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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034008 03/18/20 09:08 PM
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I do have VPN access to my largest commercial client, and can do some computer and network stuff remotely. Otherwise, I'm staying at home like recommended. Our church will be streaming the service on FB, with no one there except the pastors and worship leader. The praise team has been told to stay home (singers and musicians). I may stream my bible study lesson if I can work out all the details.

Wife and I got out first time since Sunday, about a mile to Food Lion, had placed an on-line order, lady got the signature for the credit card on a tablet, then loaded the groceries in the car. Walmart grocery here had so many orders lined up already yesterday that it was over a week until next opening.

I'm not panicking at all, but I'm also not stupid. Washed hand quite thoroughly with soap and hot water after unloading. All bars and restaurants in NC are take-out only, at least for a while. I happen to agree, and frankly the beaches in Florida and Myrtle Beach should be closed by government order. I had no idea what a "novel" virus was until this morning - just had seen the term. It means one that had not affected humans at all previously, was found only in some sort of animal, mutated enough to infect a single human (or very few), then mutated there enough to pass from one human to another. The President is correct in saying that this is a "war." It is also one that we can't afford to lose. My wife is retired RN, one daughter is MSN working at local hospital. If there are too many bad cases at once, wartime type triage has to be used when cases overwhelm equipment and personnel available.

I don't like news media trying to terrorize people (or place blame - right now all we need to know is that it has happened), but this is a serious matter. I'm also old enough (77) to have gone through some serious matters before. I was a kid when the word polio was very fearful. We are going to need a World War II type of working together and bearing some hardships to make it.


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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
MoodyBluesKeys #3034010 03/18/20 09:13 PM
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Originally Posted by MoodyBluesKeys
We are going to need a World War II type of working together and bearing some hardships to make it.
My friend Martha called and raised an interesting point: for the first time, the entire world is on the same page. Maybe that will lead to something good.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034018 03/18/20 09:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
The problem is we don't know yet what will turn out to be prudent and what will turn out to be stupid. Certainly, cases continue to increase, but the question is when will it peak...if it peaks this week, we're in pretty good shape. If it peaks in May, it's a problem.

I've heard quite a few opinions that, well, only a small percentage of people will die so we don't have to screw up the economy for everyone else in the process. So the question I have is suppose you went into a casino, and were told that you could win lots of money just like before - in fact the odds were now 97% in your favor that you'd win at least something! However...if you lost, there was a 3% chance you would be killed painfully over the course of a week or so. I like the idea of 97% odds, but I still don't think I'd go into that casino.


The obvious problem is that we can only know the results of the course of action that is taken.
We can speculate on what would have happened "if" but it's just a bunch of jibber jabber - meaningless.

I have zero expertise in communicable diseases and public safety. Even if I had a great idea it is doubtful it would get any consideration.
I'm used to being a loner, was not especially social when we were gigging all the time.
If I stay well, I should get a considerable backlog of projects reduced to something less insane.


There is never enough time to be in a hurry...
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034020 03/18/20 10:08 PM
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They've banned live music here - saying it "draws crowds" (which we do).

The entire tourism industry is shut down, bars, restaurants are take-out only, malls and downtowns are ghost towns, museums are shuttered, public beaches are closed, and that means a lot of other people are out of work.

That means I'm unemployed probably until at least August, and if the band ban lifts then, I probably still won't find work until mid-October as from August to mid October is historically dead time here in South Florida.

There is a bright side (I guess). With no work, and living on savings for an undetermined amount of time, we're being frugal, and not going out much. Economic self-isolation. That'll probably keep us from getting sick.

So I guess we'll spend the time creating more aftermarket style "disks" and fake "disks" for Band-in-a-Box.

This too will pass and most of us will survive.

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Bob "Notes" Norton
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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034049 03/19/20 02:16 AM
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Sadly, dying isn't necessarily the worst part. Lots of the 20% (I guess that's still the number) are getting pneumonia and that is hitting them pretty hard. Even if you don't die from that, the recovery is pretty rough and having it is bad, too.

