Music Player Network
Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Page 10 of 14 1 2 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3043622 05/13/20 11:17 PM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Online Content
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
I think until (and if) a vaccine is available, the first to reopen will be playing a game of "russian roulette". I hope I'm wrong.

I think everyone hopes that Trump is right, Fauci is an alarmist, an even nastier second wave won't materialize, the virus won't spread further in middle America, and that it will turn out governments were overly cautious. But if those hopes are unfounded, we need a better backup plan than saying "ooops."

For the first time, every country in Africa now has cases of corona virus. In Brazil, COVID-19 was called a "rich person's disease" because it only happened to people who flew around to ski resorts and concerts and such, so poor people didn't have to worry. They have a lot to worry about now. I believe we're on the cusp of the virus ravaging poorer countries, and the "first world" is not insulated because it has accumulated wealth. The virus doesn't care what's in your bank account, because it's so highly contagious.

Oh well. At least I have a front row seat to the zombie apocalypse!

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3043640 05/14/20 12:42 AM
Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 94
Likes: 7
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 94
Likes: 7
Originally Posted by Anderton
Although the situation isn't as rosy as depicted in this LA Times article, the reality is that the Germans are simply better at not having a dysfunctional government, compared to the US, UK, and others.

There are two main reasons why this worked in Germany (and could have worked in the United States, had people on both sides of the aisle not been so focused on their political agendas). The first is a more streamlined, efficient, and less expensive way of compensating people who are unemployed so that a) they don't starve, and b) are available to go back to their same jobs as the economy improves. This keeps them from crossing over into poverty, encourages people not to switch jobs, ensures a ready labor force "on standby" that doesn't need to be retrained, and minimizes unemployment.

Second, Germany is a Federalist system where, like the US, the central government is accountable to 16 government bodies that are very much like our states. Initially, they were as disorganized as we were. But instead of plunging further into the chaos, blame, and disunity that happened here, they all started working toward being on the same page. Although Angela Merkel has made her share of missteps in the past, she rose to the occasion and represented a rational, unifying voice (she also has a scientific background, which turned out to be very useful in this situation so she could assess tradeoffs intelligently). Fortunately, Germany got it together, albeit just in time (and with mistakes along the way). So in a way, they had the best of both worlds - state's rights that avoided an overly-powerful government response, but like a good government response, acted with one voice based on what was in the best interest for the country's citizens.

...
But the bottom line is simple: Germany figured it out. We didn't, and now we're paying the price.
I agree with you about Germany's response they got a lot of things right. But we lose perspective if we compare Germany to the USA. The equivalent of the USA is the EU, and both have had their fair share of fractured responses from member states. Comparing the USA to the EU and Germany to New York, California or Florida puts things into perspective.

I know it's probably a lost cause, but I feel like our national conversation always gets muddled and confused when we don't make this distinction.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3043643 05/14/20 01:02 AM
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 34
J
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
J
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 34
I came across this documentary on the 1918 Pandemic, put together 10 or so years ago by the Dept of Health.

It reviews the effects of the pandemic, a lot of archival photos, black/white films, and an interesting segment on how a Scandinavian graduate student suggested that if the preserved remains of an infected individual from that time could be found, from there they might be able to help define the origin, and makeup of the 1918 influenza virus.

Over a period from the 50's thru the 90's a variety of pathologists, medical researchers with the help of the the remains of an individual buried in the arctic permafrost, finally established that genomic sequence - I found the film quite interesting....

We Heard the Bells – The Influenza of 1918 (1hour)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbEefT_M6xY

If you're on a airline, it's in the process of having catastrophic engine failure, even thought you might have a 'shiny new pilot', it would make sense for one of the crew-members to stick their head out in the cabin...." is 'Sully' on board?"

In this documentary, you see researchers working, or interviewed on the origin of these kind of viruses. You don't see many of the 'current players'...with one exception, there is at least one interview with a younger Dr. Fauci. Although it is recognized (as well as he) that his expertise does not relate to an economy, when it comes to wisdom, and an understanding of the power and potential devastation of this kind of coronavirus...

...you decide....

