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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3060083 08/27/20 05:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
I've been waiting for this. The initial reports of cases from the Sturgis motorcycle rally:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/corona...ly-south-dakota-over-100-cases-8-states/

A measly hundred cases out of hundreds of thousands? Multiply that by ten and it's not too bad. So, what does this mean, it's almost laughable. People crammed like sardines all over the place with no mask requirement and this is all we get?

Well, your question mark is "the devil in the details." The language is pretty qualifed: "Now, about three weeks after the rally kicked off, the repercussions are starting to become clear. More than 100 cases of COVID-19 connected to the rally have been reported in at least eight states, the Associated Press reports.So far, state health departments have reported 103 cases in South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming and Washington, according to the AP." I'm sure people were there from more than 8 states.

So we don't know yet whether that's the definitive, case-is-closed number, or the tip of the iceberg. We also don't know if people picked it up, are asymptomatic, and spreading it to others unknowingly. As usual, we just don't know definitively what's going on.

Perhaps more importantly, if those numbers do hold, then why weren't there more cases? We have numerous examples of people gathering at parties, churches, college campuses, etc. and generating large numbers of COVID-19 cases. Do motorcyclists lead a healthier, outdoor lifestyle? Was it because a much smaller number than the total number of attendees jammed into enclosed bars where it's easier to catch the virus compared to, say, a campground? Was sanitizing the sidewalks what made the difference?

Quote
I know some were almost cheering for a bunch of "live free or die" rednecks to catch this so they could be all smug and say I told ya so.

Then those people are clueless, the demographic isn't Hell's Angels. It skews young, at mostly sub-60, and also has a considerable number of professionals (doctors, lawyers, executive, etc.) who like to ride motorcycles. The days when the emergency rooms were filled with people who had the consequences of nasty bar fights are (mostly) behind us. Gibson used to go there regularly, because much of the demographic includes the kind of people who like to buy expensive guitars.

Like so many aspects of this whole thing, there are still more questions than answers. I hope the numbers hold, but who knows.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3060104 08/28/20 01:13 AM
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The numbers will always look insignificant until 3 of your family members catch COVID, come close to dying, and end up with permanent organ damage.

A lot of people from Florida went to Sturgis, and they aren't being tested, so there is really no way to tell how many people at the rally got infected. After what I've seen hope the numbers are minimal.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3060232 08/29/20 04:41 AM
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The critters around your house sounds like me other than the gators and the skeeters. In addition to the same collection of critters you have including rattlers and other snakes we also have tarantulas and big ones. Luckily, they're actually almost friendly. A neighbor showed me a trick, you can get down in front of one and hold your hand palm out towards it and if it rears up and shows it's fangs it's a male who's looking for a mate and leave him alone. If it doesn't rear up you can let him walk on your hand if you want. Not for me but interesting anyway. I've had a problem the last month or so with raccoons under the house making noise in the middle of the night. Someone told me about mothballs so I started putting them under the house every few days and the smell definitely forced them out. Luckily the smell doesn't get into the house.

Craig, your point about who most modern big city bikers are is absolutely correct. I've done a few gigs at a biker bar in Ventura that used to be a real Hells Angels hangout but now it's wealthy types who live over the mountains in Malibu. My point about Sturgis is I don't think it was that part of the biker crowd. There is still a huge group of bikers who are typical middle America working class people. The wealthy upper class bikers are supposed to be the intelligent well educated ones who would never go to Sturgis in the middle of this pandemic in the first place with no masks and all crowded together. Of course that's a lot of generalization and we'll never know but I suspect the Malibu bikers stayed home. If they didn't and Sturgis was full of doctors, lawyers, celebrities and other yacht club types then that just shows that the idea the public will accept another full blown shutdown of the economy is truly wrong. Right or wrong, most are willing to accept the risks and get on with their lives.

Some good news yesterday, Abbot Labs came out with a totally new 15 minute COVID test that will only cost five bucks. They were the ones who came out with a different fast test months ago that proved to have too many false results on both the positive and negative side. This new one is supposed to be good and Trump announced the government is buying 150 million of them but Abbot is ramping up to quickly build many more than that and the little tester itself is resuable. You take a less intrusive swap, stick in the gadget and get a result in 15 minutes. This "could be" the game changer we need until a vaccine is available. Want to get on an airplane? Take the test at the airport and if you pass you're good to go and you'll know everybody on the plane passed it as well.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3060237 08/29/20 05:21 AM
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Ultimately, the figure for testing and new cases are fraught. But, people who end up in hospitals from it...well, you can't claim those numbers are rigged.