I was out today and had a few folks I didn't know around acting like $#!^ was normal, meaning they didn't keep their distance and they walked right by me or whatever before I had a chance to move away. That $#!^ really pisses me off. *You* may think there's nothing to worry about, but how about respecting my decisions to keep a distance???? mad


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Joe Muscara #3034060 03/19/20 03:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Joe Muscara
I was out today and had a few folks I didn't know around acting like $#!^ was normal, meaning they didn't keep their distance and they walked right by me or whatever before I had a chance to move away. That $#!^ really pisses me off. *You* may think there's nothing to worry about, but how about respecting my decisions to keep a distance???? mad

The problem is ignorance. People don't know how to do math, they don't know what "exponential" means, they don't know about compound interest. They say "Well there are only a few hundred people dead, what's the big deal?" They simply don't understand the concept of no one having immunity when something hadn't existed before, and the problems of a disease being highly contagious.

Even the under-40s who weren't worried because they thought the disease wouldn't affect them are finding that the process simply takes longer with younger people. There is so much we don't know, but we're all getting on-the-job training. In the last week, the global death toll was 4,600, tonight it's over 8,900. It was only about two weeks ago there were claimed to be only 15 confirmed cases in the US.

The good news: infections in China are slowing down, so at least we have some idea of how long this thing takes to run its course, at least for a first wave.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034100 03/19/20 02:16 PM
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As with many others I just had 3 gigs cancelled within 3 weeks. I am to a large part 'retired', and these were all retirement community gigs. I rotate between 4 plus such communities and a few scatter restaurant and private gigs. Three of those retirement communities had the cancellations I just mentioned, and I have a fourth community's gig next week, and understandably, anticipate that one will also not occur.
These for the most part were paying as much if not more than cafe/restaurant gigs

I have a son that's a full time musician but also an artist...his gigs have all but dried up, and he's trying to focus on some commercial art work...as he might find that available.

There is a massive amount of people; waiters, musicians, artists, street vendors, other restaurant works, venue/concert staff, etc. (even 'bouncers') who's income stream is almost immediately drying up....they are certainly cutting back on anything but essentials, and trying to figure out how to scrape up some income

There have been 'talks' about loans being available to 'small businesses'....not sure how that might help the self employed 'gigging' folks.
...yes we've heard 'some checks are coming' - a little bit to plug the hole in the dyke

As has been mentioned, we need to largest extent 'hunker down', hoping that if we are -ALL- doing this, the spread of this virus might be minimize, and in some ways be controllable
- there appears to be no 'good' answer at present...

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034108 03/19/20 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
<...snip...>
The problem is ignorance. People don't know how to do math, they don't know what "exponential" means, they don't know about compound interest. They say "Well there are only a few hundred people dead, what's the big deal?" They simply don't understand the concept of no one having immunity when something hadn't existed before, and the problems of a disease being highly contagious.<...>

Plus a certain media outlets disguised as news are downplaying the severity of the problem, telling people it's a hoax, overblown, nothing more than the flu, and an evil political plot. The propaganda is very good, and too many people believe it.

I've heard them talking about that. However, I think the tide is turning and those will get a taste of crow for dinner.

Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034217 03/20/20 02:27 AM
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The entire state of CA is now on lockdown.

Link

dB

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034223 03/20/20 02:54 AM
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Confirmed cases in the US have almost doubled in the past 24 hours.

I mentioned this to a few people and they downplayed it, saying "oh, well they're testing more people, of course more cases are going to show up."

Well, that doesn't put a smile on my face. If that's the case, it means a ton of infected people are running around, and we don't even know it...so that means it's probably spreading faster than anyone realizes. I 'm not looking forward to what happens in the next 10 days. I'm sure as hell not going anywhere in the outside world, just in case I have it.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034336 03/20/20 07:53 PM
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Yeah, the best way I've found to keep up with the numbers is on NPR. They have a sort of permanent article that's headed by a big map of the U.S. - click on it and you'll get the latest numbers of total confirmed cases and total deaths, and a breakdown state by state.

Craig's comment about the doubling of confirmed cases is reflected in the article - some 7,000 on Wednesday, some 13,300 on Thursday. (rounding due to memory margin of error:)

They tend to update the numbers around 8:30pm - Eastern I guess....

nat

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034340 03/20/20 08:04 PM
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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034341 03/20/20 08:04 PM
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So I shared this over on the KC as well:

http://www.musicrelief.org/

The local St. Louis music community has pulled together to support the industry including musicians and those affected in the service industry.

Basically they set up at a closed venue with no staff, one sound guy, and one videographer. They are letting musicians in on band at a time (no more than 10) and cleaning everything in between. They are live streaming all weekend for 28 hours. They've set up ways to donate money online during the event.


