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There's a 90% chance that one of my older cousins (mid-60s) has COVID-19 now. No testing available to him though and we're kind of concerned for a few reasons health-wise for him.

Yamaha: Motif XF8, MODX7, YS200, CVP-305, CLP-130, YPG-235, PSR-295, PSS-470 | Roland: Fantom 7, JV-1000

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Former: Emu Proformance Plus & Mo'Phatt, Korg Krome 61, Roland Fantom XR & JV-1010, Yamaha MX61, Behringer CAT

Assorted electric & acoustic guitars and electric basses | Roland TD-17 KVX | Alesis SamplePad Pro | Assorted organs, accordions, other instruments

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From a philosophical standpoint, it's an interesting time for considering the principles of utilitarianism. Utilitarianism basically stands for the idea that societal decisions are made based on the greatest good for the largest number of people. A Utilitarian will take the position that the suffering and loss of a few is justifiable if it benefits the many. A Utilitarian might also consider the relative usefulness of different members of society, assigning a lower value, for instance, to people over a certain age who may have been useful in the past but now are largely just a weight on the system.

 

Other ethical lines of thought de-emphasis the greatest good for all and give greater emphasis to the rights of individuals.

 

I confess to be inclined towards utilitarianism. What I think confounds the analysis here, and what I think is could be the major flaw in arguments like the one Zephonic states a few posts above, is the fragility of the health care system, and what it would mean to lose that lynchpin in the social safety net. For instance, if you take a very utilitarian approach and say "we're going to send people back to work even knowing that X% will die," what repurcusssions does that have for the health care lynchpin? Suppose you're a doctor or nurse and you know that, given societies larger policies, you have a 1 in a thousand chance of dying from the Covid virus? Who among us would continue to do a job in which we have a 1 in a thousand chance of dying? I would not. So what happens when our health care workers stop working, or stop being able to work, or stop breathing? It seems to me therein lies the abyss.

Gigging: Crumar Mojo 61, Hammond SKPro

Home: Vintage Vibe 64

 

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"Societal decisions" implies something making decisions for a society. We can't have corporations and the free market doing what they want while times are great, only to have an iron hand step in times of crisis...can't really have it both ways, I wouldn't think. Our system rolls the dice that we won't have have a crisis requiring actual leadership in a central sense, other than war of course (we are very well able to handle that). We rolled, and we lost. Now it's up to state and local governments to do what they can, and the problem is that supply chains are dispersed, and people not in a lockdown elsewhere can still travel to your area. We have NYC people still coming here to FL.
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B) send the over 50s back to work to keep the economy moving. apparently they would gladly risk their health and lives to hold up the economy for future generations.

Actually I keep wondering if we should do the opposite. Last time I looked, mortality rates for those at age 50 from Covid-19 was under 1/3 of 1 percent, and from there it kept falling until at age 20 it was statistically insignificant. Although there are individual cases that widely make the news, it's hardly worse than the flu for this age group.

 

Are we seniors so selfish that we can't isolate ourselves without dragging the entire country down with us?

 

This question would be easier to answer if testing kits were widely available for workers in assisted care facilities and such. But it's something I keep thinking about while I'm bored out of my mind at home.

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Can someone explain something to me;

 

I posted this link in a new thread previously cause I thought the content was important and especially relevant to the US and the UK because of their attempts to use mitigation in reaction to the pandemic.

The thread was pulled. But I dont know why.I used the term " dumb arsed politicians" (should have said dumb-arsed leaders) but the content of the link is no more' political' than anything on this thread.

 

So why dont moderators generally give the poster a reason when they act in a summary way?

The "moderators" (me) have attempted to make it clear in several places that this forum is not for politics. The sticky thread at the top of the forum marked READ BEFORE POSTING: Politics and Religion" explains why in more depth.

 

The thread in question had gone in that direction. :facepalm::Python:

 

I understand there are many aspects of this situation that are relevant to the KC community. That's why we have this thread for the corona virus discussion, and I'm definitely allowing a few boundaries to be stretched here and there given the seriousness of the situation and the many benefits of us being able to share our thoughts and experiences in this strange time; however, I would appreciate it if we could not start multiple threads on the subject in KC... :idk:

 

...and please - keep the damn politics out of it. :hand::argue::nono:

 

FWIW, there actually is a place on MPN where more social-oriented discussion is encouraged - that would be Dr. Anderton's forum.