Check out these charts from Texas, current as of a couple days ago.

https://www.click2houston.com/news/...wnturn-these-charts-tell-the-real-story/

There's something for everyone!! Overall new cases are down, but it seems to correlate to when a mask order was issued. So masks are good! But cumulative cases continue to increase. Masks don't make a difference! Fewer people are hospitalized - great news! Then again, people who are dead no longer need to be hospitalized. But hey, only a small percentage of people die! It's just like a really bad flu!

[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]

Except it looks like not dying doesn't mean you're home free.

I really do think I got in December 2019 (yeah, I used to travel a lot), and feel more like that's the case as we learn more about the virus. I still have shortness of breath, fatigue, and other symptoms, eight months later that I did NOT have in November 2019.

I don't know what to think. If what I had was COVID-19, don't get it. If it wasn't, and COVID-19 is worse, then REALLY don't get it!

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3060257 08/29/20 02:02 PM
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When I read that survivors had scarred lung tissue, I decided to isolate. I make my living with my lungs, singing, saxophone, and wind synth. Plus I rather like my lungs, I've grown rather attached to them.

I hope the new 5 minute test is reliable, it would be the second best thing to a vaccine, that is if it doesn't become a political division like masks.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3060282 08/29/20 05:17 PM
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Doubtful you had COVID in December Craig. Almost everybody I know including me had some kind of bad upper respiratory bug in Nov and Dec. It put me down for over a week to the point I was wondering if I could make the Christmas and New Years gigs I had booked. There was an article somewhere that talked about that and people in other forums posted about it too. We all talk about and agree with the science. All the research shows the virus wasn't around in November and barely around in December. Lots of people who got sick then were using their sickness to dispute that research.

The sad thing is is after all this time nothing has changed for us. All of us old guys have to be very careful and what is going on all around us with stores, shopping, traffic that is starting to look like "normal" doesn't apply to us. We can have little disagreements about this point or that point but bottom line it doesn't matter for us. Anybody over 70 is still in the same boat. And as if the news wasn't still bad, here's what's happening in Europe:

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Case-numbers-rise-again-in-Europe-15522078.php

This new rapid test could be a big deal if it works out as advertised but of course the news reports and commentary are not exactly accurate as usual. This is not going to be so common we can do it basically anywhere at any time. Not yet. Here's a good article about it and this says it's still a healthcare professional/patient thing right now not just walk into an airport for example and get tested before you get on the plane or get into a football stadium or concert. It could get to that point eventually I suppose but not right now. It is a nice piece of good news though.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...rate-coronavirus-test-could-cost-just-5#

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3060396 08/30/20 07:23 PM
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90% of the positive test results should have been negative?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3060419 08/30/20 11:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
Doubtful you had COVID in December Craig. Almost everybody I know including me had some kind of bad upper respiratory bug in Nov and Dec.

Bob

I wouldn't say doubtful

" The first laboratory-confirmed case of COVID-19 in the United States was confirmed on January 20, 2020, and reported to CDC on January 22, 2020."

CDC , national and state/county health authorities, were not accurately aware of C-19.

Prior to Jan 22, it was a case of " they don't know what they don't know "

It would stand to reason, C-19 was spreading in mid December to mid January.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
GregC #3060426 08/31/20 12:49 AM
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Originally Posted by GregC
Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
Doubtful you had COVID in December Craig. Almost everybody I know including me had some kind of bad upper respiratory bug in Nov and Dec.

Bob

I wouldn't say doubtful

Who knows? FWIW, the doctors said I had a really bad flu, so they gave me a flu test. It came up negative, possibly because there wasn't a test to detect COVID-19 at the time. They also said it was way worse than any kind of cold, so they figured instead that maybe it was some really nasty bronchial thing. They gave me prescriptions to handle it and that would fix it. The prescriptions did nothing; getting over the worst of it just took time.

So I have nothing concrete, other than I don't ever remembering feeling sicker aside from severe mononucleosis as a kid, and food poisoning in Spain. What IS concrete is that I never want to be that sick again. Ever!

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3060500 08/31/20 08:02 PM
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Craig, have yourself tested. If you did have COVID, you might be able to donate plasma and save someone's life.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3060514 08/31/20 09:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
Craig, have yourself tested. If you did have COVID, you might be able to donate plasma and save someone's life.

