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Let's assume there are no more concerts...


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I think there already is an impact in Westchester, NY (which is kind of the epicenter in NY at the moment). I did a gig last weekend in a small room (capacity of about 50). Although we sold out, I know of a couple of people who didn't want to risk coming. More notably, some fellow-jazz musicians in my area have told me of a few canceled gigs in clubs/restaurants.

 

My guess is that we are going to witness a lot of this in the coming months. Eventually, this will pass, but I'm afraid that some of the smaller venues may decline to bring back music once they have learned to exist without it for a while.

 

Your downstate from me but my guitarist as an aunt there and they cancelled the trip. I just got this email at work:

 

To the University Community:

 

The University has been monitoring the spread of the novel coronavirus since January, with faculty and staff experts on the Coronavirus University Response Team (CURT) working to evaluate the many impacts this virus may have on the University, its people, and its programs. Currently, the risk to our campus and the region remains low, but today Governor Andrew Cuomo declared a state of emergency for New York, and we know the situation here could change quickly. We will continue to communicate regularly with you and keep the Coronavirus Update website current in order to keep you informed.

 

We recognize that there is a great deal of uncertainty and concern regarding this virus. The most timely and accurate information is available on the CDC website. We would encourage you to seek information from credible sources; inaccurate information is being circulated on social media and elsewhere. If you have questions about this situation for which you cannot find an answer, please submit them via the form on the University"s update website. We are regularly monitoring submissions and will have the appropriate person or office respond to you quickly. And if you are experiencing anxiety or stress about this situation â or know others who are â the University has a variety of resources to provide advice and support.

 

Given the rapidly changing number of diagnosed COVID-19 cases, the President"s Senior Leadership Group (SLG) met yesterday to evaluate the University"s position relative to domestic and international travel and to University-sponsored events. In an effort to try to limit the introduction of COVID-19 into our environment, to ensure business continuity that could be disrupted due to mandatory quarantines, and to protect the health and safety of our community, we have decided that beginning immediately and continuing at least to April 15, all University-related international travel should be restricted and domestic travel should be strongly discouraged. In addition, we are restricting campus or campus-sponsored events to 100 participants or fewerânot including classesâand encouraging members of the community to find alternative ways to conduct business, for example, through videoconferencing. Details on these decisions can be found below.

 

We owe thanks to our many staff, faculty, and Medical Center colleagues who are working tirelessly to anticipate and prepare for the impacts of novel coronavirus at the University. We recognize that the newly-developed guidance described below may have negative impacts on some academic and research programs underway or on upcoming planned events, but we made these decisions with the best interests of the University community in mind. We appreciate your consideration and your partnership as we work together to keep our campus healthy and to support our community.

 

"Danny, ci manchi a tutti. La E-Street Band non e' la stessa senza di te. Riposa in pace, fratello"

 

 

noblevibes.com

 

 

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My wife just had a European tour cancelled. Here in New Orleans we're just a month away from our serious festival season, when many of us make a good chunk of our yearly income. Our big festivals are still on as of now, but I'm not at all confident that that will continue to be the case. So yeah, livestreaming concerts from our house is definitely an option we're looking into.
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Count me as another who doesn't get the disproportionate reaction. If indeed 70% of the worlds population will eventually contract it, and it'll take a year + to develop a vaccine, we're all screwed, musos or not, if the entire world is avoiding any gathering of people. All economies will collapse.

 

If indeed there's a 20% mortality rate with 80+ yo folks, then that's a population that has reason to be very worried. I know that many members on this forum are over 60, myself I'm 65, and of course it's a sliding scale for the older populations. But that's not as challenging to control, most 80+ yo folks are not gathering, they are sitting at home or in a home.

 

The common flu kills an estimated 300,000- 600,000 people worldwide a year, and that's with various vaccines developed each year to combat it. Not sure why this is treated differently.

 

Don't know why there aren't more people mentioning the fact that there tends to be a lessening of any virus as you go into the summer months. They survive more easily in the cold, and with heat, several past potential epidemics have subsided as the seasons got hotter.

 

Perhaps it's a good thing that the world is learning better hygiene, but I also can't help thinking that there'll be plenty more where this came from. The world is over populated, and as a species we have very few restrictions on how fast we grow in numbers, and how many there are of us, esp as we continue to live longer.