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Groove On #3043646 05/14/20 01:37 AM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Online Content
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
Originally Posted by Groove On
I agree with you about Germany's response they got a lot of things right. But we lose perspective if we compare Germany to the USA. The equivalent of the USA is the EU, and both have had their fair share of fractured responses from member states. Comparing the USA to the EU and Germany to New York, California or Florida puts things into perspective.

I know it's probably a lost cause, but I feel like our national conversation always gets muddled and confused when we don't make this distinction.

I get where you're going with this, but remember that the EU's genesis was as an artificial political and economic construct. The USA has grown organically for 250 years into what it is now. I can guarantee you that people from New York, Florida, and California feel more of a common bond - even if at times tenuous - compared to people from Greece, France, and Germany.

Where I feel the analogy is 100% accurate is that although Germany is smaller than the USA, it has a Federalist government where the "states" have a significant autonomy. Their challenge was that of the USA on a smaller scale: how to preserve the autonomy of the states, yet speak with one voice. Germany did not do well on this at first. It took a significant effort, and a unified leadership, to make that happen. It has not happened yet in the USA. Compared to Germany, each state is acting like a separate country.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3043652 05/14/20 02:54 AM
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 526
Likes: 15
Gold Member
Offline
Gold Member
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 526
Likes: 15
The thing I get from people in other places I post is they can't see that what we called normal pre-virus isn't going to come back, there is going to a new "normal" in the post virus world. How differ depends on how long it takes to come up with a vaccine or a cure and the changes the economic have which I think will be bigger than the effect of the virus. Even if a miracle cure came next week this has gone on long enough to of changed moving forward how people work, shop, socialize, and what they value in life.

I think the workplace is going to change a lot after this. Companies will see a lot of people are more productive working from home that the social atmosphere of the office chews up quite a bit of time. Companies will start micromanaging in the office place more. Even creative type work they will try to manage people more. I think the new normal is going to be accepting living under a microscope. I saw where one country has already started use software with their monitor ing to tell who going out when and if they have a mask on. This virus is going to have a big effect on life moving forward.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Docbop #3043660 05/14/20 05:03 AM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Online Content
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
Originally Posted by Docbop
I think the workplace is going to change a lot after this. Companies will see a lot of people are more productive working from home that the social atmosphere of the office chews up quite a bit of time.

I agree, I've been saying this since the lockdowns started. Today I read that Twitter will make working from home permanent for various employees. Note that long before the virus, many magazines had editors working out of their homes to cut expenses.

Quote
This virus is going to have a big effect on life moving forward.

When I was growing up, you could go to an airport's gate to meet people, take more than 3.5 ounces of toothpaste in your carry-on, didn't have to take off your shoes, didn't get patted down*, have to go through a metal detector, etc. Every time there's a crisis of some type, measures are put into place that remain. They may, or may not, help us weather the crisis the next time it occurs.


* To be fair, though, props to the sweet TSA agent who gave me a shoulder rub while patting me down, after I (jokingly) said "do you do shoulder rubs?" She could tell I had a tough day...and she made it better smile

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3043672 05/14/20 10:41 AM
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 21,307
Likes: 39
Triple Secret Banninated
20k Club
Offline
Triple Secret Banninated
20k Club
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 21,307
Likes: 39
Originally Posted by Anderton
* To be fair, though, props to the sweet TSA agent who gave me a shoulder rub while patting me down, after I (jokingly) said "do you do shoulder rubs?" She could tell I had a tough day...and she made it better smile
I'm sure that had something to do with your charm, Craig. Those of us who have met you in person would get this. smile

There are some threads on KC about the future for us musicians, and while I'm generally an optimistic person, I tend to agree with them. Unless there's a vaccine or other solution to this thing, playing music together, publicly, seems a long way off. People in those threads are talking about next winter's holiday gigs being unlikely. Yet, I've been seeing posts and listings for gigs here in Houston for June. I got a message last night from a friend in another band. They have a gig booked for August 8, and wanted to know if the band I have been playing with would be interested in sharing the bill. I told him that "my" band has been getting together but I haven't been playing with them yet so he should contact the other guy he knows in the band. Frankly, I'm scratching my head at all these guys, most older than me, who are talking about doing this. "My" band has been getting together for a few weeks, they keep sending me messages about the weekly get togethers, but I keep saying no thanks. They rehearse in the bass player's living room, and the rehearsals go from 2 to 7 or 8 (they call them jams and there's some social time. They do a lot, but I wish they were shorter anyway). Based on the Erin Bromage article, spending long periods of time indoors with people in a place with poor air circulation is the worst situation. As I said to my wife, "poor circulation? His house smells like dog!!" roll On top of that, they play loud so if the singer is the one infected, I'm sure he'd be spreading like crazy.