Last edited by J. Dead; 03/20/20 08:07 PM.

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Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034348 03/20/20 08:50 PM
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That's very cool. Thanks for making us aware of this, and hopefully inspiring others.

And yes, I donated smile

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034363 03/20/20 11:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
That's very cool. Thanks for making us aware of this, and hopefully inspiring others.

And yes, I donated smile

Yeah, even though it's local, as small as St. Louis is, it just shows what can be done in every market if people just pull together and make it happen.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034368 03/21/20 12:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton

I want to make sure this doesn't get overlooked. Confirmed US cases is closing in on 20,000. Two days ago it was 5,500. A deluge of corona virus cases are hitting New York hospitals, and we are far from the peak.

At this point, we no longer need to speculate whether the corona virus will follow an exponential rate of infection; it's happening now, in real time.

Walking around the devastation of the tornadoes in Nashville was surreal, but once it hit, it was done and it's not going to take out the rest of the city. This is different. Please, if you local government isn't smart enough to mandate that you stay at home, choose to do so yourself.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034370 03/21/20 01:13 AM
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I have a few neighbors who listen to politicized propaganda stations disguised as news media who swear either it's no worse than the flu, or it's a plot to take down the USA.

It's neither of those.

It's an infectious disease that can be spread by people with little or no symptoms or in it's long incubation phase before symptoms show up.

If one person infects two and each of those infects two the rise is exponential.

Yes it is like the flu, the 1918 "Spanish Flu" where there was no flu vaccine yet. 50-100 million died when the world population was about 1/4 what it is now.

I'm completely out of work, all my gigs have been cancelled, so I'm staying home as much as possible. I have plenty of work I can do around here.

Of course, being self-employed, that also means no income, but I'm sure others on this thread are in the same boat.

It's more important NOT to catch the disease, as with the for-profit health care system in the US, even if you do survive, you could very well spend more money than you would have lost by staying home.

Those who don't take it seriously might Darwin themselves out.

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Bob "Notes" Norton
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The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Notes_Norton #3034377 03/21/20 03:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Notes_Norton
I have a few neighbors who listen to politicized propaganda stations disguised as news media who swear either it's no worse than the flu, or it's a plot to take down the USA.

Maybe show them what's in Italics below, from a reader of Bob Lefsetz's newsletter...and mention that viruses have no political affiliation. They just want to infect as many people as possible so that they can propagate the species.

This is what is chilling to me.

FOUR weeks ago Italy had three known cases of the virus.

TWO weeks ago it had developed into 1700 cases and thirty four deaths. That did not seem too alarming to most people - TWO weeks ago

NOW there are 41,000 cases and 3400 deaths including 900 deaths in the last two days in Italy.

In the US today- 14,000 cases and 190 deaths.
[Edit - as of tonight, a day later, it's 19,650 with 283 deaths]

Where will we be in two weeks??


Admittedly Italy may be an extreme case, because my understanding is that the part of Italy being hit so hard has an older-than-average demographic, but still...

Last edited by Anderton; 03/21/20 03:09 AM.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034393 03/21/20 05:18 AM
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There's a lot of misinformation, but part of it is because there is still a lot we don't know. As they continue to gather data, the facts change.

I think at this point the important thing leading to what seem like otherwise drastic measures is just the fact that it is very contagious. The fact that so many people may not even have symptoms means that there is the possibility of it exponentially spreading without the kinds of measures we are taking. That said, as we do more testing and discover all of the previously undiagnosed cases, it's becoming clear that the death rate is much lower than previously estimated. That doesn't mean we shouldn't still continue with the precautions, just that it's some good news.

People are getting so sensitive that you can't give a shred of good new or else you're accused of being irresponsible. Then there's the other side loading up their garage with toilet paper. Everybody just settle down, be responsible, check out and verify info as it comes out, don't politicize or shame people, just try to be informed, educate, share, be responsible, and we'll all get through this,


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034401 03/21/20 07:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
And yes, I donated smile

Just realized I forgot to say THANK YOU! It is very much appreciated!

I know the guys who organized this - played with one of the guys a bunch, went to high school with one of the sound guys as well as the "cardinal cowboy" and know as well as have worked with and hired the sound guy. SO, if anybody is interested in doing something similar and needs any logistical details, I can probably find out anything you need to know. Just hit me up.


