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OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
#3035491 03/28/20 05:23 PM
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The debate about re-starting the economy, the extension of cases by flattening the curve vs. getting it over with faster and just assuming more people will die, etc. has one glaring omission: it assumes there is a good solution. Unfortunately, sometimes in life there is no good solution, only less bad ones. In this case, any solution is basically a choice among various worst-case scenarios.

What complicates matters further is the extraordinary amount of uncertainty. We can't say "Well, we should choose this option - it will produce the following results, which we judge as being not as bad as the other options," simply because we have no concrete idea what the actual results will be from any of the options.

If society is to remain cohesive, significant sacrifices will have to be made at all levels. And I don't mean sacrifices like Apple letting people use Logic Pro X free for 90 days. In a recession (and I've lived through several of them), the economy never actually stops, but it slows way down. There are people still making money and spending money. Will the motives and results of those activities need to shift? I'm NOT framing this as a political issue ("socialism is the answer") or a religious one ("we are our brother's keeper"). I'm framing it as what it means to be a human being. Is it survival of the fittest, or is it a willingness to do whatever is necessary to maintain the fabric of society?

Or...maybe they're not mutually exclusive. Real-world example: My career got started because of a severe (albeit not catastrophic) recession. I had worked with a company that made effects, but that market was dissipating. To pay the bills I wrote "Electronic Projects for Musicians" at a time when people didn't have the money to buy effects, so they were open to making their own. Fast forward 40 years...many people in this industry reference that book as being what helped start their companies. Overall, my lack of personal wealth led eventually to the creation of significant wealth in society at large. Of course, I was just trying to pay my bills, I didn't have lofty ideas that was I was doing would eventually change the industry in some way. But it goes to show that "unintended consequences" can be beneficial, not just problematic.

What can we do now that ensures when this is all over, we're in a better, not worse, place?

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035496 03/28/20 05:56 PM
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A topic I've been trying to stay on top of as the world rapidly goes through changes.

Among the considerations is "collateral damage" if we move to quickly to "business as normal" and the virus spreads rapidly (all assumptions at this point).
The overload on the health care system could mean that folks with other conditions are unable to obtain the care they need in a timely fashion.
The supply chain problems with respirators/ventilators etc., are another factor.

It's very complex, I have no answers. All I can do at this point is exercise caution. I've limited my exposure, plenty to do at home. I am favoring a big chain store (Krogers - Fred Meyer) in no small part because I can walk there and they have disinfectant wipes available at the entrance/exit.

I already had the habit of bringing my own cloth shopping bags. New habit of not touching my face until after using the wipes at exit is in place. There is no way to be certain that one won't walk around a corner and right into a place where somebody recently sneezed into the open air. A mask may reduce that avenue of infection but you would need a professional respirator (rather than a one-size-fits-all mask) to obtain full protection from that avenue of infection. It may be important to immediately wash or "quarantine" your newly purchased items since there is no way to know who has touched it.

Short answer - I have no idea what is going to happen!!!! Be SAFE everybody!!!! Cheers, Kuru


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035497 03/28/20 06:03 PM
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Making predictions is only a means to get the thinking process going, not a way to pre-visit the future in most cases. That said, here's the things I'm thinking will take on immense significance after "the new normal" begins to take shape.

1 - income disparity will become so acute that what we now call "welfare" will become more like a right, not an unreliable and fickle, stigmatizing handout.

2 - the government will realize - no matter the politics - that government has to be yet more involved in healthcare. Again, healthcare will become more of a right than a product for sale.

3 - were young people radical in the 60s? You just wait. A new radicalism among the young is coming that will shock and shake the foundations of power and politics. Climate change will be the center focus, but the general feeling that the power brokers of the older generation have made a hopeless mess of everything will be practically universal among the young. And not just a feeling, but a burning conviction with violence not far behind.

4 - kids are going to have to, and will start on their own, growing up faster. The luxury of extended adolescence into one's 30s is going to disappear.

5 - if the economics gets bad enough, the next big headline will be about a new crime wave of massive proportions.

Good things to come?