 

In my view this is just one of many course corrections that's taking place on a large scale. Mother nature has so far been unsuccessful at balancing our growth as a species to be in harmony with other species and the natural world. This, along with climate change for example, are just the latest examples of what will likely happen all the more. And, as the fight for resources, among other things, escalates to a global level, we're very likely to create further disasters of our own making, such as WW3.

 

That's another thing that I don't understand. There's such a huge value/importance placed on every single life among the 7.5 billion of us. Half of that number coming since the 70's. With that kind of growth, we're all in for a world of hurt in the next 10-20 years.

 

It makes me think of quarterly profits. Such an emphasis on short term gain/advantage, not much vision for long term growth.

Numa Piano X73 /// Kawai ES920 /// Casio CT-X5000 /// Yamaha EW425

Yamaha Melodica and Alto Recorder

QSC K8.2 // JBL Eon One Compact // Soundcore Motion Boom Plus 

Win10 laptop i7 8GB // iPad Pro 9.7" 32GB

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The common flu kills an estimated 300,000- 600,000 people worldwide a year, and that's with various vaccines developed each year to combat it. Not sure why this is treated differently.

Unlike the flu, there is no vaccine (the partial protection of the flu vaccine is better than none); and also unlike the flu, the chance of death if you get it is much higher. In the U.S., death rate from the flu is .1% (1 in a 1000). Depending on what numbers you look at, death rate from CPVID-19 varies, but is always substantially higher than that. A common estimate I've seen has been 2% (1 in 50, or 20x more likely than dying from getting the flu), though I've seen estimates lower and higher than that.

 

Maybe this is the best place for a shameless plug! Our now not-so-new new video at https://youtu.be/3ZRC3b4p4EI is a 40 minute adaptation of T. S. Eliot's "Prufrock" - check it out! And hopefully I'll have something new here this year. ;-)

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Living here on Maui, we rely a LOT on tourism, and my best gigs are conventions/sales meetings, and then weddings. I am already seeing some cancellations from companies that are choosing not to bring their sales staff from around the world for events. And we have cruise ships that dock weekly. Things are only going to get worse before they get better. I am not saying the caution is not appropriate, just that it ripples across the economy in so many ways. It would take me a LOT of $100 a night gigs to make up for these better-paying convention gigs...

 

Jerry

 

 

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Whether societies should adopt policies premised on allowing the virus to cull the most vulnerable is an interesting academic debate, but politically it's off the table. We're likely to see very restrictive measures put in place so that the millenial who goes to see live music at night doesn't infect the elderly where she works during the day.

 

 

 

 

Gigging: Crumar Mojo 61, Hammond SKPro

Home: Vintage Vibe 64

 

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Yeah, I don't see people allowing the elderly to just perish where they sit. So, where will they go? Hospitals.

 

All these flu numbers are kind of illustrating the problem--the flu on its own strains some hospitals. This is additional to that.

 

What the experts are saying is that we don't want everyone to get this around the same time. If we all get it, but it's spaced out over a longer time, then hospitals and the people in them might not become overburdened. This affects non-corona patients too. You might not be able to get the treatment you need if all the beds are filled, and a bunch of the doctors and nurses have all gotten sick at the same time.

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Well the Unversity lab in Melbourne Australia that first cracked the Covid 19 code said that the fastest that a vaccine has been developed so far for other viruses is 3 months. Guess they should have consulted some keyboard players first before stating that fact.

 

Indeed - let's say they do have a potential vaccine in 3 months. Then there are human trials and assuming it all goes perfectly with the first trial, the ramp up to produce hundreds of millions to billions of doses. 12 months will be an amazing achievement if they pull it off, but I'd expect it to take longer than that.

Well I have to disagree and maybe the sole dissenter from that view on the planet. We are not talking about trials here on people in a remote Scottish village when for example statins were being trialled as the miracle cure for high cholesterol. Shame that only lasted two years cause I was getting statins for free until they got authorised under the PBS in Australia.

 

We are talking about a rerun of HIV. Then I was on the pointy end of the impact of HIV on shareholders, with zero interest on the impact on individual lives. There were arms offered up by those infected by HIV everywhere in the world to test the new vaccines, and the rate at which HIV went from a certain killer to low mortality set a new benchmark. That was the late eighties, medical science has moved on since then and now has real live patients to work with.

 

Let face it you don't die from Covid-19, you die from the complications, for example when an abscess on the wall of the lung bursts and you get complications from the resultant hole in the wall of the lung. All treatable in a first world medical institution. Sadly the majority of the world's population does not live in a first world country.