I don't know when I'll feel safe going back to that. It's too bad, too. They are great guys, the music was right in my wheelhouse, and I enjoyed paying with them. I wish I could.


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3043704 05/14/20 02:33 PM
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 255
Likes: 6
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 255
Likes: 6
Some good news for me. The outdoor restaurant that we've been gigging once a week at for 12 years and two owners is advertising we will return in late October. It's on a quay over a lagoon and when we play the deck is full so they put tables out in the parking lot. The lot is gravel with a sand beach facing the lagoon. I suspect for social distancing, there will be more tables with umbrellas in the parking lot 6 feet apart.

On the other side of the lagoon is a state park, the restaurant is on an island and other than the marina connected to the restaurant, it's the only thing on the island. So other than the road, it's like we are in a tropical paradise. Location, location, location.

There will be a new normal, but unless there is a vaccine it will not be like the old normal and it won't feel normal for a while. Carrying a phone in your pocket or having a computer at home was once weird, strange and abnormal.

Playing to backing tracks was once abnormal. When I started this in the 1980s, other musicians were saying "You're going to put musicians out of work with that computer" and I responded "I'm putting two musicians TO work with that computer." Now singles to trios playing with backing tracks are normal.

Like backing tracks, when the new normal arrives, we all need to adapt before it feels normal. The early adapters will have the best chances at being successful adapters.

Until then, Leilani and I are happy in isolation together, we're learning new songs, trying to anticipate what will make our future audiences happy. We've been doing this a long time and we trust our instincts to be right at least 4 out of 5 times.

Let's keep our eyes and ears open for the next phase of live entertainment and get a jump out of the starting gate.

Insights and incites by Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3043746 05/14/20 06:57 PM
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 6,226
Likes: 3
MP Hall of Fame Member
Online Content
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 6,226
Likes: 3

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
GovernorSilver #3043755 05/14/20 07:10 PM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Online Content
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
Originally Posted by GovernorSilver

I understand no one likes to be told what to do, but I think observing precautions to avoid spreading an extremely contagious disease doesn't fall under the category of defending liberty. It infringes on other peoples' liberty.

It's like a guy I knew who drove a motorcycle and refused to wear a helmet. He said it was totally his decision about whether he wanted to wear a helmet or not, and didn't affect anyone else. I said okay, that was fine with me - as long as he signed a document saying that my health insurance rates wouldn't go up because of him being hospitalized for his stupidity.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3043756 05/14/20 07:12 PM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Online Content
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
Playing to backing tracks was once abnormal. When I started this in the 1980s, other musicians were saying "You're going to put musicians out of work with that computer" and I responded "I'm putting two musicians TO work with that computer."

People gave me the same argument about synthesizers - "they'll put musicians out of work." My stock reply was "Who do think plays them - accountants?"

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
GovernorSilver #3043767 05/14/20 08:06 PM
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,134
Likes: 8
J
MP Hall of Fame Member
Offline
MP Hall of Fame Member
J
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,134
Likes: 8
Originally Posted by GovernorSilver

Oh, sh*t!! I've been saying we should "think" of reopening sooner rather than later because of the threat of a serious recession or depression but holy crap, not like this. Keep it tightly controlled and all that stuff. The Wisconsin election has been one of my examples, not much in the way of new cases precisely because it was pretty well controlled but to throw all the bars open at once? What was the court thinking?

Well, ok then my thoughts are with these partiers and I sincerely hope it works out but wow....what a test. Talk about having a bad feeling about something.

I guess now we're really gonna find out eh?

On a similar but it think better note, Musk won his battle with Alameda County and is reopening his Tesla factory so that is another test and it's certainly a better controlled one than throwing open all the friggin bars.