I see families all over walking the neighborhood, biking, being together. I see people learning that civilization is fragile, that community is an absolute necessity, that the values of things like ever-increasing wealth, being the strongest and baddest, self-centered independence, and the like, pale besides the values of community, compassion, creativity, and caring.

It's the "live together or die separately" thing, no question.

nat

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035522 03/28/20 07:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
What can we do now that ensures when this is all over, we're in a better, not worse, place?

Certainly we are in for more uncertainty. No one knows where the economy and society will be at the end of the year. Fundamental assumptions about the good society and the good life may well be interrogated. As Nowarezman alluded, values like "rugged individualism" might take a hit. There may be other changes we cannot contemplate.

I love your story about creating possibilities and then an industry with an article which met a need. It's a salutary example of what an individual can do.

To me, civilization is about relationships and relationships are about trust. We can virtualize processes and markets at faster rates. We can develop new systems of trust using technologies like blockchain to mediate previously unmediatable relationships. That's abstract. Practically we can relate more actively to our loved ones and business partners with that extra measure of compassion this situation requires. That's job one. Job zero, is to stay resilient, trusting that the evolving crisis will reveal to you the qualities within you, which were waiting for just such a time to be expressed.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035529 03/28/20 08:31 PM
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One possible good is the simultaneous use of technology to reach far, but the improvement of local and national connections. Do we need to fly as much? Why not use video for many things? Simultaneously, what options are available locally now? One thing I see is that local musicians in the North Bay are no longer competing with national or international caliber artists doing shows in San Francisco or Oakland. Right now the best cello player in Sonoma County is the best available cello player in the world where I live. What would a better local community do for music? I suspect a lot. I think we need manufacturing to have a much greater local and national presence. Too much has been spread out too far in global supply chains, taking jobs and taxes with it. If the jobs, taxes and skills returned, much could be done to improve the places we live.

The biggest questions, as already suggested have more to do with how an entire society decides that the economy should run and who it should benefit and how much.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035530 03/28/20 08:34 PM
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Well Nowarezman skirted politics, but the post stays because there aren't any value judgements or boosterism of "one side or the other" involved. They're simply possible predictions.

I was watching a series of travel videos by a guy on YouTube, who had been to almost every country in the world. He was coming to the conclusion that generally, happiness was NOT proportional to wealth, and that some of the poorest societies were also the happiest. Apparently human interaction, community, cooking, and the arts brought people far more happiness than BMWs, yachts, and mansions.

Personal perspective: There was a run of years where I made a lot of money. I didn't really get to enjoy it, because almost all of it went to taking care of a dying, estranged wife who was sick for over a decade, and paying the mortgage on a house that's now in foreclosure. I'm living in an inexpensive investment condo that my daughter owns. When Gibson fired me along with a zillion other people, my severance was 3 weeks. I drive a 20-year-old used car. My HVAC is over 20 years old, and will need to be replaced soon.

I've never been happier in my entire life.

When my estranged wife died, and I could no longer pay the mortgage on what was supposed to be a dream house and investment for the future, I realized just how little money I actually needed to live. I realized that the universal currency isn't money, it's time - whether you're rich or poor, an hour lasts exactly 60 minutes. It's up to you to decide how to spend those 60 minutes. Some people are much better at spending time than others, and the best time-spenders aren't necessarily the richest folks. That's because a lot of rich people think that money is worth more than time. It isn't.

Because I don't need to earn to earn so much, I don't need to work so much. Which means I have more time to play music, and play in the kitchen with my girlfriend. I take more time to call people. I talk to my daughter just about every day, so I have a front-row seat to a fascinating and intelligent human being. I can sleep in, or stay up late, if I want. Some days I make money, some days I don't.

Do I want a fancy car? No, it costs more, the insurance is more, repairs are more, registration is more. How about a fancy house? The mortgage is more, maintenance is more, property taxes are more, and either you have to spend more time taking care of it (which you can't, because you have to make the money to maintain it) or pay someone else to do it.

Do I need a gym membership? Walking is free, and I get to say hi to the neighbors, or take a walk with a friend. There are plenty of swimmable lakes around here for long swims, and the condo has a pool.