 

The HIV vaccine took 10+ years and work started on it pretty damn quickly. The biggest issue though is this: there ain't no vaccine for the common cold and it's the same family of viruses as COVID (some colds are rhinoviruses but a lot are corona viruses). The reasons are numerous but unless the brilliant people working on the vaccine have some luck alongside their hard work, a world-wide vaccine in 12 months may even be stretching it. No-one will be happier to be proven wrong more than me, but I've worked in the health field long enough to know the realities, even when there's huge resources.

 

Put another way: unless I were over 70 and at huge risk of contracting it, there's no way I'd be taking a vaccine developed in 3-4 months without extensive human trials, and I'm the guy that wants to take a baseball bat to anti-vaxxers ;)

 

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Don't know why there aren't more people mentioning the fact that there tends to be a lessening of any virus as you go into the summer months.

It's possible, but not a certainty with this particular virus. Also, even if it does subside, that doesn't mean it doesn't come back strong when winter returns. So either way, we should be concerned about containment short term, and cures/vaccines long term.

 

Maybe this is the best place for a shameless plug! Our now not-so-new new video at https://youtu.be/3ZRC3b4p4EI is a 40 minute adaptation of T. S. Eliot's "Prufrock" - check it out! And hopefully I'll have something new here this year. ;-)

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It was said above that older folks don't go out. Not so. One word: Church. Perfect transmission venue with lots of people in close proximity, and older people are statistically more likely to be the ones going to church, in addition to being the most vulnerable portion of the population. And if someone starts sneezing, no one is going to leave. They're going to stay until the service ends, come what may. Sitting ducks.

 

Then there's Walmart (Walmart employee discovered to be infected today in Kentucky). How many people does an average Walmart employee talk to in a single day? If they're at a cash register, it's potentially a huge number. I don't know about where you folks live, but there are scads of old folks in every Walmart I've ever been in.

 

Grey

I'm not interested in someone's ability to program. I'm interested in their ability to compose and play.

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At my wife's hospital they've run out of masks because families and staff are raiding the stores. A couple of nights ago several doctors confronted the director of the hospitalist group and YELLED that they weren't going to see ANY patients until masks are provided. This is not a situation you want.

9 Moog things, 3 Roland things, 2 Hammond things and a computer with stuff on it

 

 

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Just want to point out for the people who say, "the symptoms are not that bad". On average, the symptoms are MUCH MUCH worse than a common flu. Stages 1 & 2 are basically the same symptoms are severe colds and flus, but THEN you have Stage 3 which is pneumonia. Yes, a third of people are asymptomatic, but that's actually lower than the Flu which is closer to 50%. There's a huge amount of anecdotal evidence out there to both extremes. However, the average case is far more severe than what you're likely to have with a flu. And that's just for younger people who aren't at risk. My elderly parents with immunodeficiency statistically have about a 35% chance of dying of the disease if they get it, and that scares the shit out of me. People like them are relying on us healthy, younger folks to do our best not to spread it, and to take things seriously.

 

Don't Panic, but take it seriously. Right now there's a knee-jerk reaction for and against preparation. Both are bad. Prudence in the case of a LIKELY, and serious global crisis is NOT panicking. Buying out 3 months supply of Toilet Paper IS panicking. Recognize the difference, but don't blame people who take it seriously. I've already been flamed and called monstrous things just for posting basic WHO and CDC statistics. I'm a tool of the mass media, "they're trying to hype us up", yada yada yada. I don't even read mass media sources. This is what the highest level scientists are reporting. It almost feels political. Nothing political here, just facts.

 

But seriously: stop buying Toilet Paper, people. Sure, grab yourself an extra week supply in case you're bed ridden and can't leave. But this isn't butt cancer. Wrong end of your body!

Puck Funk! :)

 

Equipment: Laptop running lots of nerdy software, some keyboards, noise makersâ¦yada yada yadaâ¦maybe a cat?