Bob


Hammond SK1, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3043776 05/14/20 09:13 PM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Online Content
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
I agree...baby steps. Check at each step whether things are working out okay or not. Throwing everything open at once has more to do with anarchy than "liberty."

True, societies can exist to repress, but they can also exist to promote the common good.

The paradox is that people who want to open everything up now think they're going to speed up the economic recovery. But people who know a lot more about pandemics than I do say that premature opening, with a concomittent increase in death and illnesses, will set the economy further back than if the lockdown had been maintained longer.

As I've said so many times...there are no good solutions. I used to say we had to choose the less bad solution, but I may have to change that to the less horrific solution.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Jazzmammal #3043824 05/15/20 04:25 AM
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 6,226
Likes: 3
MP Hall of Fame Member
Online Content
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 6,226
Likes: 3
Originally Posted by Jazzmammal
Originally Posted by GovernorSilver

Oh, sh*t!! I've been saying we should "think" of reopening sooner rather than later because of the threat of a serious recession or depression but holy crap, not like this. Keep it tightly controlled and all that stuff. The Wisconsin election has been one of my examples, not much in the way of new cases precisely because it was pretty well controlled but to throw all the bars open at once? What was the court thinking?

Well, ok then my thoughts are with these partiers and I sincerely hope it works out but wow....what a test. Talk about having a bad feeling about something.

I thought of one of my favorite bartenders. He was at the Pfister hotel in Milwaukee when I spent a weekend in 2014 to attend an Octatrack workshop, which was led by a gentleman who regularly hosted production workshops (Maschine, Ableton Live, etc.) for the inner city youth. One of the rare bartenders who are just like in the old movies - made killer cocktails, a knack for getting bar patrons to talk to each others, great personality, etc.

I see though that Milwaukee quickly jumped on enacting its own restrictions in line with the state order.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3043854 05/15/20 01:18 PM
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 191
Likes: 1
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 191
Likes: 1
Originally Posted by Anderton
[quote=GovernorSilver]

It's like a guy I knew who drove a motorcycle and refused to wear a helmet. He said it was totally his decision about whether he wanted to wear a helmet or not, and didn't affect anyone else. I said okay, that was fine with me - as long as he signed a document saying that my health insurance rates wouldn't go up because of him being hospitalized for his stupidity.

That guy has been me for 45 years East, West, North and South, perhaps you can explain how a helmet is going to help if a car rams me at 80mph? I suppose it makes people who don't ride feel better?
And BTW, I'm planning my ride to Wisconsin right now!

Last edited by Greg Mein; 05/15/20 01:29 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3043860 05/15/20 02:15 PM
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 255
Likes: 6
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 255
Likes: 6
I think there is a line between what people do that is potentially harmful to themselves, and what is likely to be harmful to non-consenting others.

For example smoking. Smoking cigarettes in your own home or outdoors harms no one but yourself and others who consent to be with you. Smoking in an airplane is likely to harm the health of others on that plane (or restaurant or office, etc.).

Drinking alcohol is potentially harmful to the drinker, but as soon as the drunk person gets behind the wheel, it's likely to be harmful to others.

If it's likely to be harmful to non-consenting others, I agree with restrictions. Liberty should give you the right to do whatever you want, but your liberty stops where the next person's liberty begins.

Possibly spreading a deadly disease is likely to be harmful to others, which is why I agree with baby steps. I know social distancing isn't any fun, I miss gigging, I miss going out to dinner, and I miss going to the grocery store without masks, gloves and rubbing alcohol. But I don't miss being healthy, able to breathe deeply so I can sing and play the sax or wind synth whenever I want.

I read an article in I think "The Guardian" about an opera singer living in Paris. She ended up with scarred lungs that might take two years to heal - if they ever heal at all. She survived but can't sing due to shortness of breath and weakness.

My next gig is late October, and I'm picking up contracts for next winter season. I'm OK with that. I'll see how Wisconsin, Georgia, Texas and other states do and decide what my next steps will be.

So to the brave COVID beta-testers - good luck - I hope I am erring well on the side of caution and you will be OK.

