with the hospice social worker, who insisted she MUST see my mother face-to-face. I saw it as another unnecessary risk. In the conversation I eventually asked "what would you do it if was your mother and it meant another person would be around her that may be infected?" and the woman said "well *i* am not going to let FEAR rule MY life!!! God watches over me and protects me!" at which point I told her "do not come to my parent's house" and hung up.

As I saw it I wasn't protecting just my mother, but my 86 year old father as well. It was not how I envisioned the last days of my mother's life would be. I had visited my parents every Friday since I moved out of the house, and I always thought it would go slow, I would extend my visits, etc.. I never expected that visiting itself would be curtailed (back in early March I stopped, realizing the danger). Had we lived in Canada, New Zealand, or some place rational where masks were not regarded as "pussy" or a "lib conspiracy against Trump" maybe I could have risked visiting, but as I sit here now I have no idea if I'm infected or not. My wife had to go back to work, and there is a long list of people where she works that has contracted it, a few have died; it feels inevitable she gets it, and I will in turn.

But I tried to protect my parents. But did the hospice company do everything they could? Of course not.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Chip McDonald #3061600 09/07/20 08:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Chip McDonald
Additionally - *complications from COVID19 are not being publicized*. If something like 40% of the infected have life long organ complications, everyone quoting death stats are misdirecting the danger. The F1 driver above, the NBA guys that have had it and are now "symptom free" - we don't know what has happened to them completely. Renal failure 10 years from now, heart attack - of the thousands of people who have recovered we most likely will end up with another health care crisis eventually as cardiac, pulmonary, renal and mental problems start appearing that have been
discounted today out of ignorance.
This is the most publicized and reported virus in history, so much so that positive tests of people with no symptoms are being reported daily. Therefore, it's hard to believe that 40% of people have long term organ complications and no one is talking about it.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm very skeptical.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3061603 09/07/20 10:25 PM
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Of course, the problem with long-term effects is you don't know what the effects will be for quite some time.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3061611 09/07/20 11:30 PM
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I'm reading a lot about long term organ damage, and one of 3 of my relatives who got COVID has long term organ damage, probably permanent. The jury is still out on the other two.

There are those on one extreme who say it's nothing to worry about, those on the other extreme who say it's the end of humanity, and the truth lies somewhere in between.

The fact that we know (1) it's potentially fatal and (2) it can lead to permanent organ damage leads me to think we should err on the side of caution. After all we look both ways before we cross the street and not that many pedestrians are killed each year. The fact that some people wear their refusal to err on the side of caution really bewilders me.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3061612 09/07/20 11:37 PM
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Chip, I’m very sorry to read about the loss of your mom and what you’ve been through. frown I’m glad you told the one hospice worker to stay away. People like that rolleyes

As far as your reply about my post about the various sporting leagues, you haven’t been in this thread so I don’t know if you’ve seen my other posts, but I’m not taking this lightly. My post was obviously before Perez was diagnosed. Also, what I’ve seen in F1 and NBA is that for instance, they generally are taking things like mask wearing more seriously than the general public seems to be. I sincerely hope so for their sake. I’ve also been beating the drum here regarding potential long term effects so I’m well aware of that. Hopefully those who test positive but have little or no other symptoms won’t have them but only time will tell. Others have had lingering symptoms for months and don’t know if it will ever end for them. That’s not something I want to find out for myself in either case.

In summary, I’m not doing anything around lots of people and if all those leagues didn’t play, I would support that. If they are playing, I truly hope they’re doing everything they can. I can’t make decisions for everyone, unfortunately.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3062301 09/13/20 05:30 AM
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trumpet and organ swing at Keystone Lounge in Baltimore MD this past evening. Sean Jones and Pat Bianchi. PB is the sh!t. Gigs are real folks. Dump those masks and get out and party. Not many people there, we need to work on that. gofish

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3062322 09/13/20 01:50 PM
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No gigs here yet frown

Bars are going to open at half capacity Monday. We'll see what happens.

I think they are going to need more than half full to afford a band, even if the band is hungry and cuts its price.

But at least it's a step forward.

I'm not ready to ditch the mask and play indoors, but I might take an outdoor gig if offered.

I like being not-dead

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
PrairieGuy #3062377 09/13/20 09:27 PM
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Originally Posted by PrairieGuy
This is the most publicized and reported virus in history, so much so that positive tests of people with no symptoms are being reported daily. Therefore, it's hard to believe that 40% of people have long term organ complications and no one is talking about it.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm very skeptical.