 

dB

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:keys:==> David Bryce Music • Funky Young Monks <==:rawk:

 

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Years later, someone will assume the title thread is about a synth
Ah, yes, we then-old-timers can regale the kids about how many modulation options were available in the Covid-19, and they'll roll their eyes and return to the built-in emulation in their space ships.

Samuel B. Lupowitz

Musician. Songwriter. Food Enthusiast. Bad Pun Aficionado.

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I confess to be inclined towards utilitarianism. What I think confounds the analysis here, and what I think is could be the major flaw in arguments like the one Zephonic states a few posts above, is the fragility of the health care system, and what it would mean to lose that lynchpin in the social safety net. For instance, if you take a very utilitarian approach and say "we're going to send people back to work even knowing that X% will die," what repurcusssions does that have for the health care lynchpin? Suppose you're a doctor or nurse and you know that, given societies larger policies, you have a 1 in a thousand chance of dying from the Covid virus? Who among us would continue to do a job in which we have a 1 in a thousand chance of dying? I would not. So what happens when our health care workers stop working, or stop being able to work, or stop breathing? It seems to me therein lies the abyss.

 

You say there is a major flaw in my argument but I don"t really understand your explanation here?

 

I"m simply saying that the economic devastation caused by mass unemployment may well be greater than the devastation caused by Covid-19, based on the latest numbers.

 

I don"t follow your thoughts here:

 

Suppose you're a doctor or nurse and you know that, given societies larger policies, you have a 1 in a thousand chance of dying from the Covid virus? Who among us would continue to do a job in which we have a 1 in a thousand chance of dying?

 

Is the assumption here that healthcare workers will continue to work when there"s a lockdown, but stop working when there is no lockdown? I fail to see why that would be the case.

 

I don"t know what the general statistical risks are for hospital workers, or how Covid-19 (or any contagious disease) affects those risks.

I do know a few doctors and nurses, and I doubt they would let this stop them from carrying out their duties, although I certainly don"t suggest all healthcare professionals share that commitment.

 

With all that, I still don"t see how any of this exposes a flaw in my argument.

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Like I said before, the devastation of mass unemployment in the USA may well be far greater than that caused by Covid-19.

It"s a catch-22, and I"m glad I don"t have to make decisions of that magnitude.

 

It would appear that 81% of those infected experience mild illness, 14% severe illness, and 5% critical.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/

 

So in the US (population around 300 million), left unchecked, that would work out eventually to about 40 million severe and 6 million critical cases, and no medical help. (Nobody believes the medical system could deal with any scenario close to that.)

 

The damage from the unemployment and isolation will also be severe, and will also kill people, but I just don't see what choice we have. Isolate only the at-risk? Can ordinary people really manage whatever procedures that'd be required to protect them when everyone they depend on is getting infected?

 

I'm inclined to test trust the public health experts that are saying our least-worst option is to lock things down and deal with the consequences as best we can.

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From a philosophical standpoint, it's an interesting time for considering the principles of utilitarianism. Utilitarianism basically stands for the idea that societal decisions are made based on the greatest good for the largest number of people. A Utilitarian will take the position that the suffering and loss of a few is justifiable if it benefits the many. A Utilitarian might also consider the relative usefulness of different members of society, assigning a lower value, for instance, to people over a certain age who may have been useful in the past but now are largely just a weight on the system.

 

Other ethical lines of thought de-emphasis the greatest good for all and give greater emphasis to the rights of individuals.

 

I confess to be inclined towards utilitarianism. What I think confounds the analysis here, and what I think is could be the major flaw in arguments like the one Zephonic states a few posts above, is the fragility of the health care system, and what it would mean to lose that lynchpin in the social safety net. For instance, if you take a very utilitarian approach and say "we're going to send people back to work even knowing that X% will die," what repurcusssions does that have for the health care lynchpin? Suppose you're a doctor or nurse and you know that, given societies larger policies, you have a 1 in a thousand chance of dying from the Covid virus? Who among us would continue to do a job in which we have a 1 in a thousand chance of dying? I would not. So what happens when our health care workers stop working, or stop being able to work, or stop breathing? It seems to me therein lies the abyss.