Insights and incites by Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Greg Mein #3043970 05/15/20 10:54 PM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Online Content
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
Originally Posted by Greg Mein
Originally Posted by Anderton
It's like a guy I knew who drove a motorcycle and refused to wear a helmet. He said it was totally his decision about whether he wanted to wear a helmet or not, and didn't affect anyone else. I said okay, that was fine with me - as long as he signed a document saying that my health insurance rates wouldn't go up because of him being hospitalized for his stupidity.

That guy has been me for 45 years East, West, North and South, perhaps you can explain how a helmet is going to help if a car rams me at 80mph? I suppose it makes people who don't ride feel better?
And BTW, I'm planning my ride to Wisconsin right now!

I'll let people who know more about it than I do give the stats and details.. Here is a more comprehensive report. But what you're proposing is a worse case scenario. If I'm in a car and get rammed at 80 MPH, I probably won't make it either. From everything I've seen, and the nurses I know who've had to handle the result of motorcycle accidents, helmets aren't guaranteed to keep you from dying. But, they often lessen the extent of injuries, and can in fact prevent fatalities.

But that has nothing to do with my point...as I said, your not wearing a helmet is fine with me. My point is that accidents make insurance rates go up for everybody. There are plenty of stats that show helmets do reduce, or at least lessen, rider injuries and fatalities...as GEICO (a company that sells motorcycle insurance) says "a helmetless rider involved in an accident is three times as likely to suffer a brain injury as a motorcyclist wearing a helmet."

People who decide to ride without a helmet don't exist in a vacuum, because the consequences of getting injuries or deaths that could have been avoided, affect people other than themselves. People who drive drunk, text while driving, do makeup, whatever is proven to lead to more injuries or deaths, are all raising the cost of vehicle and health insurance. (Riding without a helmet is only one example. It's front of mind only because I've known people who've been killed in motorcycle accidents, and nurses who've tried to put motorcyclists back together again.)

Hence my comment that if people who ride motorcycles without helmets are willing to take responsibility for paying their medical expenses, they can do whatever they want, because their freedom is not going to restrict my freedom. I shouldn't be forced to pay so that others can avoid the discomfort of wearing a hot, bulky helmet. (On the other hand, having been rear-ended twice by people who were texting while driving, I would just prefer that they be drawn and quartered, preferably in a public place.)

But frankly, I'm surprised you trust other drivers enough not to wear a helmet. You seem like a pretty level-headed guy, but drivers don't pay anywhere near enough attention to motorcyclists and unfortunately, that includes you. Although it's true that the majority of motorcycle accidents occur by a collision with a stationary object, that doesn't let motorists who crash into motorcyclists off the hook.

Take care of yourself, and watch for idiots. No matter how careful you are, other people might not rise to the same standard.

1 member likes this: dboomer
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3044022 05/16/20 02:55 AM
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 11,360
Likes: 69
10k Club
Offline
10k Club
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 11,360
Likes: 69
Even if helmets didn't save lives (which they most obviously do based on decades of data as per Craig's link and many others), think of it as a courtesy thing. Even with the extreme collisions, the helmet may make the difference between some poor emergency worker getting to pick up a somewhat whole head versus the trauma of the alternative. As a former ED nurse I've had reports from paramedics to confirm this indeed helps them.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3044030 05/16/20 04:02 AM
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 191
Likes: 1
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 191
Likes: 1
As a guy who's been riding for most of my life in lots of places with lots of people I could write a book on the crap I've seen out there. I've had the helmet discussion/argument ad nauseam with folks that likely have a lot more real world experience in the matter than most here. I don't see this as the right place for it and I'll just leave it at that.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3044073 05/16/20 02:06 PM
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 21,307
Likes: 39
Triple Secret Banninated
20k Club
Offline
Triple Secret Banninated
20k Club
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 21,307
Likes: 39
A buddy of mine from high school died riding his motorcycle a few years ago. AFAIK, he wasn't wearing a helmet (he was always "too cool" for that kind of thing) and it was a single vehicle accident. I think he somehow lost control and went off the road. frown

Back on the topic, I thought this episode of the Al Franken podcast with epidemiologist Larry Brilliant had some great info about Where We Go from Here. (Note that there's some political talk, Al leans a *little* to the left and so does his guest, so be forewarned. If you don't like it or them, don't listen.) There's some great info about what the U.S. did wrong, what we should have done, and what we should be doing now, including a bipartisan proposal they are trying to get through congress funding contact tracing and isolation for those who may have been in contact with the virus. It sounds like a great plan to me. The sooner we start doing what they propose, the sooner we can start really opening things up and having people be somewhat confident they can go back out again.