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Put another way: unless I were over 70 and at huge risk of contracting it, there's no way I'd be taking a vaccine developed in 3-4 months without extensive human trials, and I'm the guy that wants to take a baseball bat to anti-vaxxers ;)

^ This

 

No miracle is going to come any time soon. Laws dictate that non-human and human trials take a number of months (anywhere from 3-9+ depending on the conditions), and that's AFTER the vaccine is finished. If all the stars align, we MIGHT have a vax ready for next years "Corona Season". Oh, and about that, COVID19 is here to stay. For many viruses, our immune systems are pretty good at building up permanent resistance. Unfortunately, our immune systems are pretty crappy about corona viruses (and flus), and forget them over time. You're immune for a while, but after a few years your immune system gets forgetful and you can get it again. So once a vaccine has been finalized, it will likely be rolled into the yearly Flu concoction, with the recommendation that you should get it every year. Also, luckily, the worst of it is going to be this first year. Most predictions are that the virus will slowly become weaker over time, as it focuses more on long-term survival. Many Corona viruses started out as more serious illnesses, but serious illnesses that kill and debilitate hosts don't spread as well. Even if you don't die, but are hit hard and stay home, you're less likely to give the virus a chance to spread itself. So after the first year or so, it will likely be the less severe strains that will dominate.

 

Just what I've been reading from articles out of the CDC and WHO.

Puck Funk! :)

 

Equipment: Laptop running lots of nerdy software, some keyboards, noise makersâ¦yada yada yadaâ¦maybe a cat?

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Count me as another who doesn't get the disproportionate reaction. If indeed 70% of the worlds population will eventually contract it, and it'll take a year + to develop a vaccine, we're all screwed, musos or not, if the entire world is avoiding any gathering of people. All economies will collapse.

 

It's actually very, very simple: If a disease with 15% "serious" cases ( = hospitalisation) spreads too quickly for our healthcare systems to cope, a disproportionate number of people die â not because the disease isn't treatable, but because the capacity to treat them isn't there.

 

The point is slowing down the spread enough to keep the number of serious cases within the capacity of our hospitals reduces mortality.

 

That's it.

 

 

Additional problem: Healthcare capacity varies with the exhaustion of staff, and staff themselves will eventually contract the disease, as well, reducing the number of staff available.

 

Also, if we manage to delay the spread long enough, then a vaccine might become available to protect the high-risk groups (old age, immune weakness, cancer patients, pre-existing respiratory disorders, etc.) who haven't contracted it yet.

 

 

 

Italy is NOW at the point where hospitals are no longer able to cope with the number of sick.

"The Angels of Libra are in the European vanguard of the [retro soul] movement" (Bill Buckley, Soul and Jazz and Funk)

The Drawbars | off jazz organ trio

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" ... Buying out 3 months supply of Toilet Paper IS panicking..."

lookey here

Yep Aussies get the award for worlds worst practice on hoarding dunny rolls. Amazingly we dont seem to be worried about hoarding inputs before addressing how we deal with the outputs. Lucky we still make toilet paper here and dont have to rely on importing them from China.

 

One newspaper here had CV supplement in the centre of the paper. Eight sheets of blank paper.

A misguided plumber attempting to entertain | MainStage 3 | Axiom 61 2nd Gen | Pianoteq | B5 | XK3c | EV ZLX 12P

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The HIV vaccine took 10+ years and work started on it pretty damn quickly.

 

There is no HIV vaccine, and it's actually been 35 years.

OK well in Australia the number of HIV deaths fell from just under 800 in the early 1990' to less than a 100 in 2017 and many years before. So no vaccine or treatment here, everyone just got lucky?

 

So with CV relax, it will get will get worse but then it will get better, nothing to see here for medical science.

A misguided plumber attempting to entertain | MainStage 3 | Axiom 61 2nd Gen | Pianoteq | B5 | XK3c | EV ZLX 12P

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The HIV vaccine took 10+ years and work started on it pretty damn quickly.

 

There is no HIV vaccine, and it's actually been 35 years.

 

 

Oops you're absolutely right - I was meaning the development of antiretroviral therapy.

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It's possible to find positives in this situation. Not in anyone getting sick, of course. But perhaps in helping some sectors reaching a realization that we don't need to be traveling everywhere all the time. For instance, so much business travel is unnecessary and could be replaced by virtual meetings. Speaking as someone who devotes both my professional and personal life to fighting climate change, there are aspects of this that make me hopeful we come out the other end with more sensible practices.

 

But maybe that brings this back towards the original thesis of this thread. Is there really a substitute for live music performances that bring people together in the same physical space? It's hard for me to imagine. So much of a live music performance is experiencing other people experiencing the same thing you are. The Coronavirus will eventually be controlled, but some folks will forever be more cautious about going out, even if only a little bit. It's hard to see a silver lining for musicians in that.

