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Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
#3031977 03/06/20 05:51 PM
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Like concerts being cancelled? Or people not coming to clubs or shows? Or traveling on empty flights?

I can't help but wonder if it's been around longer than thought. I was really sick in mid-November and December, after not having so much as a cold for seven years. I had all the symptoms that are being described as part of the coronavirus - fever, coughing, shortness of breath. I went to the doctor because I felt so horrible, was tested for flu, and it showed up negative- but of course it would, because this is a new strain...who knows.

My daughter said that where she is in Los Angeles, people are hoarding supplies, and grocery stores have a lot of empty shelves. I'm not seeing that here in Tennessee, though.

For events like concerts, it seems like a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. If you cancel a concert, it's probably not necessary, and unnecessarily alarmist. But if you don't cancel it and people who go to it get sick, then you're in trouble.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3031979 03/06/20 06:05 PM
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I am getting over a lingering cold, first one I've had in a long time. I get a flu shot every fall and have never had the flu since I started doing that.

Bellingham is not far from the area where 9 people have died.

I've become very consious of not touching my face, a habit that can be broken.

A State of Emergency was declared in WA due to the lag in testing procedures and no way to know what our numbers are.
Meanwhile, just north of us in BC they developed a test, shared the results with WHO and everybody but the US uses that test, go figure.

I have also added a container of sanitary wipesto my vehicle, it is too bulky to carry around with me. If I avoid touching my face and open as many doors as possible with my elbows etc, then I think the car is a fine place for them.

The numbers for the death rate seem questionable since some people may get it and shrug it off and others will simply have symptoms similar to a cold and not get tested.
It could take long time to know what is actually happening!!!


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3031981 03/06/20 06:10 PM
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My state (Maryland) just declared a State of Emergency today, due to three confirmed cases turning up in the county where I live. FWIW, this is a bedroom/commuter community that sits right on top of Washington, D.C., so the virus is literally a short commute from the center of our Federal gov't. OTOH, we have NIH right down the road, and Ft. Derrick just North of us.

Locally, meaning throughout the area, there's been some hoarding of fiber masks, which do nothing against the virus? Haven't noticed any other changes, but this announcement just came this morning.

No cancelled shows that I know of, but sadly, restaurants, particularly Chinese restaurants, have taken a hit. I'm going downtown to see Steve Hackett tonight, so wish me luck . . .


"Monsters are real, and Ghosts are real too. They live inside us, and sometimes, they win." Stephen King

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3031984 03/06/20 06:26 PM
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I believe Musik Messe/ Pro Light & Sound have been cancelled.

dB

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Dave Bryce #3031986 03/06/20 06:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave Bryce
I believe Musik Messe/ Pro Light & Sound have been cancelled.


Wow, that's a big deal - here's the info. To be clear, they say it has been "postponed," not cancelled, although no new dates have been announced. A few of the local elements will go on as planned.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3031989 03/06/20 06:49 PM
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Just found out the next James Bond film, which was scheduled for an April release, has been postponed to November. Apparently something with that big a budget needs to do well overseas, and theaters are being closed in some major markets like Italy, China, Japan, and South Korea, while attendance is down elsewhere.

I guess they're taking the flick's title "No Time to Die" pretty seriously smile

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032054 03/07/20 12:17 AM
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SXSW 2020 has just been officially cancelled.

https://www.sxsw.com/2020-event-update/


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
davedoerfler #3032056 03/07/20 12:22 AM
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Super Booth is still on.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032057 03/07/20 12:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton

I guess they're taking the flick's title "No Time to Die" pretty seriously smile


"they" should. Over 100,000 cases worldwide. Over 3,400 people have already died from this virus. The numbers will continue to increase


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
davedoerfler #3032061 03/07/20 12:42 AM
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I have been in contact with brother marino in Rome, Italy. For those who aren't familiar with him, he is on the MPN advisory board and teaches music at a University there, in addition to being a brilliant jazz musician.
He tells me that schools and universities will be closed until April, and that theaters are empty.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/06/8129...ases-rising-fast-rome-s-streets-go-quiet


I don't know why this global crisis isn't being taken more seriously in the USA.


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
davedoerfler #3032062 03/07/20 12:43 AM
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Originally Posted by davedoerfler

I don't know why this isn't being taken more seriously in the USA.


I think the US response is starting to ramp up Dave but see your point. Because the US health system is so fragmented (aside from oversight bodies like CDC etc), I can imagine coordinating a response there is a nightmare frown

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032064 03/07/20 01:07 AM
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Just today I got email from both my old church and my gym with reminder on usual hand washing, covering mouth, etc. The church is one with a lot of physical contact even in service hand shaking and such and they said they won't be doing any and if people do want to make contact just do and elbow bump. When I worked for the church we had three services on Sunday and about 3000 people in attendance and a lot of them want to shake hands or give hugs all the time. During flu outbreaks many on staff including me wouldn't make contact with people and most understood why, but some would still get upset we wouldn't make contact with them.

The gym had a similar message encouraging people to wipe down gear before and after you use it. I'm taking advantage of being retired and going to the gym, grocery store, and other public places at off hours when I know there won't be a lot of people around. I think a good dose of common sense and hand washing will keep most people well. Plus if I don't go out of the my apartment as much I have more time to practice.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032074 03/07/20 03:05 AM
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So here's the deal. We're all gonna get it at some point, if not this year, next year or the year after. Flu strains stick around for a long time, resurface occasionally, etc.Viruses are sentient beings, regardless of whether or not that's the prevailing scientific opinion, and they're smart enough to know that they really shouldn't kill everyone, because then there will be no one left to propagate the virus. And like all (well at least the vast majority) of us, viruses want to survive too.

Most of us will be inconvenienced from it, and some people will die from it, like they die from any kind of flu. The difference with this one is that it's a new strain, so no one has immunity, and more people will die than usual. I'm on the wrong side of the demographic curve for this sucker, but don't have underlying conditions, so I'll likely make it through. And if not, well, breaking news - I wasn't going to live forever anyway. smile

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032110 03/07/20 12:16 PM
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Absolutely right. Even AIDS and Ebola don't kill off all of their hosts . . .


"Monsters are real, and Ghosts are real too. They live inside us, and sometimes, they win." Stephen King

http://www.novparolo.com
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032127 03/07/20 04:19 PM
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Tourism is down, so the people who hire us are not making as much money. If things keep going that way, it might be more difficult for me to find work gigging.

Fortunately it's getting close to the end of the tourist season here in Florida. If it happened in the beginning I'd be really out.

I rarely get sick. I've been gigging since 1964 and haven't missed a downbeat. I catch a mild cold every 15 or so years. They usually last 2 days, one day of runny nose and one day of a cough. That's it, and I don't get flu shots.

I play for an elderly population 55+ as that is the most reliable market here in FL. They love us, hug us, shake our hands, and the French Canadians who winter down here give is the 'air kiss' on both cheeks. Obviously I have a strong immune system, so does Leilani.

I can't remember that last time I got the flu so I suspect that if I catch this COVID thing I'll survive.

My unscientific gut-instinct take is that it will be about as dangerous as a severe flu was before we figured out how to make flu vaccine. But I'm not a doctor, don't play one on TV and could be completely wrong about that.

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032135 03/07/20 05:11 PM
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So far no cases in MO, so not any noticeable changes in nightlife or other public events. My day job has had some extension of lead times for some products due to supply chain disruptions, but not serious.


Dan

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032136 03/07/20 05:20 PM
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I'm hoping to be in Jersey April 24 at the Vintage Computer Federation/Festival VCF EAST for short. Anyway, I have held off on booking a hotel and I am taking a wait and see approach.


Dan

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032195 03/08/20 05:23 AM
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I have a tour in May going to the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands. All the dates are ones that were rescheduled from a tour we were supposed to do this past fall but had to cancel due to the bandleader's emergency eye surgery. That cancelled tour was a pretty significant chunk of my 2019 income. All I can do now is wait and hope this May tour doesn't get cancelled, but it's not looking too good. As of today, New York has declared a state of emergency and several people have tested positive not that far from where I live.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032197 03/08/20 05:56 AM
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Well I spoke too soon, just had a news conference with our first confirmed case in St. Louis. We'll see if things start to change.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032200 03/08/20 06:55 AM
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San Francisco has canceled all public gatherings for the next two weeks, that involve public property. This means that the first performance of "A Midsummer's Night Dream" in 35 years, and all other ballet performances, along with symphony and other events, have all been canceled. I've waited my whole life to see that Balanchine choreography! I could have gone to the Friday premiere if I'd known, but my tickets were for next Wednesday. This overreaction could put a lot of companies and arts organizations and non-profits out of business. Supply chains, medicines, are affected.


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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
David Holloway #3032217 03/08/20 02:27 PM
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I was sick through most of January and February (when I was at NAMM I thought I was over what I had, but got really sick immediately after, then got better but not 100%, then sick again, then saw my ENT and I'm mostly better but I think it's just allergies now as things are sprouting here in Houston), so I really don't need to get sick again. I had big plans for this year. frown

Nothing has been canceled here yet. It seems weird to me that places are canceling events but this thing isn't going away so how long are we all going to do nothing? idk At least H5N-whatever had the decency to kill its hosts quickly and thus ruin any chance of itself spreading significantly. No, I'm not really saying that's a good thing, but in a way, it was.

Originally Posted by David Holloway
Originally Posted by davedoerfler

I don't know why this isn't being taken more seriously in the USA.


I think the US response is starting to ramp up Dave but see your point. Because the US health system is so fragmented (aside from oversight bodies like CDC etc), I can imagine coordinating a response there is a nightmare frown

Um, I won't get political. Let's just leave it at that.

I am seriously glad this didn't happen early enough to cancel NAMM. It would have been a bummer since that was my first. (Same for you, right David Holloway?). People are talking about whether Apple should cancel WWDC but I think they have time to decide. Same with Sweetwater Gearfest, which I have been considering going to.


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032245 03/08/20 07:56 PM
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I gig two to four nights a week as a club DJ and KJ. The way this virus has been affecting business has been selective so far. Hardest hit is a small but very crowded downtown venue where I run a karaoke show on Thursdays. Last Thursday was clearly off - as in you could generally find a place to sit most of the night. Friday night in a much bigger and more expansive venue that seats at least 300 was above normal. My last DJ gig was last Saturday, and it was also at least normal if not above.

I think people are becoming wary of cramped crowded spaces - and frankly so am I. I'm on the north side of 60, and will probably pull that Thursday gig if this virus works it's way east of Portland OR. The word coming out of China is that this is three times more contagious than influenza.

Right now there are 5 people viewing this forum versus 217 over at Keyboard Corner. Fellow KC'ers should we start our own separate thread over there? I posted here because you guys are wink


Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032257 03/08/20 08:56 PM
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Affected? Definitely - I'd say we all have been. Just going to the grocery store when I grab a cart, or get change back, or squeeze some melons (errr....never mind blush). Not making any changes yet but it's on my mind.

Impacted? Concert at the end of this month - shouldn't be a problem. Baseball game end of April...again not too worried. Made flight reservation to see my daughter in May - we'll see if there's an impact. My wife wanted to get tickets for a show in August and I told her we should hold off.

Infected? I hope not.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Joe Muscara #3032260 03/08/20 09:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe Muscara


I am seriously glad this didn't happen early enough to cancel NAMM. It would have been a bummer since that was my first. (Same for you, right David Holloway?).


Indeed - I feel lucky to have gotten to attend, even if I potentially picked my cold that I got off Craig wink

The cancellations are only kicking off. The financial impact of this is going to be a close second to the health impacts I fear.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
David Holloway #3032265 03/08/20 10:23 PM
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Originally Posted by David Holloway
Indeed - I feel lucky to have gotten to attend, even if I potentially picked my cold that I got off Craig wink

You'll have to look elsewhere for the source of the NAMMthrax, my whatever-it-was ended in December.

You mentioned the economic impact...some of the variables are starting to come into focus. Know anyone booking any cruises? And to think Italy has quarantined 16 million people! I believe that area includes IK Multimedia.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032276 03/09/20 12:14 AM
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Exactly - if (and I think when) most countries of the world have similar levels of disruption then a worldwide recession may become the better of some bad scenarios. Love to be proven wrong though.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032293 03/09/20 02:25 AM
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Just popped into our Fred Meyer (part of the Kroger chain) to get a few things. Taking a shortcut, I walked through the aisle devoted to toilet paper and paper towels.