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3044083 05/16/20 02:42 PM
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 3,755
Likes: 10
MP Hall of Fame Member
Offline
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 3,755
Likes: 10
Back in the days when I was riding, I wore a helmet (legally required) with a clear faceplate (not required). This was because I wore contact lens, and even with sunglasses on the lens might just get blown out. My vision was 20/400 without the lens, not a good situation. And yes, I DO know what it feels like to lose the lens while driving. I was driving my second Corvette one night with top down and the lens did get blown out. Fortunately, I had kept my old glasses in the glove compartment, otherwise I would have needed to have someone pick me up and drive me home (about 50 miles, I was near Atlantic Beach at the time).
I do feel like, for the cyclist with normal vision, that it is actually safer in SLOW traffic (like 20 mph downtown) to not have on the helmet, because it restricts the field of vision; and there are advantages to having better peripheral vision because of someone coming out from an alley or side street or other opening.

Biggest thing I learned about auto drivers in the 25,000 miles I spent riding a bike was that there were a bunch of them that were TOTALLY situation unaware, and would claim that they couldn't see the cyclist. Kind of ridiculous, at that time, one would be put under the jail for killing a young child on a bike, but couldn't see a 200 pound adult on a motorcycle. The defensive driving learned on my bike has been good for me even now that I don't have one (I do still have a convertible, my 1996 BMW 328 that I've had since 2000, have both tops for it).

The old "redneck rule" "The vehicle with the biggest tires has the right of way" is still observed by way too many people. Punishment for texting while driving is nowhere near what it should be (like 5 years in jail the first time if no one is killed, otherwise life in my opinion). I spent a month in Germany, where there is no such thing as a "no fault" accident, vehicles didn't have cup holders reachable by the driver, and drivers were expected to keep their attention on driving. Couldn't pay me enough now to drive in the states where one can expect a fair percentage of drivers to be stoned.

Tie this in to the virus: The past few weeks driving in NC has probably been considerably safer than normal, because of the lesser number of vehicles on the highways.


Howard Grand|Hamm SK1-73|Kurz PC2|PC2X|PC3|PC3X|PC361; QSC K10's
HP DAW|Epi Les Paul & LP 5-str bass|iPad mini2
"Now faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen."
Jim
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Greg Mein #3044118 05/16/20 06:29 PM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Online Content
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
Originally Posted by Greg Mein
As a guy who's been riding for most of my life in lots of places with lots of people I could write a book on the crap I've seen out there. I've had the helmet discussion/argument ad nauseam with folks that likely have a lot more real world experience in the matter than most here. I don't see this as the right place for it and I'll just leave it at that.
As I said, I think you're a pretty level-headed guy, and that last post proves it. I will admit my real-world experience is limited to people dying, so you can probably understand why that colors my thinking. I saw my first motorcycle accident when I was 8, and it's something that even 63 years later, I can't unsee.

I apologize for offending you, that was not the intention. It sounds like you have the kind of experience that gives you the confidence that you won't get into an accident. Just keep your eye out for idiots to keep your safety record intact, and we're good.

However, I still feel that people who text while driving should be drawn and quartered smile

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3044122 05/16/20 06:42 PM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Online Content
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
Back to Covid-19...it seems there's some tentative good news. In several of the hardest-hit areas, new cases are leveling off or declining. Unfortunately cases are still increasing in smaller population centers. However, since they are smaller, the odds are any spreading will have less dramatic results.

So now the big question is whether that trend can continue in the face of many states/localities lifting constraints on mobility. It's a gamble, and like all gambles, the outcome cannot be predicted with certainty.

Still, fewer new cases overall is something to be happy about. For the first time, the curve of new infections in the US is starting to flatten just a tiny bit.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3044189 05/16/20 11:20 PM
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 191
Likes: 1
Senior Member
Offline
Senior Member
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 191
Likes: 1
Originally Posted by Anderton
Just keep your eye out for idiots to keep your safety record intact, and we're good.