It's not easy to do that here...the link to testing sites takes you back to a link to the page with testing. There are some sites in Murfreesboro at Urgent Care sites, but many locations do a phone interview first to see if you need to be prioritized. Given that I don't have symptoms, and it was such a long time ago, I think pursuing this at the moment would probably be a waste of time.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3060655 09/01/20 04:38 PM
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The US case count is way overblown, a huge percentage of positive test results (as much as 90% according to the NYT link I furnished, that nobody read) should not have been reported as positive because the coronavirus was present in too-small amounts to cause symptoms, or to infect anyone else. But that goes against the prevailing narrative, which is more religion than science.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
pinkfloydcramer #3060681 09/01/20 06:27 PM
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Originally Posted by pinkfloydcramer
the NYT link I furnished, that nobody read

I read it, may not have used your link as I am a registered user.


that was then and this is now
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
pinkfloydcramer #3060710 09/01/20 08:28 PM
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Originally Posted by pinkfloydcramer
(as much as 90% according to the NYT link I furnished, that nobody read)

It was behind a paywall.

Quote
But that goes against the prevailing narrative, which is more religion than science.

Which prevailing narrative do your mean? The one that says it's a hoax, the one that says it will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths, the one that says it's no worse than the flu, the one that says it will just disappear, or what? All those narratives have plenty of adherents.

All I know is that there are a lot of dead people around the world from this pandemic. There is ample historical precedent, going back centuries, to support the fact that a pandemic kills lots of people. Regardless of how many were tested, test results, etc. etc., you can't dismiss lots of dead people and hospital workers who are freaked out by the severity of the COVID-19 symptoms they're trying to treat.

Keep your eye on India.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3060760 09/02/20 01:14 AM
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Actually I didn't read it either, I found the link through a right wing site that summarized it. Was curious to see if people here agreed with that take after reading it. It seems that finding that 90% of positive test results are innacurate would be a BFD.

So I'm not the only one that hates paywalls..I assumed that most here subscribed to the NYT. I don't because I'm not going to support fake news. I used to enjoy the Times' cultural articles though.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
pinkfloydcramer #3060761 09/02/20 01:27 AM
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Originally Posted by pinkfloydcramer
..I assumed that most here subscribed to the NYT.

kind of OT, but why ?


that was then and this is now
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3060770 09/02/20 02:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Which prevailing narrative do your mean? The one that says it's a hoax, the one that says it will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths, the one that says it's no worse than the flu, the one that says it will just disappear, or what? All those narratives have plenty of adherents.

Not all those narratives are equally "prevailing". smile

The official number of US COVID cases is 6,072,871. Knock that down by 90% and it's down to 607,287 cases. Would that not wreck havoc with a narrative or two? It would mean the spread of the virus is way overhyped. If the tests are far too sensitive and 90% of the people testing positive think they have COVID, even though they feel fine and don't have enough of the virus to infect others, they would needlessly quarantine themselves for 2 weeks and hurt the economy and their ability to provide for their families, increase fear in the community, and provide false justification for continuing economically devastating shutdowns. Or so you (meaning "I") would think. But there must not be anything to that study because far as I know, it's just getting a big bor . At least until Netflix runs out of interesting stuff to watch.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Doerfler #3060773 09/02/20 02:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Doerfler
Originally Posted by pinkfloydcramer
..I assumed that most here subscribed to the NYT.

kind of OT, but why ?

Because it's a popular and revered publication with educated people, based on it's glory days.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
pinkfloydcramer #3060775 09/02/20 02:39 AM
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Originally Posted by pinkfloydcramer
.I assumed that most here subscribed to the NYT. I don't because I'm not going to support fake news.

Find me media that doesn't produce fake news, and I'll subscribe/watch. So far, the closest I've come to finding a publication that at least tries to be neutral is The Hill. They skew conservative, but that doesn't mean they can't have a goal of being objective.

Just remember, it's all about the money. All media panders to their base and tells them what they want to hear, so they can claim big numbers and charge advertisers. The second any media starts telling their supporters things they don't want to hear, or goes against the agendas of their advertisers, they can expect to be out of business shortly thereafter.

Do you think Fox would keep its viewers if it chose stories like "Here are Biden's policies Trump should adopt if he wants to become president?" Do you think the Times would keep its readers if it ran stories like "Here are Trump's policies Biden should adopt if he wants to become president?" Of course not, because they'll lose their collection of narrow-minded, infantile acolytes. That means they'll lose advertisers, which means unemployment.

I don't blame the media. I blame people for wanting to reinforce their prejudices, avoid facing facts, and not do the minimal work required to participate in a functioning civilization.