 

I don"t want to get this thread shut down so I"ll be careful here. I"m usually a fan of hard logic, but all I"m going to say is that if that utilitarian logic is used to determine the usefulness to society of a person, musicians and artists would be the first to go, possibly before older people. Is a person"s value truly tied into their career, age, or disability status? Really think about that for a bit.

 

Ever heard of Soylent Green?

Yamaha: Motif XF8, MODX7, YS200, CVP-305, CLP-130, YPG-235, PSR-295, PSS-470 | Roland: Fantom 7, JV-1000

Kurzweil: PC3-76, PC4 (88) | Hammond: SK Pro 73 | Korg: Triton LE 76, N1R, X5DR | Emu: Proteus/1 | Casio: CT-370 | Novation: Launchkey 37 MK3 | Technics: WSA1R

Former: Emu Proformance Plus & Mo'Phatt, Korg Krome 61, Roland Fantom XR & JV-1010, Yamaha MX61, Behringer CAT

Assorted electric & acoustic guitars and electric basses | Roland TD-17 KVX | Alesis SamplePad Pro | Assorted organs, accordions, other instruments

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Assume you have it, have already had it, or are going to get it and behave accordingly.

 

Beth is working from home until she gets her test results back and I've been watching the process. She functions as a hospitalist in a 325 bed hospital 45 minutes southeast of Nashville. Their ER is one of the busiest in the state. It's not uncommon for them to admit 50 patients on any given night through the ER. Patients who are not admitted by a doctor go to the hospitalist. There are two of those and one nurse practitioner on nights. While she prefers rounding and putting her hands on patients, she's usually stuck in the office fielding calls from the floors regarding the ER admissions and writing orders. This part she can do from home and she's worked four nights here.

 

The doctor who Beth was exposed to got her results back yesterday and was negative. We should have hers today and expect them to be negative as well. Beth is pretty convinced that what we suffered in mid-February was Covid, though there's no way to prove it. It was a brutal week and we're still coughing.

 

So my wife is faced with a decision. If she's negative she wants to go in to work. She's from a large military family and it's in her nature to want to be on the front lines. That was the term she used last night. She feels useless not being on the front lines. If we had Covid, she may be ok antibody-wise but we're not 100%, sure about that. If she's negative and we had influenza then she runs the risk of being exposed. She'll use precautions as supplies allow, of course. But they're discharging patients before knowing their Covid status only to discover later that they tested positive. That should frighten you. Everybody is suspect for Covid. Everybody.

 

My own workplace, the sleep center, has decided to stop consults in the office on Monday 3/30.But there are patients scheduled for sleep studies and they want me to come in as soon as Beth gets the all-clear. They've suspended cpap use as all that does is spray the bedroom with droplets. But I'd still be messing around within a foot of patient's heads and faces. I have my own personal N95 and there are gloves and protective glasses at the lab. The cleaning process, though, is lax in my opinion and we don't have to proper disinfectant products on hand. I don't think spraying Lysol around is going to cut it.

 

And who the fuck needs a sleep test right now? Stay your ass at home. It's elective. It can wait. Management is taking care that day shift isn't exposed. Screw the night techs. It's always been like this.

 

I'm sorry for the rant but last night I had a bit of a meltdown thinking about Beth going in to work because I know she'll be balls deep in whatever is happening.

 

Assume you have it, have already had it, or are going to get it and behave accordingly. This can't be said enough.

9 Moog things, 3 Roland things, 2 Hammond things and a computer with stuff on it

 

 

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Like I said before, the devastation of mass unemployment in the USA may well be far greater than that caused by Covid-19.

It"s a catch-22, and I"m glad I don"t have to make decisions of that magnitude.

 

It would appear that 81% of those infected experience mild illness, 14% severe illness, and 5% critical.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/

 

So in the US (population around 300 million), left unchecked, that would work out eventually to about 40 million severe and 6 million critical cases, and no medical help. (Nobody believes the medical system could deal with any scenario close to that.)