However, I still feel that people who text while driving should be drawn and quartered smile

I'll do my best for sure! There are a lot of bikers out there who've grown old with plenty of years and miles over me, life is always a crap shoot.

As far as the covid-19 thing I'm keeping an eye out for any further headlines about Wisconsin. If I don't see any, it'll be the "news" I'd expected. It's actually not far from here but I'm not able to get there because we've got grand-kids for the weekend due to parents that are in need of a break!

Last edited by Greg Mein; 05/16/20 11:23 PM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3044297 05/17/20 05:40 PM
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 21,307
Likes: 39
Triple Secret Banninated
20k Club
Offline
Triple Secret Banninated
20k Club
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 21,307
Likes: 39
We could stop the pandemic by July 4 if the government took these steps

Quote
There is already a bipartisan plan to achieve this; we helped write it. The plan relies on frequent testing followed by tracing the contacts of people who test positive (and their contacts) until no new positive cases are found. It also encourages voluntary isolation, at home or in hotel rooms, to prevent further disease spread. Isolated patients would receive a federal stipend, like jurors, to discourage them from returning to workplaces too soon.

But our plan also recognizes that rural towns in Montana should not necessarily have to shut down the way New York City has. To pull off this balancing act, the country should be divided into red, yellow and green zones. The goal is to be a green zone, where fewer than one resident per 36,000 is infected. Here, large gatherings are allowed, and masks aren’t required for those who don’t interact with the elderly or other vulnerable populations. Green zones require a minimum of one test per day for every 10,000 people and a five-person contact tracing team for every 100,000 people. (These are the levels currently maintained in South Korea, which has suppressed covid-19.) Two weeks ago, a modest 1,900 tests a day could have kept 19 million Americans safely in green zones. Today, there are no green zones in the United States.
Imagine that! By July!!!

Here is a similar plan that is also by a bipartisan group of experts. I haven't seen if there's any overlap in those behind each, but the plans seem similar in the concepts of testing, contact tracing, and encouraged quarantine. One of the benefits of this one is that by quarantining people in hotels who can't isolate at home for any reason, you help the hotel business a bit as well. (This is the plan discussed by Larry Brilliant in the podcast I liked to above.)

To Open the US Economy, We Need a Contact Tracing Workforce of 180,000

There's also a link there to an NPR article about it.

I truly think that if these plans are supported, we can climb out of this mess. It will literally take an act of Congress, however. I'm planning on pushing my reps.


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3044347 05/17/20 09:43 PM
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,134
Likes: 8
J
MP Hall of Fame Member
Offline
MP Hall of Fame Member
J
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,134
Likes: 8
Why do I keep getting kicked out of the forum every few days? Does this happen to everybody? And yes I always check the box "keep me logged in".

Anyway here's another opinion from an expert about herd immunity from the UK:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20..._source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

This opinion has been proposed quite a lot but it hasn't made the mainstream media. All we hear is constant bad news, we're opening too soon, people will die, we still need to stay locked down, etc. I've been writing about this off and on for about 6 weeks now and still think it's a likely possibility. No proof of course but it seems logical to me.

Another article in the Telegraph is about the infamous modeling issue:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technol..._source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

This is about the same guy who had to resign because he violated his own recommendations about staying at home to visit his hot married girlfriend.

Then there is still the issue about how to count Covid deaths. Colorado just revised their count downward from 1,150 to 878, almost 25% because of things like one stupid guy who died of alcohol poisoning who also tested positive. Covid had nothing to do with his death. Another thing I've written about a few times.

https://www.cpr.org/2020/05/15/colo...virus-deaths-are-reported-to-the-public/

Then there is the way total cases are simply added up with no detail as to what goes into that count. In California 470 active cases are prisoners and 84 are staff. That's 554 cases. Ok, sad for them but what does that have to do with us? The prisoners are already isolated and the staff are easily traced.

My opinion about doctors is they're are truly wonderful and very committed people and I admire them very much. They are totally focused on their patients, want the very best for them and will do anything they can to protect them. This is obviously a great thing but this also makes them extremely cautious so of course they say we have to lock down and protect everybody as much as humanely possible. That is clearly their job but it's a myopic view when compared to the overall big picture. Doctors are not concerned with that, they're concerned about their patients not the cold and difficult calculation of comparing a total lock down to the risk of a second depression or the effects of continued high unemployment on the overall mental health and risks of drug abuse, family abuse and all the other bad things than can happen as a result of everything being shut down.