There was not one single package of TP left!!!! There was a sign posted limiting buyers to 5 packages each. I spoke with a relative in San Diego, their Costco was wiped (ha - pun!!!) out of toilet paper too.

So I'm gonna take a look at the stock market, maybe this could be a good short term flip - Kimberly Clark and Scotts etc.

Pondering what else might get bought up, all the other shelves seemed to have plenty.

Weird. I guess if you are planning on hiding away for a few weeks. Could take longer, might have to risk infection with CV to get more TP.


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032307 03/09/20 04:01 AM
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Silicon Valley is significantly affected. Many companies are mandating work-from-home, all but closing offices, eliminating all but the most critical customer related travel, cancelling event hosting and attendance. There is community spread in some towns. Schools are still saying "no one is infected, we are continuing", but I don't believe that will hold. Things are changing daily here, but there is little one can do for "social distancing" if you have kids in school. That pretty much eliminates any "distance".

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Nathanael_I #3032326 03/09/20 11:59 AM
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Confirmed cases are up in the D.C. area, but I agree that as more tests become available, it will turn out that a lot of people have a mild form of this.

There is a very good editorial in Sun Day's Washington Post, from a gentleman in his 60's who's been quarantined with the virus. He makes two very important points - One is that he felt much sicker when he had ordinary bronchitis some time back, and second, the course of treatment he's been getting is largely something you could do for yourself at home. He was getting some IV treatments, largely vitamins & nutrients, but otherwise it's lots of Gatorade for hydration and Ibuprofen for fever, no anti-virals, no extraordinary measures other than the quarantine itself. The message is, "Even if you get this, it's more likely to be an inconvenience than a tragedy." Let's all hope . . .

In the meantime, allergy season is about to break loose in the D.C. area - allergy season is hell on Earth here - and if everyone with a runny nose self-quarantines, it will look like a ghost town.


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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Winston Psmith #3032357 03/09/20 04:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Winston Psmith

allergy season is about to break loose in the D.C. area - allergy season is hell on Earth here


OT now. but spring came 3 weeks early to DC this year. I started using Flonase late February.
Cherry blossoms will peak in late March. Anyway, you get my point. It's here now. wink
OK, back to coronavirus. Carry on.


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Bill H. #3032367 03/09/20 05:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Bill H.
Right now there are 5 people viewing this forum versus 217 over at Keyboard Corner. Fellow KC'ers should we start our own separate thread over there?


One reason for this forum is that it has always covered a broad range of topics that involve entertainment in general, trends, technology, musical philosophy, etc. I think it makes more sense to keep the Keyboard Corner about...well, keyboards smile Of course there's a solid community there, and the community wants to talk about things other than keyboards from time to time - but now you have a place for that! KC is IMHO the gold standard of keyboard-related discussion, that's what makes it unique.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032374 03/09/20 05:16 PM
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I wish the reaction to the coronavirus was a little more nuanced than "WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE"! or "Hey, just some old people are in trouble, it's not really worse than a cold."

You really have to consider that morbidity (the ratio of sick to well people in a community) is as important as mortality, if not more so. When I was sick with whatever I had (and in retrospect, it really sounds very similar to what coronavirus patients are experiencing), I was down for the count for pretty much six weeks, and fatigued for some additional time after that. I really didn't go anywhere or do anything because I just didn't feel well, so for sure, I wasn't helping the economy. But it also meant that my productivity took a nose dive. Attending to hard deadlines was all I could do. Any soft deadline, like a book or product, got delayed. Here it is March, and I still haven't finished working through the backlog from being out of commission for that long.

Now, imagine if 20% or 30% of the population went through the same thing. It would have a huge economic impact. So there are reasons for containing a pandemic and if that doesn't work, mitigating the effects, even if the mortality rate is 0%.

Last edited by Anderton; 03/09/20 05:16 PM.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032375 03/09/20 05:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Originally Posted by Bill H.
Right now there are 5 people viewing this forum versus 217 over at Keyboard Corner. Fellow KC'ers should we start our own separate thread over there?


One reason for this forum is that it has always covered a broad range of topics that involve entertainment in general, trends, technology, musical philosophy, etc. I think it makes more sense to keep the Keyboard Corner about...well, keyboards smile Of course there's a solid community there, and the community wants to talk about things other than keyboards from time to time - but now you have a place for that! KC is IMHO the gold standard of keyboard-related discussion, that's what makes it unique.


Since most have posted about the coronavirus in general and not specifically about our gigs, your point is well taken Craig. I'm good with keeping it here thu

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032414 03/09/20 10:14 PM
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The big problem is that there are too many variables at the moment to make anything other than (somewhat) informed speculation based on what's happened in the past - which may not be what happens in the future. For example, it's often mentioned that standard flu strains kill a lot of people; but how many would be killed if there weren't flu vaccines and if people hadn't built up immunity over the years? Will the corona virus mutate into other strains to which people don't have any immunity yet, or will it just fade away?

And because we really don't know yet what we're facing, there are going be two camps...the "abundance of caution" camp that won't get on an airplane, and the "well all I need to do is wash my hands, no big deal."

Here's my main takeaway: If society ever does break down, toilet paper will be a much better investment than gold smile

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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Even better, if someone ever invents hand sanitising toilet paper they will rule the world wink

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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Doubt if this will make national news since St. Louis is "flyover country" but there's a bunch of drama and outrage over something has happened after receiving our first case. The infectet person had come here from Italy and the family was supposed to stay quarantined. However it was learned that over the weekend, the father and daughter attended a school Father/Daughter dance at the Ritz Carlton, potentially exposing other attendees, not to mention hotel guests.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
J. Dead #3032442 03/10/20 02:24 AM
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Originally Posted by J. Dead
Doubt if this will make national news


I had to search for a few minutes but saw an article that NBC news just published 3 hours ago as of this post.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...ntine-took-other-daughter-dance-n1153586


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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The news keeps talking about the losses to cruise ships and airlines, but it sure seems festivals and sporting events are taking a major hit - now the Ultra Music Festival in Miami has been cancelled. I really don't know if all this is prudent and will make a difference in preventing the spread of the virus, or is alarmist silliness that won't make much difference anyway.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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I think the latter is the case.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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Originally Posted by Anderton
I really don't know if all this is prudent and will make a difference in preventing the spread of the virus, or is alarmist silliness that won't make much difference anyway.

I've been wondering that myself. How much of this is because of online news media and social media getting lots of people worked up and scared? Or is it prudent because the Baby Boomers are are a large percentage of the population and now old enough to be in the "danger zone"? Of course, they they probably aren't going to some of these events being cancelled. I know it can spread to them by people who would have gone to these events though.


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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I'm going to visit the nice folks at Sweetewater this week, so I get to fly through O'Hare a couple of times. Should be an interesting experience. duck

dB

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Dave Bryce #3032542 03/10/20 03:46 PM
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Looks like Coachella is going to be put off for 6 months

https://www.latimes.com/entertainme...stival-postponed-rescheduled-coronavirus


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032554 03/10/20 04:21 PM
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We went to Cancun for the last week of February when coronavirus was just becoming a thing. We passed through Atlanta on the way out and back. Flights and airports were full and I didn't see many "cough filters" on people. No one seemed to be very concerned, the "scare" mainly had to do with China then I suppose. In mid January I was contacted by my supervisor at work wanting to know if we'd traveled through any airports over the Christmas/New Years break. We had traveled to Charleston SC during that time once again passing through the Atlanta airport but that didn't register any concerns apparently.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
J. Dead #3032593 03/10/20 06:09 PM
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Originally Posted by J. Dead
I think the latter is the case.

I hope you're right. I've been thinking about this some more, and here's what we know as fact based on what happened in China.

* It's highly contagious. Left unchecked, cases double about every week.
* It has a higher mortality rate than other strains of flu.
* Because it is a new strain, no one has immunity, and there's no vaccine.

So whether it becomes serious or not depends on whether it can be contained. China locked down an entire city to keep it from spreading to other cities. At the moment, it seems the Wuhan experience is like a forest fire - it eventually burns out when it runs out of trees. It's an open question whether or not sparks will go to other cities and restart the fire.

It kind of reminds me of Y2K. Remember how that was supposed to end civilization as we know it? Well, when all was said and done, people concluded it was no big deal because no serious problems surfaced. But...because of the hysteria, code was fixed and systems were checked. We have no idea whether it would have been the disaster people expected, had those steps not been taken.

It's probably the same with the virus. If efforts at containment and mitigation are successful, then it will seem like the virus was no big deal. The question on many people's minds seems to be just how far do you take containment and mitigation? Do you really need to ban gatherings of people and cancel or postpone events like SXSW? Based on the Chinese experience, it seems the answer is that erring on the side of caution will cause damage, but not erring on the side of caution could cause more damage.

Sometimes in life there are no good options for a situation, only less bad ones...argh.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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Oh, and I'd like to thank everyone for keeping politics out of this. I care only about how it affects us, and of course, the entertainment industry.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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Synthplex and ASCAP EXPO were just postponed today.

dB

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Dave Bryce #3032635 03/10/20 09:02 PM
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Synthplex website is saying the show will go on as scheduled.
Inside information mabe? idk


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
davedoerfler #3032640 03/10/20 09:30 PM
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Originally Posted by davedoerfler
Synthplex website is saying the show will go on as scheduled.
Inside information mabe? idk
An email was sent out to presenters and people who registered. The website has now been updated.

Bummer!!! Well, I have to go to California anyway...tied in some other obligations with going to SynthPlex. Maybe I can push those around.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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I play a nursing home gig once or twice a month. they called me the other day and cancelled until further notice. They're restricting visitors to the facility to family members only. Didn't surprise me a bit, as that is an extremely vulnerable population, but I think they are just the tip of the iceberg. I'm starting to have discussions with my wife about what monthly bills we can afford to let slide if it comes down to lots of gigs being cancelled

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
area51recording #3032672 03/11/20 12:56 AM
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Originally Posted by area51recording
I'm starting to have discussions with my wife about what monthly bills we can afford to let slide if it comes down to lots of gigs being cancelled
What a difficult position. Sadly, you're not alone...hopefully the whole virus thing will play itself out expeditiously.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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My wife is one of the ladies who goes to the primary and secondary schools and tests kids hearing and vision. So, sure, almost every day, some little sweet kidlet turns his/her head up with those big brown or blue eyes wide open, intakes big and sharp, and sneezes straight in my wife's face.

So she mentioned the other day, "if the coronavirus gets hold here, I'll have to do some thinking about keeping my job or not." She's diabetic. We're not young. Craig is older, but that's not saying much smile

And we're at that point in life where we're at our peak earning years, trying to catch up in savings and whatnot, before retirement is not an option but a necessity. Without her job, things would change in a major way for the duration.

So, yeah...it's on our mind, this virus and what might happen.

I have to admit - I really don't know whether it would be better for society to take all the safe routes here and shut the thing down via lack of transmission and suffer the economic consequences whatever they may be...or....soldier on like Brits being bombed in '40, keeping up daily life, keeping the wheels turning, the mail delivered, showing up at work, 'cause, well, we refuse to die in a hole scared of uncertainties.

Maybe we just muddle through somewhere between the two tacks. 'Till they come up with a decent vaccine. Everyone equally unsatisfied, but we get through it.

Uncertainty, just by itself, is a sort of acid to the soul, isn't it? Unless you don't let it do that.

nat

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Nowarezman #3032699 03/11/20 07:28 AM
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Originally Posted by Nowarezman
I have to admit - I really don't know whether it would be better for society to take all the safe routes here and shut the thing down via lack of transmission and suffer the economic consequences whatever they may be...or....soldier on like Brits being bombed in '40, keeping up daily life, keeping the wheels turning, the mail delivered, showing up at work, 'cause, well, we refuse to die in a hole scared of uncertainties.

The problem is that the thing isn't digital, where either you're fine or you die. As mentioned in a previous post, when I had whatever I had late last year, my productivity was maybe 20% of normal. I hit all my hard deadlines but anything non-essential got pushed back. It was hard to get out of bed, I was so fatigued. If a significant portion of the population was too sick to get out of bed, that would create an economic problem that might be just as bad as what's happening now.