Do I need a giant curved-screen TV? There's not enough worth watching to justify it, and if there's a really spectacular movie, I'll go to the iMax theater and be in a place where other humanoid bipeds are cheering, laughing, having tears well up, and getting emotionally involved.

What about eating out? Frankly, you can make healthier food at home...which you can do if you have time, rather than spending that time making enough money to eat out.

I'm building back my pre-Gibson career, slowly but surely. I expect I won't be broke much longer, and my income will ramp up. BUT I am not going to make ramping up income the goal. That will simply be a by-product of my learning to spend time more wisely, on things I love to do, that don't make as much money but are a helluva lot more fun.

Maybe this will happen to more people when we return to "normal," whatever that is.

Last edited by Anderton; 03/28/20 08:42 PM.
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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035537 03/28/20 09:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Well Nowarezman skirted politics, but the post stays because there aren't any value judgements or boosterism of "one side or the other" involved. They're simply possible predictions.

I was watching a series of travel videos by a guy on YouTube, who had been to almost every country in the world. He was coming to the conclusion that generally, happiness was NOT proportional to wealth, and that some of the poorest societies were also the happiest. Apparently human interaction, community, cooking, and the arts brought people far more happiness than BMWs, yachts, and mansions.

Personal perspective: There was a run of years where I made a lot of money. I didn't really get to enjoy it, because almost all of it went to taking care of a dying, estranged wife who was sick for over a decade, and paying the mortgage on a house that's now in foreclosure. I'm living in an inexpensive investment condo that my daughter owns. When Gibson fired me along with a zillion other people, my severance was 3 weeks. I drive a 20-year-old used car. My HVAC is over 20 years old, and will need to be replaced soon.

I've never been happier in my entire life.

When my estranged wife died, and I could no longer pay the mortgage on what was supposed to be a dream house and investment for the future, I realized just how little money I actually needed to live. I realized that the universal currency isn't money, it's time - whether you're rich or poor, an hour lasts exactly 60 minutes. It's up to you to decide how to spend those 60 minutes. Some people are much better at spending time than others, and the best time-spenders aren't necessarily the richest folks. That's because a lot of rich people think that money is worth more than time. It isn't.

Because I don't need to earn to earn so much, I don't need to work so much. Which means I have more time to play music, and play in the kitchen with my girlfriend. I take more time to call people. I talk to my daughter just about every day, so I have a front-row seat to a fascinating and intelligent human being. I can sleep in, or stay up late, if I want. Some days I make money, some days I don't.

Do I want a fancy car? No, it costs more, the insurance is more, repairs are more, registration is more. How about a fancy house? The mortgage is more, maintenance is more, property taxes are more, and either you have to spend more time taking care of it (which you can't, because you have to make the money to maintain it) or pay someone else to do it.

Do I need a gym membership? Walking is free, and I get to say hi to the neighbors, or take a walk with a friend. There are plenty of swimmable lakes around here for long swims, and the condo has a pool.

Do I need a giant curved-screen TV? There's not enough worth watching to justify it, and if there's a really spectacular movie, I'll go to the iMax theater and be in a place where other humanoid bipeds are cheering, laughing, having tears well up, and getting emotionally involved.

What about eating out? Frankly, you can make healthier food at home...which you can do if you have time, rather than spending that time making enough money to eat out.

I'm building back my pre-Gibson career, slowly but surely. I expect I won't be broke much longer, and my income will ramp up. BUT I am not going to make ramping up income the goal. That will simply be a by-product of my learning to spend time more wisely, on things I love to do, that don't make as much money but are a helluva lot more fun.

Maybe this will happen to more people when we return to "normal," whatever that is.

That is a fuc#ing AWESOME post!!

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035542 03/28/20 09:43 PM
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Where I work is considered a critical supplier of avionics and communications equipment for the government/military so I've been there every day. A couple weeks ago they sent some folks home in a displays manufacturing area and last week they closed down a whole manufacturing building at the main site to have an outside company come in for a thorough cleaning, that was a weird sight.

I actually wonder how many people have already had the illness and just wrote it off as common cold/flu as far back as New Years? My wife and I traveled to the East coast back then and we both contracted a cold/flu like illness that seemed to linger longer than it normally should have.

