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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
GregC #3055655 07/25/20 01:25 AM
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Originally Posted by GregC
Originally Posted by GovernorSilver
[quote

Like it or not, the Birchmere made their own decision on whether or not to reopen for business. If you click the link that Dave posted, you will see the Birchmere's COVID policy. We can presume that every single person who is pondering whether to attend a show at The Birchmere is an adult who knows how to read, will read the COVD policy, and make an informed decision based on that.


Its not up to me to like or not like what Birchmere does.

The relevant question is do you trust your health in what Birchmere does.

And do you trust that every one
at the venue is taking the precautions while you are there next to them ?

Like I mentioned, this depends on your tolerance to health risk while socializing.

GregC, that is up to each and every patron of The Birchmere to decide on their own, including Dave.

You didn't seem aware that Birchmere has a COVID policy, so I was pointing it out.

Also that link you posted is already 2 days out of date. I get COVID updates every day, like clockwork and I'm sure it's the same for Dave. We get info that is current, not two days late.

Last edited by GovernorSilver; 07/25/20 02:28 AM.
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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Greg Mein #3055656 07/25/20 01:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Greg Mein
you actually have to get intimately close to someone who is actually infected to get this. You can choose to believe that or not however there's no denying that I'm the living proof.

Yes, you have to get close to someone that is infected. But since it looks like 40-60% of those that have it are asymptomatic, how could you know?

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3055659 07/25/20 02:42 AM
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Update - Apparently a figure of 40% of deaths among older people holds, according to a New York Times analysis, although they broadened it to include nursing homes, long-care facilities, retirement and senior communities, and rehabilitation facilities. Of course if you think the Times is fake news, you can ignore this. However, it was in the context of an article about how FEMA had sent to nursing homes expired surgical masks, isolation gowns that were basically oversize trash bags, extra small gloves that didn't fit most workers, surgical masks crafted from underwear fabric, and plastic isolation gowns without openings for hands that required users to punch their fists through the closed sleeves, and then attempt to close them with tape. Health regulators in California advised nursing homes not to use the gowns, saying they present an infection control risk. None of the shipments have included functional N95 respirators, which according to the article, are "the virus-filtering face masks that are the single most important bulwark against infection."

Then again, 60% is 88,000 dead people who aren't in old age homes etc., and the deaths continue to rise - there have been over 1200 deaths in the last 24 hours.

Jeez. I guess the deeper you dig, the more likely you'll run into sewer pipes. I really thought that by now, we'd be popping champagne and being thankful this was all behind us.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
dboomer #3055660 07/25/20 03:01 AM
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Originally Posted by dboomer
Originally Posted by Greg Mein
you actually have to get intimately close to someone who is actually infected to get this. You can choose to believe that or not however there's no denying that I'm the living proof.

Yes, you have to get close to someone that is infected. But since it looks like 40-60% of those that have it are asymptomatic, how could you know?

That's an understandable and valid concern and it's actually quite possible that I have been near someone who has/had it in an asymptomatic fashion but no one has been coughing or sneezing near me and I totally respect the space of anyone that I don't actually know, even under normal circumstances, while I don't generally spend much time interacting with them. My responses and comments here over these months may give some the impression that I'm being flippant or living a devil may care lifestyle but nothing could be further from the truth. I know what's going on around me, stay informed while ignoring media sensationalism and trust the knowledge and opinions of professionals I know. I typically approach things using logic, reasoning and critical thinking and I'm certainly not the type to get panicky or hysterical.

I'd like to think that we all know this thing is not going away and nothing can change that, ever, but at the same time this is not the end all and there are many other threats in life we must face sometimes daily. I personally know of some success stories and have read and heard about many more, in fact, we've learned at this point that most people recover and get back to their lives. My wife tells me of a couple she knows in their mid 80's who recently had it, recovered and have gone on with their lives. A few people where I work have contracted it, quarantined, recovered and returned to work. Obviously I feel sad for the inevitable casualties along the way and hope not to become one but I'm not silly enough to think I can hide away from a virus indefinitely. I may end up with it or have already had it, many have or will but I feel strongly about my ability to cope and survive and if not, I've had a good run!