Either way it's a problem. Best case scenario is that all the paranoia is paying off, the virus won't spread much more, and it will just dissipate. I don't think it's doomsday time, but I do expect a rough ride for a while.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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Well tonight at the pharmacy, the girl behind the counter was excited because she had just hear that all her classes are canceled until April and she had a test next week she was worried about. I have to admit that I'm now old enough, that it took the entire walker back to the car for me to wrap my head around the practical details, particularly online classes, before I realized that she was in college and not high school.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Because it is a new strain, no one has immunity, and there's no vaccine


Scientists were close to a coronavirus vaccine years ago. Then the money dried up.

Quote
"We could have had this ready to go and been testing the vaccine's efficacy at the start of this new outbreak in China," said Hotez, who believes the vaccine could provide cross-protection against the new coronavirus, which causes a respiratory disease known as COVID-19. "There is a problem with the ecosystem in vaccine development, and we've got to fix this."


Originally Posted by Anderton
So whether it becomes serious or not depends on whether it can be contained. China locked down an entire city to keep it from spreading to other cities. At the moment, it seems the Wuhan experience is like a forest fire - it eventually burns out when it runs out of trees. It's an open question whether or not sparks will go to other cities and restart the fire.

It kind of reminds me of Y2K. Remember how that was supposed to end civilization as we know it? Well, when all was said and done, people concluded it was no big deal because no serious problems surfaced. But...because of the hysteria, code was fixed and systems were checked. We have no idea whether it would have been the disaster people expected, had those steps not been taken.

It's probably the same with the virus. If efforts at containment and mitigation are successful, then it will seem like the virus was no big deal. The question on many people's minds seems to be just how far do you take containment and mitigation? Do you really need to ban gatherings of people and cancel or postpone events like SXSW? Based on the Chinese experience, it seems the answer is that erring on the side of caution will cause damage, but not erring on the side of caution could cause more damage.


This is a really interesting analysis of Exponential Growth and Epidemics. Until I saw this, I wondered if this was stoppable at all, but he's saying it is, with some effort on our part. It seems some short-term suffering will help in the long term.


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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Big Ears just announced cancellation. Shame, as I love that festival, even though I wasn't planning to go this year, but that's how it goes

https://bigearsfestival.org/big-ears-festival-covid-19-cancellation/

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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And another big one down - the NAB show has been cancelled on account of virus panic. First no-show for them in nearly 100 years of shows. Says here: "We are currently considering a number of potential alternatives to create the best possible experience for our community."

Glad I decided not to go this year (hotel rooms too expensive) so I don't have a bought-in-advance plane ticket going to waste.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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‘Everything Is in Chaos’: The Concert Business Stands to Lose Billions From Coronavirus

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/...oncerts-coronavirus-risks-losses-965482/


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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Originally Posted by Mike Rivers
And another big one down - the NAB show has been cancelled on account of virus panic. First no-show for them in nearly 100 years of shows. Says here: "We are currently considering a number of potential alternatives to create the best possible experience for our community."


I've been talking for the last 15 years about why there should be a shift to virtual trade shows, and all the elements needed to make them successful. Maybe people will listen to me now smile

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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Originally Posted by Anderton

I've been talking for the last 15 years about why there should be a shift to virtual trade shows, and all the elements needed to make them successful. Maybe people will listen to me now smile


I hope not. In a sense, we have virtual trade shows (at least in our trade) now in the plethora of videos of booth visits, and the "show reports" in magazines like Mix or Recording where there's a two sentence description of new and old products. I like to think that my virtual trade shows (reports) are better, but they're pretty limited in scope. What I do at shows is talk one-on-one with the exhibitors and learn enough about their products so that I can explain them to others. How's that going to be if virtualized? Make an appointment to put on goggles and talk with Glen Coleman about how his insert switching on his new monitor controller works? And I can read preprints of papers on line, but panel discussions are interactive both among panelists and audience, so how's that going to work? And then there's the informal meetings at the hotel bars.

What's your concept of a virtual trade show? Maybe my virtual experience is too limited to conceive of how a virtual trade show could work for me.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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Well, there was no visible sign of concern at the concert I saw on Friday night, where nearly 1,900 people attended, but since then the D.C. Health Dept. issued this -

DC Health Advisory
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
(Washington, DC) – DC Health recommends that non-essential mass gatherings, including conferences and conventions, be postponed or cancelled. Mass gatherings are defined as events where 1,000 or more people congregate in a specific location. We also recommend that any social, cultural, or entertainment events where large crowds are anticipated be reconsidered by the organizer. This recommendation is in effect through March 31.

Pretty much every major concert venue in the city holds more than 1,000 people. Cherry Blossom Festival is cancelled, which is a big blow to D.C. tourism. Over 200 churches in the D.C. are closing for the next two weeks. Several major universities have gone over to online classes, and local schools are looking at schedule changes, even possible shutdowns.

While I support self-quarantining if you're sick, and avoiding large crowds if you're not, this goes well beyond the impact on the entertainment industry.

In this area, there are a lot of school-age children who count on a school lunch as their most dependable, and possibly heathy meal of the day, and I know that's not just happening here. Older people whose only social activity centers around their place of worship are going to be increasingly isolated. I'm far less concerned about being shut out of a basketball tournament, or even missing a concert, than I am about hungry kids, and lonely elders.


"Monsters are real, and Ghosts are real too. They live inside us, and sometimes, they win." Stephen King

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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I work in community theatre; we have a show scheduled for early next month: ~8000 audience members (in a 1400 seat theater) over the course of the weekend.

Current impacts: local universities have shut down campuses, are extending spring break, and then plan on holding classes remotely. This leaves a few of our cast members without local housing.

Potential future impacts: obviously, sick cast or crew members is a possibility, but I think a more likely impact is that our state health dept will recommend that large gatherings be canceled, and/or our venue will make the decision to cancel events that overlaps with our show weekend.

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Just this morning, American Public Radio's Marketplace Tech Report was about the cancellation of trade shows, the potential for virtual trade shows pro-and-con, and a bonus for musicians who have been losing work because of gig cancellations - doing virtual shows on Twitch.



Anyone remember sales weasel Jeff Klopmeyer, aka musician Zak Klaxton, who used to post on Harmony Central and do shows on Second Life? What went around once might be going around again.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Winston Psmith #3032936 03/12/20 04:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Winston Psmith

DC Health Advisory
Wednesday, March 11, 2020



D.C. is under a state of emergency and a public health emergency, a move that comes after health officials announced a jump in the number of new coronavirus cases on Wednesday.

From IMP's website :

While we wake up every day looking forward to welcoming fans into our venues, D.C.’s Mayor Bowser has just recommended that gatherings of 1,000 or more people be suspended until March 31. After tonight, to be cautious, we are postponing all I.M.P. events scheduled at the 9:30 Club, Lincoln Theatre and The Anthem, as well as shows 9:30 Club Presents at U Street Music Hall, regardless of the size of the gathering. Shows will begin again April 1.

I think postponements will go longer than expected...


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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Originally Posted by Mike Rivers
What's your concept of a virtual trade show? Maybe my virtual experience is too limited to conceive of how a virtual trade show could work for me.

It is smile

I didn't go to AES last year. Sure, there's something to be said for being able to kick tires and hang out at the Marriott bar...I get that. But at what cost? How many times have you said "I'd go to XYZ, but I can't afford it?"

I'd rather go to a virtual AES than not go at all, and the current haphazard approach to show coverage is nothing compared to what a coordinated effort would be. NAMM reaches 100,000 people. How many people would attend a virtual trade show? I think millions.

For me, "virtual trade show" isn't a buzzword based on VR, it's a complete strategy that involves multiple facets, and addresses pretty much all of your concerns. This isn't the time or place to get into the details, but I've refined the concept a lot over the last 15 years. The final pieces of technology needed to do what I think is necessary are falling into place, too.

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I keep going back and forth on whether these measures are too extreme, but one thing's for certain: if you are going to go full-court-press on cancellations, better to do it at the beginning (assuming it works!) and have a short period of intense inconvenience, rather than a long period of constant, long-term inconvenience.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032953 03/12/20 05:47 PM
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Madison, Wisconsin's Between the Waves conference and festival just got postponed to October...too bad, it's such a cool event. I always look forward to it. Then again, with SynthPlex being moved to October, it's shaping up to be a fun Fall smile

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032962 03/12/20 06:41 PM
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I just had a gig cancelled. A once-per-year pool party for the same client we've played for over 10 consecutive years. They are such a good customer, I didn't even take a deposit. I probably would have returned it anyway as it seems the right thing to do for a long-term customer.

So the economic downturn has hit me. frown

I guess it could be worse.

Notes


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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032965 03/12/20 06:51 PM
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Personally, I don't think this coronavirus can be contained. It's too late for that. We have no idea how many people who have it are 'at large'.

It's like starting with a penny on a checkerboard, and going through the squares one at a time doubling your money. In the end you'll have well over a million dollars.

Since the incubation can take a few days, and since some with a mild case will think they just have a cold or the flu, there are plenty of pennies out there.

I think your best defense is to stay as healthy as you can and personally, I believe a healthy mindset will help.

Panic won't help you, and neither will ignoring it. Use your common sense.

Insights and incites by Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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Yeah, it looks like a tsunami of cancellations is just coming ashore. The NBA suspension of the season might have been one of the major catalysts.

My friends, family, and acquaintances are coming down on both sides of the great divide between the Safety First folks and the The Sky is Falling sceptics. Interesting that this divide seems to have a pretty heavy correlation between the more liberal people falling on one side, the more conservative on the other. You can figure out for yourself which general persuasion falls on which side of the virus divide. That's all I'll say about that to avoid veering off the road into the muddy fields of politics -

It's a conundrum, isn't it? If the virus peters out in the relative short term, one side will say "see, the radical measures to contain were justified by their success" while the other side will say, "see, it was nothing much after all, just like we've been saying."

One thing is for certain - cancel your visits to the Retirement Home by all means.

nat

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032967 03/12/20 06:59 PM
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We went to the Harry Connick, Jr. show last night at Hobby Center, in the 2650-seat theater which was mostly or completely full. Harry himself said he wasn't sure anyone would be there. (Dave Doerfler knows this venue in a way as it's where TTB has played the last couple of times they've come through town.) I wasn't crazy about being there with all those people, but we had front row seats and mostly kept our distance.

Yet earlier in the day, they canceled the remainder of the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. Outside of the area, you may not think this is a big deal, but it's huge. Start with the big-name concerts and see all the acts that just got canceled in the first section, and then see the other acts that did get to play before the cancellation. Overall, the event has over 35,000 volunteers that help it run. In other words, cancelling the next two weeks of it is a huge blow to Houston. "In 2017, attendance reached a record high of 2,611,176 people and 33,000 volunteers." Take that, SXSW. (just kidding, sucks for them and Austin, too.)

Like the Connick show, a number of the local non-profit promoters are saying their shows are still going on, but I don't know how long that will last. I'm leaning towards minimizing these events for a while and let things cool off and get under control.

As far as the NBA, I am always watching those guys in amazement, licking their fingers and then handling the ball, the amount of contact between players, taking out mouthguards and putting them in their socks, etc., so that's definitely a sport that should shut down for a while.

[Linked Image from sports.cbsimg.net]

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3032976 03/12/20 07:45 PM
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Major League Baseball has cancelled spring training and delayed opening day by at least 2 weeks. My baseball nut friend who just attended a spring training game last weekend is going to be pissed.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Nowarezman #3032997 03/12/20 10:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Nowarezman
My friends, family, and acquaintances are coming down on both sides of the great divide between the Safety First folks and the The Sky is Falling sceptics.


Well, as I mentioned, sometimes there are no good alternatives...only less bad ones.

If the Safety First folks have it wrong, there will have been a huge amount of economic distress for nothing. If they're right, the economy will still be wrecked, but if the virus is stopped in its tracks, then the economy will recover fairly quickly.

If the Sky Is Falling Skeptics have it wrong, then the degree of havoc - both economic and in terms of health - will be devastating. If they're right, then we won't have to go through painful disruptions.

So to me, it looks the skeptics are placing an all-or-nothing bet, while the safety first folks are betting that no matter what, the end result will be somewhere between all and nothing.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033008 03/12/20 11:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
[quote=Nowarezman]

So to me, it looks the skeptics are placing an all-or-nothing bet, while the safety first folks are betting that no matter what, the end result will be somewhere between all and nothing.