Dan

Acoustic/Electric stringed instruments ranging from 4 to 230 strings, hammered, picked, fingered, slapped, and plucked. Analog and Digital Electronic instruments, reeds, and throat/mouth.
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
J. Dead #3034404 03/21/20 11:32 AM
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Originally Posted by J. Dead
That said, as we do more testing and discover all of the previously undiagnosed cases, it's becoming clear that the death rate is much lower than previously estimated.
That part does seem to be good news, but we still have to be careful to not take this lightly. A lot of people who aren't dying are getting pneumonia and double pneumonia, and hospitalized and intubated*. This is going to be nasty for a lot of people. Also, a lot of people in the U. S. can be in the high risk category, many might not even know or realize it. I'm sure lots of the obese have some form of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, etc.

And then there's my poor 90-year-old mom, who would be pretty healthy for her age, except she lived with my father who smoked pretty heavily all those years until he died. Now she has a cough and whatever underlying lung problem with that. YOU DON'T WANT MY MOM TO GET THIS, DO YOU??? You'd like her, she's a sweet little lady. wink

(* Of course, there are so many articles about this out there that I can't find good numbers.)


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Joe Muscara #3034405 03/21/20 11:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Joe Muscara
(* Of course, there are so many articles about this out there that I can't find good numbers.)
Almost as soon as I wrote that…

Quote
While most coronavirus patients can recover at home, about 20 percent of cases become severe enough to require hospitalization, according to a study in the New England Journal of Medicine.
That's going to put a heck of a strain on our hospital systems, and be difficult for both those hospitalized and their families, who probably won't be able to see them while they are being treated.


The great thing about music is that there's always something to learn. The frustrating thing about music is that there's always something to learn!
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034415 03/21/20 02:52 PM
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A low death rate doesn't mean anything if you are the one who dies.

And my neighbors who are otherwise very nice people but are addicted to extreme propaganda media cannot be reasoned with. They accuse anyone who is being rational as being influenced by 'fake news' (though they use more graphic terms).

Since they cannot accept logic (My mind is already made up - don't confuse me with the facts) I just avoid anything political with them. I can't teach them so there is no sense in irritating them.

Of course, they think I am as wrong as I think they are.

- - -

Yes we have to be cautions and follow the distancing, cleansing and avoidance guidelines.

When something spreads exponentially, the hospitals will be overloaded, and the doctors will have to decide who to treat and who to let die. It's a choice no doctor wants to make, but if you can't save them both, and you can save one, you have to choose.

So if nothing else, being extremely cautious spreads out the disease and lightens the load for the hospitals which in turn saves lives. Plus the longer you can keep from getting it, the more they will learn how to treat it.

Like the "Spanish Flu", a lot of people will die, and this will go down in the history books. No, it's not like just another flu pandemic. It's like the Spanish Flu in that there is neither a vaccine to prevent it or a method to cure it ---- yet.

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Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034422 03/21/20 04:24 PM
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Wells, here's my good news: The death rate from MERS, the Spanish flu, and some others was a lot higher. Covid-19 will probablynot go down in the history books as the flu with the highest death rate ever.

One thing that really irks me is when people say "Well look at all the people killed in car accidents, but they don't shut down the roads." Well, that's because if two cars smash into each other, cars for miles around don't also smash into each other a few minutes later. And if there is a multi-car pileup, you can bet there are police shutting down the roads, or at least diverting other cars from adding to the pile-up.

But as J. Dead said, there is so much we don't know. You can look at the WHO stats and see the escalation, but even though the numbers are based on the best info available, the quality of those numbers varies dramatically. They don't even have an entry for North Korea. The country is so shut off, that maybe it's not having any problems at all. Or, it may be overflowing with cases, and the regime doesn't want to let on to it...or doesn't even know what's happening. Many countries surely have more infections than are known. On one hand, that's good IF it means that the disease is milder than expected, so people think they just have a cold. On the other, if that means people are running around infecting other people, then that means overall, there are going to be a lot more cases, and they will impact those least capable of resisting it. And the idea that younger people generally don't get the disease is being questioned. It seems that for some of them, the virus just takes longer to develop. Who knows?

Even the experts who have spent their lifetime researching this kind of thing (and aren't to be discounted - where do people think polio vaccines and flu shots come from?) admit they have no idea whether, for example, the strain will hit in waves. At one point, there was a question of whether it would mutate. That question has been answered, because now there are two strains. So the next question is will there be more mutations, or is that it? Some think the virus will burn itself out end of May or so, but the CDC is preparing for an 18-month bout with it. Is it because they think it will last for 18 months? No, but they don't know, and it could.