Reality sometimes bites and the only possible chance of containing this thing was probably a week before anyone knew it existed and even though I hope everyone is taking the proper precautions, I'm sure we all know that the only ones we have actual control over are ourselves. This thing is not from some alien planet though and it's well known that viruses mutate and develop new strains. In that regard it's nothing new and I doubt that anyone has ever been able to hide from a cold virus their entire life.

I take it as a positive sign that bodies aren't being bulldozed into mass graves because we're at least three months into this thing and if the survival rate wasn't extremely high that's what would be happening.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035555 03/28/20 11:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Well Nowarezman skirted politics, but the post stays because there aren't any value judgements or boosterism of "one side or the other" involved. They're simply possible predictions.

Thanks, Craig for the consideration. Sorry to have skirted...maybe you kind of know me a bit after posting back and forth for a long time (my other name on the boards was nat whilk). I am a bit scared of the future, I'll admit. Not for myself particularly - my past already represents the vast majority of my life. But I do air my concerns to see what other people think and feel. It's a tough time to know what to think...

nat

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035599 03/29/20 01:56 PM
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I don't agree with the "herd immunity" of getting back to work. Of course there are good arguments for it, namely it won't last as long, and the recession will not be as severe (this really helps the super-rich and hedge fund managers who own 80% of the stock in the USA).

The down side is that the hospitals and medical profession will swamped be way over capacity. Doctors/nurses/etc. will get the disease and/or quit (both have already happened) because of the lack of protective equipment. When the hospitals are full and the ventilators and other supplies are limited, the doctors will have this terrible choice to make --- I will try to save patient A's life and patient B, C, D, and E, "I sentence you to death".

But "flattening the curve" will minimize those problems and many more lives will be saved, including the medical professionals.

The down side of that is a prolonged recession. The upper 5% will take the biggest hit and the poorest of the poor will suffer more than the rest of us.

I don't care what the death rate is, if it happens to me or my wife it's 100%.

As Craig pointed out, time is the real currency of our lives. I will not take a chance of shortening my life to keep the rich in their gilded mansions.

Fortunately, Leilani and I have done what almost no government has done, we live below our means. The mortgage is paid of, the only debt I have is minimal car payments and we have a buffer savings account. We don't buy things on credit that we can't afford - period. That includes saxophones and guitars smile

I've lost all my work from St Pat's day through mid October, and I don't know if they are going to be cancelled or not. I had half a dozen cancel before St.Pat's as well February, March, and April are our big money months, where we make half our annual income. At least 7 months unemployment.

I'm not eager to get back to work. I'll continue to self-isolate. I happen to really love being alive, and my self-preservation instincts are in the alert mode right now.

A recession may make life hard, but death makes it impossible.

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Bob "Notes" Norton
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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3035613 03/29/20 04:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
I don't care what the death rate is, if it happens to me or my wife it's 100%.
Yes. The priority should be to minimize the number of people getting it. The second to make sure adequate care is available for those who do,

Quote
As Craig pointed out, time is the real currency of our lives. I will not take a chance of shortening my life to keep the rich in their gilded mansions.
Well, I understand what you're saying, but that's a sweeping generalization and does sound political. The people that I'm seeing get hurt the most are small business owners and hourly wage earners. They are the backbone of this economy, because the USA is a consumer-driven country.

I hesitate to tar any group of people with the same brush. Rich people who do good are like Auto-Tune - when used intelligently, you don't know it's being used. I've seen several rich people up close and personal. If they're well-known, everybody wants something from them. I've known a few who were extremely generous, but they never let it be known because they didn't want to be hit up all the time. I've also known some who managed to avoid the limelight altogether. Some of them inherited money, or came into money as a one-time thing, like from selling a company or licensing. They didn't live a life any different than you or me, and to all outward appearances, were middle class in terms of house, car, etc. (e.g., VW Passat instead of Porsche). They used their wealth to fund start up companies, give to foundations, contribute to charities with which they were aligned, etc. They thought that was a good use of money.