You need to go on Fox News and say this. smile

nat

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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California cancelled all gatherings of 250 people or more through the end of March at least. Every concert venue I've ever been to is emailing me that all shows are cancelled.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033034 03/13/20 02:50 AM
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I'm a public speaker and conferences are cancelling due to Coronavirus.. One of my mid-March conferences just cancelled this morning. Probably creating a nightmare scenario for meeting planners, hotels and conference centers. How do they recover? Might lead to litigious situations. We'll see.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
SteveCoscia #3033041 03/13/20 03:10 AM
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Originally Posted by SteveCoscia
Might lead to litigious situations. We'll see.


Probably not, most contracts have a [I]force majeure[i] clause that lets you off the hook for "acts of God." The problem is if people have made down payments, which may or not be refunded, or held until a date that was postponed

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033044 03/13/20 03:42 AM
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Hopefully the virus will not begin ripping through the homeless population.

I work at a school, and we are taking tons of precautions, including canceling events, wiping down everything we touch on a daily basis, and more.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033055 03/13/20 09:52 AM
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So we just booked a May 2 show at a venue with a capacity of 750-1500 depending on the show and whether they open upper levels, etc. Meanwhile public events are supposed to be canceled that are 1000 or more people. So I guess we need to limit admission to 999. [sarcasm]I guess we'll just have to disappoint some fans[/sarcasm]. cool


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
J. Dead #3033080 03/13/20 02:20 PM
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A few of my friends have also had gigs cancelled.

It's not as big a Disney shutting down, but I think it hurts the small guy living week-to week proportionally as much, perhaps even more.

This too will pass, so we just have to try to make good decisions and hope for a little luck as well.

Notes


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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033086 03/13/20 02:51 PM
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I just got back from a quick two day trip to Sweetwater.

Travel was surprisingly easy. I got upgraded to First both ways, which most certainly helped. Good to be a Million Miler.... w00t thu

The airports felt surprisingly normal, actually. Lotta Purell smell in O’Hare (dispensers all over the place), and there’s definitely a different vibe in the air…but folks seemed to be generally just doing their thing.

Light traffic home from LAX at 7PM was odd. That never, ever happens. idk

dB

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033095 03/13/20 03:55 PM
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News just hit Austin of two confirmed cases - the school district called a 4:00am to say school was canceled. The panickers overwhelmed the grocery stores early this morning and even as I type are wiping out supplies of all sorts of crazy stuff (toilet paper?? Bottled water???).

Isn't America supposed to be the home of the brave?

nat

EDIT: slight amendation: the technical definition of the status of diagnoses is "presumptive positive" meaning specimens were sent to a state lab and were found positive. But apparently the diagnosis is not considered absolutely "confirmed" until CDC has a look at it, too. News reports also say the infections were not caused by contact with local people. But the authorities are quick to point out that the spread of the thing locally is to be expected at any time.

Here we go.....


Last edited by Nowarezman; 03/13/20 04:01 PM.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033102 03/13/20 04:54 PM
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An important interview, please watch this. A specialist on infectious diseases speaks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZF...tWoQvta8KS40AX8kl53VLFkyA_SMEIyOY1EoH478


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033118 03/13/20 06:47 PM
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The tally is up - 3 gigs cancelled, another questionable - the committee is in a meeting.

The good thing about playing one-nighters at retirement communities is that 2 gigs a week pays like 4 to 5 nights in a restaurant or lounge. However each night that cancels means a half week pay gone.

Since these have all been good clients, I'm applying their deposits to the next time they book us. It just seems the right thing to do.

Insights and incites by "getting hungry" Notes


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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
KuruPrionz #3033128 03/13/20 07:27 PM
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Originally Posted by KuruPrionz
An important interview, please watch this. A specialist on infectious diseases speaks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZF...tWoQvta8KS40AX8kl53VLFkyA_SMEIyOY1EoH478


Wow. If this guy really does know what he's talking about...and he sounds like he does...

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033149 03/13/20 09:19 PM
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Posted this elsewhere, but worth repeating here -

Locally (Montgomery County, Maryland, right above Washington, D.C.), we had the first 3 reported cases in the state of Maryland, a couple in their 70's and a woman in her 50's, all of whom had recently been on a Nile River cruise. All 3 have recovered, are testing negative for the virus, and have been released from quarantine. There's also an apparently confirmed report of a 100-year-old man in China who has recovered. I suspect he'll be an outlier, but still . . .

Like the great Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over 'til it's over!" so stay smart, stay safe, and don't panic.


"Monsters are real, and Ghosts are real too. They live inside us, and sometimes, they win." Stephen King

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033207 03/14/20 04:47 AM
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Was booked to play a gig in Fresno CA, a reunion of a band I was in 33 years ago.

They cancelled the show this evening and closed the club until further notice.

We had plane tickets but also refund insurance so catastrophe averted, disappointment is real...


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033211 03/14/20 05:20 AM
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Here's a side effect I didn't expect: A magazine asked me not to submit a column for the next issue. A lot of their revenue comes from newsstand and particularly, airport kiosk sales. They figure that source of income is going to tank, and they want to tighten the budget as much as possible. I offered to do a column for free to make life a little easier for them, but haven't heard back yet..

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
KuruPrionz #3033212 03/14/20 05:21 AM
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Originally Posted by KuruPrionz
We had plane tickets but also refund insurance

This is why I book on Southwest whenever possible, I can use my plane fare to SynthPlex any time within the next year. They don't charge for the first couple bags, either smile

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033228 03/14/20 07:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Originally Posted by KuruPrionz
An important interview, please watch this. A specialist on infectious diseases speaks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZF...tWoQvta8KS40AX8kl53VLFkyA_SMEIyOY1EoH478


Wow. If this guy really does know what he's talking about...and he sounds like he does...


Yeah - it's pretty basic stuff. We've been hearing that the big overall fatality percentage is approx. 1% of those infected. Since the number of infections appears low in the U.S., most folks seem to be taking that as a "what me worry?" go-ahead.

The wildcard is, "how many people will be infected before this thing runs its course?".

U.S.A. has a population (rounding here) of 330 million. Mr. Osterholm cites a prediction of 96 million cases. So that's 29% of the population. Of the 96 million, 1/2 will need hospitalization (that's news to me!!). And of the 96 million, 1/2% (480,000) people will die from the disease.

So, simple math here...480,000 is 0.5% of those infected. So that is conservative versus the 1% I hear tossed around by the talking heads.

Now the 480,000 represents 0.1455% of the total 330 million. So the big picture is that the chances are really low that any particular person will die from this disease, considering the entire population.

But of course, the true chance of fatality is not spread evenly with each individual actually having 0.1455% chance. It breaks down into risk groups and we've all heard the basics on that - but Mr. Osterholm does point out that the "common wisdom" that this is an "old person's disease" may be far off base. However he does say that the very young seem to be doing pretty well, even if infected.

So it seems pretty clear to me at least - keeping down the number of people who get infected is the big factor. And individual choices have a lot to do with the risk of infection - 'tho there are many who have no choice, like healthcare folks unless they want to quit their jobs.

Job one around here is just to try and stay away from other people as much as possible - at least the 3 feet that's advised, with 30 feet and up being preferable.

I don't quite get why he vacillates on the question of closing schools or not. People will cope - the kids, once it's in the school, will spread it to nigh every kid in the school, right? And then on home, etc etc. Seems to me you have to close the schools once the thing shows up.

nat

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033229 03/14/20 07:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Originally Posted by KuruPrionz
We had plane tickets but also refund insurance

This is why I book on Southwest whenever possible, I can use my plane fare to SynthPlex any time within the next year. They don't charge for the first couple bags, either smile


Thanks, I've used Southwest.
Seattle to SF we took the lowest price. SF to Fresno wasn't too bad, usually higher.

Done deal now. Certainly a consieration in the future. :- D


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033261 03/14/20 01:06 PM
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I've read that age is much less of a factor than the underlying conditions. It just so happens that the older people have more of those. I suspect that there are many people here in the U.S who might have them and don't know it. How many do you think who don't get regular physicals, who are obese, might be pre-diabetic or diabetic, have heart disease, etc., and don't know it?

Here's something I want to remind people of. Depending where you live, you can still go outside, you can go for a walk, you can work on your yard. This isn't China, you're not restricted by the government to stay inside. If you live in a place like NYC, yes, I'd say you should stay in or be very careful about going out. But I live in what's basically a suburb (though it's inside Houston city limits) and can go out for a walk or run in my neighborhood without going near anyone. Heck, you can go for a drive in your car and see stuff (I hear Texas Wildflowers are starting to show well) without violating the social distance. The only problem is that I'm low on gas. grin


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033275 03/14/20 03:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Originally Posted by KuruPrionz
We had plane tickets but also refund insurance

This is why I book on Southwest whenever possible, I can use my plane fare to SynthPlex any time within the next year. They don't charge for the first couple bags, either smile

I got a notification from the United folks a few weeks back that they'd basically be doing the same thing. Any changes will not incur any fees, no matter what class of ticket.

dB

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Nowarezman #3033288 03/14/20 04:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Nowarezman
Job one around here is just to try and stay away from other people as much as possible...

I do that anyway, so no big deal smile

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Dave Bryce #3033329 03/14/20 07:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave Bryce

I got a notification from the United folks a few weeks back that they'd basically be doing the same thing. Any changes will not incur any fees, no matter what class of ticket.


Read the United fine print. Their first announcement was pretty liberal, but a few days later they revised it to restrict the time period it applied to both for when the ticket was purchased and when you were flying. I thought I could take advantage of a good fare sale and book my flights now for the NAMM show next January, and then fine tune the dates or cancel if I decided not to go (outrageous hotel rates, worse than ever). But when I read the rules, there was something that would keep it from qualifying for the waived change or cancellation fees. I guess too many people tried to do what I was going to do.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Mike Rivers #3033332 03/14/20 07:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Mike Rivers
Originally Posted by Dave Bryce

I got a notification from the United folks a few weeks back that they'd basically be doing the same thing. Any changes will not incur any fees, no matter what class of ticket.


Read the United fine print. Their first announcement was pretty liberal, but a few days later they revised it to restrict the time period it applied to both for when the ticket was purchased and when you were flying. I thought I could take advantage of a good fare sale and book my flights now for the NAMM show next January, and then fine tune the dates or cancel if I decided not to go (outrageous hotel rates, worse than ever). But when I read the rules, there was something that would keep it from qualifying for the waived change or cancellation fees. I guess too many people tried to do what I was going to do.


The big print giveth and the fine print taketh away!!!


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033347 03/14/20 08:57 PM
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Just remember going in that United will never do anything that benefits you.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033354 03/14/20 09:17 PM
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yeahthat

the days of "Fly the Friendly Skies of United" are long gone frown


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Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033371 03/14/20 10:22 PM
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I'll offer different perspectives (as is pretty typical since I'm a weirdo).

I am a special ed. teacher. School closures are fine and good, but they affect students in special education differently. Learning remotely? Haha. I am supposed to report back for a week while students do not attend class. But after that....I can't really teach remotely. Do we have our students come back amidst a coronavirus crisis? Or what happens to them? Will they regress significantly if they are out of school for too long? Do some teachers get to work at home while others continue to come in to school? How long will that occur for? How long will schools be closed? When China stomped on the Wuhan crisis by quarantining the entire city, they saw a drop-off. The "flatten the curve" scenario (and if you don't know what this is, you should look this up, as this will explain why quarantining is so important). But the drop-off took a while, over three months. If we go for hardcore quarantining, we may be looking at 3-4 months as well. And that's assuming that the cat's not already out of the bag and our government can get a handle on this and do the right thing. I won't comment further on how confident I am of that because that gets into political territory.

Taking kids out of school and leaving them at home is also not without its controversy. While "flattening the curve" is what we want so that health professionals can handle the situation better, there is the thought that, well, people have to work, and much of the kids will be left with grandparents or older people at home...you know, the very population that may be immunocompromised.

Another thing to consider are homeless people. If the coronavirus gets to the homeless population, it will tear through them, they will not get medical help. This needs to be addressed swiftly and promptly so this does not occur. Easier said than done, I know. This will depend largely on federal funding, as county and local authorities don't have much money, and rely mostly on federal aid for help. So this too is largely the function of the feds.

I have lots of other thoughts on this, but that's enough for now.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033372 03/14/20 10:23 PM
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These words will be the new buzzwords of 2020. And we're only in March, so don't worry, there will be more.

Self-quarantine
Pandemic
Immunocompromised
Vectors of Transmission
Hoarding
Panic Buying
Epic Costco Smackdowns
Bidet
Social Distancing
Elbow Bumps
Face-touching
Rudy Gobert
Denial
Zero Risk Bias

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
KenElevenShadows #3033376 03/14/20 10:39 PM
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Originally Posted by KenElevenShadows
I'll offer different perspectives (as is pretty typical since I'm a weirdo).