"No one is talking about it" - who is the "no one", mainstream media, Trump? What does positive tests with no symptoms have to do with anything? There is nothing to "believe", it's fact, there are plenty of abstracts of studies available that show this.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3062380 09/13/20 09:41 PM
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I had an appointment some months back at one specialist clinic that does a lot of what are called elective surgeries and procedures. I was just there for something small, non-surgical - but as I always do, I chat up the PAs and the docs and whoever. I like to think I'm a nice guy, but probably I'm just chatty for being a little nervous going to the doc. I asked what it was like, losing so much business due to all the elective stuff coming to a halt.

The doc said, "oh, it's really been tough, but we'll get through".

I asked the PA who came in after the doc was done if she had lost a lot of work time due to the lack of elective surgeries - and she answered, "oh, we haven't stopped doing any of our procedures and surgeries! So things have been great!".

!!!!!!

Could have been a misunderstood question...but I have no idea if there are any teeth to the "no elective surgeries" mandate or not.

nat

Last edited by Nowarezman; 09/13/20 09:45 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Chip McDonald #3062448 09/14/20 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Chip McDonald
"No one is talking about it" - who is the "no one", mainstream media, Trump? What does positive tests with no symptoms have to do with anything? There is nothing to "believe", it's fact, there are plenty of abstracts of studies available that show this.
"No one" meaning that there are no verified reports of high numbers (someone said 40%?) of people with long term health issues. That would be 10's of thousands of people instead of the occasional case we hear about.

Positive tests with no symptoms either means the test was wrong or people are getting the virus and not getting sick. If the tests are wrong, then the numbers are inflated. If they're getting the virus and not getting sick, that's a good thing.

Last edited by PrairieGuy; 09/14/20 12:24 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Nowarezman #3062461 09/14/20 02:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Nowarezman
I had an appointment some months back at one specialist clinic that does a lot of what are called elective surgeries and procedures. I was just there for something small, non-surgical - but as I always do, I chat up the PAs and the docs and whoever. I like to think I'm a nice guy, but probably I'm just chatty for being a little nervous going to the doc. I asked what it was like, losing so much business due to all the elective stuff coming to a halt.

The doc said, "oh, it's really been tough, but we'll get through".

I asked the PA who came in after the doc was done if she had lost a lot of work time due to the lack of elective surgeries - and she answered, "oh, we haven't stopped doing any of our procedures and surgeries! So things have been great!".

!!!!!!

Could have been a misunderstood question...but I have no idea if there are any teeth to the "no elective surgeries" mandate or not.

nat

Timelines vary around the country, but the elective surgery shutdown was mid-March to the first week of June. PPE availability, the degree of community spread, and the unknown hospital bed demand was driving that.

example:
https://surgery.stanford.edu/news2/COVID19-timeline.html

Hospitals here have been both feast and famine depending on responsibilities. Extended shifts and layoffs are both part of the scene here. Overall, though, a general downturn. So you could schedule something like a colonoscopy but you have to present yourself 3 days ahead for a Covid test and then isolate until the procedure.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3063315 09/22/20 04:46 PM
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And here's the latest unsubstantiated anecdotal evidence that may or may not actually be valid...

It seems countries in the southern hemisphere, where it has been winter, haven't had the apocalyptic flu/COVID combo that was predicted. Apparently, the social distancing/mask stuff designed to slow down COVID also slowed down the regular flu.

In China, doctors in one hospital noticed that there were far fewer near-sighted patients (<6%) who wore glasses 8 or more hours a day than in the general population (>30%). They theorized that maybe glasses serve as a shield against infected through your eyes. However it was a very small sample, not peer-reviewed, etc. etc.

There have been quite a few stories here in TN of people who died of COVID-19 and, before they died, wrote social media posts about how it's overblown and a hoax. Now, some people without a heart might think "got what they deserved," but the conclusion I get from it is that if you go about trying to lead your life as if this isn't a problem and therefore don't take any precautions, you're more likely to get infected.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3063332 09/22/20 07:22 PM
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In the three county area where I live, all 3 passed mask ordinances requiring them in all public places. The rate of infection has gone way down since then. It's an indicator, but not scientific proof that masks work.

Don't leave home without 'em.

My brother-in-law's family thought masks were a hoax, and 3 our of 4 got it. 3 got hospitalized and one almost died. They believed a real-estate-salesman instead of a doctor who specializes in infectious diseases. They made a poor choice. Thankfully they survived, although one has permanent organ damage and the jury is out on the other two (it might be permanent or hopefully not).

A word to the wise, - wear them.

Insights and incites by Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
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