In any group of people you're going to find David Geffens but you'll also find others behind the scenes, who realize that the more money they have, the more they do to create change.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035617 03/29/20 04:56 PM
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It's all statistics until someone you know or a family member becomes infected.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035621 03/29/20 05:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
I was watching a series of travel videos by a guy on YouTube, who had been to almost every country in the world. He was coming to the conclusion that generally, happiness was NOT proportional to wealth, and that some of the poorest societies were also the happiest. Apparently human interaction, community, cooking, and the arts brought people far more happiness than BMWs, yachts, and mansions.
<snip>
Do I want a fancy car? No, it costs more, the insurance is more, repairs are more, registration is more. How about a fancy house? The mortgage is more, maintenance is more, property taxes are more, and either you have to spend more time taking care of it (which you can't, because you have to make the money to maintain it) or pay someone else to do it.

Do I need a gym membership? Walking is free, and I get to say hi to the neighbors, or take a walk with a friend. There are plenty of swimmable lakes around here for long swims, and the condo has a pool.

Do I need a giant curved-screen TV? There's not enough worth watching to justify it, and if there's a really spectacular movie, I'll go to the iMax theater and be in a place where other humanoid bipeds are cheering, laughing, having tears well up, and getting emotionally involved.

What about eating out? Frankly, you can make healthier food at home...which you can do if you have time, rather than spending that time making enough money to eat out.

I'm building back my pre-Gibson career, slowly but surely. I expect I won't be broke much longer, and my income will ramp up. BUT I am not going to make ramping up income the goal. That will simply be a by-product of my learning to spend time more wisely, on things I love to do, that don't make as much money but are a helluva lot more fun.

Maybe this will happen to more people when we return to "normal," whatever that is.

Awesome, insightful post. The whole thing is a great post, although I've shortened it here. As many of you know, I've been sort of living like this my whole life. I've never owned a new car, rarely have owned a new computer (I am still running Pro Tools on a Mac Pro 1,1 because it works great still), never bought a giant house so that it would be easy to make mortgage payments, and buy most of my camera equipment used. Used furniture, used whatever. Doesn't matter. Don't eat out much, and when I do, I make it count by eating something fantastic, not a bunch of garbage.

The whole point is not of frugality, but to this to create additional time and experiences (and for most of us, creating art), creating new opportunities and trips and time with friends and family.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035623 03/29/20 05:26 PM
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Getting back to the future...

I do think this will impact the way companies structure their businesses with white-collar workers. Think of all the pollution and waste that goes into people commuting in cars every day. Some companies are afraid of telecommuting, because they think employees will goof off. However, most music magazines I deal with now have most, if not all, of the editorial staff working from their homes. Originally this was done as a cost-cutting measure, but it turns out when they're at home, they have their studios nearby. This is great for reviews.

Also, creativity and office hours don't necessarily go together ("turn your creativity switch on at 9 AM, and turn it off at 5 PM"). A lot of my best ideas come when taking walks. The companies to whom I consult benefit a lot from my working at home. Working when the creative juices are flowing gets more done, in less time. Since I bill by the hour, I cost less as a result.

Of course there are some situations where people need to work in a centralized location, but do they really need to be there all the time? The five-day work week is a fairly recent development. Ford introduced it because there was more automation coming into their factories, and the company decided that giving people an extra day off would increase productivity and help the economy, because people would have more free time to spend on going to movies, go shopping for clothes, or whatever. The five-day work week stuck because it didn't impact the company's bottom line at all. Some would argue it improved the bottom line. There's also no reason not to have flex time. Gibson didn't mind that I usually came in around 10 instead of 9, because I stayed until 6 or 7. That last hour or two when people weren't around was tremendously helpful in terms of getting projects done without interruptions. The bottom line was that I was more productive with that schedule, and companies aren't going to complain if you do something that ends up making you more productive.

With increasing automation, expect to see four-day work weeks become the norm. Some companies have experimented with the idea. The most recent study was from a company in New Zealand. Bottom line was productivity didn't increase, but it didn't drop, either. Also, during busy periods, some employees had to do five days to get things done. But overall, the results were that people who were able to manage their lives better were happier and better employees.