I am a special ed. teacher. School closures are fine and good, but they affect students in special education differently. Learning remotely? Haha. I am supposed to report back for a week while students do not attend class. But after that....I can't really teach remotely. Do we have our students come back amidst a coronavirus crisis? Or what happens to them? Will they regress significantly if they are out of school for too long? Do some teachers get to work at home while others continue to come in to school? How long will that occur for? How long will schools be closed? When China stomped on the Wuhan crisis by quarantining the entire city, they saw a drop-off. The "flatten the curve" scenario (and if you don't know what this is, you should look this up, as this will explain why quarantining is so important). But the drop-off took a while, over three months. If we go for hardcore quarantining, we may be looking at 3-4 months as well. And that's assuming that the cat's not already out of the bag and our government can get a handle on this and do the right thing. I won't comment further on how confident I am of that because that gets into political territory.

Taking kids out of school and leaving them at home is also not without its controversy. While "flattening the curve" is what we want so that health professionals can handle the situation better, there is the thought that, well, people have to work, and much of the kids will be left with grandparents or older people at home...you know, the very population that may be immunocompromised.

Another thing to consider are homeless people. If the coronavirus gets to the homeless population, it will tear through them, they will not get medical help. This needs to be addressed swiftly and promptly so this does not occur. Easier said than done, I know. This will depend largely on federal funding, as county and local authorities don't have much money, and rely mostly on federal aid for help. So this too is largely the function of the feds.

I have lots of other thoughts on this, but that's enough for now.


Yes, super important points. I truly don't think our society is up to the challenge. Maybe after a few more pandemics, we'll start to get the message. An entire infrastructure needs to be worked on and worked up to an extent that can't be done except over a long time frame. 'Till that sort of situation develops, the inequities and between-the-cracks situations, and access issues and fairness issues and the extra sufferings of the disadvantaged and marginalized will mostly remain items for raging discussions but not action items for a significant time period.

I won't discuss this next comment, and I'm not inviting discussion. Just setting a private homework project for those interested - check out if there is any correlation between the countries that have had the best response to this pandemic situation, and the type of overall healthcare system in place in the "best responder" countries.

nat

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033420 03/15/20 05:20 AM
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I completely agree, nat.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033425 03/15/20 05:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Just remember going in that United will never do anything that benefits you.


Unless it benefits them too!!!! :- D


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033455 03/15/20 01:58 PM
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I figure most of us will eventually be exposed.

With the number of people exhibiting no or mild symptoms, you won't know if the person you just fist-bumped, or served your lunch, or gave you a receipt, or made change on a purchase, or touched the doorknob before you is a modern day equivalent of "Typhoid Mary".

Also with the number of those unreported reported people with little or no symptoms, the actual death rate is probably lower than what is being reported. How much? There is no way to know.

So since we are all going to be exposed IMO the action to take is to err on the side of caution but don't go to the extreme or panic mode. The logical thing in my mind is to delay it as long as possible, because as time goes by the medical industry will know more about having to treat it.

I'm normally a healthy person, I catch a mild cold once every 15 years or so, and I can't remember the last time I had the flu (1980s?). So I figure if I get it, most likely it will be a mild case. But by keeping my immune system strong, perhaps, like the flu or a cold, I won't even get it.

I do know as of now, I've lost a half month of income, and so has my wife, due to gig cancellations. But I feel lucky, some have fared much worse.

Good luck to all (myself included)

Insights and incites by Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033568 03/16/20 04:59 AM
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Bars and restaurants to be closed indefinitley in WA, CA, OH, IL and MA - five states. That is the news as of today.

Gatherings of 50 or more are also shut down.
So here I am in WA with no gigs anymore until who knows when.
Time to start selling a backlog of stuffs!!!! I've been wanting too, now it is not optional.

https://tdn.com/news/state-and-regi...e3eabb0-4066-5b68-be6f-3a57f0745fe9.html


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033622 03/16/20 05:36 PM
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Nashville is closing all the bars on lower Broadway. Music City without music...

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033657 03/16/20 08:28 PM
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San Francisco under orders to stay home for three weeks, starting at midnight tonight.

😳

https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-lockdown-coronavirus-disease-bay-area-2020-3

dB

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033681 03/16/20 10:37 PM
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It's just a matter of time until Los Angeles does that, I think.

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033685 03/16/20 10:54 PM
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I think “indefinitely” is better than an arbitrary 2 or 3 weeks and then have to extend it. Either way it sucks.

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033768 03/17/20 02:15 PM
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I've lost all my gigs for the rest of March and April except for two in late April that haven't cancelled (yet), and my weekly outdoor restaurant gig.

I don't know how long the restaurant gig will last, as the crowds are thinning, and the county is talking about shuttering all bars and restaurants.

On the dim side, that's two months out of work, possibly more - no sick leave - no unemployment insurance.

On the bright side (1) It limits my exposure to a potentially infected person and (2) It gives me more time to work on my "moonlighting" business of making style 'disks' and fake 'disks' for Band-in-a-Box (of course the money won't come in until the 'disks' are finished and released).

On the bright side (again), Leilani and I are still healthy.

These are unusual times.

Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Notes_Norton #3033770 03/17/20 02:18 PM
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Maryland and Washington, D.C. have closed all bars and clubs. As of yesterday, restaurants were restricted to carry-out only, but that may have changed already.


"Monsters are real, and Ghosts are real too. They live inside us, and sometimes, they win." Stephen King

http://www.novparolo.com
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033792 03/17/20 04:52 PM
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I wonder what will happen when many companies realize they don't actually need buildings to act as cages for employees, and that when people work from home, productivity can often increase. Maybe one result of the coronavirus will be a lot of companies downsizing their office space when leases expire.

When I was running EM back in the late 80s, there was an employee who worked out of the Berkeley office. Whenever the deadlines were really tight, I sent him home to work so he wouldn't be distracted by phone calls and meetings.

The publisher was not happy about this - "How do you know he's actually working?" To which my reply was "because I'll have the article first thing tomorrow morning, if not tonight."

Granted, some people will goof off at home. But I've seen plenty of people working in an office goof off, too. I think you should judge an employee's effectiveness by their productivity and effectiveness, not where they do their work.

IMHO the corona virus is going to have a lot of long-term impacts people aren't considering, and some of those changes will be beneficial. Wouldn't it be great if rush hour wasn't as much of an issue due to people working at home and flex time?

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033820 03/17/20 06:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
IMHO the corona virus is going to have a lot of long-term impacts people aren't considering, and some of those changes will be beneficial. Wouldn't it be great if rush hour wasn't as much of an issue due to people working at home and flex time?

I am "essential personnel" where I work downtown DC. I will be commuting from MD suburbs where I have raised my kids until told otherwise. Traffic is way down, and the parking garage is half empty. Normally the garage is an absolute mess, always oversold.


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033854 03/17/20 08:46 PM
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Bars and restaurants close at 1700 today all over NC, but can provide take-out service. Governor set a limit of 100 people for any public gathering. The President's Task Force is indicating 10+ people. My church did hold service this past Sunday, but cancelling tomorrow night. Sunday primary service will be streamed on FaceBook, with pastor, audio/video person, music director singing with acoustic guitar, and youth pastor on drum.

I haven't done any multimedia production, but am thinking about doing Bible study on FB and/or YouTube. I have the necessary equipment, just haven't learned exactly how to put it together.

At 77 and with COPD, I am being STRONGLY encouraged (by my wife, who is a retired RN) to stay home completely for the next couple of weeks. My primary commercial business client I can VPN to the site and remotely fix some things if needed. We are getting a grocery list together to have store-picked and delivered.

Some stores are beginning to have the idea of an your first opening for seniors only to shop. Hope the local grocery stores get into that.

Dare County, NC (think the Outer Banks) closed off ALL visitors going into the county as of 1400 this afternoon. Permits to enter will be issued to residents, those who work in the county, and those who live in/work in Ocracoke and other areas which can only be reached through the county (I'm assuming that food/gas/etc delivery drivers will still have access, the news story did not say)


Howard Grand|Hamm SK1-73|Kurz PC2|PC2X|PC3|PC3X|PC361; QSC K10's
HP DAW|Epi Les Paul & LP 5-str bass|iPad mini2
"Now faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen."
Jim
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033893 03/18/20 02:04 AM
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I've been reading about the situation in Italy, which is pretty horrifying. I wrote to one of my friends at IK Multimedia, which is in Modena (southeast of Milan, and close to the hottest hot spots), to ask if things are as bad as the media says it is. He replied:

The situation is definitely critical in Italy now, especially because of the immense stress this is putting on the hospitals and in general to the health structure.
Luckily nobody in the company has been affected up to now, and same for all the families, we’re almost all working from home these days.

Our suggestion from here is not to underestimate this thing, please please do whatever you can to limit the spreading.


Bottom line is if I was in some Italian towns and needed hospital treatment to survive, I'd be dead. I'm older than the cutoff for "do we save this guy, or do we save someone else." They'd pick the mom with the kids over me, and I can't say that I'd blame them.

Last week there were 1,000 confirmed cases in the US, and tonight there are 5,500. Granted only a small percentage actually die, but a small percentage of a large number is an uncomfortably large number, and it's spreading fast. I think my Italian friend is right, we have to be careful not to underestimate what's happening. It's been estimated we're about 10 days behind Italy in terms of the virus's progress, so I guess we'll find out soon enough.

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033905 03/18/20 04:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Last week there were 1,000 confirmed cases in the US, and tonight there are 5,500.

Correction, the latest count is now 6,500.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033934 03/18/20 11:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
Originally Posted by Anderton
Last week there were 1,000 confirmed cases in the US, and tonight there are 5,500.

Correction, the latest count is now 6,500.
And I've seen several reports of people being sick but not being tested for it, because they're only testing those who have traveled recently or who have been exposed to a confirmed case. So the actual number of cases is higher, no one knows how much. frown


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Joe Muscara #3033970 03/18/20 04:40 PM
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7,500 this morning. I think it's important to put matters into perspective, and remember that only a small percentage of people will actually die from the virus. Of course that's not a comforting thought if there are a lot of cases...I guess it's like going into a casino with a 97% chance of winning. It could be a lot worse.

The one thing I keep bringing up is the productivity hit that happens if people are sick for a month or so. Even when I was sick with whatever I had, I was able to get some work done - just very inefficiently. If companies really get their acts together about allowing people to work from home and offer flex time to others, any economic recovery will happen faster.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3033997 03/18/20 07:29 PM
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Things seem to be getting a little absurd here. Now they've shut down restaurants for seating and are only allowing them to do take-out or delivery business, no more than four customers in at a time. I thought I'd try the concept and ordered a burrito bowl on line from what's been a pretty decent chain fast casual Mexican restaurant, then went over to pick it up. After waiting outside for about 5 minutes for my turn to go in, it turned out that they had no record of my order. Fortunately my credit card hadn't been charged, either, so I ordered it there and then got an argument when I asked for the free chips and queso promo for on-line ordering. They said "that's only for on-line orders" and I said "But I ordered on line - you just didn't get the order." So she gave me the chips and queso. But what a hassle! And the food wasn't very good either.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034006 03/18/20 09:01 PM
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The problem is we don't know yet what will turn out to be prudent and what will turn out to be stupid. Certainly, cases continue to increase, but the question is when will it peak...if it peaks this week, we're in pretty good shape. If it peaks in May, it's a problem.

I've heard quite a few opinions that, well, only a small percentage of people will die so we don't have to screw up the economy for everyone else in the process. So the question I have is suppose you went into a casino, and were told that you could win lots of money just like before - in fact the odds were now 97% in your favor that you'd win at least something! However...if you lost, there was a 3% chance you would be killed painfully over the course of a week or so. I like the idea of 97% odds, but I still don't think I'd go into that casino.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034008 03/18/20 09:08 PM
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I do have VPN access to my largest commercial client, and can do some computer and network stuff remotely. Otherwise, I'm staying at home like recommended. Our church will be streaming the service on FB, with no one there except the pastors and worship leader. The praise team has been told to stay home (singers and musicians). I may stream my bible study lesson if I can work out all the details.

Wife and I got out first time since Sunday, about a mile to Food Lion, had placed an on-line order, lady got the signature for the credit card on a tablet, then loaded the groceries in the car. Walmart grocery here had so many orders lined up already yesterday that it was over a week until next opening.