 

The damage from the unemployment and isolation will also be severe, and will also kill people, but I just don't see what choice we have. Isolate only the at-risk? Can ordinary people really manage whatever procedures that'd be required to protect them when everyone they depend on is getting infected?

 

I'm inclined to test trust the public health experts that are saying our least-worst option is to lock things down and deal with the consequences as best we can.

 

 

The key here, of course, is "left unchecked". That is not happening. Nobody's advocating a "do nothing" course of action.

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From a philosophical standpoint, it's an interesting time for considering the principles of utilitarianism. Utilitarianism basically stands for the idea that societal decisions are made based on the greatest good for the largest number of people. A Utilitarian will take the position that the suffering and loss of a few is justifiable if it benefits the many. A Utilitarian might also consider the relative usefulness of different members of society, assigning a lower value, for instance, to people over a certain age who may have been useful in the past but now are largely just a weight on the system.

 

Other ethical lines of thought de-emphasis the greatest good for all and give greater emphasis to the rights of individuals.

 

I confess to be inclined towards utilitarianism. What I think confounds the analysis here, and what I think is could be the major flaw in arguments like the one Zephonic states a few posts above, is the fragility of the health care system, and what it would mean to lose that lynchpin in the social safety net. For instance, if you take a very utilitarian approach and say "we're going to send people back to work even knowing that X% will die," what repurcusssions does that have for the health care lynchpin? Suppose you're a doctor or nurse and you know that, given societies larger policies, you have a 1 in a thousand chance of dying from the Covid virus? Who among us would continue to do a job in which we have a 1 in a thousand chance of dying? I would not. So what happens when our health care workers stop working, or stop being able to work, or stop breathing? It seems to me therein lies the abyss.

 

I don"t want to get this thread shut down so I"ll be careful here. I"m usually a fan of hard logic, but all I"m going to say is that if that utilitarian logic is used to determine the usefulness to society of a person, musicians and artists would be the first to go, possibly before older people. Is a person"s value truly tied into their career, age, or disability status? Really think about that for a bit.

 

Ever heard of Soylent Green?

 

Just to be clear, I wasn't trying to be an advocate for ulitarianism. The point of my post was to try to supply some philosophical framework to these discussions. The kinds of ideas we're hearing now resonate in discussions about ethics that have been going on almost throughout recorded history.

 

If I recall from the movie, Soylent Green was made from dead people, but there wasn't a connection between production of Soylent Green and any policy of making people die faster. Granted, in that movie, people were dying pretty fast for a lot of reasons, but no one was saying "we've got to kill more people so we can make more Soylent Green." Or do I have that wrong.

Gigging: Crumar Mojo 61, Hammond SKPro

Home: Vintage Vibe 64

 

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With all that, I still don"t see how any of this exposes a flaw in my argument.

 

I probably shouldn't have called you out in particular Zephonic. I apologize for that. The truth is, I don't know what your argument was to begin with. I'd say you weren't so much making an argument as expressing a feeling.

 

You and I would agree that the economy has to be restarted at some point. Neither one of us is qualified to say when that is.

 

If I could restate my point, it would be that any projection of the future has to account for how the health care system reacts to policies and decisions. It's being reported that in Pakistan, many health care workers simply aren't showing up for work. The reason they aren't showing up is that the government so far has not even acknowledged the virus. Many of Pakistan's leaders have been urging people to literally come together in large groups to pray so that God may save them. Many health care professionals don't want to sacrifice themselves in that situation.

 

The U.S. is not Pakistan, but Pakistan illustrates a point that you can't just choose from a menu of options and assume that health care operates as a constant no matter what choice is made.

Gigging: Crumar Mojo 61, Hammond SKPro

Home: Vintage Vibe 64

 

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The key here, of course, is "left unchecked". That is not happening. Nobody's advocating a "do nothing" course of action.

 

What I'm hearing is that without the resources for a lot of testing and contact tracing and such, social distancing is the only hammer we've got.