The other day I learned that from the google search bar you can type in literally any three digit number followed by "new cases" and there will appear a list of articles about covid-19 cases that contain that exact number. I tried a whole list and it freaked me out. Left me with a creepy feeling as if I was being manipulated within some sort of horror/sci-fi movie or book!

Last edited by Greg Mein; 07/25/20 08:43 PM.
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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3055673 07/25/20 12:16 PM
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Every time FB tells me "[band or venue] has an event you might be interested in" my initial reaction is, "Nope!" Once in a while I check and it's a virtual event or a fundraiser or something not involving being in a crowd so then I think, "okay, maybe."

Every time an event I would have wanted to go when it was the Before Times gets cancelled*, I think, "good news/bad news!"

*A local blues festival with Jimmie Vaughan headlining was scheduled for September, it was cancelled this week. My niece is getting married the week before that in NY and I was wondering how I was going to break the news that we weren't coming because there's no way I'm going to any airports nor flying under current conditions. I got a virtual invite from her. They are limiting who can go in person because of her grandmother/my mother who is 90. They picked her over me!!!! frown wink Actually, my niece should consider herself lucky because we can put some of the money we would have spent on the trip towards her gift registry.

I'm mostly like Bob. My wife still has her job and works from home full time now, I've been getting the pandemic unemployment, so money here is fine. I can go for my walks and runs in our neighborhood without a mask because I can distance from people easily, I miss some events and things we normally do, but I don't think about it and I'm fine, we order pickup or delivery from local restaurants about as often as we used to eat out so we support those businesses without risking ourselves, there are so many live online events that we almost watch too many and see more performers than we did before all this, so I consider myself very lucky as life here is still good.


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3055750 07/25/20 11:08 PM
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Although live music and DJs are still banned here in Florida, I do see some brave souls working -- mostly singles -- mostly working for tips or real short money. I hope they don't get caught either by the law or the virus.

A sleazy dive bar that has done open mic nights on Fridays for years reopened and got busted. They started reselling food in order to beat the bar closing ordinance, but they don't even have a kitchen. I didn't hear what happened to the musicians. I hope they're OK.

I guess some people are getting antsy from being deprived of some of the joy of life.

I think what Leilani and I miss most is our annual vacation adventure. We go someplace we've never been to each year. We did Austria, Australia, Spain, Czech Republic in recent years and had planned to go to Madagascar this year. But I'd rather be safe. There will be time for that later. Like I said, there is no Ctrl+Z or Command+Z on a decision that ends in COVID.

After the band ban is lifted, if I get asked to gig, I'd have to evaluate the situation before I accept. After all I can't wear a mask and play sax or flute and I don't think it would work too well for vocals either wink

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3055837 07/26/20 07:08 PM
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One possible thing to do during Our Time of COVID could be, let the scientists handle it, let the posters on musicians' forums have the last word, and with your new-found free time invent a new way of playing your instrument:



A string playing maestro friend of mine turned me on to her and I've been listening about every day. Is it laughable to compare her to Tracy Chapman, another African American young lady musician who confounds stereotypes with her folk-y sound? Hope she gets a lot of recognition in days to come.

I also listened to Greg C's Ms Melancholy on SC, really like the way the chords modulate, the instrumentation which seems to mimic a steel at times (to my hickified ears) and as always, that alluring female vocalist. I would wager she has put in some serious time singing torch sings ala Streisand.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
pinkfloydcramer #3055865 07/26/20 10:10 PM
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Originally Posted by pinkfloydcramer
One

I also listened to Greg C's Ms Melancholy on SC, really like the way the chords modulate, the instrumentation which seems to mimic a steel at times (to my hickified ears) and as always, that alluring female vocalist. I would wager she has put in some serious time singing torch sings ala Streisand.

https://soundcloud.com/user-898236994/ms-melancholy

Cool, brother, music has broken into a 'societal ' topic wink

I love the female vocalist on my Ms Melancholy, she slays me every time

You are hearing an important part,, the ' building ' chord work of a slow synth + 2 or 3 guitars
on the same track. Which includes phaser and reverb FX.
There is the usual FX such as echo on piano, and chorus on bass guitar.