I'm not panicking at all, but I'm also not stupid. Washed hand quite thoroughly with soap and hot water after unloading. All bars and restaurants in NC are take-out only, at least for a while. I happen to agree, and frankly the beaches in Florida and Myrtle Beach should be closed by government order. I had no idea what a "novel" virus was until this morning - just had seen the term. It means one that had not affected humans at all previously, was found only in some sort of animal, mutated enough to infect a single human (or very few), then mutated there enough to pass from one human to another. The President is correct in saying that this is a "war." It is also one that we can't afford to lose. My wife is retired RN, one daughter is MSN working at local hospital. If there are too many bad cases at once, wartime type triage has to be used when cases overwhelm equipment and personnel available.

I don't like news media trying to terrorize people (or place blame - right now all we need to know is that it has happened), but this is a serious matter. I'm also old enough (77) to have gone through some serious matters before. I was a kid when the word polio was very fearful. We are going to need a World War II type of working together and bearing some hardships to make it.


Howard Grand|Hamm SK1-73|Kurz PC2|PC2X|PC3|PC3X|PC361; QSC K10's
HP DAW|Epi Les Paul & LP 5-str bass|iPad mini2
"Now faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen."
Jim
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
MoodyBluesKeys #3034010 03/18/20 09:13 PM
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Originally Posted by MoodyBluesKeys
We are going to need a World War II type of working together and bearing some hardships to make it.
My friend Martha called and raised an interesting point: for the first time, the entire world is on the same page. Maybe that will lead to something good.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034018 03/18/20 09:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
The problem is we don't know yet what will turn out to be prudent and what will turn out to be stupid. Certainly, cases continue to increase, but the question is when will it peak...if it peaks this week, we're in pretty good shape. If it peaks in May, it's a problem.

I've heard quite a few opinions that, well, only a small percentage of people will die so we don't have to screw up the economy for everyone else in the process. So the question I have is suppose you went into a casino, and were told that you could win lots of money just like before - in fact the odds were now 97% in your favor that you'd win at least something! However...if you lost, there was a 3% chance you would be killed painfully over the course of a week or so. I like the idea of 97% odds, but I still don't think I'd go into that casino.


The obvious problem is that we can only know the results of the course of action that is taken.
We can speculate on what would have happened "if" but it's just a bunch of jibber jabber - meaningless.

I have zero expertise in communicable diseases and public safety. Even if I had a great idea it is doubtful it would get any consideration.
I'm used to being a loner, was not especially social when we were gigging all the time.
If I stay well, I should get a considerable backlog of projects reduced to something less insane.


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034020 03/18/20 10:08 PM
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They've banned live music here - saying it "draws crowds" (which we do).

The entire tourism industry is shut down, bars, restaurants are take-out only, malls and downtowns are ghost towns, museums are shuttered, public beaches are closed, and that means a lot of other people are out of work.

That means I'm unemployed probably until at least August, and if the band ban lifts then, I probably still won't find work until mid-October as from August to mid October is historically dead time here in South Florida.

There is a bright side (I guess). With no work, and living on savings for an undetermined amount of time, we're being frugal, and not going out much. Economic self-isolation. That'll probably keep us from getting sick.

So I guess we'll spend the time creating more aftermarket style "disks" and fake "disks" for Band-in-a-Box.

This too will pass and most of us will survive.

Insights and incites by Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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Sadly, dying isn't necessarily the worst part. Lots of the 20% (I guess that's still the number) are getting pneumonia and that is hitting them pretty hard. Even if you don't die from that, the recovery is pretty rough and having it is bad, too.

I was out today and had a few folks I didn't know around acting like $#!^ was normal, meaning they didn't keep their distance and they walked right by me or whatever before I had a chance to move away. That $#!^ really pisses me off. *You* may think there's nothing to worry about, but how about respecting my decisions to keep a distance???? mad


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Joe Muscara #3034060 03/19/20 03:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Joe Muscara
I was out today and had a few folks I didn't know around acting like $#!^ was normal, meaning they didn't keep their distance and they walked right by me or whatever before I had a chance to move away. That $#!^ really pisses me off. *You* may think there's nothing to worry about, but how about respecting my decisions to keep a distance???? mad

The problem is ignorance. People don't know how to do math, they don't know what "exponential" means, they don't know about compound interest. They say "Well there are only a few hundred people dead, what's the big deal?" They simply don't understand the concept of no one having immunity when something hadn't existed before, and the problems of a disease being highly contagious.

Even the under-40s who weren't worried because they thought the disease wouldn't affect them are finding that the process simply takes longer with younger people. There is so much we don't know, but we're all getting on-the-job training. In the last week, the global death toll was 4,600, tonight it's over 8,900. It was only about two weeks ago there were claimed to be only 15 confirmed cases in the US.

The good news: infections in China are slowing down, so at least we have some idea of how long this thing takes to run its course, at least for a first wave.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034100 03/19/20 02:16 PM
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As with many others I just had 3 gigs cancelled within 3 weeks. I am to a large part 'retired', and these were all retirement community gigs. I rotate between 4 plus such communities and a few scatter restaurant and private gigs. Three of those retirement communities had the cancellations I just mentioned, and I have a fourth community's gig next week, and understandably, anticipate that one will also not occur.
These for the most part were paying as much if not more than cafe/restaurant gigs

I have a son that's a full time musician but also an artist...his gigs have all but dried up, and he's trying to focus on some commercial art work...as he might find that available.

There is a massive amount of people; waiters, musicians, artists, street vendors, other restaurant works, venue/concert staff, etc. (even 'bouncers') who's income stream is almost immediately drying up....they are certainly cutting back on anything but essentials, and trying to figure out how to scrape up some income

There have been 'talks' about loans being available to 'small businesses'....not sure how that might help the self employed 'gigging' folks.
...yes we've heard 'some checks are coming' - a little bit to plug the hole in the dyke

As has been mentioned, we need to largest extent 'hunker down', hoping that if we are -ALL- doing this, the spread of this virus might be minimize, and in some ways be controllable
- there appears to be no 'good' answer at present...

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034108 03/19/20 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
<...snip...>
The problem is ignorance. People don't know how to do math, they don't know what "exponential" means, they don't know about compound interest. They say "Well there are only a few hundred people dead, what's the big deal?" They simply don't understand the concept of no one having immunity when something hadn't existed before, and the problems of a disease being highly contagious.<...>

Plus a certain media outlets disguised as news are downplaying the severity of the problem, telling people it's a hoax, overblown, nothing more than the flu, and an evil political plot. The propaganda is very good, and too many people believe it.

I've heard them talking about that. However, I think the tide is turning and those will get a taste of crow for dinner.

Notes


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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034217 03/20/20 02:27 AM
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The entire state of CA is now on lockdown.

Link

dB

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034223 03/20/20 02:54 AM
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Confirmed cases in the US have almost doubled in the past 24 hours.

I mentioned this to a few people and they downplayed it, saying "oh, well they're testing more people, of course more cases are going to show up."

Well, that doesn't put a smile on my face. If that's the case, it means a ton of infected people are running around, and we don't even know it...so that means it's probably spreading faster than anyone realizes. I 'm not looking forward to what happens in the next 10 days. I'm sure as hell not going anywhere in the outside world, just in case I have it.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034336 03/20/20 07:53 PM
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Yeah, the best way I've found to keep up with the numbers is on NPR. They have a sort of permanent article that's headed by a big map of the U.S. - click on it and you'll get the latest numbers of total confirmed cases and total deaths, and a breakdown state by state.

Craig's comment about the doubling of confirmed cases is reflected in the article - some 7,000 on Wednesday, some 13,300 on Thursday. (rounding due to memory margin of error:)

They tend to update the numbers around 8:30pm - Eastern I guess....

nat

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034340 03/20/20 08:04 PM
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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034341 03/20/20 08:04 PM
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So I shared this over on the KC as well:

http://www.musicrelief.org/

The local St. Louis music community has pulled together to support the industry including musicians and those affected in the service industry.

Basically they set up at a closed venue with no staff, one sound guy, and one videographer. They are letting musicians in on band at a time (no more than 10) and cleaning everything in between. They are live streaming all weekend for 28 hours. They've set up ways to donate money online during the event.


Last edited by J. Dead; 03/20/20 08:07 PM.

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034348 03/20/20 08:50 PM
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That's very cool. Thanks for making us aware of this, and hopefully inspiring others.

And yes, I donated smile

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034363 03/20/20 11:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
That's very cool. Thanks for making us aware of this, and hopefully inspiring others.

And yes, I donated smile

Yeah, even though it's local, as small as St. Louis is, it just shows what can be done in every market if people just pull together and make it happen.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034368 03/21/20 12:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton

I want to make sure this doesn't get overlooked. Confirmed US cases is closing in on 20,000. Two days ago it was 5,500. A deluge of corona virus cases are hitting New York hospitals, and we are far from the peak.

At this point, we no longer need to speculate whether the corona virus will follow an exponential rate of infection; it's happening now, in real time.

Walking around the devastation of the tornadoes in Nashville was surreal, but once it hit, it was done and it's not going to take out the rest of the city. This is different. Please, if you local government isn't smart enough to mandate that you stay at home, choose to do so yourself.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034370 03/21/20 01:13 AM
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I have a few neighbors who listen to politicized propaganda stations disguised as news media who swear either it's no worse than the flu, or it's a plot to take down the USA.

It's neither of those.

It's an infectious disease that can be spread by people with little or no symptoms or in it's long incubation phase before symptoms show up.

If one person infects two and each of those infects two the rise is exponential.

Yes it is like the flu, the 1918 "Spanish Flu" where there was no flu vaccine yet. 50-100 million died when the world population was about 1/4 what it is now.

I'm completely out of work, all my gigs have been cancelled, so I'm staying home as much as possible. I have plenty of work I can do around here.

Of course, being self-employed, that also means no income, but I'm sure others on this thread are in the same boat.

It's more important NOT to catch the disease, as with the for-profit health care system in the US, even if you do survive, you could very well spend more money than you would have lost by staying home.

Those who don't take it seriously might Darwin themselves out.

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Notes_Norton #3034377 03/21/20 03:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
I have a few neighbors who listen to politicized propaganda stations disguised as news media who swear either it's no worse than the flu, or it's a plot to take down the USA.

Maybe show them what's in Italics below, from a reader of Bob Lefsetz's newsletter...and mention that viruses have no political affiliation. They just want to infect as many people as possible so that they can propagate the species.

This is what is chilling to me.

FOUR weeks ago Italy had three known cases of the virus.

TWO weeks ago it had developed into 1700 cases and thirty four deaths. That did not seem too alarming to most people - TWO weeks ago

NOW there are 41,000 cases and 3400 deaths including 900 deaths in the last two days in Italy.

In the US today- 14,000 cases and 190 deaths.
[Edit - as of tonight, a day later, it's 19,650 with 283 deaths]

Where will we be in two weeks??


Admittedly Italy may be an extreme case, because my understanding is that the part of Italy being hit so hard has an older-than-average demographic, but still...

Last edited by Anderton; 03/21/20 03:09 AM.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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There's a lot of misinformation, but part of it is because there is still a lot we don't know. As they continue to gather data, the facts change.

I think at this point the important thing leading to what seem like otherwise drastic measures is just the fact that it is very contagious. The fact that so many people may not even have symptoms means that there is the possibility of it exponentially spreading without the kinds of measures we are taking. That said, as we do more testing and discover all of the previously undiagnosed cases, it's becoming clear that the death rate is much lower than previously estimated. That doesn't mean we shouldn't still continue with the precautions, just that it's some good news.

People are getting so sensitive that you can't give a shred of good new or else you're accused of being irresponsible. Then there's the other side loading up their garage with toilet paper. Everybody just settle down, be responsible, check out and verify info as it comes out, don't politicize or shame people, just try to be informed, educate, share, be responsible, and we'll all get through this,


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034401 03/21/20 07:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
And yes, I donated smile

Just realized I forgot to say THANK YOU! It is very much appreciated!