Just-in-time inventory control prevents companies from tying up capital in things sitting on a shelf, but as soon as anything happens to the supply lines, JIT is a liability. "Inventory" might not be such a dirty word when this whole thing is over.

The Gig Economy is here, and it's real. However workers are in a precarious position, and generally have few or no benefits. I could easily see something like a re-invention of the union for gig economy people, where everyone contributes to a pool in return for benefits like health insurance, and where there are negotiations for working conditions. Some gig economy employers are good about this, some drive their people mercilessly. There needs to be a balance.

I guess what I'm saying is that a societal event with the magnitude of the corona virus will force people to re-examine their lives. When Aunt Joan dies in a hospital, how many people are going to wish they would have had more time to spend with Aunt Joan? With reduced income, how many people will find that living within their means is far better than living beyond their means? I think that when the dust settles and the last ventilator is turned off, there will be far-reaching changes. We'll see.

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Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035634 03/29/20 05:41 PM
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There may also be an uptick in people's general concern for their health. There can be a downside medically to being on a respirator, even after recovery. We may a lot of people with a fresh appreciation that their life was saved, but also sobered by a new fragility that they cannot undo. I do hope that you are right Craig, and that we see a lot more people doing the calculation on what is truly important and what that means. I am in white collar America, and I know many who are thrilled with the time back from soul-less commutes, and the joy of having dinner every night with the people they love. I've worked out of my home for 25 years and occasionally an office and productivity is the least of the concerns. Silicon Valley is adjusting well. It is a small sample, and one that is generally well suited to WFH, but most companies still have most employees report to an office everyday. It is really sales that has been long-term WFH, as a matter of course. Companies figured out that it didn't make sense to desk sales forces that call on customers way back in 2000.

But for our young business development people (age 23-27), they really miss the office. They are generally outgoing people, and often live alone, renting a room, or with roommates. They prefer to work in the office by a big margin. Our engineers? They are probably thrilled if they can get the quiet and isolation they need.

That last bit is an most important bit - do you have a space that you can have as focus space, and not have work taking up your kitchen, or bedroom. We've always picked a place to live that had an extra room, converted a garage - something to make sure that exists. But that is not easy for everyone, yet makes working from home far more pleasant.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035637 03/29/20 06:01 PM
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Yeah, I've worked at home for about 25 years. I built out a little space in the garage to get the business stuff out of the regular living areas. It may only be 20 steps from my small office through the kitchen door and into the living room, but it can feel like "oh, man, great to be in here for a bit". A change of pace and environment can happen even in the confines of a small house.

The big TV location is a crucial thing. If your arrangement is open where the dining, kitchen, and some sort of family/living/den room is all open, the TV dominates 3/4 of the entire living space in terms of noise and limitations to other activities. Can be a real source of major irritation. A pair of headphones might just save a marriage smile

nat

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035640 03/29/20 06:20 PM
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An 'Open for Business' scenario, and steps towards, easing travel restrictions in the 'clean' states...in an effort to kick up economy is likely to backfire – Big Time.

The inevitable is these cleaner states will start to have increasing levels of cases, and then limited medical products and supplies now being needed by a smaller number of states with high numbers of cases, will now be diverted from states where their situation is currently 'on fire'. The National economy may not really restart, and more shovelfuls of $$$ may be needed to tossed to the populace.

Right now there has finally been a scramble to try to get ventilators, etc., into production. Big names like GM are being thrown around, however, these fairly high tech products that they have not made before, have to be designed, engineering, put into some sort of production line, quality tested
.... in 3-5 weeks ??? ...Huh!!!

It's like someone saying...hey, just bought one of those neat new private jets. It's new stuff. They are able to design, and put these together in a couple of months....wanna go for a ride ???

The return to employment of Musicians, artists will be a slow climb. First their employer's...clubs, bars, restaurants,venues will need to open and find people to 'buy their products', to get some cash flow before 'filling the stage'. People in generally would have to financially recover past the basics, to the point where they have expendable cash.

And, ultimately the check comes due. All the federal and state expenses being 'fired' at the economy will need to be 'covered'. It may be that one of the only ways to cover that is to claw back parts of the 2017 tax cut that mostly benefited the large corporations, and the highest income folks. Is higher tax rates really that bad?
I don't know. But looking back to the late 50's and into the 70's, tax rates were as high as 90% at the top, sliding down lower over the years.