The onset of this has been so fast that I don't think society has yet absorbed the implications. The real test on the death rate will come if there's a situation like in Italy, which has 3.2 hospital beds per 1,000 people, and the infections happened so fast that people who could have been saved weren't, because the tools necessary to save them weren't available. The US has 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people, and those 10% fewer beds could become really problematic. Already, hospitals are running out of supplies, and the virus is moving so fast manufacturing isn't catching up, despite claims to the contrary by people who aren't in the medical profession.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034558 03/22/20 03:43 PM
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We don't know how many will perish, as this hasn't peaked yet.

Medical science is better than it was a century ago, so more will definitely be saved. That's a good thing. And "flattening the curve" helps the doctors got to more people and minimizes the "which one should I save if I can't save both" decisions,

There are people with no symptoms out there, modern equivalents of "Typhoid Mary" and that's dangerous, but so many of us are hunkered down in our abodes, that helps a lot.

Plus warm, humid weather is coming. There is a chance that will weaken it's effect on us.

From our local paper (a USA Today affiliate):

... But scientists point with further hope to other studies the prove heat and humidity puts a damper on the spread of influenza viruses.

Low humidity, to the contrary, increases spread of those viruses. An animal study of influenza last year by Yale researchers found that low humidity obstructs immune response by preventing the tiny hair-like structures, or cilia, in airways cells from removing viruses and mucus. It also limited those cells' repair functions. Dry air also hampered the ability of infected cells to trigger the immune system to attack. ...


I live without my air conditioner (by choice) in Florida where it's already hot but not humid yet. That's coming soon.

It's another good reason to ditch the unhealthy, huge carbon footprint AC.

Notes


Bob "Notes" Norton
Owner, Norton Music http://www.nortonmusic.com
Style and Fake disks for Band-in-a-Box
The Sophisticats http://www.s-cats.com >^. .^< >^. .^<
Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034590 03/22/20 07:39 PM
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I don't know this guy personally, but he's a local sound engineer. I might have run into him at an AES meeting. Double dose - gigs cancelled and he got the virus. Interesting that when he went in for testing, they already had him on an at-risk list, probably because he was on the crew list at a venue where someone else had the virus.

https://www.prosoundnetwork.com/live/live-sound-pro-recovering-from-covid-19

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034594 03/22/20 08:02 PM
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That's a pretty terrifying article, when you realize that as the numbers increase, hospitals will not be able to give everyone the same care they gave McGrath. My understanding is that in Italy, doctors have to decide who to treat because they can't treat everyone. People are going to die unnecessarily because the procedures needed to cure them will not be available. Being over 70, I guess I have a target on my back if I ever have to go in a hospital. Fortunately, I have no underlying conditions that I know about, and I may have already had a moderate case of it, so fingers crossed.

Of course, it's not the end of the world so it's important to keep that in perspective. The economy is cratering, but it will come back at some point. The vast majority of people will survive, and many won't experience problems worse than a bad cold or the traditional flu. But Covid-19 seems like a pretty arbitrary and capricious thing, not unlike the tornadoes that came through here - a house would be 100% destroyed except for maybe part of a wall, while the house next it was untouched. There's a shopping center where two of the buildings were flattened - and I mean flattened - and the rest were fine.

48 hours ago, the US had 19,400 confirmed cases. Today it's 38,900. Confirmed cases have doubled in two days. All we can do is act as intelligently as we can, avoid the world, and wait to see what's next.

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034599 03/22/20 08:21 PM
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Along with the will-they-ever-slow-down? e-mail ads from Harbor Freight that I receive, today's message from the president said that they were donating N95 masks, face shields, and some Nitride gloves from their stores to hospitals who haven't been able to get them from their normal suppliers.

The letter: https://tinyurl.com/segp7gk

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034619 03/22/20 11:52 PM
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I just got laid off!

Re: Anyone Been Affected by the Coronavirus?
Anderton #3034621 03/23/20 12:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Anderton
That's a pretty terrifying article, when you realize that as the numbers increase, hospitals will not be able to give everyone the same care they gave McGrath.

Scary stuff for sure.


A reason why I collect old keyboards is that I feel partly responsible for doing it, responsible for preserving history and being a custodian for these things
Plus, old gear has a story. I like that.
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