I know the guys who organized this - played with one of the guys a bunch, went to high school with one of the sound guys as well as the "cardinal cowboy" and know as well as have worked with and hired the sound guy. SO, if anybody is interested in doing something similar and needs any logistical details, I can probably find out anything you need to know. Just hit me up.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
J. Dead #3034404 03/21/20 11:32 AM
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Originally Posted by J. Dead
That said, as we do more testing and discover all of the previously undiagnosed cases, it's becoming clear that the death rate is much lower than previously estimated.
That part does seem to be good news, but we still have to be careful to not take this lightly. A lot of people who aren't dying are getting pneumonia and double pneumonia, and hospitalized and intubated*. This is going to be nasty for a lot of people. Also, a lot of people in the U. S. can be in the high risk category, many might not even know or realize it. I'm sure lots of the obese have some form of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, etc.

And then there's my poor 90-year-old mom, who would be pretty healthy for her age, except she lived with my father who smoked pretty heavily all those years until he died. Now she has a cough and whatever underlying lung problem with that. YOU DON'T WANT MY MOM TO GET THIS, DO YOU??? You'd like her, she's a sweet little lady. wink

(* Of course, there are so many articles about this out there that I can't find good numbers.)


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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Joe Muscara #3034405 03/21/20 11:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Joe Muscara
(* Of course, there are so many articles about this out there that I can't find good numbers.)
Almost as soon as I wrote that…

Quote
While most coronavirus patients can recover at home, about 20 percent of cases become severe enough to require hospitalization, according to a study in the New England Journal of Medicine.
That's going to put a heck of a strain on our hospital systems, and be difficult for both those hospitalized and their families, who probably won't be able to see them while they are being treated.


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034415 03/21/20 02:52 PM
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A low death rate doesn't mean anything if you are the one who dies.

And my neighbors who are otherwise very nice people but are addicted to extreme propaganda media cannot be reasoned with. They accuse anyone who is being rational as being influenced by 'fake news' (though they use more graphic terms).

Since they cannot accept logic (My mind is already made up - don't confuse me with the facts) I just avoid anything political with them. I can't teach them so there is no sense in irritating them.

Of course, they think I am as wrong as I think they are.

- - -

Yes we have to be cautions and follow the distancing, cleansing and avoidance guidelines.

When something spreads exponentially, the hospitals will be overloaded, and the doctors will have to decide who to treat and who to let die. It's a choice no doctor wants to make, but if you can't save them both, and you can save one, you have to choose.

So if nothing else, being extremely cautious spreads out the disease and lightens the load for the hospitals which in turn saves lives. Plus the longer you can keep from getting it, the more they will learn how to treat it.

Like the "Spanish Flu", a lot of people will die, and this will go down in the history books. No, it's not like just another flu pandemic. It's like the Spanish Flu in that there is neither a vaccine to prevent it or a method to cure it ---- yet.

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034422 03/21/20 04:24 PM
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Wells, here's my good news: The death rate from MERS, the Spanish flu, and some others was a lot higher. Covid-19 will probablynot go down in the history books as the flu with the highest death rate ever.

One thing that really irks me is when people say "Well look at all the people killed in car accidents, but they don't shut down the roads." Well, that's because if two cars smash into each other, cars for miles around don't also smash into each other a few minutes later. And if there is a multi-car pileup, you can bet there are police shutting down the roads, or at least diverting other cars from adding to the pile-up.

But as J. Dead said, there is so much we don't know. You can look at the WHO stats and see the escalation, but even though the numbers are based on the best info available, the quality of those numbers varies dramatically. They don't even have an entry for North Korea. The country is so shut off, that maybe it's not having any problems at all. Or, it may be overflowing with cases, and the regime doesn't want to let on to it...or doesn't even know what's happening. Many countries surely have more infections than are known. On one hand, that's good IF it means that the disease is milder than expected, so people think they just have a cold. On the other, if that means people are running around infecting other people, then that means overall, there are going to be a lot more cases, and they will impact those least capable of resisting it. And the idea that younger people generally don't get the disease is being questioned. It seems that for some of them, the virus just takes longer to develop. Who knows?

Even the experts who have spent their lifetime researching this kind of thing (and aren't to be discounted - where do people think polio vaccines and flu shots come from?) admit they have no idea whether, for example, the strain will hit in waves. At one point, there was a question of whether it would mutate. That question has been answered, because now there are two strains. So the next question is will there be more mutations, or is that it? Some think the virus will burn itself out end of May or so, but the CDC is preparing for an 18-month bout with it. Is it because they think it will last for 18 months? No, but they don't know, and it could.

The onset of this has been so fast that I don't think society has yet absorbed the implications. The real test on the death rate will come if there's a situation like in Italy, which has 3.2 hospital beds per 1,000 people, and the infections happened so fast that people who could have been saved weren't, because the tools necessary to save them weren't available. The US has 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people, and those 10% fewer beds could become really problematic. Already, hospitals are running out of supplies, and the virus is moving so fast manufacturing isn't catching up, despite claims to the contrary by people who aren't in the medical profession.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034558 03/22/20 03:43 PM
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We don't know how many will perish, as this hasn't peaked yet.

Medical science is better than it was a century ago, so more will definitely be saved. That's a good thing. And "flattening the curve" helps the doctors got to more people and minimizes the "which one should I save if I can't save both" decisions,

There are people with no symptoms out there, modern equivalents of "Typhoid Mary" and that's dangerous, but so many of us are hunkered down in our abodes, that helps a lot.

Plus warm, humid weather is coming. There is a chance that will weaken it's effect on us.

From our local paper (a USA Today affiliate):

... But scientists point with further hope to other studies the prove heat and humidity puts a damper on the spread of influenza viruses.

Low humidity, to the contrary, increases spread of those viruses. An animal study of influenza last year by Yale researchers found that low humidity obstructs immune response by preventing the tiny hair-like structures, or cilia, in airways cells from removing viruses and mucus. It also limited those cells' repair functions. Dry air also hampered the ability of infected cells to trigger the immune system to attack. ...


I live without my air conditioner (by choice) in Florida where it's already hot but not humid yet. That's coming soon.

It's another good reason to ditch the unhealthy, huge carbon footprint AC.

Notes


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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034590 03/22/20 07:39 PM
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I don't know this guy personally, but he's a local sound engineer. I might have run into him at an AES meeting. Double dose - gigs cancelled and he got the virus. Interesting that when he went in for testing, they already had him on an at-risk list, probably because he was on the crew list at a venue where someone else had the virus.

https://www.prosoundnetwork.com/live/live-sound-pro-recovering-from-covid-19

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034594 03/22/20 08:02 PM
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That's a pretty terrifying article, when you realize that as the numbers increase, hospitals will not be able to give everyone the same care they gave McGrath. My understanding is that in Italy, doctors have to decide who to treat because they can't treat everyone. People are going to die unnecessarily because the procedures needed to cure them will not be available. Being over 70, I guess I have a target on my back if I ever have to go in a hospital. Fortunately, I have no underlying conditions that I know about, and I may have already had a moderate case of it, so fingers crossed.

Of course, it's not the end of the world so it's important to keep that in perspective. The economy is cratering, but it will come back at some point. The vast majority of people will survive, and many won't experience problems worse than a bad cold or the traditional flu. But Covid-19 seems like a pretty arbitrary and capricious thing, not unlike the tornadoes that came through here - a house would be 100% destroyed except for maybe part of a wall, while the house next it was untouched. There's a shopping center where two of the buildings were flattened - and I mean flattened - and the rest were fine.

48 hours ago, the US had 19,400 confirmed cases. Today it's 38,900. Confirmed cases have doubled in two days. All we can do is act as intelligently as we can, avoid the world, and wait to see what's next.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034599 03/22/20 08:21 PM
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Along with the will-they-ever-slow-down? e-mail ads from Harbor Freight that I receive, today's message from the president said that they were donating N95 masks, face shields, and some Nitride gloves from their stores to hospitals who haven't been able to get them from their normal suppliers.

The letter: https://tinyurl.com/segp7gk

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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I just got laid off!

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034621 03/23/20 12:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
That's a pretty terrifying article, when you realize that as the numbers increase, hospitals will not be able to give everyone the same care they gave McGrath.

Scary stuff for sure.


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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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Originally Posted by J. Dead
So I shared this over on the KC as well:

http://www.musicrelief.org/

The local St. Louis music community has pulled together to support the industry including musicians and those affected in the service industry.

Basically they set up at a closed venue with no staff, one sound guy, and one videographer. They are letting musicians in on band at a time (no more than 10) and cleaning everything in between. They are live streaming all weekend for 28 hours. They've set up ways to donate money online during the event.


I shared that page on my local social media, hoping someone will run with that idea. Lord knows there would be no shortage of willing performers. I see some of the better local restaurant owners trying to do things to ease the financial strain on their employees, this seems as good an idea as any.


Please excuse my dangling "r"
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034695 03/23/20 03:14 PM
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I got this sent to me by a friend. It's a newspaper article, and I don't know if it's exaggerated or not. If so it describes just how serious this is.

A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients
“It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, Holy [*****], this is not the flu. Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube.”
by Lizzie Presser March 21, 5 a.m. EDT

As of Friday, Louisiana was reporting 479 confirmed cases of COVID-19, one of the highest numbers in the country. Ten people had died. The majority of cases are in New Orleans, which now has one confirmed case for every 1,000 residents. New Orleans had held Mardi Gras celebrations just two weeks before its first patient, with more than a million revelers on its streets.

I spoke to a respiratory therapist there, whose job is to ensure that patients are breathing well. He works in a medium-sized city hospital’s intensive care unit. (We are withholding his name and employer, as he fears retaliation.) Before the virus came to New Orleans, his days were pretty relaxed, nebulizing patients with asthma, adjusting oxygen tubes that run through the nose or, in the most severe cases, setting up and managing ventilators. His patients were usually older, with chronic health conditions and bad lungs.

Since last week, he’s been running ventilators for the sickest COVID-19 patients. Many are relatively young, in their 40s and 50s, and have minimal, if any, preexisting conditions in their charts. He is overwhelmed, stunned by the manifestation of the infection, both its speed and intensity. The ICU where he works has essentially become a coronavirus unit. He estimates that his hospital has admitted dozens of confirmed or presumptive coronavirus patients. About a third have ended up on ventilators.

His hospital had not prepared for this volume before the virus first appeared. One physician had tried to raise alarms, asking about negative pressure rooms and ventilators. Most staff concluded that he was overreacting. “They thought the media was overhyping it,” the respiratory therapist told me. “In retrospect, he was right to be concerned.”

He spoke to me by phone on Thursday about why, exactly, he has been so alarmed. His account has been condensed and edited for clarity.

“Reading about it in the news, I knew it was going to be bad, but we deal with the flu every year so I was thinking: Well, it’s probably not that much worse than the flu. But seeing patients with COVID-19 completely changed my perspective, and it’s a lot more frightening.”

This is knocking out what should be perfectly fit, healthy people.

“I have patients in their early 40s and, yeah, I was kind of shocked. I’m seeing people who look relatively healthy with a minimal health history, and they are completely wiped out, like they’ve been hit by a truck. This is knocking out what should be perfectly fit, healthy people. Patients will be on minimal support, on a little bit of oxygen, and then all of a sudden, they go into complete respiratory arrest, shut down and can’t breathe at all.”

They suddenly become unresponsive or go into respiratory failure.

“We have an observation unit in the hospital, and we have been admitting patients that had tested positive or are presumptive positive — these are patients that had been in contact with people who were positive. We go and check vitals on patients every four hours, and some are on a continuous cardiac monitor, so we see that their heart rate has a sudden increase or decrease, or someone goes in and sees that the patient is struggling to breathe or is unresponsive. That seems to be what happens to a lot of these patients: They suddenly become unresponsive or go into respiratory failure.”

The lung is filled with so much fluid, displacing where the air would normally be. “It’s called acute respiratory distress syndrome, ARDS. That means the lungs are filled with fluid. And it’s notable for the way the X-ray looks: The entire lung is basically whited out from fluid. Patients with ARDS are extremely difficult to oxygenate. It has a really high mortality rate, about 40%. The way to manage it is to put a patient on a ventilator. The additional pressure helps the oxygen go into the bloodstream.

“Normally, ARDS is something that happens over time as the lungs get more and more inflamed. But with this virus, it seems like it happens overnight. When you’re healthy, your lung is made up of little balloons. Like a tree is made out of a bunch of little leaves, the lung is made of little air sacs that are called the alveoli. When you breathe in, all of those little air sacs inflate, and they have capillaries in the walls, little blood vessels. The oxygen gets from the air in the lung into the blood so it can be carried around the body.