Gigging: Crumar Mojo 61, Hammond SKPro

Home: Vintage Vibe 64

 

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There is no HIV vaccine, and it's actually been 35 years.

OK well in Australia the number of HIV deaths fell from just under 800 in the early 1990' to less than a 100 in 2017 and many years before. So no vaccine or treatment here, everyone just got lucky?

There's no vaccine, but treatments have gotten better. Also, you can't "catch" HIV, you generally have to engage in specific behaviors, which are avoidable. So unlike COVID-19, it is actually almost entirely preventable with proper education, behaviors, social policy. And those are things that have probably also improved since the 90s.

Maybe this is the best place for a shameless plug! Our now not-so-new new video at https://youtu.be/3ZRC3b4p4EI is a 40 minute adaptation of T. S. Eliot's "Prufrock" - check it out! And hopefully I'll have something new here this year. ;-)

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There will be some economic impact on me, but it shouldn't be too serious. Gigging is my part time job, and brings in a little extra money. I have a day job that covers the main bills.

 

I work in a large room where there are probably about 750 people. My wife refers to it as a petri dish. So far there are no reported cases here in Brevard County, FL, but I'm sure it's just a matter of time.

 

My job has restricted all business travel, has prohibited all outside food delivery, and will turn away any visitor that cannot answer a health questionnaire with all no answers. They have also sent a survey to see who has the capability to work from home. They are starting the process of moving people to the work from home scenario.

 

I expect to possibly be one of the first to get this option. I worked from home for 18 months, I have a separate office where I can exclude the dogs.

 

But more importantly, my wife has been battling cancer for 10 years, and is currently actively doing chemo treatments, so her immune system is severely compromised.

 

And I have a heart condition that may require valve replacement surgery soon.

 

So we are both at high risk.

 

Economically, the impact to me is difficult to determine. Sure, it could mean less income as gigs are cancelled, but there again, my travel costs for work would be slashed, as would my lunch budget. And I could get more sleep, as I would not have to factor in the 30 minutes commute.

 

 

"In the beginning, Adam had the blues, 'cause he was lonesome.

So God helped him and created woman.

 

Now everybody's got the blues."

 

Willie Dixon

 

 

 

 

 

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I have a UK tour in May with AWB, which is actually a rescheduling of a tour we were supposed to do last September. That one was cancelled after our leader got a detached retina. A major portion of my 2019 income was lost and now it looks to repeat in 2020. Our daughter just started college last fall at a $70K/year school (scholarships are covering half, the rest is on us. Her school is shutting down for the rest of the semester and she's coming home soon). I am a full-time musician â things are not looking too good on the economic front. Maybe Walmart will need help stocking disinfecting wipes on their shelves (a little black humor for today). Of course peoples' health is the #1 priority but I think many full-time musicians are gonna be screwed.
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Not just musicians unfortunately. This really sucks all the way around. Think of all the industries affected directly, then all the industries dependent on those and so on. Granted, I happen to live where tourism is the biggest industry so it's going to be worse here in that regard than many places if layoffs start to happen. But people at bars and restaurants are probably going to take a hit, and of course all the people that work concessions at events, and so on.

 

I really, really hope some of the "on the ground" stories I'm reading from Italy are made-up or exaggerated. Because it sounds WAY worse than the flu. NPR story as I was driving was about a 38 year old athlete that got it--he's getting off a ventilator after 10 days or so. So no, he's not going to die from this, but he just spent 10 days in ICU on a machine to help him breathe. This is why we can't focus on "only old people die". Without that machine, this really fit youngish person would likely be dead...and how many machines are there to go around? And people to operate them, the other part of the stories is how overworked the medical staffs are, and many of them have caught it as well.

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This past Saturday I played at Space Coast Harley Davidson in Palm Bay FL, to celebrate the beginning of Bike Week. Very few people there.

 

I heard that the full Daytona bike week was almost a ghost town, hardly anyone there.

"In the beginning, Adam had the blues, 'cause he was lonesome.

So God helped him and created woman.

 

Now everybody's got the blues."

 

Willie Dixon

 

 

 

 

 

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Just had my first outright cancellation - a street festival this weekend as a DJ. This was supposed to start three days from now. I'm ok with it, but there will be vendors and live acts that will be totally bummed I'm sure.

 

I'm on the north side of 60, which is cool in some ways (pretty secure financially) but uncool in others (I could die from this). So far I've still been doing my normal club gigs (not as a keyboard player anymore) but that may well change over the next week or so.

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