And to conflate politics with sports, where there are opposing teams whose only options are to win or lose, will only continue to make matters worse. I'm old enough to remember when "compromise" was considered a way to make progress. It was regarded as a sign of intelligence for everyone to get at least some of what they wanted, not a sign of weakness.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3060783 09/02/20 03:42 AM
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I'm bashing the NYT specifically, because they went from greatness to mediocrity and then jumped the shark to where they discarded journalism itself and could no longer be bothered to even make a pretense of being unbiased, citing the uniqueness of these times as a justification. They received Pulitzers for building on the "prevailing" (for its time) narrative that the President was a Russian agent, when that turned out to be a hoax they never held themselves accountable for their error, never realizing their credibility was diminished. And then to complete their own humiliation, their weak- kneed leaders caved in to the social justice warrior newcomers in their ranks, spiking stories and opposing viewpoints. In the words of David Burge: 1) Identify a respected institution, 2) gut it, 3) wear it's carcass as a skin suit while demanding respect.

But they're still solvent so I guess all that worked! Ya do what ya gotta do..

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3060796 09/02/20 10:19 AM
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Would you rather have state-run media, like the old Pravda?

And if we're going to talk politics, I blame Gingrich for intentionally destroying any sense of compromise in Washington with his whole Contract on America.


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Joe Muscara #3060812 09/02/20 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe Muscara
Would you rather have state-run media, like the old Pravda?

And if we're going to talk politics, I blame Gingrich for intentionally destroying any sense of compromise in Washington with his whole Contract on America.

No, I would rather have journalists who practice journalism.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Joe Muscara #3060813 09/02/20 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe Muscara
Would you rather have state-run media, like the old Pravda?

And if we're going to talk politics, I blame Gingrich for intentionally destroying any sense of compromise in Washington with his whole Contract on America.


He was bad news, for sure.

I would go further back- Reagan. " Get the government out of your life. corporations will take of you "

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Joe Muscara #3060814 09/02/20 01:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe Muscara
Would you rather have state-run media, like the old Pravda?
At least with Pravda everyone knew it was biased.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
pinkfloydcramer #3060860 09/02/20 04:47 PM
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Okay, enough politics.

Originally Posted by pinkfloydcramer
[No, I would rather have journalists who practice journalism.

So would I...but as mentioned, if they don't tell their silo-based readers/viewers what they want to hear, the journalists will be out of a job. There have been several people who didn't toe a network's party line, and ended up seeking employment elsewhere.

Among the consumers themselves, It seems like "my mind is made up, don't bother me with the facts" is more prevalent than ever.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3060899 09/02/20 07:27 PM
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I am amazed at two things:

1) How an opinion on a plague can become a political badge of honor

2) How so many people who won't believe the scientists use the Internet that scientists gave us to tell us that science is junk.

Tell 3 of my family members that it's a hoax and I think you will get an earful.

My sister in law thought she was going to die in an isolation ward, without saying good-bye to her family, and how has permanent organ damage. She was extremely healthy before she went in and was in her 50s.

Her son and his fiance got it too.

They were anti-mask, Trump said it's a hoax people, now they say they were stupid.

Craig I like The Hill and for something as it's equal but slightly left biased I like The Atlantic. The two balance each other IMO.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3060902 09/02/20 07:36 PM
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Meanwhile, back at the gigs...

I'm hearing more stories of people who are busking and making some actual money that way. They do it in outside, where social distancing is feasible. They keep the tip jar six feet away so I'm surprised I haven't heard of people running up and snatching it, but I guess you just have to be vigilant.

What's making it possible is the small, battery-operated amps like the Bose S1 et al. Of course this is easier with a solo or duo act, so far it seems mostly people with a guitar and a mic. And I don't know what will happen when the weather gets really cold...but at least for now, it seems to be an option that's working for some people.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3060966 09/03/20 01:05 AM
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A very interesting analysis

A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supe...ting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

I found it a very interesting read.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
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My band has our first gig in 7 months tomorrow night. At a local brewery, playing outside. From what I hear, they've been doing this for at least a couple of months, get a decent turnout (200+) yet still keep most of the distancing & mask requirements to work. Should be interesting.

My other band is playing an outdoor event at the end of the month; and just got asked to play a house party - we would be set up in their garage; garage door open if weather permits. That one did give us some pause, and we asked a lot of questions about set-up, spacing, etc. Maybe we'll just wear Devo suits. Since we're old, and we're through being cool.
[img]https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cleveland.com%2Fmusic%2F2014%2F02%2Fremembering_bob_casale_of_devo.html&psig=AOvVaw0Dg2cN186u-d7MGoNuWFk-&ust=1599225150918000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CAIQjRxqFwoTCLC17b-IzesCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAJ[/img]


"Am I enough of a freak to be worth paying to see?"- Separated Out (Marillion)
NEW band Old band
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3061003 09/03/20 01:21 PM
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 392
Likes: 15
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Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 392
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Good luck with the gigs - and stay healthy!


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
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