 

The US passed 1000 deaths today and that's been steadily doubling every three days: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

 

That article cites evidence that most fatal cases take about a month from infection to death. Seems to me most of the school shutdowns and shelter-in-place orders and such started about two weeks ago? So it may be another two weeks before any results show up in those death statistics. In two weeks, that's about 5*3 days, doubling 5 times is 32 times, so that's 32,000 deaths, several thousand a day. And hospitalizations much higher than that. Is anything less than a total shutdown going to be politically feasible at that point? Better to do it now while it might help. Seems to me we were too late if anything.

 

But like all of us I'm just playing amateur epidemiologist here, I've probably got some stuff wrong....

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The key here, of course, is "left unchecked". That is not happening. Nobody's advocating a "do nothing" course of action.

 

What I'm hearing is that without the resources for a lot of testing and contact tracing and such, social distancing is the only hammer we've got.

 

The US passed 1000 deaths today and that's been steadily doubling every three days: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

 

That article cites evidence that most fatal cases take about a month from infection to death. Seems to me most of the school shutdowns and shelter-in-place orders and such started about two weeks ago? So it may be another two weeks before any results show up in those death statistics. In two weeks, that's about 5*3 days, doubling 5 times is 32 times, so that's 32,000 deaths, several thousand a day. And hospitalizations much higher than that. Is anything less than a total shutdown going to be politically feasible at that point? Better to do it now while it might help. Seems to me we were too late if anything.

 

But like all of us I'm just playing amateur epidemiologist here, I've probably got some stuff wrong....

 

I certainly don't claim to know better than the NYT, but I'm a little confused about this. That graph is from 3/21 and pegs US deaths at 971, whereas the ArsTechnica article was updated today and mentions over 1,000 dead in the USA:

 

As of March 26 at 3pm ET, there have been more than 76,500 cases detected nationwide and more than 1,000 deaths. With testing for COVID-19 in the United States severely delayed and still limited, the number of actual cases is expected to be much higher.

 

All 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and the US Virgin Islands are reporting cases. West Virginia, the last state to detect cases, announced its first case on Tuesday, March 17.

 

Here is the latest map from the CDC from March 26 showing affected states, with a color gradient indicating case ranges in each state. Note that the CDC data sometimes lags behind some case reporting by state and local health departments. This map is sometimes missing cases, but you can get a general idea of the country"s situations. Generally, for a more up-to-date reference, you can check out the global COVID-19 dashboard, put together by researchers at Johns Hopkins University.

 

cdc-map-10-640x495.jpg

 

Among the hardest hit states are Washington, California, New York, and New Jersey.

 

Washington state is currently reporting 2,580 cases and 132 deaths. The state reported the first case in the whole of the United States back in January. A Seattle-area man in his 30s developed symptoms after returning from a trip to the area around Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began. The current outbreak in the state may link back to that initial case, according to preliminary genetic analyses.

 

New York state is reporting 37,258 cases and 385 deaths. Of the cases, 21,393 are in New York City and 5,944 are from Westchester County, a suburb of New York City that has experienced a large outbreak.

 

On March 14, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced the state"s first death in an elderly woman with advanced emphysema. 'We all have a part to play here,' he said in the announcement. 'I ask every New Yorker to do their part and take the necessary precautionary measures to protect the people most at risk.'

 

In a press briefing, March 24, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo warned the country: 'We are your future."

 

Nearby New Jersey is reporting 6,876 cases with 81 deaths.

 

California is reporting 2,535 cases and 53 deaths. The state has housed hundreds of quarantined citizens repatriated from China and passengers from two coronavirus-stricken cruise ships.

 

 

Did we go from 971 deaths on 3/21 to over 1000 as of today? That is certainly not a doubling every three days. The Guardian (a well-respected UK newspaper) also has deaths at 1069, with new deaths at 127 today.

 

That NYT graph certainly looks alarming, but I'm having trouble reconciling those numbers? One explanation could be that between last Saturday and today the effects of the lockdown are beginning to show in the stats, but IDK.

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With all that, I still don"t see how any of this exposes a flaw in my argument.

 

I probably shouldn't have called you out in particular Zephonic. I apologize for that.

 

No apologies necessary, I appreciate us having a civilized discussion where diverging views can be expressed without rancor. I do have a tendency to play Devil's Advocate, so don't stop taking me to task.