I was thinking of a dreamy quality to support a song about a woman . Or even a few women.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
GregC #3055986 07/27/20 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by GregC
Cool, brother, music has broken into a 'societal ' topic wink.

It's rad! It's unprecedented! It's also a great way to kill a COVID thread! laugh Just a musical interlude in the midst of all this oppressive heaviness. smile

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
pinkfloydcramer #3056008 07/27/20 04:44 PM
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Originally Posted by pinkfloydcramer
Originally Posted by GregC
Cool, brother, music has broken into a 'societal ' topic wink.

It's rad! It's unprecedented! It's also a great way to kill a COVID thread! laugh Just a musical interlude in the midst of all this oppressive heaviness. smile

I agree ! Time for hard turn away from ' stuff' we have sketchy control over.

Music will never let us down.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3056031 07/27/20 06:07 PM
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Actually, we're finally getting the perfect answer to the OP question - "Now what?" smile

@GregC - question - on the Soundcloud description, you said "I acquired the License and pay a Royalty to use the vocal." Was the vocal track from a different song, is this a cover version, or what?

Good stuff....

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3056036 07/27/20 06:15 PM
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Not sure how many of you are familiar with Vickie Genfan, but her unique guitar tapping style is amazing. I've been following her career for well over a decade.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3056042 07/27/20 06:30 PM
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https://soundcloud.com/user-898236994/sets/smooth-jazz

You will Survive

I will Survive

WE WILL SURVIVE

Its Song#1 on my SmoothJazz Playlist

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3056232 07/28/20 11:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Not sure how many of you are familiar with Vickie Genfan, but her unique guitar tapping style is amazing. I've been following her career for well over a decade.


Not being a guitar player, I had not heard of her. Great find, thanks!

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3056681 08/01/20 12:49 AM
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I have to login every 4 days even with the "Keep me logged in" box checked. Does this happen with everybody or just me?

Now back to the fun and the Original Question.

This is an interview today with Dr. Osterholm. Some here know about him because I posted a vid of him in a podcast with Joe Rogan in January in the KC forum thread plus a couple other things by him. He's a world renowned pandemic and infectious disease expert who gives lectures all over the world but over the last 4 months I was thinking he's a little too alarmist. I almost hate to post this because it's so flippin bad but this guy has been proven 100% correct so far and what he says about the future is not good at all especially for what we're most interested in.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/o...aign=circular&utm_medium=MARKETWATCH

I've been as guilty as anybody in thinking if we get a good vaccine fairly quickly like by November and they're already talking about how the big pharma companies can have several hundred million doses ready almost immediately and several billion throughout next year, we could be getting back to normal maybe a year from now. And, that is already bad enough because we were all hoping it could be by the end of THIS year. When he talks about people thinking about a vaccine like it's a light switch, wait a few months and all is good, I had to gulp because that's me. Know what a cold slap in the face by a dead fish feels like?

Maybe it turns out he's not correct about this. We can hope.

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3056725 08/01/20 01:27 PM
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On the other hand, I've seen two different experts say we could get things under control by October with some sacrifice.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/li...r-hotez-texas-open-football-15449746.php

https://coronavirus.medium.com/we-can-eliminate-covid-19-if-we-want-to-64abc91ccc1c


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3056726 08/01/20 02:01 PM
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We've got a hurricane aimed at us. That should complicate things. As the mobile and manufactured housing people make their way to public hurricane shelters, I see the number of cases growing exponentially. I hope I'm wrong.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3056804 08/01/20 10:38 PM
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I was thinking about you yesterday when I saw the news about the hurricane. I know you've been through it before but still.. be safe man.