This includes something else that isn't talked about a lot and that's the lack of routine but important medical care for people. Routine followups for all kinds of chronic diseases, preventative testing, regular dental checkups that I need for example. I've been on a periodontal regimen for 15 years in order to save my teeth. I need to have regular periodontal cleaning every 3 months and I'm past due now. I can't be the only one on this forum with those issues and gum disease can put bacteria in the blood that can cause heart issues. I also had my annual physical at the VA changed to a telephone consult. Fine, but what about all the blood and other lab work I usually have done? It's always been ok but why is that part of my annual in the first place? To catch something new that never showed up before. Me and everybody here could be sitting on a potential serious problem nobody knows about. I've read articles talking about how the numbers of new cancer cases has plummeted. Is that because we've done such a great job of preventing cancer? Of course not, it's all the regular cancer screening that is not being done right now and that costs lives and/or serious medical issues too. Is living through chemo or multiple surgeries any different than living through possible long term issues or lung scarring from Covid? I would guess it's worse. I could go on and on. This virus as bad as it is simply must be folded into our everyday lives and we'll learn to live with the new precautions and accept the risks like everything else we could die from.

I've said from the beginning, lets wait until May. Well, it's May.

Bob


Hammond SK1, Kurzweil PC3, Korg Pa3x, Roland FA06, Band in a Box, Real Band, Studio One, too much stuff...
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3044352 05/17/20 10:22 PM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Online Content
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
I think a problem for the public is the vast array of totally conflicting messaging coming from all corners. Deaths are underreported...deaths are overreported...herd immunity will work...herd immunity only works if 50%-60% of the people are infected, but we can't know without testing whether people are infected...anyone who wants a test can get a test...there are nowhere near enough tests...only old people die...kids are getting Covid-19-related complications.

And politicians give their own conflicting messages, usually for partisan reasons. The CDC can't agree on stuff. The White House itself constantly shifts assessments, from it's not going to be a big deal, to lots of people are going to die, that we have to isolate, that we can't afford to isolate, etc. etc. China did a great job. China was sick and twisted. It came from bats, it came from a lab, it escaped from a lab on purpose, it was designed specifically as a bio-weapon. And of course, the new age people say it's the earth's revenge against how badly we've been treating it.

The only theory for which I can't find any support is of course the correct one - that extra-terrestrials, working in conjunction with China, deposited swarms of the virus in ukuleles, and the virus crawls out of the ukuleles at night to infect people. C'mon, you saw all those ukuleles in January 2020 at NAMM, just before the virus hit big-time. And where were most of those ukuleles made?

CHINA!!!

And where is the world's largest ukulele factory?

WUHAN!!!

I rest my case.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3044353 05/17/20 10:24 PM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Online Content
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
But seriously...what's happening now is we're all participating in a giant beta test. I'll let you know in six months how it turns out.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3044369 05/18/20 12:40 AM
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 6,226
Likes: 3
MP Hall of Fame Member
Online Content
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 6,226
Likes: 3
John Hopkins University of Medicine statement on herd immunity:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-ou...ainst-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception

I don't want to make fun of other people's hopes for herd immunity vs. COVID-19, and I don't support public shaming of people not wearing maeks. OTOH, I can't support the idea of controlled voluntary infection.

Last edited by GovernorSilver; 05/18/20 12:44 AM.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
GovernorSilver #3044370 05/18/20 12:47 AM
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
OP Online Content
MPN Advisory Board
MP Hall of Fame Member
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 8,828
Likes: 69
Originally Posted by GovernorSilver
John Hopkins University of Medicine statement on herd immunity:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-ou...ainst-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception

I don't want to make fun of other people's hopes for herd immunity vs. COVID-19, and I don't support public shaming of people not wearing maeks. OTOH, I can't support the idea of controlled voluntary infection.

That is a truly chilling article...particularly because it certainly seems like it's by someone who knows how math works.

Page 10 of 14 1 2 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Moderated by  Anderton 

Link Copied to Clipboard
Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.4