In those times (of higher taxes), there was a 'chicken in every pot', the government funded the Eisenhower (Interstate) highway system, cold war defense systems, middle class folks were able to buy homes, save, pay a reasonable amount for college educations, etc.
....and, as for musicians, there were lots of gigs...in the mid '60's I was in a trio..Blue Satin Tuxes...lots of work

Found this link that shows Federal tax rates all the way back to 1862 – Wow !!
https://files.taxfoundation.org/legacy/docs/fed_individual_rate_history_nominal.pdf

More on the positive side. For those that might not have seen this; how 'gig' Musicians can apply for unemployment, and also listing a large variety of Grants that are being made

Billboards Resource listing for Musicians and Gig Workers:
https://www.billboard.com/articles/...-resource-guide-music-professionals-help

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Nathanael_I #3035645 03/29/20 06:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Nathanael_I
That last bit is an most important bit - do you have a space that you can have as focus space, and not have work taking up your kitchen, or bedroom. We've always picked a place to live that had an extra room, converted a garage - something to make sure that exists. But that is not easy for everyone, yet makes working from home far more pleasant.

If you're self-employed and file a Schedule C, a dedicated place for business - and only business - is essential to claim a deduction for a home office. Generally it's based on a percentage of square footage for the house, with that percentage of your rent or mortgage being pre-tax deductible.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Nowarezman #3035666 03/29/20 10:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Nowarezman
Yeah, I've worked at home for about 25 years. I built out a little space in the garage to get the business stuff out of the regular living areas. It may only be 20 steps from my small office through the kitchen door and into the living room, but it can feel like "oh, man, great to be in here for a bit". A change of pace and environment can happen even in the confines of a small house.

After I retired from a government career (lastly with the FAA), I worked a few years as a very part time contractor to the FAA, on the same projects I was working on when I was with the G'u'mm'nt. Most of what I was doing for them (as a contractor) was reading and writing, and occasionally going to meetings or on field trips with the contractor who was building the stuff for the FAA. I tried sprawling out on the living room couch when doing things like reviewing test procedures and results, but I kept getting distracted. I excavated a little space in the studio control room (there was already a comfortable desk with a computer there) and that's where I "went to work." It really helped my concentration when I went to a little used part of the house to work, and I could walk away when I was done or wanted to take a break.

Today I loaf all the time, so it doesn't matter where I do it.


Quote
The big TV location is a crucial thing. If your arrangement is open where the dining, kitchen, and some sort of family/living/den room is all open, the TV dominates 3/4 of the entire living space in terms of noise and limitations to other activities.

My house is from the 1950s and has real rooms - not all with doors, but with enough walls so you can tell if you're in the living room, dining room, family room, or kitchen. I was looking for a new home in southern California for a while, and was turned off by the newer homes there (I didn't want another 60 year old house) that didn't have enough walls. I don't have a big TV, but the one I have is in the living room, opposite the couch, between the "listening" stereo speakers. Makes sense to me.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035669 03/29/20 10:44 PM
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Mike, I have one of those sorts of houses too. It's a tiny thing, though, under 1000 sq. feet. But the rooms are discrete rooms.

On the other hand, our back yard is a decent size.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035736 03/30/20 01:06 PM
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We have a 900 square foot cottage built in 1950. It has 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. One of the bedrooms is my office.

I don't worry about the TV, as we unhooked the cable and took down the antenna mast in 1990. I live in a fringe area so there is zero reception (I never even bought a digital converter). Actually I quit watching when I worked on cruise ships from 86 to 89.

After this is over, I'm going to patronize local businesses as much as I can.

For the small businesses that hire us regularly, I'll gig for free until their business picks back up. They've been good to me through the years, I'll have the time, so it seems the right thing to do. I've had a house gig in a restaurant, one day a week for 12 years running. They are like family to me.

Notes


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The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035744 03/30/20 02:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
I think that when the dust settles and the last ventilator is turned off, there will be far-reaching changes. We'll see.