Joe, as to your thought "with some sacrifice" it sure doesn't look like certain groups of people care about that even in Europe. Check out this story out of Germany:



Not a mask in sight. People were willing to put up with all the restrictions and lock downs because it was new and scary. Now, many think it's under control and they're basically fed up with all that. I'm not going to post a bunch of links but there are spikes in Japan, Australia, Germany and here too in places that had it under control like NY and NJ basically all over it seems.

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3056830 08/02/20 02:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
Not a mask in sight. People were willing to put up with all the restrictions and lock downs because it was new and scary. Now, many think it's under control and they're basically fed up with all that. I'm not going to post a bunch of links but there are spikes in Japan, Australia, Germany and here too in places that had it under control like NY and NJ basically all over it seems.

Bob

A pandemic doesn't care about anyone's politics...the sooner people realize that, the better.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
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At least the spikes in other countries seem containable. My impression is that while bad, they can step in and do something about those spikes and have been. It almost makes me feel good that there are protests against restrictions in other countries as well. Americans aren't the only ones being stupid about this. frown


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3056861 08/02/20 01:40 PM
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In spite of what you hear on the news, Germany's 10.1 % drop in GDP for the 2nd quarter is comparable to that of the USA. Headlines blare a 32.9% drop in GDP for the US but don't mention that this figure is annualized. So apples to oranges.. when you account for that, Germany's downturn is actually slightly worse. That's a glaring mistake, whether it is from ignorance or bias.

Last edited by pinkfloydcramer; 08/02/20 01:41 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
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Ask my sister-in-law, nephew and his fiance if you don't need to wear masks, that is if they survive.

Don't be stupid, wear the mask and protect yourself.

I read that about 3/4 of the survivors end up with damaged hearts and a great number of them will end up with premature heart attacks and/or strokes.

There is a risk vs. rewards ratio The risk of catching the virus is great, the rewards of not wearing a mask is minuscule.

Don't do what my in-laws did and believed a real-estate-salsesman, or faux news pundits, self-appointed preachers, flat-earthers, anti vaxxers, and political trouble-makers. Instead listen to the people who have dedicated their lives to studying contagious diseases and are learning more and more about this one every day.

If you get COVID there is no "undo". You can't go back and retroactively put your mask on. Wearing a mask is no big deal unless you are making it one. Catching COVID is a big deal whether you believe it is or not.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
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On the positive side, A UK based company has just developed a CoVID testing system that takes just 90 minutes to detect traces of the virus from just a simple saliva swab.

The prof. who invented it (?) was on the box this morning explaining just how it worked.

The fightback is beginning to offer results.

JohnG.


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
pinkfloydcramer #3057001 08/03/20 04:53 PM
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Originally Posted by pinkfloydcramer
In spite of what you hear on the news, Germany's 10.1 % drop in GDP for the 2nd quarter is comparable to that of the USA. Headlines blare a 32.9% drop in GDP for the US but don't mention that this figure is annualized. So apples to oranges.. when you account for that, Germany's downturn is actually slightly worse. That's a glaring mistake, whether it is from ignorance or bias.

Quite a few media sources tell the whole story. The comparison in unemployment rates is also interesting. The link is to an analysis piece by NPR, as are the quotes below. This story is also the top hit on Bing and Google if you search for info on the German drop in GDP, so it's not exactly hidden. One Fox News local affiliate story also said The economic harm from the virus is extending well beyond the United States. On Thursday, Germany reported that its GDP tumbled 10.1% last quarter. It was the biggest such drop since records began in 1970. And Mexico’s GDP sank 17.3% last quarter, also a record. Unlike the U.S. figures, those numbers are not annualized rates. But the main Fox News business outlet mentioned only the large US drop.