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That graph is from 3/21 and pegs US deaths at 971, whereas the ArsTechnica article was updated today and mentions over 1,000 dead in the USA:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html "The accompanying chart, which will update every morning". So, it was 971 when they updated it this morning.

 

Gotcha, I missed that.

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Ever heard of Soylent Green?

If I recall from the movie, Soylent Green was made from dead people, but there wasn't a connection between production of Soylent Green and any policy of making people die faster.

Ever see the movie "Logan's Run"?
These are only my opinions, not supported by any actual knowledge, experience, or expertise.
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Ever heard of Soylent Green?

If I recall from the movie, Soylent Green was made from dead people, but there wasn't a connection between production of Soylent Green and any policy of making people die faster.

Ever see the movie "Logan's Run"?

 

Ya, was fascinated by that one. I was young when I saw it though. On TV in the 70s.

 

"the novel depicts a dystopic ageist future society in which both population and the consumption of resources are maintained in equilibrium by requiring the death of everyone reaching the age of 21."

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"the novel depicts a dystopic ageist future society in which both population and the consumption of resources are maintained in equilibrium by requiring the death of everyone reaching the age of 21."

 

I thought it was anyone age 30, but I'm probably confusing that with the 60's phrase "Don't trust anyone over 30."

 

Edit: I was right. In the film, it's age 30. See this wikipedia entry:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logan%27s_Run_(film)

 

Logan's Run is a 1976 American science fiction film, directed by Michael Anderson and starring Michael York, Jenny Agutter, Richard Jordan, Roscoe Lee Browne, Farrah Fawcett, and Peter Ustinov. The screenplay by David Zelag Goodman is based on the book Logan's Run by William F. Nolan and George Clayton Johnson. It depicts a utopian future society on the surface, revealed as a dystopia where the population and the consumption of resources are maintained in equilibrium by killing everyone who reaches the age of thirty. The story follows the actions of Logan 5, a "Sandman" who has terminated others who have attempted to escape death and is now faced with termination himself.

 

Produced by Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, the film uses only the novel's two basic premises: that everyone must die at a set age, and that Logan and companion Jessica attempt to escape while being chased by another Sandman named Francis. After aborted attempts to adapt the novel, story changes were made including raising the age of "last day" from 21 to 30 and introducing the idea of "Carrousel" [sic] for eliminating 30-year-olds. Its filming was marked by special-effects challenges in depicting Carrousel and innovative use of holograms and wide-angle lenses.

 

The film won a Special Academy Award for its visual effects and six Saturn Awards, including Best Science Fiction Film.

These are only my opinions, not supported by any actual knowledge, experience, or expertise.
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Ever heard of Soylent Green?

If I recall from the movie, Soylent Green was made from dead people, but there wasn't a connection between production of Soylent Green and any policy of making people die faster.

Ever see the movie "Logan's Run"?

Can highly recommend the book to anyone here who may not have read it.

 

To clarify and assist with some of the other commentary above - in the book, the age of termination was 21, in the film it was 30. IMO, the film has not aged terribly well, but the book is still terrific.

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Story idea: "Corona's Run" â In order to save the economy, everybody age 70 or older must expose themselves to the virus.
These are only my opinions, not supported by any actual knowledge, experience, or expertise.
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There is some conflation of the pace at which cases are diagnosed as compared to the pace at which people are getting infected. The latter is pretty difficult to track accurately without pervasive testing (or statistically significant random testing as a proxy.) We're not there yet. Fatalities, on the other hand, we do tend to notice and test to get a better handle on the growth of the pandemic. Where we do have more reliable evidence, it appears we're on pace to double every six days, which leads to horrifying rates in short order if left unchecked.

 

Of course "doing something" is not the same as doing something effective. Telling people not to gather in groups of more than ten is not nearly as effective as we wanted to believe in the beginning because network effects still reach huge populations rather rapidly:

 

Covid-19-Transmission-graphic-01.gif

 

I'm pleased to see that many areas have switched instead to suggesting that only people from the same residence should interact in non-essential activities. That should dramatically slow the spread between households. The Bing COVID tracking site provides good insight into the trend lines for individual regions, making it pretty clear that South Korea and Mainland China seem to have a handle on the problem and the rest of us should pay some attention to what works because our current practices aren't cutting it.

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