“Typically with ARDS, the lungs become inflamed. It’s like inflammation anywhere: If you have a burn on your arm, the skin around it turns red from additional blood flow. The body is sending it additional nutrients to heal. The problem is, when that happens in your lungs, fluid and extra blood starts going to the lungs. Viruses can injure cells in the walls of the alveoli, so the fluid leaks into the alveoli. A telltale sign of ARDS in an X-ray is what’s called ‘ground glass opacity,’ like an old-fashioned ground glass privacy window in a shower. And lungs look that way because fluid is white on an X-ray, so the lung looks like white ground glass, or sometimes pure white, because the lung is filled with so much fluid, displacing where the air would normally be.”

This severity ... is usually more typical of someone who has a near drowning experience ... or people who inhale caustic gas.

“With our coronavirus patients, once they’re on ventilators, most need about the highest settings that we can do. About 90% oxygen, and 16 of PEEP, positive end-expiratory pressure, which keeps the lung inflated. This is nearly as high as I’ve ever seen. The level we’re at means we are running out of options.

“In my experience, this severity of ARDS is usually more typical of someone who has a near drowning experience — they have a bunch of dirty water in their lungs — or people who inhale caustic gas. Especially for it to have such an acute onset like that. I’ve never seen a microorganism or an infectious process cause such acute damage to the lungs so rapidly. That was what really shocked me.”

You’ll try to rip the breathing tube out because you feel it is choking you ...

“It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, Holy [*****], this is not the flu. Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube and out of his mouth. The ventilator should have been doing the work of breathing but he was still gasping for air, moving his mouth, moving his body, struggling. We had to restrain him. With all the coronavirus patients, we’ve had to restrain them. They really hyperventilate, really struggle to breathe. When you’re in that mindstate of struggling to breathe and delirious with fever, you don’t know when someone is trying to help you, so you’ll try to rip the breathing tube out because you feel it is choking you, but you are drowning.

“When someone has an infection, I’m used to seeing the normal colors you’d associate with it: greens and yellows. The coronavirus patients with ARDS have been having a lot of secretions that are actually pink because they’re filled with blood cells that are leaking into their airways. They are essentially drowning in their own blood and fluids because their lungs are so full. So we’re constantly having to suction out the secretions every time we go into their rooms.”
I do not want to catch this.

“Before this, we were all joking. It’s grim humor. If you are exposed to the virus and test positive and go on quarantine, you get paid. We were all joking: I want to get the coronavirus because then I get a paid vacation from work. And once I saw these patients with it, I was like, Holy [*****], I do not want to catch this and I don’t want anyone I know to catch this.
About This Story

The medical details in this story were vetted by an infectious disease doctor, a cardiologist and an internist at three different hospitals. All of the information about ARDS, the condition that the respiratory therapist describes, was fact-checked against peer-reviewed articles and UpToDate, a resource for physicians to check current standards in care, clinical features, and expected complications and outcomes.
“I worked a long stretch of days last week, and I watched it go from this novelty to a serious issue. We had one or two patients at our hospital, and then five to 10 patients, and then 20 patients. Every day, the intensity kept ratcheting up. More patients, and the patients themselves are starting to get sicker and sicker. When it first started, we all had tons of equipment, tons of supplies, and as we started getting more patients, we started to run out. They had to ration supplies. At first we were trying to use one mask per patient. Then it was just: You get one mask for positive patients, another mask for everyone else. And now it’s just: You get one mask.

“I work 12-hour shifts. Right now, we are running about four times the number of ventilators than we normally have going. We have such a large volume of patients, but it’s really hard to find enough people to fill all the shifts. The caregiver-to-patient ratio has gone down, and you can’t spend as much time with each patient, you can’t adjust the vent settings as aggressively because you’re not going into the room as often. And we’re also trying to avoid going into the room as much as possible to reduce infection risk of staff and to conserve personal protective equipment.”

Even if you survive ... it can also do long-lasting damage.

“But we are trying to wean down the settings on the ventilator as much as possible, because you don’t want someone to be on the ventilator longer than they need to be. Your risk of mortality increases every day that you spend on a ventilator. The high pressures from high vent settings is pushing air into the lung and can overinflate those little balloons. They can pop. It can destroy the alveoli. Even if you survive ARDS, although some damage can heal, it can also do long-lasting damage to the lungs. They can get filled up with scar tissue. ARDS can lead to cognitive decline. Some people’s muscles waste away, and it takes them a long time to recover once they come off the ventilator.

“There is a very real possibility that we might run out of ICU beds and at that point I don’t know what happens if patients get sick and need to be intubated and put on a ventilator. Is that person going to die because we don’t have the equipment to keep them alive? What if it goes on for months and dozens of people die because we don’t have the ventilators?

“Hopefully we don’t get there, but if you only have one ventilator, and you have two patients, you’re going to have to go with the one who has a higher likelihood of surviving. And I’m afraid we’ll get to that point. I’ve heard that’s happening in Italy.”


Bob "Notes" Norton
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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034707 03/23/20 04:26 PM
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I heard some not-too-bright talk show host on the radio say that it's probably not going to be as bad as predicted, sure people will die, but they die anyway...and why are we taking these extreme measures and cratering our economy when so far, there have only been 450 deaths? To which he added if it does get as bad as people say, then we'll throw everything we have at it. I've heard this from other people as well, so here's the analogy I give them.

You're in the forest, and there's small brush fire. You think "it's not worth calling the fire department, having all those trucks and people show up would be overkill. It will probably just burn itself, and besides, it's supposed to rain later." But then the winds pick up, and all of a sudden, there's a conflagration. At that point, it's too late to bring in the fire department. Better to nip things in the bud.

Last edited by Anderton; 03/24/20 03:46 PM.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034816 03/24/20 01:34 PM
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With something that has life-threatening potential, I prefer to err on the side of caution.

I've never been one of those daredevil types.

Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
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Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034825 03/24/20 02:25 PM
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This is starting to get serious :

It took 67 days from the first reported case to reach the first 100,000 cases, 11 days for the second 100,000 and just four days for the third 100,000.


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034839 03/24/20 04:07 PM
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Americans have had it so good, for so long, that anyone from the man on the street to the highest reaches of government can't wrap their heads around this. The denial is palpable. It will sink in when people start having friends and relatives die. Until then, they'll think it won't happen to them.

The only good news is that world-wide, about 25% of the people who had active cases have recovered. That's a higher percentage than a week ago, so it means people are coming out on the other side alive. However of the total number of cases, 4% have died. So that means about 71% are in limbo, waiting to either recover or die.

If you want to know what's going on, don't listen to the news. You have the happy talk people who are idiots, and the gloom-and-doomers who take a morbid delight in contemplating the end of the world. If you read what epidemiologists and medical journals have to say, you'll get a much better idea of what's happening. My main takeaway is that the US is not doing what it should, with this patchwork quilt of some states locking down, and some states doing nothing. That just increases the odds that the virus will have multiple waves, and we'll have to deal with re-infections. Pretending that life is normal to help the economy will actually crater the economy more, because the whole scenario will take longer to play out. This isn't a political statement, it's one based on how viruses work.

I feel really bad for those whose partner got sick but they didn't, because they can't visit the hospital, see the person, stop by and cheer them up, nothing...all the while wondering whether they're going to get it too.

All we can do is wait, and try to take control of the situation by following the advice of people who have spent their lives studying these kinds of phenomena. They seem virtually unanimous in what they recommend.

Last edited by Anderton; 03/24/20 04:10 PM.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034850 03/24/20 04:39 PM
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Here's a piece of good news!! A lot of scientists have been really concerned that if the pandemic takes hold in India, it would have extremely negative, world-wide implications. But today, PM Narendra Modi ordered a complete lockdown for the entire country, and said the following:

"You have seen the worldwide situations arising from the coronavirus pandemic in the news. You have also seen how the most powerful nations have become helpless in the face of this pandemic," Modi said in a live televised address to the nation on Tuesday evening ahead of the deadline.

"The result of a two-month study of these countries and what the experts are saying is that social distancing is the only option to combat coronavirus. That is to remain apart from each other and stay confined to within your homes. There is no other way to remain safe from coronavirus. If we have to stop the spread, we have to break the cycle of infection."

This guy gets it. It starts at midnight, and will go for at least 21 days. Good luck to our friends in India in containing this thing.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034854 03/24/20 05:06 PM
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Agree that this isn't / shouldn't be political.

The virus does not vote, nor does it persuade.

I received an email yesterday from a friend, we were planning on starting her album this week.
She works in elder care, an Angel Of Mercy if you will.
Yesterday morning she found out she has been exposed to Covid-19. She'll be under self-quarantine as possible for the next 2 weeks. She has a history with asthma and was hospitalized recently with pneumonia so this is scary stuff indeed!

I say "as possible" because her Mom was diagnosed with dementia and since breast cancer is also suspected there will be more lab work. Mom has 2 months to find a new place to live and daughter is the sole relative in a position to help. Daughter is afraid she may have already exposed Mom to Covid-19.

To make things worse, with all the layoffs from businesses closing, there are not enough jobs to go around. That means she will probably be inclined to continue her current position, where more exposure is inevitable.

Between a rock and a hard place!!!

That could be any of us should fate intervene.

Be SAFE everybody!!!!


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034870 03/24/20 06:11 PM
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Yes. It doesn't just happen to other people. An acquaintance of mine can't breathe, coughs a lot, is running a fever, and has a prime underlying condition. She went to get tested yesterday; the results aren't back yet. I hope it's not covid-19, but frankly, she exposed herself to a crowd completely unnecessarily. Hopefully that one thoughtless moment won't turn out to be a death sentence.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
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Originally Posted by Anderton
The only good news is that world-wide, about 25% of the people who had active cases have recovered. That's a higher percentage than a week ago, so it means people are coming out on the other side alive. However of the total number of cases, 4% have died. So that means about 71% are in limbo, waiting to either recover or die.
80% or more people who contract it show little or no symptoms so a lot of positive people have never been tested. The death rate is based only on confirmed cases, so until a lot more people can be tested the death rate of 4% is very misleading.

Last edited by PrairieGuy; 03/24/20 06:35 PM.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034884 03/24/20 07:07 PM
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Yes, the death rate in theory is almost certainly not 4%. As stated, it's the percentage of active cases that have died. What's unknown is not counted as active cases. You can assume that among unknown cases, there are many more infections, and many more recoveries. Similarly, you can also assume that some covid-19 deaths have been attributed to pneumonia or other flu strains.

Still, to get the death rate down to 1%, you'd have to assume four times more people have been infected than the active cases, and all of the uncounted ones will recover. The former seems possible, the latter unlikely. You would also have to assume that the stats established by the current, known statistics won't change; that's possible, because we may have enough of a sampling at this point that those stats will remain valid. A lot of experts seem to think that when all is said and done, the death rate will hover around the 2% mark.

There is much we do not know, so at the moment, all we have to go by is what we do know. Also the death rate is an average, not an absolute. The death rate in various countries can be higher or lower than the average number. Note that I am not an epidemiologist, but I do know math so that's somewhat helpful smile

Also the numbers will change over time. As I write this, the death rate in the US is 12% due to the huge number of active cases compared to recovered cases (50,138 compared to 361). Because the onset of large numbers of cases has been so recent, it will take a while for these people to recover. So they can't be counted as recovered yet. However, bear in mind that even if all 50,000 current active cases recover and survive, there are still 622 dead people, so the percentage wouldn't change. To get the death rate down, we need to have enough testing to show large numbers of infected people recovering.

Last edited by Anderton; 03/24/20 07:09 PM.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034941 03/25/20 02:06 AM
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I would think that if the ratio of confirmed cases to known deaths remains somewhat constant (or drops) that the ratio would have some validity as a predictive number. Sure, some of those active cases will move into the known death category (and of course out of the active case tally.) But they will move at a certain rate. The known death figures should be quite solid. The actual tally of actual cases will only grow until actual testing confirms some sort of saturation point.

If we could just sample-test well defined statistical population groups, we could get some real predictive power I would think. But due to the need to confirm symptomatic people as positive for treatment purposes, the test equipment is going to be allocated to those situations and, from what I'm reading, not to generalized population studies (at least for a while.)

Because the current advice is, unless you feel seriously sick, just stay home and don't go to the doctor even if it's likely you have COVID-19. So that insures a large number of actual cases never becoming counted in the active case category (unless generalized overall population testing comes online...)

That is the current advice I'm seeing - is it different from other vantage points, other info sources than what I'm seeing?

nat