I don't think ignorance or bias accounts for the differences in stories, it's laziness. Whoever wrote the story for the Fox affiliate spent more time digging below the "If it bleeds, it leads" headline than the network itself. Obviously, NPR dug much deeper as well, and also moved that info closer to the top of the story; the Fox News story buried it below the fold. Anyway, here's what NPR said.

The decline in Germany's output last quarter, if calculated on an annual basis, would amount to 34.7%. That's a steeper drop than the annualized 32.9% plunge in the U.S. economy during the second quarter of 2020, the sharpest downturn ever recorded for American output. With more than 4.4 million known cases, the U.S. coronavirus infection rate of about 1.3% is more than six times what Germany's is.

Despite the economic contraction, Germany has not suffered a large loss of jobs. Unemployment for June stood at 4.5%, according the Federal Statistical Office, while the number of people employed fell by 1.4% compared with this year's first quarter.

"The extremely export-oriented German economy is likely to suffer all the more," analyst Böhme notes, "as important markets like the United States, as well as countries like Brazil and India, are not really getting the pandemic under control."


Also note that any annualized project is subject to change, depending on what happens in the 3rd and 4th quarters. FYI according to Deutsche Welle, GDP drop in the first quarter was 1.9%. 1Q drop in the US was 4.8%, so if you project for the rest of the year based on those stats, Germany will come out with a lesser loss in GDP than the US. But that's like saying the German Titanic was able to go two more miles than the USA Titanic before it crashed into an iceberg. There are a lot of variables between now and December 31.

Note that the US also did better than the Eurozone in general, but the reality is that there has been a world-wide economic collapse. There may be a difference of a percentage point or two here and there, but when the world isn't buying, the world isn't selling. The theory of a global economy was that if one country weakened, stronger ones would pick up the slack. It didn't take into account that the entire world would weaken simultaneously.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3057046 08/03/20 10:18 PM
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Right, the world's economies are the biggest problem now. When the Fed pumped over 4 trillion into the economy and Congress authorized another 2 trillion, that is nothing more than the Fed turning the crank on the printing presses. Nothing approaching this even accounting for inflation has ever happened other than WW2. All that money was supposed to buy us time to get this thing under control so we could reopen everything by now and that hasn't happened. The reasons why are irrelevant now.. All Congress is arguing about is another stimulus that will be in the 1-2 trillion range and after that, it's over. No more money coming from the Feds. That means the second stimulus will take us to Plan B but you won't hear anybody phrasing it like I am.

Plan B is based on the now obvious truth that a second Great Depression is worse than the virus so we're going to be reopening for real probably right after the election and that's it. It won't matter what the case count, hospitalizations or fatality numbers are. That's the reality we all will have to live with. Just my opinion of course but what other choice to we have? Millions of people are about to get evicted for non payment of rent. Sure, government can issue another rent moratorium but all that does is remove the burden from renters and place it on landlords who will go bankrupt, their properties go into foreclosure and we're back to 2008 with the need for more trillions to bail out the banks. Those trillions are simply not available so yes, I see another rent moratorium with help for landlords but only through the election. That would be getting the banks to put the missed mortgage payments on the back end of the loans but they've already done that so will they do it again? Whatever passes won't take effect until September so it's only 3 months to the end of November. Gee, wonder why they would do that? That's just long enough to give people the feeling they're being helped but they will also know they're going back to work and risk the virus or they're getting evicted just in time for Christmas.

This could get ugly but I don't see a choice in the matter. It will be very interesting to see how this is phrased during the lead up to the election. I'll bet both sides say don't worry, they have this great plan and once it's over the winner will say something like what I just wrote. You're going back to work and the schools will reopen, like it or not. If you refuse, no more handouts. Even this won't be all that great for the economy because there is still a large group of people who won't have jobs to go back to because those businesses are either shut down for good or they've severely cut back. The country will still be in a bad recession but that's better than a depression.