I hope so.


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3035760 03/30/20 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
I don't worry about the TV, as we unhooked the cable and took down the antenna mast in 1990.

Aha! So that's why you write intelligently.

Quote
For the small businesses that hire us regularly, I'll gig for free until their business picks back up. They've been good to me through the years, I'll have the time, so it seems the right thing to do. I've had a house gig in a restaurant, one day a week for 12 years running. They are like family to me.

I get where you're coming from. One of the magazines I write for had to cut way back, so I offered to write my column for free.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3035887 03/31/20 02:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
<...snip...>
I get where you're coming from. One of the magazines I write for had to cut way back, so I offered to write my column for free.

It's wise to help the hand that feeds you when they need the help.

--- on the original "Now What?" question ---

Here is a thought. IF (and that's a big IF) the people who recover from COVID have been shown to have an immunity from re-infection AND not pass the disease on, perhaps they should be the first to go back to work.

Notes


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The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3035917 03/31/20 04:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
Here is a thought. IF (and that's a big IF) the people who recover from COVID have been shown to have an immunity from re-infection AND not pass the disease on, perhaps they should be the first to go back to work.
There would be major benefits to having a disease-free workforce. Presumably, some will be able to do what they did before, but it would also free up a lot of gig economy people to be the ones who go buy food and such for those who are still confined. It would really help with the whole social distancing thing.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3036579 04/03/20 06:14 PM
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https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bu...hange-us-after-the-COVID-19-15174489.php

Quote
The coronavirus pandemic is already considered the story of this generation, and it will have lasting impact. Many of those changes involve connected technology. I’m going to focus on three areas — work, education and entertainment — that I think will be changed significantly by the pandemic.


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Notes_Norton #3036596 04/03/20 07:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
Here is a thought. IF (and that's a big IF) the people who recover from COVID have been shown to have an immunity from re-infection AND not pass the disease on, perhaps they should be the first to go back to work.

Notes

A lot of people, myself included, have never stopped going to work because it simply has to be done. Short of dying or becoming infected I'll continue to put on my big boy pants and do that.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Greg Mein #3036622 04/03/20 08:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Greg Mein
A lot of people, myself included, have never stopped going to work because it simply has to be done. Short of dying or becoming infected I'll continue to put on my big boy pants and do that.

The added Italics were mine, because Greg makes a crucial point: if you get infected, you don't want to infect other people. I visited China during the SARS epidemic, and as soon as I stepped off the plane, they checked me for an elevated temperature. I wasn't travelling to an area that was a hot spot, and I was coming from the US, where outbreaks were minimal. Still, they were checking everyone.

But this also brings up an important point about the importance of having tests available. People need to know whether or not they have Covid-19, so they don't expose other people. For example, truckers need to know they're not being exposed to people working at truck stops. If all the truckers stop going to work, "eating" will consist of fishing, hunting, and finding out what vegetation in your area is edible.

Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3036699 04/04/20 12:54 PM
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True. All the people who are still working and putting themselves at risk are today's heroes and heroines.

Please let me express a big "Thank you" and heartfelt wishes that you do not contact this plague.

They should all get high priority for COVID tests and protective gear. And it's not only truckers, it's farmers, food processing plants, sanitation workers, grocery store personnel, and anyone else in an essential business.

Perhaps being unemployed makes me one of the lucky ones.

Notes


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The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: OK, the Corona Virus Isn't Going Away. Now What?
Anderton #3037077 04/06/20 04:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
What can we do now that ensures when this is all over, we're in a better, not worse, place?


Teach people that when they see people in Asian countries wearing a mask, it's not to protect THEM but to help prevent the spread to OTHERS.

Why the Surgeon General, CDC and WHO was advising against it until yesterday is...baffling, but as a person that received multiple comments for wearing a mask at the grocery store the last time I was there a few weeks ago, I've got to say...


WEAR A MASK

in public.


The amount of people that clearly don't understand based on what I see on Facebook and Twitter is astounding. It would have made such a big difference if the government had simply said "wear a mask, or fashion one out of a shirt/hankerchief/whatever if you go out around people" back in February.


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