About the masks. I don't have a dog in this fight because I don't find wearing a mask a big deal but read this from the UK Daily Mail about Holland:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...es-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html

Bob


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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3057048 08/03/20 10:48 PM
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I suppose the US stock market has it all wrong, especially the NASDAQ and S & P

Theoretically , the markets are looking ahead 3- 6 months

Like I have said before, find a silver lining in that dark cloud

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3057050 08/03/20 11:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
About the masks. I don't have a dog in this fight because I don't find wearing a mask a big deal but read this from the UK Daily Mail about Holland:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...es-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html

Bob

I couldn't access the Daily Mail article, but I think the same info is in other articles I've read.

The quotes I've seen "from Dutch officials" are related to statments from Holland's scientists in their National Institute for Public Health and Environment, who are quoted as saying “There’s no scientific evidence for the efficacy of non-medical masks.”

Assuming I've reading the same source reporting that the Daily Mail article is from - this is a classic case of the spin at work when there is a lack of conclusive evidence. You could spin it as "there's no scientific evidence for the efficacy of non-medical masks" or, based on the same evidence, you could spin it as, "there's no scientific evidence for the non-efficacy of non-medical masks."

What's missing here are the key terms, "conclusive" or "scientific consensus" regarding either spin.

IMHO - quotes that spin things this way are pretty much garbage. There's no recognition of uncertainty, nor or the ongoing nature of research and inquiry, and there's a clear motive to support certain legislation, or lack thereof, by spinning things this way.

There are certainly studies that conclusively prove the efficacy of medical-grade masks. All the other masks are in some sort of continuum of efficacy and it's a much harder issue to study and conclude on. Why, then, use the lack of conclusive evidence or consensus as a springboard to support what is in effect, a conclusion that masks are not needed?

nat

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
GregC #3057053 08/03/20 11:37 PM
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Originally Posted by GregC
I suppose the US stock market has it all wrong, especially the NASDAQ and S & P

Nobody knows if they do or not. Realistically, so far the market has been propped up by the Fed and an unprecedented injection of liquidity.

Think of it this way...if you were fired from your job, but given enough money to maintain your current lifestyle for six months, you probably wouldn't start scrimping - you'd figure that surely, you'll find a new job within six months.

Optimistic market projections hinge on two assumptions: There will be a vaccine relatively soon, so the pandemic will come to an end; and when it does come to end, people will resume spending at the levels they did before.

I can come up with equally persuasive arguments that those assumptions could prove to be correct, or that they could prove to be hopelessly naive.

The silver lining in the dark cloud is that this whole thing may cause people to stop confusing wishful thinking with reality. Reality is the present; wishful thinking is the future...and "always in motion is the future." Just ask 2008.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3057059 08/04/20 12:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Originally Posted by GregC
I suppose the US stock market has it all wrong, especially the NASDAQ and S & P

Nobody knows if they do or not. Realistically, so far the market has been propped up by the Fed and an unprecedented injection of liquidity.

8.

Thats a factor but 1 of several.

The market is generally up due to quarterly earnings. Most co's are hitting their #'s.

Thats the classic reason for stock market growth.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
GregC #3057060 08/04/20 12:24 AM
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Originally Posted by GregC
The market is generally up due to quarterly earnings. Most co's are hitting their #'s.

Thats the classic reason for stock market growth.

But small businesses are having a great deal of difficult hitting their numbers, and 70% of the US economy is driven by consumer spending (which has been propped up as well).

At some point the opposing forces will collide, and the outcome is anyone's guess. A robust economy? Runaway inflation from the accumulated debt? A re-shaping of the economy that ends up being the same as the old one? A long, drawn-out recession? No one knows, and any speculation at this point has very little to support any conclusions.

There is no consensus that I can see of what the world will look like in a year. It goes anywhere from everything will back to normal, only better because of pent-up demand, to permanent economic damage from the closing of so many businesses, with lingering unemployment that puts a damper on consumer spending.

But fortunately I can tell you exactly what's going to happen!! It won't be as bad as the pessimists think, or as good as the optimists think. And there you have it.

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